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By ZARMINA BALOCH PAKISTAN’S POST 9/11 AFGHAN POLICY: CHALLENGES AND PROSPECTS (2001-2014) By ZARMINA BALOCH AREA STUDY CENTRE (RUSSIA, CHINA & CENTRAL ASIA) UNIVERSITY OF PESHAWAR (AUGUST, 2018) PAKISTAN’S POST 9/11 AFGHAN POLICY: CHALLENGES AND PROSPECTS (2001-2014) By ZARMINA BALOCH A dissertation submitted to the Area Study Centre (Russia, China, & Central Asia) University of Peshawar in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the Degree of Doctor of Philosophy i DECLARATION I hereby declare that this dissertation is the outcome of my Individual research and that it has not been submitted to any other University for the grant of a degree. December 2018 ZARMINA BALOCH ii DEDICATION I dedicate this research work to my parents, Husband, Children and all family members iii ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The preparation of this thesis owes its thanks to many individuals and to institutions, without whose guidance and help, it would have been difficult to complete the thesis. For financial support, my acknowledgement goes to my husband Muhammad Faiq Ahmad Khan. I owe special gratitude to my supervisor, Professor Dr. Ijaz Khan, under whose guidance, supervision and direction, the thesis took the shape, which it has today. Professors including current Director Prof. Dr Shabir Khan and Former Director Prof. Dr Sarfarz Khan and friends in the Area Study Center (Russia, China & Central Asia), University of Peshawar have been invaluable in their support and assistance, especially Mr Sahar Gull whose assistance and expert help format it. Special thanks go to colleague Dr. Asif Saleem for his guidance during my work. My dear family deserves special mention in this wonderful journey. My husband, my wonderful children Muhmmad Musa Ahmad Khan and Hannah Khan and my mom in law Sajjida Malik were enthusiastic supporters in this endeavor. Special thanks to my parents, Abid Baloch and Nagina Qazi, my siblings Dayyam Baloch and Samrina Baloch, sister in Law Mashal Dayyam, my nephews Ibrahim, Sikandar and Hayam whose moral support made my tough journey possible, who gave their unflinching support, stood by me through the thick and thin of this journey and patiently understood my preoccupation with my work. Thank you all. iv ABSTRACT Pakistan after 11thSeptember, 2001 changed its policy of supporting Taliban Government in Afghanistan and joined US led Global War on Terror. US military action in Afghanistan started in October 2001; this operation pushed the militants and operatives of Al-Qaida from Afghanistan into Pakistan’s Tribal Areas. Thus, turning it into a safe sanctuary for foreign militants and also provided base for Al-Qaeda and Afghan Taliban, these militants used the porous Pak-Afghan border to attack US and Western forces in Afghanistan. Though Pakistan became a close ally of US and its allies in GWOT in Afghanistan and was given the status of a “major non-NATO ally” for its important role in supporting US forces to get hold of Al-Qaida and its supporters. However, Afghan government (established in 2001 in Bonn Conference), Western and international community began to blame Pakistan for allowing and supporting militant groups and for encouraging cross-border attacks. This mistrust ruined Pakistan’s relations with Afghanistan. India subsequently took advantage of situation and became a major actor in Afghanistan through investing and rebuilding projects and started growing its economic and political influence in Afghanistan. Pakistan’s post 9/11 Afghan policy designed to protect Pakistan from any external threat perception and supported Afghanistan politically, financially and hosted millions of Afghan refugees but despite these efforts distrust between both the neighbours, Pakistan and Afghanistan and excessive Indian presence in Afghanistan was a major strategic defeat for Pakistan. It gave rise to security threat perception of Pakistan in its neighbour hood which it always wanted to counter. The flaws in Pakistan’s Policies in responding to the militancy post 9/11 are its entire dependence on the hard options and neglecting peace inside the state. This thesis develops its argument for the appropriate approach to the regional and internal security of Pakistan. This Thesis also shows to embrace the solutions for eliminating the root cause of militancy and extremism on which terrorism feeds and grows. v TABLE OF CONTENTS DECLARATION II DEDICATION III ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS IV ABSTRACT V LIST OF ACRONYMS X GLOSSARY XIII CHAPTER ONE 1 INTRODUCTION 1 1.1INTRODUCTION 1 1.2 SECURITY 6 1.2. ARealist perspective: 6 1.2. A.I Balance of Power Theory: 6 1.2. A.II Balance of Threat: 7 1.2. B .IDemocratic Peace Theory: 11 1.2. B. IIComplex interdependence: 12 1.2. A.VI Non-Traditionalist: 8 1.3 SOCIAL CONSTRUCTIVISM 12 1.2. A .III Clash of Civilization: 8 1.4 NATIONAL SECURITY 18 1.4.A. Security Concerns of Nations 18 1.5THREAT 19 1.6SECURITY THREAT PERCEPTION 21 1.7LITERATURE REVIEW 24 1.7JUSTIFICATION OF THE STUDY 41 1.8AIMS AND OBJECTIVES 42 1.9 RESEARCH QUESTIONS 43 1.9.A HYPOTHESIS 43 1.10METHODOLOGY 44 vi 1.11TENTATIVE CHAPTERS 46 REFERENCES 49 CHAPTER TWO 57 PAKISTAN’S FOREIGN POLICY TOWARDS AFGHANISTAN: A HISTORICAL BACKDROP (1947-2001) 57 INTRODUCTION: 57 2.1. SECURITY THREAT PERCEPTION OF PAKISTAN: 58 2.1 SECURITY THREAT PERCEPTION OF PAKISTAN FROM INDIA: 58 2.2 SECURITY THREAT PERCEPTION FROM AFGHANISTAN: 67 2.3 FOUR PHASES OF PAKISTAN-AFGHANISTAN RELATIONS: 70 2.3.a Phase I: Beginning of Poor Relationship (1947-1979) 70 2.3.b Phase 2: US Proxy War (1979-1992) 79 2.3.b.i Afghan Jihad during Soviet War and its Impact on security of Pakistan: 84 2.4 PHASE 3: RISE OF TALIBAN IN AFGHANISTAN 92 2.3.4. a Pakistan’s pro-Taliban Policy and its Strategic Interests: 98 2.3.5 Pakistan Afghan Policy during Musharraf era pre 9/11: 100 CONCLUSION: 103 REFERENCES: 107 CHAPTER 3 117 PAKISTAN AFGHAN POLICY: POST 9/11 ERROR! BOOKMARK NOT DEFINED. INTRODUCTION ERROR! BOOKMARK NOT DEFINED. 3.1 CHANGE IN PAKISTAN’S FOREIGN POLICY TOWARDS AFGHANISTAN POST 9/11 ERROR! BOOKMARK NOT DEFINED. 3.2 PAKISTAN’S AFGHAN POLICY DURING DEMOCRATIC ERA 2008-2014:ERROR! BOOKMARK NOT DEFINED. 3.3 FACTORS CONTRIBUTING TO CHANGE IN PAKISTAN’S AFGHAN POLICY: ERROR! BOOKMARK NOT DEFINED. 3.3.1With us or against us: Error! Bookmark not defined. 3.3.2Indian Factor in the Post 9/11 change of Pakistan’s Afghan policy: Error! Bookmark not defined. vii 3.3.3FRAGILE PAKISTAN’S ECONOMY: ERROR! BOOKMARK NOT DEFINED. 3.3.4 Counter Security Threat Perception: Error! Bookmark not defined. 3.4 SUPPORT AND CO-OPERATION PROVIDED BY PAKISTAN TO US IN GWOT: ERROR! BOOKMARK NOT DEFINED. 3.4 BENEFITS FROM WEST AND US AID TO PAKISTAN POST 9/11:ERROR! BOOKMARK NOT DEFINED. 3.5 PAK-AFGHAN RELATIONS POST 9/11:ERROR! BOOKMARK NOT DEFINED. 3.5. 1 Blame Game: Error! Bookmark not defined. CONCLUSION: 162 REFERENCES 165 PAKISTAN’S AFGHAN POLICY POST 9/11: CHALLENGES AND PROSPECTS 177 4.1 MILITANT’S TACTICS AND MILITARY OPERATIONS IN FATA: 177 4.2 OPERATIONS CONDUCTED BY PAKISTAN’S MILITARY ON ITS SOIL: 182 4.2.1 Operation Al-Mizan: 183 4.2.2 Operation Kalosha March (2004): 184 4.2.3 Shakai Agreement (April 2004) & Sararogha Agreement (2005): 185 4.2.4 Operation Rah-e-Haq (2007, 2008 & 2009): 186 4.2.5 Operation Zalzala (2008): 186 4.2.6 Operation Sirat-e-Mustaqeem (June 2008): 187 4.2.7 Operation Sher –Dil (Aug 2008 & Feburary 2009): 187 4.2.8 Operation Rah-e-Rast (May 2009): 188 4.2.9 Operation Rah-e-Nijat (2009 till 2010): 188 4.2.10 Operation Koh-e-Sufaid (July 2011): 188 4.2.11 Operation Zarb – e- Azab: 189 4.3 Pakistan’s Participation in War on Terror: Impact on FATA: 189 4.3.1 Impact on Society: 192 4.3.1.a Extremism: 192 4.3.1.b Enmity: 194 4.3.1.c Status of Women: 194 4.3.1. d Arms Carrying Custom: 196 viii 4.3.1.e Education: 197 4.3.1.f Economic Life: 198 4.4 IMPACT ON KYBER PAKHTUNKHWA (KP): 200 4.4.1 Political Situation: 200 4.5 IMPACT ON PAKISTAN: 203 4.5.1 Economic Cost: 203 4.5.2 Growing Extremism, Sectarianism and Intolerance in Society: 204 4.5.3 Democracy: 206 4.6 EXTERNAL FACTORS: 208 4.6.1 Indo-US Collaboration post 9/11: 208 4.6.2 Indo-US closeness and its Implications for Pakistan: 210 4.6.3 Pakistan’s Post 9/11 Afghan Policy and its Impact on Pakistan’s Kashmir Policy: 212 4.6.4 Pak-Iran Relations Post 9/11: 215 4.6.5 Pak-US Relations: 217 4.5.6 Issues between Pakistan and US post 9/11: 220 4.5.6.a Issue of Haqqani Network: 220 4.6.6.b Insurgencies’ in Kashmir and Afghanistan: 221 4.6.6.c Drone Attacks: 222 4.6.6.d Issue of Dr Abdul Qadir Khan: 223 4.6.6.e Indo-US Deals: 223 4.6.6.f Raymond Davis: 224 4.6.6.g Osama’s Death: 225 CONCLUSION: 228 REFERENCES 234 CHAPTER FIVE 247 DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSION 247 REFERENCES 265 ix LIST OF ACRONYMS AfPak (Afghan-Pakistan) BAI (Barelvi Ansar-ul-Islam) BBC (British Broadcasting Corporation) BLA (Baloch Liberation Army) BNA (Baloch National Army) CASA1000 (Central Asia-South Asia power project) CENTO (Central Treaty Organization) CIA (Central Intelligence Agency) CRS (Congressional Research Services) CNN (Cable News Network) CSF (Coalition Support Fund) CTBT (Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty) DLI (Deobandi Lashkar-e-Islami) DRA (Democratic Republic of Afghanistan) ETIM (East Turkestan Islamic Movement) ECO (Economic Cooperation Organization) ESF (Economic Support Fund) EPPA (Enhanced Partnership for Pakistan Act) EU (European Union) FATA (Federally Administered Tribal Areas) FBI (Federal Bureau of Investigation) FCR (Frontier Crimes Regulations) FC (Frontier Corps) FDI (Foregin Direct Investment) FMF (Federal Ministry of Finance) GDP (Gross Domestic Product) HuA ( Harkat-ul-Ansar)
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