The November 2020 US Election
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Case Study The November 2020 US Election CONTENTS 1. The 2020 Presidential and Congressional elections 2. Selecting the presidential candidates: invisible primaries, primaries, caucuses and conventions 3. Party policies and the polarisation of US politics 4. Campaign finance: what part did it play? 5. The electoral college and the outcome of the presidential contest 6. Voting patterns 7. Explaining the outcome 8. The Congressional elections: from divided to united government 1. The 2020 Presidential and Congressional elections The 3 November 2020 US election was remarkable for a number of reasons, not least because the victory of Democrat Joe Biden ended the sitting Republican President Donald Trump’s hopes of a second term of office. It was the heaviest defeat for a sitting president since Herbert Hoover’s loss to Franklin Roosevelt in 1932, in the depth of the Great Depression. Trump’s populist brand of politics was a major election issue, deeply dividing the American public. A core of admirers rallied to his ‘Keep America Great’ slogan but a swathe of moderate opinion viewed him as unpredictable, chauvinistic and, Key terms crucially, a president who did not respond effectively in a great national crisis. He was the first President to seek a Impeachment second term after facing (and surviving) charges of the process whereby impeachment. Biden, by contrast, was a long-serving Congress brings former Delaware senator who had also been Vice- charges of alleged President under Barack Obama in 2009–17. He was a crimes against an centrist Democrat in a party which had moved to the left office-holder such as during the previous decade; a figure who offered the President. reassurance at a time of instability, even if at times he struggled to project himself effectively to the voters. 1 Case Study Presidential elections in the US take place every four years, on the first Tuesday after 1 November. This has been the unvarying practice even in wartime conditions, as in 1864 (the Civil War) and 1944 (Second World War). The Covid-19 pandemic put limitations on the conduct of the campaign but did not prevent the election from taking place on schedule. From the Trump camp there were persistent claims that the election might be unfairly Key term ‘rigged’ against him, and he refused to give a binding commitment to accept the result. He claimed that the Mail-in ballots widespread use of mail-in ballots in response to the virus voting by post rather would encourage voter fraud. Trump’s critics argued that than in person, which this was a partisan attempt to suppress voting for his was widely considered opponent, as Democrat voters were less likely to vote in unsafe in the Covid-19 person in the pandemic. They also pointed out that the pandemic. incidence of fraud in modern elections is very low. The deadlines for accepting mailed ballots for counting became a politicised issue, with the Supreme Court ruling in October against a bid by Republicans to block extensions beyond 3 November in Pennsylvania and North Carolina. The Covid-19 global pandemic was the essential background to the election. It affected the US from late January 2020 and became the subject of a national emergency in mid-March. Criticism of President Trump’s handling of the pandemic was central to the outcome of the contest. The health crisis was dramatised when he and his wife, together with other members of his White House team, tested positive for the virus at the beginning of October, and he was briefly hospitalised. By election day the US had the suffered the highest number of deaths from the virus in the world (over 200,000), with more than eight million confirmed cases. The severe economic effects of the virus undermined the President’s claim to have guaranteed prosperity for the American people. The unemployment rate reached a peak of 15 per cent in April before dropping to just under 8 per cent by October. 2 Case Study This was still almost double the rate that Trump inherited in 2017. A week before election day, it was shown that GDP had risen by 33 per cent in the third quarter of the year – an impressive recovery, given that the second quarter had seen a 31 per cent decrease - but it was too late to reverse the decline in Trump’s fortunes. He was widely perceived as having been too complacent about the spread of the virus, inconsistent in his public statements and failing to give a clear lead at a time of crisis. Another issue which made this an exceptionally divided election was the outbreak of race riots in many US cities. This followed the killing on 25 May of the African- American George Floyd by a Minnesota policeman. Demonstrations organised by the pressure group Black Lives Matter focused attention on the treatment of ethnic minorities by the police. Many cities also saw campaigns to remove statues perceived as racist, such as those commemorating figures from the slave-owning Confederate side in the Civil War. Trump’s attempt to depict himself as the guardian of law Key terms and order drew parallels with the 1968 election, when Republican candidate Richard Nixon similarly appointed Faction himself the spokesman of the ‘silent majority’ in his bid one of the groups that for the White House. By deploying federal troops to areas make up a political where riots took place, and opposing the campaign to party – in this case the remove monuments, Trump came into conflict with the progressive wing of civil rights movement. He won approval from the Democrat Party. conservatives by attacking the Democrat Party faction Defunding the police that proposed defunding the police but Biden himself taking funding away was careful not to support this radical option. Less from police positive for Trump was public reaction to his decision to departments and using stage a photo opportunity outside a Washington DC the resources to church, holding a Bible, which was widely seen as support social services inappropriate. Law and order became a salient issue in disadvantaged communities. This was during the summer as disturbances broke out in states proposed by members including Oregon and Wisconsin. Trump accused the of the Black Lives Democrats of being soft on crime and excusing violent Matter protest law-breakers, whilst Biden charged the President of movement. having fomented disorder through his divisive language. 3 Case Study The 2020 contest was notable for another reason. The Pause point two major party candidates, Trump (aged 74) and Biden The election date and (77), were the oldest individuals in US history to run in a the US Constitution presidential election. This made the choice of Vice- Presidential candidate unusually important, as there was The rumours that the election date might be a real possibility that the winner might not serve a full postponed provide a four-year term. Trump stuck with his first-term choice, good example of the the conservative Mike Pence. Biden selected a leading importance of the African-American female candidate, Kamala Harris, as his Constitution in running mate. She was a California senator and former determining US political practice. The attorney-general for the state, some 20 years younger Constitution does not than Biden, who had herself launched and then specify the date of the discontinued a campaign for the presidential nomination. election but it does state that the Public attention naturally focuses heavily on the election inauguration of a new of the President, although elections to Congress take president must take place on the same day, and these will also be examined in place on 20 January. this case study. Were a defeated president to refuse to 2. Selecting the presidential candidates: leave the White House invisible primaries, primaries, caucuses and then, this would trigger a major conventions constitutional crisis. With Trump as their candidate, the Republicans did not The Constitution have to go through the complex selection process that allows states to decide faces an opposition party. Although he faced four short- the ‘times, places and manner’ of lived challenges from within his party in 2019, he was Congressional nominated for a second term in March 2020. By contrast elections, subject to the Democrats faced a long process of narrowing down Congress’s authority an initial list of more than 20 candidates. We will focus to ‘make or alter’ state here on the front-runners for reasons of space. There are regulations. several stages in the process to note. Candidate Background Political position within the party Senator for Delaware 1973–2009; Vice- Joe Biden Centre President 2009–17 Bernie Sanders Independent senator for Vermont since 2007 Left/progressive Elizabeth Warren Senator for Massachusetts since 2013 Left/progressive Michael Mayor of New York 2002–13 Centre Bloomberg Pete Buttigieg Mayor of South Bend, Indiana 2012–20 Centre Amy Klobuchar Senator for Minnesota since 2007 Centre Table 1 The main Democrat Party presidential candidates, 2020 4 Case Study Key terms Invisible primaries This term describes the period during which candidates Invisible primary begin to announce themselves and test out their levels of the period before the support before the formal voting takes place in primaries primaries take place, and caucuses. Invisible primaries are opportunities for when candidates candidates to begin raising money for their campaigns attempt to establish their ability to be (hence the alternative term ‘money primaries’) and to successful in the start building support for a presidential election bid. The primaries. invisible primaries for the 2020 election took place during Primaries and 2019. caucuses Sometimes unexpected candidates can win media public votes held in each state, in which coverage as potential frontrunners during the invisible candidates from the primaries.