Read Ebook {PDF EPUB} Swing State by Steve Milton Which Swing States Will Decide the Election? The 2020 presidential race is a seemingly inexhaustible source of emotional turmoil. But how much actual electoral turmoil is going on? The polling has made it clear that most of the contest is not really in doubt: Joe Biden is going to hold onto most of Hillary Clinton’s share of the map from 2016, and Donald Trump is going to hold onto the majority of the states he won. So the Slate Swing State Tracker is here to look at the smaller part of the big picture: How many of the genuinely contested states would each candidate have to win to hit 270 electoral votes, and what does this week’s polling say about their chances? For the purposes of this analysis, we’re assuming there are already 228 electoral votes locked into Biden’s column, and 163 in Trump’s. We’re setting aside the two single electoral votes up for grabs under Nebraska and Maine’s district system. That leaves 10 all-or-nothing battleground states in play. Where do the two campaigns stand? You only need a couple of good polls for Trump in a week to terrify every Democrat in the country. And so there were, exactly, a couple. Battleground polls from ABC News/The Washington Post showed Trump leading Biden by four points in Florida, which has tightened over the last month, and by one point in Arizona, the first lead Trump has posted in a nonpartisan poll of the state in months. This, however, is why they make polling averages. Four other surveys of Arizona this week saw Biden leading between 1 and 9 percentage points, while he led other Florida polls by 2 or 3 points. Meanwhile, we finally got some polls of this election’s “forgotten man,” Ohio, whose blue-collar diner patrons must have been feeling unusually neglected this cycle. The numbers, on the back of the improvements Biden has made with non- college whites and seniors, were strong for the challenger, but we demand more polls of the state and will not rest until they’re taken. So Biden remains, at the end of this week, in a strong position for a comfortable victory—assuming the polling industry has fixed itself since 2016 and Democratic votes won’t be simply thrown in the trash by the new Supreme Court. If he carries his four strongest states out of the 10, he wins. Trump, meanwhile, would need to win his seven most favorable (or least unfavorable) states, including five states where Biden currently holds a lead in the polling average. Their paths meet (for now) in the tipping-point state of Pennsylvania, where Biden’s lead stands at 4.3 points. Planned Parenthood rolls out swing state ad blitz over Ginsburg legacy. Planned Parenthood is launching a swing state ad blitz over the fight to replace the late Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg. © Greg Nash Planned Parenthood rolls out swing state ad blitz over Ginsburg legacy. The group announced Tuesday it will run the digital ads in Arizona, Florida, Michigan and Pennsylvania, four crucial battlegrounds in the presidential election, and that the video will be featured in other swing states in the coming days. The ad, titled "Legacy," is the result of a six-figure buy and says a Trump nominee to fill Ginsburg's seat would likely work against the liberal priorities the late justice had espoused for decades. "An American icon. A champion of women's rights. Donald Trump wants to replace her with another Supreme Court justice before the election, against her dying wish," a narrator says in the ad, referencing remarks from Ginsburg's granddaughter that she wanted to be replaced by a new president. "Threatening coverage for preexisting conditions and reproductive freedom, just like he said he would. We can't let it happen. Not to her legacy. Not to her seat. Not to our health. Not now. Not ever. Take action. Vote." Video: Joe Biden Vows To Nominate Black Woman To Supreme Court If Given Chance (CBS Philadelphia) Georgia county's elections messy, not fraudulent. Florida utility company implodes its last coal plant in shift to clean energy. In the global vaccine race, the U.S. is no longer hold the top spot. No Evidence to Be Optimistic, Says Fmr. Russian Ambassador. Biden expands number of Central American children eligible to apply for asylum. Former Mississippi legislator found dead on same property sister-in-law's body was found. Guatemala: LGBTIQ+ community calls for justice at activist's funeral. President Biden talks cybersecurity and human rights after private meeting with Putin. Biden: 'I think there's a genuine prospect to significantly improve' U.S.-Russia relations. Afghan 'slave' govt won't last days: Taliban eye victory after US exit. Garland DOJ ends criminal inquiry into John Bolton’s book: NYT. Biden sets expectations and delivers warnings in his meeting with Putin. Biden erupts at reporter for asking about Putin; 'The Five' react. Biden: Tone of Putin meeting was 'good, positive' Former U.S. ambassador to Russia on Putin-Biden summit. Watch Joe Biden discuss his meeting with Russia's Putin. Georgia county's elections messy, not fraudulent A monitor who spent months observing election workers in Georgia's most populous county says processes were badly managed but he saw no evidence of fraud. His notes, obtained by AP, challenge allegations of misconduct that have since circulated. (June 16) Associated Press Florida utility company implodes its last coal plant in shift to clean energy The last coal plant in Florida operated by power and light was demolished as part of the utility company’s transition from fossil fuels to more renewable resources. NBC News In the global vaccine race, the U.S. is no longer hold the top spot As more countries surge ahead in the global vaccine race, the U.S. no longer holds the top spot. Hungary, Iceland, Mongolia, and Uruguay are all ahead of the U.S. in terms of the percentage of people with at least one shot. NBC News. Planned Parenthood is just the latest group to roll out an ad campaign centered around the newest Supreme Court vacancy as advocacy groups and Democratic super PACs look to energize the party base in the final sprint to the election. Democrats have howled over Republican efforts to move quickly to fill the vacancy after the GOP blocked President Obama from replacing Justice Antonin Scalia after his death in 2016, the last presidential election year. Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) appeared to garner the votes needed to meet the 50-vote threshold in the Senate after Sen. Mitt Romney (R-Utah), seen as the last of a small handful of potential swing votes, announced he would be open to confirming a Supreme Court pick this year. Only two Republicans have indicated opposition to filling the seat before the election. A Trump pick on the court could shift its balance to a solid 6-3 conservative majority. "This is the fight of our lives for tens of millions of people across the country. A week after the election, the Supreme Court is set to hear a case that could dismantle the Affordable Care Act, the biggest advance for sexual and reproductive health in a generation," said Jenny Lawson, executive director of Planned Parenthood Votes, referencing upcoming hearings on health care and abortion. "If Trump succeeds in filling this seat, his pick could be the deciding vote on civil rights, environmental protections, and access to health care, including abortion," she added. "If we are to protect Ruth Bader Ginsburg's legacy, our health, and our rights, we must kick Donald Trump out of office and take back the Senate. Planned Parenthood Votes and our supporters will not rest until we do." Swing State (Collins Avenue Confidential) (Volume 2) By Steve Milton EBOOK. Product Description Reg Tarry, Florida’s conservative Republican frontrunner in the presidential election, is so deep in the closet that even his hand thinks he's straight. The loneliness is destroying him, and he decides to do the unthinkable: look for a boyfriend in the middle of election season. He meets Clint, a law student who’s as passionate about politics as Reg is, but from the opposite side of the aisle. Clint is a well-known heckler at Reg’s speeches, and he heads a gay pride group t . Product Details Published on: 2015-12-06 Original language: English Number of items: 1 Dimensions: 9.00" h x .23" w x 6.00" l, .32 pounds Binding: Paperback 100 pages 1 of 1 people found the following review helpful. Second in a very enjoyable series By NK Alissa, matchmaker to the hard to satisfy gay surgeons and politicians of Miami, finds the right match again. Wisconsin’s history, impact as a swing state. There is one major reason Illinois native Bob Dirmish, a sophomore in the College of Engineering, is hoping to vote in Wisconsin for the 2020 presidential election: Wisconsin will be considered a swing state. “Illinois … just doesn’t change,” Dirmish said. “Votes still count, and I believe that, but if I have a chance to voice an opinion in a state that doesn’t have a predetermined outcome, and I care about what happens, why would I not take that opportunity to make a difference?” Paul Nolette, an associate professor of political science, explained that current Democratic candidates, former Vice President Joe Biden and Senator Bernie Sanders, have been polling very closely to President Donald Trump for the upcoming election. “It seems almost inevitable that it will be a closely fought election come November,” Nolette said. A swing state, in United States politics, is a state in which Democratic and Republican candidates have similar levels of support, according the Merriam-Webster Dictionary . They are generally considered to have a key role in the outcomes of presidential elections. Other swing states, also known as “battleground states,” that will likely play significant roles in the upcoming election are Arizona, Florida, Michigan, North Carolina and Pennsylvania, according to Newsweek . Arizona holds 11 electoral votes, Florida holds 29, Michigan holds 16, North Carolina holds 15 and Pennsylvania holds 20. According to U.S. News and World Report , Wisconsin will be a “premiere battleground” for the 2020 election. The state, which holds 10 electoral votes, has been thrown into the forefront as Milwaukee will host the 2020 Democratic National Convention in July. Despite uncertain circumstances facing the country due to the COVID-19 pandemic, the DNC has yet to be canceled. “Ensuring the safety of convention attendees and our host community is, and will always be, our top priority,” a March 14 Twitter post by the 2020 Democratic National Convention said. “… That said, we also remain focused on planning a successful convention in July, and nominating the next president and Vice President of the United States here in Milwaukee.” Charles Franklin, director of the Marquette Law School poll, said Wisconsin was once considered part of the industrial Midwest’s “blue wall,” meaning the Democratic presidential candidate often won the state. He said Wisconsin was thought to be an “ace in the hole” for Democrats. Until 2016, Franklin said, the Democratic presidential candidate won the state every election since 1988. It was one of three states, including Michigan and Pennsylvania, traditionally considered “blue states” that President Donald Trump then won in 2016. However, Franklin pointed out that in three of the last five presidential elections, candidates have won Wisconsin by a margin of less than one percentage point. Democrat and former President Barack Obama won Wisconsin in 2008 by 13.91% of votes and by 6.94% of votes in 2012 , according to the Wisconsin Election Commission. Republican and former President George W. Bush nearly won the state in 2000 and 2004, losing by only 0.22% of votes in 2000 and 0.38% of votes in 2004 . Trump won Wisconsin in 2016 by 0.77% of votes . “My point is that if you look at that history, I don’t think Democrats should ever have taken Wisconsin for granted,” Franklin said. Frankin cited the 2010 and 2014 governor’s races as a sign that Wisconsin was progressing toward becoming a swing state. Republican and former Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker won both of these elections, by 5.77% of votes in 2010 and 5.67% in 2014 . When Walker went up for reelection in 2018, he lost to Democrat Gov. Tony Evers by 1.1% of votes . “There was plenty of reason to see the state is very competitive in all of these years and not be swept up in the big Obama victories while ignoring the highly competitive gubernatorial, and for that matter, U.S. Senate races that we had during that period,” Franklin said. Republican U.S. Senator Ron Johnson won the Senate race in 2010 against Democratic incumbent Russ Feingold by 4.84% of votes . In 2016, Johnson won against Feingold a second time, by 3.36% of votes . In 2012, Democratic U.S. Senator Tammy Baldwin won the Senate race against Republican Tommy Thompson by 5.55% of votes . She won by 10.83% of votes in 2018 against Republican Leah Vukmir. Franklin said Wisconsin’s history of a divided elections and state government is an indication that Wisconsin has always had swing state tendencies. “I think we were never a bastion of Democratic strength that we are sometimes seen as being,” Franklin said. “I think as that label — that we were part of the ‘blue wall’ — was ultimately a mistake in branding us.” Nolette said there are several demographic factors that can often predict how red or blue a state is and whether it will be swing state. Race and level of education are two of these factors. “States that tend to have a higher percentage of racial minorities, of college-educated voters, tend to lean blue, and those with fewer college- educated voters that are largely white states or have a higher percentage of white voters than the nation as a whole tend to be redder states.” In Wisconsin, it is estimated that 81.1% of the population is white, with 19.9% of the population identifying as various racial or ethnic minorities, according the U.S. Census Bureau . The country as a whole is estimated to be 60.4% white, with 41.8% identifying as various racial or ethnic minorities. Approximately 29.5% of Wisconsinites have earned a Bachelor’s degree or higher, compared 31.5% of the U.S. as a whole. Swing state Pennsylvania has statistics not entirely different from Wisconsin, with 76.1% of its population estimated to be white and 25.9% being of a racial or ethnic minority. About 30.8% of its population has earned a Bachelor’s degree or higher. The demographic factors in Wisconsin could be comparable to the entire U.S. population, possibly contributing to reasons it is a swing state. Because they have the option, students may being asking themselves whether they should vote in their home state or Wisconsin. “Really think about what issues matter most to you,” Dirmish said. “There’s no guarantee which way (the election) will go this year.” A Looking Into Why Florida Is A Swing-State In Presidential Races. As election day nears, many are eyeing Florida to see if it swings Democrat or Republican. Recent presidential elections have been close, with candidates winning Florida by only a few percentage points. But when it comes to state legislative elections, Republicans often win and dominate the state House and Senate. The last time Florida had a Democratic governor, it was 1991—more than 20 years ago. Florida International University political science professor Kathryn DePalo-Gould says Democrats get more competitive when it comes to presidential elections. "So Florida's considered a battleground state or a swing state because a lot of our statewide elections are decided within one to two percentage points," DePalo-Gould says. In the 2016 presidential election, then-presidential candidate Donald Trump won Florida by securing a 1.2 percentage point lead over Hillary Clinton. And in the 2012 general election, former President Barrack Obama won Florida by nearly one percentage point over Mitt Romney. But for state legislative races, DePalo-Gould says district boundaries often determine who wins. "When you have legislative districts, including these state House and state Senate districts here in Florida, they tend to be drawn to advantage one political party over another," DePalo-Gould says. DePalo-Gould says even though Florida has an amendment to stop partisan gerrymandering, district lines can still be drawn to benefit political parties. "And because the legislature draws these districts every 10 years after the census, Republicans who hold the majority tend to draw districts that are more favorable to them," DePalo-Gould says. Carol Weissert is a political science professor at Florida State University. She says one key difference between state legislative races and presidential ones is money. "Most of the state legislative races would be funded by Disney and the business groups all within the state. Whereas presidential elections draw money from all across the country. We have a lot of Bloomberg money that's being spent in Florida on the 2020 election," Weissert says. Weissert explains more money means a candidate can pay more people to go door to door and put more ads on TV and social media. Weissert also says people may be more knowledgeable about presidential candidates than state legislative ones. Steve Schale was the state director in Florida for the 2008 Obama Biden Campaign. He says another thing that makes Florida a swing state is voter turnout. He says more people are registered as Democrats than Republicans in Florida, but that doesn't mean the state always votes Blue. "So Republicans have an advantage among voters who always vote so if you take those voters who consistently vote in every general election, even though there are more Democrats on the voter file, there are more Republicans that fall into that very likely voter category," Schale says. Schale explains that means Democrats depend on voter turnout to win. De-Palo Gould says mobilizing Florida voters is key to winning a presidential race for either party. "There are 29 electoral votes, and because we're up for grabs, we're not a foregone conclusion to go for the Republican or Democratic candidate, we are this must-win state. And particularly this time around, it's really a must-win state for Trump," De-Palo Gould says.