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October Surprise? the Special Program of Weekly Message Tracking Says, ‘Maybe’ October 6, 2010October | Page 6, 2010 2 the October Surprise Tracking Program

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October Surprise? the Special Program of Weekly Message Tracking Says, ‘Maybe’ October 6, 2010October | Page 6, 2010 2 the October Surprise Tracking Program October 6, 2010October | Page 6, 2010 1 October 6, 2010 October Surprise? The special program of weekly message tracking says, ‘maybe’ October 6, 2010October | Page 6, 2010 2 The October Surprise tracking program This presentation is based on the first of four weekly national surveys tracking the attitudes of likely voters prior to the November 2nd, 2010 midterm elections. This survey was conducted by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner for Democracy Corps. The survey was of 816 likely voters (697 landline, 119 cell phone) conducted October 2-4, 2010. The margin of error for this survey is +/-3.5 percentage points. October 6, 2010October | Page 6, 2010 3 Movement is real Page 3 | Greenberg Quinlan Rosner October 6, 2010October | Page 6, 2010 4 The congressional vote time series I know it is a long way off, but thinking about the elections in 2010, if the election for U.S. Congress were held today, would you be voting for (DEMOCRATIC HOUSE CANDIDATE) or (REPUBLICAN HOUSE CANDIDATE)? Democratic Candidate Republican Candidate October 2010 50 51 49 50 49 48 47 47 48 48 46 46 46 47 45 46 43 44 45 45 44 44 43 43 43 42 4342 43 43 42 42 40 40 41 40 Mar-09 May-09 Jul-09 Sep-09 Nov-09 Jan-10 Mar-10 May-10 Jul-10 Sep-10 Net 5 +10 +2 +11 -1 +4+4 +2 -1 -3 +1 -2 -3 -6 -7 Difference + -7 -10 -6 *Note: In the landline sample, the candidate names were inserted preceded by party identification. In unopposed districts, the generic was used for the opposition. For the cell phone sample, both candidates were given as generic. October 6, 2010October | Page 6, 2010 5 Thermometer: Republican incumbents slightly down Now, I'd like to rate your feelings toward some people and organizations, with one hundred meaning a VERY WARM, FAVORABLE feeling; zero meaning a VERY COLD, UNFAVORABLE feeling; and fifty meaning not particularly warm or cold. Favorability Mean Total Warm Very Warm October 2010 Inauguration October 2010 60 59 59 58 58 58 57 58 58 57 57 57 56 56 57 54 55 55 55 56 54 50 47 46 45 43 43 43 44 43 43 41 42 41 41 42 42 39 40 40 40 41 37 35 29 25 25 23 24 23 23 24 23 23 22 21 21 2221 22 22 22 20 20 20 20 19 21 Nov-08 Jan-09 Mar-09 May-09 Jul-09 Sep-09 Nov-09 Jan-10 Mar-10 May-10 Jul-10 Sep-10 *Note: Data from Democracy Corps surveys conducted since the 2008 election. The applicable incumbent name was inserted without party identification. October 6, 2010October | Page 6, 2010 6 Voter choice scales: rise in Democratic strong supporters October 2010 Republican loyalist/supporters 42 42 41 40 40 37 Democratic loyalist/supporters 35 34 33 33 Jun-10 Jul-10 Aug-10 Sep-10 October 6, 2010October | Page 6, 2010 7 Thermometer: State of the economy Now, I'd like to rate your feelings toward some people and organizations, with one hundred meaning a VERY WARM, FAVORABLE feeling; zero meaning a VERY COLD, UNFAVORABLE feeling; and fifty meaning not particularly warm or cold. The state of the economy… Warm Cool 51,000 October 2010 New Jobs 158,000 New Jobs First net job 61,000 growth: 16,000 New Jobs 67,000 New Jobs New Jobs 73 70 70 71 64 64 61 63 63 23 20 21 18 16 16 18 13 13 Jan-10 Mar-10 May-10 Jul-10 Sep-10 Net -46 -60 -57 -38 -43 -42 -54 -55 -46 Difference *Note: Data from Democracy Corps research from 2010 onwards. October 6, 2010October | Page 6, 2010 8 Which better on issues: economy, on your side and deficits Now I am going to ask you something different. I am going to read a list of issues and I want you to tell me whether, overall, you think the Democrats or the Republicans would do a better job with this issue. If you do not know, just tell me and we will move on to the next item. 25 October 2010 +16 +14 Economy 15 +9 +5 +5 On your side 3 4 9 1 2 5 -1 -1 0 -3 -3 -3 -4 -4 Budget deficit -7 -6 -8 -5 -4 -5 -13 -12 -7 -8 -8 -12 -15 -13 -13 -12 -18 -18 -25 Mar-09 May-09 Jul-09 Sep-09 Nov-09 Jan-10 Mar-10 May-10 Jul-10 Sep-10 *Note: Data from Democracy Corps surveys conducted since March 2009. Shows “Democrats – Republicans” net. October 6, 2010October | Page 6, 2010 9 Still ugly Page 9 | Greenberg Quinlan Rosner October 6, 2010October | Page 6, 2010 10 Mood of country still bleak Generally speaking, do you think things in the country are going in the right direction, or do you feel things have gotten pretty seriously off on the wrong track? Financial Right dir e ction Wrong track Crisis 2009 2008 2010 2006 Iraq surge 2008 October 2010 Election Health Care Passage of 2006 85 Address Health Care Election 78 80 75 71 72 73 67 68 64 66 66 66 69 66 63 62 63 63 61 63 63 58 58 58 62 59 55 55 50 50 46 43 41 37 37 34 39 35 36 34 31 30 28 28 28 28 28 29 29 25 25 25 26 23 23 22 22 23 21 17 15 14 10 Jan-06 Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Net -18 -33-42-26 -31 -35-24-41 -43 -41-48-47 -35 -50 -45 -52 -58 -63 -66-75 -33 -11-3 -9 -18 -23 -22 -34 -25 -40-34 -34 Difference *Note: From Democracy Corps surveys conducted over the last several years. Data reflects likely voters. October 6, 2010October | Page 6, 2010 11 Obama approval rating: disapproval still over 50 percent Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as president? Total Approve Total Disapprove Strongly Approve Strongly Disapprove October 2010 54 51 52 52 52 49 49 48 48 48 47 46 46 46 45 45 45 43 42 45 44 43 43 41 39 40 40 36 37 32 30 28 28 28 27 27 26 27 26 Jan-10 Feb-10 Mar-10 Apr-10 May-10 Jun-10 Jul-10 Aug-10 Sep-10 Oct-10 *Note: From Democracy Corps surveys since the 2008 election. Before inauguration, question read: “Do you approve or disapprove of the job being done by Barack Obama as president-elect?” Data represents likely 2010 voters. October 6, 2010October | Page 6, 2010 12 Thermometers: Republicans still better image – but close to parity Now, I'd like to rate your feelings toward some people and organizations, with one hundred Therm. Warm - meaning a VERY WARM, FAVORABLE feeling; zero meaning a VERY COLD, UNFAVORABLE feeling; and fifty meaning not particularly warm or cold. Mean Cool Cool Warm Barack Obama 44 45 48.8 +1 Democratic House incumbent 31 39 50.8 +8 Republican House incumbent 26 41 54.4 +15 Democratic Congress 50 36 41.2 -14 Republicans in Congress 43 33 43.4 -10 Republican candidates for 37 38 Congress and the Senate 47.6 -1 Republican Party 42 38 45.9 -4 Democratic Party 47 37 44.2 -10 75 50 25 0 25 50 75 *Note: Incumbent names were inserted for landline sample. Generic identifier was used for cell sample. October 6, 2010October | Page 6, 2010 13 Thermometers: Obama, parties and congressional parties since Jan. Now, I'd like to rate your feelings toward some people and organizations, with 100 Barack Obama meaning a VERY WARM, FAVORABLE feeling; zero meaning a VERY COLD, Democratic Party UNFAVORABLE feeling; and 50 meaning not particularly warm or cold. Democratic Congress Republican Party 53 Republicans in Congress 51 51 October 2010 51 51 50 48 48 48 49 46 46 46 46 45 45 45 44 44 44 44 43 44 44 44 44 42 43 43 44 42 43 43 44 43 44 43 41 42 41 41 41 41 41 41 41 41 40 40 Jan-10 Feb-10 Mar-10 Apr-10 May-10 Jun-10 Jul-10 Aug-10 Sep-10 Oct-10 *Note: Data represents MEAN ratings, likely 2010 voters. October 6, 2010October | Page 6, 2010 14 Which party better on the issues Now I am going to ask you something different. I am going to read a list of issues and I want you to tell me whether, overall, you think the Democrats or the Republicans would do a better job with this issue. If you do not know, just tell me and we will move on to the next item. 33 35 Health care October 2010 25 Government spending 12 15 7 3 Health care 5 0 1 -6 -5 Government spending -7 -12 -11 -11 -11 -15 -15 -16 -16 -18 -25 Jul-09 Sep-09 Nov-09 Jan-10 Mar-10 May-10 Jul-10 Sep-10 *Note: Data from Democracy Corps surveys conducted since March 2009. Shows “Democrats – Republicans” net. October 6, 2010October | Page 6, 2010 15 Spending/deficits still bigger than big corporations and middle class Now I’m going to read you some pairs of statements. After each pair, please tell me whether the FIRST statement or the SEOCND statement comes closer to your own view, even if neither is exactly right.
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