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FEDERAL RACES PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES Both national and state-level polls show Biden with leads in almost every swing state. But states like Florida, Georgia, and North Carolina are still firmly either candidate’s to win.
Likely Tipping 2016 538 Forecasted Crystal Ball 2020 Points Winner Vote Share Rating Winner Arizona Biden, 50.9% Trump Leans D 11 electoral votes Trump, 47.8% Colorado Biden, 55.3% Clinton Likely D 9 electoral votes Trump, 42.9%
Florida Biden, 50.4% 29 electoral Trump Toss-Up votes Trump, 48.8%
Georgia Biden, 49.9% Trump Toss-Up 16 electoral votes Trump, 49.4% Michigan Biden, 53.5% Trump Leans D 16 electoral votes Trump, 45.4% North Carolina Biden, 50.6% Toss-Up 15 electoral votes Trump Trump, 48.7%
Pennsylvania Biden, 52.2% 20 electoral Trump Leans D votes Trump, 47.1%
Wisconsin Biden, 53.5% Trump Leans D 10 electoral votes Trump, 45.6%
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UNITED STATES SENATE The current party makeup of the US Senate is 53 Republicans, 45 Democrats, and 2 independents who caucus with the Democrats. If Biden wins, Democrats need a minimum net gain of three seats for a majority (In which case Vice President Harris would cast the deciding votes).
Likely Tipping Incumbent Democratic Republican Crystal Ball 2020 Points Party Candidate Candidate Rating Winner
Alabama D D. Jones (i) T. Tuberville Likely R
Arizona R M. Kelly M. McSally (i) Leans D
Colorado R J. Hickenlooper C. Gardner (i) Likely D
Georgia - Regular R J. Ossoff D. Perdue (i) Toss-Up
Georgia - Special R R. Warnock K. Loeffler (i) Toss-Up
Iowa R T. Greenfield J. Ernst (i) Leans D
Maine R S. Gideon S. Collins (i) Leans D
Michigan D G. Peters (i) J. James Likely D
North Carolina R C. Cunningham T. Tillis (i) Toss-Up
South Carolina R J. Harrison L. Graham (i) Leans R
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ARIZONA RACES UNITED STATES HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES: RACES TO WATCH The partisan makeup of Arizona’s current US House delegation is 5 Democrats and 4 Republicans.
Possible Incumbent Democratic Republican Crystal Ball 2020 Swing District Party Candidate Candidate Rating Winner
Congressional District 1 D T. O’Halleran (i) T. Shedd Likely D
Congressional District 6 R H. Tipirneni D. Schweikert Toss-Up (i)
ARIZONA PROPOSITIONS
Proposition Jurisdiction Summary Passed?
Prop 207 Statewide Legalization of Recreational Marijuana
Prop 208 Tax increase on high incomes for K-12 Statewide (Invest in Ed) funding
Continue a property tax supporting the Prop 449 Maricopa County Maricopa County Special Health Care District
Increase the base spending limit for Prop 481 Pima County Pima Community College
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ARIZONA CORPORATION COMMISSION In this election, there is one ballot - with three seats up for election. Candidates do not run head-to-head. The top three vote-getters win a seat.
Candidate Party 2020 Winner
B. Mundell D
S. Stanfield D
A..Tovar D L. Marquez Peterson (i) R
J. O’Connor R
E. Sloan R
Current Commission R (4-1)
ARIZONA STATE LEGISLATURE
CNAnalysis rates the State Senate as "Leans Democrat" and the House as “Tilt Democrat”. Republicans currently hold 17 seats in the State Senate, Democrats hold 13. Republicans hold 31 seats in the State House while Democrats hold 29.
CNAnalysis does not provide seat-by-seat projections in the House, so for those we turned to Javelina’s in-house numbers maven, Justin Plumb. Note that in the State House, each district elects two Representatives with the top two finishers winning seats.
Even though there are two seats, both parties are strategically running only one candidate in a few districts.
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ARIZONA STATE HOUSE: RACES TO WATCH House Incumbent Democratic Republican 2020 Justin’s Rating District Party Candidate/s Candidate/s Winners
G. Peten (i) Seat 1: Safe D 4 D/D J. John C. Fernandez (i) Seat 2: Lean D
W. Blackman C. Evans Seat 1: Likely R 6 R/R (i) A. Babbott (Ind) Seat 2: Lean D B. Barton
M. Finchem (i) Seat 1: Safe R 11 R/R F. Perez B. Roberts (i) Seat 2: Toss-Up
J. Weninger (i) Seat 1: Safe R 17 R/D J. Pawlik (i) L. Harris Seat 2: Likely D
A..Kern (i) Seat 1: Safe R 20 R/R J. Schweibert S. Bolick (i) Seat 2: Toss-Up
B. Pingerelli Seat 1: Safe R 21 R/R K. Knecht K. Payne (i) Seat 2: Toss-Up
J. Chaplik Seat 1: Safe R 23 R/R E. Kurland J. Kavanagh (i) Seat 2: Lean R
Overall
Chamber Odds R (31-29) Leans D
ARIZONA STATE SENATE: RACES TO WATCH Senate Incumbent Democratic Republican CAnalysis Justin’s 2020 District Party Candidate Candidate Rating Rating Winner
6 R F. French W. Rogers Toss-Up Toss-Up
11 R J. Mendoza V. Leach (i) Safe R Likely R
17 R A.J. Kurdoglu J.D. Mesnard (i) Tilt D Toss-Up
20 R D. Ervin P. Boyer (i) Tilt D Toss-Up
28 R C. Marsh K. Brophy-McGee (i) Tilt D Toss-Up
Overall Chamber R (17-13) Lean D Toss-Up Odds YOUR ELECTION SCORECARD
COLORADO RACES UNITED STATES HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES: RACES TO WATCH The partisan makeup of Colorado’s current US House delegation is 4 Democrats and 3 Republicans.
Most Likely Incumbent Democratic Republican Crystal Ball 2020 to Flip Party Candidate Candidate Rating Winner
Congressional District 3 R D. Mitsch Busch L. Boebert Leans R
COLORADO PROPOSITIONS
Proposition Jurisdiction Summary Passed?
Repeal Gallagher - prevent residential Amendment A Statewide property tax cuts
Bars noncitizens and under 18s from voting in Amendment 76 Statewide local elections
Prop EE Statewide Vaping products tax
Prop 113 Statewide National Popular Vote
Prop 114 Statewide Reintroduce Gray Wolves to Colorado
Prop 115 Statewide Statewide abortion ban
Prop 116 Statewide Income tax cut
Establish paid family and medical leave Prop 118 Statewide program
Measure 2A Denver Fund anti-climate change programs
Measure 2B Denver Fund housing and homelessness services
Measure 2H Denver Establish citywide broadband Internet
Measure 2J Denver Remove the pit bull ban
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COLORADO STATE LEGISLATURE
CN Analysis rates both chambers “Safe Democrat.” Democrats currently hold 19 seats in the State Senate, Republicans hold 16. Democrats hold 41 seats in the State House while Republicans hold 24. Only 18 of the 35 State Senate seats are on the ballot in 2020 while all 65 State House seats are on the ballot.
COLORADO STATE HOUSE: RACES TO WATCH Incumbent Democratic Republican CNAnalysis 2020 House District Party Candidate Candidate Rating Winner
27 D B. Titone (i) V. Pyne Leans D
38 R D. Ortiz R. Champion (i) Likely D
43 R J, Mitkowski K. Van Winkle (i) Leans R
47 D B. Buentello (i) S. Luck Leans D
Overall Chamber D (41-24) Safe D Odds
COLORADO STATE SENATE: RACES TO WATCH Senate District Incumbent Democratic Republican CAnalysis 2020 Party Candidate Candidate Rating Winner
8 R K. Hanlon R. Rankin (i) Leans R
25 R P. Dickerson K. Priola (i) Tilt D
27 R C. Kolker S. Staiert Tilt D
Overall Chamber D (19-16) Safe D Odds