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Swiss Real Snapshot!

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Swiss Real Snapshot! Swiss Real SnapShot! Builder Interest Rate Current developments in the Swiss real estate investment market Autumn/Winter 2018 Content Macroeconomic 04 Overview Office Property 06 Market Retail Property 07 Market Residential Property 09 Market Direct Property 11 Investments Indirect Property 12 Investments Residential Property 14 in the Canton of Vaud Swiss Real SnapShot! 1 2 Swiss Real SnapShot! Introduction Dear Sir or Madam KPMG Swiss Real SnapShot!, published twice a year, provides you with an overview of the current developments in the Swiss real estate market and its influencing factors. The Swiss real estate market is a heterogeneous and strictly segmented structure. Thus, KPMG Swiss Real SnapShot! concentrates on a global observation. Regional deviations are commented occasionally in a focus article. KPMG Real Estate has both, Swiss-specific and global expertise in the real estate markets. Our extensive data pools on local markets along with competent and in-depth consultation generate added value for our clients in all areas related to real estate. Turn to page 16 of KPMG Swiss Real SnapShot! to see what we can do for you and how you can benefit from our services. We wish you a pleasant and informative reading. With kind regards, Ulrich Prien Beat Seger Partner, Head of Real Estate Switzerland Partner, Real Estate M&A Swiss Real SnapShot! 3 Builder Macroeconomic Overview At the end of Q3 2018, the Swiss economy is looking at a bright future. The State Secretariat for Economic Affairs (SECO) is anticipating further positive momentum in both Interest foreign trade and the domestic economy, and by October 2018 it again increased its forecast for GDP growth to 2.9% for the year. After the spring of 2018, when Credit Suisse and UBS had Rate assessed economic growth to be even lower, namely at 1.7% and 1.8%, both banks now agree with SECO’s forecast thus increasing their estimates to 2.7% and 2.9% respectively. At 2.88%, the average evaluated by the forecasting institutes in the consensus forecast practically matches SECO’s expectations, after standing at 2.1% in H1 2018. With strong economic prospects – and with population growth also slowing – the situation in the Swiss labor market continues to tighten. In H2 2018, the Swiss forecasting institutes are revising their assessments of the unemployment rate downwards once more. As a result, the consensus unemployment forecast for the unemployment rate as at the end of October 2018 has been lowered again to an average of 2.6% (Spring 2018: 2.9%). For 2019, a further reduction in unemployment (to 2.4%) is expected, despite economic growth weakening to 1.7%. Over the course of the year, anticipated inflation for 2018 has been revised significantly upwards. Whilst the consensus forecast for the consumer price index in the spring still stood at 0.5%, in October the forecasting institutes unanimously adopted an inflation rate of 1.0% for the current year. Inflation of 0.9% is expected for 2019. Thus, the forecasting institutes agree that the inflation which has prevailed over the past year (0.5%) – after a phase of stagnating consumer prices since 2009 – will continue. Macroeconomic indicators1 5% Forecast average 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% -1% and Consumer Prices Index -2% GDP growth, unemployment rate -3% 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018P 2019P GDP growth Unemployment rate Consumer Prices Index Source: BAKBasel, Credit Suisse, KOF, SECO, UBS and KPMG 1 P = Consensus forecast based on BAKBasel, UBS, Credit Suisse, KOF and SECO 4 Swiss Real SnapShot! should once again turn out lower than in the previous year. thanintheprevious outlower should onceagainturn immigration totheendofyear Therefore 37,100. reached netimmigrationuptotheendofSeptemberhad 2018, 60,000 until2030andtostabilize at30,000 until2040.In annualimmigrationtoremainstatic expects ataround (BFS) Statistics Office model,theFederal In itsreference thepasttenyears. for level toitslowest timeinarow fourth the for net immigrationof53,000, in2017 netmigrationfell totheState According SecretariatMigration(SEM),with for Source: IMFandKPMG Global GDPgrowth nation. asanexporting Switzerland optimistic for trade,theglobaleconomicoutlookis tensions inworld anddespitethepolitical European countries.Overall, implementation andbudgetdeficitsinsome ofBrexit the risingoilpricesworldwide, monetary policy, fromanexpansionary risks resultingfromtheplannedexit arethehigher forecasts thelower for reasonsgiven The to5.1%in2019. predict anincrease,from4.9%thisyear countries inemerginganddeveloping forecasts growth whilst year, economiesnext rateintheadvanced growth to2.2%inthe aslowdown theIMFexpects However, 2019. inallregionsfor ratesarealsoforecast growth Positive countries increasedonceagainto2.4%inthesecondhalf. industrialized for forecast the2018 the start oftheyear, aninitialincreaseat After twoyears. boththenext 3.9% for by globalGDPtogrow International Monetary expects Fund The Global economicprospectsremainpositive. developing countries 2018 Global growth Emerging and Industrialised Eurozone countries Japan USA UK 2019 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 2018 and, at 100.1 at the end of October, itispredicting attheendofOctober, and,at100.1 2018 100 sinceMay of average arounditslong-term fluctuating economicbarometerhasbeen KOF The threshold. thegrowth above stilliswell which itstoodat57.4, 2018 October inthethirdquarterandby fell index The reached. couldnolongerbe thislevel of62.9inH12018, average At an 2011. sinceFebruary at65.6,itshighestlevel peaked (PMI) Index Managers’ thePurchasing In December2017, SEMandKPMG Source: BFS, Net migration rates can be expected over theshorttomediumterm. over rates canbeexpected growth –positive in2019 and –despiteminorcorrections ispromising, economy theSwiss theoutlookfor Overall, andKPMG KOF CreditSuisse,SNB, Source: Procure, rate EUR –CHFexchange and economicbarometer KOF Index, Managers’ Purchasing alldropped. indicatorshave and export astheconsumer aswell banking andinsuranceinstitutions, industry theconstruction and theindicatorsfor sector, declineinthemanufacturing amarked indicators. Besides acrossdifferent isevident striking thattheslowdown itisvery toKOF, According thanthePMI. growth slower PMI and KOF barometer Net migration 100,000 -20,000 10 12 14 Other Countries Spain Germany 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 2 4 6 8 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 PMI growththreshold PMI EUR –CHFexchangerate Jan. 2001 0 Jan. 2002 Jan. 2003 2008 Jan. 2004 Jan. 2005 2009 Africa Jan. 2006 Portugal France Jan. 2007 2010 Jan. 2008 2011 Jan. 2009 Jan. 2010 2012 Total Jan. 2011 Asia Italy KOF barometer10-yearaverage KOF barometer Jan. 2012 2013 Jan. 2013 Swiss Real Real Swiss 2014 Jan. 2014 Jan. 2015 2015 Jan. 2016 SnapShot! Jan. 2017 2016 Jan. 2018 2017 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 . 2 4 6 8 2 4 6 8 EUR – CHF exchange rate exchange CHF – EUR 2018L 5 major Swiss cities in 2018: Basel (-2.8%), Bern (-13.1%) and Office Market Zurich (-20.7%). In Geneva, in contrast, office space vacancy increased significantly again in 2018, after declining by In the Swiss office space market, despite the strong 43.7% last year. Due to the situation in Geneva, total vacant economic environment, the marketing situation remains office space in the four cities has increased again, to around quite difficult. The decline in immigration, the ageing 480,000 sq. m. Nevertheless, even in Basel, Berne and population and the sluggish employment rate continue to Zurich, despite the renewed fall and the positive economic exert pressure on the demand side. However, the office outlook, there is no talk yet of a significant relaxation. In employment figures are underpinning the office market in many locations, the vacant office space gives prospective 2018. and current tenants plenty of room to manoeuvre and a negotiating margin, so that asking and contractual rents will According to the Federal Statistics Office, office remain under pressure. employment has been more or less static at around 1.13 million full-time equivalent (seasonally adjusted) between Office space vacancy in the principal centres 2014 and 2017. This year, the good economic prospects seem to be manifesting themselves in office employment. 600,000 In both Q1 and Q2 2018, employment grew by around 500,000 2.65% compared to last year in each case. The miscellaneous economic services sector (Q2: +1.03% 400,000 compared to last year), the independent professional, 300,000 scientific and technical services sector (+0.82%) and the information technology and communications (+0.52%) 200,000 sector have contributed particularly to the growth of full- 100,000 time equivalent employment. Only the financial and Vacant office space in sq.m insurance services experienced negative growth figures, 0 dropping by -0.40% in the first quarter and -0.32% in the second quarter. 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Basel Bern Geneva Zurich Compared to last year, the office space market has Source: City statistical offices and KPMG somewhat recovered as regards vacancy figures in the Changes in typical office employment by sector (seasonally adjusted) 7% 150 6% 140 5% 130 Index of changes 4% in employment 3% 120 2% 110 1% Employment growth YoY 0% 100 -1% 90 -2% -3% 80 Q1 2000 Q3 2000 Q1 2001 Q3 2001 Q1 2002 Q3 2002 Q1 2003 Q3 2003 Q1 2004 Q3 2004 Q1 2005 Q3 2005 Q1 2006 Q3 2006 Q1 2007 Q3 2007 Q1 2008 Q3 2008 Q1 2009 Q3 2009 Q1 2010 Q3 2010 Q1 2011 Q3 2011 Q1 2012 Q3 2012 Q1 2013 Q3 2013 Q1 2014 Q3 2014 Q1 2015 Q3 2015 Q1 2016 Q3 2016 Q1 2017 Q3 2017 Q1 2018 Other services Public Administration Annual growth Other business services Professional, scientific and technical services Employment Index Property and housing Financial and insurance services IT and telecommunications Source: BFS and KPMG 6 Swiss Real SnapShot! Accordingly, the downward trend in asking rents for office space continued in H1 2018. The most obvious decline Retail Market compared to last year was seen in Geneva, at -7.5%. But asking rents also fell significantly in Basel (-3%) and Berne Retail sales lost their momentum in H2 2018 after an (-2.7%). It was only in Zurich that the change in asking rents unexpectedly positive outcome last year (+1.5%). According was only just negative, at -0.5%.
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