Teneo Insights Webinar A weekly update from Teneo: Countdown to the U.S. Election (Part 1) A discussion between Orson Porter, Steve Clemons, Colm O’Comartun and Kevin Kajiwara. Thursday, August 6, 2020 © 2020 Teneo. All rights reserved. Kevin Kajiwara (KK): Good day, coronavirus reports, interviewing everyone. Welcome to today’s consequential elected officials, Teneo Insights Webinar. I’m Kevin leaders, and innovators, all very Kajiwara, Co-President of Teneo interesting. Previously, he was the Political Risk Advisory, calling Editor-at-Large of The Atlantic and in from New York City today. 88 Editor-in-Chief of Atlantic Live, the days from now, one of the most magazine’s event series. anticipated and frankly dreaded Steve Clemons elections in American history will Colm O’Comartun, he is a Founding Editor-at-Large, The Hill and former take place. Whether 88 nights Partner of the Washington DC- Editor-at-Large, The Atlantic [email protected] from now we’ll know the actual based issue advocacy, public outcome is a different question. But relations and public affairs firm, between now and then, Joe Biden 50 State, which is a long-time will name his vice-presidential strategic partner of Teneo’s. Colm candidate, we will have two highly was the Executive Director of the atypical and essentially virtual Democratic Governors Association, conventions where we’ll see and he was the Director of the the formal nominations of both Governor’s Office of Martin Biden and Donald Trump. There O’Malley of Maryland. And finally, Colm O’Comartun will be debates, maybe. A lot of my colleague Orson Porter, he’s a Co-Founder, 50 State and former campaigning up and down the Senior Managing Director at Teneo Executive Director of the Democratic Governors Association ticket. And frankly probably a who heads up our US Government [email protected] year’s worth of so-called October and Public Affairs business in our surprises between now and then. office in Washington, DC. Prior to And of course, all of this in the Teneo, Orson was the U.S. Director context of a still uncontrolled of Government and Public Affairs pandemic, unprecedented for Nike, and he served in the White unemployment, historic economic House as a Special Assistant to contraction, and the largest social President Bill Clinton. So please justice movement in American get involved in our conversation. history. Orson Porter Senior Managing Director If you have a question, you can [email protected] So today we’re initiating a submit it in writing at any time via series of calls between now and the moderator chat button at the November 3rd that are focusing top of your screen. So, let’s get on the election and today’s focus into it. Colm, I’d like to start with is to look through the prism of you, and maybe you could take the Democratic perspective. So, a few minutes here to lay out for joining me today for this important us, as you see it, the landscape discussion are three friends and going into this election. What’s in colleagues of ours. Steve Clemons play? What do we really need to Kevin Kajiwara is Editor-at-Large at The Hill, where keep our eyes on? And beyond the Co-President, Political Risk Advisory [email protected] among other things, he hosts their presidential election, maybe you Teneo 2 can go down ticket here, looking at Congress, it’s going to go in the presidential election, and on the the governorships and state legislatures as the economy, while the public doesn’t blame Trump for Democratic Party sees it right now. the economy, they blame him for not resolving the coronavirus, which in turn has led to a deeper and Colm O’Comartun (CO): Yeah, happy to. Good longer impact on the economy and polling shows morning and thanks. I think we’ll spend a little time that. Unfortunately, his weak economy has taken on the presidential, not because everybody obsesses away his rationale for why he wanted to run, and about the presidential, but because it’s affecting every it isn’t giving undecideds who don’t like his culture down ticket race as the Republican Party has become war, or his personality a reason to vote for him. And the party of Trump, that is affecting every other race now undecideds favor Biden by a wide majority, and in the country. Look, the landscape here, this is a independents favor Biden by 46 to 21. remarkable time. And the landscape is also a little bit unusual. But it’s within the context of the last six or On the right track, wrong direction, as we know, seven elections that have been change elections, and the polling has showed the country going in the the president unfortunately is no longer the change wrong direction for the last 30 years, but these are that people voted for in 2016. He is now the incumbent unprecedented numbers. 72% think the country’s and he owns a lot of the things that he complained on the wrong track and only 19% think it’s going in about that helped him get elected. He projected an the right direction. That’s normally a good indication America that was weak, an America that was in chaos, of deep trouble for the incumbent. The problem for an America that was at war with itself. And the images Trump, as we’ll talk about later, time is running out on our screens today show a continuation or actually a to change either the economy or his response to the proliferation of that image of America, and I think most coronavirus, and I think that time factor is the real Americans believe that he owns and contributed to a issue, and I’d love for people to come away today lot of that problem. understanding that the first votes are going to be cast in North Carolina in four weeks’ time. It’s very, very And the difference here this year is that it’s also not difficult to see Trump either persuading those that a choice between two candidates. It’s a referendum have left him or being able to persuade people that on his presidency, unlike 2016, and it looks like the he’s got a handle on the economy or the coronavirus president is struggling to understand that difference. in four weeks. If it were a choice between two candidates, two unpopular candidates, unlike the last election, Biden On the job approval, of course, nobody’s ever won actually doesn’t have the negatives that Hillary had. reelection with approval numbers like Trump, but And the main reason why Trump won last time was Trump has defied some of those kinds of rules. This that in a choice between two unpopular candidates, week, he’s got 54 disapprove of his job performance, independents and undecideds overwhelmingly 41 approve of this job performance. In these numbers, went with Trump, and now they’re overwhelmingly they mirror Bush and Carter who both lost their supportive of Joe Biden, which is, again, I think the reelection bid. The four presidents since 1980 who fundamental difference between 2016 and now. got reelected had strong approval numbers at the end of the second quarter into third quarter. And in the We normally look at the economy, right track, wrong polling, as we know, Biden’s horse race numbers have direction, job approval, for an indication about how been very consistently giving him a 5 to 10-point gap Teneo 3 lead over the president, and he’s in a much stronger college, and he lost by two million votes last time position than Hillary Clinton was at the same time. and still won the presidency. So all he needs is 270 He’s got a nine-point advantage with RealClearPolitics electoral college votes, which means that really, when and an eight-point advantage with FiveThirtyEight, and you take out the states that always vote consistently, these are margins much greater than Hillary’s 3.4% we’re really only left with six states that matter in lead with RealClear and 6% lead with FiveThirtyEight this election, and he thinks that he’s got eight million at the same time in 2016. voters there who didn’t vote for him in 2016, that he can turn out. Less educated white voters in Michigan, And actually, if we go by the Gold Standard polling, he Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Florida, Arizona, and Ohio. has double digit lead. Big trouble for Trump, there’s The problem is right now RealClearPolitics has Biden been a sharp decline in Republican satisfaction with winning half the states, and with 352 electoral college the way things are going in the country. They had been votes to his 186, and Fox polling has Biden leading in very solidly behind the president, and now they’re Michigan, Minnesota, Pennsylvania by double digits. starting to show some cracks and despondency from a 55% satisfaction in May to 19% satisfaction in June, It seems like an uphill challenge for Trump to pull back and his handling of the most important issue with with some of those numbers. His poor numbers overall his own voters, they disapprove of his handling of are putting in play states usually not in play, Texas, coronavirus 58 to 37. Big issue, time is slipping away. Georgia, Ohio. And that means that the Republican 40% of the ballots cast before election in 2016 and Party is spread thin as it tries to shore up its support 2018 were cast before election day.