Jürgen Wagner EUrope‘s Expansion Neighbourhood Policy, Association the Ukraine and No. 11, January 2016 11, No. the New Cold War Confrontation: Against Russia Information and Society on Politics MEP Lösing, Sabine by Edited Parliament European the from Reports Analyses News, and Sabine Lösing, MEP European Parliament Sabine Lösing, MEP Rue Wiertz WIB 03M023 1047 Brussels Phone: +32 2284 7894 Fax: +32 2284 9894 Email: [email protected] Assistants: Ota Jaksch, Anne Labinski Lokal Offices: Europabüro Sabine Lösing Goseriede 8 30159 Hannover Phone: +49 511 4500 8852 Email: [email protected] Assistants: Daniel Josten, Michael Kuhlendahl Europabüro Sabine Lösing Lange Geismarstraße 2 37073 Göttingen Phone: +49 551 5076 6823 Email: [email protected] Assistant: Fritz Hellmer www.sabine-loesing.de Expansion - Association - Confrontation: EUrope‘s Neighbourhood Policy, the Ukraine and the New Cold War Against Russia Cover Photo: Ukrainian army near sloviansk. Source: Sasha Maksymenko/Flickr Editors of the brochure are Sabine Lösing, MEP and the Parliamentary Group GUE/NGL in the European Parliament. Editing by: Informationsstelle Militarisierung e.V., Hechinger Straße 203, 72072 Tübingen, www.imi-online.de English Translation: Agentur punkt.um, übersetzung, dolmetschen, organisation, Göttingen Publication date: February 2016 (Layout: Daniel Josten) Circulation: 400 Table of Contents Foreword ............................................................................................................................................................................................4 Introduction ........................................................................................................................................................................................5 1. The Ukraine and the Cold War 2.0 .............................................................................................................................................7 1.1 Hegemonic Policy and NATO Expansion ..................................................................................................................................................7 1.2 Russia‘s Roll-Back ..................................................................................................................................................................................8 1.3 European Union vs. Eurasian Union ........................................................................................................................................................9 1.4 Ukraine: A Geopolitical Prize Piece .......................................................................................................................................................10 1.5 Geostrategy by Means of Association: Brussels or Moscow? ................................................................................................................11 2. The Ukraine in the Sights of EUropean Ambitions and Strategies ........................................................................................14 2.1 EUrope as a World Power .....................................................................................................................................................................14 2.2 Imperial Greater EUrope and How To Secure It by Military Means ........................................................................................................15 2.3 Expansion, Phase I: the EU‘s Eastern Enlargement ...............................................................................................................................17 2.4 Expansion, Phase II: EUrope‘s Imperial Neighbourhood Policy..............................................................................................................18 2.5 Neoliberal Association Agreement: The Ukraine as a Typical Example .................................................................................................19 3. The Ukraine as a Test Case for Germany‘s Emerging Ambitions ...........................................................................................23 3.1 New Power – New Responsibility ..........................................................................................................................................................23 3.2 Subversion and Regime Change „Made in Germany“ ............................................................................................................................25 3.3 Tensions Within the Western Camp and German Interests ...................................................................................................................27 4. The Ukraine in a War on Multiple Fronts ..................................................................................................................................31 4.1 From Protest to Coup ............................................................................................................................................................................31 4.2 Consensus on Western Integration – While Power Struggle Continues ................................................................................................32 4.3 The Spiral of Escalation and the Role of External Great Powers ............................................................................................................34 4.4 Replacement of Oligarchs, Exploitation and Repression .......................................................................................................................36 4.5 The Can of Worms Stays Open: Wear and Tear in the „Pro-Western“ Camp..........................................................................................37 5. Cold War: A Self-Fullfilling Prophecy? ........................................................................................................................................41 5.1 The West to be Extended right up to Russia‘s Doorstep? ......................................................................................................................41 5.2 Playing with Fire – NATO Mobilisation and War Games .........................................................................................................................43 5.3 „A Hazardous Game in Full View of a Catastrophe“ ..............................................................................................................................44 5.4 Germany as a „Swing State“? ...............................................................................................................................................................45 5.5 State Capitalism vs. Neoliberalism ......................................................................................................................................................48 5.6 A Chinese-Russian Alliance? .................................................................................................................................................................51 6. Will the Ice Age become Permafrost? .......................................................................................................................................54 Is It All Russia‘s Fault?.................................................................................................................................................................................10 Evil Model: The USA’s “Grand Area” ............................................................................................................................................................16 Gauckism – Nationalism – Global Power ....................................................................................................................................................26 Russia as a Justification for Arms Build-Up ................................................................................................................................................27 Maidan: Controversy Over Fatal Shots ........................................................................................................................................................32 Ukraine: Fascist Revolution .........................................................................................................................................................................33 EU Police Mission: „Disenchantment, Protest and Social Unrest“ ..............................................................................................................35 MH-17: Zenith of Propaganda! ....................................................................................................................................................................42 General Mobilisation: NATO Manoeuvres ....................................................................................................................................................45 Russia as a Justification for Arms Build-Up ................................................................................................................................................46 3 Foreword Considering the level of hysteria in which seems that in the European Parliament in the relationship towards Russia is cur- particular, many of my colleagues are get- rently being discussed here in the „West“, ting all fidgety in their eagerness to start it is sometimes rather difficult to find the a new Cold War with Russia. But what is right balance. On the one hand it is indeed quite certainly