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The Rhodes Cook Letter

February 2012 The Rhodes Cook Letter

february 2012 / Vol. 13, No. 1 (ISSN 1552-8189) Contents

Intermission Ends...... 3 Chart & Map: 2012 Republican Primary, Caucus Results ...... 4 Chart & Map: The Road Ahead: The Remaining 2012 GOP Primary, Caucus Calendar ...... 5 Chart: Aggregate 2012 Republican Vote...... 6 Chart & Line Graph: 2012 Republican Delegate Count...... 7 Chart & Line Graph: Cumulative 2012 Republican Primary Vote ...... 8 Chart: The 2012 GOP ‘Medal’ Count...... 8 Chart: The Dwindling GOP Field...... 9 Results of Early Events...... 10 The Santorum Surge: ‘He Cares Enough to Come’...... 10 Chart & Map: Republican Precinct Caucuses ...... 10 Chart & Map: Republican Primary...... 11 Chart & Map: Republican Primary...... 12 Chart & Map: Republican Primary...... 13 Caucus Problems: The Iowa Reversal ...... 13 Chart & Map: 2012 Republican Primary, Caucus Turnout: A Mixed Bag. . 14 Chart & Bar Graph: The Second Time Around: Romney and Paul ...... 15 On the Democratic Side...... 16 Chart & Bar Graph: ‘Unopposed’ Presidents in the New Hampshire Primary. . 16 Chart: 2012 Democratic Primary, Caucus Results ...... 17 Chart & Bar Graph: How Obama Compares to Recent Presidents: The Economy and the Polls ...... 18

For the Record...... 19 Chart: 2012 Congressional Primary Calendar ...... 19 Chart: The Changing Composition of the 112th Congress ...... 20 Chart & Maps: What’s Up in 2012 ...... 21 Subscription Page...... 23

To reach Rhodes Cook: Office Phone: 703-658-8818 / E-mail: [email protected] / Web: www.rhodescook.com “The Rhodes Cook Letter” is published on a bimonthly basis. An individual subscription for six issues is $99. Make check payable to “The Rhodes Cook Letter” and mail it, along with your e-mail address, to P.O. Box 574, Annandale, VA. See the last page of this newsletter for a subscription form. Layout and Graphics by Sue Hoye/ [email protected]

All contents are copyrighted ©2012 Rhodes Cook. Use of the material is welcome with attribution, although the author retains full copyright over the material contained herein.

The Rhodes Cook Letter • February 2012  Intermission Ends

our years ago the struggle for the Democratic nomination between and Hillary FClinton was an immediate classic. This year, the Republicans are in the midst of a memorable contest of their own. Already it has made history, in terms of the outsized importance of the Republican candidate debates as well as the rise of a lucrative new system of campaign funding in the form of “super PACs.” And the early GOP primaries and caucuses, rather than quickly resolving the nomination, have ended in a muddle. It is not something that Republicans are used to. For all practical purposes, GOP nominating races over the last quarter century have been decided by the ides of March. If the old rules had been in effect this time, the 2012 nomination would probably have been settled by now in ’s favor. But the former system of a “front-loaded” calendar, set up in a manner to reward a well-heeled, well-organized candidate with early momentum, is no more. It has been replaced this year by a calendar that builds slowly to a climactic round of major state primaries in the spring. And it is aug- mented by Republican rules changes that make it impossible for a candidate to quickly achieve this year’s required delegate majority of 1,144. The new system not only slows the rush to judgment, but gives a dark horse candidate such as Rick Santorum his best chance to win a major party nomination since George McGovern and Jimmy Carter did so on the Democratic side in the 1970s.

When Will It End?

here is talk these days of a “” – one where the nomination might not be Tdecided until the Republican delegates gather in Tampa late this summer. There is even dis- cussion of a “white knight” coming to the rescue of the party, either by entering the array of late spring primaries or by making himself (or herself) available at the convention. However, the window has largely closed for any candidate to get into the race and have an impact on the late primaries. That would have had to have been done near the beginning of February, when this unusual two-week intermission in the GOP race was about to begin. This pause in the campaign was a natural occasion for both candidates and potential candidates alike to assess their status, and either enter or get out of the race. But no candidate has been doing so well or so poorly to spur such a serious recast of the Republican contest. Instead, it has been a time for the present crop of candidates to try and restock their treasuries while focusing their campaigns on the large collection of states that will be voting in the weeks directly ahead. And of course, the intermission period gave time for the quartet of GOP candidates to engage in another presidential debate. In the past, the possibility of a “brokered convention” could qualify as quadrennial fiction writing. Under the current system, though, it might have about a 5% chance of happening. Those are long odds, but there was probably only a 5% chance in 2008 that the Obama-Clinton battle would last the entire primary season. And it did. More likely to happen this year, however, is that the GOP nomination will be settled during the primary season. In the recent past, one candidate has won a key primary or two fairly early in the

The Rhodes Cook Letter • February 2012  nominating season, then run off a long string of primary victories that drove his opponents from the race and enabled him to quickly nail down the nomination. That is essentially the way it played out for Republicans John McCain in 2008, George W. Bush in 2000, and George H.W. Bush in 1988. The Bushes won virtually every primary and caucus in sight (Continued on Page 7) 2012 Republican Primary, Caucus Results (through Feb . 15) States won by Santorum States won by Romney State won by Gingrich © © Caucus States © © © A total of nine primaries and caucuses were held by the © time this year’s Republican presidential race reached its February intermission. Of these events, Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum each won four, while took one. In 2008, these same states broke four each for Romney and John McCain, with one going for . However, the only two states that Romney carried in both 2008 and 2012 were and .

Percentage of Primary or Caucus Vote ‘12 Plurality ‘08 Event Date Turnout Bachmann Gingrich Huntsman Paul Perry Romney Santorum Winner (in votes) Winner Iowa Huckabee Jan. 3 121,501 5% 13% 1% 21% 10% 25% 25% Santorum 34 Caucus# (34%) New McCain Hampshire Jan. 10 248,475 - 9% 17% 23% 1% 39% 9% Romney 40,719 (37%) Primary South McCain Carolina Jan. 21 603,770 - 40% - 13% - 28% 17% Gingrich 75,942 (33%) Primary Florida McCain Jan. 31 1,672,634 - 32% - 7% - 46% 13% Romney 242,038 Primary (36%) Nevada Romney Feb. 4 32,894 - 21% - 19% - 50% 10% Romney 9,530 Caucus (51%) Romney Feb. 7 66,027 - 13% - 12% - 35% 40% Santorum 3,602 Caucus# (60%) Romney Feb. 7 48,795 - 11% - 27% - 17% 45% Santorum 8,704 Caucus# (41%) McCain Feb. 7 251,975 1% x - 12% 1% 25% 55% Santorum 75,172 Primary# (33%) Maine Feb. 4- Romney 5,814 - 7% - 35% - 39% 18% Romney 239 Caucus# 11 (52%) Note: A pound sign (#) indicates that results are based on a non-binding vote that does not have direct bearing on delegate selection. Percentages are rounded to the nearest whole percentage point. A dash (-) indicates that the candidate received less than 0.5% of the vote. An “x” denotes that the candidate was not on the primary ballot. A line represents when the candidate withdrew from the race. For example, quit after the Iowa caucus.

Source: Web sites of state election authorities in Florida, Missouri, New Hampshire and South Carolina for 2012 primary results. All primary returns are official with the exception of Missouri, where results are nearly complete but unofficial. Caucus results from Colorado, Iowa, Maine and Nevada are from the web sites of the state Republican parties. Caucus results for Minnesota are from the web site of the Post. The Maine results are subject to amendment. The 2008 primary information is from America Votes 28 (CQ Press); the 2008 caucus information is from the June 2008 issue of “The Rhodes Cook Letter.”

The Rhodes Cook Letter • February 2012  The Road Ahead: The Remaining 2012 GOP Primary, Caucus Calendar There will be a total of 2,286 delegates to the Republican convention this summer in Tampa, with 1,144 needed to nominate. That is an increase of one delegate from the chart on page 4 of the December issue, with the additional delegate in . As of Feb. 20, only 115 delegates had been directly allocated, with another 128 in caucus states where the delegate selection process is under way but the delegates not as yet formally allocated. In the states that vote from Feb. 28 through the spring, a total of 2,043 delegates remain to be chosen. A dash (-) indicates that a vote was not taken in 2008, the results from then are unavailable, or the candidate was not listed on the primary ballot. The icon “@” denotes that the date is subject to change. A pound sign (#) indicates that the 2008 turnout figure is an estimate. Mitt Romney States that have held their delegate- withdrew from the Republican race that year in the wake of selection primary or first-round caucus vote the vote in early February. As a result, he was not an active candidate in many of the later contests, although in a States voting from Feb. 28 through March 6 number of them his name remained on the ballot. In contrast, Ron Paul stayed in the 2008 race through the end of the primary season although he did not win a single event. His 24% share in States voting after March 6th four years ago reflects the result of a presidential primary.

Date Event Delegates ‘08 GOP Turnout Romney ‘08 Paul ‘08 Feb. 28 Primary 29 541,035 35% 4% Feb. 28 Primary 30 869,169 39% Won 6% March 3 Washington Caucus 43 - 16% out of race 22% March 6 Caucus 27 13,703 44% Won 17% Primary 76 963,541 30% 3% Idaho Caucus 32 - - 24% Primary 41 500,550 51% Won 3% North Dakota Caucus 28 9,785 36% Won 21% Primary 66 1,095,917 3% out of race 5% Primary 43 335,054 25% 3% Primary 58 553,815 24% 6% Primary 17 39,843 5% out of race 7% Primary 49 489,252 4% out of race 4% March 6-10 Caucus 29 3,200 - - March 10 Caucus 40 19,516 3% out of race 11% Guam Convention 9 - - - No. Marianas Convention 9 - - - Virgin Islands Caucus 9 - - - March 13 Primary 50 522,155 18% 3% Primary 40 143,286 2% out of race 4% Amer. Samoa Caucus 9 - - - Caucus 20 - - - March 17 Missouri Caucus 52 - - - March 18 Puerto Rico Caucus 23 - - - March 20 Primary 69 899,422 29% 5% March 24 Primary 46 161,169 6% out of race 5% April 3 Primary 37 320,989 7% out of race 6% Primary @ 155 1,362,322 2% out of race 5% Primary 42 410,607 2% out of race 5% Dist. of Col. Primary 19 6,211 6% out of race 8% The Rhodes Cook Letter • February 2012  Date Event Delegates ‘08 GOP Turnout Romney ‘08 Paul ‘08 April 24 Primary 28 151,604 33% 4% Primary 17 50,239 33% 4% Primary 95 642,894 28% 6% Primary 72 816,928 - out of race 16% Primary 19 26,996 4% out of race 7% May 8 Primary 46 412,684 5% out of race 8% Primary 55 517,583 - out of race 7% Primary 31 119,034 4% out of race 5% May 15 Nebraska Primary 35 136,648 - out of race 13% Primary 28 353,476 - out of race 14% May 22 Primary 36 229,153 14% 5% Primary 45 197,793 5% out of race 7% June 5 California Primary 172 2,932,811 35% 4% Primary 26 95,730 - out of race 22% Primary 50 566,201 28% 5% Primary 23 110,939 - out of race 14% South Dakota Primary 28 60,964 3% out of race 17% June 26 Primary 40 296,061 89% Won 3% Sources: Delegate totals are originally from the Republican National Committee; primary and caucus dates from the Federal Election Commission, with updates for both from the web site of Frontloading HQ. Aggregate 2012 Republican Vote (through Feb . 15) In the early going of the 2012 Republican presidential race, Mitt Romney and Newt Gingrich have both run better in primaries than caucuses, as measured by their percentage of the vote in each. On the other hand, Rick Santorum and Ron Paul have fared better in caucuses than primaries. But since 10 times more votes have been cast in the GOP primaries than the caucuses thus far this year, Romney and Gingrich are running one-two in the overall popular vote count. Primary Vote Caucus Vote Total Popular Vote Best State Showing Votes % Votes % Votes % Mitt Romney 1,105,737 40% 79,794 29% 1,185,531 39% Nevada Caucus (50%) Newt Gingrich 801,607 29% 37,227 14% 838,834 27% South Carolina Primary (40%) Rick Santorum 488,172 18% 82,714 30% 570,886 19% Missouri Primary (55%) Ron Paul 283,340 10% 55,228 20% 338,568 11% Maine Caucus (35%) Jon Huntsman* 50,386 2% 785 - 51,171 2% New Hampshire Primary (17%) Rick Perry* 13,537 - 12,609 5% 26,146 1% Iowa Caucus (10%) Herman Cain* 12,316 - 45 - 12,361 - South Carolina Primary (1%) Michele Bachmann* 6,498 - 6,074 2% 12,572 - Iowa Caucus (5%) Gary Johnson* 2,134 - 8 - 2,142 - Missouri Primary (0.2%) Others/Uncommitted 13,127 - 547 - 13,674 - - TOTAL VOTE 2,776,854 275,031 3,051,885 Note: An asterisk (*) indicates candidates who had left the race by Feb. 15, but were still on the ballot in the early primary states. Source: Web sites of state election authorities in Florida, Missouri, New Hampshire and South Carolina for primary results. All primary returns are official with the exception of Missouri, where results are nearly complete but unof- ficial. Caucus results from Colorado, Iowa, Maine and Nevada are from the web sites of the state Republican parties. Caucus results from Minnesota are from the web site of . The Maine results are subject to amendment.

The Rhodes Cook Letter • February 2012  (Continued from Page 4) once they got hot. In 2008, McCain lost a few contests on Super Tuesday and one thereafter, but was accumulating bushels of delegates at the same time. That quick, final shift in the course of the race could happen again this year, especially if Romney were to win Michigan and Arizona Feb. 28, then dominate balloting across the country March 6 in 2012’s down-sized version of Super Tuesday. But the new process cou- 2012 Republican Delegate Count pled with the millions of dollars that all four GOP (through Feb . 20) contenders appear to have 100- available through their Gingrich super PACs - could also Paul 75- lead to a long war of attri- Romney tion. It may not be as long Santorum as the epic battle between 50- and in 1976, which went through the entire 25- (Number of Delegates) primary season and then on to the convention. But 0- it would be no surprise at January 10 January 21 January 31 February 4 this point if the 2012 GOP DELEGATE RACE BY TIME PERIOD contest becomes the lon- Delegates (Cumulative total of delegates won) gest running since then. Delegates chosen through: Gingrich Paul Romney Santorum Others January 10 12 - 3 7 - 2 Metro vs . Main Street January 21 37 23 3 9 - 2 January 31 87 23 3 59 - 2 lready, each of the February 4 115 29 8 73 3 2 ARepublican candi- The delegate count is based on delegates directly allocated as a result of a primary dates has found a geo- or caucus vote. It does not include delegate projections based on non-binding straw graphical base of sorts. votes held in conjunction with first-round caucus action in Colorado, Iowa, Maine and Minnesota. In these states, delegates will be formally determined at a later Romney has won in the stage of the caucus process. The two delegates listed as “Others” were won by Jon Northeast (New Hamp- Huntsman. shire and Maine), large DELEGATE RACE BY STATE and multi-faceted Florida, State (Allocation Total Gingrich Paul Romney Santorum Others and the Mormon West Method) Delegates (Nevada). New Hampshire 12 - 3 7 - 2 (Proportional) Santorum has dominated South Carolina 25 23 - 2 - - voting thus far in the (WTA S/CD) agrarian Midwest (with Florida (WTA 50 - - 50 - - victories in Iowa, Minne- statewide) sota and Missouri) plus a Nevada 28 6 5 14 3 - portion of the Mountain (Proportional) West (Colorado). TOTAL 115 29 8 73 3 2 Newt Gingrich has car- Note: In terms of delegate allocation, “WTA (statewide)” indicates that all delegates ried the only state to vote were awarded on a winner-take-all basis to the first place finisher in the statewide thus far in the Deep South primary. “WTA (S/CD)” indicates that delegates were awarded to the winner of the (South Carolina), a neigh- statewide vote as well as the winner in each congressional district.

The Rhodes Cook Letter • February 2012  Cumulative 2012 Republican Primary Vote 1.2M- (through Feb . 20) 1.1M- bor of his home 1 M- state of Georgia. 900K- Gingrich Paul Ron Paul is the only 800K- one of the four 700K- Romney Republican candi- 600K- Santorum dates yet to win an 500k- event. But he has (Primary Totals) Vote 400K- shown particular 300K- appeal in caucus 200K- states on or near the 100K- nation’s northern 0- tier, such as Iowa, January 10 January 21 January 31 February 7 Maine and Minne- Virtually every presidential nomination, Democrat and Republican, since the rise of primaries in the 1970s sota. He also ran has been won by the candidate who was the highest vote-getter in the primaries. In that regard, Mitt well in the primary Romney has set the pace in the early going in this year’s Republican race. After falling slightly behind Newt Gingrich after South Carolina in the cumulative primary vote count, Romney recaptured the lead in New Hampshire, with a landslide victory in Florida. He headed into the February intermission with an advantage of more where the state’s than 300,000 primary votes over Gingrich and 600,000 over Rick Santorum in the ongoing nationwide tally. motto is the libertar- Cumulative (Cumulative primary vote in thousands) ian-friendly, “Live Primary Votes Primaries Turnout Plurality Free or Die.” Paul through: Gingrich Paul Romney Santorum finished second in January 10 NH 248 23 57 98 23 Romney by 41 k all of these states January 21 SC 852 267 135 266 126 Gingrich by 2 k except Iowa, where January 31 FL 2,525 802 253 1,042 349 Romney by 240 k he ran a close third. February 7 MO* 2,777 802 283 1,106 488 Romney by 304 k Drilling deeper into Note: An asterisk (*) indicates that the Missouri primary was non-binding and has no direct impact the numbers, it is on delegate selection in the state. Newt Gingrich was not on the ballot in Missouri. Gingrich’s plurality in the cumulative primary vote after the South Carolina balloting on Jan. 21 was 1,772. evident that Santo- That is why it is listed as “2 k.” rum and Romney Source: Results are from the web sites of election authorities in Florida, Missouri, New Hampshire are appealing to and South Carolina. All results are official, with the exception of Missouri, where returns are nearly different constitu- complete but unofficial. encies within the Republican Party. It was first appar- The 2012 GOP ‘Medal’ Count ent with their virtual (through Feb . 20) tie in Iowa. San- In 2008, Mitt Romney sometimes referred to his showings in terms of Olympic medals - gold for first, silver for second, bronze for third. It reflected his background as a key torum won nearly organizer of the 2002 Winter Olympics in Salt Lake City. Using that same terminology, two-thirds of the Romney has “medaled” in all nine events so far this year - the only candidate to do 99 counties, but so. Romney swept the First Second Third Total ‘Top 3’ five leading coun- (‘Gold’) (‘Silver’) (‘Bronze’) Finishes 4 4 1 ties (in terms of size Mitt Romney 9 of the Republican (FL, ME, NV, NH) (CO, IA, MO, SC) (MN) 4 3 caucus vote), led by Rick Santorum 0 7 Polk County (Des (CO, IA, MN, MO) (FL, ME, SC) 3 3 Moines). In short, Ron Paul 0 6 the vote in the (ME, MN, NH) (IA, MO, NV) Hawkeye State came 1 2 1 Newt Gingrich 4 down to Romney’s (SC) (FL, NV) (CO) strength in the met- 1 Jon Huntsman 0 0 1 ropolitan areas ver- (NH)

The Rhodes Cook Letter • February 2012  sus Santorum’s appeal in the rural areas and small towns, Main Street America if you will. And that dynamic has been frequently repeated in the contests that followed. Romney carried the two leading counties in New Hampshire - Hillsborough (Manchester) and Rockingham (Portsmouth), both in the populous southeast corner of the state. He won the two leading counties in Nevada - Clark (Las Vegas) and Washoe (Reno) - the second leading county in South Carolina (Charleston), and 19 of the 20 leading counties in Florida (again measured by the volume of the GOP primary vote). Florida by far is the most populous state to have voted in the Republican presidential nominating campaign and Romney’s victory there was the most impressive of any candidate anywhere thus far. He carried virtually every county of note in south, central and north Florida, with the exception of Escambia County (Pensacola) in the western tip of the panhandle. It went for Gingrich. But under- scoring the metro-rural divide in the voting, Gingrich carried one more county in Florida than Rom- ney, even though the latter won a nearly quarter-million vote landslide. Yet just one week after Romney showed his vote-getting ability in Florida’s largest population cen- ters, he hit his nadir Feb. 7 in the nation’s rural heartland. Not only did he lose all three events to Santorum that day, but in terms of counties won, he went zero for Minnesota and zero for Missouri. For those interested in exact numbers, there are 114 counties in Missouri plus two cities that report their own returns (St. Louis and Kansas City), while there are 87 counties in Minnesota. Add the two together and that is more than 200 counties in two heartland states where Romney failed to carry a single county in Republican voting. Nor did he fare much better in Colorado the same day, where his vote was largely concentrated in the metro area. To be sure, there are reasons why the results went as they did. Colorado and Minnesota held rela- tively low-turnout caucuses, while Missouri’s vote was a non-binding primary with no delegates directly or indirectly at stake. Santorum made a significant effort in all three states; Romney did not. But that was Romney’s choice, a rather strange one for a candidate noted for his large campaign chest and depth of organization. In addition, Colorado and Minnesota had backed Romney in 2008, and he finished a close third that same year in Missouri behind John McCain and Mike Huckabee. If anything, the recent results have shown that The Dwindling GOP Field the 2012 version of Mitt Since last summer, the Republican presidential field has been reduced in size by Romney is not an easy sell more than half. Four of the five major contenders who have left the race endorsed to conservative small town other active candidates. Mitt Romney has won the support of “mainstream” entries, Tim Pawlenty and Jon Huntsman. Newt Gingrich has been endorsed by the more voters, the historic base of conservative duo of Herman Cain and Rick Perry. Michele Bachmann has not made an the Republican Party since endorsement. its early days. Withdrawal Candidate Candidate Reason To be sure, if Romney is Date Endorsed the party’s nominee this Follows distant 3rd place finish in IA Tim Pawlenty 8/14/11 Mitt Romney fall, it is unlikely that he GOP straw poll would lose any GOP votes Follows charges of sexual harassment Herman Cain 12/3/11 Newt Gingrich along Main Street America and an extramarital affair to Barack Obama. But Michele Follows poor 6th place finish in IA 1/4/12 - he could lose some to a Bachmann caucuses conservative third party Jon Follows distant 3rd place finish in NH 1/16/12 Mitt Romney alternative, if there is one, Huntsman primary and low poll standing in SC or even more likely, to Follows poor finishes in IA and NH Rick Perry 1/19/12 Newt Gingrich apathy. and low poll standing in SC

The Rhodes Cook Letter • February 2012  THE SANTORUM SURGE: ‘He Cares Enough to Come’

oney, organization and ideology all play major roles in determining primary and caucus out- Mcomes. But the often underestimated act of physically campaigning in a state can be a sig- nificant factor as well. It is a concept immortalized by Nelson Rockefeller in his 1964 presidential primary campaign in Oregon, where his slogan was: “He Cares Enough to Come.” It was an apt description of the per- sonal attention that the New York governor alone devoted to the state among that year’s crop of Republican candidates. And it paid off handsomely. Rockefeller scored a badly needed primary vic- tory before he headed south for a less successful rendezvous with in California. Iowa Republican Precinct Caucuses

Counties (January 3, 2012) Counties won by Santorum Counties won by Perry Vote % Carried Counties won by Romney County Tied RICK SANTORUM 29,839 25% 64 Counties won by Paul Mitt Romney 29,805 25% 16 Ron Paul 26,036 21% 16 Newt Gingrich 16,163 13% - Rick Perry 12,557 10% 2 Michele Bachmann 6,046 5% -

Jon Huntsman 739 1% - Linn Others 316 0% - Dallas Johnson Scott TOTAL VOTE 121,501 Polk Santorum Plurality 34 Note: Based on final results compiled by the Republican Party of Iowa from 1,766 of 1,774 precincts. The vote in one of Iowa’s 99 counties ended in a tie between Ron Paul and Rick Santorum.

This year’s Iowa Republican precinct caucuses Jan. 3 were an instant classic. Mitt Romney led the caucus night tally by 8 votes out of more than 120,000 cast. But when the count was finalized by the state party in the middle of the month, Santorum had emerged on top by 34 votes. However, the results from eight precincts were never submitted, leading many to call the outcome a “virtual tie.” Romney and Santorum took two different routes to their Iowa standoff. Santorum followed the course blazed by many dark horse candidates since Jimmy Carter by virtually camping in the state as he assiduously courted voters. Romney had unsuccessfully mounted a similar type of campaign in Iowa in 2008, but this time relied on a late blitz of media advertising and personal appearances. In the end, he carried only 16 of the state’s 99 counties compared to Santorum’s 64. But Romney won most of the counties with the heaviest caucus turnouts. Meanwhile, Santorum’s greatest success was in rural and small-town Iowa, particularly areas with a large evangelical population. % of State County City Turnout Bachmann Gingrich Paul Perry Romney Santorum ‘12 Winner ‘08 Winner Vote STATEWIDE 121,501 100.0% 5% 13% 21% 10% 25% 25% Santorum Huckabee (34%) LEADING COUNTIES Polk Co. Des Moines 21,838 18.0% 4% 13% 23% 9% 28% 22% Romney Huckabee (36%) Linn Co. Cedar Rapids 8,730 7.2% 5% 12% 24% 9% 29% 21% Romney Romney (31%) Scott Co. Davenport 5,970 4.9% 3% 14% 20% 5% 34% 24% Romney Romney (31%) Johnson Co. Iowa City 4,668 3.8% 3% 10% 31% 5% 34% 15% Romney Romney (31%) (Des Moines Dallas Co. 4,318 3.6% 5% 14% 16% 12% 33% 20% Romney Romney (32%) suburbs) Note: The list of “Leading Counties” includes the five with the highest number of votes cast in the 2012 Iowa Republican precinct caucuses. The vote itself reflects the results of a non-binding straw vote held in conjunction with the precinct caucuses. Sources: Web site of the Republican Party of Iowa for final 2008 caucus results; web site of the Washington Post for final 2012 caucus results by county.

The Rhodes Cook Letter • February 2012 10 This year, Rick Santorum, has best appropriated the concept, if not the slogan itself. He virtually camped in Iowa during 2011 in advance of his narrow victory there. And the Washington Post reported that on the eve of the caucus voting in Colorado and Minnesota Feb. 7, the number of campaign events by Santorum in each state since last June matched that of Mitt Romney, Newt Gin- grich and Ron Paul combined. Santorum carried both states as well as the non-binding primary in Missouri that day, where again he was the prime participant. Other candidates this year have sought to parlay the “cares enough to come” theme into victory. Paul nearly succeeded in Maine, where he had already begun campaigning before the Florida pri- mary had been held. He very well could have won the state’s caucuses earlier this month if Rom- ney had not made an 11th hour appearance in the state to rally his troops. New Hampshire Republican Primary (January 10, 2012)

Counties Vote % Counties won by Romney Carried Counties won by Paul MITT ROMNEY 97,591 39% 9 Ron Paul 56,872 23% 1 Jon Huntsman 41,964 17% - Grafton Rick Santorum 23,432 9% - Newt Gingrich 23,421 9% - Rick Perry 1,764 1% - Merrimack Others 3,431 1% - Strafford TOTAL VOTE 248,475 Rockingham Romney Plurality 40,719 Hillsborough

The big surprise in this year’s New Hampshire GOP primary was there was no surprise. Mitt Romney essentially led from beginning to end, and none of his challengers was able to mount a last minute surge that would have thrown his victory into doubt. Instead, Romney won by 16 percentage points over runner-up Ron Paul, and swept nine of New Hampshire’s 10 counties. Paul carried the other, far northern Coos County, which scrapes the Canadian border. In the process, Romney broke out of his 2008 beachhead in populous southeastern New Hampshire, the site of the only two counties he could carry statewide against John McCain (Hillsborough and Rockingham). Nor was the battle this time for second place close, as Paul ran ahead of third-place finisher Jon Huntsman in all 10 counties. The former Utah governor had hoped for better, having run a New Hampshire-focused campaign that featured more than 100 events in the state. Less than a week after the primary balloting, Huntsman dropped his presidential bid in favor of Romney. % of State ‘12 County City Turnout Gingrich Huntsman Paul Romney Santorum ‘08 Winner Vote Winner STATEWIDE 248,475 100.0% 9% 17% 23% 39% 9% Romney McCain (37%) LEADING COUNTIES Hillsborough Co. Manchester 75,482 30.4% 9% 16% 23% 41% 9% Romney Romney (35%) Rockingham Co. Portsmouth 62,598 25.2% 9% 15% 20% 46% 8% Romney Romney (37%) Merrimack Co. Concord 29,668 11.9% 10% 20% 24% 33% 10% Romney McCain (39%) Strafford Co. Dover 17,709 7.1% 9% 16% 25% 35% 13% Romney McCain (37%) Grafton Co. Hanover 14,397 5.8% 11% 22% 25% 30% 9% Romney McCain (45%) Note: The list of “Leading Counties” includes the five with the highest number of votes cast in the 2012 New Hampshire Republican presidential primary. Sources: Web site of the New Hampshire secretary of state for official 2008 and 2012 presidential primary results, although this year’s results are subject to small changes.

The Rhodes Cook Letter • February 2012 11 South Carolina Republican Primary (January 21, 2012) Spartanburg Counties Greenville Vote % Carried NEWT GINGRICH 244,065 40% 43 Mitt Romney 168,123 28% 3 Lexington Horry Rick Santorum 102,475 17% - Ron Paul 78,360 13% - Herman Cain 6,338 1% -

Others 4,409 1% - Charleston TOTAL VOTE 603,770 Counties won by Gingrich Gingrich Plurality 75,942 Counties won by Romney

Mitt Romney roared into South Carolina off a big win in New Hampshire, spawning media speculation that he was on the verge of wrap- ping up the Republican presidential nomination after just the first three events. But by the time South Carolina had voted, that talk was for the moment muted. Newt Gingrich surged ahead of Romney in the final days of the primary campaign, boosted by an endorsement from Rick Perry, two strong debate performances, and hefty spending by his super PAC, Winning Our Future. On primary day, the result was not even close. Gingrich swept 43 counties to Romney’s three. Comic relief in South Carolina was provided by Stephen Colbert, who adopted the Herman Cain ballot line to run an anti-super PAC campaign. The two drew several thousand spectators to a Charleston rally a day before the primary. But the results did not encourage the pair to go national. The Cain/Colbert ballot line drew 2% of the GOP primary vote in Charleston County, and 1% statewide.

% of State County City Turnout Gingrich Paul Romney Santorum ‘12 Winner ‘08 Winner Vote

STATEWIDE 603,770 100.0% 40% 13% 28% 17% Gingrich McCain (33%) LEADING COUNTIES Greenville Co. Greenville 77,270 12.8% 40% 16% 25% 18% Gingrich Huckabee (29%) Charleston Co. Charleston 47,013 7.8% 33% 14% 36% 15% Romney McCain (44%) (Columbia Lexington Co. 43,968 7.3% 37% 13% 31% 18% Gingrich McCain (33%) suburbs) Horry Co. Myrtle Beach 40,671 6.7% 46% 10% 30% 13% Gingrich McCain (33%) Spartanburg Co. Spartanburg 38,216 6.3% 40% 15% 22% 21% Gingrich Huckabee (34%) Note: The list of “Leading Counties” includes the five with the highest number of votes cast in the 2012 South Carolina Republican presi- dential primary. Sources: Web site of the South Carolina State Election Commission for official 2008 and 2012 presidential primary results.

To be sure, on the ground campaigning by a candidate tends to have the greatest impact in low-turn- out caucus states and smaller primary states. It works best when one candidate largely has the terrain to himself, with a message that can galvanize a large cadre of voters. And it has tended to prove most effective in the states that vote early in the year, which are often held one at a time before massive media buys become necessary to deal with the glut of primaries. But this year’s spread out nominating calendar and the still crowded Republican field could encourage candidates to “cherry pick” states – by focusing their time and energy on those where they feel they have the best chance of doing well. That could even apply to Romney, who in spite of his vaunted money and organization, basically by- passed the action in Colorado, Minnesota and Missouri. Who knows, the defining difference in a num- ber of these upcoming states could well be who “cares enough to come.”

The Rhodes Cook Letter • February 2012 12 Florida Republican Primary (January 31, 2012)

Counties Vote % Duval Carried MITT ROMNEY 776,159 46% 33 Newt Gingrich 534,121 32% 34 Rick Santorum 223,249 13% - Ron Paul 117,461 7% - Others 21,644 1% - Hillsborough Pinellas TOTAL VOTE 1,672,634 Romney Plurality 242,038

Counties won by Romney Palm Beach Counties won Gingrich

Miami-Dade

If Mitt Romney goes on to win the Republican presidential nomination, he will have Florida to thank. Ten days after decisively losing the South Carolina primary to Newt Gingrich, Romney roared back to easily win the contest in Florida. In the process, he reestablished himself as the clear front-runner for his party’s nomination. Romney was aided by a well-funded, negative advertising campaign against Gingrich, two strong debate performances, and the active support of an array of GOP establishment leaders, who sang the praises of Romney while vilifying Gingrich. In the end, Romney swept all the major population centers in Florida. Many of them he carried by wide margins, led by Miami-Dade County, a Cuban-American stronghold where he rolled up more than 60% of the vote. Gingrich actually carried one more county in Florida than Romney, but the former House speaker’s success was largely lim- ited to sparsely populated counties in the northern part of the state. Rick Santorum and Ron Paul downplayed Florida, a response both to the state GOP’s winner-take-all method of delegate allocation as well as the large campaign chests needed to effectively compete in the nation’s fourth most populous state. % of State ‘12 ‘08 County City Turnout Gingrich Paul Romney Santorum Vote Winner Winner STATEWIDE 1,672,634 100.0% 32% 7% 46% 13% Romney McCain (36%) LEADING COUNTIES Miami-Dade Co. Miami 114,722 6.9% 27% 5% 61% 6% Romney McCain (49%) Pinellas Co. St. Petersburg 103,974 6.2% 24% 10% 49% 15% Romney McCain (38%) Hillsborough Co. Tampa 90,592 5.4% 28% 8% 48% 16% Romney McCain (37%) Duval Co. Jacksonville 88,104 5.3% 39% 7% 40% 13% Romney Romney (41%) Palm Beach Co. West Palm Beach 83,225 5.0% 28% 7% 54% 10% Romney McCain (39%) Note: The list of “Leading Counties” includes the five with the highest number of votes cast in the 2012 Florida Republican presi- dential primary. Sources: Web site of the Florida secretary of state for official 2008 and 2012 presidential primary results.

CAUCUS PROBLEMS: THE IOWA REVERSAL

p and down and all around the 2012 Republican presidential campaign has gone. It has probably been the Ucraziest nominating race in the last generation. And from this vantage point, the weirdest event of all thus far was the changing outcome in Iowa – from an 8-vote caucus night “victory” for Mitt Romney Jan. 3 to a 34-vote advantage for Rick Santorum more than two weeks later when the vote was finalized. The state party actually threw up its hands at the end and said no winner could be definitively declared since the results from all precincts could not be retrieved. It expressed congratulations to both candidates.

The Rhodes Cook Letter • February 2012 13 In a half century of observing presidential nominating campaigns, this writer has never seen anything like this. Not just the unusual closeness of the vote, but the inability of the party officials counting the votes to determine a true winner. The nebulous result was an embarrassment to the in particular and the entire caucus process in general. Besides that, several other points stand out. First, the Iowa situation was not fair to Santorum. Rather than coming into New Hampshire off an apparent victory, he entered the state basically becalmed. It was Rom- ney who possessed the momentum, getting extensive credit for scoring an ever so narrow victory in hostile terrain. It is arguable that the initial interpretation of the Iowa result pushed Romney up 2012 Republican Primary, Caucus Turnout: and Santorum down by A Mixed Bag several percentage points in the Granite State. It prob- (through Feb . 20) ably cost the latter a chance Turnout up - States where number at third place, or even a of votes cast was higher than ‘08 momentum-producing sec- Turnout down - States where number ond heading off to South of votes cast was lower than ‘08 Carolina. And it helped Romney swell his winning percentage in New Hamp- shire to an imposing 39%, which aided him in craft- ing an image as the GOP’s inevitable nominee, come what may. A second point: the chang- ing Iowa outcome exposed Turnout in the Republican primaries and caucuses started strong this year. But it has been on a downturn from Florida on, with the single exception of a slight uptick for the low-turnout the murky world of caucus Maine caucuses in early February. A pound sign (#) indicates that this year’s primary in Missouri vote-counting. In primary was non-binding in terms of delegate selection, unlike the state’s contest in 2008. states, the elections are vir- 2008 GOP 2012 GOP Change, 2008-12 Event ‘12 Winner tually always administered Turnout Turnout In votes In % points by the states themselves, which have long experi- Iowa Caucus 119,184 121,501 + 2,317 + 2% Santorum ence in conducting them. New Hampshire Primary 239,793 248,475 + 8,682 + 4% Romney In caucus states, the ballot- South Carolina Primary 445,499 603,770 + 158,271 + 36% Gingrich ing is nearly always over- Florida Primary 1,949,498 1,672,634 - 276,864 - 14% Romney seen by the parties, which Nevada Caucus 43,578 32,894 - 10,684 - 25% Romney have comparatively little Colorado Caucus 70,229 66,027 - 4,202 - 6% Santorum experience in putting on a Minnesota Caucus 62,828 48,795 - 14,033 - 22% Santorum statewide election. Missouri Primary# 588,844 251,975 - 336,869 - 57% Santorum Altogether, eight of 1,774 Maine Caucus 5,446 5,814 + 368 + 7% Romney precincts failed to submit TOTAL 3,524,899 3,051,885 - 473,014 - 13% their official caucus vote to the Iowa GOP. But believe Total (without MO) 2,936,055 2,799,910 - 136,145 - 5% it or not, that is a much Sources: Primary turnouts in 2008 are from America Votes 28 (CQ Press), with caucus turnouts higher rate of complete- from the June 2008 issue of “The Rhodes Cook Letter.” The latter were considered as complete as possible at the time. This year’s primary turnouts are based on results from the web sites ness than ever exists in of state election authorities in Florida, Missouri, New Hampshire and South Carolina. They are some caucus states, where based on official results with the exception of Missouri. Caucus turnouts in 2012 are based on a final tally with less than results from the web sites of Republican state parties in Colorado, Iowa, Maine and Nevada, as 95% of all voting sites is not well as the web site of the Washington Post for caucus results in Minnesota. unusual. The Rhodes Cook Letter • February 2012 14 Unfortunately for the The Second Time Around: Romney and Paul caucus process, snafus (through Feb . 20) in vote counting have Both Mitt Romney and Ron Paul are faring become a staple of this better in the Republican presidential race this year’s GOP nominat- year than they did in 2008. In the nine events held thus far in 2012, Romney has received ing season. In Nevada, 40% - 140,000 more votes than last time, while the caucus night tally increasing his share from 30% to 39% of the was particularly slow 30% - total primary and caucus vote. Meanwhile, to be counted, even Paul has gained 180,000 votes from 2008, while growing his share from 4% to 11% though the state party 20% - of the total vote. Paul has gained ground had barely 30,000 bal- from four years ago in every state that has lots to contend with. 10% - voted so far this year. However, Romney has drawn fewer votes than 2008 in six of the nine, including the last five that have voted. In Maine, the result 0%- that voted through Feb. 20)

(% of in Vote the niine states His landslide victory in Florida is basically of a week-long straw Romney Romney Paul Paul responsible for his improved showing overall. vote was released Feb. ‘08 ‘12 ‘08 ‘12 11 by the state GOP. Romney ‘08 Romney ‘12 Change, 2008-12 But it was without Event In % the results from an Votes % Votes % In votes points array of towns whose votes were missing Iowa Caucus 30,021 25% 29,805 25% - 216 - or entered incorrectly New Hampshire Primary 75,675 32% 97,591 39% + 21,916 + 7% and a whole county South Carolina Primary 68,142 15% 168,123 28% + 99,981 + 13% (Washington) that Florida Primary 604,932 31% 776,159 46% + 171,227 + 15% postponed its caucus Nevada Caucus 22,646 51% 16,486 50% - 6,160 - 1% because of question- Colorado Caucus 42,218 60% 23,012 35% - 19,206 - 25% able weather. The Minnesota Caucus 25,990 41% 8,222 17% - 17,768 - 24% statewide tally showed Romney with a lead Missouri Primary# 172,329 29% 63,864 25% - 108,465 - 4% of just 194 votes over Maine Caucus 2,826 52% 2,269 39% - 557 - 13% Ron Paul, prompting TOTAL 1,044,779 30% 1,185,531 39% + 140,752 + 9% protests from both the Paul ‘08 Paul ‘12 Change, 2008-12 missing jurisdictions Event In % and Paul supporters. Votes % Votes % In votes points

+ + Over the next fort- Iowa Caucus 11,841 10% 26,036 21% 14,195 11% night, the vote was revised a time or two. New Hampshire Primary 18,346 8% 56,872 23% + 38,526 + 15% Done ostensibly to South Carolina Primary 16,154 4% 78,360 13% + 62,206 + 9% include as many out- Florida Primary 62,887 3% 117,461 7% + 54,574 + 4% standing ballots as Nevada Caucus 6,084 13% 6,175 19% + 91 + 6% possible, it ultimately Colorado Caucus 5,910 8% 7,759 12% + 1,849 + 4% showed Romney’s lead Minnesota Caucus 9,852 16% 13,228 27% + 3,376 + 11% down to 115 votes. Missouri Primary# 26,464 4% 30,647 12% + 4,183 + 8% But it was not enough to deter various crit- Maine Caucus 999 18% 2,030 35% + 1,031 + 17% ics from arguing that TOTAL 158,537 4% 338,568 11% + 180,031 + 7% it might be best for Note: A pound sign (#) indicates that the Missouri primary this year was non-binding in terms of Maine to dump the delegate selection. caucus process alto- Sources: Primary results in 2008 are from America Votes 28 (CQ Press), and thus far this year from the web sites of state election authorities in Florida, Missouri, New Hampshire and South gether next time and Carolina. All of the 2012 primary results are based on official returns with the exception of join most of the rest of Missouri. Caucus results in 2008 and 2012 are from the web sites of the Republican state parties the country in holding in the caucus states, with the exception of Nevada in 2008 and Minnesota in 2012. There, results a presidential primary. are from the web sites of and Washington Post, respectively.

The Rhodes Cook Letter • February 2012 15 On The Democratic Side

ot many trees have been sacrificed to describe this year’s Democratic primary campaign, Nas Barack Obama is the fourth president in the last three decades to glide unopposed to renomination. Running without primary opposition put his three fortunate predecessors on the path to reelection. And for Obama, it is a very considerable asset in his 2012 campaign. Yet when compared to the other recent presidents who escaped intraparty opposition - Republican Ronald Reagan in 1984, Democrat Bill Clinton in 1996, and Republican George W. Bush in 2004 – Obama’s vote-getting performance in New Hampshire’s historic first-in-the-nation presidential pri- mary Jan. 10 was a mixed bag at best. New Hampshire allows ready access to its primary ballot for candidates of all stripes – the president was joined by a baker’s dozen – and write-in votes were easy to cast. Ultimately, Obama’s share of his party’s primary vote in New Hampshire was 81% – slightly ahead of Bush’s showing (80%) eight years ago, but below the vote shares for Reagan (86%) in 1984 and Clinton (84%) in 1996. In addition, Obama this time drew fewer primary votes in the Granite State than any of the other three ‘Unopposed’ Presidents in the presidents. Clinton received more New Hampshire Primary than 75,000 votes, Reagan more ) than 65,000, and Bush nearly 54,000. 100 K- Obama’s total this time was barely 49,000. 75 K- And Obama received less than 300 write-in votes in the 2012 Republi- 50 K- can primary, compared to the nearly

2,000 GOP write-ins garnered by 25 K- President Clinton in 1996 and by

Obama himself in 2008. won Votes in Recent NH Primaries ( 0- To be sure, there was no visible Ronald Reagan Bill Clinton George W. Bush Barack Obama effort to get out the vote for the Barack Obama is the fourth president in the last 30 years to run essen- tially unopposed for renomination. The other three - Ronald Reagan, president last month. No Obama Bill Clinton and George W. Bush - all went on to win reelection. Like yard signs were to be seen across the others, Obama handily won his party’s first-in-the nation New Hampshire primary. However, the actual number of votes cast for the New Hampshire countryside, a Obama in last month’s Granite State balloting was lower than for any scene sharply at odds with the ubiq- of the other three presidents. uitous signs for the various Republi- New Hampshire Primary President’s President’s can candidates. In short, the Obama President Election Turnout team did not appear to see the need Vote % to use the primary to test their voter Ronald Reagan (R) 1984 65,033 75,570 86% turnout operation in what will be a Bill Clinton (D) 1996 76,797 91,562 84% swing state (albeit with only 4 elec- George W. Bush (R) 2004 53,962 67,624 80% toral votes) this fall. Barack Obama (D) 2012 49,080 60,642 81% Source: America Votes (CQ Press) for New Hampshire primary results But there was one bit of encourag- through 2008. The website of New Hampshire election authorities for ing news for the president out of this year’s official returns, which could be subject to small changes. New Hampshire. His scant tally of Republican write-ins was not much The Rhodes Cook Letter • February 2012 16 different than the total of 257 write-in votes cast for George W. Bush in the 2004 New Hampshire Democratic primary. The presidential election that year proved to be highly polarized but ended in a narrow Bush triumph. If Obama should win in 2012, New Hampshire provides a hint that it could be a similar sort of victory.

Other Aspects of Democratic Voting

bama has dominated the voting in the early Democratic caucus states with near unanimity. OIn early primary states, where there have been other options on the ballot, the non-Obama vote has been in the 10% to 20% range. In Missouri, the largest number of non-Obama votes (6%) was cast for the “Uncommitted” line. In New Hampshire, where there was no such line, the bulk of the non-Obama ballots in the Demo- cratic primary were write-in votes for Republican candidates (totaling 10% of the entire Democratic tally). Ron Paul showed the greatest cross-over appeal among New Hampshire Democratic primary voters, receiving 2,289 write-ins, followed by Mitt Romney with 1,815 and Jon Huntsman with 1,238. Rick Santorum and Newt Gingrich lagged far behind with 303 and 276, respectively. With Obama’s renomination assured from the start, results from the Democratic caucuses so far this year have been even murkier and less precise than on the Republican side. In Iowa, the state Dem- ocratic party reported a turnout figure of “over 25,000” for its Jan. 3 precinct caucuses, with “98.5% of delegates elected to county conventions… pledged to the President.” There was no mention of who (or what) the other 1.5% were for. In Nevada, the state Democrats placed caucus turnout Jan. 21 at “more than 12,000 volunteers,” with Obama taking 98.3% of the delegates elected to the next stage of the Nevada cau- 2012 Democratic Primary, Caucus Results cus process. That with 90% of the precincts (through Feb . 20) reporting.

In South Carolina, where the Democratic With President Barack Obama running unopposed for presidential primary has been replaced by renomination, the Democratic presidential nominating process is much more laid back this year than its Republican what are called “precinct reorganization” counterpart. There were no Democratic presidential primaries meetings, every voter who attends is being in Florida or South Carolina. In Minnesota, results from the early February Democratic caucuses are not scheduled to be counted as a vote for Obama. The meetings released until early March. A pound sign (#) indicates that the began in late January and will continue in turnout figure is a conservative estimate. early March. Percentage of Vote Event Date Turnout Obama Others Not surprisingly, voter turnout in the early Iowa Caucus Jan. 3 25,000# 98% 2% Democratic contests is a shadow of what New Hampshire it was four years ago, when Obama and Primary Jan. 10 60,642 81% 19% waged a closely contested Nevada Caucus Feb. 4 12,000# 98% 2% race that lasted the entire primary season. Missouri Primary Feb. 7 72,921 88% 12% When Reagan, Clinton and Bush ran unop- Sources: Web sites of state election authorities in Missouri and posed for renomination, the overall number New Hampshire for presidential primary results. Returns from New Hampshire are considered official, but are subject to small changes. Results from Missouri are nearly complete but unofficial. Caucus results are from the web sites of Democratic state parties in Iowa and Nevada.

The Rhodes Cook Letter • February 2012 17 of votes cast in their party’s primaries was roughly only half as large as four years earlier when each had a contested battle for nomination. Yet so far this year, the falloff has been much more severe. In New Hampshire, How Obama Compares to Recent Presidents: the Democratic The Economy and the Polls presidential primary this year drew bare- As the unemployment 10%- ly 20% of the num- rate has edged ber than it did four downward, 8%- President Barack years ago – barely Obama’s presidential 6%- 60,000 voters in approval rating has inched upward. 2012 compared to His current score 4%- nearly 290,000 in is moving closer of the election year) to the mark that 2%- 2008. In Missouri, recent presidents (Unemployment rate in January turnout for the have needed to Ronald Jimmy Bill George Gerald Barack George Democratic presi- win reelection. But Reagan Carter Clinton W. Bush Ford Obama Bush the January 2012 80%- dential primary Feb. unemployment Presidents Who Presidents Who 7 was less than 10% rate of 8.3% is still Won Reelection Lost Reelection more than one 70%- as large as last time percentage point – with less than above the 7.2% 60%- figure in November 75,000 votes cast 1984 when Ronald this month com- Reagan was 50%- pared to 825,000 in reelected. That was the highest election- 40%- ’08. time unemployment rate for any February of the election year) 30%- reelected president Even acknowledg- (Gallup presidential approval rating in since World War II. ing that the turnout Ronald Jimmy Bill George Gerald Barack George for the 2008 Demo- Reagan Carter Clinton W. Bush Ford Obama Bush cratic primaries Pres. Approval Unemployment Rates Election was exceptionally President Years February Poll of January of November of Outcome high, the size of the Election Year Election Year Election Year Obama vote in the Barack Obama (D) 2012 45% 8.3% remaining party PRESIDENTS DEFEATED contests this year Gerald Ford (R) 1976 46% 7.9% 7.8% Lost will bear watching. Jimmy Carter (D) 1980 55% 6.3% 7.5% Lost For if the president George Bush (R) 1992 39% 7.3% 7.4% Lost is to win reelection PRESIDENTS REELECTED this fall, Democrats Ronald Reagan (R) 1984 55% 8.0% 7.2% Won cannot afford to Bill Clinton (D) 1996 53% 5.6% 5.4% Won have lingering prob- George W. Bush (R) 2004 51% 5.7% 5.4% Won lems with grass- Note: Presidential approval ratings are based on the last Gallup Poll of February of the election year, roots enthusiasm as with the exception of Barack Obama’s rating, which reflects a Gallup Poll taken Feb. 13-19, 2012. they so conspicu- Nationwide unemployment rates are based on seasonally adjusted figures. ously did in 2010. Sources: Gallup Poll, Bureau of Labor Statistics.

The Rhodes Cook Letter • February 2012 18 2012 Congressional Primary Calendar

Election Dates State President House Senate Governor The presidential and congressional primary seasons are Primary Runoff each about six months long. The former runs from January Ohio March 6 - X X X to June; the latter from March to September. Beginning with the Ohio primary March 6, there is considerable Alabama March 13 April 24 X X overlap between the two calendars. The majority of states Mississippi March 13 April 3 X X X voting from March to June will hold their presidential and congressional primaries on the same date. Illinois March 20 - X X Maryland April 3 - X X X Texas* April 3 June 5 X X X Election Dates State President House Senate Governor Pennsylvania April 24 - X X X Primary Runoff Indiana May 8 - X X X X Kansas Aug. 7 - X North Carolina May 8 July 17 X X X Michigan Aug. 7 - X X West Virginia May 8 - X X X X Missouri Aug. 7 - X X X Idaho May 15 - X Washington Aug. 7 - X X X Nebraska May 15 - X X X Hawaii Aug. 11 - X X Oregon May 15 - X X Connecticut Aug. 14 - X X Arkansas May 22 June 12 X X Florida Aug. 14 - X X Kentucky May 22 - X X Minnesota Aug. 14 - X X California June 5 - X X X Wisconsin Aug. 14 - X X Iowa June 5 - X Wyoming Aug. 21 - X X Montana June 5 - X X X X Alaska Aug. 28 - X New Jersey June 5 - X X X Arizona Aug. 28 - X X New Mexico June 5 - X X X Vermont Aug. 28 - X X X South Dakota June 5 June 26 X X Massachusetts Sept. 6 - X X Maine June 12 - X X Delaware Sept. 11 - X X X Nevada June 12 - X X New Hampshire Sept. 11 - X X North Dakota June 12 - X X X New York* Sept. 11 - X X South Carolina June 12 June 26 X Rhode Island Sept. 11 - X X Virginia June 12 - X X Note: An asterisk (*) indicates the primary dates in New York Colorado June 26 - X and Texas could be subject to change. Louisiana does not hold Oklahoma June 26 Aug. 28 X a primary. Its electoral process starts with the Nov. 6 general election. A runoff will follow on Dec. 1 if necessary. Utah June 26 - X X X X Georgia July 31 Aug. 21 X Source: Federal Election Commission (as of Feb. 1, 2012). Tennessee Aug. 2 - X X

The Rhodes Cook Letter • February 2012 19 The Changing Composition of the 112th Congress Outside of New York state, special congressional elections have gone true to form in the 2011-12 election cycle. Democrats have held Democratic seats and Republicans have retained GOP seats. The latest example of this trend came Jan. 31, when former Democratic state Sen. Suzanne Bonamici won the Oregon 1st District seat vacated by Democrat David Wu. The latter resigned in August 2011 amid charges of sexual impropriety. With more than $1 million in aid from political arms of the Democratic House leadership, Bonamici cruised to victory over Republican businessman Rob Cornilles, 54% to 40%. Bonamici’s margin of victory was nearly identical to Wu’s 13-point triumph over Cornilles in the 2010 general election. Voter turnout for the January special election in the staunchly Democratic, Portland-area district reached 210,000, by far the most for any such contest in this election cycle. The next special election will be held in the Arizona 8th District for the seat recently vacated by Democratic Rep. Gabrielle Giffords. She submitted her resignation late last month in order to focus on her recovery from an assassination attempt in Tucson a year earlier. Primary elections for Giffords’ seat are scheduled for April 17, with the special election itself on June 12. HOUSE OF SENATE Date and Event REPRESENTATIVES Dems. Reps. Vac. Dems. Reps. Inds. Vac. 2010 ELECTION (Nov. 2) 193 242 51 47 2 Feb. 9, 2011 - Rep. Christopher Lee (R-N.Y. 26) resigns after a“beefcake” 193 241 1 photo of the married congresman appears on the Internet. Feb. 28, 2011 - Rep. Jane Harman (D-Calif. 36) resigns to become president of the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars in 192 241 2 Washington, D.C. May 3, 2011 - Sen. John Ensign (R-Nev.) resigns in midst of Senate Ethics Committee investigation into revelations that the senator had an 51 46 2 1 affair with a female aide who was married to another top aide, and that Ensigns’ parents provided money to the aides’ family. May 9, 2011 - Rep. Dean Heller (R-Nev. 2) resigns after his appointment to the Senate; sworn in the same day to fill the vacancy created by 192 240 3 51 47 2 Ensign’s resignation. May 24, 2011 - Special election in the New York 26th won by Kathy 193 240 2 Hochul (D). June 21, 2011 - Rep. Anthony Weiner (D-N.Y. 9) resigns after admission 192 240 3 of numerous “sexting” tweets. July 12, 2011 - Special election in the California 36th won by Janice 193 240 2 Hahn (D). August 3, 2011 - Rep. David Wu (D-Ore. 1) resign following accusations of “aggressive and unwanted sexual behavior” with a female teen- 192 240 3 ager. Sept. 13, 2011 - Two special House elections: Nevada 2nd won by Mark 192 242 1 Amodei (R); New York 9th won by Bob Turner (R). Jan. 25, 2012 - Rep. Gabrielle Giffords (D-Ariz. 8) resigns to focus on her 191 242 2 recovery from an assassination attempt a year earlier. Jan. 31, 2012 - Special election in the Oregon 1st won by Suzanne 192 242 1 Bonamici (D). … AND THE GOVERNORSHIPS Dems. Reps. Ind. Vac. 2010 GENERAL ELECTION (Nov. 2) 20 29 1 Nov. 16, 2010 - State Senate President Earl Ray Tomblin (D) publicly sworn in as acting governor of West Virginia to fill the vacancy created by the election of Joe Manchin (D) to 20 29 1 the Senate. Dec. 7, 2010 - Lt. Gov. Jack Dalrymple (R) sworn in as governor of North Dakota to fill the 20 29 1 vacancy created by the election of John Hoeven (R) to the Senate. Oct. 4, 2011 - Special gubernatorial election in West Virginia won by Acting Gov. Earl Ray 20 29 1 Tomblin (D). Oct. 22, 2011 - Gubernatorial election in Louisiana won by Gov. Bobby Jindal (R). 20 29 1 Nov. 8, 2011 - Gubernatorial election in Kentucky won by Gov. Steve Beshear (D) and in 20 29 1 Mississippi by Lt. Gov Phil Bryant (R).

The Rhodes Cook Letter • February 2012 20 What’s Up in 2012 There have been three straight “wave” elections since 2006, in which dozens of congressional seats at a time have moved from one party to another. The waves in 2006 and 2008 were decidedly Democratic. The one in 2010 was historically Republican. There would need to be another pro-Democratic wave in 2012 if the party is to regain control of the House of Representatives, and it would probably take at least a strong Democratic tide this year for the Democrats to maintain control of the Senate. The list of this year’s gubernatorial elections does not include Republican incumbent Scott Walker of Wisconsin, who is the subject of a recall effort.

Governorships Senate Seats

* * * * * * * * * * * * * * Republican Democrat Independent *States with an open Senate or Gubernatorial race

‘08 Presidential House Seats Seats Up At Stake in 2012 Vote Dem. Rep. Governors Senators Obama by 7% 192 242 11 (8 D, 3 R) 33 (21 D, 10 R, 2 Inds.) NORTHEAST Connecticut Obama by 23% 5 Joe Lieberman (Ind.) - OPEN Delaware Obama by 25% 1 Jack Markell (D) Tom Carper (D) Maine Obama by 17% 2 Olympia Snowe (R) Maryland Obama by 25% 6 2 Ben Cardin (D) Massachusetts Obama by 26% 10 Scott Brown (R) New Hampshire Obama by 10% 2 John Lynch (D) - OPEN New Jersey Obama by 16% 7 6 Robert Menendez (D) New York Obama by 27% 21 8 Kirsten Gillibrand (D) Pennsylvania Obama by 10% 7 12 Bob Casey (D) Rhode Island Obama by 28% 2 Sheldon Whitehouse (D) Vermont Obama by 37% 1 Peter Shumlin (D) Bernard Sanders (Ind.) West Virginia McCain by 13% 1 2 Earl Ray Tomblin (D)@ Joe Manchin (D) 63 32 MIDWEST Illinois Obama by 25% 8 11 Indiana Obama by 1% 3 6 Mitch Daniels (R) - OPEN Richard Lugar (R) Iowa Obama by 10% 3 2 Kansas McCain by 15% 4 Michigan Obama by 16% 6 9 Debbie Stabenow (D) Minnesota Obama by 10% 4 4 Amy Klobuchar (D) Missouri McCain by 0.1% 3 6 Jay Nixon (D) Claire McCaskill (D) Nebraska McCain by 15% 3 Ben Nelson (D) - OPEN North Dakota McCain by 9% 1 Jack Dalrymple (R)@ Kent Conrad (D) - OPEN Ohio Obama by 5% 5 13 Sherrod Brown (D) South Dakota McCain by 8% 1 Wisconsin Obama by 14% 3 5 Herb Kohl (D) - OPEN 35 65

The Rhodes Cook Letter • February 2012 21 ‘08 Presidential House Seats Seats Up At Stake in 2012 Vote Dem. Rep. Governors Senators Obama by 7% 192 242 11 (8 D, 3 R) 33 (21 D, 10 R, 2 Inds.) SOUTH Alabama McCain by 22% 1 6 Arkansas McCain by 20% 1 3 Florida Obama by 3% 6 19 Bill Nelson (D) Georgia McCain by 5% 5 8 Kentucky McCain by 16% 2 4 Louisiana McCain by 19% 1 6 Mississippi McCain by 13% 1 3 Roger Wicker (R) North Carolina Obama by 0.3% 7 6 Bev Perdue (D) - OPEN Oklahoma McCain by 31% 1 4 South Carolina McCain by 9% 1 5 Tennessee McCain by 15% 2 7 Bob Corker (R) Texas McCain by 12% 9 23 Kay Bailey Hutchison (R) - OPEN Virginia Obama by 6% 3 8 Jim Webb (D) - OPEN 40 102 WEST Alaska McCain by 22% 1 Arizona McCain by 9% 2 5 Jon Kyl (R) - OPEN California Obama by 24% 34 19 Dianne Feinstein (D) Colorado Obama by 9% 3 4 Hawaii Obama by 45% 2 Daniel Akaka (D) – OPEN Idaho McCain by 25% 2 Montana McCain by 2% 1 Brian Schweitzer (D) - OPEN Jon Tester (D) Nevada Obama by 12% 1 2 Dean Heller (R)@ New Mexico Obama by 15% 2 1 Jeff Bingaman (D) - OPEN Oregon Obama by 16% 4 1 Utah McCain by 28% 1 2 Gary Herbert (R) Orrin Hatch (R) Washington Obama by 17% 5 4 Christine Gregoire (D) - OPEN Maria Cantwell (D) Wyoming McCain by 32% 1 John Barrasso (R) 54 43 Note: Gubernatorial and Senate incumbents who were not elected and assumed their position since the 2010 election are indicated by “@.” The partisan House totals are as of February 20, 2012. They reflect a House vacancy in the Arizona 8th District, where Democrat Gabrielle Giffords has resigned her seat. Source: America Votes 27 and 28 (CQ Press) for 2008 presidential election results and the list of governorships and Senate seats up in 2012.

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The Rhodes Cook Letter • February 2012 23