October Surprise? the Special Program of Weekly Message Tracking Says, ‘Maybe’ October 6, 2010October | Page 6, 2010 2 the October Surprise Tracking Program

October 6, 2010October | Page 6, 2010 1

October 6, 2010

October Surprise? The special program of weekly message tracking says, ‘maybe’ October 6, 2010October | Page 6, 2010 2 The October Surprise tracking program

This presentation is based on the first of four weekly national surveys tracking the attitudes of likely voters prior to the November 2nd, 2010 midterm elections.

This survey was conducted by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner for Democracy Corps. The survey was of 816 likely voters (697 landline, 119 cell phone) conducted October 2-4, 2010.

The margin of error for this survey is +/-3.5 percentage points. October 6, 2010October | Page 6, 2010 3

Movement is real

Page 3 | Greenberg Quinlan Rosner October 6, 2010October | Page 6, 2010 4 The congressional vote time series

I know it is a long way off, but thinking about the elections in 2010, if the election for U.S. Congress were held today, would you be voting for (DEMOCRATIC HOUSE CANDIDATE) or (REPUBLICAN HOUSE CANDIDATE)?

Democratic Candidate Republican Candidate October 2010

50 51 49 50 49 48 47 47 48 48 46 46 46 47 45 46 43 44

45 45 44 44 43 43 43 42 4342 43 43 42 42 40 40 41 40

Mar-09 May-09 Jul-09 Sep-09 Nov-09 Jan-10 Mar-10 May-10 Jul-10 Sep-10

Net 5 +10 +2 +11 -1 +4+4 +2 -1 -3 +1 -2 -3 -6 -7 Difference + -7 -10 -6

*Note: In the landline sample, the candidate names were inserted preceded by party identification. In unopposed districts, the generic was used for the opposition. For the cell phone sample, both candidates were given as generic. October 6, 2010October | Page 6, 2010 5

Thermometer: Republican incumbents slightly down

Now, I'd like to rate your feelings toward some people and organizations, with one hundred meaning a VERY WARM, FAVORABLE feeling; zero meaning a VERY COLD, UNFAVORABLE feeling; and fifty meaning not particularly warm or cold.

Favorability Mean Total Warm Very Warm

October 2010 Inauguration October 2010

60 59 59 58 58 58 57 58 58 57 57 57 56 56 57 54 55 55 55 56 54 50 47 46 45 43 43 43 44 43 43 41 42 41 41 42 42 39 40 40 40 41 37 35

29 25 25 23 24 23 23 24 23 23 22 21 21 2221 22 22 22 20 20 20 20 19 21

Nov-08 Jan-09 Mar-09 May-09 Jul-09 Sep-09 Nov-09 Jan-10 Mar-10 May-10 Jul-10 Sep-10 *Note: Data from Democracy Corps surveys conducted since the 2008 election. The applicable incumbent name was inserted without party identification. October 6, 2010October | Page 6, 2010 6

Voter choice scales: rise in Democratic strong supporters

October 2010 Republican loyalist/supporters 42 42 41 40 40

Democratic loyalist/supporters 35 34 33 33

Jun-10 Jul-10 Aug-10 Sep-10 October 6, 2010October | Page 6, 2010 7 Thermometer: State of the economy

Warm Cool 51,000 October 2010 New Jobs 158,000 New Jobs First net job 61,000 growth: 16,000 New Jobs 67,000 New Jobs New Jobs 73 70 70 71 64 64 61 63 63

23 20 21 18 16 16 18 13 13

Jan-10 Mar-10 May-10 Jul-10 Sep-10

Net -46 -60 -57 -38 -43 -42 -54 -55 -46 Difference

*Note: Data from Democracy Corps research from 2010 onwards. October 6, 2010October | Page 6, 2010 8 Which better on issues: economy, on your side and deficits

Now I am going to ask you something different. I am going to read a list of issues and I want you to tell me whether, overall, you think the Democrats or the Republicans would do a better job with this issue. If you do not know, just tell me and we will move on to the next item.

October 2010 +16 +14 Economy 15 +9 +5 +5 On your side 3 4 5 9 1 2 -1 -1 0 -3 -3 -3 -4 -4 Budget deficit -6 -7 -8 -5 -4 -5 -13 -12 -7 -8 -8 -12 -15 -13 -13 -12

-18 -18 Mar-09 May-09 Jul-09 Sep-09 Nov-09 Jan-10 Mar-10 May-10 Jul-10 Sep-10 -25

*Note: Data from Democracy Corps surveys conducted since March 2009. Shows “Democrats – Republicans” net. October 6, 2010October | Page 6, 2010 9

Still ugly

Page 9 | Greenberg Quinlan Rosner October 6, 2010October | Page 6, 2010 10 Mood of country still bleak

Generally speaking, do you think things in the country are going in the right direction, or do you feel things have gotten pretty seriously off on the wrong track? Financial Right dir e ction Wrong track Crisis 2009 2008 2010 2006 Iraq surge 2008 October 2010 Election Health Care Passage of 2006 85 Address Health Care Election 78 80 75 71 72 73 67 68 64 66 66 66 69 66 63 62 63 63 61 63 63 58 58 58 62 59 55 55 50 50 46

43 41 37 37 34 39 35 36 34 31 30 28 28 28 28 28 29 29 25 25 25 26 23 23 22 22 23 21 17 15 14 10 Jan-06 Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10

Net -18 -33-42-26 -31 -35-24-41 -43 -41-48-47 -35 -50 -45 -52 -58 -63 -66-75 -33 -11-3 -9 -18 -23 -22 -34 -25 -40-34 -34 Difference

*Note: From Democracy Corps surveys conducted over the last several years. Data reflects likely voters. October 6, 2010October | Page 6, 2010 11

Obama approval rating: disapproval still over 50 percent

Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as president?

Total Approve Total Disapprove Strongly Approve Strongly Disapprove

October 2010

54 51 52 52 52 49 49 48 48 48 47 46 46 46 45 45 45 43 42 45 44 43 43 41 39 40 40 36 37 32 30 28 28 28 27 27 26 27 26

Jan-10 Feb-10 Mar-10 Apr-10 May-10 Jun-10 Jul-10 Aug-10 Sep-10 Oct-10

*Note: From Democracy Corps surveys since the 2008 election. Before inauguration, question read: “Do you approve or disapprove of the job being done by Barack Obama as president-elect?” Data represents likely 2010 voters. October 6, 2010October | Page 6, 2010 12 Thermometers: Republicans still better image – but close to parity

Now, I'd like to rate your feelings toward some people and organizations, with one hundred Therm. Warm - meaning a VERY WARM, FAVORABLE feeling; zero meaning a VERY COLD, UNFAVORABLE feeling; and fifty meaning not particularly warm or cold. Mean Cool Cool Warm

Barack Obama 44 45 48.8 +1

Democratic House incumbent 31 39 50.8 +8

Republican House incumbent 26 41 54.4 +15

Democratic Congress 50 36 41.2 -14

Republicans in Congress 43 33 43.4 -10

Republican candidates for 37 38 Congress and the Senate 47.6 -1 Republican Party 42 38 45.9 -4

Democratic Party 47 37 44.2 -10

75 50 25 0 25 50 75 *Note: Incumbent names were inserted for landline sample. Generic identifier was used for cell sample. October 6, 2010October | Page 6, 2010 13

Thermometers: Obama, parties and congressional parties since Jan.

Now, I'd like to rate your feelings toward some people and organizations, with 100 Barack Obama meaning a VERY WARM, FAVORABLE feeling; zero meaning a VERY COLD, Democratic Party UNFAVORABLE feeling; and 50 meaning not particularly warm or cold. Democratic Congress Republican Party 53 Republicans in Congress

51 51 October 2010 51 51 50 48 48 48 49 46 46 46 46 45 45 45 44 44 44 44 43 44 44 44 44 42 43 43 44 42 43 43 44 43 44 43 41 42 41 41 41 41 41 41 41 41 40 40

Jan-10 Feb-10 Mar-10 Apr-10 May-10 Jun-10 Jul-10 Aug-10 Sep-10 Oct-10

*Note: Data represents MEAN ratings, likely 2010 voters. October 6, 2010October | Page 6, 2010 14 Which party better on the issues

Health care October 201025

Government spending 15 12

7 3 Health care 5

0 1 -6 -5 Government spending -7 -15 -12 -11 -11 -11 -15 -16 -16 -18 Jul-09 Sep-09 Nov-09 Jan-10 Mar-10 May-10 Jul-10 Sep-10 -25

*Note: Data from Democracy Corps surveys conducted since March 2009. Shows “Democrats – Republicans” net. October 6, 2010October | Page 6, 2010 15 Spending/deficits still bigger than big corporations and middle class

Now I’m going to read you some pairs of statements. After each pair, please tell me whether the FIRST statement or the SEOCND statement comes closer to your own view, even if neither is exactly right. First statement: I want somebody in Washington First statement: I want somebody in Washington who will fight big corporate special deals and work for who will rein in government spending and deficits the middle class. and stop higher taxes. First statement strongly Second statement strongly

+4 +41 +7

50 51 46 60 44 45 46 27 39 36 24

Middle class Spending Middle class Spending Middle class Spending Total Democrats Independents October 6, 2010October | Page 6, 2010 16 Extremism and Partisanship: Obama more than Palin

Now I’m going to read you some pairs of statements. After each pair, please tell me whether the FIRST statement or the SEOCND statement comes closer to your own view, even if neither is exactly right. First statement: I’m more worried that the Second statement: I’m more worried that the Republican candidates are supporting Sarah Palin’s Democratic candidates are supporting President partisan and extreme agenda. Barack Obama’s partisan and extreme agenda.

First statement strongly Second statement strongly

+7 +33 +8

50 47 43 49 39 31 42 41 30 23 24

Palin's agenda Obama's agenda Palin's agenda Obama's agenda Palin's agenda Obama's agenda Total Democrats Independents October 6, 2010October | Page 6, 2010 17 Better job on the issues: Republicans still dominant

Listening to people 31 17 26 43 +12

Retirement and Social Security 37 21 27 44 +7

Being on your side 38 22 26 40 +2

Health care 46 29 27 40 -6

Bringing the right kind of change 44 26 22 37 -7

The economy 46 26 21 38 -8

Taxes 48 31 19 37 -11

The federal budget deficit 46 27 17 34 -12

Government spending 49 26 18 33 -16

75 50 25 0 25 50 75 October 6, 2010October | Page 6, 2010 18

Message framing can shift the vote

Page 18 | Greenberg Quinlan Rosner October 6, 2010October | Page 6, 2010 19 Three-point shift toward Democrats after messaging

Thinking about the elections this November, if the election for U.S. Congress were held today, would you be voting for (DEMOCRATIC HOUSE CANDIDATE) or (REPUBLICAN HOUSE CANDIDATE)?

Democratic candidate Republican candidate

+6 +3

49 48 43 45 46 42 44 39

Democrat Republican Democrat Republican Initial Revote October 6, 2010October | Page 6, 2010 20 Shifts: Messages move independents and key swing targets

Now let me ask you again, thinking about the elections this November, if the election for U.S. Congress were held today, would you be voting for (DEMOCRATIC HOUSE CANDIDATE) or (REPUBLICAN HOUSE CANDIDATE)?

Demographic Group % Likely Voters Initial Net Vote Net Revote Net Shift

Younger Women 21 -1 +8 +9

Unmarried Women 23 +20 +28 +8

White Unmarried Women 15 -1 +7 +8

West 21 -12 -4 +8

Large Metro 26 +24 +31 +7

Moderates 33 +15 +22 +7

Independents 31 -21 -14 +7

Rising American Electorate 42 +24 +30 +6

Northeast 19 +2 +8 +6

White Seniors 19 -11 -5 +6

White Older Women 25 -7 -1 +6

Women 52 +4 +9 +5

Messages that extend vote

Page 21 | Greenberg Quinlan Rosner October 6, 2010October | Page 6, 2010 22

Democratic messages among broad progressive base (RAE)

Now let me read you some statements that the Democratic candidate might make this fall about the election. After I read each statement, please tell me whether each statement would make you MUCH MORE LIKELY to support the Democratic candidate this November, SOMEWHAT MORE LIKELY, JUST A LITTLE MORE LIKELY, NO MORE LIKELY, or LESS LIKELY to support the Democratic candidate this November. (Change/corporate/middle class) We have to change Washington. That means eliminating the Much more likely special deals and tax breaks won by corporate lobbyists for the oil companies and Wall Street. (REPUBLICAN HOUSE CANDIDATE) has pledged to protect the tax cuts for the top two percent and the big tax breaks for companies who export American jobs. I'll take a different approach with new 29 56 middle class tax cuts to help small businesses and new American industries create jobs. Let's make our country work for the middle class. (America/trade deals/American jobs) My passion is "made in America," working to support small businesses, American companies and new American industries. (REPUBLICAN HOUSE CANDIDATE) has pledged to support the free trade agreements with Colombia, Panama, and South Korea and protect the loophole for companies outsourcing American jobs. I have a different approach 30 54 to give tax breaks for small businesses that hire workers and give tax subsidies for companies that create jobs right here in America. (Not back to Bush/middle class/lost jobs) My priority is to cut middle class taxes, extend unemployment and health insurance for the unemployed, support new industries that create jobs and end tax breaks for exporting jobs. The economy shows signs of improving. But (REPUBLICAN HOUSE CANDIDATE) wants 35 52 to go back to the Bush policies that crushed the middle class. They want to give tax breaks to the wealthy and big corporations. We must rebuild the middle class, not go back to the same old policies for Wall Street that cost us 8 million jobs. (Corporate/middle class) In these tough times, I'm fighting for the middle class. (REPUBLICAN HOUSE CANDIDATE) has promised to protect the tax breaks for companies exporting American jobs and the richest two percent while giving five billion dollars in tax cuts to AIG and Goldman Sachs. I'll 30 49 take a different approach with new middle class tax cuts to help small businesses and new American industries create jobs. Let's make our country work for the middle class. *Note: The “Rising American Electorate” consists of unmarried women, Latinos, and/or youth from the 0 20406080 overall sample. October 6, 2010October | Page 6, 2010 23 Messages for keys: change Washington for middle class, not corporations

Change/corporate/ Much more likely middle class We have to change Washington. 62 62 That means eliminating the 59 special deals and tax breaks won by corporate lobbyists for the oil 48 companies and Wall Street. 42 (REPUBLICAN HOUSE 36 CANDIDATE) has pledged to protect the tax cuts for the top 33 two percent and the big tax breaks for companies who export 26 26 American jobs. I'll take a different 16 18 approach with new middle class 12 tax cuts to help small businesses and new American industries Independents White White Older White White Under Winnable/In create jobs. Let's make our Unmarried Women Seniors 40 reach country work for the middle Women class. October 6, 2010October | Page 6, 2010 24 Messages for keys: support made in America, not trade/export jobs

America/trade deals/ Much more likely American jobs My passion is "made in America," working to support small businesses, American 52 53 48 49 companies and new American 44 industries. (REPUBLICAN 41 HOUSE CANDIDATE) has pledged to support the free trade agreements with Colombia, 28 Panama, and South Korea and 25 25 protect the loophole for companies outsourcing American 17 15 jobs. I have a different approach 12 to give tax breaks for small businesses that hire workers and Independents White White Older White White Under Winnable/In give tax subsidies for companies Unmarried Women Seniors 40 reach that create jobs right here in Women America. October 6, 2010October | Page 6, 2010 25 Messages for key groups: not back to Bush, lost jobs

Not back to Bush/ Much more likely middle class/lost jobs My priority is to cut middle class taxes, extend unemployment and health insurance for the unemployed, support new 44 44 46 industries that create jobs and 39 end tax breaks for exporting jobs. 36 37 The economy shows signs of improving. But (REPUBLICAN 31 HOUSE CANDIDATE) wants to 24 25 go back to the Bush policies that 22 20 crushed the middle class. They 13 want to give tax breaks to the wealthy and big corporations. We must rebuild the middle Independents White White Older White White Under Winnable/In class, not go back to the same Unmarried Women Seniors 40 reach old policies for Wall Street that Women cost us 8 million jobs. October 6, 2010October | Page 6, 2010 26

Democratic attacks on Republicans Now let me read you some statements that the Democratic candidate may make about the Republican candidate. For each statement, please tell me whether this raises very serious doubts, serious doubts, minor doubts, or no real doubt in your own mind about the Republican candidate. Very serious doubts (Social Security/Medicare Cuts) (REPUBLICAN HOUSE CANDIDATE) has pledged to make sweeping cuts, including cuts to off-limit programs for the middle class, like Social Security and Medicare. The Republicans plan to privatize Social Security by shifting those savings to the stock market, and ending guaranteed benefit levels. 22 49 Medicare as we know it will end, as seniors will have to purchase private insurance using a voucher that will cover some of the costs. (Trickle Down Economics) (REPUBLICAN HOUSE CANDIDATE) believes in trickle-down economics and is increasing the deficit by 700 billion dollars with borrowed money from the Chinese in order to keep his pledge to 18 47 cut taxes for the richest two percent; five billion dollars in breaks for Goldman Sachs and AIG and for companies exporting American jobs. That's wrong. The middle class is the heart of our economy. (Trade/Outsourcing) (REPUBLICAN HOUSE CANDIDATE) has pledged to pass as soon as possible free trade agreements with Colombia, Panama and South Korea as key to the official Republican economic plan. This protects the tax breaks for exporting American jobs, and that is not good news for Americans who believe 17 46 American jobs are the key to the future. (Anti-Middle Class/Stimulus) (REPUBLICAN HOUSE CANDIDATE) is not on the side of the middle class. Republicans have voted against extending unemployment benefits for struggling middle-class families, middle- class tax relief, to allow insurance companies to drop people from their health care coverage, and pledge to 17 44 cancel the remaining stimulus that would kill construction jobs and projects.

(Back to Bush/Wealthy Tax Cuts) (REPBULICAN HOUSE CANDIDATE) will force us to go back to the same policies of George W. Bush that drove our economy into the ditch. (He/She) will work to preserve tax breaks for 18 41 companies that send jobs overseas rather than give tax breaks to companies to create jobs here in America for renewable energy and manufacturing. (Palin Agenda/Obstruct Obama) (REPUBLICAN HOUSE CANDIDATE) is a strong supporter of Sarah Palin's agenda for Washington, and with the support of President Bush's top operatives, (He/She) is doing everything 16 41 possible to obstruct President Obama's efforts and tie Congress up in knots. We need a Congressman who listens to people here, not Glenn Beck, and tries to get our economy moving. 0 20406080 October 6, 2010October | Page 6, 2010 27 Strongest attacks on Republicans: Social Security/Medicare

Now let me read you some statements that the Democratic candidate may make about the Republican candidate. For each statement, please tell me whether this raises very serious doubts, serious doubts, minor doubts, or no real doubt in your own mind about the Republican candidate.

Very serious doubts Social Security/Medicare Cuts

(REPUBLICAN HOUSE 60 59 59 CANDIDATE) has pledged to make sweeping cuts, including 48 cuts to off-limit programs for the 41 middle class, like Social Security 39 and Medicare. The Republicans plan to privatize Social Security by shifting those savings to the 26 stock market, and ending 22 guaranteed benefit levels. 15 16 Medicare as we know it will end, 14 as seniors will have to purchase 8 private insurance using a Independents White White Older White White Under Winnable/In voucher that will cover some of Unmarried Women Seniors 40 reach the costs. Women October 6, 2010October | Page 6, 2010 28 Strongest Democratic Doubt Attacks: trickle down, debt from Chinese

Very serious doubts Trickle Down Economics

(REPUBLICAN HOUSE 51 51 52 CANDIDATE) believes in trickle- down economics and is 42 43 increasing the deficit by 700 38 billion dollars with borrowed money from the Chinese in order to keep his pledge to cut taxes for the richest two percent; five billion dollars in breaks for 17 19 17 14 14 Goldman Sachs and AIG and for 10 companies exporting American jobs. That's wrong. The middle Independents White White Older White White Under Winnable/In class is the heart of our Unmarried Women Seniors 40 reach economy. Women October 6, 2010October | Page 6, 2010 29 Strongest Democratic Doubt Attacks: Trade

Very serious doubts Trade/Outsourcing

52 (REPUBLICAN HOUSE 49 51 CANDIDATE) has pledged to 44 pass as soon as possible free 40 trade agreements with Colombia, 36 Panama and South Korea as key to the official Republican economic plan. This protects the tax breaks for exporting 16 American jobs, and that is not 15 13 good news for Americans who 11 11 10 believe American jobs are the key to the future. Independents White White Older White White Under Winnable/In Unmarried Women Seniors 40 reach Women October 6, 2010October | Page 6, 2010 30

Messages that energize core voters

Page 30 | Greenberg Quinlan Rosner October 6, 2010October | Page 6, 2010 31

Summary of Democratic messages for identified Democrats

(Not back to Bush/middle class/lost jobs) My priority is to cut middle class taxes, extend unemployment Much more likely and health insurance for the unemployed, support new industries that create jobs and end tax breaks for exporting jobs. The economy shows signs of improving. But (REPUBLICAN HOUSE CANDIDATE) wants to go back to the Bush policies that crushed the middle class. They want to give tax breaks to the wealthy 54 74 and big corporations. We must rebuild the middle class, not go back to the same old policies for Wall Street that cost us 8 million jobs. (Corporate/middle class) In these tough times, I'm fighting for the middle class. (REPUBLICAN HOUSE CANDIDATE) has promised to protect the tax breaks for companies exporting American jobs and the richest two percent while giving five billion dollars in tax cuts to AIG and Goldman Sachs. I'll 44 67 take a different approach with new middle class tax cuts to help small businesses and new American industries create jobs. Let's make our country work for the middle class. (Change/corporate/middle class) We have to change Washington. That means eliminating the special deals and tax breaks won by corporate lobbyists for the oil companies and Wall Street. (REPUBLICAN HOUSE CANDIDATE) has pledged to protect the tax cuts for the top two percent and 40 70 the big tax breaks for companies who export American jobs. I'll take a different approach with new middle class tax cuts to help small businesses and new American industries create jobs. Let's make our country work for the middle class. (America/trade deals/American jobs) My passion is "made in America," working to support small businesses, American companies and new American industries. (REPUBLICAN HOUSE CANDIDATE) has pledged to support the free trade agreements with Colombia, Panama, and South 40 65 Korea and protect the loophole for companies outsourcing American jobs. I have a different approach to give tax breaks for small businesses that hire workers and give tax subsidies for companies that create jobs right here in America. 0 20406080 October 6, 2010October | Page 6, 2010 32 Strongest Democratic messages among key groups: Forward/Back

Not back to Bush/middle Much more likely class/lost jobs 79 79 74 75 My priority is to cut middle class taxes, extend unemployment and health insurance for the unemployed, support new industries that create jobs and 57 56 end tax breaks for exporting jobs. 54 52 The economy shows signs of improving. But (REPUBLICAN HOUSE CANDIDATE) wants to go back to the Bush policies that crushed the middle class. They want to give tax breaks to the wealthy and big corporations. We must rebuild the middle class, not go back to the same old policies for Wall Street that Democrat (35%) Democrat with Dem Loyalist/ Voting Dem for cost us 8 million jobs. leaners (45%) Supporter (37%) Congress (43%) October 6, 2010October | Page 6, 2010 33 Messages for key: Corporate/middle class

Corporate/ Much more likely middle class 70 71 71 71 We have to change Washington. That means eliminating the special deals and tax breaks won by corporate lobbyists for the oil companies and Wall Street. (REPUBLICAN HOUSE CANDIDATE) has pledged to 42 protect the tax cuts for the top 40 39 40 two percent and the big tax breaks for companies who export American jobs. I'll take a different approach with new middle class tax cuts to help small businesses and new American industries create jobs. Let's make our Democrat (35%) Democrat with Dem Loyalist/ Voting Dem for country work for the middle leaners (45%) Supporter (37%) Congress (43%) class. October 6, 2010October | Page 6, 2010 34 Democratic messages for keys: America/trade deals/American jobs

America/trade Much more likely deals/American jobs 67 My passion is "made in 65 65 66 America," working to support small businesses, American companies and new American industries. (REPUBLICAN HOUSE CANDIDATE) has pledged to support the free trade 40 39 41 39 agreements with Colombia, Panama, and South Korea and protect the loophole for companies outsourcing American jobs. I have a different approach to give tax breaks for small businesses that hire workers and give tax subsidies for companies Democrat (35%) Democrat with Dem Loyalist/ Voting Dem for that create jobs right here in leaners (45%) Supporter (37%) Congress (43%) America. October 6, 2010October | Page 6, 2010 35 Strongest attacks on Republicans: Social Security/Medicare Cuts

Social Security/ Very serious doubts 75 Medicare Cuts 72 71 72

(REPUBLICAN HOUSE CANDIDATE) has pledged to make sweeping cuts, including cuts to off-limit programs for the middle class, like Social Security and Medicare. The Republicans plan to privatize Social Security 36 by shifting those savings to the 32 32 33 stock market, and ending guaranteed benefit levels. Medicare as we know it will end, as seniors will have to purchase private insurance using a voucher that will cover some of Democrat (35%) Democrat with Dem Loyalist/ Voting Dem for the costs. leaners (45%) Supporter (37%) Congress (43%) October 6, 2010October | Page 6, 2010 36 Strongest Democratic Doubt Attacks: Trickle Down Economics

Very serious doubts Trickle Down Economics 71 69 70 69

(REPUBLICAN HOUSE CANDIDATE) believes in trickle- down economics and is increasing the deficit by 700 billion dollars with borrowed money from the Chinese in order to keep his pledge to cut taxes 31 30 for the richest two percent; five 29 28 billion dollars in breaks for Goldman Sachs and AIG and for companies exporting American jobs. That's wrong. The middle class is the heart of our Democrat (35%) Democrat with Dem Loyalist/ Voting Dem for economy. leaners (45%) Supporter (37%) Congress (43%) October 6, 2010October | Page 6, 2010 37 Strongest Democratic Doubt Attacks: Trade/Outsourcing

Very serious doubts Trade/Outsourcing 70 66 64 66

(REPUBLICAN HOUSE CANDIDATE) has pledged to pass as soon as possible free trade agreements with Colombia, Panama and South Korea as key to the official Republican 31 economic plan. This protects the 30 28 30 tax breaks for exporting American jobs, and that is not good news for Americans who believe American jobs are the key to the future. Democrat (35%) Democrat with Dem Loyalist/ Voting Dem for leaners (45%) Supporter (37%) Congress (43%) October 6, 2010October | Page 6, 2010 38

Republican framing – tested in poll

Page 38 | Greenberg Quinlan Rosner October 6, 2010October | Page 6, 2010 39 Republican messages

Now let me read you some statements that the Republican candidate might make this fall about the election. After I read each statement, please tell me whether each statement would make you MUCH MORE LIKELY to support the Democratic candidate this November, SOMEWHAT MORE LIKELY, JUST A LITTLE MORE LIKELY, NO MORE LIKELY, or LESS LIKELY to support the Republican candidate this November.

Much more likely Much more likely Health care Big government (DEMOCRATIC HOUSE President Obama and CANDIDATE) has backed Nancy (DEMOCRATIC HOUSE Pelosi's out-of-control spending CANDIDATE) promised lower ways. They've spent trillions on health care costs, but did not a failed economic recovery, deliver. Their plan will explode 49 47 resulting in government our deficit by one trillion dollars, takeovers of banks, car raise taxes when people are companies, and health care. struggling, and take away the Thousands of small businesses health care choices we should be 33 will face crippling tax hikes. I'll able to make. I will fight to repeal 29 work in Congress to return to and replace these policies with common sense policies like common sense solutions like decreasing costly government expanding health savings regulation, cutting taxes for small accounts and having the ability to businesses and the middle class, purchase health insurance Total more likely and provide incentives to Total more likely across state lines, which will encourage businesses to create lower costs for working families. jobs in America to get our economy going again. October 6, 2010October | Page 6, 2010 40

Summary of Republican attack messages on Democrats

Now let me read you some statements that the Republican candidate may make about the Democratic candidate. For each statement, please tell me whether this raises very serious doubts, serious doubts, minor doubts, or no real doubt in your own mind about the Democratic candidate.

Very serious doubts (HEALTH CARE) (DEMOCRATIC HOUSE CANDIDATE) and the Democratic Congress passed a health care law that will result in a government takeover of our health care system and hurt small 25 52 businesses with burdensome mandates,. Their plan will explode our deficit by one trillion dollars, raise taxes when people are struggling, and take away the health care choices we should be able to make.

(CHECK ON OBAMA) (DEMOCRATIC HOUSE CANDIDATE) will be a rubber stamp for President Obama's agenda of a failed stimulus, unnecessary bailouts, and a health care law that takes away our choices. These failed programs are exploding our deficit, haven't improved our economy and are 18 46 taking away our freedoms. We must end the Democrats' two-year experiment in expanding government. (PELOSI) (DEMOCRATIC HOUSE CANDIDATE) will be a rubber stamp for Nancy Pelosi in Washington, who passed a failed stimulus, unnecessary bailouts, and a health care law that takes away our choices. These failed programs are exploding our deficit, haven't improved our economy 21 45 and are taking away our freedoms. We must end the Democrats' two-year experiment in expanding government.

(SPENDING) (DEMOCRATIC HOUSE CANDIDATE) is addicted to spending our tax dollars and supports running up the deficit to record levels with failed economic policies. We can't continue to put 17 our government into more debt to countries like China. This Democratic spending spree will raise 45 taxes on working burden our small businesses.

0 20406080 October 6, 2010October | Page 6, 2010 41 Strongest Republican attack messages against Democrats

Very serious Very serious Health care doubts Pelosi doubts President Obama and (DEMOCRATIC HOUSE (DEMOCRATIC HOUSE CANDIDATE) promised lower CANDIDATE) will be a rubber health care costs, but did not 52 stamp for Nancy Pelosi in deliver. Their plan will explode Washington, who passed a failed our deficit by one trillion dollars, 45 stimulus, unnecessary bailouts, raise taxes when people are and a health care law that takes struggling, and take away the away our choices. These failed health care choices we should be programs are exploding our able to make. I will fight to repeal 25 deficit, haven't improved our and replace these policies with 21 economy and are taking away common sense solutions like our freedoms. We must end the expanding health savings Democrats' two-year experiment accounts and having the ability to Total serious in expanding government. purchase health insurance Total serious doubts across state lines, which will doubts lower costs for working families. October 6, 2010October | Page 6, 2010 42

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