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The November 2020 US Election

The November 2020 US Election

Case Study The November 2020

US Election CONTENTS 1. The 2020 Presidential and Congressional elections 2. Selecting the presidential candidates: invisible primaries, primaries, caucuses and conventions 3. Party policies and the polarisation of US politics 4. Campaign finance: what part did it play? 5. The electoral college and the outcome of the presidential contest 6. Voting patterns 7. Explaining the outcome 8. The Congressional elections: from divided to united government 1. The 2020 Presidential and Congressional elections The 3 November 2020 US election was remarkable for a number of reasons, not least because the victory of Democrat ended the sitting Republican President ’s hopes of a second term of office. It was the heaviest defeat for a sitting president since Herbert Hoover’s loss to Franklin Roosevelt in 1932, in the depth of the Great Depression. Trump’s populist brand of politics was a major election issue, deeply dividing the American public. A core of admirers rallied to his ‘Keep America Great’ slogan but a swathe of moderate opinion viewed him as unpredictable, chauvinistic and, Key terms crucially, a president who did not respond effectively in a great national crisis. He was the first President to seek a Impeachment second term after facing (and surviving) charges of the process whereby impeachment. Biden, by contrast, was a long-serving Congress brings former senator who had also been Vice- charges of alleged President under in 2009–17. He was a crimes against an centrist Democrat in a party which had moved to the left office-holder such as during the previous decade; a figure who offered the President. reassurance at a time of instability, even if at times he struggled to project himself effectively to the voters.

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Presidential elections in the US take place every four years, on the first Tuesday after 1 November. This has been the unvarying practice even in wartime conditions, as in 1864 (the Civil War) and 1944 (Second World War). The Covid-19 pandemic put limitations on the conduct of the campaign but did not prevent the election from taking place on schedule. From the Trump camp there were persistent claims that the election might be unfairly Key term ‘rigged’ against him, and he refused to give a binding commitment to accept the result. He claimed that the Mail-in ballots widespread use of mail-in ballots in response to the virus voting by post rather would encourage voter fraud. Trump’s critics argued that than in person, which this was a partisan attempt to suppress voting for his was widely considered opponent, as Democrat voters were less likely to vote in unsafe in the Covid-19 person in the pandemic. They also pointed out that the pandemic. incidence of fraud in modern elections is very low. The deadlines for accepting mailed ballots for counting

became a politicised issue, with the Supreme Court ruling in October against a bid by Republicans to block extensions beyond 3 November in and . The Covid-19 global pandemic was the essential background to the election. It affected the US from late January 2020 and became the subject of a national emergency in mid-March. Criticism of President Trump’s handling of the pandemic was central to the outcome of the contest. The health crisis was dramatised when he and his wife, together with other members of his team, tested positive for the virus at the beginning of October, and he was briefly hospitalised. By election day the US had the suffered the highest number of deaths from the virus in the world (over 200,000), with more than eight million confirmed cases. The severe economic effects of the virus undermined the President’s claim to have guaranteed prosperity for the American people. The unemployment rate reached a peak of 15 per cent in April before dropping to just under 8 per cent by October.

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This was still almost double the rate that Trump inherited in 2017. A week before election day, it was shown that GDP had risen by 33 per cent in the third quarter of the year – an impressive recovery, given that the second quarter had seen a 31 per cent decrease - but it was too late to reverse the decline in Trump’s fortunes. He was widely perceived as having been too complacent about the spread of the virus, inconsistent in his public statements and failing to give a clear lead at a time of crisis. Another issue which made this an exceptionally divided election was the outbreak of race riots in many US cities. This followed the killing on 25 May of the African- American George Floyd by a policeman. Demonstrations organised by the pressure group Black Lives Matter focused attention on the treatment of ethnic minorities by the police. Many cities also saw campaigns to remove statues perceived as racist, such as those commemorating figures from the slave-owning Confederate side in the Civil War. Trump’s attempt to depict himself as of law Key terms and order drew parallels with the 1968 election, when Republican candidate similarly appointed Faction himself the spokesman of the ‘silent majority’ in his bid one of the groups that for the White House. By deploying federal troops to areas make up a political where riots took place, and opposing the campaign to party – in this case the remove monuments, Trump came into conflict with the progressive wing of civil rights movement. He won approval from the Democrat Party. conservatives by attacking the Democrat Party faction Defunding the police that proposed defunding the police but Biden himself taking funding away was careful not to support this radical option. Less from police positive for Trump was public reaction to his decision to departments and using stage a photo opportunity outside a DC the resources to church, holding a Bible, which was widely seen as support social services inappropriate. Law and order became a salient issue in disadvantaged communities. This was during the summer as disturbances broke out in states proposed by members including and . Trump accused the of the Black Lives Democrats of being soft on crime and excusing violent Matter protest law-breakers, whilst Biden charged the President of movement. having fomented disorder through his divisive language.

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The 2020 contest was notable for another reason. The Pause point two major party candidates, Trump (aged 74) and Biden The election date and (77), were the oldest individuals in US history to run in a the US Constitution presidential election. This made the choice of Vice- Presidential candidate unusually important, as there was The rumours that the election date might be a real possibility that the winner might not serve a full postponed provide a four-year term. Trump stuck with his first-term choice, good example of the the conservative Mike Pence. Biden selected a leading importance of the African-American female candidate, Kamala Harris, as his Constitution in running mate. She was a California senator and former determining US political practice. The attorney-general for the state, some 20 years younger Constitution does not than Biden, who had herself launched and then specify the date of the discontinued a campaign for the presidential nomination. election but it does state that the Public attention naturally focuses heavily on the election inauguration of a new of the President, although elections to Congress take president must take place on the same day, and these will also be examined in place on 20 January. this case study. Were a defeated president to refuse to 2. Selecting the presidential candidates: leave the White House invisible primaries, primaries, caucuses and then, this would trigger a major conventions constitutional crisis. With Trump as their candidate, the Republicans did not The Constitution have to go through the complex selection process that allows states to decide faces an opposition party. Although he faced four short- the ‘times, places and manner’ of lived challenges from within his party in 2019, he was Congressional nominated for a second term in March 2020. By contrast elections, subject to the Democrats faced a long process of narrowing down Congress’s authority an initial list of more than 20 candidates. We will focus to ‘make or alter’ state here on the front-runners for reasons of space. There are regulations. several stages in the process to note.

Candidate Background Political position within the party Senator for Delaware 1973–2009; Vice- Joe Biden Centre President 2009–17 Bernie Sanders Independent senator for since 2007 Left/progressive Elizabeth Warren Senator for since 2013 Left/progressive Michael Mayor of 2002–13 Centre Bloomberg Pete Buttigieg Mayor of South Bend, 2012–20 Centre Amy Klobuchar Senator for Minnesota since 2007 Centre Table 1 The main Democrat Party presidential candidates, 2020

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Key terms Invisible primaries This term describes the period during which candidates Invisible primary begin to announce themselves and test out their levels of the period before the support before the formal voting takes place in primaries primaries take place, and caucuses. Invisible primaries are opportunities for when candidates candidates to begin raising money for their campaigns attempt to establish their ability to be (hence the alternative term ‘money primaries’) and to successful in the start building support for a presidential election bid. The primaries. invisible primaries for the 2020 election took place during Primaries and 2019. caucuses Sometimes unexpected candidates can win media public votes held in each state, in which coverage as potential frontrunners during the invisible candidates from the primaries. One of the best performers was the little- same party compete known Pete Buttigieg, former mayor of a small city in to secure nomination Indiana and the first openly gay candidate for the as their party’s presidency. He rose from one per cent to eight per cent in presidential candidate preferences during the invisible primaries. candidate. Invisible primaries can also see promising candidates eliminated if their campaign stalls. For example, Kamala Harris dropped out of the race in December 2019, stating that she could not raise the necessary funds to continue. Primaries and caucuses These events are held between February and June in election year, on a state-by-state basis. The competing presidential candidates aim to win the support of as many delegates as possible – party activists who later attend a meeting known as the National Party Convention, where they vote for their chosen candidate. The number of delegates per state reflects its population size. Democratic Party primaries and caucuses use a proportional system to allocate delegates, unlike the ‘winner takes all’ approach of the presidential election. As the timeline shows, states hold their primaries and caucuses on different dates. The schedule was disrupted in 2020 by the coronavirus.

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There are differences in the way that primaries and caucuses are organised. Some states (for example and ) have open primaries where any voter can take part. Others (such as and New York) hold closed primaries, in which only registered supporters of a particular party may vote. A third category of semi-closed primaries (such as North Carolina) allow both registered party supporters and independents to take part. Primaries are formal occasions in which participants cast a secret ballot. They differ from caucuses, where residents meet in small local gatherings to discuss and vote on the rival candidates. These are more informal than primaries: participants may vote by a show of hands or a head count may be taken. A handful of states use caucuses: Iowa, , North Dakota, (and for Republicans only). Primaries and caucuses provide an opportunity for political participation, as voters are given an opportunity to scrutinise the candidates and their policies. Commentators eagerly await the results of the first few such events, as an indication of which candidates are likely to build the momentum for a successful presidential bid. The outcome in 2020, however, shows that a candidate who performs well in the early stages will not necessarily make it to the finishing post. Pete Buttigieg narrowly won the Iowa caucus – a remarkable achievement for a candidate who lacked a high national profile. But it was the champion of the Democratic Party’s left wing, Bernie Sanders, who triumphed in and Nevada. He enthused the party’s grassroots with his overtly ‘democratic socialist’ policies, including universal government-funded healthcare, the abolition of student tuition fees and increased taxes on the wealthy. In February he was widely regarded as the frontrunner for the nomination.

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At this stage Joe Biden, the eventual winner, did not perform well. He was easily written off as ‘yesterday’s man’, lacklustre in TV debates and too old to rise to the challenges of modern electoral politics. What turned Biden’s fortunes around was his positive relationship with African Americans, which dated back to his association with Barack Obama. This proved decisive for him in South Carolina, where black voters comprised 60 per cent of the Democratic electorate. A key figure in swinging opinion towards Biden was Sam Clyburn, a long- serving African-American congressman, whose influence with his community was unmatched. Following the South Carolina primary, Pete Buttigieg and another leading moderate, Amy Klobuchar (Minnesota), withdrew from the race and endorsed Biden. This put the former Vice-President in a strong position for the event known as ‘’ (3 March), when 14 states cast their votes on the same day. Together these states accounted for more than a third of the party’s delegates at the convention. Biden faced a late challenge from Michael Bloomberg, a former Republican and independent New York mayor and billionaire, who was able to spend a phenomenal $300 million on advertising, but who proved to lack the necessary campaigning skills. After Biden took nine states, he emerged as the clear winner of the nomination. Bloomberg ended his campaign, as did Elizabeth Warren, the left-wing Massachusetts senator, and finally Sanders too bowed to the inevitable. This was of great assistance to Biden’s chances in the election. By contrast in 2016, when won the nomination, Sanders did not endorse her until just before the convention, and about a quarter of his primary supporters did not rally to her in the election. In 2020, the animosity towards Trump was such that 80 per cent of Sanders’ supporters pledged to vote for Biden.

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Biden’s success demonstrates the success of name recognition. It was also a victory for pragmatism over idealism. Although Sanders’ radical policy platform was Pause point popular with Democratic Party supporters, most delegates ultimately accepted Biden’s argument that such Joe Biden a programme would not command a majority in Congress. Using the information Moreover, many moderate Democrats feared that Sanders given here, identify might alienate uncommitted middle-ground Americans the key reasons why with his talk of a ‘revolution’, and thus cost the party the Joe Biden won the Democratic Party election. The priority was to unite behind a candidate who nomination. Write a could defeat Trump. Despite his unpromising start, Biden paragraph outlining seemed best placed to lead the Democratic Party’s his political views and coalition of African Americans, moderate suburban how his experience dwellers, blue-collar working-class voters and younger qualified him to run liberals to victory. Moreover, as a former Vice-President, for the presidency in 2020. he was able to project himself as an experienced figure who could be trusted to handle a crisis.

Conventions National Party Conventions are usually large-scale events, with a great deal of razzamatazz, designed to rally support behind the presidential candidate, publicise the policy Key terms platform and enthuse the party membership. The 2020 conventions were delayed and then largely held online because of the pandemic, with a series of keynote also known as a speakers addressing TV audiences. Even the formal battleground state, one nomination of the candidates, and their acceptance, was which can potentially be won by either conducted remotely. Nonetheless the choice of official party’s candidate. location for each convention was significant. The Democrats chose Milwaukee, Wisconsin, a Mid-Western state narrowly won by Trump in 2016, to show their intention to retake it. The Republicans chose Charlotte in North Carolina, another swing state.

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Within the limits imposed by the pandemic, both parties sought to showcase the appeal of their respective candidates and to demonstrate popular support. The Democrats aimed to show the breadth of their coalition by including not just prominent Democrats such as Bernie Sanders and two former presidents, Barack Obama and Bill Clinton, among their speakers but also moderate Republicans such as former governor, John Kasich. The Republicans demonstrated their commitment to traditional, ‘small town’ American values with their choice of speakers. These included a couple, who won publicity for pointing firearms at anti-racist Black Lives Matter protesters, and an anti-abortion activist. Unusually for a sitting President, few prominent members of his own party gave Trump their public backing. In one respect the virtual conventions resembled their real predecessors. A common criticism of conventions in recent decades is that they lack spontaneity and are in effect ‘coronations’ of pre-determined candidates. The pre-planning of the virtual events in 2020 meant that they were heavily ‘scripted’, with even less room for surprise interventions.

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Date State Primary/caucus 3 February Iowa Caucus 11 February New Hampshire Primary 22 February Nevada Caucus 29 February South Carolina Primary , , California, , , 3 March Massachusetts, Minnesota, North Carolina, , Primary (‘Super Tuesday’) , Texas, , Vermont, , , , Missouri, North Dakota, Primary apart 10 March Washington from N Dakota 17 March , Florida, Primary 7 April Wisconsin Primary 10 April Primary 17 April Wyoming Caucus 28 April Ohio Primary 2 May Primary 12 May Primary 19 May Oregon Primary 22 May Primary Washington DC, Indiana, , , New 2 June Primary Mexico, Pennsylvania, , South Dakota 9 June , Primary 23 June Kentucky, New York Primary 7 July Delaware, Primary 11 July Primary 11 August Primary Table 2: Timeline: the build-up to the 2020 presidential election

Date Event Location 17–20 August Democratic Convention Milwaukee, Wisconsin 24–27 August Republican Convention Charlotte, North Carolina 29 September 1st Presidential debate Cleveland, Ohio 7 October Vice-Presidential debate Salt Lake City, Utah 15 October 2nd Presidential debate: Miami, Florida / Philadelphia, ‘duelling town halls’ event Pennsylvania 22 October 3rd Presidential debate Nashville, Tennessee 3 November The Presidential election Across the USA Table 3: The conventions and TV debates

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3. Party policies and the polarisation of US politics Joe Biden did not adopt the most radical policies of his party’s progressive wing, as advocated by Bernie Sanders. For example, he does not favour ‘Medicare for all’ – universal, government-funded health insurance replacing private insurance. Nor has he adopted the radical ‘Green New Deal’ espoused by the left of his party, which seeks to transition to renewable energy within ten years. However, Biden has moved away from the party’s centre in some key areas. At the Republican Convention Trump Key terms did not announce a new policy platform but restated his commitment to the ‘America first’ agenda announced for Executive order the 2016 election. This slogan, though never precisely a direction to the US defined, carried connotations of nationalism, isolationism federal bureaucracy on and possibly intolerance. In office Trump distanced the US how the president would like a piece of from international commitments entered into by previous legislation to be Democrat and Republican administrations. implemented. There is a continuing gulf between the two parties. Democrats stand for diversity and support for minority groups, and a more internationalist view of the USA’s role Pause point in the world. Republicans have a more traditionalist, conservative vision of America, and under Trump’s Party differences leadership have become more inward-looking. Using the information Social and moral issues have become an increasingly here and other resources, explain important dividing line. Democrats are the more socially why Democrats and liberal of the two parties. For example, on abortion Biden Republicans take up is committed to reversing Trump’s executive order which such strongly opposed stopped taxpayer funding of the pro-choice Planned policy positions. Parenthood organisation. This reflects his party’s greater Include at least three sensitivity to women’s rights issues. Gun control is examples. Also look for areas where the another issue. The Democrats do not directly challenge divide between them the Second Amendment right to gun ownership, but they is less obvious. A favour more controls, including a ban on the sale of useful website, which assault weapons and stricter background checks on compares the views of purchasers of firearms. This contrasts with Trump’s more the presidential clear-cut commitment to the right to own firearms; he has candidates, is Ballotpedia stated that ‘the right of self-defence doesn’t stop at the end of your driveway’.

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Policy area How the parties differ Taxation Biden would increase the top rate of income tax and corporation tax and use the revenue to invest in ‘green infrastructure’ projects. Trump has cut both income tax and corporation tax. This links to the different philosophies of the parties – Democrats prioritise helping middle- and low- income people, whereas Republicans focus more on business interests and reducing the role of government in the economy. Health care Biden would extend the 2010 Affordable Care Act, known as ‘Obamacare’, which extended healthcare insurance to uninsured people. Republicans are hostile to the level of government intervention represented by the policy. Trump removed the requirement to buy insurance or pay a tax penalty. Immigration Biden would make it easier for people to claim asylum at the border with Mexico, reversing Trump’s more restrictive policies. He supports the Obama-era Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA) policy, which allows people brought illegally into the US as children to stay. Trump is opposed to this policy. Energy Biden is keener than the Republicans on renewable energy. He has promised net-zero emissions by 2050 and the electrification of the transport sector. Trump supports the continued exploitation of oil and gas. He replaced Obama’s Clean Power Plan, which set targets for cutting greenhouse gas emissions, with the less ambitious Affordable Clean Energy Rule. He repudiated the Paris climate agreement, to which Biden would return. Table 4: Policy differences between the main US parties at the 2020 election

4. Campaign finance: what part did it play? The 2020 election reinforces the argument that the ability to raise campaign finance is crucial to success for candidates in the USA, both for the Presidency and Congress. Spending on all the November elections was close to a total of $14 billion – more than twice the amount spent in 2016. In the presidential race, Trump’s team began with the advantages associated with incumbency, building on the 2016 support network to establish a $72 million lead in the spring of 2020. By early October, however, the Biden campaign had $144 million more cash in hand than the Trump campaign. This enabled the Democrats to run extensive TV and digital advertising campaigns in battleground states, outspending Trump by a wide margin. The Democrats’ impressive resources enabled them to target particular demographics such as Puerto Rican voters in Florida and Mexican Americans in Arizona. Although they did not win all the swing states, their efforts put the Trump campaign on the defensive.

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The origin of political donations is an important issue. Both candidates ignored the availability of public funding for their campaigns. This was because the official system, established in 1974, allowed candidates to claim federal funding to match privately raised contributions, but in return they have to accept relatively low spending limits. Biden and Trump followed a pattern established in the three previous elections, in which the major party candidates relied exclusively on private funding, thus allowing them to increase their legally permitted Key terms expenditure. Soft money The 2020 election saw 20 per cent of campaign funds cash contributed to a come from small donors, who contributed a maximum of political party with no $200 each, an increase of 6 per cent on 2016. This is an limits attached to the encouraging sign for US democracy. More than half of amount that can be Democrat fundraising came from small online donations. received. It was boosted by public reaction to several incidents in Super PACs (Super the course of the campaign, including the popular Political Action Committees) selection of Kamala Harris, the death of Supreme Court Justice Ginsburg and the first presidential debate. organisations which raise and spend However, the role of a small number of wealthy unlimited amounts of contributors continued to be a concern. These are people money to support or who do not reflect the wider community whose interests oppose political candidates, but are at stake in the election. One research group found that without directly in 2020, more cash came from Washington DC than from donating to or co- twenty states combined, and that Biden raised 10 per cent ordinating with these of his funds from just six zip codes, concentrated in candidates. They Washington DC, New York and Indianapolis. Soft money, emerged in US politics indirectly donated to a campaign by individuals or after the 2010 Supreme Court case, organisations, remains an issue in US politics. Super PACs, Citizens united v which seek to influence electoral outcomes without Federal Election directly supporting a candidate, played an important role Commission, which as they had in 2016. The highest-spending PACs were removed restrictions almost equally divided between conservative and liberal on political positions, with two (America First Action and Preserve expenditure made by corporations. America PAC) backing Trump and two (American Bridge 21st Century and Unite the Country) for Biden.

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5. The electoral college and the outcome of the presidential contest The outcome of the US presidential election is not determined by the total popular vote, even though Biden received a record number of votes. Instead, voters choose an ‘elector’ to represent them in the electoral college. Each state is allocated a number of votes in the college linked to its representation in Congress. This ensures a balance in terms of the weighting given to smaller and larger states, but it is not strictly proportional to population. To win the presidency a candidate must win a majority of electoral college votes – at least 270 votes out of a total of 538. Apart from Maine and Nebraska, all states have a ‘winner takes all’ policy, whereby the candidate who wins a majority of the vote takes all of the electoral college votes for the state. The election result proved closer than many commentators expected. Biden was consistently more than 8 per cent ahead in national polling but it was the ‘swing states’ that mattered most, and here his lead was smaller. Trump held Florida, even though it was reported that the high percentage of retired voters in the state had become disillusioned with him for his stance on the virus. The state’s 29 electoral college votes went to Trump, largely because of the sizeable, conservative Cuban exile community, who responded to his depiction of Biden as a puppet of the radical left. Trump also retained Texas, Ohio and North Carolina. However, the other key swing states of Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin and Arizona declared for Biden. He won the largest popular vote in US presidential history, as well as a clear majority in the electoral college. This was on the largest turnout since 1900 – 66.7 per cent. At the same time, it is important to note that Trump won the second-largest vote share of any presidential candidate, which helped to generate claims on the Republican side that he had been unfairly robbed of victory. Third party and independent candidates, of whom the most successful was of the Libertarian Party, gained less than 2 per cent of the national vote between them.

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Vote counting was an issue in the 2020 contest. As a result of the pandemic 101 million votes were cast early, many of them by post. Democrat voters were more likely to use this method in order to avoid physical contact at polling stations. It is up to the states to set the rules on when they start to count mail-in ballots, with most not allowing them to be opened until the end of polling day. This was one reason why there was a delay of several days in announcing the election result. Trump then refused to concede defeat, making baseless claims that he had in fact won. His legal team launched lawsuits in states such as Pennsylvania, to disqualify votes that they regarded as illegitimate. However, they produced no substantive evidence and failed to change the result of the election. Trump continued to dispute the result but eventually agreed to the transfer of power to Biden. Nonetheless, before he left the White House there were violent scenes on 6 January 2021 when, after a Trump rally in Washington DC, some of his supporters invaded Congress in a bid to disrupt the formal approval of the election result. Despite the violence, a handful of Republican senators and a larger number of Congressmen still voted against certification.

Candidate Popular vote Electoral college votes Joe Biden 81.2 million 306 Donald Trump 74.2 million 232 Table 5: The presidential election results

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6. Voting patterns It is important to understand the part played by various demographics in the outcome of the election, although it should be noted that experts do not claim that the available data is entirely accurate. Race was an important factor in voting behaviour. As expected, Biden was the more popular choice for ethnic minority voters, winning up to 90 per cent of African- American votes and 70 per cent of Latinos. This reflects the Democratic Party’s traditionally strong links to these communities. However, Trump was relatively successful with Hispanic people in areas such as Florida and Texas. As noted above, this can be attributed to the politically and socially conservative attitudes of these voters. In Texas, Trump’s economic policies may have garnered support among workers in the oil and gas industries. Gender had been predicted to be another major dividing line between the two sides, with women less likely than men to vote for Trump. This turned out to be justified, with an estimated gender gap of between 8 and 12 points. Levels of education continue to be an important divide. College-educated non-white voters remained loyal to the Democrats, with female voters in this category preferring Biden by an average of 22 points. Trump raised his support among non-college-educated non-white voters from 20 to 25 per cent between 2016 and 2020. He won 63 per cent of non-college-educated white voters. Trump lost some support among older voters – 51 per cent of over-65 voters supported him, compared to 52 per cent in 2016. It had been expected that the oldest voters, who were most vulnerable to the virus, would desert Trump, but the results do not bear this out. However, younger voters remained loyal to the Democrats. Among voters in the 18 to 29 age group, 62 per cent supported Biden and just 35 per cent supported Trump.

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An important development which helped Biden was a shift towards the Democrats in suburban areas, particularly those in and southern swing states. These included Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, which had been historically Democrat prior to 2016, and Georgia, which went Democrat in 2020 for the first time since 1992. This may be because these areas, although still mainly white, are becoming more racially diverse. By contrast Trump’s vote held up in rural areas and small towns. 7. Explaining the outcome As the incumbent Trump possessed the advantages of the Key term office itself: instant name recognition and media attention; an aura of authority as ’s chief Incumbent executive; and a ready-made, well-resourced campaign the current holder of a team. He also had authority over his own party – though political office. he did face four short-lived challenges from other Republicans in 2019 before finally securing the nomination. Only one previous president in the previous 30 years, George HW Bush in 1992, had failed to win a second term. Trump’s main disadvantage, however, was that his poll ratings suffered as he was perceived to have mishandled the health emergency and to have dissipated the promise of economic prosperity made in 2016. A decade of manufacturing jobs growth disappeared in a matter of months as the disease took hold. This was the record on which Trump was judged by voters. The polls began to narrow by the end of August. This was largely due to the outbreak of race-related rioting, much of which took place in Democrat-controlled cities such as New York, Portland and Seattle. Trump sought to shore up his core vote by arguing that his opponents had lost control and that lawlessness was the responsibility of their far-left supporters. Ultimately, however, this proved to offer false hope to the Trump campaign.

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Trump’s gaffes, such as suggesting that injections of household cleaning products should be tested as coronavirus treatment, were relentlessly highlighted by the media. It also worked in the Democrats’ interests that their candidate had a track record of executive experience as Vice-President and could be presented as a ‘safe pair of hands’. Trump’s attempts to depict Biden as ‘Sleepy Joe’, a candidate who was simply not up to the task of being President, did not gain traction. Nor did voters believe the Key term allegations that Biden was the passive tool of his party’s far left. His plans for increased public investment in New Deal infrastructure were consistent with the policies of earlier a series of public Democratic Presidents, notably Franklin Roosevelt’s New works programmes Deal in the 1930s. They were viewed as essentially and other policies mainstream rather than ‘socialist’ policies. Trump was no introduced by more successful in depicting Biden’s running mate as an Democrat President extreme left-winger. Although radical on issues of racial Franklin Roosevelt (1933–45) to address equality, Kamala Harris was to the right on law and order, the economic slump with a track record of toughness on crime as a former and mass California attorney-general. unemployment of the Great Depression. This was an extremely divisive election. Virtually every issue was politicised in a highly partisan manner. When

wildfires devastated large parts of California and Oregon Pause point in September, the candidates out forward starkly divergent explanations. For Biden, this was further Incumbency evidence of climate change, whilst Trump blamed the What does the disaster on poor forest management by the state experience of the authorities. 2020 election show about the advantages Another front in the campaign was opened when a long- and disadvantages of serving member of the Supreme Court, Ruth Bader incumbency? Ginsburg, died on 18 September after a long illness. The Compare what happened with removal of a key liberal justice gave Trump an another recent contest opportunity to nominate a more ideologically congenial in which a sitting conservative to the Court. In a similar situation in 2016, President was seeking when conservative justice Antonin Scalia died, the re-election, such as Republican-controlled Senate refused to hold a 2012 (Obama) or confirmation hearing for a replacement put forward by 2004 (George W Bush). outgoing President Obama, on the grounds that this decision should be left until after the election.

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In 2020, however, the Senate supported Trump by approving his nominee, Catholic conservative , just a week before election day. This infuriated liberals because it meant that the Court would have an inbuilt 6–3 conservative majority. It raised the possibility of previous liberal positions on issues such as abortion and Obamacare being reversed. The first televised presidential debate on 29 September highlighted the bitterness of the personal rivalry between the two candidates. It was widely condemned for bringing US democracy into disrepute, with the two men trading insults and talking over each other rather than seriously debating the issues. Afterwards, the commission responsible for supervising the debates proposed to change the rules in time for the next round. Then the Key term announcement that Trump had tested positive for Covid- 19 disrupted the schedule. This dramatic news was what US electoral history commentators call an October surprise – an unexpected contains several news event, late in an election campaign, which may affect examples of dramatic the outcome. news stories which are released in the final At the height of the pandemic some commentators had month of the argued that Biden would be disadvantaged by not being campaign. In October able to campaign in the traditional way, instead being 2016, for example, obliged to broadcast from his home. This meant that he Hillary Clinton’s initially struggled to gain publicity, although he later prospects were made some public appearances. By contrast, as the sitting damaged when FBI Director President, Trump automatically received continuous announced that he was media coverage. He also placed great stress on attending reopening an campaign events in person, mocking Biden for being less investigation into her publicly visible. Trump’s meetings were usually large, use of a private email with supporters not wearing masks or socially distancing. server. Biden’s events were typically smaller-scale and much more cautiously managed. When Trump was hospitalised, this appeared a sign of recklessness rather than vitality, seriously damaging his credibility. It confirmed a growing impression among voters that he was not competent to be entrusted with power for a second term.

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It did not help Trump’s cause when, returning to the White House, apparently cured after three days in hospital, he minimised the seriousness of the disease by claiming that he was now immune. Biden consistently presented a quietly reassuring persona which contrasted markedly with Trump’s flamboyant and aggressive style. This difference was highlighted by the ‘duelling town halls’ event which replaced the planned second televised debate on 15 October. Instead of appearing together, the two candidates were interviewed separately and appeared simultaneously on different TV channels. The final debate took place as planned on 22 October and saw the candidates engage more with the issues. However, the more orderly atmosphere was because the organisers had imposed stricter rules, including provision for turning off the participants’ microphones. Overall, this was one of the most ill-tempered and confrontational campaigns in US presidential history. 8. The Congressional elections: from divided to united government The Congressional elections produced some close results. The Democrats still controlled the House of Representatives, although losses meant that their majority (with New York’s 22nd Congressional district undecided) was now just 222 to 211 – a markedly weaker performance than Biden’s in the presidential contest. In the Senate the Democrats defeated incumbents in Arizona and Colorado but lost a seat in Alabama. Key Republican senators retained their seats – both those identified with Trump such as majority leader Mitch McConnell (Kentucky) and Lindsey Graham (South Carolina), and those who had consistently distanced themselves from him, notably Susan Collins (Maine). This points to the continuing power of incumbency as a factor in securing re-election, with long-serving senators running on the basis of their local record and connections.

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One state whose representation was not resolved in November was Georgia where, uniquely, both Senate seats were contested. In both cases, neither of the top two candidates won 50% of the vote, which meant that, under the state’s rules, a run-off had to be held on 5 January. In a close contest both seats were taken by the Democrats. As a result, the Senate was split evenly, with both parties Key term holding 50 seats. The Senate is chaired by the Vice- President, who has a casting vote in the event of a tie. This Divided government ended the situation of divided government which had when the US House of prevailed since 2019, giving the Democrats the Representatives, opportunity to pass their legislation and secure Senate and Presidency confirmation of their Cabinet appointments. The are not all controlled by one party. The incoming Biden administration therefore had the benefit opposite situation is of a potentially strong political position. It is common for known as united a new president to have his party in control of Congress government, where all at the start of his term, but this advantage is often lost in three institutions are mid-term elections. The new administration faced major controlled by the same challenges, not only in public health and the economy, but party. also the need to reunite a deeply divided country whose institutions had been subjected to the most severe testing in living memory.

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Case Study

Practice question This question, in the style of a Section C question on A Level Paper 3, requires an essay-style response, written within 45 minutes. Evaluate the view that the presidential electoral system successfully promotes democracy in the US. You must consider this view and the alternative to this view in a balanced way. [30 marks]

Please note: this practice question has been written by the author, and not by the senior examiner team for GCE Politics.

Guidance on answering the question This question requires you to examine the main features of the system for electing the US President, including: • The process of selecting the candidates • The role of campaign finance • The part played by the electoral college For each of these you need to provide balance, assessing how far the feature works in a democratic way. You also need to provide an overall evaluation: on balance does the US electoral system promote or weaken democracy? This case study has provided some material that will enable you to use the 2020 election to support your answer, but a fair assessment of the system entails looking at some other recent elections, for example the 2012 and 2016 contests. Note that although this case study also looks at the 2020 Congressional elections, this is not required for this question, which focuses solely on the Presidential election.

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