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A Valuation of Norwegian Air Shuttle Asa

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A Valuation of Norwegian Air Shuttle Asa A VALUATION OF NORWEGIAN AIR SHUTTLE ASA Master thesis MSc Accounting, Strategy and Control Copenhagen Business School Author: Line Marie Kjellstad Johansen CPR: XX XX Concentration: Accounting, Strategy and Control Supervisor: Thomas Ryttersgaard Number of standard pages: 80 (174 592 Characters) Executive summary The main objective of this thesis has been to determine the theoretical value of the share of Norwegian Air Shuttle ASA per 04.12.2013. The valuation was performed through a strategic and financial analysis that formed the foundation for a forecasted budget of the company’s future financial performance. This budget was then used as the basis for the valuation of NAS’ share. The analyses showed that the airline industry is heavily influenced by the development in the global economy and is marginal in terms of profitability. The industry is also characterized as highly competitive and many players targets the same customers. This implies a need for a sustainable competitive advantage to survive the fierce competition. The analyses revealed that Norwegian Air Shuttle has a higher cost level and lower load factor than the international airlines that apply the same business model. This was especially significant in terms of labor costs. Norwegian Air Shuttle has recently changed the organizational structure of the company and established a new subsidiary in the EU. These actions has been undertaken so the company can gain the necessary traffic rights abroad and ensure growth in the future. With this restructuring, the company hopes to use foreign labor on the newly launched long-haul routes. The ultimate objective is to compete on an equal ground as the international competitors with regards to cost level. The valuation was conducted through a present value approach, more precisely the Discounted Cash Flow model, and was evaluated through a sensitivity analysis. Additionally a relative valuation approach and liquidation approach was conducted. The theoretical value of Norwegian Air Shuttles share was found to be NOK 290 per 04.12.2013. The share was traded at NOK 232 on Oslo Stock Exchange the same date which indicates that the share is undervalued by the market compared to the finding in this thesis. Table of Content CHAPTER 1 - Introduction .................................................................................................................6 1.2 Methodology .............................................................................................................................6 1.2.1 Data Collection ...................................................................................................................6 1.2.2 Research design ..................................................................................................................7 1.3 Limitations ................................................................................................................................7 CHAPTER 2 – Presentation of the company and airline industry .........................................................8 2.1 The history of Norwegian Air Shuttle ASA ...............................................................................8 2.2 The airline industry ...................................................................................................................9 2.3 Vision, business idea and strategic framework ......................................................................... 11 2.3.1 Mission and strategic framework ...................................................................................... 11 2.3.2 Business model ................................................................................................................. 12 2.3.3 Core activities................................................................................................................... 12 2.4 Organization and Ownership ................................................................................................... 13 2.4.1 Organization ..................................................................................................................... 13 2.4.2 Ownership structure .......................................................................................................... 14 2.5 Peer group ........................................................................................................................... 14 2.5.1 Ryanair ............................................................................................................................. 14 5.2.2 EasyJet ............................................................................................................................. 15 5.2.3 SAS .................................................................................................................................. 15 5.2.4 Finnair .............................................................................................................................. 16 CHAPTER 3 – Strategic Analysis ..................................................................................................... 17 3.1 External analysis ..................................................................................................................... 17 3.2 PET-analysis ........................................................................................................................... 17 3.2.1 Political and legal factors .................................................................................................. 17 3.2.2 Economic factors .............................................................................................................. 18 3.2.2 Technological ................................................................................................................... 21 3.3 Analysis of NAS’ competitive environment ............................................................................. 22 3.3.1 Bargaining power of suppliers .......................................................................................... 22 3.3.2 Bargaining power of buyers .............................................................................................. 24 3.3.3 The threat of new entrants ................................................................................................. 25 3.3.4 The threat of substitutes .................................................................................................... 27 3.3.5 Rivalry among existing firms ............................................................................................ 29 3.3.6 Summary of Porters 5 forces ............................................................................................. 29 3.4 Internal analysis ...................................................................................................................... 30 3.5 Key industry measures analysis ............................................................................................... 30 3.5.1 Load factor ....................................................................................................................... 30 3.5.2 Yield ................................................................................................................................ 31 3.5.3 Unit cost ........................................................................................................................... 33 3.5.4 Operating costs ................................................................................................................. 34 3.5.5 Labor costs ....................................................................................................................... 35 3.5.6 Fuel costs ......................................................................................................................... 37 3.5.7 Other costs ....................................................................................................................... 38 3.6 Internal level analysis .............................................................................................................. 39 3.6.1 Cost leadership ................................................................................................................. 39 3.6.2 Differentiation .................................................................................................................. 39 3.6.3 Focus................................................................................................................................ 40 3.7 SWOT analysis ....................................................................................................................... 40 3.7.1 Strengths and weaknesses ................................................................................................. 40 3.7.2 Opportunities and threats .................................................................................................. 41 CHAPTER 4 – Financial analysis ..................................................................................................... 42 4.1 Quality of the financial statements ........................................................................................... 42 4.2 Reformulation of the income statement and balance sheet ........................................................ 42 42.2 Revenues ........................................................................................................................... 43 4.2.3 Operating expenses ..........................................................................................................
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