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GLOBSEC 2017 Bratislava Forum Summary GLOBSEC GLOBSEC 2017 Bratislava Forum Summary Adapting (to) the Future www.globsec.org GLOBSEC 2017 BRATISLAVA FORUM SUMMARY Seemingly everything about the world as we know Hence the motto of the 12th edition of GLOBSEC it is changing and it is changing fast. The previously 2017 Bratislava Forum, Adapting (to) the Future. This inconceivable pace of this transformation proves to multifaceted character of current transformation be simply too quick for the traditional state structures requires a multi-lensed perspective in order to and global institutions to adapt to. Technology and understand this development, reap its rewards globalisation are driving this rapid political and and avoid possible traps. Therefore, GLOBSEC has social alteration, which has provoked a backlash gathered a crowd of visionaries, innovators, thinkers of people feeling scared of robots replacing them and politicians of various paths of life to come up at work or terrorists abusing technologies to attack with innovation in all aspects of our societies. them. Instant availability of information enabled by Aiming to challenge the bleak narrative for the the Internet has allowed for disinformation and fake future, guests of GLOBSEC were seeking to make news being shared across the globe with immense sense of the world, harness the innovation, adapt speed, adding fuel to these fears. our rules, policies and institutions to the future and In the midst of such muddle, individuals are losing thus shape the future we want to see. Key areas of ability to think critically and comprehend the complex adaptation discussed at GLOBSEC 2017 were NATO, world around them, leading to discontent and the intelligence cooperation, counter-terrorism activities, citizens giving up on any kind of civic engagement. reconstruction of the Middle East, supporting Eastern State and international institutions seem unable to Partnership countries, the future of the European catch up with appropriate policies and regulations Union, democracy and global economy. making sure they themselves and their citizens are equipped to face the unavoidable future. Traditional political systems are failing, populists are on the rise and so is fear. TABLE OF CONTENT NATO Adapting (to) the Future 6 Counter-terrorism Adapting (to) the Future 10 Allies in the East Adapting (to) the Future 16 Europe Adapting (to) the Future 20 Democracy Adapting (to) the Future 24 Global Economy Adapting (to) the Future 28 NATO ADAPTING (TO) THE FUTURE Despite widening scope of focus to other fields, This project is GLOBSEC’s foremost contribution to GLOBSEC 2017 Bratislava Forum has for the 12th debates about the future of our Alliance. Given the year dedicated a significant part of its programme to substantial changes within the global security the issues of international security. GLOBSEC Policy environment, GLOBSEC has undertaken a year-long Institute is closely coordinating with global leaders project, following its annual flagship conference on developing the initiatives seeking impact that will in April 2016 and subsequent NATO Summit in make our institutions agile and adaptable to future Warsaw, to explore challenges faced by the Alliance challenges. in adapting to a very different strategic environment than that of any time since the end of the Cold War. GLOBSEC NATO Adaptation Initiative was presented by the Chair of the Steering Committee, The Initiative envisages a series of policy papers General John Allen on the panel with NATO Deputy which address the nature of NATO adaptation and the Secretary General, Rose Gottemoeller and Foreign challenges it must overcome if it is to remain a viable Minister of Lithuania, Linas Linkevicius. and credible alliance for the peace and stability in From Left: Julian Lindley French Gen. John Allen Amb. Alexander Vershbow 6 GLOBSEC 2017 BRATISLAVA FORUM From Left: Hon. Rose Gottemoeller H. E. Linas Linkevičius Gen. John Allen the transatlantic area. The policy papers published within the framework of the Initiative on the NATO “If our only solution Adaptation process are authored by the Initiative’s Steering Committee members: General John Allen, General Wolf Langheld, Professor Dr Julian Lindley- to terrorism is to French, Admiral Giampaolo di Paola, Ambassador Tomáš Valášek and other acclaimed authorities from fight it, we will fight the field of global security and strategy. The aim of the involvement of such a wide array of experts is to reinforce the unique partnership among policy- forever. makers, military leaders and leading academics and commentators. These policy papers will prelude and No child is born a result in the publication of the Initiative’s Steering Committee Recommendation Two-Pager, ad interim terrorist.” report presented at GLOBSEC 2017 Bratislava Forum and the Main Paper – Report, prepared by Professor Dr Lindley-French, to be launched in December 2017. - General John Allen GLOBSEC 2017 Bratislava Forum hosted a series of debates on the future of the Alliance addressing the defence spending of Allies in an off-the-record Dinner Session while the Night Owl Session featuring Croatian President Kolinda Grabar-Kitarović, Tacan Ildem of NATO Public Diplomacy Division and Alexander Vershbow, former Deputy Secretary General of NATO and Tomáš Valášek, former Slovak Permanent Representative to NATO opened the question of public perception on NATO. How can the Alliance regain the trust of its people? SUMMARY 7 Hon. Rose Gottemoeller The problem of terrorism in connection to “Door of NATO will NATO’s involvement was one of the many issues covered. Participants of the Dinner Session warned about overly enthusiastic expectations remain open. from the NATO involvement in fight against ISIS. While they concurred that Europe needs to fix Every country has its deficit in defence capabilities to have a long- term understanding for NATO in Washington, the problem is not only quantity but also the quality of the right to decide the defence modernisation. NATO leaders urgently need a profound mindset change because as long with whom to as we do not change our leaders’ thinking, NATO cooperate.” simply will not be able to adapt. ’It’s time to make the @NATO alliance great again, says @LinkeviciusL to loud - Hon. Rose Gottemoeller laughter at #GLOBSEC2017 8 GLOBSEC 2017 BRATISLAVA FORUM It’s not #technology or people. Tech is enabled by people and we “In the long term have no truly autonomous weapon. #GLOBSEC2017 @PMBreedlove we will cross As part of the GLOBSEC’s aim to adapt the Alliance’s boundaries we have capabilities, the newly established GLOBSEC Future hosted a debate dedicated to the future of conflict focusing on currently developed disruptive not crossed yet. technologies. Such as developing soldiers & extending If we can manage the integration of all the innovative technologies, then we can achieve major disruptive peace. battlefield to #GLOBSEC2017 #HBromberg space.” The disruptive weapon transforming the conflict for the next 20 years, according to experts, will be precision non-kinetic weapon system, militarised civilian drones and the use of cyber-tools to attack - Philip Breedlove nuclear sites and interconnection of the new weapon systems. Debate with US Senator Ron Johnson, Chairman of the Homeland Security Committee, also touched upon the question of NATO, following up on the Brussels meeting of leaders. The Senator remarked that he, to use his own words, would ‘cut some slackʼ to the President. In light of international criticism, he is convinced that President Trump did reiterate the US commitment to Article V in his speech even if he did not use “the right magic words”. From Left: Amb. Alexander Vershbow H.E. Kolinda Grabar-Kitarović Amb. Tacan Ildem Amb. Tomáš Valášek SUMMARY 9 COUNTER-TERRORISM ADAPTING (TO) THE FUTURE Intelligence for the 21st Century “After attacks GLOBSEC Intelligence Reform Initiative, led by former US Secretary for Homeland Security in Brussels, Michael Chertoff, played a significant role at the GLOBSEC Forum again this year. In line with its intelligence services four main recommendations, the panel debate revolved around strengthening of the intelligence- sharing by linking national counter-terrorism centres in Europe already via Core Transatlantic Counter-Terrorism Hub. However, two key predicaments were identified for use a common achieving this goal – mutual trust between nation- states must grow and shared intelligence has to be better operationalised for the purpose of practical platform to share preventive actions in order to thwart terrorist attacks. As of now, intelligence cooperation within the EU intelligence flow remains vastly based on the national ownership of the information gathered by the agencies of more.” respective Member States. Despite increasing quality and quantity of coordination, it is not likely that a type of institutionalised mechanism will be - Dick Schoof established any time soon on the EU level. Microsoft’s Vice-President for EU Government Affairs, John Frank reiterated the need for an independent authority gathering the intelligence data in order to be analysed and operationalised. He is not in favour of giving up information about their customers directly to the governments or putting “backdoors” into their products to be exploited by the governments for intelligence gathering. At the same time, John Frank highlighted the example of cooperation between IT industry competitors in terms of sharing the knowledge about threats to various kinds of software. Therefore, he considers the intelligence-sharing
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