INTERMISSION ENDS The Rhodes Cook Letter February 2012 The Rhodes Cook Letter FEBRUARY 2012 / VOL. 13, NO. 1 (ISSN 1552-8189) Contents Intermission Ends ............................... .3 Chart & Map: 2012 Republican Primary, Caucus Results . 4 Chart & Map: The Road Ahead: The Remaining 2012 GOP Primary, Caucus Calendar . 5 Chart: Aggregate 2012 Republican Vote. 6 Chart & Line Graph: 2012 Republican Delegate Count. 7 Chart & Line Graph: Cumulative 2012 Republican Primary Vote . 8 Chart: The 2012 GOP ‘Medal’ Count. 8 Chart: The Dwindling GOP Field. 9 Results of Early Events ......................... 10 The Santorum Surge: ‘He Cares Enough to Come’. 10 Chart & Map: Iowa Republican Precinct Caucuses . 10 Chart & Map: New Hampshire Republican Primary. 11 Chart & Map: South Carolina Republican Primary. 12 Chart & Map: Florida Republican Primary. 13 Caucus Problems: The Iowa Reversal . 13 Chart & Map: 2012 Republican Primary, Caucus Turnout: A Mixed Bag. 14 Chart & Bar Graph: The Second Time Around: Romney and Paul . 15 On the Democratic Side ........................ 16 Chart & Bar Graph: ‘Unopposed’ Presidents in the New Hampshire Primary. 16 Chart: 2012 Democratic Primary, Caucus Results . 17 Chart & Bar Graph: How Obama Compares to Recent Presidents: The Economy and the Polls . 18 For the Record ............................. 19 Chart: 2012 Congressional Primary Calendar . 19 Chart: The Changing Composition of the 112th Congress . 20 Chart & Maps: What’s Up in 2012 . 21 Subscription Page .............................. .23 To reach Rhodes Cook: Office Phone: 703-658-8818 / E-mail: [email protected] / Web: www.rhodescook.com “The Rhodes Cook Letter” is published on a bimonthly basis. An individual subscription for six issues is $99. Make check payable to “The Rhodes Cook Letter” and mail it, along with your e-mail address, to P.O. Box 574, Annandale, VA. See the last page of this newsletter for a subscription form. Layout and Graphics by Sue Hoye/ [email protected] All contents are copyrighted ©2012 Rhodes Cook. Use of the material is welcome with attribution, although the author retains full copyright over the material contained herein. The Rhodes Cook Letter • February 2012 2 Intermission Ends our years ago the struggle for the Democratic nomination between Barack Obama and Hillary FClinton was an immediate classic. This year, the Republicans are in the midst of a memorable contest of their own. Already it has made history, in terms of the outsized importance of the Republican candidate debates as well as the rise of a lucrative new system of campaign funding in the form of “super PACs.” And the early GOP primaries and caucuses, rather than quickly resolving the nomination, have ended in a muddle. It is not something that Republicans are used to. For all practical purposes, GOP nominating races over the last quarter century have been decided by the ides of March. If the old rules had been in effect this time, the 2012 nomination would probably have been settled by now in Mitt Romney’s favor. But the former system of a “front-loaded” calendar, set up in a manner to reward a well-heeled, well-organized candidate with early momentum, is no more. It has been replaced this year by a calendar that builds slowly to a climactic round of major state primaries in the spring. And it is aug- mented by Republican rules changes that make it impossible for a candidate to quickly achieve this year’s required delegate majority of 1,144. The new system not only slows the rush to judgment, but gives a dark horse candidate such as Rick Santorum his best chance to win a major party nomination since George McGovern and Jimmy Carter did so on the Democratic side in the 1970s. When Will It End? here is talk these days of a “brokered convention” – one where the nomination might not be Tdecided until the Republican delegates gather in Tampa late this summer. There is even dis- cussion of a “white knight” coming to the rescue of the party, either by entering the array of late spring primaries or by making himself (or herself) available at the convention. However, the window has largely closed for any candidate to get into the race and have an impact on the late primaries. That would have had to have been done near the beginning of February, when this unusual two-week intermission in the GOP race was about to begin. This pause in the campaign was a natural occasion for both candidates and potential candidates alike to assess their status, and either enter or get out of the race. But no candidate has been doing so well or so poorly to spur such a serious recast of the Republican contest. Instead, it has been a time for the present crop of candidates to try and restock their treasuries while focusing their campaigns on the large collection of states that will be voting in the weeks directly ahead. And of course, the intermission period gave time for the quartet of GOP candidates to engage in another presidential debate. In the past, the possibility of a “brokered convention” could qualify as quadrennial fiction writing. Under the current system, though, it might have about a 5% chance of happening. Those are long odds, but there was probably only a 5% chance in 2008 that the Obama-Clinton battle would last the entire primary season. And it did. More likely to happen this year, however, is that the GOP nomination will be settled during the primary season. In the recent past, one candidate has won a key primary or two fairly early in the The Rhodes Cook Letter • February 2012 3 nominating season, then run off a long string of primary victories that drove his opponents from the race and enabled him to quickly nail down the nomination. That is essentially the way it played out for Republicans John McCain in 2008, George W. Bush in 2000, and George H.W. Bush in 1988. The Bushes won virtually every primary and caucus in sight (Continued on Page 7) 2012 Republican Primary, Caucus Results (through Feb. 15) States won by Santorum States won by Romney State won by Gingrich © © Caucus States © © © A total of nine primaries and caucuses were held by the © time this year’s Republican presidential race reached its February intermission. Of these events, Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum each won four, while Newt Gingrich took one. In 2008, these same states broke four each for Romney and John McCain, with one going for Mike Huckabee. However, the only two states that Romney carried in both 2008 and 2012 were Maine and Nevada. Percentage of Primary or Caucus Vote ‘12 Plurality ‘08 Event Date Turnout Bachmann Gingrich Huntsman Paul Perry Romney Santorum Winner (in votes) Winner Iowa Huckabee Jan. 3 121,501 5% 13% 1% 21% 10% 25% 25% Santorum 34 Caucus# (34%) New McCain Hampshire Jan. 10 248,475 - 9% 17% 23% 1% 39% 9% Romney 40,719 (37%) Primary South McCain Carolina Jan. 21 603,770 - 40% - 13% - 28% 17% Gingrich 75,942 (33%) Primary Florida McCain Jan. 31 1,672,634 - 32% - 7% - 46% 13% Romney 242,038 Primary (36%) Nevada Romney Feb. 4 32,894 - 21% - 19% - 50% 10% Romney 9,530 Caucus (51%) Colorado Romney Feb. 7 66,027 - 13% - 12% - 35% 40% Santorum 3,602 Caucus# (60%) Minnesota Romney Feb. 7 48,795 - 11% - 27% - 17% 45% Santorum 8,704 Caucus# (41%) Missouri McCain Feb. 7 251,975 1% x - 12% 1% 25% 55% Santorum 75,172 Primary# (33%) Maine Feb. 4- Romney 5,814 - 7% - 35% - 39% 18% Romney 239 Caucus# 11 (52%) Note: A pound sign (#) indicates that results are based on a non-binding vote that does not have direct bearing on delegate selection. Percentages are rounded to the nearest whole percentage point. A dash (-) indicates that the candidate received less than 0.5% of the vote. An “x” denotes that the candidate was not on the primary ballot. A line represents when the candidate withdrew from the race. For example, Michele Bachmann quit after the Iowa caucus. Source: Web sites of state election authorities in Florida, Missouri, New Hampshire and South Carolina for 2012 primary results. All primary returns are official with the exception of Missouri, where results are nearly complete but unofficial. Caucus results from Colorado, Iowa, Maine and Nevada are from the web sites of the state Republican parties. Caucus results for Minnesota are from the web site of the Washington Post. The Maine results are subject to amendment. The 2008 primary information is from America Votes 28 (CQ Press); the 2008 caucus information is from the June 2008 issue of “The Rhodes Cook Letter.” The Rhodes Cook Letter • February 2012 4 The Road Ahead: The Remaining 2012 GOP Primary, Caucus Calendar There will be a total of 2,286 delegates to the Republican convention this summer in Tampa, with 1,144 needed to nominate. That is an increase of one delegate from the chart on page 4 of the December issue, with the additional delegate in Nebraska. As of Feb. 20, only 115 delegates had been directly allocated, with another 128 in caucus states where the delegate selection process is under way but the delegates not as yet formally allocated. In the states that vote from Feb. 28 through the spring, a total of 2,043 delegates remain to be chosen. A dash (-) indicates that a vote was not taken in 2008, the results from then are unavailable, or the candidate was not listed on the primary ballot. The icon “@” denotes that the date is subject to change. A pound sign (#) indicates that the 2008 turnout figure is an estimate. Mitt Romney States that have held their delegate- withdrew from the Republican race that year in the wake of selection primary or first-round caucus vote the Super Tuesday vote in early February.