Information on Politics and Society No. 11, January 2016 News, Reports and Analyses from the European Parliament Edited by Sabine Lösing, MEP Confrontation: Association Expansion Jürgen Wagner Jürgen Against Russia Against War Cold New the and the Policy, Neighbourhood EUrope‘s Sabine Lösing, MEP

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Expansion - Association - Confrontation: EUrope‘s Neighbourhood Policy, the Ukraine and the New Cold War Against Russia Cover Photo: Ukrainian army near . Source: Sasha Maksymenko/Flickr Editors of the brochure are Sabine Lösing, MEP and the Parliamentary Group GUE/NGL in the European Parliament. Editing by: Informationsstelle Militarisierung e.V., Hechinger Straße 203, 72072 Tübingen, www.imi-online.de English Translation: Agentur punkt.um, übersetzung, dolmetschen, organisation, Göttingen Publication date: February 2016 (Layout: Daniel Josten) Circulation: 400 Table of Contents

Foreword ...... 4

Introduction...... 5

1. The Ukraine and the Cold War 2.0 ...... 7 1.1 Hegemonic Policy and NATO Expansion...... 7 1.2 Russia‘s Roll-Back ...... 8 1.3 European Union vs. Eurasian Union...... 9 1.4 Ukraine: A Geopolitical Prize Piece...... 10 1.5 Geostrategy by Means of Association: Brussels or Moscow?...... 11

2. The Ukraine in the Sights of EUropean Ambitions and Strategies...... 14 2.1 EUrope as a World Power ...... 14 2.2 Imperial Greater EUrope and How To Secure It by Military Means...... 15 2.3 Expansion, Phase I: the EU‘s Eastern Enlargement...... 17 2.4 Expansion, Phase II: EUrope‘s Imperial Neighbourhood Policy...... 18 2.5 Neoliberal Association Agreement: The Ukraine as a Typical Example...... 19

3. The Ukraine as a Test Case for ‘s Emerging Ambitions...... 23 3.1 New Power – New Responsibility...... 23 3.2 Subversion and Regime Change „Made in Germany“...... 25 3.3 Tensions Within the Western Camp and German Interests...... 27

4. The Ukraine in a War on Multiple Fronts ...... 31 4.1 From Protest to Coup...... 31 4.2 Consensus on Western Integration – While Power Struggle Continues ...... 32 4.3 The Spiral of Escalation and the Role of External Great Powers...... 34 4.4 Replacement of Oligarchs, Exploitation and Repression...... 36 4.5 The Can of Worms Stays Open: Wear and Tear in the „Pro-Western“ Camp...... 37

5. Cold War: A Self-Fullfilling Prophecy?...... 41 5.1 The West to be Extended right up to Russia‘s Doorstep?...... 41 5.2 Playing with Fire – NATO Mobilisation and War Games...... 43 5.3 „A Hazardous Game in Full View of a Catastrophe“...... 44 5.4 Germany as a „Swing State“?...... 45 5.5 State Capitalism vs. Neoliberalism ...... 48 5.6 A Chinese-Russian Alliance?...... 51

6. Will the Ice Age become Permafrost? ...... 54

Is It All Russia‘s Fault?...... 10 Evil Model: The USA’s “Grand Area”...... 16 Gauckism – Nationalism – Global Power ...... 26 Russia as a Justification for Arms Build-Up ...... 27 Maidan: Controversy Over Fatal Shots...... 32 Ukraine: Fascist Revolution...... 33 EU Police Mission: „Disenchantment, Protest and Social Unrest“ ...... 35 MH-17: Zenith of Propaganda!...... 42 General Mobilisation: NATO Manoeuvres...... 45 Russia as a Justification for Arms Build-Up ...... 46

3 Foreword

Considering the level of hysteria in which seems that in the European Parliament in the relationship towards Russia is cur- particular, many of my colleagues are get- rently being discussed here in the „West“, ting all fidgety in their eagerness to start it is sometimes rather difficult to find the a new Cold War with Russia. But what is right balance. On the one hand it is indeed quite certainly the case is that there is a true that to seriously approve of Russian broad consensus about putting the blame politics without reservation is not possible. for the situation on Russia alone. Thus we This of course first of all refers to parts of read in a resolution motion adopted by the her domestic policies, but also with regard majority of EU parliamentarians in Janu- to foreign policy, Russia handles matters ary 2015: „The European Parliament […] along the lines of a kind of power politics strongly condemns Russia’s aggressive which, in case of the Western countries, and expansionist policy, which constitutes has always been severely criticised by the a threat to the unity and independence of peace movement, and rightly so. Though on Ukraine and poses a potential threat to the the other hand, I consider it to be appropri- EU itself, including the illegal annexation of ate and important not to forget about the and waging an undeclared hybrid principle of cause and effect. After all, it war against Ukraine, including informa- was the West and not Russia that by means tion war […]“ Not anywhere in the motion of its policy of NATO expansion refused can anything resembling self-criticism be to make use of the opportunity for endur- heard – not even the faintest whisper. ing rapprochement. Yet hardly anybody in Instead, and for quite some time now, these parts is prepared to acknowledge the especially in the media, we have been fact that the current crisis in the Ukraine experiencing a propaganda campaign which was preceded by quite some years of an is – literally – breathtaking. One of few active anti-Russian encirclement strategy, exceptions in this is the German Handelsb- and that this is really what prepared the latt, whose editor in chief Gabor Steingart stage for the most recent escalation. as one of very few voices in the mass media And by no means whatsoever is it sufficient, calls for moderation: „Moving NATO units either, to point our fingers at the „evil“ towards the Polish border and thinking United States alone. Certainly, Washington‘s about arming Ukraine is a continuation of share in activities leading to the deteriora- a lack of diplomacy by the military means. tion of relations with Russia is large. How- This policy of running your head against the ever, another factor seriously contributing wall – and doing so exactly where the wall towards this is the frenzied EU expansion is the thickest – just gives you a head ache policy and the connected association agree- and not much else. And this considering ment with the Ukraine, which to a great that the wall has a huge door in the relation- extent were pushed through by Germany. ship of Europe to Russia. And the key to this Further, the conflicts in the Ukraine must door is labeled ‘reconciliation of interests.’” be seen in a broader context of re-emerging As much as taking steps in such a direction blocs which are once more embarking on would be the right thing to do, this would a course of confrontation which is highly first require an honest, open debate about dangerous. If the West fails to modify its the genuine strategic and economic inter- claim to hegemony in these matters by be- ests behind the conflict and in the relations ginning to respect central Russian interests, with Russia – but such a thing is nowhere on there is indeed the threat of a renewed Cold the horizon. A slightly more positive impulse War. How dangerous the situation is can is the mood among the general population, be demonstrated by the petition „Wieder which, as a variety of opinion polls prove, Krieg in Europa? Nicht in unserem Namen!“ is definitely not at all prepared to back the („War In Europe Once More? Not In Our hard-liners in their policy towards Russia. Name!“) of 05 December, 2014, in which But especially because the propagandis- 60 (German) prominent figures formulated tic front established by politics and the a clear warning: „Nobody wants a war. media nevertheless allows for hardly any But North America, the European Union gaps to be seen in their version of reality, and Russia are inevitably drifting towards it is urgently necessary to breach it with one if they fail to finally put a stop to the a continuous flow of alternative informa- spiral of threats and counterthreats.“ tion. The present brochure is intended as Indeed, it is likely that hardly anyone really a modest contribution towards this end. wants a war, although when listening to the sabres rattling in certain influential hard-liners‘ scabbards, I am not so sure about that sometimes. Occasionally it

4 Introduction

In February, 2015, the British vice com- For years, the EU has also been pursuing mander of NATO for Europe, Adrian Brad- a policy of expansion which, especially by shaw, gave a worrying speech. In the course means of the so-called „European Neigh- of it, not only did he characterise Russia bourhood Policy (ENP)“, is aimed at creating as an „obvious and existential threat“, but a large imperial area as the power base for a also prognosticised a new „era of constant future „EUrope as a World Power“ and to se- competition with Russia“.1 And indeed, the cure that territory militarily. And at the core conflict in and about the Ukraine represents of this expansion strategy, we find the afore- the clearly most serious crisis in the rela- mentioned association agreements, the goal tions between the West and Russia since of which is a neoliberal restructuring of the the end of Eastern vs. Western bloc con- adjoining countries followed by their pe- frontation. Quite a number of observers are, ripheral incorporation into the „Greater EU rightly, concerned that the current conflicts Area“. An analysis of the EU-Ukraine agree- may well even act as a catalyst in generat- ment reveals this very clearly (Chapter 2). ing a new Cold War – with the central ques- tion here being why that is the case. And This EU expansion policy has been most although there are some differences in the substantially shaped and pushed ahead details, the answer coming from both sides by Germany, especially also including the of the Atlantic in this matter is nearly unani- conclusion of an association agreement EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs, mous: „Russia is to blame for everything!“. with the Ukraine. Such a policy, practi- Federica Mogherini and Ukrainian President, cally applied already for years, has now Petro Poroschenko. (Source: European No doubt, Russia has indeed taken the recently also become an integral element Union) gloves off in the struggle for the Ukraine to of an openly conducted debate which at assert her interests. However, the Western its core has the demand that Germany side is studiously overlooking (or rather: should abandon its – purported – „culture concealing) its own responsibility for the of restraint“ in favour of a world power current situation. Yet one of the major policy backed by military strength. At the causes for the conflict lies in the supremacy basis of this debate lies the project „Neue strategy drawn up by the US immediately Macht – Neue Verantwortung“ („New Power after the Cold War, since then aiming at – New Responsibility“) assembling over 50 maintaining Western dominance (under members of the German established circles US leadership) by any and all means. From of foreign and security politics, whose then on, consequently, derived from that central theses were subsequently included strategy among others, NATO policy was in the speech delivered by German federal oriented towards purposely weakening president Joachim Gauck during the Russia by attempting to integrate as many Security Conference in early 2014. What countries of the former Eastern Bloc as is quite openly claimed in this context with possible into the Western sphere of influ- regard to Southern and Eastern Europe is ence. The fact that in case of the Ukraine, to establish the EU as the sole regulating the conflicts which have become increas- and peacekeeping power there, and the ingly severe over a number of years have country considered the first major milestone escalated in a particularly drastic manner, of implementation of what is now known as is not least due to the country‘s geopoliti- the „Gauck Doctrine“ is the Ukraine. And cal significance. In terms of geopolitical indeed, besides the USA, it was Germany strategy, the West considers the Ukraine a that swiftly turned out to be the most impor- key country, and to control it would mean to tant Western actor in the Ukraine crisis seriously weaken Russia. Accordingly, the – both in preparing the coup and in the signing of an association agreement with subsequent „crisis management“. Although, the European Union, originally scheduled even if a large part of German and US inter- for November 2013, would have factually ests coincide, when looking closely, there sealed the Ukraine‘s entry into the West- are quite a few differences to be found. ern bloc. And exactly for that very reason, This can be seen in the, partly strenuous, former Ukrainian president Viktor Yanuko- tensions which keep appearing within the vych‘s decision not to sign that document Western camp, mostly with regard to two ensured that he made powerful enemies not aspects: “Who will manage to establish their only in Washington, but in Brussels as well, potentate as the ruler in Kiev?” and “How far and especially also in Berlin (Chapter 1). should one climb up the escalation ladder in the relations to Russia?” (Chapter 3) But not only NATO strategy, but also the interest policy of the European Union2 is In the Ukraine, the protests which had been relevantly responsible for the current crisis. supported massively by the West were

5 followed by an illegal coup under the threat Before such a background, the current of violence during which Yanukovych, who ice age is increasingly likely to become had come to power in free elections, was permanent. Thus, military expert Thomas literally chased out of the country. Although Wiegold described his primary impressions a large number of radical right-wingers were of the 2015 Munich Security Conference part of the quickly formed „transitional as follows: „My very subjective perception government“, it was immediately acknowl- (which is obviously by no means mine alone) edged by the West. Individual political after three days of Security Conference: actors doggedly struggling for influence the confrontation West versus East (or vice in this can be clearly identified as being versa) is not only back again, it will not backed by Germany (Klitschko) or the US disappear any time soon, either. And the (Yatsenyuk). But even though they are in differences of opinion occurring between conflict among one another, all these actors the USA and part of her European allies, for support the radical pro-Western course example concerning arms supplies to the embarked upon immediately after they had Ukraine, are a quarrel about the right way – seized power. Soon after, an escalation set but not a fundamental division of the West. in, leading to severe military clashes with Instead, the rift between Europe and the separatist powers in the eastern Ukraine USA on one side and Russia on the other and the incorporation of Crimea by Rus- is deepening continuously.“4 To close this sia, an illegal act under international law. rift again, the West would have to abandon Also, although elimination of the oligarchs‘ its claim for dominance; it would have to influence had initially been one of the acknowledge that it is at fault to a relevant central goals of the Maidan protests, as a degree, or even mainly, for the escalation; result, oligarch rule was even strengthened, and it would finally need to seriously show and additionally, upon demands from the its preparedness to grant Russia a say International Monetary Fund (IMF), rigorous in major security matters. (Chapter 6). austerity measures were imposed on the country which severely affect especially the If instead, the current course is pursued poorest levels of the population. Further, further, it is highly likely that the conflict the country is now threatened by military will continue with increasing severity. That conflicts among the factions in the „vic- such a development should really not be torious“ government camp. This includes in anybody‘s interest and all efforts should both conflicts between individual oligarchs be made to defuse this extremely explosive and between those in power in Kiev and situation is evident already in the mere radical right-wing groups (Chapter 4). fact that in early 2015, the „Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists“ moved its notori- 1. Russian expansionism may pose The already seriously difficult situation of ous „Doomsday Clock“, which shows how existential threat, says Nato general, the Ukraine is additionaly made even more close the world is to a nuclear war, ahead The Guardian, 20 Feb, 2015. complicated by the international framework to three minutes to twelve. In the scientists‘ 2. Of course one cannot really speak of conditions. These include the demands, analysis, only once before, in 1953, was interests of “the” European Union – partly made quite openly and publically, to the world closer to such an apocalypse.5 especially not with regard to foreign make use of the Ukraine crisis to trigger a and security policy, where the large change of power in Russia itself. Further, national states are the ones who to there is the downright mobilisation of NATO a great extent define the agenda on forces which greatly increases the prob- their own. The use of “the” European ability of severe conflicts. Even direct armed Union in the following should thus be encounters are once again considered pos- understood along these lines. On this sible – with unpredictable consequences. matter, cf. Lösing, Sabine/Wagner, Jürgen: Although in this, Germany3 is pursuing a Oligopolisierung des Rüstungssektors?, slightly more moderate course than the US, in: Z - No. 94, June, 2013, pp. 89-101. which has led to arguments with the latter 3. Although, without doubt, other EU on several occasions, Germany neverthe- countries, especially France and less to a great extent supports the generally Poland, also play an important part in anti-Russian thrust of current policies, partly the Ukraine crisis, a detailed analysis even in the front line. Thus, no disruption in of these countries’ policies would go trans-Atlantic relations is to be expected. beyond the scope of this paper. On the contrary: the signs are increas- 4. Wiegold, Thomas: Ukraine in München: ing that a situation is developing further Es gilt die gefühlte Temperatur, where a Western neo-liberal bloc stands in Augengeradeaus, 08 Feb, 2015. confrontation with a state-capitalist (East- 5. Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists: ern) bloc in growing hostility (Chapter 5). Doomsday Clock: Timeline.

6 1. The Ukraine and the Cold War 2.0

The result was the „Defence Planning Guid- ance“ (also known as the „No-Rivals Plan“), a challenge claiming that it is possible to permanently consolidate US hegemony in the world and an instruction manual for how this can be brought about: „Our first objective is to prevent the re-emergence of a new rival, either on the territory of the former Soviet Union or elsewhere, that poses a threat on the order of that posed formerly by the Soviet Union. This is a dominant consideration underlying the new regional defense strategy and requires that we endeavor to prevent any hostile power from dominating a region whose resources would, under consolidated control, be sufficient to generate global power. [...] we must account sufficiently for the interests of the advanced industrial nations to discourage them from challeng- At the 2002 NATO Summit in Prague, the second eastern enlargement was decided. ing our leadership or seeking to overturn (Source: NATO) the established political and economic order. We must maintain the mechanism for To Russia, the factual situation is obvious: in warnings of a confrontation between the deterring potential competitors from even the early 1990s, the unmistakable confirma- blocs – which possibly never ended but is aspiring to a larger regional or global role.“8 tion was given that in exchange for NATO more openly apparent again – and of a New membership of the reunited Germany, there Cold War (Chapter 1.3). That these conflicts Subsequently, Cheney fully supported the would be no expansion of the alliance‘s escalated particularly drastically around the theses of Wolfowitz and consorts, and territory towards the East. This promise has Ukraine crisis is definitely not accidental, rebuffed a considerably more moderate been broken flagrantly by NATO‘s decidedly as the country is seen as a choice object in alternative draft by Colin Powell, at the anti-Russian expansion policy. On the West- geopolitical terms in the struggle between time Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff. ern side, this point of view is rejected just Russia and the West (Chapter 1.4). And it is Since then hardly any doubt has been raised as obviously, and Russia is given the blame also logical in a certain way that the dispute that the core theories of the No-Rivals Plan for the deterioration of relations. One symp- became virulent when the association dominated US policy from then on.9 Ac- tom of this was the concluding declaration agreement between the European Union cordingly, among other policy elements, the at the NATO summit in Wales in September and the Ukraine was rejected: after all, the target of purposely encircling and weak- 2014, during which a factual mobilisation signing of this document would mean that ening Russia was derived from it, as the of the alliance against Moscow was decided the country would be factually incorpo- private information service „Strategic Fore- upon. The reason given for that decision rated into the Western sphere of influence cast“ (Stratfor), considered to have excel- was that Moscow had rudely slapped aside and its membership in the Russian-led lent contacts to the CIA, stated quite plainly: the West‘s hand extended in friendship and „Eurasian Economic Union“ would become „After the fall of the Soviet Union, the West now had to bear the consequences: „For impossible permanently (Chapter 1.5). began a geopolitical offensive in Russia‘s more than two decades, NATO has strived near abroad, and met with some success.“10 to build a partnership with Russia […] Russia 1.1 Hegemonic Policy and has breached its commitments, as well as NATO Expansion The tool chosen to implement this geopo- violated international law, thus breaking litical offensive was NATO, though for this the trust at the core of our cooperation.“6 Immediately after what seemed to be the to work, it was inevitable to violate the end of the Cold War, intense contemplations promise given to Soviet General Secretary However, a closer look at Western policy to- were undertaken in the US about how to Mikhail Gorbachev at the time – in return wards Russia makes it clear that Moscow‘s react to the new situation. Before this back- for the factual discontinuation of the Cold point of view is indeed comprehensible. ground, the US defence secretary at the War – not to expand the alliance‘s territory Thereby, the unique opportunity to end the time, Dick Cheney, commissioned a paper towards the East. As this is one of the major confrontational relationship was carelessly elaborating a future global strategy for the points of criticism on Russia‘s part, the cast to the winds (Chapter 1.1). In turn, Rus- US. Under supervision from his undersec- course of events in those days is the subject sia – with considerable delay – was induced retary of state for defence, Paul Wolfowitz, of intense arguments again nowadays.11 to adopt an increasingly hostile stance the document was actually written by Lewis In this, the attempt is made in some parts towards the West and to adapt its policies Libby and Zalmay Khalilzad, all of them to sweep this violation of trust aside with accordingly (Chapter 1.2). As a result, the personages who were to play leading parts all sorts of nit-picking argumentation. Yet mutual relations have been deteriorating fur- in the future, especially in the subse- the basis here is the following conversa- ther and further for quite some years now, quent George W. Bush administration.7 tion, which can hardly be misinterpreted: so that nowadays we once again hear clear „When on 08 February, 1990, US Foreign

7 Secretary James Baker was attempting to concessions to be valid and considers past, and the Russian leaders have opted to win General Secretary the subsequent reality of NATO‘s policy take the gloves off in the power game.“20 Mikhail Gorbachev‘s approval for a reunited to be a violation of the agreement made Germany to remain a member of NATO, at the time. Thus he expressed in 2014: 1.2 Russia‘s Roll-Back Baker assured him that there ‚will be no „The decision for the US and its allies to expansion of current NATO jurisdiction expand Nato into the east was decisively While was forced fairly soon towards the East‘. Gorbachev followed up made in 1993. I called this a big mistake to bury any hopes – which had initially on this: ‚Any extension of the NATO zone is from the very beginning. It was definitely indeed existed – of entering into a relation- unacceptable.‘ Baker‘s answer: ‚I agree.‘“12 a violation of the spirit of the statements ship of cooperation with Washington21, he and assurances made to us in 1990.“17 continued for another while to attempt to Baker later argued that his sentences were offer the EU, and especially Germany, a merely referring to the territory of what Indeed, the idea to expand NATO towards close alliance which was supposed to be was then still the GDR [“East Germany“], the former Eastern Bloc was already directed more or less openly against the and were thus not meant to mean a general introduced to the debate in 1993 by Volker US.22 Though at the latest with EU support abandonment of any NATO expansion.13 This Rühe, the German minister of defence at for the „coloured revolutions“ starting in is not exactly credible, though, as on 2 Feb- the time. One year later, the programme 2003, that option was no longer avail- ruary, 1990, Hans-Dietrich Genscher, Ger- „Partnership for Peace“ was initiated, able either – from then on, the EU coun- man foreign minister at the time, together with the intention of providing especially tries were also seen as opponents and a with James Baker had addressed the press ex-Warsaw Pact countries with ways of ap- counter-offensive was launched: „Towards and described the result of their consulta- proach to the Western alliance. Thereupon, the Ukraine and Georgia, but also Moldova, tion as follows: „We were in agreement that in 1997, Poland, Hungary and the Czech Moscow increasingly instrumentalises its there is no intention to expand the NATO Rpublic were formally invited to join NATO, economic power to exert political pressure defence territory towards the East. By the and their membership became official on and to counteract undesirable internal politi- way, this does not only apply regarding the 12 March, 1999. At about the same time, cal developments in those countries – but GDR […], but this applies in a fully general NATO began its offensive war against especially in order to prevent any further respect.“14 Further, a note on file which was Yugoslavia – a drastic violation of interna- spreading of the ‚coloured revolutions‘. The kept classified for a long time reveals that tional law, as the war took place without any EU is no longer perceived exclusively as a this was also exactly the statement com- mandate from the UN Security Council and partner, but as the most important competi- municated to the Soviet side in talks later in thus evading the Russian right of veto. The tor for influence in the post-Soviet region.“23 February 1990: „according to this, Genscher pace did not slacken afterwards, either: in said in a conversation with Soviet foreign November, 2002, the decision was made, That things had in fact changed in Moscow minister Shevardnadze that the (West) Ger- and implemented two years later, to have many only became clearly aware of with man federal government ‚was aware that a further seven countries join the alliance, Vladimir Putin‘s appearance at the Munich membership in NATO of a united Germany including Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania, i.e. Security Conference in early 2007. Though gives rise to complicated questions‘. He is former member states of the Soviet Union. his criticism expressed on that occasion quoted to have said that for [the West Ger- This happened even though Moscow had was primarily directed at the US, he also man government] the matter was definite: always called this the „red line“ which must addressed their allies: „Unilateral, frequently NATO would not expand towards the East.“15 under no circumstances be crossed.18 illegitimate actions have not resolved any problem. Moreover, they have generated However, in further negotiations, the matter Additionally, for a long time and with great new human tragedies and new centres of was not addressed again, and there actually concern, Moscow has been observing NA- tension. Judge for yourselves: the num- seems to have been no subsequent formal TO‘s plans for a missile defence shield, con- ber of wars as well as local and regional concession not to expand the alliance‘s sidering them – not without reason – to be conflicts has not diminished. […] Today we territory. Due to this fact, on the part of a targeted attempt at undermining Russia‘s observe an almost uncontained, excessive the West, the argumentation is now that second-strike potential.19 Then, from 2003, use of force in international matters – of the statements made in February 1990 the so-called „coloured revolutions“ started, military force – of force which is plunging have become irrelevant: „According to the replacing pro-Russian rulers with pro-West- the world into an abyss of one conflict after sources, though, during that decisive phase ern ones in Russia‘s immediate neighbour- the other.“ Further, Putin asserted that the in the negotiations, the non-expansion of hood. These included in particular the coups monopoly on the use of force on a global NATO towards the East is never mentioned. – partly with massive Western support – in scale lies in the hands of the UN alone, If Gorbachev had really relied on the Febru- Georgia (2003), the Ukraine (2004) and and severely criticised attempts by the ary talks on this matter, he would have Kyrgyzstan (2005). All in all, these individual Western powers to seize it for themselves: had to mention it once again at the time. measures amounted to a critical mass which „The use of force can only be considered He failed to do so. In July, 1990, he agreed resulted in the initiation of a fundamental legitimate if the decision is taken on the to full membership of a united Germany course change in Russia in order to react basis and within the framework of the in NATO.“16 Doubtlessly, Gorbachev‘s with power-political steps to an expan- UN. And the United Nations Organisation omission can be called geopolitical stu- sionistic NATO policy perceived as hostile: should neither be substituted by NATO, pidity of the first order, and one can only „The great change in 2005 is that in that nor by the European Union.“24 Such harsh speculate about the reasons for it. Though year, Russian foreign policy shifted from a words had not been expected: „For sev- there are statements of Gorbachev‘s which position of weakness to one of strength. […] eral seconds, the International Security prove that he apparently expected those Post-Soviet interference is a matter of the Conference sat in silence, shocked. This

8 was a new tone, a reminder of a past many Though this is by no means a point of view Should a country consider itself affected, believed to be irreversibly over: the most held exclusively in Republican circles. it can initiate a vaguely formulated consul- powerful man in Russia in full armour“, the Also Anne-Marie Slaughter, for instance, tation process – a procedure with a very „Deutsche Presseagentur“ commented.25 who functioned as Director of the State obvious goal: „This lack of clarity appears Department‘s Policy Planning Office for to have been chosen quite consciously. For The quarrels came to a head for the first the Obama administration for some years, without greater precision, the principle of time in the summer of 2008, when Rus- took the same line: „The predominance of ‚indivisible security‘ would ultimately grant sia reacted to the Georgian offensive war liberal democracies is necessary to prevent Russia an indirect right of veto against against South Ossetia with a tough military a return to great power security competi- nearly every NATO decision – from expan- counterstrike. This way, Russia unmistakea- tion between the United States and our sion into the East via deployment of US or bly signalled its preparedness to put an end, allies, on the one side, and an autocracy NATO troops in other countries to military if necessary by force, to continued Western or a combination of autocracies, on the operations in the Euro-Atlantic region.“33 attempts at gaining any further ground. „For other – the sort of competition that led the first time since the end of the (old) Cold to two World Wars and one Cold War.“29 What transpired quickly, however, was that War, Russia thus put a check on a Western the NATO countries have no intention to attempt at expansion by military means – And also on the other side of the Atlantic, grant Russia any genuine right to a say in this fact alone demonstrates the scope of numerous notable representatives of the European security matters.34 In return, Mos- recent events in the Caucasus. At the same political establishment have meanwhile cow speeded up the formation of a counter- time the entry into Georgia is a clear signal adopted this position.30 In 2009, Nikolaus bloc, with Vladimir Putin announcing in July, to the West that in future, Russia will once Busse, Brussels correspondent of the 2009 that Russia, Byelarus and Kazakhstan again be a force to be reckoned with in „Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung“ comment- were about to create a customs union. In the power game. An analysis by Strategic ed accordingly: „In an increasing number 2010, a standardisation of customs tariffs Forecast, a think tank also known as the of fields, we will experience passionate com- followed, and in 2012, border controls ‚Shadow CIA‘ states: ‚With its operation petition from and tough conflicts of interest between the three countries were aban- in South Ossetia, Russia has proven three with the aspiring great powers. This requires doned and an integrated economic area was things. 1. Its army can carry out successful the determined global presence of the established, guaranteeing a free exchange operations, which foreign observers were West, and that means not only the USA. [...] of goods, services, capital and workforce doubtful about. 2. The Russians are capable Though they will be less and less capable of among the member countries.35 Further, of a victory against the forces trained by US bearing these burdens alone. [...] In a world in September, 2013, Armenia announced military instructors. 3. Russia has proven of harsh geopolitical rivalry, Europe will not that it would not sign the readily formulated that the US and NATO are not in a situa- survive as a large peace movement, but association agreement with the EU but join tion which would enable them to carry out must find its own sophisticated diplomacy the customs union instead. Then on 29 May, a military intervention in this conflict.‘“26 and confident presence. This problem 2014, Kazakhstan, Russia and Byelarus cannot be solved by creating new posts signed an agreement by which from 01 Jan- 1.3 European Union vs. Eurasian Union and structures in Brussels, but instead, uary, 2015, the customs union was renamed the élites in the large member countries the „Eurasian Economic Union“ – with Arme- The reactions in the West to the Georgian need to find the willpower to jointly ad- nia and Kyrgyzstan joining shortly thereafter, war were extremely harsh, and accordingly, dress tough matters of power politics.“31 and with Tadjikistan, Uzbekistan and Mon- already then voices could be heard speaking golia named as further potential candidates. of a „New Cold War“ looming between the To be able to present solutions for the crisis West and Russia.27 Even if this prognosis which had culminated in 2008, while simul- Even if the Eurasian Economic Union‘s misses the core point of the conflict (see taneously getting prepared for any possible „firepower“ is in some parts considered to Chapter 5.5), it became „popular“ especially further escalation, in the following period be rather low in the West, e.g. in an analysis in its slightly altered version, embedded Russia moved ahead in a two-pronged by the most important EU think tank36, the in a larger context, that a bloc confronta- approach. As an option for cooperative Russian endeavours to counteract Western tion between „democracies“ (USA and EU) de-escalation, the Russian president at the expansionist policy were quite obviously ob- and „autocracies“ (China and Russia) was time, Dimitriy Medvedev, announced in served with great suspicion. With increasing developing which the West would have to June, 2008 that he was seeking to cre- frequency – and quite clearly already well arm against. In the US, it was especially ate a „Euro-Atlantic Security Agreement“. before the situation in the Ukraine escalated influential politologist Robert Kagan, chief But although first content elements were – they were seen more or less openly in the advisor of Republican presidential candi- leaked shortly afterwards, the draft treaty context of an impending new confronta- dates John McCain and Mitt Romney, who was published in detail only at the end of tion between blocs. Thus, a 2012 paper by expressed thoughts along those lines in his November, 2009.32 The intended contract- the group of experts in charge of „Östliche 2008 book „The Return of History and the ing parties were to be all countries „from Partnerschaft“ („Eastern Partnership“) of End of Dreams“: „The old rivalry between Vancouver to Vladivostok“ (i.e. including the the „Deutsche Gesellschaft für Auswär- liberalism and autocracy is flaring up once USA and Canada) as well as the respec- tige Politik“ („German Council on Foreign more, and the great powers of the world tive international structures (NATO, OSCE, Relations“), including former German state are taking position according to their form CIS…). The core of the treaty is „indivisible secretary for defence Friedbert Pflüger and of government. [...] History has returned, security“, meaning that no contracting party former USA coordinator of the German gov- and the democracies must join up in shap- may undertake any actions which have a ernment Karsten D. Voigt, reads: „The dis- ing it – or others will do it for them.“28 negative effect on any other‘s security. course on foreign policy in Germany avoids

9 Is It All Russia‘s Fault? of the private information service Strate- gic Forecast, emphasizes: „If Russia loses The widely accepted view that Rus- Belarus or Ukraine, it loses its strategic sia is to blame for the escalation in the depth, which accounts for much of its ability Ukraine and in the relations with the West to defend the Russian heartland.“39 Yet the is contested by, among others, John J. country‘s significance derives from much Mearsheimer, one of the most prominent deeper levels: „Ukraine is the cornerstone US politologists: „According to the prevail- to Russia‘s defense and survival as any ing wisdom in the West, the Ukraine crisis sort of power. The former Soviet state can be blamed almost entirely on Russian hosts the largest Russian community in aggression. […] But this account is wrong: the world outside of Russia, and is tightly the United States and its European allies integrated into Russia‘s industrial and share most of the responsibility for the cri- agricultural heartland. Ukraine is the transit sis. The taproot of the trouble is NATO en- point for 80 percent of the natural gas largement, the central element of a larger shipped from Russia to Europe and is the strategy to move Ukraine out of Russia‘s connection point for most infrastructure orbit and integrate it into the West. At the — whether pipeline, road, power or rail — same time, the EU‘s expansion eastward running between Russia and the West.“40 and the West‘s backing of the pro-democ- racy movement in Ukraine – beginning John Mearsheimer. (Source: CC BY-SA 3.0 It is thus no surprise that Moscow was also with the Orange Revolution in 2004 – were via Wikimedia Commons) apparently striving to firmly integrate that critical elements, too. Since the mid- of Ukraine‘s democratically elected and country into its sphere of influence. In any 1990s, Russian leaders have adamantly pro-Russian president – which he rightly case, such an intention was expressed in opposed NATO enlargement and in recent labelled a ‚coup‘ – was the final straw.“ a semi-official government paper of 2013, years, they have made it clear that they (Mearsheimer, John J.: Why the Ukraine which according to some reports was co- would not stand by while their strategically Crisis Is the West‘s Fault. The Liberal authored by Putin‘s close advisor Sergey important neighbour turned into a Western Delusions That Provoked Putin, Foreign Glazyev: „According to the document, the bastion. For Putin, the illegal overthrow Affairs, September/October 2014, p. 1) objective is to get the Ukraine into the fold of the Russian customs union by the time of the 2015 elections. For this purpose, addressing geostrategic contemplations. 1.4 Ukraine: A Geopolitical Prize Piece European influence in Ukrainian media is Though the realities should be acknowl- to be ‚neutralised‘ by supporting Russia- edged: when Russia speaks of stability, they Among the various „non-aligned“ countries friendly opinion-makers. Further, Western- think in terms of power ratios and spheres situated between the European Union and oriented oligarchs are to be ‚sanctioned‘. of influence there. It is just as legitimate Russia, the Ukraine, due to its large popula- Additionally, after the Ukraine elections, the to look at the [German respectively EU] tion and abundant resources, but also pro-European public servants – especially Eastern Partnership under geostrategic especially due to its geographical location, in the foreign and defence ministries – are considerations. With such a concept, the represents a kind of prize piece in geopoliti- to be ‚discredited‘ and ousted from their European Union aims at disseminating its cal terms. From a Western point of view, the offices. For these are, the paper quotes, ‚de political, legal and economic ‚playbook‘ country‘s significance has been described, facto agents of Euro-Atlantic influence‘.“41 and thus at tying in the region step by step. for example, by Zbigniew Brzezinski, prob- In this, by means of cooperation offers, ably the principal US geopolitician, already Considering such a background, it should the EU attempts to prevent the Eastern in 1997: „Ukraine, a new and important not astonish anyone that the struggle for partners from adopting any other models of space on the Eurasian chessboard, is a the Ukraine did not begin only just recently. integration contrary to European interests geopolitical pivot because its very exist- This became abundantly clear during the so- due to their economic predicaments.“37 ence as an independent country helps to called „Orange Revolution“ in 2004. At the transform Russia. Without Ukraine, Russia time, after controversial elections, Viktor Ya- In view of these developments, one does not ceases to be a Eurasian empire. […] As the nukovych was declared the winner, yet after necessarily need to be in agreement with EU and NATO expand, Ukraine will eventu- large-scale protests – massively supported every Russian assessment of the situation, ally be in the position to choose whether by the West – Yanukovych was forced to let alone with the gloves-off manner in which it wishes to be part of either organization. agree to another round of polls, from which Moscow is operating in the Ukraine. Though […] Although that will take time, it is not too Viktor Yushchenko, a pro-Western candi- that the perception that the West made use early for the West—while further enhancing date, emerged as the victor. According to a of Russian weakness to aggressively expand its economic and security ties with Kiev—to report by Strategic Forecast, the events of its sphere of influence at Moscow‘s expense begin pointing to the decade 2005-2015 that period caused veritable shock waves is certainly not at all far-fetched should as a reasonable time frame for the initia- in Moscow. This led to the fundamental have become sufficiently clear from NATO‘s tion of Ukraine‘s progressive inclusion…“38 course change described above which from expansionistic policy as described above then on characterised the relationship (also see the box „Is It All Russia‘s Fault?“). To Russia, the Ukraine is indeed of im- towards the West and specifically Russian mense importance, for reasons of military policy regarding the Ukraine: „The Orange strategy alone, as George Friedman, head Revolution in Ukraine proved a breaking

10 point in U.S.-Russian relations, however. At that point, Moscow recognized that the United States was seeking to cripple Russia permanently. After Ukraine turned orange, Russia began to organize a response.“42

Immediately upon assuming office, Yush- chenko indefatigably kept voicing his inter- est in NATO membership for the Ukraine, which the alliance offered as a prospect for some time, but later withdrew its offer. Further, he announced his intention to not extend the agreement on deployment of the Russian Black Sea Fleet in Crimea beyond its expiry date in 2017 – occasion- ally he even threatened to terminate it prematurely. The resulting drastic dete- rioration of Russian-Ukrainian relations culminated in the so-called gas wars of 2006 and 2009. Outwardly, these conflicts were about outstanding Ukrainian pay- ments for Russian energy supplies. In fact, though, Moscow‘s intention was to take over the Ukrainian pipeline network, thus Head of the EU Commission at the time, José Manuel Barroso, President of the EU Council, reinforcing its influence on the Ukraine.43 Herman van Rompuy, and Ukrainian President, , during the signing of the association agreement between the EU and the Ukraine as well as Moldova and Georgia. Russian gas cut-offs led to a drastic energy (Source: European External Service) shortage in the Ukraine (also in some EU countries) and are likely to have been in- is no question of Ukraine joining NATO“.47 to force a decision on the Ukraine to go tended as a means of weakening Yushchen- Even further: in June, 2010, the Ukrain- in the direction of one bloc or the other ko. In any case, any assessment of the pro- ian parliament even passed a law whose – yet that was exactly what the European Western president‘s term of office can be author was Yanukovych himself, factually Union did with its association agreement. nothing but disillusioning: „After five years stipulating the country‘s non-alignment of ‘Orange’ rule, the majority of the people and thus prohibiting accession to NATO.48 1.5 Geostrategy by Means of are worse off, while the oligarchic clans Association: Brussels or Moscow? and politicians continue to go about their However there are no indicators that at business with the same level of corruption any time, Yanukovych seriously considered As described, the desire to integrate the and criminality as before.“44 In view of this, membership in Russia‘s customs union, ei- Ukraine into their own respective sphere it is not surprising that in the presidential ther. Fact is that among the population there of influence was one of the top items on elections of January, 2010, Yushchenko was was no clear majority for such a move, nor the political agendas of both the West and punished, receiving a mere 5.45% of votes. for any further orientation towards the West. Russia. This is exactly why the „Association In the subsequent second ballot one month Opinion polls of 2013 confirm this: „Ukrain- Agreement between the European Union later, came out on top in ian sociologists point out that the country‘s and its Member States, of the one part, a process that happened under international population has in fact not yet made a choice and Ukraine, of the other part“50 is of such observation and was confirmed to have between the EU and Russia. According to immense geopolitical significance. Imme- taken place freely and fairly.45 That to some a study by the International Institute of diately after the „Orange Revolution“, work degree this already was a West vs. Russia Sociology in Kiev, 39.8 percent of Ukrain- on it began when the European Commis- contest is illustrated by a Spiegel Online ians approve of joining the Customs Union, sion mandated first studies focussing on headline of the time: „Presidential Elections while 36 percent would welcome integra- the possible effects of such an agreement. in the Ukraine. The Winner is Moscow.“46 tion into the EU. 22 percent did not provide Official negotiations started in 2007, with a definite answer. In contrast, a survey by talks continuing even after fairly pro- Undeniably, the Ukrainian position changed the Rating Group found that 41 percent Russian Yanukovych had come to power fundamentally almost immediately after- of Ukrainians are for closer ties to the EU in Kiev. Then, by March 2012, a document wards. In exchange for price cuts on Russian and 38 percent for the Customs Union.“49 had been prepared which was ready for energy supplies, Yanukovych extended the signing, with a principal part of about 180 lease agreement for the important Russian It is a fact that on the eve of the escala- pages and a further approximately 2,000 Black Sea Fleet base at Sevastopol from tion, the country was deeply divided, with pages of appendices and protocols.51 2017 to 2042 (factually to 2047). Concern- a rather more pro-Russian and a rather ing possible membership in the Western more pro-Western part pitted against each Apart from passages which are problematic military alliance, already in February, other. In such a situation, it would have in terms of economic policy (referred to 2010, Yanukovych confirmed that „there been a ludicrous undertaking to attempt in greater detail in the next chapter), the

11 document is highly explosive as a geopoliti- ment, in particular with a view to increas- we see is that this is about visas, trade cal instrument. The reason for this is that ing the participation of Ukraine in EU-led and subsidies from Brussels, what we the signing of an EU association agreement civilian and military crisis management don‘t see is that it‘s about geopolitics. [In is equivalent to joining the Western bloc, operations as well as relevant exercises the matter of the] EU-Ukraine association as it makes membership in the Russian- and training activities, including those car- agreement, [there is] more at stake […] than controlled Customs Union or the Eurasian ried out in the framework of the Common trade and change. It is about the Ukraine‘s Economic Union impossible (and vice Security and Defence Policy (CSDP).“57 soul and Europe‘s power geometrics.“60 versa). For instance, Stefan Füle, who as EU Commissioner for Enlargement at the time In consideration of all these „advantages“, of the negotiations about the Agreement the EU was extremely eager to get the played a major part in the matter, left no job completely done as quickly as pos- doubt in this: „It is true that the Customs sible, as an article published in 2012 Union membership is not compatible with reveals: „Despite all apparent differences the DCFTAs [Deep and Comprehensive Free and harsh rhetorics in the direction of Trade Areas] which we have negotiated with Kiev, the European Union is aware of the Ukraine, the Republic of Moldova, Geor- Ukraine‘s important role, not only for the 6. Wales Summit Declaration. Issued by gia, and Armenia. […] This is due to legal Eastern Partnership, but in the geostrategic the Heads of State and Government impossibilities: for instance, you cannot at relations between the EU and Russia. If participating in the meeting of the the same time lower your customs tariffs the EU fails to create closer ties with the North Atlantic Council in Wales, as per the DCFTA and increase them as a Ukraine politically and economically, the Press Release (2014) 120, Issued result of the Customs Union membership.“52 latter will inevitably drift further towards on 05 Sep. 2014, Section 21. Just as clearly it was expressed by Manuel Moscow, thus goes one of the most seri- 7. Lemann, Nicholas: The Next World Order: Barroso, President of the EU Commission ous arguments for swift association.“58 The Bush Administration may have a at the time: „One country cannot at the brand-new doctrine of power, in: The same time be a member of a customs union The explosive nature in geopolitical terms New Yorker, April 1, 2002; Richard Perle, and be in a deep common free-trade area of the association agreement, and thus Andrew Marshall und Albert Wohlstetter with the European Union.“53 The Spiegel also of the Yanukovych administration‘s also had an important part in writing commented on this remark: „He said that decision to factually dump it in November this paper. Cf. Mann, James: Rise of Kiev had to decide which path it wanted 2013, is plainly obvious, and to a good the Vulcans: The History of Bush’s War to take. The message was clear: Kiev had extent explains why subsequently the Cabinet, New York, 2004, pp. 209ff. to choose either Brussels or Moscow.“54 situation escalated so dramatically. To put 8. Tyler, Patrick E.: Pentagon Drops Goal the blame for this on Russia alone, as is of Blocking New Superpowers, The Accordingly, to sign such an agreement common practice currently, means assum- New York Times, 24 May, 1992. means to take a practically irreversible, ing a position miles away from reality: „The 9. Halper, Stefan/Clarke, Jonathan: America momentous geopolitical decision, in an geopolitical conflict about the Ukraine was Alone: The Neo-Conservatives and the attempt to get ahead of Moscow and deal not ignited by the association agreement in Global Order, Cambridge, 2004. The Bear a heavy blow in the process. itself, but by the refusal to sign it. The EU 10. Russia’s Expanding Influence, Such a blow was intended to be all the was convinced that this withdrawal lacked Stratfor, 08 March, 2010. heavier as the Agreement provides for the any kind of internal political rationality and 11. Kramer, Mark: No Such Promise, in: Ukraine‘s comprehensive integration into attributed it to the long arm of Moscow. […] Foreign Affairs, November/December, European military structures. Thereby, It may well be that in this matter, everybody 2014; Russlands Anschuldigungen – eine Russia‘s suspicion that this in fact means is pointing their fingers at Moscow. Yet Richtigstellung, NATO Informationsblatt, joining the Western alliance receives further the conflict‘s geopolitical aggravation was April, 2014; Kramer, Mark: The Myth of a confirmation: „The Parties shall intensify predetermined by the European Union. It No-NATO-Enlargement Pledge to Russia, their dialogue and cooperation and promote had confronted the Ukrainian government in: The Washington Quarterly, Vol. 32, gradual convergence in the area of foreign with the made-up alternative of either EU No. 2 (April, 2009), pp. 39-61. For an and security policy, including the Common association or membership in the Eurasian opposing position: Sarotte, Mary Elise: Security and Defence Policy (CSDP)“.55 The Economic Union project. A casual glance A Broken Promise? What the West Really Ukraine has of course been included in at the structure of Ukrainian exports Told Moscow About NATO Expansion, NATO and EU military structures for quite makes clear that an exclusive trade agree- in: Foreign Affairs, September/October, some time, e.g. as part of NATO‘s „Partner- ment with the EU provides the Ukrainian 2014; Sarotte, Mary Elise: Perpetuating ship for Peace“ programme, by participating economy with very few new prospects.“59 U.S. Preeminence. The 1990 Deals to in the EU‘s Atalanta operation at the Horn “Bribe the Soviets Out” and Move NATO of Africa, and even as part of an EU battle Just as pointedly and concisely, the power In, in: International Security, Vol. 35, group during the first half of 2014.56 Still, politics background and the scope of No. 1 (Summer 2010), pp. 110-137. it is obvious that by means of the Agree- consequences of the conflict were de- 12. Hassel, Florian: Erst Manöver, dann Krieg, ment, such integration is intended to be scribed by Michael Stürmer in the Ger- Frankfurter Rundschau, 10 Sept, 2008. consolidated quite a bit further, as e.g. the man newspaper Die Welt: „Putin wants [to 13. Das große Rätsel um Genschers following formulation clarifies: „The Par- create] the Eurasian Customs Union, the angebliches Versprechen, Frankfurter ties shall enhance practical cooperation EU wants to shift Kiev towards the West Allgemeine Zeitung, 19 April, 2015. in conflict prevention and crisis manage- with an association agreement. […] What 14. Ignorant und Arrogant. Der unglückliche

12 Umgang der USA mit Russland, Geopolitik, IMI-Studie 2008/010b. Stratfor, 13 April, 2010. Weltspiegel, 09 March, 2014. 27. The term New Cold War was popularised 43. To an even greater extent, Russia was 15. Das große Rätsel um Genschers mainly by Lucas, Edward: The New Cold aiming at gaining complete control angebliches Versprechen, Frankfurter War: Putin’s Russia and the Threat to the of one of the central transport paths Allgemeine Zeitung, 19 April, 2015. West, New York/Basingstoke, 2008. for Russian gas to western Europe. 16. Ibid. 28. Kagan, Robert: Die Demokratie und 44. Green, Niall: The Ukrainian Election and 17. Gorbachev: how we pulled down ihre Feinde, Bonn 2008, p. 7. The the Demise of the “Orange Revolution”, the Berlin Wall, Russia Beyond the English-language quote here is a World Socialist Web Site, 03 March, 2010. Headlines, 30 October, 2014. back-translation from the German 45. Malygina, Katerina: Ukrainische 18. The other states were Bulgaria, edition of Kagan’s book, not a quote Präsidentschaftswahlen 2010: Wahl Romania, Slovenia and Slovakia. from the original English edition! ohne Sieger, in: Ukraine-Analysen, No. 19. Neuber, Arno: Schild und Schwert: 29. Ikenberry, John/Slaughter, Anne- 67/2010, 26 Jan, 2010, pp. 2-4, p. 2. Aggressive Atompolitik und Raketenabwehr Marie: Forging a World of Liberty under 46. Bidder, Benjamin: Präsidentschaftswahl der NATO, IMI-Analyse 2009/012. Law, September, 2006, pp. 29f. in der Ukraine. Der Sieger heißt Moskau, 20. Dmitri Trenin as quoted by Gerns, Willi: 30. Leonard, Mark: Divided world: the Spiegel Online, 17 Jan, 2010. Putinsche Russland, in: Marxistische struggle for primacy in 2020, Centre 47. Yanukovych Confirms No Plans Blätter, No. 1/2015, pp. 67-78, p. 74. for European Reform, Policy Brief, to Take Ukraine into NATO, RIA 21. Often, Russian president Vladimir Putin is January 2007, p. 2; Wijk,Rob de: The Novosti, 13 Feb, 2010. accused of a kind of pathological hatred consequences for Europe of the global 48. Ukraine drops Nato membership of the US which supposedly is a remnant crisis, in: Europe’s World, Autumn 2009. bid, EUobserver, 04 June, 2010. of his time with the KGB. A critical point 31. Busse, Nikolaus: Harte Zeiten für 49. EU oder Russland: Ukraine quält sich mit of view on this is assumed by Fiona Hill Friedensbewegte. Eine multipolare Dreiecksbeziehung, RIA Novosti, 22 Aug, and Clifford G. Gaddy, who in their book Welt bringt die klassische Machtpolitik 2013. English-language quote translated “Mr. Putin: Operative in the Kremlin”, wieder zurück, in: Internationale from this German-language article. published in excerpts in The Atlantic, make Politik, Juni 2009, pp. 49-53, p. 53. 50. Association Agreement between the the finding that US actions since the end 32. The draft of the European Security European Union and its Member States, of the Cold War are the reason for Putin’s Treaty, November 29, 2009: http:// of the one part, and Ukraine, of the other negative US image, not any kind of deep- eng.kremlin.ru/news/275 part, Official Journal of the European seated anti-Americanism. See Hill, Fiona/ 33. Klein, Margarete: Medwedews Union, Volume 57, 29 May, 2014. Gaddy, Clifford G.: The American Education Vorschlag für einen euroatlantischen 51. Wagner, Jürgen: Ringen um die of Vladimir Putin. How the Russian leader Sicherheitsvertrag, in: russland-analysen Machtgeometrie. Neoliberales came to oppose a country he knows No. 193, 04 Dec, 2009, p. 2. Assoziationsabkommen und little about, The Atlantic, 16 Feb, 2015. 34. Clinton sagt njet - und umwirbt die Russen, europäisch-russische Machtkonflikte, 22. Vladimir Putin’s appearance in the Süddeutsche Zeitung, 17 May, 2010. IMI-Studie 2c/2014, p. 5f. in September 2001 is generally 35. Atilgan, Canan u.a.: Die Eurasische 52. Füle, Stefan: Statement on the seen as an attempt of this kind, when he Union. Ein Integrationsprojekt pressure exercised by Russia on stated: “I am of the opinion that Europe auf dem Prüfstand, in: KAS countries of the Eastern Partnership, will only consolidate its reputation as Auslandsinformationen, 2/2014, pp. 8-51. European Commission, Speech a powerful and autonomous centre of 36. Popescu, Nicu: Eurasian Union: the real, 13/687, 11 Sept, 2013. global politics if it combines its own the imaginary and the likely, EUISS, Chaillot 53. Summit of Failure, www.spiegel. capacities with the Russian human, Paper, No. 132, 09 September, 2014. de/international 24 Nov, 2014. territorial and natural resources as 37. Meckel, Markus u.a.: Deutsche 54. Ibid. well as with the economic, cultural and Außenpolitik und Östliche Partnerschaft, 55. Association Agreement, Title defence potentials of Russia.” Speech Positionspapier der Expertengruppe II, Article 7, Section 1. by Russian President Vladimir Putin Östliche Partnerschaft, DGAPstandpunkt 56. Drucksache 18/1221 of the before the German Bundestag on 25 No. 1/2012, p. 2, quoted according to Deutscher Bundestag, p. 4. September, 2001 in Berlin, documented Achelpöhler, Wilhelm/Cremer, Uli: Ukraine: 57. Association Agreement, Title in: Internationale Politik, October, 2001. Wir müssen über Geopolitik reden, Grüne II, Article 10, Section 1. 23. Fischer, Sabine: Die russische Politik Friedensinitiative, 04 March, 2014. 58. Vogel, Thomas: Wie weiter? Das gegenüber Ukraine und Weißrussland, 38. Brzezinski, Zbigniew: The Grand Assoziierungsabkommen der EU in: Aus Politik und Zeitgeschichte, Chessboard. American Primacy and im Spannungsfeld von Wirtschaft No. 08-09/2007, pp. 16-23. its Geostrategic Imperatives, New und Menschenrechten, in: Ukraine- 24. Speech by Russian president Vladimir Putin York, 1997, pp. 46 and 121. Analysen, No. 103/2012, 08 at the 43rd Munich “Security Conference”; 39. Friedman, George: Russia Examines Its May, 2012, pp. 2-6, p. 4. English translation from the original Options for Responding to Ukraine, Stratfor 59. Müller, Klaus: Die Ukraine am Abgrund. Russian transcript as published on the Geopolitical Weekly, 18 March, 2014. Wie oligarchische Politik und ethnische official web site of the Russian President. 40. Russia’s Expanding Influence, Part 1: The Polarisierung die Ukraine zerreißen, 25. Analysis: Putin im Harnisch, dpa (Deutsche Necessities, Stratfor, 09 March, 2010. Deutschlandfunk, 20 March, 2015. Presseagentur), 10 Feb, 2007. 41. Druck aus Moskau treibt Ukraine in die 60. Stürmer, Michael: Russland oder 26. Hantke, Martin: “Alles wieder Arme der EU, euractiv, 30 August, 2013. die EU – wer bekommt die Ukraine? offen”: Georgienkrieg und imperiale 42. Kyrgyzstan and the Russian Resurgence, Die Welt, 23 Oct, 2013.

13 2. The Ukraine in the Sights of EUropean Ambitions and Strategies

As pointed out above, only from a narrow viewpoint can it be said that the deteriora- tion of Russian-Western relations and the escalation in the Ukraine is the fault of NATO (and thus more or less explicitly the USA) alone. This is also, and not least, a result of an aggressive EUropean expan- sion policy derived from the aspiration of wanting to establish EUrope on the global scene as a world power on a par with the other great powers (Chapter 2.1). One prerequisite to this end is considered to be the creation of a Greater European economic zone and sphere of influence as a kind of „imperial base of operations“, with the immediate priority on the neigh- bouring regions to be „conquered“ and secured by military means (Chapter 2.2).

For this purpose, work towards a neoliberal reconstruction of the neighbouring coun- tries has been going on for years, while at Champion of „EUrope as a Global Power“: Martin Schulz.(Source: European Union) the same time providing Western European corporations with resources and especially were supported massively (Chapter 2.5). towards an offensive stance, the previous also with new investment and sales markets In this, possible conflicts with other framework conditions began to change fun- as well as cheaper labour and production countries which are not prepared to sit by damentally from the early 1990s onwards. facilities. This was implemented in a first ex- idly and just watch as the EU endeavours In similarity to the US, contemplations were pansion phase with EU enlargement towards to expand are considered acceptable, as made also in the EU how to react to the new the East (Chapter 2.3). However, after its is pointed out, for instance, by former situation, viz.: how best to exploit it advanta- „successful“ completion in 2004, for rea- German foreign minister : geously. The result was that „relevant“ cir- sons to be discussed in greater detail below, „The EU will have to understand that in its cles quickly agreed that the opportunity to a new strategy was now required. The fruit eastern and southern neighbourhood, it is rise to the level of a global player in power of these contemplations was the „European not operating in a region devoid of inter- politics should be utilised purposefully. Neighbourhood Policy“ (ENP) initiated in the ests, but that it will be confronted with same year, a programme according to the the antagonistic interests of other powers, Since then, with increasing blatancy, maxim of European „expansion without en- even with rivals […] The EU‘s enlargement influential exponents of European politics largement“ (Georg Vobruba). Just as in the policy […] is an indispensable element of the have been articulating the claim of wanting case of direct eastward enlargement, the European Union‘s security, even its most to join the front ranks in the global quar- countries in the neighbouring regions are significant way of projecting power outward rel over power and influence. Thus, Martin to be permanently integrated into a Greater into its geopolitical neighbourhood.“61 Schulz, President of the EU Parliament European economic zone and sphere of and poster boy of the Social Democrats in influence, though with the crucial difference 2.1 EUrope as a World Power the EU, wrote: „Europe, whether it wants that they are not offered any realistic pros- to or not, is a global player. The EU is the pect of full EU membership (Chapter 2.4). To the present day, the myth is purported largest and wealthiest single market in the that the European Union is some kind of world, our economic power amounts to The principal instrument in achieving this is „geopolitical abstainer“ whose strategic one quarter of the global gross national the conclusion of an association agreement. foreign policy, if one exists at all, is at best product. The EU is the largest trading bloc Such an agreement was also negotiated crudely tinkered together more or less spon- world-wide, the biggest donor of develop- with the Ukraine. Though a close look at the taneously. What is correct about this notion ment aid world-wide – the EU is an eco- agreement document gives rise to the sug- is that in the specific constellation of the nomic giant. With global economic power gestion that it has the potential of causing Cold War, any targeted EU expansion policy comes responsibility in world politics an economic disaster in the country. Due to was factually impossible: „Under the condi- – Europe cannot evade such a mandate. the fact that on the one hand, the agree- tions of US hegemony and ideological com- Europe‘s partners – rightly – expect Europe ment favours Western European corpora- petition between the systems, there was no to rise to that challenge and expect the tions to a most significant degree, and on scope for any autonomous European strat- economic superpower to also become a the other hand, it is a core element of the egy during the post-war decades. In par- superpower in terms of world politics.“63 EUropean expansion strategy, its rejection ticular, this applied to foreign and security by the Yanukovych administration was seen policy.“62 Though with the fall of the Soviet At this point, the obvious question arises by the EU as nothing short of a declara- Union, the gradual decline of US power, and how, all declarations of intent notwith- tion of war, and immediately, any and all German reunification immediately followed standing, this is actually supposed to be attempts at overthrowing that government by a reorientation of German military policy achieved practically. The most „convinc-

14 ing“ concept in this respect is by James Asia, where the objective is to control the Indeed, within the political elites, discus- Rogers, co-founder of the „Group on shipping routes (see map). Specifically, sions have been going on for some time Grand Strategy“ (GoGS), an increasingly countries and regions are to be integrated on extending the EU‘s military presence influential association of geopoliticians.64 into the „Grand Area“ if they conform to as far as East Asia71, but it is clear that the following „profile of requirements“: greater importance is attached to control 2.2 Imperial Greater EUrope and of the immediate neighbouring region in the How To Secure It by Military Means „Given that certain powers have sought foreseeable future. Thus Thomas Renard, to take advantage of key regions and member of the Group on Grand Strategy‘s For quite some years, various members of entrench themselves – often to the disad- advisory board, also writes: „Of course, if the Group on Grand Strategy have been vantage of others – the European Union the EU wants to become a global power, it complaining about the West‘s rapid loss of should do more to ascertain the minimal first needs to assert itself as a power in its influence, in particular that of EU countries. geographic area required to sustain the own region.“72 So in this context, following In drastic words, the two GoGS direc- continued expansion of its own economy. Rogers‘ point of view, Eastern Europe and tors James Rogers and Luis Simón thus From a geopolitical perspective this therefore also primarily the Ukraine are to demand a serious turnaround in matters zone would have to meet five criteria: be attributed a very particular significance, of power politics: „Today, in the second 1. It would have to hold all the basic especially when taking Russia into account: decade of the twenty-first century, the resources necessary to fuel Euro- „Eastern Europe is the gateway between European Union, its Member States and pean manufacturing needs and fu- the vast resources of Asia and the dense the European people stand at a cross- ture industrial requirements; and technologically advanced populations roads. As a new generation has started to 2. Contain all the key trade routes, es- of Europe. This means that it will either be come to power and new geopolitical forces pecially energy transmission pipelines controlled by imperial despotism in the form have begun to reshape the world around and maritime shipping routes, from other of Russia, or by democratic civilisation in us, the political vision that once guided regions to the European homeland; the form of Europe. Due to its geostrategic European integration has lost its way. […] 3. Have the fewest possible geopolitical location, who gains access over this crucial We should be under no illusions here; even afflictions that could lead to the area’s zone will also gain influence over the entire our shared liberal values are not immune disintegration and thereby harm future Eurasian supercontinent. When Eastern from corrupting foreign influence, particu- European economic development; Europe is controlled from Moscow, Euro- larly in a world where large and potentially 4. Show the least likelihood of significant peans – and by extension, North Ameri- predatory autocracies will acquire more encroachment by powerful foreign actors, cans – will be held captive, as they were and more influence and power. We argue relative to its importance to the European for much of the Cold War. When Eastern that, increasingly, it will only be through an economy and geopolitical interests; Europe is shaped by Brussels (as well as effective grand strategy and sheer power 5. Represent an area the European Union London, Paris and Berlin) – and by exten- that we will be able to protect European can work towards defending most cost-ef- sion, Washington – Russia will be weakened values […] Europeans currently face two fectively through the expansion of the Com- and rendered relatively harmless, as it was futures: a future of power or a future of mon Security and Defence Policy [...].“67 for much of the 1990s and 2000s.“73 ruin. There is no alternative: we can either remain the rulers, or become the ruled.“65 In addition, in order to exert control over One might just dismiss Rogers‘ contem- the „Grand Area“, it should be covered plations as the product of some seriously To be „armed“ for such developments to an with a dense network of European military misguided eccentric, but we are certainly optimal degree, thus their argument, the Eu- bases: „The ‚Grand Area‘ approach would not dealing with any kind of a „geopolitical ropean Union now needs to commit to a sys- attempt to integrate those countries into a backbencher“ here. This is evident from the tematically pursued geostrategy aiming at permanent Europe-led system, underpinned fact that he was commissioned by the EU‘s expansion of its sphere of influence and es- by military stations, better communication own strategic think tank, the „Institute for tablishment of an imperial grand area. Along lines and tighter partnerships – a European Security Studies“ (EUISS), to write one of these lines, GoGS co-director James Rogers ‚forward presence‘ – to reduce the need the core papers on the future of EU military wrote in 2011: „The ultimate aim of geo- for sporadic intervention.“68 This network policy, in which large elements of his „Grand strategy, then, is to link geography and poli- of military bases is primarily designed Area“ concept were incorporated.74 tics to maximize the power and reach of the to emphasise two aims: „Firstly, to deter domestic territory. [....] Such an approach foreign powers from meddling in countries Prominent politicians such as Radek Sikor- must be backed up by a subtle but formida- in the wider European Neighbourhood ski, Polish foreign minister until 2014, also ble military posture, which aims to prevent and secondly, to dissuade obstinacy and assume similar positions: „If the EU wants potential rivals from emerging [...].“66 misbehaviour on the part of local rulers“.69 to become a superpower – and Poland sup- Specifically, he then proposes to construct a ports this – then we must have the capabil- Based on this, Rogers developed crite- whole series of new bases: „New European ity to exert influence in our neighbourhood. ria according to which he stakes out the military stations may be required in the […] Sometimes we must use force to back borders of such a „Grand Area“ and thus Caucasus and Central Asia, the Arctic re- our diplomacy.“75 For instance, in one of provides a kind of cartography, so to gion, and along the coastlines of the Indian the then-relevant strategy papers preparing speak, of an EU Empire. It includes large Ocean. The intention behind these installa- the „EU Arms Summit“ in December 2013, parts of Africa, the oil-rich Caspian and tions would be to […] exercise a latent but Catherine Ashton, EU High Representative Central Asian region and the Middle East, permanent power within the ‚Grand Area.‘“70 for Foreign Affairs at the time, quite openly but also extends it a long way to East declared the entire neighbourhood region

15 Source: Rogers, James: A New Geography of European Power?, Egmont Paper, No. 42, January 2011

Evil Model: The USA’s “Grand Area”

James Rogers uses the term “Grand Area”, of 12 February, 1948 postulates that the relationships which will permit us to which he has borrowed from US geopoli- defeated and occupied powers Germany maintain this position of disparity without tics. It stands for a concept designed with and Japan must be reconstructed as active positive detriment to our national secu- the explicit aim of maintaining poverty and items of a capitalist world order, which is rity. To do so, we will have to dispense inequality in the world. A detailed outline supposed to be achieved by means of the with all sentimentality and day-dreaming; of this concept was provided by George F. resources of the so-called Third World. and our attention will have to be con- Kennan, who with his “Long Telegram” is In this world order, free trade and the centrated everywhere on our immediate considered to have initiated the contain- dominance of the Western civilisation are national objectives. We need not deceive ment policy against the Soviet Union and to be the sole governing principles.”1 ourselves that we can afford today the aggressive US politics during the Cold War luxury of altruism and world-benefaction. (from which he later dissociated himself). Some concrete suggestions in the PPS/23 […] We should cease to talk about vague were: “This being the case, we must be and — for the Far East — unreal objec- By giving the first fundamental declaration very careful when we speak of exercising tives such as human rights, the raising of the “Group on Grand Strategy” the title “leadership” in Asia. We are deceiving our- of the living standards, and democratiza- “The New Long Telegram” as well as con- selves and others when we pretend to have tion. The day is not far off when we are ceptually placing his notion of imperial ter- the answers to the problems which agitate going to have to deal in straight power ritory in the tradition of the USA’s “Grand many of these Asiatic peoples. Further- concepts. The less we are then ham- Area”, James Rogers confirms his affinity more, we have about 50% of the world’s pered by idealistic slogans, the better.”2 for such an approach to world domina- wealth but only 6.3% of its population. This tion: “A description of the ‘Grand Area’ disparity is particularly great as between 1. From: Wikipedia: Grand Area (translated is given by the leading member of the ourselves and the peoples of Asia. In this from the German-language article) Policy Planning Staff at the State Depart- situation, we cannot fail to be the object 2. Excerpt from the Policy Planning Study, ment, George F. Kennan. The top-secret of envy and resentment. Our real task in Chapter VII. Far East, page 524, as paper Policy Planning Study 23 (PPS/23) the coming period is to devise a pattern of quoted in Wikipedia: Grand Area

16 a factual European area of influence and Votes in Council Votes in Council intervention: „The renewed emphasis by the (in % Treaty of Nice) (in % Treaty of Lisbon) US on the Asia-Pacific region is a logical Germany 8,40 15,93 consequence of geostrategic developments France 8,40 12,98 [note: the rise of China]. It also means that Europe must assume greater respon- United Kingdom 8,40 12,61 sibility for its own security. […] The Union Italy 8,40 11,81 must be able to act decisively as a security Spain 7,83 9,24 provider, in partnership where possible but autonomously where necessary, in its Poland 7,83 7,62 neighbourhood, including through direct Romania 4,04 3,97 intervention. Strategic autonomy must ma- Netherlands 3,77 3,32 terialize first in the EU‘s neighbourhood.“76 Belgium 3,48 2,21 A similar formulation can be found in Greece 3,48 2,19 „European Global Strategy“, a document Czech Republik 3,48 2,08 outlining a global EU strategy, commis- sioned by the foreign ministers of Spain, Portugal 3,48 2,07 Poland, Italy and : „The EU’s global Hungary 3,48 1,96 influence will increasingly be determined Sweden 2,90 1,89 by its actions in its strategic neighbour- hood. […] The EU should also be prepared Austria 2,90 1,67 to undertake autonomously the full spec- Bulgaria 2,90 1,43 trum of civilian and military missions in Denmark 2,03 1,11 the strategic neighbourhood in keeping with international law, when and where Finland 2,03 1,07 this is necessary to protect vital European Slovakia 2,03 1,07 interests. This implies the ability to project Ireland 2,03 0,91 both civilian and military capabilities.“77 Croatia N/A 0,84 2.3 Expansion, Phase I: the Lithuania 2,03 0,59 EU‘s Eastern Enlargement Slovenia 1,16 0,41 Latvia 1,16 0,40 EU expansion took place in two stages, of which the first was the so-called eastern Estonia 1,16 0,26 enlargement, which to a relevant extent Cyprus 1,16 0,17 had already been decided upon with pas- Luxembourg 1,16 0,11 sage of the Copenhagen criteria in 1993. To be formally admitted into the European Malta 0,88 0,08 Union, the membership candidates had to submit to a neoliberal shock therapy, which Weighting of votes in EU Council. Source: Council Decision of 29 September, 2014 amending in essence meant to abandon all protec- the Council‘s Rules of Procedure (2014/692/EU, Euratom) tive measures for the respective national economy. The argument employed by the EU in this was that intensified competition trade-based capitalist market economy to demanded of the candidates, in 2004 and against the –technologically far superior function successfully. […] Though to evoke 2007, a total of twelve new countries, nearly and more productive – western European the principles of sporting fairness and of all of them in eastern Europe, were inte- companies for markets and business would unimpeded competition ignores the blatant grated into the EU‘s sphere of influence as lead to a considerable increase in efficiency disparity of the economic and political subordinate members. Even though just re- and productivity, which would also be of power relations in global trade.“78 The entire cently, on the occasion of the 10th anniver- benefit to the membership candidates at project was therefore neither fair nor just: sary of the eastern enlargement, the whole least in the medium term. An analogy to this „The European Union‘s eastern enlargement venture was brazenly declared a „success „competition-is-good-for-business“ posi- primarily serves the purpose of opening up story“, the real situation is a completely tion the EU assumed (and maintains to the new market spaces to the strongest powers different matter: „For the side of Capital, the present day) might be that a race between in the West – the so-called ‚global players‘, result was something to be proud of. What a Ferrari and a Polski Fiat is fair simply be- and to secure these by means of the legal had been created was nothing less than cause they are on the same road together: regime of the ‚Acquis communautaire‘.“79 economic convergence while at the same „Historically, the promotion of free trade has time maintaining social and fiscal diver- always been the privilege of the powerful. On the whole, this strategy was extremely gence. In other words: entry into the EU And to promote and maintain inequality has „successful“: after years of negotiations in institutionally secured the economic takeo- always been a prerequisite for the free- which far-reaching concessions had been vers which in most cases had already been

17 transacted before. […] The most important […] For the EU, the new voting procedure 70,000-80,000 pages containing all the economic sectors, such as the banking sec- is a further step away from a community of legal acts which are binding for all member tor or large-scale industry are in the hands sovereign states with equal rights towards states: „The EU aquis, which has established of western European, frequently German a hierarchically structured Union with a common market based on the free move- owners. In case of the automotive industry, Germany as the hegemon at the top.“82 ment of goods, persons, services and capi- their share in Poland, Czechia, Hungary and tal, ensuring competition and a level playing Slovakia is between 91 and 97 percent, for Conversely, the new regulation also means field […] , could serve as a model for coun- the banks between 71 and 96 percent. At that accession of new, especially of popu- tries undertaking institutional and economic breakneck speed, the respective societies lous countries would change the power reform. [...] The EU therefore should stand have gone through a process of social and structure again to the disadvantage of the ready to work in close partnership with the regional divergent development. Deep rifts current major EU powers, which is exactly neighbouring countries who wish to imple- formed also between the generations; old why further enlargement is not under any ment further reforms and assist in building people can no longer get by on their pen- serious debate at the moment.83 Consider- their capacity to align with and implement sions, and young people emigrate in search ing such a background, the method of „ex- parts of the acquis communautaire.“87 of a better future. With the exception of pansion by enlargement“ – which was actu- Czechia, official unemployment statistics ally successful – could and can no longer be This signifies that with the ENP, the very throughout show two-figure percentages“80 applied: „Even before implementation of the same objectives are pursued as with eastern enlargement in 2004, contempla- eastern enlargement: any noble intentions One important reason why the decision- tions began in the EU Commission how mat- notwithstanding, the priority is quite clearly makers at the time were prepared to submit ters were to be continued afterwards. […] on neoliberal restructuring and – peripheral to the directives from Brussels was prob- The EU had reached the limits of its devel- – integration of the neighbouring countries ably that they were hoping to successively opment dynamics until then, the alternating into the Greater European economic zone reverse the painful concessions by means reinforcement of integration and enlarge- and area of influence88: „What is not said of their right of co-determination once ment. […] Yet it was also clear that to end is that the main objective of the economic membership had been finalised. What they this expansion dynamic abruptly could not integration is to strengthen the EU’s global had failed to reckon with, though, were the be in the EU‘s interest. […] So what had to competiveness, to incorporate economies major EU powers. Even before the eastern be done was to develop a concept allowing into the empire’s expanding economy (the enlargement was implemented, the latter for further EU expansion without forcing the EU) and to access natural resources in an attempted to ensure, by means of the 2003 EU into any further enlargement. How is it energy-rich Neighbourhood. The EU’s formi- Constitutional Treaty, that in future, the pro- possible to expand without enlargement?“84 dable concentration of wealth and economic portion of votes in the most important EU power have given it leverage to impose body, the Council of heads of state and gov- 2.4 Expansion, Phase II: EUrope‘s market-friendly reforms including privatiza- ernment, would be determined even more Imperial Neighbourhood Policy tion, trade liberalization and the adoption of strictly according to the population size of EU regulatory mechanisms while bypassing a country. After renewed, hotly contested Already in 2003, the way was paved for the wider debates in peripheral societies. In negotiations, the new regulation finally new EU expansion strategy by the Com- doing so, however, it risks creating politi- became effective with the Treaty of Lisbon mission‘s communication „Wider Europe“, cal destabilization rather than stability, as on 01 December, 2009 and, after a transi- in preparation for introduction of the well as deepening social and economic tion period, has been the established voting European Neighbourhood Policy one year inequalities in the Neighbourhood…“89 practice since 01 November, 2014. This was later. Regarding the endeavour‘s objective, to guarantee that small and medium-sized the EU external relations commissioner at Only in one, albeit most relevant, detail can member states have no or only little pos- the time, Benita Ferrero-Waldner, wrote a difference be found to the EU‘s eastern sibility of exerting influence on EU policy, shortly after the Neighbourhood Policy enlargement: for the reasons given above, as for instance Vaclav Klaus, ex-president was launched: „To share the political and no willingness to offer the ENP countries the of Czechia, acknowledged in perplexion economic advantages of enlargement with prospect of membership was demonstrated. about ten years after his country had been our new neigbours, we have conceived the In the Commission‘s „Wider Europe“ paper, accepted into the EU: „I have to say quite European Neighbourhood Policy. By means the matter is worded rather tersely: „A harshly that we have zero influence.“81 of this policy, we are establishing a ‚circle of response to the practical issues posed by friends‘ along the borders of the extended proximity and neighbourhood should be Where there are losers in the struggle about EU. This is a key geostrategic project for seen as separate from the question of EU the new voting arrangements, there are Europe. This zone of stability and prosperity accession.“90 To „convince“ politics and so- obviously also winners: „This way, the bal- is intended to extend from eastern Europe cieties of those neighbouring countries, thus ance in the EU shifts considerably, as due via the Caucasus and the Near East right deprived of the carrot of EU membership, of to introduction of the criterion of population across the entire Mediterranean region.“85 the need for the stick of neoliberal reforms, size, no less than 23 of 28 member coun- mainly substantial funding is to be provided tries lose influence in the Union. In relative Officially the ENP, which currently extends – for the „European Neighbourhood Instru- terms, the large states France, Great Britain, to 15 countries all around the European ment“ (ENI) alone, nearly EUR 15.5 bn have Italy, Spain and Romania gained impact. Union , is much concerned with promoting been allocated in the budget for 2014 to The main winner, though, is the country democracy and prosperity. In fact, the core 2020.91 The main stipulations and regula- with the largest population by far in the aim actually is those countries‘ adoption tions for appearing as a commendable, pe- Union: the Federal Republic of Germany. of the „acquis communautaire“, of those ripherally integrated client and investment

18 ules‘)“ (Title IV, Article 29, Section 1). Whoever dares to endure the severely irri- tating venture of attempting to comprehend what Annex I-A is about will be confronted with a list about 1,500 pages long, detailing the future tariffs for nearly every product one can imagine. Thankfully, the European Commission itself provided some measure of clarification by pointing out in a back- ground paper that with the association agreement, tariffs will be reduced by 99,1% (Ukraine) or respectively 98,1% (EU).96

Beyond this, so-called non-tariff trade bar- riers – such as quantity limits – are also factually prohibited: „No Party shall adopt or maintain any prohibition or restriction or any measure having an equivalent effect on the import of any good of the other Party or on the export or sale for export EU Enlargement Commissioner at the time, Stefan Füle, at the summit of the Eastern Partner- of any good destined for the territory ship in end-November, 2013. (Source: European Union) of the other Party, except as otherwise provided in this Agreement or in accord- region for the EU centre are defined as bind- veritable economic boom from this agree- ance with Article XI of GATT 1994 and its ing in an association agreement with the ment. Thus, EU enlargement commissioner interpretative notes.“ (Title IV, Article 35) European Union negotiated (viz.: imposed by Stefan Füle predicted that after signing the EU) as part of the Neighbourhood Policy. the association agreement, Ukrainian A further measure of considerable im- These agreements are therefore at the exports to the EU were expected to double, pact is concealed in a passage under core of the current EU expansion strategy, resulting in a 12% increase of the gross the unobtrusive heading „Approximation as for instance Joachim Becker, professor domestic product in total.95 However, a of technical regulations, standards and at the Vienna University of Economics, careful look at the document gives rise to conformity assessment“. According to this, points out: „The association agreements serious doubts about such an assessment. the Ukraine is obligated to adopt European the EU is promoting in the post-Soviet production and certification standards in region are a key element in expanding the In principle, the Ukraine is obligated not order to be permitted to sell goods in the EU‘s sphere of influence eastwards.“92 only to adopt the current EU legislative EU at all.97 To achieve this, it is most likely acquis, but also any and all future laws com- that in nearly all Ukrainian enterprises, 2.5 Neoliberal Association Agreement: ing from Brussels at its own national level. investments of such an extent would be The Ukraine as a Typical Example This factually makes the Ukraine a non- required that such a stipulation represents voting member of the European common an almost insurmountable trade barrier; Only a short while after the „Orange market with no right of co-determination that obstacle can likely only be overcome in Revolution“ of 2004, the European Com- whatsoever regarding decisions made in areas where the EU explicitly so desires.98 mission mandated a study to analyse the Brussels, while nevertheless having to effects of a „Deep and Comprehensive Free comply with them: „an act correspond- It is rather obvious that in „free and fair Trade Agreement“ between the Ukraine ing to a EU Regulation or Decision shall competition“ under such conditions against and the European Union. The institutions as such be made part of the internal legal the more productive and technically clearly commissioned with this were the „Centre order of Ukraine“ (Annex XVII, Article 2a). more advanced western European enter- for European Policy Studies“ (CEPS), the prises, Ukrainian businesses are very likely „Institut für Weltwirtschaft“ (Institute for Further elements of the document: „The to find themselves at a serious disadvan- World Economy, IFW) and the „Interna- Parties shall progressively establish a free tage. Along these lines, Joachim Becker tional Centre for Policy Studies“ (ICPS), trade area over a transitional period of a also criticises: „The geo-economic and whose findings were that such a free trade maximum of 10 years […].“ (Title IV, Article geo-political thrust of the agreements is agreement would be of great benefit to 25) For this purpose, among other meas- particularly evident in case of the Ukraine. both sides.93 On such a basis, negotia- ures, customs duties by which a country Reaching far beyond a liberalisation of tions regarding an association agreement, can increase the prices of another country‘s trade, the Ukraine is to be partly integrated with such a „Deep and Comprehensive goods to protect its own economy must into the single EU market. This would mean Free Trade Area“ at its core, were initi- be abolished almost completely: „Each that the Ukraine is to adopt substantial ated, which by 2012 had led to a document Party shall reduce or eliminate customs parts of the EU‘s economic legislation. Not ready for signing, as already mentioned.94 duties on originating goods of the other only would the Ukraine lose its means of Party in accordance with the Schedules externally protecting its national economy, If one believes the statements by various set out in Annex I-A to this Agreement but also key options for a national industrial EU officials, the Ukraine can hope for a (hereinafter referred to as the ‚Sched- policy (e.g. regarding public tenders). […] A

19 the Yanukovych administration regarding the agreement grew. This was certainly not least in connection with the worries that Military Operations/Missions EUFOR ALTHEA „their own“ oligarchs might come off badly Bosnia Civilian Missions Herzegovina in the continued looting of the Ukraine. But Since 2004 EUAM Ukraine in general, concerns about the negative Since 2014 EULEX economic effects of the agreement quite Kosovo Since 2008 obviously also had a decisive part. For while EUPOL on the Western side, resorting to figures Afghanistan Since 2007 calculated by the „German Advisory Group“, EUBAM EUPOL COPPS the consequences for trade with Russia Libya Palestinian Since 2013 Territories were considered to be comparatively mild, EUNAVFOR Since 2006 MED with an estimated decline in export in the Mediterranean Since 2015 region of US$ 3 bn, Yanukovych presented EUTM EUBAM RAFAH Mali Since 2013 Palestinian EUMM very different figures. He was referring to Territories Georgia Since 2005 Since 2008 the gigantic sum of US$ 160 bn which had

EUMAM RCA been provided as an estimate by the „Insti- Central African Republic tute for Economics and Forecasting at the EUCAP Since 2015 National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine“ SAHEL 103 Mali EUTM of the costs for all adjustment measures. Since 2014 Somalia Since 2010 The Spiegel describes the corresponding EUCAP SAHEL dialogue between Yanukovych and former Niger EU NAVFOR Since 2012 EUCAP ATALANTA EU enlargement commissioner Füle as fol- NESTOR Somalia Djibouti, Since 2008 lows: „‘Stefan, if we sign, will you help us?‘ EUSEC RD Somalia, Seychelles, Congo Tanzania Yanukovych asked. Füle was speechless. Since 2005 Since 2012 ‚Sorry, we aren‘t the IMF. Where do these numbers come from?‘ he finally demanded. ‚I am hearing them for the first time.‘ They are secret numbers, Yanukovych replied. ‚Can you imagine what would happen if our Current EU military and civilian operations. (Source: European Union) people were to learn of these numbers, were they to find out what convergence with ‚deep and comprehensive‘ free trade zone and food products to Russia. This means the EU would cost our country?‘“104 It was is a core element of the agreement. Though that the economic value added to goods thus clear that from the Ukrainian point of for the Ukraine, ‚in-depth‘ free trade and delivered to the West is much lower than view, considerable amendments and im- the adoption of core elements of EU eco- that for products exported to Russia.“100 provements were required. In this respect, nomic legislation are most likely to result in mid-November 2013, Mikhail Chechetov, in deeper-reaching de-industrialisation and It was a well-known fact among those in deputy chairman of the Party of Regions, deeply rooted dependence structures.“99 charge on the EU side that this was going which formed the government at the time, to create serious problems both in the stated: „We are not prepared to sign this Yet a further obstacle was Russia‘s threat relations with Russia and with the Ukrain- agreement if hundreds of enterprises, that in case an association agreement was ian government. When EU enlargement especially in the country‘s area of high in- signed, it would seal off its market more commissioner at the time, Stefan Füle, was dustrial density, will have to close down.“105 tightly against Ukrainian products: „Foreign warned by Ukrainian oligarch Viktor Pinchuk trade relations clearly reveal how desperate- during the negotiation process that a solu- In this situation, in which the EU refused to ly the Ukraine needs Russia as an economic tion would have to be found which would budge even an inch from its own position, partner. According to the WIIW [Vienna also be acceptable to Russia and that there Russia even raised the stakes by holding Institute for International Economic Stud- might be difficulties, Füle had nothing better out the prospect of substantial benefits: a ies], of a total of 53 billion euros for which to say than „It‘s always difficult with the discount on gas supplies of approximately goods are exported, 25 percent go to Russia Russians.“101 Former EU enlargement com- US$ 3 bn per year and a buy-up of govern- and a further eight percent to the Moscow- missioner Günter Verheugen also remarked: ment bonds to the amount of US$ 15 bn. aligned Customs Union countries Kazakh- „The situation was simply that nobody talked Additionally, the Yanukovych administration stan and Byelarus. Five percent of Ukrainian with Russia about what the association of in its spot of extreme financial trouble had exports go to Turkey, four percent to Egypt, the Ukraine (and others) means politically already asked the International Monetary followed by the top EU country, Poland, with and economically. Russian concerns that Fund for that very same amount and in 3.5 percent. […] Further, the structure of because of it, trade with the Ukraine might reply was immediately proscribed a set foreign trade is of interest. While Ukrain- deteriorate were swept off the table.“102 of economic thumbscrews. According ian exports to the EU is mostly limited to to Ukrainian prime minister at the time, resources such as coal and steel, Kiev At the same time, and not only due to Mykola Azarov, this was what tipped the exports machinery, vehicles, aeroplanes Russian pressure alone, scepticism among balance in the end and led to the decision

20 not to sign the association agreement: „Shrinking trade with Russia [and] other 61. Fischer, Joschka: Scheitert Europa? (“Is CIS countries seriously threatens the Europe Failing?”), Cologne, 2014, p. 122. Ukrainian economy. The deterioration of 62. Bieling, Hans-Jürgen: Die Globalisierungs- economic relations with Russia resulted und Weltordnungspolitik der Europäischen in a recent downgrading of Ukrainian Union, Wiesbaden 2010, P. 53. credit rating by rating agency Fitch, Azarov 63. Schulz, Martin: Die Außenpolitik der explained further. The ‚last straw‘ was the Europäischen Union im 21. Jahrhundert: demand from the International Monetary Vision, Ambition, Wirklichkeit, Fund (IMF) of 20 November to raise gas Brussels, 26 February, 2013. prices for Ukrainian households, to freeze 64. For a more detailed analysis of the “Group salaries and to cut expenses. Only then on Grand Strategy”, see Wagner, Jürgen: could the Ukraine expect any credits.“106 Grand Area. Ein imperiales Raumkonzept für die Weltmacht EUropa, in: Wissenschaft One might say cynically that the EU was & Frieden, 1-2013, pp. 11-14. clearly outquoted by Russia in a bidding 65. Rogers, James/Simón, Luis: The new ‘long competition, so it is indeed comprehensible telegram’: Why we must re-found European that in November, 2013, the Yanukovych integration, Group on Grand Strategy, administration made its final decision Long Telegram 1/Summer 2011, p. 3. to dump the association agreement, at 66. Rogers, James: A New Geography least for the time being. To put it mildly, of European Power?, Egmont Paper, by doing so, the Ukrainian president had No. 42, January 2011, p. 16. not exactly gained in popularity in the 67. Ibid., p. 21. West, and certainly not in Germany. 68. Ibid., p. 5. 69. Ibid., p. 4. 70. Ibid., p. 23. 71. See for instance: Casarini, Nicola: The European “pivot”, EUISS Alert, No. 3, March 2013. 72. Renard, Thomas: Libya and the Post-American World: Implications for the EU, Egmont Security Policy Brief no. 20, April 2011, p. 5. 73. Rogers, James: A letter from Prof. Sir Halford Mackinder to European leaders on Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, European Geostrategy, 09.03.2014. 74. Gilli, Andrea/Rogers, James: Enabling the future: European military capabilities 2013-2025: challenges and avenues, EUISS, Report No. 16, May 2013. 75. Five EU countries call for new military »structure«, EUobserver, 16 Nov, 2012. 76. Ashton, Catherine: Preparing the December 2013 European Council on Security and Defence, Final Report by the High Representative/Head of the EDA on the Common Security and Defence Policy, Brussels, 15 October 2013, p. 2. 77. European Global Strategy (EGS): Towards a European Global Strategy. Securing European Influence in a Changing World, Final Report, 28 May 2013, p. 11f. 78. Leaman, Jeremy: Hegemonialer Merkantilismus: Die ökonomische Doppelmoral der Europäischen Union, in: Blätter für deutsche und internationale Politik, 2/2008, pp. 76-90, p. 77. 79. Hofbauer, Hannes: EU-Osterweiterung. Historische Basis - ökonomische Triebkräfte - soziale Folgen,

21 Vienna, 2007, p. 254. European Neighbourhood, in: Cambridge (Title IV, Article 56, Section 1) 80. Hofbauer, Hannes: Das Geschäft Review of International Affairs, Nr. 98. “Further, the Ukraine is obligated to adopt Osterweiterung läuft, Neues 2/2012, pp. 249-267, p. 254. EU technical standards and regulations Deutschland, 30 April, 2014. 90. Wider Europe, 2003, p. 5. to a great extent, for instance in the field 81. Ibid. 91. For the period 2007 to 2013, the of public tenders, in hygiene, regarding 82. Wehr, Andreas: Verbriefte Hegemonie, initial amount was EUR 12 bn, designations of origin or the protection junge Welt, 31 Oct, 2014. though this sum was later topped of intellectual property. The opening 83. What can be imagined at most after up by a further EUR 1.24 bn. up of markets is especially lucrative for acceptance of Croatia is membership 92. Becker, Joachim: Assoziierung Teil the export-strong EU countries, but also of further Balkan countries – of course des Problems, nicht der Lösung. large Ukrainian businesses in the heavy only if they behave accordingly. In Die EU-Strategie im Ukrainekonflikt, manufacturing and extractive industries as consideration of Russia as a competitor, in: Weltwirtschaft & Entwicklung, well as in agriculture are hoping for a large efforts in this direction have in fact 03-04/2014, pp. 1-4, p. 1 sales market in the EU.” Vogel, 2012, p. 2. been intensified recently: “The charm (quoted as Becker 2014a). 99. Becker, 2014a, p. 1. campaign was triggered by the growing 93. CEPS/IFW/ICPS: The Prospects of 100. Hofbauer, Hannes: Europas Schlusslicht, potential for conflict and chaos in Deep Free Trade between the EU Neues Deutschland, 13 March, 2014. the region as well as increasing and Ukraine, Brussels, 2006. 101. “Summit of Failure”, www.spiegel. competition, especially from Russia.” 94. It appears that a version in Russian de/international, 24 Nov, 2014. (Dirmoser, Dietmar: EU-Erweiterung was only available in October, 2014. 102. Verheugen zur EU-Russlandpolitik: und Sicherheit. Ein Blick zurück in die Cf. “Summit of Failure”, www.spiegel. Warum Helmut Schmidt irrt, Zukunft, FES, March 2015, p. 1) de/international, 24 Nov, 2014. Spiegel Online, 19 May, 2014. 84. Vobruba, Georg: Expansion ohne 95. Stefan Füle, Statement on the pressure 103. “Summit of Failure”, www.spiegel. Erweiterung. Die EU-Nachbarschaftspolitik exercised by Russia on countries of de/international, 24 Nov, 2014. in der Dynamik Europas, in: Osteuropa, the Eastern Partnership European 104. Ibid. 2-3/2007, pp. 7-20, p. 7. Commission, Speech 13/687, 105. Partei der Regionen: EU-Assoziierung 85. Ferrero-Waldner, Benita: “Europa 11.09.2013. For this, Füle appears to wird Millionen in der Ukraine arbeitslos als globaler Akteur – Aktuelle have availed himself of figures in the machen, RIA Novosti, 13 Nov, 2013. Schwerpunkte Europäischer Außen- und following study: Movchan, Veronika/ (German version only, no corresponding Nachbarschaftspolitik”, Bundesakademie Giucci, Ricardo: Quantitative Assessment article in English available) für Sicherheitspolitik, Berlin, 24 Jan, 2005. of Ukraine’s Regional Integration Options, 106. Ukrainischer Premier Asarow bestätigt: 86. The ENP additionally includes the Institute for Economic Research and Policy Handel mit Russland hat jetzt Vorrang, Palestinian Autonomy Authority and Consulting, Policy Paper, 05/2011. RIA Novosti, 22 Nov, 2013. (German the following 15 states: to the south: 96. European Commission: EU-Ukraine version only, no exactly corresponding Algeria, Egypt, Israel, Jordan, Lebanon, Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade article in English available) Libya, Moroco, Syria and Tunesia. To the Area, Reading Guide, http://trade. east: Armenia, Azerbaidjan, Byelarus, ec.europa.eu/doclib/docs/2013/april/ Georgia, Moldova and the Ukraine. tradoc_150981.pdf, p. 2. The timeline for 87. Wider Europe - Neighbourhood: A New tariff reductions is also worth mentioning: Framework for Relations with our Eastern “Abolishment of customs duties is almost and Southern Neighbours, Communication complete. Though there are significant from the Commission, Brussels, 11 March, differences in its rhythm, as the European 2003, COM(2003) 104 final, p. 10. Union also outlines. It is to be implemented 88. Cf. for instance: Hinnebusch, Raymond: almost immediately for industrial Europe and the Middle East: From products with only a few exceptions (e.g. Imperialism to Liberal Peace? in: Review of Ukrainian automotive industry), while European Studies, Vol. 4, No. 3, July 2012, in the agricultural sector, elimination pp. 18-31; Teti, Andrea: The EU’s First of tariffs will take place on the EU side Response to the ‘Arab Spring’: A Critical only gradually and over a period of 10 Discourse Analysis of the Partnership for years.” Becker, Joachim: Untergeordnete Democracy and Shared Prosperity, in: Integration. Das Assoziationsabkommen Mediterranean Politics, No. 3/2012, pp. zwischen der EU und Ukraine, in: 266-284; Reynaert, Vicky; Preoccupied Kurswechsel, 3/2014, pp. 76-82, p. 79. with the Market: The EU as a Promoter of 97. “Ukraine shall take the necessary ‘Shallow’ Democracy in the Mediterranean, measures in order to gradually achieve in: European Foreign Affairs Review, No. conformity with EU technical regulations 16/2011, pp. 623-637; Brand, Martin: Die and EU standardisation, metrology, Europäische Nachbarschaftspolitik – ein accreditation, conformity assessment neoliberales Projekt?, in: Utopie kreativ, procedures and the market surveillance H. 217 (November 2008), pp. 988-1006. system, and undertakes to follow the 89. Dimitrovova, Bohdana: Imperial re- principles and practices laid down in bordering of Europe: the case of the relevant EU Decisions and Regulations.”

22 3. The Ukraine as a Test Case for Germany‘s Emerging Ambitions

of „such a humiliation must not happen again!“, soon afterwards, the project „Neue Macht – Neue Verantwortung“ („New Power – New Responsibility“) was established, headed by the „Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik“ (“German Institute for International and Security Affairs”) and the „German Mar- shall Fund“.108 According to a self-descrip- tion, between November 2012 and Septem- ber 2013, about 50 „foreign and security policy experts from the Bundestag, adminis- tration, science, industry, foundations, think tanks, media and NGOs“ (p. 47) were gath- ered together. Their eponymic final report „Neue Macht – Neue Verantwortung“ (also published in English) already contained all relevant core contemplations, even identical formulations of German president Gauck‘s later speech, and has since then been the German Federal President Joachim Gauck during his speech at the Munich Security ideological basis for the new course of Ger- Conference in early February, 2014. (Source: Zwez, MSC) man foreign and security policy (cf. the box „Gauckism – Nationalism – Global Power“). At the latest since the appearances of Ger- of more fundamental differences in the two man defence minister Ursula von der Leyen, main actors‘ interests which subsequently Its starting point is the assessment that the foreign minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier, kept coming to the surface. Yet despite tight limits German activities on the global and of course in particular German presi- such differences in the details, the actors on stage were subject to in previous decades dent Joachim Gauck at the Munich Security both ends of the Atlantic are united by their no longer exist in their stricter form: „The Conference in early 2014, the new tune in goal to incorporate the Ukraine into the Bonn Republic [translator‘s note: i.e. post- the debate on future German foreign and Western sphere of influence. Even though WWII and pre-reunification West Germany] security policy has become clearly audible. Germany did not manage to prevail in all lacked both the weight and the freedom of Since then, the demands that Germany matters, and even suffered some setbacks, movement for independent relations with should actively pursue the global policy of the entire undertaking was and continues to partners beyond the European and transat- a great power have become much more be seen almost unanimously as an „ex- lantic frameworks. Today, Germany‘s new aggressive – and the country selected for emplary“ case of implementing the Gauck strength gives it new opportunities to use the first major trial run for this „Gauck doctrine, as Germany is considered to have its influence. This, too, cause for reas- doctrine“ is the Ukraine. It should be noted, „successfully“ proven itself as a leading sessing its international relationships.“ (p. though, that this new policy of Germany as a power in global politics (Chapter 3.3). 30) The report further criticises that this global power was prepared well in advance Regarding the objectives of Germany‘s opportunity has so far not been utilised by means of the project „Neue Macht – Ukraine policy and the distinctive posi- in any beneficial way: „But Germany has Neue Verantwortung“ („New Power – New tion Germany is assuming in its pursuit, an been selective and hesitant even in offer- Responsibility“). In this project, the principal openness can be observed which in some ing ideas or spearheading initiatives, at argumentation models were developed to ways is impressive and is most likely also least in relation to its economic strength, serve as guidelines for an offensive reorien- connected to the general change in the geopolitical clout, and international stand- tation of German foreign and security policy tune of the German debate: „The struggle ing. In this sense, at any rate, Germany in general, but also for concrete action for the Ukraine is one between the Russian remains a global player in waiting.“ (p. 8) relating to the Ukraine and Russia (Chapter president and the German chancellor. […] 3.1). In the latter context, not only the USA, Almost 25 years after the end of the Cold To change this is the major objective, but to but also the European Union and especially War, the matter is about who will man- be able to do so, Germany will in future also Germany had for quite some time been age to drag the former Soviet republics of „have to be clear(er) in articulating its own working towards establishing pro-Western the region into their sphere of influence. interests and values.“ (p. 44) How this is to rulers in Kiev, and once the association This is about geopolitics, about the ‚Grand be interpreted is clarified by the following agreement had been rejected in Novem- Design‘, as experts like to call it.“107 passage: „If Germany wants to preserve ber 2013, the gloves came off and action and protect its own way of life, it must work was taken as planned (Chapter 3.2). And 3.1 New Power – New Responsibility for a peaceful and rules-based world order, although the US and Germany had a shared using all legitimate means at its disposition, interest in ousting Yanukovych, one should There are specific reasons why the discus- including military force where and when not overlook the fact that already during sion process about a radical course change required […] Germany benefits like few other the Maidan protests, severe quarrels began in German foreign and security policy countries from globalization and the peace- between them about whose pet potentate gained serious momentum after Germany‘s ful, open and free world order that makes would be hoisted into the seat of power. Be- refusal in 2011 to participate in the cam- it possible. At the same time, Germany is yond this, the argument is also an indicator paign against Libya. Obviously in the spirit also especially dependent on this order

23 working well. It is therefore particularly foreign policy, because these relationships the United States will not only assume a vulnerable and susceptible to the effects of act as amplifiers: they expand the scope, leadership role less often, but will also want disturbances in the system“ (pp. 38 and 2). reach and legitimacy of German shaping to participate in fewer joint missions. Eu- power. This is especially true in relation to rope and Germany must therefore develop For such ambitious endeavours, a number of the world‘s emerging powers.“ (p. 32). formats for NATO operations that rely less countries, primarily the US, are considered on U.S. contributions. This requires greater essential partners: „On most key issues As will be elaborated below in greater detail, investment in military capabilities, and – peace and security, a rule-based global the „bonding agents“ of the Western alli- more political leadership“ (pp. 5 and 43). order, rule of law and human rights, func- ance outlined here are a major cause of the tioning markets, secure supplies of energy concrete profile the New Cold War currently Where there are „partners“ to maintain the and raw materials, the environment and on the horizon has assumed (see Chapter existing order, there are also „contenders“ climate change, or human development – a 5.5). Beyond this, it is clearly visible that the to it. Powers considered to be among the comparison of German positions with those authors of „Neue Macht – Neue Verant- latter are Russia and China, with intensify- of its proven European and transatlantic wortung“ indeed envision a new division of ing conflicts with these seen as possible: partners will show broad agreement, despite trans-Atlantic power and functions, com- „Inevitably, this will lead to competition and disparities on specific issues. The circle of bined with the claim to upgrade Germany‘s conflicts in Germany‘s relations with the these partners with influence and shap- present role as a junior partner: „Yet the new economic and political power centres ing power extendss beyond the ‚West‘ and United States – conscious of its reduced of the world: struggles about influence, and includes (in concentric rings) not just the resources – is sending clear signals that access to resources, but also about the EU member states (indispensable partners) their engagement in the world will be more architecture of the international order as and the NATO allies United States, Canada, selective in future, and that its expectations well as the validity of the norms on which it and Turkey (key partners), but countries like of partners will be correspondingly higher. is based. […] In this process, some chal- Japan, South Korea, Australia, New Zealand, This means that Europe, and Germany in lenger states could become real partners Mexico and Israel (important partners). Nur- particular, will have to take on a lot more for Germany; but it is also conceivable that turing these proven partnerships and deep- tasks and responsibilities. […] On the some will opt for confrontation.“ (p. 32/33). ening bilateral relations with other like-mind- military-operational level, however, the Euro- ed allies should be a priority for German peans will have to get used to the idea that Concerning the German preferences with regard to the European Union and its East- ern policy, the following passages, among relevance engagement others, can be found in the „Neue Macht U.S. . – Neue Verantwortung“ paper: „Economic EU . China and political integration has given Europe‘s states international clout – a clout that even Japan . Russia Iran . t Canada India n the major European nations can no longer . Israel Syria. . nm e

a i bring to bear on their own. […] Germany Turkey. Brazil

c on t will have to take the lead in this field more primary South Korea . Pakistan . North Korea . often and more decisively. [...] Germany is Mexico. . Indonesia secondary . South Africa naturally more strongly interested in the UAE Saudi Arabia . internal development of countries in the im- Qatar . Australia . Singapore . Egypt mediate EU neighbourhood, whether in the Vietnam . . New Zealand East or in the South, than in that of more . Nigeria Cuba. Venezuela . distant states. […] As a regional stabiliz- ing power, the EU must strive for stability allies challengers spoilers and good governance in Europe‘s southern and eastern neighbourhood, and direct its efforts not only at governments, but also bilateral strategic partnership divergence at civil societies. […] German foreign policy will continue to deploy the full range of Germany’s strategic relations foreign policy instruments, from diplomacy, foreign aid and cultural policy to the use Partners, contenders and spoilers in the paper Neue Macht – Neue Verantwortung, p. 31. of military force.“ (pp. 20, 35, 26 and 7). Oddly, in the text itself, disintegrating or splintered states such as „Syria, Somalia, Afghanistan or Mali“ are classified as „spoilers“, though they are not listed in the corresponding diagram. In what way the document‘s authors intend to deal with „spoilers“ can be seen in the To put it in plain language, in that perspec- following passage: „ However, where spoiler states question the international order, where tive – which to a great extent corresponds they violate basic international norms (such as the genocide prohibition or the prohibition to the practice of EU expansion policy on the use of weapons of mass destruction), where they lay claims to – or even attack – described above – first, Germany‘s power the commons or the critical infrastructure of globalization; in other words, where offers of politics ambitions can only be realised in compromise or dispute resolution are made in vain, Germany must be willing and able to use a compound EU structure; though second, military power within the framework of collective measures sanctioned by international law within it, Germany must be given the lead (or at least credibly threaten its use), in order to be able to protect these goods, norms, and part; third, expansion into the neighbour- collective interests.” (p. 16) ing regions has priority, and hegemony is

24 to be achieved there; and finally, fourth, in position to reject a compromise with Rus- demanding reforms and setting standards. realisation of these desires, a broad range sia and to insist on forcing a fundamental […] The group ‘We Are Europeans’ are an of civil and military instruments is to be decision for the European Union. „Especially interesting example of this phenomenon. employed at the governmental or civil- the German interests, although entirely This unofficial association consists of ian levels, whichever appears opportune contradictory and certainly not identical to young professionals in various disciplines in the respective concrete situation. US interests, were the driving force behind who discuss different subjects referring to an autonomous Eastern policy. It is not a co- the EU on Facebook and from time launch 3.2 Subversion and Regime incidence that the Ukraine conflict was not public enquiries and carry out actions. Change „Made in Germany“ fuelled, for example, by US plans for NATO When in 2011, the negotiations about an expansion, but by the matter of whether the EU-Ukraine association agreement got stuck The entire EU expansion process is not least Ukraine should associate with the German- and the agreement could not be signed the product of German interests enforced dominated EU, and if so, then how. The due to prevailing shortcomings in terms via the channel of Brussels. Thus, during his German-European refusal to resolve the of democracy, more and more NGOs used term as German foreign minister, Joschka matter by means of including all parties their capacities to ensure that the Ukraine Fischer expressed already in 2000: „Espe- involved, meaning also Russia, marked the would not miss such an important opportu- cially for Germany, enlargement is of top beginning of the conflict‘s escalation.“112 nity forever. Although so far, such activities national interest. […] Especially the German mostly take the form of public enquiries, economy will profit greatly from enlarge- At the same time, provisions were made to there are increasing signs that a form of ment in terms of business and employ- have the „capacity to act“ if the venture to more systematic pressure exerted on politi- ment“109 Overall, Berlin has meanwhile absorb the Ukraine should fail, as was in cal decision-makers is developing. Third and managed to secure far-reaching possibilities fact the case. For not only the US, who, as final, the EU supports Ukrainian civil society of influencing EU politics. Already in many it transpired, had invested US$ 5 bn in the with direct funding, as in this respect, many cases, when a package is labelled „Brus- Ukraine alone for „peace and democracy“ different instruments are available.“116 sels“, it actually has „Berlin“ as its contents: – viz.: to promote their interests113 – also „Nowadays, Brussels is influenced more the EU and thereby especially Germany Further, the impression imposes itself that strongly by German interests and strate- were anything but inactive. Quite funda- the EU and the bilateral donors not only gies than ever before. Mostly unnoticed by mentally, the EU naturally endeavours to influenced the agenda of Ukrainian civil the general public, Germany has conquered leave as little as possible to chance in its society, but in fact wrote it themselves: the key positions in the EU‘s institutions neighbourhood and to influence the „fates“ „This way, also projects with a political and shaped structures which even tie down of the respective countries according to its agenda can be funded in the Ukraine. The Juncker‘s self-assured Commission. Not only liking. This also and especially applies to its foreign funds have made many projects does Europe speak German nowadays, as projects in the Ukraine which demonstrate possible which otherwise could not have the German Christian Democratic party‘s rather colourfully that imperialist policies been realised. However, they have also in a general secretary proclaimed begin a long time before any gunboats are certain sense distorted the development of in 2011. Meanwhile, it even thinks and acts sent. In this, the aforementioned „Euro- Ukrainian civil society. Numerous observ- in the German way, according to models and pean Neighbourhood Instrument“ is one ers indicate that over time, many NGOs rules coined in Germany. […] On the whole, aspect which played an important part: funded by foreign sources have increas- the German government has demonstrated between 2007 and 2013, nearly EUR 1 bn ingly oriented themselves towards their great skill in securing a central role in the were pumped into the country this way. donors and are losing their feedback from EU‘s institutions for itself. The old complaint Most of this sum was intended to „buff up“ Ukrainian society. Also, some NGOs were about a ‚pro-French‘ bias in Brussels no the Ukrainian administration for imple- formed mainly to gain access to Western longer applies; the German personnel policy mentation of the association agreement funding. In the long run, an NGO élite is has been extremely successful. Today, near- in national legislation and to build up an forming which is focused on the capital ly all strategically important positions are apparatus of pro-European civil servants.114 [i.e. Kiev] and develops an agenda that to staffed with Germans, which understandably a great extent is isolated from the range of does not meet with great enthusiasm every- Additionally, the EU transferred hundreds problems in other parts of the country.“117 where. The British ‚Economist‘ poked fun at of millions to – pro-Western – civil society the ‚Teutonic Union‘, and the French ‚Libéra- groups, with further, even larger sums One relevant group of actors in this context tion‘ accused Merkel of determining the being allocated bilaterally by individual EU are the foundations of the respective outcome of the ‚auditions‘ on her own.“110 member countries.115 An article in Ukraine- political parties. In the Ukraine, it is the Analysen describing the various „patterns of German Christian Democrats‘ „Konrad To put things a little hyperbolically: in Brus- interaction“ between the EU and Ukrainian Adenauer Foundation“ whose ventures sels, hardly a single stone tips over without civil society reveals how comprehensively paint a particularly colourful picture. Thus the German government having a say in it. Ukrainian domestic politics can (and most as early as 2010, the head of its Kiev office, This becomes evident also and in particular likely is supposed to) be influenced by Nico Lange, was imprisoned by order of the in the Spiegel‘s detailed documentation means of such funding: „First, the EU has Ukrainian government, supposedly due to on the negotiation process regarding the involved representatives of Ukrainian civil subversive activities. He was released only Ukraine association agreement, in which society in a dialogue. […] Second, to Ukrain- after top German government agencies Germany was one of the prime movers, pos- ian civil society, the EU serves as a point intervened. In the report the Frankfurter sibly even the most relevant one.111 Thus, as of orientation and reference framework. Allgemeine Zeitung published at the time, already described, it was mainly Germany‘s It implicitly strengthens civil society by the background to this event is described

25 Gauckism – Nationalism – Global Power

Only shortly after German President Joa- chim Gauck had taken office, he attracted rather negative attention with his address during his first official visit with the Bun- deswehr (German armed forces) on 12 June, 2012. The newspaper Die Zeit publis- hed the following comment: „The speech the Bundeswehr has been waiting for“. Especially the nationalist-chauvinist tone the president adopted came as a shock: „There are some who confuse freedom with thoughtlessness, indifference or hedonism. […] Such willingness to commit oneself has become rare in times where everyone must assume responsibility for themselves – and too many people think that this is already enough resonsibility to bear. Here, in the Bundeswehr, I meet people everywhere who are willing to commit themselves to something – so to say, I meet ‚courage citizens in uniform‘! […] Your slogan ‚Wir. Dienen. Deutschland.‘ (‚We. Serve. Ger- many.‘) is exactly to the point [...]. It fits, not just where ‚serving‘ is concerned. It sheds a light on a kind of patriotism which Protest during the 2014 Munich Security Conference. The German caption reads: „Freedom – based loosely on the words of Johannes for the Bundeswehr“, i.e. the German armed forces. Source: Wolfgang Smuda Rau – is manifest in the fact that one loves one‘s home country without the need to be contemptuous of the home countries of executive department in charge of planning it can even be necessary to send in the others.“ and speeches. troops. […] For few other countries have such close links with the rest of the world Beyond this, Gauck‘s speech on German This explains the fact that the president‘s as Germany does. Germany has thus bene- Unity Day on 03 October, 2013 made clear much-noticed speech at the Munich fited especially from the open global order. how close his views are to the central Secirity Conference in early 2014 includes And it’s vulnerable to any disruptions to the ideas of the project „Neue Macht – Neue nearly all central ideas of Neue Macht – system. For this reason, the consequences Verantwortung“ („New Power – New Neue Verantwortung: „This means that of inaction can be just as serious, if not Responsibility“) and the German élites‘ simply repeating familiar mantras won’t be worse than the consequences of taking power ambitions expressed in them. This enough in future! For the key question is: action. […] I have to admit that while there is not surprising, as also regarding staff, has Germany already adequately recognis- are genuine pacifists in Germany, there are there was a direct connection between the ed the new threats and the changes in the also people who use Germany’s guilt for German president and the „Responsibility“ structure of the international order? Has its past as a shield for laziness or a desire project. Thus, Thomas Kleine-Brockhoff, it reacted commensurate with its weight? to disengage from the world. […] Restraint director of the German Marshall Fund, was […] In my opinion, Germany should make can thus be taken too far if people start intensely involved in Neue Macht – Neue a more substantial contribution, and it making special rules for themselves. Whe- Verantwortung, before in summer, 2013, should make it earlier and more decisively never that happens, I will criticise it.“ Joachim Gauck appointed him head of his if it is to be a good partner. […] Sometimes as follows: „Nico Lange, head of the office Democratic parties] are also part of.“118 ing a Christian-conservative party in the of Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung in the Ukraine, Ukraine‘“119 According to the Spiegel, the was unexpectedly arrested at Kiev‘s Boryspil The EPP and its member, the German CDU, foundation supposedly organised „training airport. […] Lange is a prominent critic of feel especially close to former boxing world units for Udar parlamentarians and their the new Ukrainian government under Rus- champion ‘s party „Udar“ staff members“120 Klitschko personally sia-friendly president Yanukovych. He had („Punch“), which reportedly was initiated by thanked the Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung, […] attempted to bring the splintered West- the „Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung“: „Because saying that it had been „[...] of great help for ern-oriented opposition together – a natural of his success, the Konrad-Adenauer- his developing [...] party. […] We had many task for the Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung, as Stiftung noticed him; as CDU politician questions and found answers here.“121 several parties in that spectrum […] have Werner Jostmeier reports, the foundation ties as observers to the European Popular with close ties to the CDU ‚delegated‘ Also the EPP faction in the European Parlia- Party (EPP), which the German Union parties Klitschko quite some time ago ‚to provide ment has „rendered outstanding services“ [translator‘s note: the two German Christian his support in launching and establish- to Udar, as, once again, reported by the

26 Spiegel: „Klitschko‘s young party ‚Udar‘ has opponent to Russia-oriented Yanukovych protests and drive them in the desired pro- recently become an observing member of – and in the end to sign the agreement with European direction (while at the same time the family of conservative parties, EPP. EPP the Europeans after all. To use the term completely ignoring and crowding out any offices in Brussels and Budapest train Udar ‚regime change‘ here might be too drastic, left-wing actors). The three-way alliance that personnel for parliamentary work, provide but it‘s a little about that, too: Merkel‘s CDU was quickly forged and then soon assumed support in building up a nation-wide party and the family of European conservative leadership of the protests included, besides structure.“122 While in Germany, Klitschko parties EPP have chosen Klitschko to soften fascist „Svoboda“ and (at that time) pro-US was circulated as the „torch-bearer of up the Ukrainian ‚No!‘ from the inside. He is „Batkyvshchina“, also the „Udar“ party. democratic opposition“, e.g. at the Munich supposed to unite and lead the opposition, When the protests kept escalating further Security Conference in early 2014123, at in the streets, in parliament and finally in (see Chapter 4.1), on 21 February 2014, an the same time, a succession of Western the 2015 presidential elections. ‚Klitschko agreement was made between Yanukovych politicians travelled to the Ukraine to noisily is our man‘, they say in top EPP circles. ‚he and the three opposition representatives express their solidarity with the protests. has a clearly European agenda‘ – and Mer- Klitschko, Yatsenyuk und Tyahnibok which One of these, among many others from kel still has a score to settle with Putin.“126 was intended to guarantee de-escalation. To Germany, was Elmar Brok (CDU/EPP), add some more substance to that agree- the influential chairman of the European 3.3 Tensions Within the Western ment, it was also signed by the foreign Parliament‘s Foreign Affairs Committee. He Camp and German Interests ministers of Germany (Steinmeier), France had praised Klitschko as an „extraordinarily (Fabius) and Poland (Sikorski). Its principal clever conversation partner with increas- When in November 2013, the Yanukovych item was formation of a government of ing political experience who clearly holds administration decided to reject the as- national unity as well as early presidential Western values dear“.124 Already at the sociation agreement, the breeding ground elections at the latest by December 2014. time the protests were still in full spate, for the Maidan protests which flared up This schedule for a „regulated“ power he quite candidly poured out his concrete immediately afterwards had thus been changeover was immediately celebrated as ideas on how the power shift in the Ukraine prepared at many different levels. There a success of German crisis diplomacy which should take place: „We are experiencing were certainly many good reasons to take – so it seemed – had prevailed against the demonstrations by the opposition, as it also to the streets against the highly corrupt more aggressive approach favoured by the happened already in the Orange Revolution Yanukovych government, but those prepara- US. Along these lines, Klaus-Dieter Frank- in 2004. The citizens are protesting against tions made it possible to swiftly hijack the enberger wrote in Frankfurter Allgemeine the Yanukovych government‘s manipula- tions and want to prevent the European Russia as a Justification for Arms Build-Up Union‘s offer of an association and free trade agreement from being rejected Currently, by referring to Russia, it is arms (in Europe and in the US)“ (German- against their will. […] The Ukraine requires possible to justify almost any armaments Foreign-Policy.com, 13 May, 2015). freedom, constitutionality and competitive- project, even the most whacky ones. Along ness. The president lacks the courage for these lines, already in April 2014, in refer- Quite generally, the reference to Russia this, he shies away from confronting Russia. ring to the „Russian menace“, Rainer Ar- tends to be extremely „profitable“ when […] The best service he could render his nold, defence expert of the German social made in connection with a demand to country would be to clear the way for new democrats, demanded to maintain a larger substantially increase arms spending. It elections. […] Vitali Klitschko has what it battle tank contingent (Spiegel Online, should be noted, though, that the German takes to become president of the Ukraine in 06 April, 2014). His „wish“ was fulfilled in military budget has already been raised the next elections, at the latest in 2015.“125 May, 2015: in future, not 225 as originally from EUR 23.18 bn (converted) in 2000 to planned, but 325 Leopard MBTs will be approx. EUR 33 bn in 2015. Even adjusted It is obvious that with his refusal to sign the at the ready to deter Russia. As if that for inflation, this is an increase of nearly EU association agreement, which had been was not enough, just before the decision, 25%! And this even though a – binding promoted especially by the German side, Ya- Hans Rühle, former head of the defence – agreement in June 2010 had been to nukovych had made powerful enemies who ministry‘s planning commission piped up, reduce the budget to EUR 27.6 bn. When from then on worked towards having him claiming that the Leopard tanks should presenting the outline for budget planning ousted. Directly after the agreement had be supplied with uranium ammunition to on 18 February, 2015, finance minister been rejected, the Spiegel wrote in shock- ensure sufficient firepower (Die Welt, 26 Wolfgang Schäuble even announced a fur- ing candour about the goals of Germany‘s April, 2015). But the nuclear war games go ther increase in his paper. According to his Ukraine policy: „‘The door to the Ukraine re- well beyond such plans, as statements by announcements, the 2016 defence budget mains open‘, Merkel repeatedly emphasised Karl-Heinz Kamp, director of the Bunde- is to rise to EUR 34.2 bin, to 34.74 bn the after the debacle. One is still ready to talk, sakademie für Sicherheitspolitik (Federal following year, and to 34.8 bn in 2018, to she confirmed. That sounded like making Academy for Security Policy), reveal: „As then amount to 35 bn for 2019. One of a great effort to save face, as one usually the conflict with Russia is not a mere spell the reasons given in the budget proposal does after a defeat. But it also means: the of bad weather, but a fundamental climate outline is the conflict with Russia, requir- affair isn‘t over yet. And before the next change, the overall package of deter- ing „provision of additional funding for round, the Chancellor wants to bring an- rence must be placed in a new context.“ greater NATO involvement and reinforce- other player into the match: Vitali Klitschko. According to him, this refers to conven- ment in the area of defence investments.“ The six-foot-seven professional boxer is sup- tional capacities but also to „the nuclear (Augengeradeaus, 17 March, 2015) posed to be launched as the pro-European

27 Zeitung under the title „Deutschland hat Vitali Klitschko, lovingly breast-fed and Bloc into the Berlin-dominated European Verantwortung übernommen“ („Germany installed with lots of German money and Union; in achieving this, there is an obvi- has assumed responsibility“): „Without know-how, to assume any kind of promi- ous b) preparedness to decidedly act even the persistent efforts at persuasion from nent position: „Those in charge in the US against central Russian interests, which the foreign ministers of Germany, France did not appear to be overjoyed by the idea includes the application of an uncompro- and Poland, the Ukrainian leaders and that Klitschko might become deputy prime mising subversion policy; while this is c) the opposition are unlikely to have come minister. ‚The Klitschko piece is obviously subject to a certain degree of qualification, to an agreement. That is something even the complicated electron here‘, Pyatt [the as due to the considerable trade volume the Americans should take note of.“127 US ambassador in the Ukraine] can be with Russia, total escalation is undesirable. However, it seems that there were still a few heard. The world boxing champion should The private information service Strategic spokes at hand for the wheel of EU diplo- not assume office, but ‚do his political Forecast thus writes: „The German strategy macy, mainly in the USA and in the Ukraine homework‘. Nuland also expresses her in itself is contradictory. In the Ukraine, itself. To date it is still not possible to prove scepticism regarding Klitschko‘s participa- at an early stage, Germany supported the this without doubt, but there are quite a tion in the government: ‚I don‘t think it‘s demonstrations which led to the current number of indicators that Washington used necessary, I don‘t think it‘s a good idea.‘“130 government. Though they did not take the its considerable influence on the opposition Russian and American reaction into ac- parties to get this compromise dumped. How fierce the quarrel between Germany count, and they don‘t want to participate in Thus, the ticker of German news programme and the US was in this matter is demon- a military reaction to Russia. At the same Tagesschau on 21 February at 21 hrs 53 strated by a second phone talk, tapped into time, Germany does not want to slacken min reported: „There were many signs that on 31 January, 2014 and also posted on the its support of the government in Kiev.“133 a peaceful solution would be found in the Web. There, Deputy Secretary General for Ukraine – but the agreement between the Political Affairs of the European External Quite obviously, the US pursue the same government and the opposition is not to the Action Service, Helga Schmid, rather hotly objectives in relation to items a) and b), liking of the masses on Maidan. They keep complains about the American „allies“ to yet at the same time place their stakes on demanding the president‘s resignation – and the EU‘s ambassador to the Ukraine, Jan total escalation, which the German side keep threatening violence.“128 Faced with Tombinski: „I just wanted to tell you one would rather prefer to prevent. In any case, the announcement that upon expiry of an thing in confidence. The Americans are the quarrels in the period before the coup ultimatum, the parliament building would be walking about a bit saying that we‘re too ended with a win on points for the US. stormed, Yanukovych fled in the same night, soft regarding sanctions. […] What annoys After more than 70 members of the „Party first to and then out of the country. me a lot is that the Americans are walking of Regions“, the ruling party at the time, We can thus establish that Germany was about pillorying the EU saying that we‘re terminated their membership, the party pursuing an active policy in the Ukraine to too soft. […] I just want to tell you that, so joined the opposition, and on 22 February, assert its own interests and in this even that maybe you‘ll talk with the American am- 2014, the parliament declared Yanuko- went so far as to support a violent coup bassador and tell him we‘re not soft at all. vych deposed. Immediately, a „transitional which led to a substantial participation of […] It annoys me if the press now reports government“ was formed, installing Alek- fascist forces in the „transitional govern- the EU is not on the side of freedom. […] sandr Turchinov as interim president on 23 ment“ (see the box „The Fascist Revolu- It‘s not about a race here, but it‘s really February and as prime tion“). What also became abundantly clear unfair if they spread that about here.“131 minister on 26 February, two representa- is that in spite of a great congruence of The causes of these tensions are however tives of Tymoshenko‘s party, which at the interests between Germany and the US, not to be found in the fact alone that both time was still pro-US. Forces of the radical there are also obvious differences. The sides intend to grab as big a piece of the right were also „rewarded“ with positions central matter in this was whether in Ukrainian cake as possible. US concerns in the new cabinet for their services – the future a pro-US (Tymoshenko or someone about a German pet potentate actually do coup would likely not have been possible in her party) or a pro-German (Klitschko) have a certain material basis – at least from without their support – while Klitschko‘s president would be in charge. How roughly their decidedly hostile position towards party Udar was ignored completely: things were handled behind the scenes Russia. Washington is worried that German „Tymoshenko‘s party is in control, and the became evident especially from the business contacts to Russia, which to some nationalists have also secured important wire-tapped „Fuck the EU“ phone conver- extent are rather close, may prevent Berlin posts for themselves. Klitschko‘s party is sation posted on the Web, featuring US from following an even harder line towards not represented in the government“, Zeit Assistant Secretary of State for European Moscow as parts of German industry may Online summarised the hostile takeover.134 Affairs, Victoria Nuland: „An American have a moderating influence.132 This also Even if these references are no evidence, top diplomat makes derogatory remarks became manifest in the following period, they are nevertheless strong indicators about Brussels. The Chancellor calls this when, for instance, in the matter of pos- who the powers behind the rejection of the absolutely unacceptable – the rift between sible arms supplies, there were distinct compromise reached on 21 February 2014 Berlin and Washington is growing.129 differences to be found between the US were. While Germany, France and even Though what really annoyed the German position and the – slightly – more moder- Poland had apparently favoured an or- side about the phone conversation was ate attitude of the German government. dered transition of power, the US and their not the slightly undiplomatic choice of The constellation of German interests to be Ukrainian allies intended to seize control words, but the fact that it clearly revealed derived from these facts thus consists of a) immediately – and the composition of the the US to have absolutely no intention of the endeavour to peripherally incorporate „interim government“ is a more than obvi- permitting former boxing world champion maximally large parts of the former Eastern ous sign as to who prevailed in this matter.

28 Such a blemish on its achievements not- withstanding, Germany continues to fight in the front line – literally – by diplomatic, but also economic and even military means. Faced with such a scenario, it is – unfortu- nately – comprehensible that the „Ukrain- ian operation“ is on the whole assessed as an extremely „successful“ field test for the emerging German ambitions to become a global power: „Especially the Ukraine crisis 107. Blome, Nikolaus et al.: Ein Profi für ensured that Gauck‘s speech on 31 Janu- Runde zwei, Der Spiegel 50/2013. ary, 2014 was perceived not as an isolated 108. New Power - New Responsibility. Elements occurrence, but as the conceptual founda- of a German foreign and security policy for tion to a new approach towards politics. a changing world, SWP/GMF, September […] At the latest since the EU summit in 2013. Unless indicated otherwise, the Vilnius in late November, 2013, Berlin in page numbers in this chapter refer to close coordination with the EU has played the English version of this document. a lead part in mediating between Russia, For further details on this paper, also the Ukraine and the other countries of the cf. Deppe, Frank: Imperialer Realismus: eastern partnership.“135 No less satisfied, Deutsche Außenpolitik: Führungsmacht in the „Reader Sicherheitspolitik“ of the Ger- „Neuer Verantwortung“, , 2014. man defence ministry recognises: „The lead 109. Fischer, Joschka: Vom Staatenverbund role among the Western powers regarding zur Föderation – Gedanken über sanction policy and diplomatic mediation die Finalität der europäischen is assumed by the European NATO allies, Integration, speech on 12 May, 2000 with Germany leading the way. The sub- at Humboldt-Universität in Berlin. stantial changes in the West-East power 110. Bonse, Eric: Europa tickt deutsch, in: structure are most clearly manifest in the Blätter für deutsche und internationale fact that a united Germany has developed Politik, 3/2015, pp. 5-8. from being the entity most severely affected 111. “Summit of Failure”, www.spiegel. by the East-West conflict, and a definite de/international, 24 Nov, 2014. war theatre in case of a military escalation 112. Kronauer, Jörg: Die widersprüchlichen between the Warsaw Pact and NATO, into Imperative der deutschen Ostpolitik, in: one of the principal actors in the current Strutynski, Peter (Ed.): Spiel mit dem Feuer. crisis between Russia and NATO.“136 Die Ukraine, Russland und der Westen, Cologne, 2014, pp. 137- 152, p. 138. 113. “At the ‘International Business Conference at Ukraine’ in Washington, she [Nuland] had however said herself on 13 December, 2013: ‘Since the declaration of Ukrainian independence in 1991, the United States have supported the Ukrainians in the development of democratic institutions and skills, in promoting civil society and a good form of government – all that is necessary to achieve the objectives of Ukraine’s European aspirations. We have invested more than 5 billion dollars to help Ukraine to achieve these and other goals.’” (Rude, Matthias: Die Geister, die sie rufen, Hintergrund, 25 Feb, 2014; quote by Victoria Nuland rendered in the original English wording here) 114. European Neighbourhood and Partnership Instrument: Ukraine, National Indicative Programme 2011-2013, URL: http:// ec.europa.eu/world/enp/pdf/ country/2011_enpi_nip_ukraine_en.pdf 115. “Though the largest part of support funding comes from individual member states. These funds complement the

29 EU programmes and are often easier to Kompromiss, Tagesschau online, handle, especially when the respective 21 Feb, 2014 (21:53 hrs). states’ embassies coordinate their 129. Süddeutsche Zeitung, 08 Feb, 2014. allocation themselves directly inside the 130. Europa-Beauftragte der USA: “Fuck the country. The most active supporters of EU”, Focus online, 06 Feb, 2014. Ukrainian organisations are Sweden, 131. http://www.youtube.com/ Germany, the Netherlands, the UK, watch?v=tdCVHRKL-y0 Poland and Czechia” (Solonenko, 132. Concerning sanctions, important Iryna: Eher Partner als Geber – die EU representatives of German industry keep und die ukrainische Zivilgesellschaft, poignantly speaking out against them. in: Ukraine-Analysen, No. 114, 12 Thus, German-Foreign-Policy.com (Keine March, 2013, pp. 6-8, p. 7). Champagnerstimmung mehr, 18 March, 116. Ibid., p. 7. 2014) quotes the Ost-Ausschuss der 117. Stewart, Susan: Zivilgesellschaft Deutschen Wirtschaft (Eastern Committee in der Ukraine: Struktur, Umfeld of German Industry): “if now a spiral of und Entwicklungstendenzen, reciprocal economic sanctions is set in: Ukraine-Analysen, No. 114, in motion, the European economy is March, 2013, pp. 2-5, p. 4. threatened with long-lasting damage”. 118. Schuller, Konrad: Inszenierung eines , the German government’s Missverständnisses, Frankfurter Russia coordinator, also points out the Allgemeine Zeitung, 14 July, 2010. possible effects of sanctions: “It is not 119. Protestbündnis für Europa, German- by chance that the EU has not yet agreed Foreign-Policy.com, 26 Nov, 2013. on concrete measures. There will have to According to the head of the Konrad- be a process of coordination. One thing Adenauer-Stiftung in the Ukraine, as is clear: a country such as Germany will quoted in the German news programme also hurt itself by agreeing to economic Tagesschau (“Klitschkos internationale sanctions. 6,200 German enterprises Verbindungen”, 20 Dec, 2013), the are active in Russia. We have 20 billion matter happened the other way around: euros of direct investments in Russia, the “In 2006, when Klitschko was a leading trade volume in 2013 amounted to 76 member of the political movement billion euros. At least 300,000 jobs are ‘Pora’, first contact to the CDU-affiliated dependent on these figures. And there Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung (KAS) was is the mutual dependence in the energy made, says the head of the foundation’s sector.” (“Teile der Ukraine sichern”, office in Kiev, Gabriele Baumann. When Das Parlament, 17 March, 2014) three years ago, the opposition politician 133. Rippert, Ulrich: Ukraine-Krise: Linkspartei founded the party Udar (Punch), he stellt sich hinter Merkel, World Socialist asked the KAS for help: ‘Vitali Klitschko Web Site, 11 Feb, 2015. The original approached us. He requested informal Stratfor quote is obviously in English, but contacts to the CDU and the European is rendered here as a back-translation Popular Party as well as for support with of the author’s quote provided in seminars and training programmes’.” German. So there may be small 120. Ost-West-Konflikt um die Ukraine: differences in the exact wording here. Merkel kämpft für Klitschko, 134. Jazenjuks Kamikaze-Kabinett, Spiegel online, 08 Dec, 2014. Zeit Online, 27 Feb, 2014. 121. Protestbündnis für Europa, German- 135. Rinke, Andreas: Raus ins Rampenlicht, Foreign-Policy.com, 26 Nov, 2013. in: Internationale Politik 4, July/ 122. Blome et al.: Ein Profi für Runde August, 2014, pp. 8-13, p. 13. Also zwei, Der Spiegel, 50/2013. cf. Kronauer, Jörg: Entschlossene 123. Ehlers, Kai: Globaler Maidan? Weltpolitik, junge Welt, 26 Feb, 2014 Liste häufig gestellter Fragen, in: (quoted as Kronauer 2014a): “’The Strutynski, 2014, pp. 80-97, p. 83. Ukraine has demonstrated what German 124. Klitschkos internationale Verbindungen, diplomacy can achieve’, the Tagesspiegel Tagesschau online, 20 Dec, 2013. rejoices. And: ‘Finally one gets an 125. Rhein-Neckar-Zeitung, 02 Dec, 2013. idea of what the coalition government 126. Blome et al., 2013. means when it speaks of a ‘more active 127. Frankenberger, Klaus-Dieter: role for Germany in the world.’” Deutschland hat Verantwortung 136. Hellmann, Günther: Ein neuer Kalter übernommen, Frankfurter Allgemeine Krieg? Russland, die NATO und der Zeitung, 22 Feb, 2014. Regionalkonflikt in der Ukraine, Reader 128. Ukraine: Der Maidan sagt Nein zum Sicherheitspolitik, Issue 3/2015.

30 4. The Ukraine in a War on Multiple Fronts

Completely ignoring the fact that the under- 4.1 From Protest to Coup After the protests had tailed off perceptibly standable primary motivation for the Maidan for some time, for instance with calls for protests was to get rid of the clique of oli- Even though the so-called Maidan pro- a general strike having very little effect, garchs who have been looting and exploiting tests began directly after the EU-Ukraine in Lauterbach‘s assessment, they entered the Ukraine for many years, the movement association agreement had been rejected, into a new phase from 19 January, 2014, was quickly hijacked by pro-Western and there are many indicators that their cause when matters escalated violently, initiated fascist groups to whom the original goals of and origin are in a completely different by agents of „Praviy Sektor“, or „Right the protests were of very little concern. This domain: „The actual point of origin of the Sector“. The violent altercations reached led to a coup brought about by the threat Maidan movement was the calamitous their peak from 18 February, 2014, when of violence, launching an illegal interim social, economic and political situation numerous people on both sides were killed, government into power in which forces of in the Ukraine“137 So besides the decid- shot by snipers. Although in the West, to the radical right assumed a relevant role edly anti-Russian and pro-European thrust, the present day this escalation is blamed (Chapter 4.1). The scramble between the the demands for abolishment of oligarch exclusively on the Yanukovych government, US and Germany about who would establish rule and improvement of living conditions there are a number of indicators that at their „own“ functionary, which could already initially were indeed important elements. least part of the victims are to be attributed be observed when the „interim government“ to actions by the opposition forces – and was formed, subsequently continued during However, leftist or trade union factors were among them likely by „Praviy Sektor“ (see the „regulated“ seizure of power by means quickly and rigorously marginalised. Thus the box „Controversy Over Fatal Shots“). of elections. In this, Germany was able to an activist of -wing group „Borotba“ gain ground once more when Poroshenko is quoted as follows: „When the Maidan As already described, this escalation was and Klitschko formed an alliance. There is protests began, some members of our followed by Yanukovych‘s overthrow and no doubt whatsoever, though, that these group tried to also address social matters the establishment of a transitional govern- two camps (and their respective Western there. […] Our people were in the streets ment. The coup was thus more or less sponsors) share the goal of swift „Western together with trade unions, handing out complete, for that it was a coup is relatively integration“ – and for this reason, directly flyers, but then the speaker on the main obvious: it is rather likely that the required after they assumed power, preparations in stage called out to attack the info stand, parliamentary majority to depose Yanuko- that direction were started (Chapter 4.2). several of our members were beaten up, the vych would not have been found, therefore Alongside this development, the situation in tent was wrecked. After that, we stopped the legal procedure was simply evaded: the Ukraine itself as well as in the relations trying to participate in the Maidan protests. „How does such an impeachment proce- between Russia and the West escalated […] Later, the liberal and right-wing parties dure work? According to Article 111 of the only a short time after the coup government brought the protests under their control, if Ukrainian Constitution, initially a two-thirds had been installed. In violation of inter- you wanted to take part, you had to submit parliamentary majority is required to begin national law, Russia incorporated Crimea to their objectives. They obviously wanted impeachment proceedings. Only then can and continues to support the pro-Russian to bring about an escalation. Seeing the the statutory investigation commission forces in Ukraine‘s eastern parts, while way things were developing, we began begin its work, which for further examina- the West is providing massive support to to organise anti-war rallies instead.“138 tion also includes nomination of a special the government in Kiev (Chapter 4.3). In prosecutor and an investigator, as the US extreme contrast to the original demands of At the latest from the time the protests service [Stratfor] points out. The commis- the Maidan protests, the oligarchs‘ rule was were hijacked by the three-way alliance sion‘s conclusions and proposals are then even reinforced – merely a few protago- of Batkyvshchina („Fatherland“), Svoboda forwarded to the parliament, where this nists were replaced. Further, the country („Freedom“) and Udar („Punch“) in early time around, even a three-quarters majority was swamped in IMF austerity measures December, 2013, the nature of the protest is required. This overall decision must then which primarily affect the poorest levels changed fundamentally, as Reinhard Lauter- be approved by the Ukraine‘s constitutional of the population. In keeping with this line, bach, expert on eastern Europe, describes: court as conforming to the constitution.“140 the suppression of any social protests „Once Maidan had been taken over by the is quite openly in preparation – and this parliamentary opposition, it changed in It is actually understandable therefore that applies to the entire Ukraine (Chapter three ways. First, it grew noticeably larger, Russia continues to call the events as they 4.4). And finally, even within the camp of because each of these three parties now took place an illegal coup d‘état. How- the „victorious“, conflicts keep flaring up, erected their own tent camps and staffed ever, this by no means prevented Western partly of a serious nature (Chapter 4.5). them with their own personnel. […] Second: countries from immediately recognising the Maidan turned international, with foreign „transitional government“. The participa- This means that in the Ukraine, there are in politicians […] paying their respects to the tion of substantial fascist forces did not fact three wars of varying intensity taking demonstrators and thereby taking sides in appear to be any kind of an obstacle, either. place: a fierce military one between the the Ukrainian internal power struggle. […] Even former EU enlargement commis- government forces and the insurgents in the And third: Maidan was professionalised. sioner Günter Verheugen commented on east (and by proxy between their respective The activists who held out continually in the the events in the following words: „What foreign supporters); the one between the tents were either regional followers of the makes the current situation so difficult and new rulers and the still-destitute popula- opposition parties […] or simply unemployed also makes talks [with Russia] so difficult tion; and lastly the one among the quar- people who had been hired for a daily also has its cause in Kiev itself, and that is reling parties that instigated the coup. fee plus food and accommodation.“139 the fact that a taboo has been broken in a fatal manner, and we are even applauding

31 Maidan: Controversy Over Fatal Shots

To the present day, the Western side puts the hotel ‚Ukraina‘, which was located in the blame for the many people who in their back. […] That hotel, where numer- February, 2014 died from sniper attacks, ous media representatives were staying, exclusively on the Yanukovych govern- on that day was firmly in the hands of the ment, which at the time was still in office. opposition.“ (Monitor, 10 April, 2014) First doubts that the official version On 12 February, 2015, the BBC published was true came after a leaked telephone an article in which an anonymous par- conversation between Estonia‘s foreign ticipant in the Maidan protests the BBC minister Urmas Paet and the EU High correspondent refers to as „a man we will Representative for Foreign Affairs at the call Sergei“ is quoted: „Sergei says he had time, Catherine Ashton in March, 2014. been a regular protester on the Maidan for On the phone, Paet makes critical remarks more than a month. The 19th, a Wednes- on how the new Ukrainian government day, had been quieter, but in the evening, was showing no interest in finding the Sergei says, he was put in contact with truth from investigations into who fired the a man who offered him two guns: one a lethal shots during the protests in Kiev. The 12-gauge shotgun, the other a hunting rifle, reason for such reluctance, according to a Saiga that fired high-velocity rounds. He Spiegel, was that there are ever more signs chose the latter, he says, and stashed it in that the ones who hired the sniper murder- the Post Office building. When the shoot- ers were „not Yanukovych, but someone ing started early on the morning of the among the new coalition“. (Spiegel Online, 20th, Sergei says, he was escorted to the 05 March, 2014). Approximately one year Conservatory, and spent some 20 minutes later, The Council of Europe presented a before 07:00 firing on police, alongside report also severely criticising the new a second gunman. ‚I was shooting down- Maidan protests. Source: Flickr/Mstyslav rulers‘ „investigative fervour“: „to little, wards at their feet‘. ‚Of course, I could Chernov to slow and not independent: The Council have hit them in the arm or anywhere. of Europe accuses Ukrainian civil serv- But I didn‘t shoot to kill.‘“, he stated. Maidan opposition, its involvement in the ants of severely dragging their feet in Maidan government selection and policy investigations on the numerous victims Further, Canadian-Ukrainian politologist decisions, and its past record of support- on Maidan a year ago. […] During the Ivan Katchanovski of Ottawa University, ing or organizing regime change in other three-month demonstrations, there had in an extensive analysis of the available countries, additional research is needed been ‚no true attempt‘ to clear up the evidence material, made the following find- to examine if there was any involvement incidents, according to a report submitted ings: „This study puts ‚‘ and the of the US government in the violent by three experts appointed by the Euro- violent conflict in Ukraine into a new per- overthrow of the Ukrainian government.“ pean Council.“ (Die Zeit, 31 March, 2015) spective. […] The various kinds of evidence (Ivan Katchanovski, The „Snipers‘ Mas- […] indicate that […] far right organizations, sacre on the Maidan in Ukraine, University Further concrete indications that not all such as the and Svoboda, of Ottawa, September 2015, p. 64) of the sniper victims were shot by gov- and oligarchic parties, such as Father- ernment units were provided by a report land, were directly or indirectly involved There is certainly no absolute evidence. by Monitor , basing its report on some in various capacities in this massacre of But there is an abundance of indications „high-ranking member of the investigation the protesters and the police. This study which give rise to doubts about the official team“, as well as on wire-tapped radio also provides a rational explanation for the interpretation. This is all the more criti- communications and video analysis: „It failure of the government investigation to cal because the 2013/2014 events were can also be seen in videos that the op- find and prosecute those directly involved used as a principal justification for chasing position forces on Institutska Street were in this mass killing and for falsification of former president Yanukovych out of the being shot not only from the direction of the investigation. […] Because of various country upon the threat of violence. the government buildings, but also from evidence of US government backing of the this, a taboo was broken by allowing, for by not being included in the transitional her „weaknesses“: „Things sometimes the first time in this century, people with a government, they were far from throwing in happen really quickly. For years, we had völkisch ideology, real fascists, to be part of the towel. The former world boxing cham- to listen to the German mainstream media a government, and that is a step too far.“141 pion thus soon announced his intention trumpet about how Yuliya Tymoshenko, to stand in the early presidential elec- imprisoned Ukrainian opposition politician, 4.2 Consensus on Western Integration tions on 25 May 2014, as also did Yuliya is an innocent angel, but as soon as she – While Power Struggle Continues Tymoshenko. It has been known for quite is released, we hear the opposite. Critics some time that Tymoshenko is highly cor- accuse her of being involved in ‚dubious Although Vitali Klitschko and his German rupt, but only in the course of the conflict deals‘ and consider her to be ‚opportunistic supporters had suffered a temporary defeat with the US did the German media discover and unscrupulous‘, the [German TV channel]

32 Ukraine: Fascist Revolution

Already what can be found on Wikipedia1 about Svoboda, one of the three parties dominating the Maidan protests, is suf- ficient to clarify what kind of an organisa- tion Oleh Tyahnibok‘s party is: „In the same month [December 2012], a visit by elected representatives of Svoboda to the NPD2 faction in the state parliament of Saxony took place. […] In July, 2013, 30 members of the Israeli Knesset signed an open letter addressed to the Presi- dent of the European Parliament, Martin Schulz […]. In it, they warned against the party‘s anti-semitism and russophobia and criticised that the two largest opposi- tion parties in the Ukraine were collabo- rating with it. […] In August, 2013, the German government declared upon an enquiry from the faction of the party Die Linke that Svoboda is rated a right-wing populist and nationalistic party which to some extent represents positions of the extreme right. […] In May, 2013, the Jew- ish World Congress classified Svoboda as Members of the „Praviy Sektor“, i.e. „Right Sector“. (Source: Wikipedia) neo-nazi and demanded to ban the party.“ Still, some high-ranking EU representa- tives practically paid court to Tyahnibok, interview with Thilo Jung: „We are a union ment“ and the administrative system. thus contributing to his legitimation and of organisations of the right who joined Among the persons who were part of the a strengthening of the fascists‘ position. forces amidst the Euromaidan revolution initial coup government were: Aleksandr Along these lines, the EU‘s ambassador to fight the Yanukovych regime, and in this Sych (Svoboda): Deputy Prime Minister; to the Ukraine, Jan Tombinski, stated the were also on the front line. It is mainly Ihor Tenyuk (presumably Svoboda): Min- following in December, 2013: „The party thanks to us that this regime fell. […] The ister of Defence; Andrey Parubiy (Svobo- Svoboda has won ten percent in the elec- regime fell not only because of us, but da): Secretary of the National Council for tions, it fully supports establishing closer also because of all the people participat- Security and Defence Policy; Dmitro Ya- ties to the EU and is therefore a partner ing in those street protests. But when the rosh (Praviy Sektor): Deputy Secretary of of equal value.“ (Focus, No. 52/2013) real fighting began in this war-like situa- the National Security and Defence Council; tion, when weapons were actually used, Sergey Kvit (Svoboda): Minister of Educa- The reason for the charm campaign we were the main fighters on the front tion; Andriy Mokhnyk (Svoboda): Minister towards the forces of the radical right is line.“ (Jung & Naiv, 08 March, 2014) of the Environment; Ihor Shvayka (Svobo- obvious: without the fascists, the over- da): Minister of Agriculture and Nutrition; throw of Yanukovych would not have been As a reward for their „services“, the Oleg Makhnyzkiy (Svoboda): Prosecutor possible, as a representative of „Praviy fascists were later given several high-rank General (Voltairenet.org, 06 March, 2014). Sektor“ („Right Sector“) points out in an posts in the Ukrainian „transitional govern-

ZDF is surprised to find out. The Süd- elections against Tymoshenko‘s 12%. In deutsche Zeitung reveals that Tymoshenko turn, Klitschko won the mayoral elections In view of the alliance thus forged with the is ‚tainted herself, being part of a dubious in Kiev and since then – at least accord- new president, Klitschko was confident business and power élite‘. Die Welt comes ing to the German press – is available for at first that in the parliamentary elections up with a terrible suspicion: Tymoshenko greater tasks: „together with his ally, the on 26 October, 2014, as the front-runner is accused of being ‚just like Yanukovych likely future president Petro Poroshenko, of „Bloc Poroshenko“, he would win and – only prettier and with a braid‘.“142 the two-metre hulk is part of a hard-hitting become prime minister. There was every duo. After his convincing success in the reason to be optimistic, as Yuliya Tymoshen- Klitschko appears to have realised, though, Ukrainian capital, Observers consider the ko kept losing support and his bloc was that he would not stand a chance in the former sports star to have a bright future well ahead in the opinion polls. Though in elections. He therefore threw in his lot – and ahead of him and to be capable of assum- September, 2014, numerous members of most importantly, his ‚Udar‘ party appa- ing even higher political offices. Especially Tymoshenko‘s Batkyvshchina party (presum- ratus – with oligarch Petro Poroshenko, because so far, oligarch Poroshenko is ably in agreement with the USA) put the who with 54% clearly took the lead in the seen as a kind of ‚interim figure‘.“143 brakes on and founded the „Narodniy Front“

33 in the country‘s southeast, merely 25% of the population approved of closer ties to the EU, while nearly 47% were in favour of joining the Customs Union.149 One year later, a moderate shift „in favour“ of the pro- European position was recorded, but both in the south and the east of the Ukraine, a majority still rejects Western integration.150 Especially to those people, the amending law passed by the Ukrainian parliament as one of its first official acts on 23 Febru- ary, 2014, according to which the , native language to many Ukrain- ians, was to be downgraded, was a fatal signal. The intention of the law was to quash an earlier regulation stipulating that in areas where at least ten percent of the population speak a native language other than Ukrain- ian, that language can be used officially by the authorities.151 Even if, after severe protests, the law was cancelled, the damage During the 2015 Munich Security Conference, Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko called had already been done: many people did for even stronger Western support against Russia. Source: Widmann/MSC not feel represented by the new factions in power in Kiev, and resistance began to form. In the course of March and April, 2014, („Popular Front“) with Arseniy Yatsenyuk, agreement by the coup government on 21 the conflicts became increasingly heated, prime minister of the coup government, as March, 2014. On 27 June, 2014, also the and the People‘s Republics of Donetsk its leader. This force managed to prevail trade-related passages were signed by Petro and Lugansk were proclaimed, administra- in the end, by a narrow margin of 22.14% Poroshenko, and thus the entire document. tive buildings stormed and police stations against the „Bloc Poroshenko‘s” 21.81%. The Western media – appropriately – inter- attacked. First attempts by the army after This was not least due to the „successful“ preted this as a „ground-breaking deci- mid-April 2014 to take action against the in- attempt at skimming votes by integrating sion“146 for the country‘s Western integra- surgents were repelled, supposedly already forces of the extreme right. Which, by the tion. After the most recent parliamentary involving heavy fighting.152 A further decisive way, proves the claim – especially popu- elections – in which significant parts of the date was 02 May, 2014, when nearly 50 lar among the German Greens – that the population in the east did not participate – „pro-Russian“ persons were cruelly killed strength of the fascist factions had been this course change appears to be sealed for in ‘s trade union building by forces greatly exaggerated, which was supposedly the foreseeable future: „In the newly elected of the radical right. At the latest from that evident in the weak election results of Svo- Verkhovna Rada, the government camp point on, the situation could no longer be boda and Praviy Sektor, to be a complete now has a sufficient majority to continue called „occasional separatist activities“. myth144: „Due to an extremely nationalistic, on the ‚course of European orientation‘ and The insurgency in its entire range can only anti-Russian election campaign, the new dissociation from Russia and to secure it be understood as a reaction by large parts party ‚Narodni Front‘ quite obviously col- in constitutional law.“147 In keeping with of the Russian-speaking Ukrainian popula- lected votes from extreme-right, nationalist this trend, in December, 2014, the parlia- tion who are afraid for their health and voters (especially in Western Ukraine) and ment also paved the way for possible NATO lives due to the actions of radical right- this way stripped the extreme parties in membership: „With a law terminating its wing combat units. That the units taking that spectrum (‚Svoboda‘; ‚Praviy Sektor‘; non-aligned status, the Ukraine has cleared on the brunt of the combat operations in ‚Grazhdanska Pozitsiya‘) of a substantial the way for joining NATO. As expected, eastern Ukraine and in their course pro- vote potential, so that they failed to get with a large majority, the members of ceeding extremely brutally were primar- above the five-percent threshold and the Ukrainian parliament voted for a bill ily fascist battalions such as „Azov“ only formally will not become a ‚burden‘ to initiated by president Petro Poroshenko reinforced this tendency even further.153 the governing parties in parliament.“145 about ending the country‘s neutrality.“148 Thus Konrad Schuller, correspondent of So once again, Klitschko had to come to 4.3 The Spiral of Escalation and the the Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung, wrote terms with a defeat, though despite the Role of External Great Powers as early as 11 May, 2014, after the refer- ongoing wrestling match between him and endums on independence in the Donbass: Yatsenyuk (and behind the scenes between As already mentioned several times, sig- „Many people in this region are convinced the US and Germany), all of these actors are nificant parts of the Ukrainian population that the pro-Western government in united in the overall objective of wanting to feel greater sympathy towards Russia than power in the capital since the ‚Maidan‘ steer the Ukraine „westwards“. Probably the the West, or at least prefer to maintain a revolution in winter is responsible for most obvious signal of this was the signing more or less equal distance. Thus, accord- the recent bloody clashes between pro- of the political section of the EU association ing to a survey conducted in April 2014, Russian combatants, government authori-

34 EU Police Mission: „Disenchantment, Protest and Social Unrest“

With the Council Decision 2014/486/ seized control over local police, intelligence CFSP, the EU concluded to send an services and municipal buildings in the „advisory mission for civil security sector Eastern regions of and Donetsk, reform“ to the Ukraine (EUAM Ukraine). have declared the birth of self-proclaimed The legal basis presented was a request independent republics and have engaged for support from the European Union on in increasingly violent actions against the part of the „transitional government“ Ukrainian security forces. ... Ukrainian law of 20 March, 2014. The crisis manage- enforcement agencies have proved unable ment concept drawn up as a result was to restore law and order.“ (p. 4, Section 5) put forward on 19 July, 2014 and was adopted by the Council for External Affairs To remedy this situation, which is disagree- on 23 June, 2014 (Revised Crisis Manage- able from the EU‘s point of view, as the ment Concept for a civilian CSDP mission EU-friendly government has lost control in support of Security Sector Reform over substantial parts of the country, in Ukraine, Brussels, 19 June 2014). appears to be the principal aim of the EU police mission: „The EU strategic objective tures, whether they live in West or East What the Ukrainian rulers expect of the is to create the conditions that would allow and whether they support this government mission is expressed in a letter of 08 May, a stabilized security situation, re-estab- or not, there is a risk of disenchantment 2014 from the foreign minister at the lishment of the primacy of the rule of law and protest and social unrest in the me- time, Andrii Deshchytsia, to the EU High and enhancement of Ukrainian authorities‘ dium to longer term.“ (p. 22, Section 73) Representative for Foreign Affairs, Cath- capacity to ensure adequate and demo- Though with the decidedly pro-European erine Ashton, which is included in the EU‘s cratic governance of institutions in charge course, and especially the social austerity crisis management concept as an annex: „I of internal security.“ (p. 13, Section 44) measures imposed by the International would like to express my high appreciation Monetary Fund, „disenchantment, protest of the consistent EU support for Ukraine Under the heading „Risks to Mission and social unrest“ are evidently consid- aimed at counteracting Russian aggres- Accomplishment“, there is a passage ered acceptable, are even actively pro- sion and stabilizing internal situation.“ which demonstrates that not only eastern voked – and with full support from the EU. Ukraine is a mission objective: „If the And it would appear that it was decided To outline the problem, the situation in the Ukrainian authorities fail to deliver on the to implement this EU police mission in Ukraine is presented as follows in the crisis legitimate aspirations of Ukrainian citizens order to create means of counteract- management concept: „With little resist- as regards the efficiency and law-based ing the consequences of such a policy. ance, pro-Russian militant groups have capacities of their law enforcement struc- ties and pro-Ukrainian activists in mainly is so far trying to keep the portion of its NATO‘s bombardment of Yugoslavia, Rus- Russian-speaking Ukrainian cities such as own regular forces on Ukrainian territory as sia‘s act can be called a violation of inter- Odessa, Slavyansk and . […] The small as possible. […] Still, Russian military national law „of the second order at most“. perceptible run on the polling stations, support in past months never reached At the same time, also the Ukrainian further intensified by people‘s anger over a level from which the separatists could government is receiving massive support the bloodshed of the past weeks, seemed have occupied the entire Donbass. Once from the West. At first, this was officially to demonstrate that in the Donbass, the a respective advance by Ukrainian armed limited to financial „aid“, although for desire to separate from the Ukraine has forces had been beaten off, the Russian instance substantial portions of the EU grown well beyond the narrow circles of forces were soon withdrawn to their initial funds were apparently intended for war- active separatists and reached a substan- positions. Also, in the past, for example at fare: „Of the 2 billion euros of EU financial tial part of the general population.“154 the time the discussion about possible arms aid for 2014, the Ukraine can use a total supplies to the Ukraine culminated, the of 1,36 billion without appropriation. This Thus there can be no question whatsoever Russian government has endeavoured to de- was stated in an answer by the [German] that the insurgency in eastern Ukraine is escalate the military situation, in spite of all federal government. According to it, the not a Russian product alone. However, it its military and rhetorical sabre-rattling.“156 German share is 272 million euros. The cannot be denied, either, that the separa- federal government simply alleges that tist forces are being supported by Russia, Apart from support to the separatists in the Ukrainian government is not waging although to what extent remains unclear.155 eastern Ukraine, Moscow‘s other significant war against the citizens in eastern Ukraine And neither are there any indicators that reaction was obviously to break internation- and leaves a question on that matter Moscow intends to annex large parts of the al law and incorporate Crimea on 18 March, unanswered, namely to what extent it can Ukraine, even if this is implied frequently: 2014.157 It should be considered, however, exclude the use of the funds for the war.“159 „Russia supports the separatists by advising that it is at least contested whether this and training the rebels as well as supplying was an „annexation“, even though this term Successively, though, the support became them with weapons, equipment, intelligence, is solicitously cultivated in the West.158 It increasingly direct. The Deutsche Welle thus fire support and personnel. In this, Russia should further be noted that compared to reported in February 2015 that Britain had

35 sent 75 military advisors to the Ukraine, and is] a shark among sharks.“166 The Ukrain- Fund. For loans already granted to be paid that prime minister David Cameron gave ians do not appear to be placing much out, the IMF makes it a condition that the the following reason for this action: „If we hope in Poroshenko, either: „According to Ukraine loses no further territories.“172 don‘t stand up to Russia in the long-term it a survey, only 4 percent of Ukrainians say And finally, third, a „reform programme“ will be deeply damaging to all of us because that he is honest. But because he is clever was imposed on the Ukraine which makes you‘ll see further destabilization.“160 Also and appears to be independent because of any improvement of the living conditions of at an early stage, Washington supplied his money – the Berlusconi effect – , he is large parts of the population impossible to „non-lethal weapons“ and in April 2015 also obviously attractive. The power élite in the achieve: „Thus Kiev abandons the plans of sent trainers to the country: „About 300 US Ukraine circulates within itself. Just as in the previous government to slightly raise paratroopers have arrived in the Ukraine feudalism, they swap places, but the power pensions and the minimum wage (by ap- for a training mission. […] The training unit structure remains the same.“167 The as- prox. 45 cents per hour), and freezes both. for 900 soldiers of the National Guard, sessment made by the Observer about the Already in March [2014], the parliament which is under the authority of the Ukrain- members of parliament elected in October decided to cut the national budget by 17 ian interior ministry and consists mostly of 2014 is not exactly flattering, either: „The percent; over 24,000 civil servants are to former Maidan combatants, is intended to New Ukraine is Run by Rogues, Sexpots, be sacked in total, this is about ten percent last for six months and to take place as part Warlords, Lunatics and Oligarchs.“168 of all people employed by the state.“173 of a joint military exercise. Additionally, the However, this is only part of the agreed US support Kiev with military equipment Also in economic terms, the country is measures: „The already enacted reduction such as armoured vehicles, protective vests, on its knees: massive arms spending and of value-added tax will be rescinded, it will radar systems and night vision devices.“161 the devastations of the war have ag- remain at a steep 20 percent. For gas and gravated the already difficult situation heating, Ukrainian citizens will also have to 4.4 Replacement of Oligarchs, considerably yet again. Thus, in 2014, dig deeper into their pockets. Already by 01 Exploitation and Repression industrial production took a serious hit, as May [2014], the consumer price for gas was did exports – in spite of a serious devalu- to be raised by 56 percent, as the new rul- As already mentioned, the Maidan protests, ation of the country‘s currency: „In 2014, ers in Kiev, to whom Nation is so important at least initially, also had progressive mo- Ukrainian exports decreased by US$ 13 they are prepared to start a civil war over it, tives, such as especially demands for an bn (16.6%), thus substantially contributing had promised the IMF. From 01 July, district end to oligarch rule. But these goals were to the GDP decrease by approx. 7%. This heating will follow with a price raise by 40 swiftly abandoned and betrayed by the new development is surprising in so far as the percent. In 2015, both gas and heating are rulers. The transitional government even Ukrainian hryvnya devalued severely, and to become dearer again, by a further 40 strengthened the rulership of the oligarchs that should usually boost exports.“169 percent, and also for the following years up in the country by appointing Sergey Taruta to and including 2018, further increases by and Ihor Kolomoyskiy governors of Donetsk Faced with such a scenario, the new rul- 20 percent each year are scheduled.“174 and Dniepropetrovsk in March, 2014. If ers seem to be prepared to completely some voices complain that what has taken adapt their economic policy to the formu- The effects of these „reforms“, the next place was no revolution, but merely a las dictated by the IMF. After Russia was round of which was announced for 2015, „replacement of oligarchs“162, they are still understandably no longer prepared to stick are devastating: „On 12 February [2015], sugar-coating the matter: „The oligarchic to its assurances of financial support, on Christine Lagarde, Director of the Inter- personnel was merely replaced, moreover, 30 April, 2014, the IMF granted the Ukraine national Monetary Fund, announced that upon the transitional government‘s assump- a loan to the total amount of US$ 17 bn. the IMF had agreed on a new programme tion of power, the oligarchs have stepped It is to be paid out until 2016 in quarterly of economic reforms with the Ukrainian from the background, where they used to instalments, with the first tranche of 3.2 bn government. […] Among those already in exercise their power previously, onto the transferred in early May, 2014.170 Allocation effect is the exchange rate liberalisation of political stage themselves as new gover- of these IMF loans was, or rather is, tied to the Ukrainian currency, hryvnya. Its 67% nors, regional chiefs, special representa- three extremely problematic conditions. devaluation ensured billions in profits for tives who openly make decisions in lieu international currency traders within just a of the Kiev government, and additionally First, to the then still-pending signing few weeks, while at the same time it pushed even as outright prefects of the ‚West‘.“163 of the remaining parts of the associa- the average monthly wage in the country to tion agreement with the European Union, below 50 euros. An inflation rate of 25% in The election of billionaire Petro Poroshenko, as Peter Stano, spokesman of Stefan 2014 and the raise in gas prices by 50% in who has been an integral element of the Füle, EU enlargement commissioner at May 2014 make survival almost impossible Ukrainian establishment for years – al- the time, candidly acknowledged: „This for the weakest quarter of the population. beit on various sides164 – can be seen as a unprecedented amount of aid funding is But also the rest of the working population, further manifestation of the strengthened in direct connection with the Ukraine‘s especially old and physically weak people, rule of the oligarchs. Even if most observers signing and implementation of the as- will have to face a drastic deterioration of consider him the best candidate among the sociation agreement with the EU.“171 their living standard: For 2015 and 2016, oligarchs, and he announced his intention Second, the IMF loans appear, at least the dismissal of 10% of civil service employ- to curtail their power165, such a statement initially, to have been linked directly to „suc- ees and partial privatisation of the health should be taken with a good pinch of salt. cessful“ control of the insurgent parts of the care and education systems are planned. After all, as Kai Ehlers put it, „in the war country: „The new president is under severe The pensionable age for women is to be of the oligarchs he wants to take on, [he pressure from the International Monetary raised by 10 years, that of men by 5 years.

36 Social benefits for pensioners are to be consider the needs of the population. For contempt that the European Union, with scrapped, the market for medicines deregu- instance, in April, 2015, the „Wiener Institut all its pompous torch-bearing for noble lated. Pensions will be frozen at the current für Wirtschaftsvergleiche“ (Vienna Insti- goals and principles, has dispatched an EU level, free lunches for school children and tute for International Economic Studies) police mission to the Ukraine to enable the hospital patients will be cancelled.“175 published the study „How to stabilise the local authorities to suppress social pro- economy of Ukraine“, proposing remark- tests – and please note: in all parts of the A sell-off of nationalised enterprises is also able ways of how to put the country back country (see the box „EU Police Mission“). in the IMF‘s programme, as AFP reported on track economically and in a socially On the whole, it is not surprising that the in July, 2015: „Faced with the profound acceptable manner: „A shift in the spending political course of the new rulers in Kiev is economic crisis, the Ukraine‘s government priorities would imply among other things becoming more and more strictly authori- intends to sell close to 350 nationalised less spending on the military and also a tarian, repressive and nationalistic.182 enterprises. […] Kiev intends to achieve substantially smaller burden of public debt proceeds of several billion euros from the service […] Financial and material assis- What is particularly alarming in this is the sales. They have investors from Europe and tance should be rigidly tied to the progress increasingly open persecution of left-wing, the USA in mind. […] Among the enterprises on e.g. the legal system reforms (including socialist, trade-unionist or just simply „pro- to be privatised are also power stations monitoring their implementation), the sever- Russian“ people, which is, if not promoted, and energy suppliers as well as the port of ance of relationships between business and then at least tolerated and not prosecuted Odessa.“176 The specification to open up to politics, proper taxation of oligarchic assets, on the government‘s part. This development Western investment has the consequence and confiscation of illegally amassed wealth, is accompanied by a general reinforcement that US agribusiness corporations are including assets parked abroad. […] A more of forces of the radical right: „Even though increasingly grabbing prize pieces of Ukrain- constructive stance should be taken by the influence and presence of the volunteer ian agriculture for themselves. This is said Ukraine and the EU with regard to Russia’s units on the front in the country‘s east has to be revealed by reports by the Oakland strategic position and concerns expressed diminished, especially the Praviy Sektor has Institute in California, whose Policy Direc- in relation to the AA/DCFTA effects. Trilat- gained even more substance in Ukrainian tor, Frédéric Mousseau, speaks his mind in eral negotiations focusing on trade-related society. Together with the militia, Praviy the supplement magazine of Die Zeit: „The matters should be facilitated and decou- Sektor units have recently been busting Ukrainian fields are in great demand. There pled to the extent possible from non-trade illegal gambling houses in western Ukraine. are only a few other regions in the world issues to ensure practical dialogue.“179 Without any interference, Praviy Sektor with similarly precious – and so far not agri- hunts down dissenters.“183 The growing in- culturally exploited – soils. […] The reports Considering the current power constella- fluence of extreme-right forces is even more provide proof of how large US agribusiness tions, though, it is to be expected that in worrying in view of the continuing conflicts enterprises have been doing business in the the nearer future, none of these recom- within the still-current government camp. Ukraine for years. Among them are the Mon- mendations will be implemented. Which, santo corporation, controversial because of in turn, makes it very probable that even in 4.5 The Can of Worms Stays its business with genetically manipulated the more pro-Western parts of the country, Open: Wear and Tear in the seed, the Cargill agrobusiness corpora- disaffection will continue to grow: „The „Pro-Western“ Camp tion and the chemical corporation DuPont. pressure of the reforms the EU and the Recently, the companies had increased their IMF have promised on the way to future A scenario which is difficult to assess and investments substantially, says Mousseau – association agreements makes further leaves quite a few questions open is the to an extent that this equals a ‚takeover of protests very likely in the future, especially chain of events in connection with oligarch Ukrainian agriculture by Western corpora- as they also formed the sediment of the Ihor Kolomoyskiy‘s removal from office as tions‘. And the West‘s financial institutions, Maidan demands which to date have not governor of the Dnipropetrovsk oblast at the such as the World Bank and the Interna- been met in any way. Also in Kiev and in end of March, 2015. The fact itself indi- tional Monetary Fund, support the interests western Ukraine, despite the nationalistic cates a serious conflict between president of Capital by means of their policy.“177 components which in the course of the Poroshenko and Kolomoyskiy. The latter So even though things are getting truly Maidan developments took on a life of their stands for an extremely hard line in the nasty for large parts of the population due own, social hardship was a driving element fight against the insurgents. According to to the IMF‘s austerity conditions, in March of discontent. Growing social protests are investigations by „Frontal21“, he seems to 2015, a further massive enlargement of the to be expected in the west and in Kiev be funding at least five „volunteer units“ army was rubber-stamped: „with a large as well, for instead of a government of consisting of several thousand combat- majority, the Ukrainian parliament has brigands, the Ukraine now has a govern- ants, which took charge of large parts of decided on an enlargement of the army by ment of blackmailers.“180 This is the point the war in the east instead of the badly more than one third to 250,000 soldiers. still offering hope and prospects: that an equipped and weakly motivated regular 270 of 422 delegates voted in favour of increasing number of people in the Ukraine army. Among them is „the ‚Azov‘ battal- president Petro Poroshenko‘s proposal. will put up resistance against the attempt ion, a pool of Ukrainian nationalists and Until recently, the size of the armed forces to divert the socio-economic causes the extreme right-wingers. Their symbol is had been limited to 184,000 soldiers.“178 protests are based on into channels of based on the so-called Wolfsangel, a Nazi nationalism – and it is the „danger“ of this emblem from the days of Nazi rule.“184 To this course – supported, if not even happening that the new rulers in Kiev and initiated by the West – there exists a clear, their Western supporters fear most.181 A cynical twist in the matter is that the con- feasible alternative which most of all would It is a particularly embittering sign of flict between Poroshenko and Kolomoyskiy

37 sparked off due to IMF requirements which battalions united in a ‚Joint Staff‘ which is billionaire Ihor Kolomoyskiy, who on the the financier of volunteer battalions defied explicitly intended as an alternative to the one hand openly supports many volunteer rather flippantly. Russian news agency Sput- general staff of the armed forces.«„186 formations, but on the other has repeatedly nik however speculates that there could be been observed in the context of armed raids a lot more behind this, namely the attempt Although in early April, 2015, it was an- on rival business enterprises. […] Although by the US to torpedo Poroshenko‘s slightly nounced that integration of the volunteer ‚Praviy Sektor‘ denies having anything to more moderate course via Kolomoyskiy and units had been „successful“, there still are do with Kolomoyskiy, many connections his fascist formations – which once again indicators giving rise to doubts whether are clearly visible. For example, in the sheds a light on the background of the dif- that is in fact the case. For one, the role last parliamentary election, the ‚Hetman‘, ferent positions of Washington and Berlin: of Dmytro Yarosh, leader of Praviy Sek- as some fighters call their leader Dmytro „The break between them was triggered tor, is unclear; as a kind of reward, he was Yarosh, won a constituency in Kolomoyskiy‘s by a law redefining the regulation concern- appointed a high-ranking advisor around sphere of control around the industrial city ing voting majorities in Ukrainian national that time. What his actual tasks are and of Dnipropetrovsk, and the deputy com- enterprises. Kolomoyskiy the billionaire whether in this position he has the sole mander of his ‚volunteer corps‘, Valentin owns substantial shares in and has a lot of authority (of course in coordination with Manko, on his Facebook page simultane- influence on Ukranafta and Ukrtransnaft, his financiers) over the volunteer units ously presents himself as the deputy com- companies which have the monopoly on oil remains unclear. Further, the question is mander of the ‚ 1‘ battalion, a unit production and oil pipelines in the Ukraine. open whether the 290 US paratroopers de- established with Kolomoyskiy‘s money.“188 The new law dictated by the IMF would have ployed with the explicit mission to train the lost him a lot of influence. In expression of „National Guard“, i.e. the „volunteer units“, In mid-May, 2015, Poroshenko assem- his annoyance, he had the two companies‘ are intended to keep the latter in line more bled an „International Reform Council“ head offices occupied by armed detach- strictly, or whether their actual purpose for himself, members of which are, for ments for some time. […] Without Kolomoys- is to prepare those units for Washington‘s instance, US hardliner John McCain or the kiy, Poroshenko would not have been able considerably more aggressive objec- chairman of the European Parliament‘s to keep the Donbass war going. His oil com- tives; they possibly have both functions. Foreign Affairs Committee, Elmar Brok, panies supply fuel for the Ukrainian army, and which is headed by former Georgian the volunteer battalions funded by him have Whatever may actually be the case, it can president Mikheil Saakashvili. At the end played a decisive part in recent months. certainly not be observed with any optimism of May, 2015, Saakashvili, notoriously of In contrast to the regular Ukrainian army, that, no matter what the cause may have anti-Russian persuasion and wanted in his which is not very willing to fight against been, in April 2015, Praviy Sektor launched native country for abuse of administrative their own population, the combatants of the a major attack in eastern Ukraine, thus authority, was then appointed governor of Kolomoyskiy-funded battalions are highly violating Minsk II. From the point of view Odessa by Poroshenko. This was a move to motivated. They are paid much better and of Uli Cremer, there are various possible kill two birds with one stone: Saakashvili, to some extent are better equipped than the explanations for this offensive: „So there are considered a hardliner, was placed in a spot Ukrainian army. Kolomoyskiy‘s TV stations three possible command varieties for the which in the controversy had proved to be are an important factor in controlling public ceasefire violation through Praviy Sektor‘s troublesome, bordering directly on the re- opinion in the conflict. […] Kolomoyskiy can advance: either ‚integration‘ of the militias gion of Transnistria, which wants to secede find support not only in the Ukraine, but has not been achieved, meaning that they from Moldova and is supported by Russia. also abroad. By signing Minsk II, Poroshen- are continuing to act of their own accord (a) But above all, Saakashvili took over the ko is clearly following the political line of or respectively at the command of the ‚joint office from Igor Palytsya, a close confidant Merkel, Hollande and Obama. This policy staff‘ of volunteer battalions which has not of Kolomoyskiy, thus marginalising the latter is not shared by all politicians, neither in been disbanded after all (b). Or the order even further. This appears to have happened Europe, nor in America. The Baltic states came from the Kiev high command, meaning with approval from the US, who at the and Poland stand for tougher Western ac- directly from the Ministry of Defence (c).“187 latest at that point seem to have dropped tion in the Ukraine, and neoconservative Kolomoyskiy, which is also suggested by politicians such as Victoria Nuland and John According to reports in early May, 2015 by reports claiming that Washington is paying McCain, as well as parts of NATO, favour Konrad Schuller, Ukraine correspondent of the salaries for Saakashvili‘s staff as well as a military escalation. They may well be the Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung, which in the costs for training a new police corps.189 considering an option in Kolomoyskiy.“185 turn were based on releases by the Ukrain- As a consequence, Kolomoyskiy perceptibly ian secret service, an open conflict seems withdrew from events, although it is far from At the same time, the signs became clearer to have erupted between Kolomoyskiy and certain that he will remain out of the game. that various attempts of bringing the „vol- Praviy Sektor on one side and the govern- unteer units“ under government control ment on the other: „The government is None of the three wars, already flaring or were about to fail. Thus, their reaction to striking back massively behind the scenes. about to erupt – the one between the Kiev the endeavour of incorporating them into In an internal paper of the secret service, rulers and the separatists, the one between the defence ministry‘s command structure SBU, which has been made available to the Kiev and the Ukrainian population and (they have been operating fully indepen- FAZ, it is stated that ‚Praviy Sektor‘ really is the one among the rulers themselves – is dently so far) was to establish a parallel something very different from the supposed in any way close to a resolution, and all organisation: „On 19 Feb 2015 (i.e. AFTER citizens‘ militia of courageous patriots it three have the potential to escalate to an the Minsk 2 Agreement), in Dnipropetro- purports to be. In truth it supposedly has immense scale. So in whatever way one vsk, »the leaders of 17 Ukrainian volunteer close ties to the circle of controversial looks at the matter, the Ukraine is facing

38 extremely hard times, and the context in which this challenge will have to be met, i.e. the intensifying conflicts between the West and Russia, will certainly not con- tribute towards facilitating the situation.

137. Eipeldauer, Thomas: Euromaidan. Vom Sozialprotest zur Hegemonie der äu- ßersten Rechten, in: Thoden, Ronald/ Schiffer, Sabine (Ed.): Ukraine im Visier. Russlands Nachbar als Ziels- cheibe geostrategischer Interessen, Frankfurt/M, 2014, pp. 121-131, p. 129. 138. Ukraine: “Parlamentswahl wird Rechtsparteien stärken”, Der Standard, 02 July, 2014. 139. Lauterbach, Reinhard: Vom Hoff- nungsort zur Räuberhöhle: Aufstieg und Niedergang des Euro-Maidan, in: Strutynski, 2014, pp. 19-32, p. 25. 140. Ukraine Teil 4: War es ein Putsch?: https://subversivesfieber.word- press.com/2014/03/09/ukraine- teil-4-war-es-ein-putsch/ 141. “Gefahr einer Spirale nach unten”, Deutschlandfunk, 18 March, 2014. 142. Kronauer 2014a. 143. Bürgermeister in Kiew - die zweite Karriere des Vitali Klitschko, Säch- sische Zeitung, 26 May, 2014. 144. Thus, for instance, , spokesperson for Eastern European Policy of the German Greens, issued the follow- ing triumphant press release (Ukraine: Bevölkerung bleibt besonnen und wählt Europa, 27 Oct, 2015): “The Ukraine is Europe. We must support its course of EU convergence even more decisively. In spite of ice-cold homes for lack of Russian gas supplies, the annexed Crimean and war-like conditions in the east, voters have clearly rejected the radical parties.” 145. Schünemann, Manfred: Zu den Ergebnissen der Parlamentswahlen am 26. Oktober in der Ukraine, RLS Online, November 2014, p. 1. 146. Vierertreffen zum Ukraine-Konflikt in Berlin, Tagesspiegel, 01 July, 2014. 147. Schünemann 2014, p. 1. 148. Ukraine macht Weg für Nato-Beitritt frei, Die Welt, 23 Dec, 2014. 149. The views and opinions of South-Eastern regions residents of Ukraine, Kiev Interna- tional Institute of Sociology, April 2014. 150. Socio-political situation in Ukraine, Kiev International Institute of Sociology, March 2015.

39 151. Hier russisch, da ungarisch, Die Tag- is hardly likely that the Maidan movement a total of 27 billion dollars from foreign eszeitung (“taz”), 27 Feb, 2014. will lead to profound change and can thus creditors, among them the IMF, the EU, 152. Wikipedia: War in the Donbass re- really be called a revolution. The most the US and the World Bank.” (Ukrai- gion (Eastern Ukraine) . serious candidate in the presidential elec- nischer Premier: Westliche Hilfsgelder 153. “’In the areas retook from the pro-Russian tions on 25 May is indeed ‘chocolate king’ retteten Ukraine vor Staatsbankrott, separatists, these battalions committed the Petro Poroshenko, one of the richest men RIA Novosti, 06 June, 2014. In Ger- same kind of crimes as the separatists did in the country.’ While on Maidan, demon- man only, no directly corresponding before’, says Bogdan Ovcharuk, Ukrainian strators were still dying from bullets, the English-language article available.) spokesman of Amnesty International. ‘We transition was already being negotiated 171. As impressive as that may seem at first have documented torture, mistreatment, in the antechambers of power – with the glance, if one takes a look at Ukrain- kidnappings and people held for ransom. entrepreneurs who were in control of the ian gas debts to Russia alone, this Due to the lack of investigation of such Ukraine.” (Dérens, Jean-Arnault/Geslin, amount quickly drops into perspective. crimes and the lack of control over these Laurent: Schwergewichte aus Donezk. 172. Wie der Westen ukrainische Reformen battalions, such violations keep happening Die Revolution in der Ukraine ist eher ein sponsert, Deutsche Welle, 08 May, 2014. again and again.’” (Kämpfen auf eigene Oligarchenwechsel, le monde diploma- 173. Kein Zuckerschlecken, Die Tageszei- Faust, Tagesschau online, 30 Sept, 2014) tique (German edition), 11 April, 2014) tung (“taz”), 26 May, 2014. 154. Zornig in langen Schlangen, Frankfurter 163. Ehlers, Kai: Roter Faden durch den 174. Für Frieden und Freiheit, German- Allgemeine Zeitung, 11 May, 2014. ukrainischen Dschungel, URL: http:// Foreign-Policy.com, 30 May, 2014. 155. Behind the Masks in Ukraine, kai-ehlers.de/texte/artikel-zur- 175. Pommrehn, Wolfgang: Ukraine: Die Aufla- Many Faces of Rebellion, New lage/2014-05-07-roter-faden-durch- gen des IWF, Telepolis, 15 May, 2014. York Times, 03 May, 2014. den-ukrainischen-dschungel-2 176. Wolff, Ernst: IWF-Kredite an die Ukraine: 156. Tammiga, Oliver: Ein schmaler Grat. 164. “The entrepreneur is one of the leading Ziel ist die vollständige Destabilisierung Russland zwischen militärischer Es- political survivors. In the 1990s and early des Landes, Radio Utopie, 17 Feb, 2015. kalation und Deeskalation in der 2000s, the chocolate magnate had sup- 177. Ukraine will 350 Staatsunternehmen Ostukraine, Ukraine-Analysen No. ported the president at the time, Leonid verkaufen, AFP, 09 July, 2015. 150, 29 April, 2015, pp. 7-8, p. 7. Kuchma, before joining the movement that 178. Wettlauf um die ukrainische Schwarzerde, 157. Thus Norman Paech writes (Einseitige brought about his downfall. Then he was Die Zeit, 16 March, 2015. Unabhängigkeitserklärung verboten, Neues foreign minister under former president 179. Ukrainisches Parlament ver- Deutschland, 14 March, 2014): “It is obvi- Viktor Yushchenko, who is also godfather größert Armee um ein Drittel, Der ous that in the Ukraine’s constitution there to his daughters. Later he became trade Standard, 05 March, 2015. is no passage providing for any unilateral minister under Yanukovych, before leading 180. Adarov, Amat et al.: How to Stabilise secession of any part of the country. […] the protests that ousted the president in the Economy of Ukraine, Wiener Insti- For a long time, precisely since the de- February. Although Poroshenko belongs to tut für Internationale Wirtschaftsver- colonialisation process, there has been the the establishment, his election campaign gleiche, Final Report, April 2015. problem of competition between territorial slogan ‘Live the New Way’ promises a 181. Ehlers, Kai: Roter Faden durch den integrity and the right of self-determi- break with the past. He wants to save ukrainischen Dschungel, URL: http:// nation. […] Today, after de-colonisation, the country’s economy by concluding a kai-ehlers.de/texte/artikel-zur- territorial integrity has precedence. And trade agreement with the EU and taking lage/2014-05-07-roter-faden-durch- of course especially the prohibition of out a loan from the International Mon- den-ukrainischen-dschungel-2 violence, secession must not be forced etary Fund.” (Schokoladenkönig Petro 182. Brangsch, Lutz: Der Krieg der Oli- violently. The right of self-determination Poroschenko will Ukraine zur Einheit garchen, in: Luxemburg, June 2014. for minorities is reduced to being granted zurückführen, Wall Street Journal, 20 183. Do Ukraine’s new nationalist laws autonomy, self-government, federal May, 2014. German version only, the justify Kremlin’s criticism? Christian structures within the state’s borders.” English-language quote here is a back- Science Monitor, 13 April, 2015. 158. Merkel, Reinhard: Die Krim und translation from the German article.) 184. Ein längst überfälliger Schritt, Die das Völkerrecht, Frankfurter Allge- 165. Poroshenko’s words in reference to Tageszeitung (“taz”), 14 April, 2015. meine Zeitung, 07 April, 2014. the Ukrainian oligarchs: “They will have 185. Documentary: Krise in der Ukraine 159. Ukraine: 1,36 EU-Kriegsmilliarden, no influence on politics. Period.” (“Der - Oligarchen finanzieren Bataillone, IMI-Aktuell, 2015/103. einzige Ausweg sind Wahlen – und Frontal21, 05 August, 2014. 160. Britain to send army trainers to Ukraine, nicht Maschinenpistolen”, Frankfurter 186. Sumo-Kampf auf Ukrainisch: Staat- Deutsche Welle, 24.02.2015. Allgemeine Zeitung, 09 May, 2014) schef entlässt Top-Oligarchen, 161. 300 US-Fallschirmjäger bilden National- 166. Poroschenko, Timoschenko und Co – Sputnik, 26 March, 2015. (Ger- gardisten aus, Die Welt, 17 April, 2015. Anmerkungen zu einem bemerkenswerten man version only, no corresponding 162. “’A revolution? No, the cards were simply Programm, kai-ehlers.de, 09 May, 2014. English-language article available.) dealt to new players.’ Sociologist Vladimir 167. Rötzer, Florian: Die Ukraine vor der Wahl 187. Cremer, Uli: G7-Außenminister auf Ishchenko, Head of the Centre for Social – desolat, Telepolis, 23 May, 2014. Distanz zu Kiew, Grüne Friedensini- Research in Kiev, only a few weeks after 168. The Observer, 14 Jan, 2015. tiative, 15 April, 2015 (the quote is Yanukovych fled and the new government 169. Starker Exportrückgang im Jahr from Ukrainische Freiwilligenverbände has assumed office, openly shows his 2014 trotz massiver Abwertung, rücken von Kiew ab, Frankfurter Allge- disappointment. ‘This government stands Newsletter deutsche Beratergruppe meine Zeitung, 20 Feb, 2015). for the same values as the previous one: Ukraine, No. 77, March, 2015. 188. Ibid. economic liberalism and personal enrich- 170. There are additional funds from other 189. Bruderzwist am Rande des Krieges, Frank- ment. Not all uprisings are revolutions. It sources: “The Ukraine expects to receive furter Allgemeine Zeitung, 02 March 2015.

40 5. Cold War: A Self-Fullfilling Prophecy?

As already elaborated above, for years now, damage Russia. For instance, with remark- Eurasia. […] Not least for historical reasons, a kind of New Cold War is being outrightly able candour, George Friedman, head of Germany should not make the error of ranted into existence (see Chapter 1.3). the aforementioned private intelligence showing a lack of courage, high principles In this, the plans, to some extent openly service Strategic Forecast with close ties to and foresight in its future Ukraine policy.“192 announced, of utilising the Ukraine cri- the CIA, at a conference in February 2015 sis to contrive to also force a change of remarked: „Now the point is that the United Those actively working towards destabilisa- government in Russia, and thus generate States is prepared to create a ‚cordon tion and overthrowing Vladimir Putin see, a significantly more pro-Western attitude sanitaire‘ around Russia. Russia knows in keeping with the ideas of „Neue Macht there, has recently been causing the fronts it, Russia believes that the United States – Neue Verantwortung“, the appropriate to harden continuously (Chapter 5.1). The intends to break the Russian Federation. means for bringing about a regime change fact that since the Ukrine crisis has erupted, I don‘t think […] that we want to kill you, to be the „civil society“. Along these lines, NATO has been stepping up its readiness we just want to hurt you a little bit. Either Stefan Meister, head of the areas Eastern status in respect to Russia towards a way, we are back at the old game.“190 Europe, Russia and Central Asia at the general mobilisation is aggravating such a „Robert Bosch-Zentrum“ of the „Deutsche development even further (Chapter 5.2), Faced with such, partly open, damands to Gesellschaft für Auswärtige Politik“ („Ger- and there is the obvious threat that the utilise the „favourable“ situation to pave the man Council on Foreign Relations“, DGAP), swashbuckling on both sides will lead way towards regime changes in other post- complains (also in Internationale Politik) to an all-out escalation (Chapter 5.3). Soviet countries and even in Russia itself, that „the ‚faction of economic liberalism‘ In any conceivable future constellation, every single alarm bell in Moscow must be among the Russian élite no longer has any Germany will have an essential part, also ringing at full blast. Thus, for instance, Lilia influence on the current Russian admin- because it is considered the most likely of Shevtsova of the „Carnegie Endowment for istration.“193 The „Putin system is stuck the influential Western actors that might International Peace“ writes: „In the Ukraine, in a crisis“, Meister states and then with begin to pursue a course of greater benevo- the post-Soviet development model, char- breath-taking frankness in fact proposes to lence towards Russia. And indeed, various acterising all the new independent states adapt the scenario completed in the Ukraine interests on the German side are having (except for the Baltics), has crashed. The to Russia, as well: „Instead of continuing to a – slightly – moderating effect on German Ukraine has become the weakest link in legitimise the Putin system by means of of- policies towards the Ukraine and Russia. the post-Soviet chain. One should keep an fers for cooperation and dialogue bordering While the US are pushing for an even more eye on the matter that similar revolutions on self-abandonment and thus undermining aggressive anti-Russian course, Germany are also possible in other countries.“191 its own system of values, German politics is trying to avoid an all-out escalation – should learn that it is not the Russian élites though certainly without demonstrating any There are also voices in Germany to be which bring about change, but Russian preparedness to respect Moscow‘s elemen- heard calling for actions of that kind – and society. The Ukraine has just demon- tary interests (Chapter 5.4). However, a that these calls are also aimed at Russia strated this; though it and other states in breach between the US and Germany – as directly becomes clear, for example, in the the eastern neighbourhood require more hoped for and even predicted by parts of words of Andreas Umland, currently one financial and political support. Intensifica- the peace movement – is not really to be of the most sought-after „experts“ on the tion of the exchange with civil society as expected, the conflicts which obviously to Ukraine conflict. In „Internationale Politik“, well as with alternative élites in business some extent exist notwithstanding. The according to its own appraisal the most and society is a central task of European reason for this is that both countries have important organ of the German foreign policy. […] For this purpose, existing net- fairly similar notions of what an economic and security policy élites, he writes: „Until working platforms such as the Petersburger world order should be like and of the poli- recently, the EU seems to have ignored the Dialog sould be fundamentally reformed cies required to establish and maintain it. notion that Moscow might put up resist- by a reorientation towards and inclusion This shared interest dominates most other ance against integration of the Ukraine. It of genuine civil society, small and medium ambitions and aspirations, and is the bond is a traditional blunder to be so blue-eyed businesses as well as alternative élites, and in trans-Atlantic relations. Yet the concept with regard to the foreign policy interests new forums of exchange in and with Russia often resorted to of the dichotomy between of the Kremlin. […] Now they are faced with should be developed, for example through democracies and autocracies does not the decision: does their country belong the German political foundations.“194 work here, as it fails to even come close with Europe and its Western orientation or to the core of the controversy. In fact, this is it part of a Russian-influenced ‚Eurasian‘ In view of such contemplations, one should is a confrontation between a neoliberal civilisation? […] With an alignment of the also take another look at the real reasons bloc and a state-capitalist bloc (Chapter Ukraine with the EU, not only would the for and purpose of the sanctions imposed 5.5). Therefore it is highly probable that range of European values and institutions be on Russia. In this context, an analysis by the prospective Chinese-Russian alliance extended hundreds of kilometres towards the EU think tank „Institute for Security will consolidate further and new blocs the east. If EU accession of the Ukraine is Studies“ comes to the conclusion that the will indeed be formed (Chapter 5.6). solidified, Russia would have to abandon sanctions are helpful in preventing Russia its neo-imperial dreams for good. […] Not from annexing further parts of the Ukraine 5.1 The West to be Extended only by itself is the Ukraine therefore of or other post-Soviet countries – even though right up to Russia‘s Doorstep? great significance to the EU. To the West it is extremely doubtful whether that is as a whole, it could become a gateway Moscow‘s intention anyway – but that they To some degree, it is even conceded openly towards gradual democratisation of the are completely inappropriate as a means that US policies are purposely intended to huge, previously Soviet territory in northern of forcing a course change in currently hot

41 MH-17: Zenith of Propaganda!

On 17 July, 2014, the civilian airliner Zeitung, he warned against misinterpret- MH-17 crashed over eastern Ukraine, and ing the „indicators“ as final proof, he still nearly 300 people died in the disaster. called them „overwhelming“: „The crash The institution chosen to investigate the of the Malaysian plane will have a deci- incident in the end was the „Dutch Safety sive effect on this war. The Ukraine will Board“, as the largest part of the vic- require all the support it can get to close tims, 193 of 298 persons, were from the off and secure its borders. If finally the Netherlands. On 09 September, 2014, the chain of evidence against the pro-Russian first preliminary report and a summarising separatists and the arms suppliers in press release were published, present- Moscow is completed, Russia will have to ing two central preliminary investigation bear the full impact of sanctions – also results in particular: first, that „no signs and especially implemented by Europe.“ of any technical faults or an emergency situation“ were revealed, which in reverse Another, particularly conspicuous example implies that the plane would have been was Wolfgang Münchau, founder and one shot down. Second – and even more of the chief editors of the former „Finan- importantly – the report clearly empha- cial Times Deutschland“, who was given sises that at the time of its publication, no a forum for his anti-Russian rantings by exact information about further details, Spiegel Online on 21 July, 2014: „The final especially about the presumed perpetra- proof is still to be provided, but Russia tors, can be provided: „The initial results seems to be responsible for the deaths of the crash. One of the few dissenting of the investigation point towards an of the people on board MH17. Tough voices was raised by Gabor Steingart, chief external cause of the MH-17 crash. More sanctions in the financial and resources editor of Handelsblatt, who – surely also research will be necessary to determine sector are the appropriate answer – even if in view of the interests of German industry the cause with greater precision.“ German managers don‘t like the idea. [...] represented by the Eastern Committee Putin‘s friends in Germany will continue to of German Industry – launched a severe Also in a further report published in mid- insist, along formal legal lines, that there attack on the German media on 08 August, October, 2015, the Safety Board‘s experts is no ‚proof‘ that Russia had anything to do 2014: „German journalism has switched made no statements on who was responsi- with the downing of Flight MH17. However, from level-headed to agitated in a matter ble for the disaster. A completely different the signs are more than clear. [...] The indi- of weeks. The spectrum of opinions has reaction came from almost the entire range cators are sufficient for a political verdict. been narrowed to the field of vision of a of German press hounds, who already And this is what the matter is about: a po- sniper scope. Newspapers we thought to one day after the crash were absolutely litical verdict. No court will decide in this. be all about thoughts and ideas now march sure how to assess the situation. Thus, [...] How to do it right was demonstrated in lock-step with politicians in their calls Klaus-Dieter Frankenberger, in Frankfurter by the Americans last week – before MH17 for sanctions against Russia‘s President Allgemeine Zeitung, „knew“ as early as on was shot down. They are backing financial Putin. […] The Tagesspiegel: ‘Enough talk!’ 18 July, 2014 how to interpret the „evi- sanctions. This way, they will strangle Rus- The FAZ: ‘Show strength’. The Süddeutsche dence“: „At the moment one can only make sian companies. [...] Not only Schröder is Zeitung: ‘Now or never.’ The Spiegel calls assumptions. […] But there are indicators the problem. The federal minister of the for an ‘End to cowardice’: ‘Putin‘s web which make it appear plausible that it was economy should make it clear to the chair- of lies, propaganda, and deception has a ruthless, heinous military act commit- men of German enterprises that contacts been exposed. The wreckage of MH 17 is ted by pro-Russian separatists in eastern with Putin and his entourage are deemed also the result of a crashed diplomacy.’ Ukraine who shot down the plane on its officially undesirable. Until further notice, Western politics and German media agree.” way from Amsterdam to Kuala Lumpur Russia will no longer be the destination of with a ground-to-air missile; they may have German investments. The Eastern Commis- Indeed, so far nobody can exclude without taken it for a Ukrainian military plane. […] sion of German Industry should now assist doubt that separatist forces and/or Russia In turn, the European Union will have to in organising the strategic withdrawal are responsible for the crash. Yet there decide whether it will seriously step up of German enterprises from Russia.“ is no evidence of this which would more sanctions or continue to pursue illusions.“ than vaguely stand up in court, either, only These are only three examples of the nu- accusations of guilt and speculation. To A further example of this attitude is Stefan merous hysterical, warmongering reactions demand such a degree of escalation on Kornelius, one who is always ready to call in the German media, culminating in the such a shaky basis was nothing but vicious for intervention. Although as the head of Spiegel title picture of 28 July, 2014 which warmongering, instrumentalising the vic- the foreign policy desk of Süddeutsche insidiously instrumentalised the victims tims of the plane crash in a nasty manner. matters such as Crimea.195 In considera- that the sanctions have failed completely is meagre. […] So far, neither in the Russian tion of the official objectives, the Stiftung and are even counterproductive: „On bal- government, nor among the extended Wissenschaft und Politik actually asserts ance, the effect intended by the sanctions political and economic élite or the general

42 population has any perceivable change of may fire up matters to an extent where the more, as hardliners applaud: „The new attitude towards the conflict or any change smouldering powder keg will really explode. ‚Readiness Action Plan‘ […] is an important in the calculations of cost and effect taken turning point. For it breaks with the spirit place. On the contrary: the events in the 5.2 Playing with Fire – NATO of the NATO-Russia Founding Act of 1997, Ukraine and their reprocessing in Russian Mobilisation and War Games which has proven to be an illusion.“204 propaganda have reinforced the support According to the secret document, six (later for the regime which relies on relations of The information service „Jane’s Intelligence eight) new military bases – in the three loyalty and conservative national, anti- Review“, which usually has excellent data Baltic states as well as in Bulgaria, Poland, Western attitudes. Though such an unin- at its disposal for insiders, considers a Hungary, Slovakia and Romania – are to tended effect was indeed predictable.“196 military campaign on the part of Russia be established, with a permanent person- against one of the Baltic states or Poland nel of 300 to 600. The further details are Consequently, it appears at least plausible to be extremely improbable: „Jane’s arrives described by the „Frankfurter Allgemeine when politology professor Thomas Jäger, at the assessment that the risk of open, Sonntagszeitung“ as follows: „In the docu- who is certainly not among those sympa- armed Russian aggression against one of ment, Russia is classified as a ‚threat to thetic towards Putin‘s policies, has the view the Baltic states is low. Russia will continue Euro-Atlantic security‘. Its actions in the that – at least to the US – the principal its proactive manoeuvres, border violations Ukraine are analysed under the category objective of the sanctions is to fundamen- and arms deployment in Kaliningrad, but of ‚hybrid warfare‘. The alliance commits tally weaken Russia: „Neither the Crimean this serves the purpose of intimidating the itself to ‚the improvement of NATO’s abil- nor the Ukrainian crisis will be solved that Baltic states, not of a military attack.“200 ity to reinforce its eastern Allies through way. Though to the American government, preparation of national infrastructure‘. This these are matters of the second order, Yet based on exactly that argument, that is to be realised by means of new com- anyway. While the military measures are the eastern European members need to be mand structures and the pre-deployment of intended to calm the alliance partners and „reassured“, NATO initiated a downright equipment. […] Further, a quick-response warn the Russian government, they are not mobilisation against Russia which after task force of about 4,000 in strength is to even designed to strategically alter the Rus- the alliance‘s summit in September 2014 be formed which in case of an attack or sian position in international relations. The was intensified even further. Already at an infiltration by hostile forces can be de- American Russia policy meanwhile has the early stage, air surveillance over eastern ployed in the east within a few days.“205 aims of financial containment and isolation. Europe was stepped up, more manoeuvres The financial war has begun – and it is not carried out, and the US launched a „Eu- Subsequently, the figure for this „Very High a cold one (which is why the analogy to ropean Reassurance Initiative“ including Readiness Joint Task Force“ (VJTF), also the Cold War is simply wrong.).“197 Eastern funding to the amount of approx. US$ 1 bn. referred to as a „Spearhead“ force, was Europe expert Reinhard Lauterbach also Accordingly, in May, 2014, NATO‘s Sectre- „corrected“ to 5,000 to 7,000 soldiers who shares this assessment: „It would appear tary General at the time (and anti-Russian will be an element of the Nato Response anyway that the US strategy is less modest: hardliner) Anders Fogh Rasmussen stated Force (NRF), which was also reinforced from it is about fomenting discontent among Rus- in satisfation: „We have already taken im- 17,000 to 40,000 soldiers. The VRTF is sian society by means of economic sanc- mediate measures: more planes in the air, suposed to be operative from 2016, ready tions and this way to create prerequisites more ships at sea, and more exercises on for deployment within two to five days, for a regime change in Moscow, as well.“198 the ground.“201 On the same occasion, he and able to operate world-wide. However, already announced a „Readiness Action the document issued in conclusion of the And indeed: even if the low oil price is Plan“ by which the anti-Russian meas- NATO summit leaves no doubt where the having an even more crippling effect on ures were to be intensified even further focus lies and thus where the principal the economy, the sanctions are also hurt- and which in the end was enacted at the opponent is located: „we will establish ing Russia quite seriously. Nevertheless, September 2014 NATO summit in Wales. a Very High Readiness Joint Task Force Vladimir Putin currently quite obviously (VJTF), a new Allied joint force that will be enjoys great popularity among the popula- Generally, in the NATO summit report, there able to deploy within a few days to respond tion, his approval rating in February, 2015 are unusually many and strident hostile to challenges that arise, particularly at was supposedly at over 85%.199 In such a remarks to be found against Moscow. For the periphery of NATO‘s territory.“206 This situation it is, at the very least, extremely instance, „Russia‘s aggressive actions clarifies that if required in NATO‘s view, the careless to keep ranting on about a civil against Ukraine“ are critisised and „Russia‘s task force is also intended to be able to society which will bring about the downfall escalating and illegal military intervention“ operate in immediate proximity to Russia of Putin‘s system. For at the latest at the is condemned „in the strongest terms“202 In outside of NATO territory – in countries point when the Kremlin begins to consider spite of all reassurances to the contrary, this such as Georgia or even the Ukraine. the sanctions a preparatory step towards means in fact that NATO is terminating the starting a „coloured revolution“ in Russia NATO-Russia Founding Act of 1997, in which This „Spearhead“ is being built up under as well, an escalation of the situation of it is stated: „NATO and Russia do not consid- Germany‘s leadership, with 2,700 Bun- much greater dimensions than up to now er each other as adversaries.“203 This means deswehr soldiers to participate. The German will have to be expected. Even if for the that the „Readiness Action Plan“ opens up defence ministry proudly announces that time being, such a scenario appears to be a new chapter: the days in which policies Germany has a „key role“ in NATO‘s spear- relatively distant, the tensed-up situation hostile to Russia were at least clothed in head force.207 But also in general terms, is already seriously dangerous, as any little warm, friendly words are over, now a phase Germany is currently playing a central part spark, any kind of small misunderstanding of open confrontation has begun once within NATO, as for example the govern-

43 ment advisors of Stiftung Wissenschaft und types, e.g. Scud-D ballistic ground-to-ground Yet the ultimate area with the greatest po- Politik emphasise: „At the summit in Wales missiles, left no doubt that Bothnia was sup- tential for escalation is the military element. in September, 2014, the NATO states in posed to be Russia. Shortly before the end Considering all the manoeuvres – which reaction to the Ukraine crisis have decided of the exercise, NATO ensured that Bothnia are also being intensified massively by the on the Alliance‘s most profound military was unable to create a fait accompli situa- Russian side – the danger of an accident adaptation since the end of the Cold War. tion. Before this background, the strategic with unforeseeable consequences is grow- The aim is comprehensive reinforcement watershed created by president Putin by ing rapidly. As early as in November, 2014, and adaptation of its defensive capacities. annexing Crimea was repeatedly pointed out the study „Dangerous Brinkmanship“ by the […] Germany represents the backbone in outside of the actual exercise events.“210 „European Leadership Network“ warned the Alliance‘s military reorientation.“208 In view of such preparations, it is truly that in a number of cases, risky situations worrying that also in Germany, there are had already occurred which could eas- Among the numerous manoeuvres carried voices openly demanding Western military ily have led to a war between Russia and out by NATO since the crisis broke out (see intervention in the Ukraine. For instance, the West.214 At the time the study was the box „General Mobilisation“), several along these lines, military expert Gustav first published, 40 such situations were are based on truly frightening scenarios: Gressel expressed his opinion: „‘The OSCE identified, and a further 27 were added „An article by news portal German-Foreign- mission is an alibi for the West‘s inactivity‘, in its March 2015 update.215 A particular Policy.com (GfP) provides a first impression says Gustav Gressel, a military expert of danger are near-collisions in the air. These of which scenarios form the core of the the European Council on Foreign Relations are becoming more probable also due to aformentioned manoeuvres. Thus in late (ECFR), a think tank for matters of foreign increased NATO activities In eastern Europe, May, 2014, the Marienberg-based Panzer- policy. ‚Therefore a UN mission or an EU-NA- which Russia of course considers necessary grenadierbataillon 371 participated in the TO mission upon request from the Ukraine to counter. Russian news agency Sputnik exercise ‚Reliable Sword‘: ‚According to would be much better. If Russia resists the writes on this matter: „The number of flights information from the Netherlands‘ Ministry first variety in the Security Council, it should overall and those of NATO members‘ air of Defence, it was based on the following be threatened with the EU-NATO mission – forces in the regions directly bordering on scenario: ‚Armed insurgents threaten the se- Moscow would then be prepared to enter Russia and Byelarus has doubled to 3000 curity of a fictitious country. To re-establish into immediate talks in this matter.‘“211 in 2014, Russian ambassador to NATO interior peace, the government has ap- Aleksandr Grushko stated […]. The number pealed to the international community for 5.3 „A Hazardous Game in Full of flights of US reconnaissance planes, help.‘ The scenario primarily consisted of View of a Catastrophe“ he continues, has risen from 22 in 2013 classic airborne assault operations with the to 140 in 2014. AWACS reconnaissance aim of crushing the insurgents‘ resistance It must strike us as outrageous that planes are flying very actively over Roma- by force. Similar operations also took place apparently, large parts of the Western nia, Poland and the Black Sea. In 2014, he at Elverum in Norway in September, 2014, decision-makers are completely ignoring the says, there were 460 AWACS sorties. ‚NATO where parts of the Panzergrenadierbatail- substantial potential for escalation and the should not be surprised that we escort lon 371 were involved in the manoeuvre various options Russia has at its disposal and intercept their planes to investigate ‚Noble Ledger‘. This one was also about to react to the massive attacks on its vital what kind of missions they are engaged military action against separatists who were security interests. As discussed in many in. That even more so as they are taking accused of ‚illegally declaring the independ- contexts, possible Russian countermeasures place close to our borders‘, he added.“216 ence‘ of a province in a fictitious state. The could extend to stopping energy supplies212, clearly visible similarities to the Ukraine but also to an area less attention is paid to, When considering this, it is an even more situation were obviously intentional. As the which is the financial sector. Towards Euro- serious cause for concern that currently Bundeswehr stated, the scenario appeared pean banks, Russia has piled up substantial the entire established arms control sys- ‚very real in the current political context‘“209 liabilities of EUR 128 bn in total. Among tem is about to collapse. This includes these, 37 bn are to French financial institu- termination of the „Treaty on Conven- Also the NATO command post exercise tions, 21 bn to Italian, 14.6 bn to Austrian tional Armed Forces in Europe“ by Russia „Trident Joust“, which took place in mid- and 15 bn to German ones. Should Russia, in March, 2015, with the reason given for October, 2014, is highly revealing: „After as brought into play by Vladimir Putin as a this being the deployment of US soldiers an attack from the north by the country of possible option, decide to radically and uni- and combat vehicles to the Baltic region. Bothnia on the island of Hiiumaa belonging laterally cut these debts as a countermeas- Beyond this, both in the US and in Rus- to Estonia, the objective is to throw back the ure, there would be severe consequences sia, there are influential circles pushing hostile forces. A French and an American for the European banking system, a scenario for a termination of the INF treaty on brigade carry out offensive actions against the newspaper Die Welt explicitly warns intermediate-range nuclear missiles.217 the retreating opponents troops which only against: „Even a national bankruptcy in Rus- continue to fight to delay the advancing sia is no longer excluded. Not necessarily The most threatening prospect, though, units; NATO has air and sea superiority. […] because President Putin can no longer pay is that there are numerous signs of a new The core of the task force employed for its debts – but simpy because he doesn‘t arms race in the area of strategic nuclear exercise purposes on the side of Estonia want to do so any more. In reaction to the weapons – and especially because from was formed by the Nato Response Force economic sanctions which are increasingly certain circles, threats of actually employing (NRF). […] Although the mixture of real and afflicting the country, he might decide to them can be heard once again: „But these fictitious country names required a measure punish his country‘s Western creditors, as are more than verbal duels in the media. of abstraction, the aggressor‘s weaponry the boards of some banks speculate.“213 At the end of March [2015], Russian news

44 General Mobilisation: NATO Manoeuvres

A list of various NATO manoeuvres ■■NOBLE JUMP: 09 to 21 June, 2015: in 2015, based on data published by deployment exercise (DepEx) for parts the blog „Augengeradeaus“, provides of the interim VJTF to Poland (German an insight into the scale of mobilisa- contingent: approx. 350 troops); tion towards the east, even though ■■SIIL 15 – STEADFAST JAVELIN: 06 this does not cover its entire extent: to 12 May, Estonia, with approx. 80 ■■SUMMER SHIELD (LIVEX) in Lat- German troops participating; via, 21 to 31 March, 950 participants, ■■SABER STRIKE 2015: Poland, Estonia, among them about 50 Germans; Latvia, Lithuania, 08 to 20 June, 2015; ■■PERSISTENT PRESENCE 15 (series of ■■IRON WOLF: 08 to 20 June, Lithuania, with manoeuvres all year round in Poland and approx. 400 German troops participating; the Baltics, with German participation); ■■BALTOPS 2015: Baltic Sea, 06 Source: NATO ■■2015 VJTF FUNCTIONS TESTING: per- to 23 June, 2015: naval manoeu- sonnel of various headquarters, 7 to 10 vre headed by the US, with approx. released by the Bundeswehr: including April, alertness exercise for the NATO 500 German troops participating; the German NRF contingent from 2016, Spearhead, the interim Very High Readi- ■■SWIFT RESPONSE: 18 August to 15 Sep- parts of the Gebirgsjägerbataillon 233); ness Joint Task Force. Under partcipation tember, 2015 in Germany, Italy and Bulgaria; ■■IRON SWORD 15: Lithu- of SHAPE, Joint Forces Command Naples, ■■SILVER ARROW: Latvia, 21 to 30 ania, November, with approx. 150 the German-Dutch corps in Münster, as September, with approx. 250 Ger- German troops participating; well as sowie units from Czechia, Ger- man troops participating; ■■COMPACT EAGLE: Poland, 21 to 27 many, the Netherlands and Norway; ■■TRIDENT JUNCTURE 2015: Italy, Portu- November, 2015: Command Post Exer- ■■FALCON VIKING: Munster, in May, gal, Spain, 28 September to 16 October cise/Computer Assisted Exercise (CPX/ deployment exercise for the interim VJTF, (CPX), 21 October to 06 November, 2015 CAX), headed by the North-Eastern Mul- including the German combat unit NATO (Live Exercise), this year‘s major exercise tinational Corps in Sczeczin. (Source: Response Force, at its core the Panzer- for the NATO Response Force (NRF) with Pflüger, Tobias: NATO: Aufrüstung gegen grenadierbataillon 371 from Marienberg; over 25,000 troops (according to details Russland, IMI-Standpunkt 2015/013). agency TASS reports the successful testing been established220, the fact that the situ- be like in future.223 On the other side – al- of a new Russian nuclear missile. It is said ation remains highly dangerous is demon- though certainly with completely differerent to be ready for combat within this year. Part strated by the debate provoked by the US ulterior motives – the argument presented of a large modernisation programme for the about supplying heavy combat equipment on state-owned news channel „Russia Russian nuclear forces. But also The US are to the Ukrainian government. It has been re- Today“ by an RT analyst, the journalist Pepe planning to make their nuclear relics from ported that the Russian side would consider Escobar, is that Germany is faced with the Cold War ready for the future. In the this a „declaration of war“ to which the reply fundamental decisions regarding its future budget plans of the US Congress, 348 billion would be decisive steps towards a global es- course, and due to the need to tap into new dollars have been allocated to the country‘s calation.221 And this is only one of the vari- sales markets, in the long run, the forma- nuclear forces over the next ten years.“218 ous possible scenarios according to which tion of a „Berlin-Moscow-Beijing trade/ the situation could get completely out of commercial axis […] is all but inevitable.“224 The list of near-catastrophes during the Cold control. Thus, one can only agree with his- Advances of this kind on the part of Russia War is already frighteningly long, and today, torian Michael Stürmer, who warned NATO are nothing new, one only needs to recall the danger of an „unintentional“ escalation against continuing in its highly dangerous the already mentioned speech by Vladimir is much greater than in the many years game: „Arms for the Ukraine, NATO mem- Putin before the German parliament in in between. This is even more problem- bership? By enforcing this, the alliance will September 2001, which was interpreted for atic as despite the many near-collisions, overburden itself and intensify the danger of instance by geostrategist Brzezinski – and almost all communication channels have an all-out war. With nuclear weapons casting completely appropriately – as an offer to been cut off. It has been reported that their shadow on everything, this is a hazard- form an anti-US bloc in contrast to the exist- the „Red Telephone“ we remember from ous game in full view of a catastrophe.“222 ing constellation: „One should also remem- Cold War days no longer exists. Hans M. ber Putin‘s call to Germany to create, to- Kristensen of the „Federation of American 5.4 Germany as a „Swing State“? gether with Russia, a European global power Scientists“ warns in this context: „Those which shall be independent of the United responsible here in Washington are baffled If one and the same state is identified by States.“225 From the US point of view, to what extent the communication chan- two camps pitted against each other in such a development would be a nightmare nels have been shut down. Even concern- hostility as the key state in further develop- scenario, and not only in recent times, as – ing what used to be the daily routine.“219 ments, one should take notice of that fact. once again – George Friedman describes: Thus, on the one hand, George Friedman of „So the primordial interest of the United Although it became known in April, 2015 Stratfor named Germany as „the real wild States over which for a century we‘ve fought that a new direct communication channel card“ in trying to determine what relations wars, the First, Second, Cold War, has been between NATO and the Russian military had between the West and Russia are going to the relationship between Germany and Rus-

45 Russia as a Justification for Arms Build-Up

Currently, by referring to Russia, it is possible to justify almost any armaments project, even the most whacky ones. Along these lines, already in April 2014, in refer- ring to the „Russian menace“, Rainer Ar- nold, defence expert of the German social democrats, demanded to maintain a larger battle tank contingent (Spiegel Online, 06 April, 2014). His „wish“ was fulfilled in May, 2015: in future, not 225 as originally planned, but 325 Leopard MBTs will be at the ready to deter Russia. As if that was not enough, just before the decision, Hans Rühle, former head of the defence ministry‘s planning commission piped up, claiming that the Leopard tanks should be supplied with uranium ammunition to ensure sufficient firepower (Die Welt, 26 April, 2015). But the nuclear war games go well beyond such plans, as statements by German main battle tank Leopard 2 A7. Source: tm/Wikipedia Karl-Heinz Kamp, director of the Bunde- sakademie für Sicherheitspolitik (Federal made in connection with a demand to ther increase in his paper. According to his Academy for Security Policy), reveal: „As substantially increase arms spending. It announcements, the 2016 defence budget the conflict with Russia is not a mere spell should be noted, though, that the German is to rise to EUR 34.2 bin, to 34.74 bn the of bad weather, but a fundamental climate military budget has already been raised following year, and to 34.8 bn in 2018, to change, the overall package of deterrence from EUR 23.18 bn (converted) in 2000 to then amount to 35 bn for 2019. One of must be placed in a new context.“ Ac- approx. EUR 33 bn in 2015. Even adjusted the reasons given in the budget proposal cording to him, this refers to conventional for inflation, this is an increase of nearly outline is the conflict with Russia, requir- capacities but also to „the nuclear arms 25%! And this even though a – binding ing „provision of additional funding for (in Europe and in the US)“ (German- – agreement in June 2010 had been to greater NATO involvement and reinforce- Foreign-Policy.com, 13 May, 2015). reduce the budget to EUR 27.6 bn. When ment in the area of defence investments.“ presenting the outline for budget planning (Augengeradeaus, 17 March, 2015) Quite generally, the reference to Russia on 18 February, 2015, finance minister tends to be extremely „profitable“ when Wolfgang Schäuble even announced a fur- sia, because united they are the only force emerge in the Alliance, to mostly pay little Ukraine crisis. As described earlier, already that could threaten us, and to make sure or no attention to the interests of its allies, the matter of whose pet candidate – Ger- that that doesn‘t happen. […] For the United which is resulting in growing annoyance many‘s (Klitschko) or the USA‘s (Yatsenyuk) States, the primordial fear is […] German on the latters‘ part. „Shortly before this – would assume the key positions after the technology and German capital, Russian year‘s Munich Security Conference [2010], regime change in Kiev provoked serious natural resources, Russian manpower as German government advisors are taking quarrels (see Chapter 3.3) As also pointed the only combination that has for centuries account of US global policy since the end of out before, this discord has its actual cause scared the hell out of the United States.“226 the Bush era. At the beginning of his term, in rather different ideas of how the Ukraine President Obama raised great expecta- conflict is „to be dealt with“ further. While In such a context, the continuously recurring tions concerning intense cooperation with the US appear to be prepared to pursue tensions between the US and Germany are Berlin and the EU, as Berlin-based Stiftung the course of escalation against Moscow, in some parts interpreted as an unmistake- Wissenschaft und Politik writes. Yet in fact, Germany seems to be a little more careful in able sign that Germany – at least in the what came to pass was ‚hardly anything this respect. For the latter, in contrast to the medium term, as prognosticised in the „Rus- more than a shift of emphasis‘. Washington US, considerable economic intrests are at sia Today“ article quoted from above – will still assigns ‚multilateralism‘ – code for the stake because of the much higher trade vol- turn away from the US. Indicators for such a German-European aim of assuming an equal ume, with the consequence that also rele- development are seen in the increasing vol- position to the US as a global power – noth- vant parts of the German élites are demand- ume of trade with Russia, China and other ing more than an instrumental role.“227 ing a – slightly – more moderate course.228 „emerging countries“ which are gaining in relevance compared to the US market, or That trans-Atlantic relations have seen bet- More than clearly, these differences rose respectively that it has already been high for ter days has also become very obvious from to the surface in the matter of whether many years. Further, there is the tendency the NSA spying scandal and especially from heavy weaponry was to be supplied to of the US, whenever differences of opinion the open conflicts over the course in the the Ukrainian government, on the occa-

46 sion of the Munich Security Conference tor of the Munich Security Conference: teddy course. Present was, among others, in February, 2015. Immediately before- „Critics have been blaming the Security Assistant Secretary of State for European hand, the USA had kicked off the ball by Conference from the start that it fuels Affairs, Victoria Nuland, who had repeatedly publishing an „expert report“ by three military confrontation rather than promot- drawn attention before with her derogatory important think tanks, drawn up by several ing peace in the world. This time, during remarks about the Allies („Fuck the EU“). former Democrat government members, the run-up to the conference, Ischinger has She supposedly complained noisily about directly before the conference. Its core provided a contribution towards reinforcing „Merkel‘s Moscow stuff“ and demanded to arguments were in favour of delivering this preconception. On [German TV channel] assert the aggressive US course against not just „merely“ non-lethal equipment ZDF, he advocated ‚an announcement of the EU allies: „They‘re afraid of damage to as before to the Ukraine, but also offen- possible arms supplies‘ to the Ukraine, to their economy, counter-sanctions from the sive weapons systems, to the amount of push Russia into exerting stronger influ- Russians. […] We can fight against the Euro- US$ 3 bn between 2015 and 2017.229 ence on the separatists. He characterised peans, rhetorically fight against them.“237 according contemplations in the USA as Of course, the previously supplied „non- ‚important‘ and ‚appropriate‘. ‚Sometimes It is hardly feasible that this announcement lethal support“ to some extent also provided you need pressure to push for peace‘.“234 of wanting to make use of the Security a basis for offensive operations230, but it Conference to stew the Germans until they is self-evident that the new plans would However at least at that point, among the abandon their refusal of arms supplies was have meant taking the next step towards German government there was no majority not approved by the top dog, i.e. the US the top of the escalation ladder. This can for this demand, and both president. Even if that was not directly the be gleaned, for instance, from a report in and Frank-Walter Steinmeier clearly rejected case, it is still Obama who appears to want the Bild-Zeitung arguing that it was about it publically at the Security Conference. to continue leaving it up to explicit hardliner more than „just“ arms supplies, that this is German newspaper Die Welt summarised Nuland to determine US policy in this con- about the danger of direct confrontation: the German Chancellor‘s answer to an flict. Whatever the background: obviously „Risky: The intended weapons and systems enquiry in the following way: „‘The problem the US side did not manage to prevail in this are so technically sophisticated that US is that I cannot imagine any situation in matter. For the time being, they refrained soldiers would presumably have to train which improved equipment of the Ukrainian from supplying heavy hardware, which, the Ukrainian army. This way, the US would army can contribute towards a resolution‘, as it was most likely intended by the US, get involved in the conflict with their own says Merkel. She states that the idea of would have been perceived by the Russians troops.“231 Shortly after publication of the getting the Ukrainian army into a position as a severe escalation step and answered expert report, communiqués surfaced that of being able to stand up to the superior with appropriate countermeasures. In such also among the US government, a change of opponent merely by supplying arms is an circumstances, the prospective ceasefire opinion had happened: US foreign secretary illusion. ‚This cannot be won by military negotiations would have been condemned John Kerry as well as chairman of the US means‘‚ Merkel repeated, vehemently to failure. Instead, with the relevant media- Joint Chiefs of Staff Martin Dempsey and this time, ‚that is the bitter truth‘.“235 tion coming from Germany, on 12 February, also President Barack Obama‘s security As this was not at all what the hardliners 2015, the so-called Minsk-II agreement was advisor Susan Rice were now prepared flown in from the US wanted to hear, influ- concluded, temporarily easing the situation to seriously consider arms supplies.232 ential Republican US senator John McCain and leading to a ceasefire, albeit a shaky launched a boisterous rant against Merkel‘s one under constant threat of failing again. Prepared by such groundwork, the US statements: „When the Chancellor says that delegation travelled to Munich and loudly we should by no means supply arms to the Also since then, Berlin has been endeav- gave emphasis to this demand with a Ukrainians so that they can defend them- ouring, to some extent very explicitly, to chorus of voices. In slightly labyrinthine selves and won‘t be slaughtered, then she is counter attempts by the US side to further formulations, but unmistakeably, US vice terribly wrong and I am of a totally different fuel the smouldering conflict. Thus in early president Joseph Biden expressed himself opionion than she is. […] And if someone Mach, 2015, when the Office of the German as follows: „Too many times President seriously refuses to give the Ukrainians the Chancellor rather undiplomatically more or Putin has promised peace, and delivered possibility of self-defence and then wants less accused US general Breedlove of war- tanks, troops, and weapons. So we will an apology from me, then I reply: Tell me mongering. Spiegel Online commented on continue to provide Ukraine with security what I should apologise for? Shouldn‘t the matter: „Remarks by NATO‘s command- assistance, not to encourage war but to you rather apologise to the families of the er in chief on the Ukraine conflict meet with allow Ukraine to defend itself. Let me be 5,000 Ukrainians who were slaughtered criticism from several Allies, among them clear: We do not believe there is a military by the Russians? […] One might think she Germany. According to information provided solution in Ukraine. But let me be equally has no idea or she doesn‘t care that people to the SPIEGEL, General Philip Breedlove is clear: We do not believe Russia has the are being slaughtered in Ukraine.“236 accused by relevant circles in the capitals right to do what they‘re doing. We believe to have portrayed Russia‘s military role in we should attempt an honourable peace. In this context, a further article in the Bild- eastern Ukraine since the crisis broke out in But we also believe the Ukrainian people Zeitung might be insightful, according to an exaggerated manner. At the Chancellor‘s have a right to defend themselves.“233 which on the evening of the first conference Office, the term used is actually ‚dangerous day, a meeting of the US delegation appar- propaganda‘. Foreign minister Frank-Walter In Germany, though, only a few picked up on ently took place where testy complaints Steinmeier has therefore personally inter- this sharp volley from Washington – though were uttered about the German govern- vened by addressing NATO Secretary Gen- among them was Wolfgang Ischinger, direc- ment‘s supposed cuddle-up-to-the-Russian- eral Jens Stoltenberg about the matter.“238

47 fundamental matters, i.e. the attitude that Russia is supposed to dance to the West- ern tune, there is a consensus. Regarding this issue, Washington prefers to rattle its sabre, while Berlin would rather adopt a gentler tone for as long as it seems feasible. Though in case that fails to be „successful“, the German government will most likely fall back in line with a course of escalation. One can hardly interpret the „Leitgedanken zur Russlandpolitik“ („Principles of a Policy Towards Russia“) published in late March 2015 by Karsten Voigt, the German govern- ment‘s US coordinator until 2010, in any other way: „Putin‘s Russia does not want to be recognised as the country it is today, but as what it once was: an empire. The ambitions to maintain and regain spheres of influence is seen by most of its neighbours as Russian revisionism. […] If the Russian administration and the separatists fail to The chief negotiators of the US (Dan Mullaney) and the EU (Ignacio Garcia Bercero) during the keep to the Minsk agreements, the US and sixth round of negotiations on the TTIP, 14 to 18 July, 2014 in Brussels. (Source: European some European NATO countries will begin Union) to support the Ukraine by military means. Always considering all the risks, it is accept- The crucial question is how to evaluate constellation of its interests. And these very able for German politics to oppose military these quarrels, and three conclusions interests and the anti-Russian policy derived support to the Ukraine. But one should not should be considered as relevant in this: from them were factors which seriously con- deny that the Ukraine‘s desire to improve tributed towards the catastropic escalation its defence capacity is completely legiti- First, the notion, also cultivated in parts of the situation in the first place, a situation mate. The argument over tactical means of the peace movement, that in regard which now requires great efforts to maybe should not endanger the joint strategy with to policies concerning the Ukraine – and stabilise it again. Part of the picture here is regard to Russia. Also in future, Germany also in other respects – Germany acts as also the prominent part Germany has been should not adopt a policy towards Mos- nothing more than an agent of Washington playing since the crisis broke out in terms cow which would ignore the interests of is downright ludicrous. It is certainly not of NATO‘s mobilisation against Russia. its eastern and western neighbours.“241 the case that Germany is being dragged across the diplomatic stage by the nose And finally, third, the significance of the It appears that from that perspective, su- ring the US have fitted it with. Germany conflict of interests between the US and perordinate interests exist which are an ob- has identifiable and from a capitalist point Germany should not be overrated, even stacle to any de-escalation. They represent of view comprehensible interests which to though they are clearly identifiable. They are the trans-Atlantic bond, which with a certain some extent differ from those of the US, a kind of second-rate conflict of interests, of degree of probability makes a permanent and is apparently prepared and capable a tactical rather than strategic nature. This alliance with the US seem more attrac- to assert them in opposition to Washing- is also due to the fact that in comparison tive to the German élites than a gradual ton – at least sometimes, as the matter of to the volume of trade with the US, trade approach towards the BRICS countries.242 arms supplies demonstrates. And even the with Russia clearly lags behind. In 2013, cases where this is unsuccessful, as in the goods to the amount of EUR 35.8 bn went 5.5 State Capitalism vs. Neoliberalism selection of personnel for the Ukrainian to Russia, while in the same year, goods to transitional government, are no conclusive the amount of EUR 89.4 bn were exported Growing conflicts with Russia, but also the proof that it is sufficient for Washington to the US (compared to EUR 65.5 bn in general tendencies towards bloc formation to pull a few levers and in Germany, the 2010). And while Russia trade took a dive – the West vs. BRICS – in the international political puppets immediately start their in 2014 (EUR 29.3 bn), this was more than system have been evident for several years dance to the tune played by the US. compensated for by exports to the US (EUR now. This is based on the simple fact that 96 bn)239: „Since the Ukraine conflict and within only a few years, a dramatic shift Second, it is certainly to be welcomed that the fracking boom, a shift in the balance of has taken place in the international bal- the German government has rejected the foreign trade can be identified for Germany ance of power, with the consequence that demands to supply offensive weapons and which – if it continues – will further weaken the centuries-long Western hegemony has successfully pushed for a ceasefire agree- relations with Russia and strengthen the eroded quite seriously: „The share of the G7 ment to be concluded (Minsk-II). However, traditional ties to the USA once again.“240 countries – the traditional power centres – one should not exaggerate in showering the of the global GDP has decreased from 66.4 German government with praise, as its at- Yet the alliance has a much more solid % in the year 2000 to 46.4 % in 2013 […], titude and actions simply correspond to the basis than merely a large trade volume: in while the share of the BRICS countries has

48 Global Rebalancing: G7 and BRICS shares of world GDP in Percent

... by nominal GDP ... by purchasing power parity 2000 2013 2000 2013 world GDP: USD 31.9 trillion world GDP: USD 71.7 trillion world GDP: USD 31.9 trillion world GDP: USD 71.7 trillion 66.4 %

USA 30.7 % Japan 14.7 % Germany 6.0 % UK 4.7 % France 4.9 % Italy 3.4 % 46.5 % Canada 2.0 % 45.7 %

USA 22.7 % USA 21.8 % Japan 6.6 % Japan 7.2 % 37.5 % Germany 4.9 % Germany 4.9 % UK 3.4 % UK 3.4 % France 3.6 % USA 19.3 % France 3.3 % Japan 5.4 % Italy 2.8 % Italy 3.1 % 28.4 % China 3.8 % Canada 2.4 % Germany 3.7 % Brazil 1.9 % Canada 2.0 % UK 2.7 % India 1.6 % 21.5 % France 2.6 % Russia 0.9 % Italy 2.1 % South Africa 0.4 % 15.8 % Canada 1.7 %

China 12.4 % China 6.9 % China 16.1 % 8.6 % Brazil 3.0 % Brazil 3.3 % Brazil 2.8 % India 2.6 % India 2.6 % India 5.9 % Russia 3.0 % Russia 2.4 % Russia 2.9 % South Africa 0.5 % South Africa 0.6 % South Africa 0.7 % G7 BRICS G7 BRICS G7 BRICS G7 BRICS risen from 8.6 % to 21.5 % within the same appears to be a majority in favour of the joint product of all US secret services, not period. The USA experienced a decline from second position. As a result, at the latest only a severe decline of the US in terms of 30.7 % to 22.7 %, Japan shrank from 14.7 since 2008, numerous high-profile consulta- power politics was predicted – for the first % to 6.6 %, Germany went down from 6.0 tion groups have been assembled to develop time – but also intensifying geopolitical % to 4.9 %. China gained the most, almost strategies, all of which led to the conclusion conflicts going as far as an emergence of quadrupling its share in the global GDP that in face of the threat to its hegemony, direct military engagement with rising pow- within the last 13 years. Russia was able it is imperative for „the West“ to cooperate ers such as China and Russia.246 Also in that to triple its share. According to purchasing more closely and courageously in defence period, the European Union‘s Institute for power parities, the G7 countries put up 300 of its „values“ in future. Further, that it is Security Studies arrived at the result that % more than the BRICS countries in 2000, also necessary to set aside existing conflicts Western hegemony will be subject to seri- while in 2013, the amount was a mere 25 of interest and regulate them amicably.244 ous challenges. In this context, the principal % more. The United Nations Development EU think tank also explicitly pointed out the, Program, UNDP, assesses this develop- To provide just one of the many exam- once again, increasing convergence with ment as follows: ‚The rise of the South has ples of the time, here is a quote by Daniel assessments on the part of the US as rep- taken place at an unequalled speed and Korski of the European Council on Foreign resented in „Global Trends 2025“.247 In Ger- on an unprecedented scale. Never before Relations: „the US and Europe are the many, the foreign-intelligence service Bun- in history have so many people‘s living best allies they‘ve each got. Yes, they have desnachrichtendienst (BND) was instructed conditions and prospects for the future similar traditions, share values and have a to draw up a study on the effects of the changed so dramatically and quickly.‘“243 history of cooperation behind them. Yes, economic and financial crisis on the global those interests are not always the same. balance of power, intended to serve as an The decisive question in this context is what But most importantly, the US and Europe orientation guideline for future activities steps have been and will need to be taken are on the same side of today‘s geopoliti- to the German élites: „In mid-April [2009], globally in consideration of the rather swift cal dividing line: both are declining pow- Ernst Uhrlau, head of the BND, reported to erosion of the West‘s position of supremacy. ers with a shared, vested interest in the the Office of the President and presented To put it in a simplified way, there were and liberal status quo. […] Together, the US his analysis on the effects of the situation to still are two schools of thought: one calling and Europe can help manage and perhaps Federal President Horst Köhler. Expressions for a gradual transition to a multi-polar even mitigate their collective decline. used at Schloss Bellevue translator‘s note: world where power and influence are redis- Alone, however, both will be hunted.“245 Bellevue Palace, the German president‘s tributed according to the changing situation; official residence in Berlin on that occasion and one insisting on aggressively defending A ground-breaking occurrence in this were ‚a metamorphosis of geopolitics‘ and Western hegemony. Especially in the US, but context was the publication of „Global ‚a world which after this crisis will no longer also in the EU and Germany, there currently Trends 2025“ in November, 2008. In this be the same, also politically‘. The central

49 message to the German government was: in Era of Confrontation“: „Bitter multi-level the big free-trade agreements of the US and the foreseeable future, Europe and America competition – economic, geopolitical and the EU will not provoke any kind of reaction. will come under political pressure, competi- ideological – will become another charac- If TTIP and TPP are implemented, reactions tion with China will intensify, and Beijing teristic of the New Era of Confrontation. especially from the emerging countries are will be one of the most likely profiteers.“248 Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov to be expected. The BRIC countries will not has formulated this peculiarity of the new sit idly by and observe the fragmentation of There are two questions which immediately world in the following way: ‚The paradigm the global trade order, but instead, will initi- arise from this: in these strategy papers, of contemporary international relations is ate their own large-scale projects. […] The why does the competition between „the determined by competition in the broad- Wests‘s inability to comprehend economic established powers“ and „the contenders“ est sense of this notion, particularly when and political models beyond capitalism appear to be so extremely irreconcile- the object of competition is value systems and democracy has meanwhile become a able that the danger of military conflict is and development models. The novelty of liability. The Western liberal democracy is expected to grow? And why is it assumed this situation is that the West is losing its now confronted with a new rival in the form that the US and the EU/Germany more monopoly on the globalisation process. of Chinese- or Russian-style authoritarian or less share the same fate in this and, This, perhaps, explains attempts to present capitalism. Today, the Wests‘s answer to inseparably tied together, are forced to the current developments as a threat to these new competitors in terms of trade fight for their „values“? An answer can be the West, its values and way of life.‘“251 policy is exclusion and discrimination. This found in „Global Trends 2025“, namely that is not just an unfortunate development, fundamentally different ideas of „the rules The not-all-that-new conflict between the but also a dangerous step backwards. For to the game of global economy“ exist: „For neoliberal „heartland“ and the state-capi- this way, a new major geostrategic con- the most part, China, India and Russia are talist „contenders“252 therefore results from flict is backed up by a trade policy.“255 not following the Western liberal model for fundamentally different notions of economic self-development but instead are using a order as well as from the failed attempts to Considering such a background, the different model: ‚state capitalism‘. State integrate the rivals into the neoliberal bloc. demands for a „Western renaissance“ as capitalism is a loose term used to describe In reaction to this development, the „Trans- put forward by the circles surrounding the a system of economic management that Atlantic Trade and Investment Partnership“ conservative EPP faction in the EU Parlia- gives a prominent role to the state. […] (TTIP) is aimed at forging an alliance of the ment are understandable: „German foreign Rather than emulating Western Western „neoliberal West“ and steadfastly position- policy experts call for a ‚renaissance‘ of the models of political and economic develop- ing this alliance against the „state-capitalist trans-Atlantic alliance in defence of Western ment, more countries may be attracted to bloc“. Thus, an analysis of the agreement‘s global hegemony. In future, the EU will have China‘s alternative development model.“249 geopolitical effects and objectives finds to cooperate more closely with the United that it is quite generally concerned with States once more despite certain differ- In the only detailed description in the „a reformation and reinforcement of the ences, they demand in a strategy paper aforementioned BND paper referring to Western power bloc against rivals such authored by two German representatives the future constellation of global politi- as China or Russia“ and especially with and recently published by the think tank of cal power and conflict, an almost identi- „defining and consolidating global neoliberal the European Popular Party (EPP). It states cal threat analysis can be found: „Politics standards in order to find a more advanta- that the ‚liberal world order‘ which since the should therefore emphatically involve itself geous position for [the West‘s] own model end of the Cold War has secured the West- in such contemplations on the balance of of order in opposition to the supposedly ern countries‘ global supremacy can only geopolitical crises. For it is obvious that rampant ‚state capitalist‘ system.“253 be maintained if Europe and North America at this point, not all possible effects of once again move closer together – eco- the economic crisis have been included Peter van Ham of the Dutch „Clingendael In- nomically, politically and in military terms. in such contemplations. This [especially] titute“ also shares this evaluation: „The main Any attempts to cooperate more closely applies to the ideological struggle between reason why the European Union and the with Russia should be discontinued.“256 democracies and autocracies over who United States have embraced the ambitious can offer the more attractive model for the goal of achieving a Transatlantic Trade and Such phrases are informative in the respect future development of societies. An entire Investment Partnership (TTIP) is geopoliti- that they further solidify the impression that generation of Western-oriented govern- cal in nature. The rise of China (and other the only serious difference between the ment leaders in developing countries Asian countries), combined with the relative assessments by US and by German intel- could be forced into a defensive position decline of the US and the economic malaise ligence services, which was still present a if, despite painful reforms, their countries of the euro zone, is spurring the transatlan- few years ago, apparently no longer exists are plunged into economic turmoil.“250 tic West to use its combined economic and nowadays. While in Global Trends 2025 of political preponderance to write new global 2008, Russia was primarily treated as a Thus, during a phase in which the economic trade rules reflecting its economic principles rival, the Bundesnachrichtendienst in its and financial crisis has destroyed what little (rules-based market economy) and political assessment of the same period considered credibility the neoliberal economic order values (liberal democracy). TTIP is an es- the country a potential prize. According had left, China and Russia are fundamen- sential component of this new strategy.“254 to the German analysis, the prospects of tally challenging the rules of economic integrating Russia into a Western bloc in policy with their alternative model. Already Also in this way, already existing tendencies opposition to China were good.257 The man- in 2007, Sergei Karaganov, a leading towards bloc formation are reinforced even ner in which the Ukraine crisis was dealt Russian politologist, predicted a „New further: „It would be an error to assume that with suggests that meanwhile, Russian

50 integration is considered less probable, Chinese-language media commissioned its Reader Sicherheitspolitik, the German or that Russia is simply seen as less of a by the Sunday Times found statements Bundeswehr (Armed Forces) comments desirable alliance partner nowadays – which by navy and army officers predicting a on the matter: „The BRICS group has thus makes it all the more likely that an opposing military showdown as well as political generally matured into an actor to be taken Russian-Chinese bloc may actually form. leaders who demand that China should seriously. There are some indications that it sell more arms to America‘s enemies.“261 may develop non only into a non-Western, 5.6 A Chinese-Russian Alliance? but even into a post-Western alliance – and Apart from this aspect, there is also a thereby become a challenge to the West and Due to the – indeed existing – range of con- material basis for a Sino-Russian alliance its model of global order. […] Several times flicts of interest between China and Russia, in the form of the significant bilateral trade already, the BRICS countries have managed some observers consider a close alliance volume.262 Indeed, especially since the to convert their self-confidence, and their to be formed by the two countries to be Ukraine crisis began, numerous pointers in connected potential for mobilising emerg- highly unlikely.258 However, in Russia, one is such a direction have become evident: to ing and developing countries, into concrete aware of the fact that this is not about any name only a few, for instance, in May, 2014, vetoing power. For instance, this was the equal partnership anyway, but about where the informal exclusion of China from invest- case at the 2009 world climate summit in the country‘s interests will be treated with ment into Russian infrastructure projects Copenhagen, during the Doha Round of greater respect in a role as junior partner. was ended. A particularly sensitive matter is the WTO, most recently on Bali in 2013, or And already years ago, this question was that restrictions concerning the sale of high- during the Crimean crisis in March 2014, answered relatively clearly, as Russian tech military hardware to China have been when the BRICS foreign ministers prevented scientist Sergei Karaganov points out: „It lifted – an issue that had been rejected for Russia‘s diplomatic isolation by means of is quite obvious, at least to me, that the a long time. Accordingly, in April, 2015, Rus- a declaration criticising the West.“267 Euro-Atlantic civilization, which seemed to sia began to sell modern missiles: „As the have finally won, in the new world is lagging first country, China has purchased modern somewhat behind China and other Asian Russian long-range air defence missile countries which have turned out to be the systems of the S-400 type. The record deal true winners of the Cold War. […] Against has an estimated volume of at least US$ 1.5 the background of these changes, America’s billion. Many countries are striving to buy geopolitical positions and its claims to this weapon, which has no match world- sole leadership have sharply deteriorated wide. Though up to now, S-400 has only – thanks to Iraq, Pakistan, Afghanistan and been supplied to the Russian army.“263 Also, the economic crisis. These positions can negotiations on an agreement to deliver gas and will be restored only partially. […] Faced to China with a volume of approx. US$ 400 with the impossibility of its advantageous bn, which had been dragging on for over and equal accession to the Euro-Atlantic 10 years because of disagreements over space, Russia is drifting fast towards prior- the prices, were completed in 2014, and itizing cooperation with China – even if as a in acceptance of the Chinese conditions, ‘younger brother’, although a respected one. soon after the Ukraine crisis broke out.264 In addition, China quite pragmatically does not focus on differences in values, although It comes as no surprise therefore that these differences are great. The ‘Asian the findings of an analysis by the Euro- choice’ of today is not the same as the Eura- pean Council on Foreign Relations reveals sian choice of the past. It looks like a choice that due to the Ukraine crisis, an alliance in favor of a rapidly rising civilization.“259 between the two countries has become more likely, and that such a development It is an obvious thing that Western „treat- should be prevented if possible: „If the ment“ of the Ukraine conflict is speeding trend is sustainable, Russia will turn into up this trend, as in its course, the degree China‘s junior partner.“265 In this context, it of rejection of the West among the Russian is consistent what journalist Pepe Esco- population has grown to record propor- bar stated in his April 2015 report, that a tions. Surveys conducted in January 2015 high-level EU source confirmed that on the provided that 81% see the US in a negative part of the Germans, a vigorous approach light (13% positive). Almost as high is the was made towards China to attempt to percentage of people who have a scepti- persuade Beijing to distance itself from cal attitude towards the EU (20% positive). Russia.266 At the moment, though, there Before the Ukraine crisis, „merely“ 44% is not much to be found in support of the were sceptical of the US and 34% of the thought that such an attempt might be suc- EU.260 China‘s population has a similarly cessful. Especially because the closer ties negative view of the West: „Almost 55% of between China and Russia are developing [Chinese] interviewees agree ‚that a Cold in the context of obvious endeavours on War will break out between the US and the part of the BRICS countries to estab- China‘. An independent investigation of lish a power counterweight to the West. In

51 Beteiligte, Berlin 2014, p. 145. only. No directly corresponding 199. So hart treffen Russland die article in English available.) Sanktionen, Die Welt, 01 Feb, 2015. 217. Nassauer, Otfried: Raketentests gegen den 200. Jane’s Intelligence Review, Issue INF-Vertrag, Das Blättchen, 16 Feb, 2015. 2/15, as quoted in: griephan Briefe, 218. Atomkrieg in Europa? Die Rückkehr 09/15, 19 February 2015, p. 3. der nuklearen Gefahr, Monitor 201. Monthly press conference by NATO No. 674, 09 April, 2015. Secretary General Anders Fogh 219. Ibid. Rasmussen, NATO.int, 20 May, 2014. 220. Rotes Telefon zwischen NATO 202. Wales Summit Declaration, und russischem Militär, Neues Sections 1 and 16. Deutschland, 03 May, 2015. 203. A further statement in the NATO-Russia Act 221. Russia Would See U.S. Moves to Arm reads: “NATO reiterates that in the current Ukraine as Declaration of War, The and foreseeable security environment, Moscow Times, 09 Feb, 2015. the Alliance will carry out its collective 222. 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Russland eine “Bedrohung für Russisches Bündnis muss unbedingt euroatlantische Sicherheit”, Frankfurter verhindert werden - US-Denkfabrik Allgemeine Zeitung, 31 Aug, 2014. STRATFOR: Excerpts from a contribution 206. Wales Summit Declaration, Section 8. by George Friedman at a conference of 207. NATO-Speerspitze: Schlüsselrolle für the “Chicago Council on Global Affairs” 190. Deutsch-Russisches Bündnis muss Deutschland, bmvg.de, 05 Feb, 2015. on 04. February, 2015: https://www. unbedingt verhindert werden - US- 208. Major, Claudia: Die strategische Anpassung youtube.com/watch?v=ZzrsDZ8Uo8M) Denkfabrik STRATFOR, Excerpts from der Nato. Deutschland ist das Rückgrat 224. What the BRICS plus Germany are really a contribution by George Friedman für die militärische Neuaufstellung der up to?, Russia Today, 27 February, 2015. at a conference of the “Chicago Allianz, SWP-Aktuell, February 2015. 225. Brzezinski, Zbigniew: Eine neue Council on Global Affairs” on 04. 209. 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Rühle, Michael/Grubliauskas, February, 2015: https://www.youtube. muss den Dialog mit der russischen Julijus: Energy as a Tool of Hybrid com/watch?v=ZzrsDZ8Uo8M Zivilgesellschaft intensivieren, Warfare, NATO Defence College, 227. Deklassierungsängste (II), German- in: Internationale Politik, May/ Research Paper, April 2015. Foreign-Policy.com, 29 Jan, 2010. The June 2014, pp. 8-15, p. 10. 213. Europas Großbanken zittern um ihr Geld quote in there is from: Thimm, Johannes: 194. Ibid., p. 15. in Russland, Die Welt, 17 Dec, 2014. Ein Jahr Außenpolitik unter Obama. 195. Dreyer, Iana/Popescu, Nicu: Do 214. Frear, Thomas u.a.: Dangerous Rückkehr zum Multilateralismus?, sanctions against Russia work?, Brinkmanship: Close Military Encounters SWP-Arbeitspapier, January, 2010. ISS Brief, No. 35/2014. Between Russia and the West in 228. See for instance the list of prominent 196. Fischer, Sabine: EU-Sanktionen gegen 2014, European Leadership Network, signatories of a petition for a more Russland. Ziele, Wirkung und weiterer Policy Brief, November 2014. moderate Ukraine policy: “Wieder Umgang, SWP-Aktuell, March 2015, p. 6. 215. Russia – West Dangerous Brinkmanship Krieg in Europa? Nicht in unserem 197. Jäger, Thomas: Lösung des Ukraine- Continues, European Leadership Namen!”, Die Zeit, 05 Dec, 2014. Konflikts eher zweitrangig, Focus Network, 12 March, 2015. 229. Ivo Daalder, Michele Flournoy, John online, 21 April, 2014. 216. Moskau: Nato-Aktivitäten an Russlands Herbst, Jan Lodal, Steven Pifer, James 198. Lauterbach, Reinhard: Bürgerkrieg in Grenzen erheblich zugenommen, Stavridis, Strobe Talbott and Charles Wald: der Ukraine. Geschichte, Hintergründe, Sputnik, 16 April, 2015. (In German “Preserving Ukraine’s Independence,

52 Resisting Russian Aggression: What neue deutsche Weltpolitik und ihre Strategic Studies, March, 2009, p. 25) the United States and NATO Must Do”, Stützen, Cologne, 2015, p. 95. 251. Karaganov, Sergei: A New Epoch of The Brookings Institution, The Atlantic 241. Voigt, Karsten: Leitgedanken zur Confrontation, in: Russia in Global Council, and The Chicago Council on Russlandpolitik. Wir brauchen Affairs, Nr. 4, October-December 2007. Global Affairs, February, 2015. Zusammenarbeit und Gefahrenabwehr, 252. The terms are attributed to: Pijl, Kees 230. Thus, for instance, Otfried Nassauer Internationale Politik und van der: Global Rivalries, London, 2006, pointed out in Deutschlandfunk (“Öl in Gesellschaft, 30 March, 2015. who also traces the conflict back through das Feuer dieses Konfliktes, 02 Feb, 242. BRICS is an acronym for Brazil, Russia, history and places it in a broader context. 2015): “They [the Ukrainian government India, China and South Africa. 253. Schumacher, Tim: Geopolitischer troops] also got similar equipment for the 243. Schuhler, Conrad: Veränderung der Sprengstoff: Die militärisch- detection of mortars, among the non- globalen Kräfteverhältnisse – ökonomisch, machtpolitischen Hintergründe lethal, non-killing systems. They can detect politisch, militärisch, isw, 02 Aug, 2014. des TTIP, IMI-Studie 2014/05. mortars nowadays, whereas they can’t 244. Wagner, Jürgen: Metamorphose der 254. van Ham, Peter: The Geopolitics of detect more distant missile launchers, Geopolitik, IMI-Studie 2010/06. the TTIP, Clingendael Policy Brief, at a distance of 30, 40 kilometres 245. Daniel Korski: Partners in Decline, No 23, October, 2013, p 1. they can’t detect missile launchers, European Council on Foreign 255. Dieter, Heribert: Das Ende des and that’s what they’re supposed to Relations, 02 March, 2010. handelspolitischen Multilateralismus, be able to do in future as well.” 246. National Intelligence Council: Global Internationale Politik und 231. Was US-Politiker WIRKLICH über Trends 2025: A Transformed World, Gesellschaft, 04 May, 2015. die Deutschen in der Ukraine-Krise November, 2008. From then on, the 256. Die Renaissance des Westens (I), German- denken, Bild-Zeitung, 08 Feb, 2015. assessment of severe US power loss was Foreign-Policy.com, 07 May, 2015. 232. USA erwägen doch Waffenlieferungen an to be found in nearly every publication 257. “It is debatable whether in case of such die Ukraine, Die Welt, 02 Feb, 2015. by military and strategic circles: cf. a development, Russia will turn more 233. Biden, Joseph: Remarks by the Vice Cronin, Patrick M. (Ed.): Global Strategic towards the West, as assumed in the BND President at the Munich Security Assessment 2009: America’s security simulation, in order to avoid being given Conference, February 07, 2015. role in a changing World, Institute for the role of junior partner to an aspiring 234. Ischinger befürwortet Waffenlieferungen, National Strategic Studies, Washington, China. After all, what can also be imagined Stuttgarter Zeitung, 04 Feb, 2015. D.C., 2009; Denmark, Abraham M./ that Moscow might return to making louder 235. Erschöpfte Kanzlerin will Frieden schaffen Mulvenon, James (Ed.): Contested nationalistic noises and offensively lean ohne Waffen, Die Welt, 07 Feb, 2015. Commons: The Future of American Power towards Beijing.” (Rinke, 2009, p. 41) Just as clearly, German foreign minister in a Multipolar World, Center for a New 258. Nye, Joseph: A New Sino-Russian Alliance?, Steinmeier spoke out against such American Security, January, 2010. Project Syndicate, 12 Jan, 2015. arms supplies: “It is thus right for us to 247. Grevi, Giovanni: Scanning the future. 259. Karaganov, Sergei: Russia in Euro-Atlantic consider and carefully weigh up a broad American and European perspectives, Space, solon-line, 11 Dec, 2009. range of courses of action. Some view ISS Policy Brief, December, 2008. 260. Lipman, Maria: How Russia has supplying weapons to Ukraine – a form 248. Unheimliche Parallelen, Der come to loathe the West, ECFR of targeted counter-escalation – as a Spiegel, 29 April, 2009. Commentary, 13 March, 2015. feasible, or even necessary path. To 249. National Intelligence Council 261. Sheridan, Michael: China’s hawks me, it not only involves great risk but is 2008, pp. vii; iv. demand cold war on the US, The counterproductive.” (Speech by Minister of 250. Rinke, Andreas: Metamorphose der Sunday Times, 07 Feb, 2010. Foreign Affairs Steinmeier at the Munich Geopolitik. Wie die Finanzkrise das 262. China and Russia vs. the United States? Security Conference 2015, 08 Feb, 2015) internationale Kräfteverhältnis verändert, The Diplomat, 02 March, 2015. 236. Die CDU sollte sich bei den ukrainischen in: Internationale Politik, Juni 2009, 263. Russland exportiert erstmals sein Familien entschuldigen, Bild-Zeitung, 06 pp. 38 – 43, p. 43. A report on a trans- Raketenabwehrsystem S-400 – China Feb, 2015. (Quotes by John McCain are Atlantic experts’ meeting anonymously erster Kunde, Sputnik, 13 April, 2015. (In not necessarily the original wording, as quotes a participant who summarised the German only: no exactly corresponding they were translated back into English from assessment of the majority of participants article in English available) the German translation in Bild-Zeitung.) as follows: “I believe we will witness an 264. The Significance of the China-Russia Gas 237. Was US-Politiker WIRKLICH über die increasingly tough competition about Deal, The Diplomat, 24 May, 2014. Deutschen in der Ukraine-Krise denken, who sets the rules of politics in the 21st 265. Gabuev, Alexander: A “Soft Alliance”? Bild-Zeitung, 08 Feb, 2015. (Quote by century and what should be the founding Russia-China Relations After the Ukraine Victoria Nuland is not necessarily the principles for the rules of international Crisis, ECFR Policy Brief, February, 2015, original wording, as it was translated politics. The OECD world which had more p. 1. Also see: New Russia-China alliance back into English from the German or less the monopoly in this game in the latest diplomatic, strategic blow to Obama, translation in Bild-Zeitung.) past will be challenged in particular by Washington Times, 30 April, 2015. 238. Ukraine-Krise: Nato-Oberbefehlshaber authoritarian regimes that have enough 266. Escobar, Pepe: Eurasian emporium or verärgert Alliierte, Spiegel economic, financial and thus also political nuclear war?, Asia Times, 06 April, 2015. Online, 07 March, 2015. power to go their own way.” (Kortweg, 267. Gegenmodell zum Westen? Ambitionen 239. Statistisches Bundesamt: Außenhandel Rem/Podkolinski, Richard: New Horizons. und Potenziale von BRICS als Verbund 2014, Wiesbaden, 2015. Finding a path away from NATO’s de- aufstrebender Regionalmächte, Reader 240. Kronauer, Jörg: Allzeit bereit. Die solidarisation, The Hague Centre for Sicherheitspolitik, Issue 12/2014.

53 6. Will the Ice Age become Permafrost?

ness of the Alliance’s response forces. We are thus refocusing the Alliance on collec- tive defence, including with the potential threats of hybrid warfare in mind.“270

Also at the Munich Security Conference, German foreign minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier attacked his Russian colleague quite directly: „It’s also up to Moscow to define common interests. As yet we have seen little – too little – of this, and the speech given by Mr Lavrov yesterday made no contribution either.“ Steinmeier also pulled out the corny cliché again about the Western community of values exposed to a Russia caught up in the conceptual frame- work of geopolitical spheres of influence: „The conflict in Ukraine is an example of this. From the outset, two crucial elements of the international order have been at stake. Firstly, there was the confrontation between the peaceful order which has been painstakingly developed by Europe, based New Russian main battle tank. (Source: Russian Defence Ministry) on international law and states’ right to self-determination on the one hand, and on Not by accident did Russian foreign minister sising especially two aspects: for one, that the other hand, the logic of power politics Sergey Lavrov make reference at the 2015 the West relies on expansion and is not and spheres of influence which is prepared Munich Security Conference to the speech prepared to let Russia join in on a work- to flout the rules, including through the use his president Vladimir Putin had delivered in able security architecture: „The world is of force. In the EU and NATO we provided the very same place eight years before. At now facing a drastic shift […] Do they the a resolute and united response to the the time, it came as a surprise to many how West want to build a security architecture dangerous trajectory of the annexation of severely he blasted the Western expansion- with Russia, without Russia, or against Crimea and the conflict in eastern Ukraine, ist policy and warned against the threat of a Russia?“ And on the other hand, he once militarily underpinned by Russia.“271 new Cold War if no course change happened more underlined the Russian point of view in the matter. From the Russian point of that what happened in the Ukraine had The rift between the respective (self-) view, nothing has happened since then to been a „coup d‘état“ for which the West perceptions could hardly be bigger, as was overcome the concerns expressed then – was co-responsible to a significant extent: pointed out by, among others, the German on the contrary, things are continuing as „at each stage of the crisis’ development, radio station Deutsche Welle: „With full before. Time and time again, Putin pointed our American colleagues, and under their force, the views of Russia and the West out the long list of problems, for instance in influence, also the European Union, have clashed. Though the scrap is not only about his speech on the occasion of the admis- been taking steps leading to escalation.“269 the Ukraine crisis. The mutual distrust sion of Crimea on 18 March, 2014: „We is rooted much deeper. Russia‘s foreign are constantly proposing cooperation on all Of course, in the West, this is assessed minister stands alone. […] From NATO‘s key issues; we want to strengthen our level completely differently in most circles – and eastern expansion to differences of opinion of trust and for our relations to be equal, not only in the US. To German Chancellor concerning international disarmament open and fair. But we saw no reciprocal Merkel, it is thus beyond any debate who agreements – everything is one huge affront steps. On the contrary, they have lied to bears the sole responsibility for the escala- to Russia, as Lavrov interprets it. Modera- us many times, made decisions behind our tion: „Ladies and gentlemen, for over a year tor Ischinger appears bewildered: ‚We seem backs, placed us before an accomplished now, the crisis in Ukraine has demonstrated to be using a different history book than fact. This happened with NATO’s expansion that respect for the principles of Europe’s the Russians‘, the experienced diplomat to the East, as well as the deployment of peaceful order can by no means be taken comments and detects ‚a deep rift between military infrastructure at our borders. […] It for granted. For Russia’s actions – first in the narratives‘, meaning the narratives from happened with the deployment of a missile Crimea and then in eastern Ukraine – have which a society derives its identity.“272 defence system. […] They are constantly gone against these principles of our coexist- trying to sweep us into a corner […] And ence. Ukraine is seeing both its territorial However, without any open, public acknowl- with Ukraine, our western partners have integrity and sovereignty disregarded. edgement of the fact that the Western crossed the line, playing the bear and acting International law is being violated. […] This policy is at least partly to blame for the irresponsibly and unprofessionally.“268 context must also serve as the backdrop of current escalation, it is most likely that the decisions taken at the NATO Summit in the actively pursued collision course will For the most part, Lavrov repeated this Wales last year, with which NATO laid the be continued on at full speed. The only criticism in Munich in early 2015, empha- foundations for better operational readi- thing that is being offered is „cooperative

54 268. Gerns, 2015, p. 75. 269. English translation of Putin quotes: https://en.wikisource.org/wiki/ Address_by_President_of_the_Russian_ Federation_on_the_reunification_of_ the_Republic_of_Crimea_and_the_ city_of_Sevastopol_with_Russia 270. Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov delivers a speech and answers questions during debates at the 51st Munich Security Source: Flickr/Uwe Hiksch Conference, Munich, February 7, 2015. 271. Speech by Federal Chancellor Angela confrontation“, which in fact only remains Yet as bleak as the prospects may ap- Merkel on the Occasion of the cooperative as long as Russia submits to pear, there is still the hope that the 51st Munich Security Conference, Western aspirations without reservation.273 majority of the people in Germany, just Munich, 07 February 2015. What would be necessary is an immediate as in many other countries, will reject 272. Speech by Federal Foreign Minister suspension of all aggressive measures, this course of escalation. The matter to Steinmeier at the 51st Munich Security in combination with serious efforts to attend to now and in future is how such Conference, 08 February, 2015. work on joint solutions: „This is not about a theoretical rejection can be trans- 273. Frostiger Blick in tiefe Gräben, a simple case of ‚failure‘, of mispercep- formed into practical political protest! Deutsche Welle, 07 Feb, 2015. tions, misinterpretations and overreaction 274. The term stems from a paper by the on both sides. What has happened is that Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik: “The both sides have contributed towards the conflict over the Ukraine fuelled by amplification of a dispute which is funda- Russia as well as Moscow’s dominance- mental and thus will last for a long time. oriented notions of order for the post- There is hardly any room left for nuances, Soviet region force the EU into strategic and the danger that the whole affair will explicitness in its policy towards the gradually slide into continuously deepening eastern neighbourhood region. […] In this, antagonism. […] What would be required is EU and NATO should agree on a division of the shared preparedness of both sides to tasks. The associated countries could be leave behind their respective own ‚action gradually brought into a close relationship history‘, to listen (without over-eager efforts with NATO in the manner of Sweden and to comprehend everything), to empathise Finland today. […] It [the EU] would seek (without romanticising reality) and to com- to integrate Russia, while at the same mit to (civilised) constructive debate.“274 time ensuring that the neighbours can maintain their political self-determination.” Though this would require to radically (Lang, Kai-Olaf/Lippert, Barbara: Optionen change course, and additionally also to der EU für den Umgang mit Russland fundamentally abandon the idea of defend- und den östlichen Partnerländern. ing with claws and fangs the hegemonic »Kooperative Konfrontation« als position the West has held for centuries Richtschnur über den Riga-Gipfel – conditions which currently are unlikely to hinaus, SWP-Aktuell, April, 2015) appear acceptable. The danger is therefore 275. Lapins, Wolf: Die Illusion einer that the British NATO vice commander for Ostpolitik 4.0, Internationale Politik Europe, Adrian Bradshaw, will be proven und Gesellschaft, 16 Feb, 2015. right in predicting in his speech quoted in 276. Russian expansionism may pose the beginning that a new „era of constant existential threat, says Nato general, competition with Russia“ may be at hand.275 The Guardian, 20 Feb, 2015.

55 Sabine Lösing, MEP

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