Investor Presentation Q1 2021
Danske Hypotek – investor presentation
Q1 2021 Danske Hypotek Q1 2021
Agenda
1 Danske Bank Group – Covered bond universe
2 Danske Bank - Personal Banking SE
3 Danske Hypotek - Structure and expected development
4 Danske Hypotek - Funding
5 Appendix – Nordic macro
6 Contacts
1 Danske Bank Group - Covered bond universe Danske Hypotek Q1 2021
Danske Bank covered bond universe, a transparent pool structure1
Residential mortgages from • Denmark, D-pool Danske Bank A/S C-pool S&P AAA • Norway, I-pool Fitch AAA • Sweden, Danske Hypotek AB + • Finland, Danske Mortgage Bank Plc
Commercial mortgages from • Sweden and Norway, C-pool
Danske Bank A/S I-pool Finland S&P AAA Fitch AAA
Danske Mortgage Bank Plc Norway Moody’s Aaa
Pass-through principle based on mortgages from Sweden Denmark primarily Danske Hypotek AB • Capital Centre T S&P AAA NCR2 AAA ‒ Adjustable-rate mortgages Realkredit Danmark A/S • Capital Centre S S&P AAA ‒ Fixed-rate callable mortgages Fitch AAA/AA+ Scope AAA Denmark Danske Bank A/S D- pool S&P AAA Fitch AAA
1 The migration to Danske Hypotek of Swedish residential loans from Danske Bank’s I-pool and Swedish residential-like loans from Danske Bank’s C-pool is ongoing 2 Nordic Credit Rating (NCR) Details of the composition of individual cover pools can be found on the respective issuers’ website 3 Danske Bank – Personal Banking SE - Strategy in Sweden Danske Hypotek Q1 2021
A challenger in a dynamic Swedish market
5 Danske Hypotek Q1 2021 Balanced organic growth
Strengthening our position in the Swedish market
Partners Customer Profitability satisfaction Online
Controlled risks Cross BU collaboration
6 Danske Hypotek Q1 2021 Growing with controlled risks
Target the right customers Early actions to mitigate risks
Strategic partnerships Ahead of regulations
SACO & TCO customers Strategic partners Early actions to mitigate risks
Higher credit quality than Debt-to-income (DTI) caps average Amortisation Higher use of digital tools 650,000 1,300,000 650.000 requirements and channels than average members members members LTV cap on high priced 23 affiliated 14 affiliated Faster to broaden their 140.000 properties in Stockholm associations associations relation than average savers Launch Launch Launch February 2016 April 2017 Jan 2020
7 Danske Hypotek Q1 2021 Online with customer Holistic Approach
Digital interfaces and processes Focus on customer value
Digital on-boarding of new customers Life event based solutions
Simplicity & transparency Customer relations digital
Customer Program Online meetings
8 Danske Hypotek Q1 2021 Strong mortgage portfolio
Mortgage portfolio compared to Share of Swedish mortgage market , market average 1 2020
Higher resilience in stress tests Market share 3.8%
Higher household income Share of market growth 4.2%
Larger share in urban areas
1) Finansinspektionen, The Swedish Mortgage Market , 2019 9 Danske Hypotek - Structure and expected development Danske Hypotek Q1 2021 Purpose and Structure
Danske Bank Group has a strong commitment to the Swedish mortgage market • Ensure stable funding for our customers through the cycle • Long term funding solution for continued growth of Swedish retail mortgage business • Market communication; strong commitment to the Swedish Market
Danske Hypotek – Structure Danske Hypotek pool (incl. indicative future transfer capacity)
Origination Principal and interest SEKbn Swedish Danske Bank mortgage lending 150 New lending Sale of Parent Loan mortgages 117
Danske Hypotek
Principal and Bond interest proceeds EOY 2020 2021 2022 Longer term
Asset release Covered Bonds
Cover pool in Existing cover pools Danske Hypotek EMTCN SEK Covered Programme Covered Programme New originated loans
11 Danske Hypotek Q1 2021
Governance model Funding, Hedging, Liquidity and Capitalisation
Governance model Funding • Danske Hypotek primarily funds itself in the Swedish Covered Benchmark market • EMTCN programme mainly for complementary capacity purposes • Danske Hypotek’s primary interim source of liquidity is through a Governancemodel parent loan
Hedging • Danske Bank A/S is Danske Hypotek’s primary swap counterpart • On the liability side, all cash flows from issued bonds are swapped to SLA- 3m Stibor based flows Dedicated Steering management / organisation documentation • On the asset side, all cash flows from the mortgages are swapped to Outsourcing 3m Stibor based flows
Liquidity and capitalisation I II III • Danske Hypotek meets SFSA liquidity requirements Key capabilities and resources within Danske Bank • Danske Hypotek is compliant with capital requirements as stated in e.g. CRR/CRD IV as well as specific Swedish regulation and guidelines Group on capital requirements
12 Danske Hypotek Q1 2021
Danske Hypotek Cover pool characteristics As of end December 2020
Characteristics Assets Loan volumes by Region, % Collateral type 100% Swedish retail residential mortgages Loans in cover pool SEK 113.8bn Number of Loans 109 050 17% Number of Borrowers 52 323 Number of Properties 54 069 4% Average Loan Size SEK 1.044 m 47% Property Type 42% Tenant Owner Rights, 58% Single-Family Housing 5… WA LTV 58%* WA Seasoning 4.2 years 7% Rate type 37% Floating rate, 63% Fixed rate 7% Repayment type 58% Amortizing, 42% Interest Only 13% Issuance notional 90 936 OC 26% Greater Stockholm Greater Gothenburg Geographical location 100% Sweden. Greater Malmoe South Sweden Pool type Dynamic North Sweden West Sweden East Sweden Pool Cut Date 31-12-2020
Volumes by seasoning, month Loan volumes in LTV buckets 34 28% 25 20% 32
Bn 19% 30 17% 28 23% SEK Bn SEK 20 26 15% 24 12% 22 17% 15 20 15% 15% 18 9% 16 10 14 6% 12 10 5 8 2% 6 4 0 2 0 < 10% 10-20% 20-30% 30-40% 40-50% 50-60% 60-70% 70-75% 0-12 M 12-24 M 24-36 M 36-60 M 60 M -
*Based on priority distribution of mortgage. When joint collateral Danske Hypotek has first priority over Danske Bank. 13 Danske Hypotek Q1 2021
Effect of house price sensitivity on LTV and eligible assets
House price sensitivity*
Stressed house prices
Key points 120 SEK Bn Moderate effects 100 • A 20 pct. fall in house prices implies that 7.5% of todays eligible assets becomes non-eligible. 80
• A 40 pct. fall in house prices implies that 60 22% of todays eligible assets becomes non-eligible. 40
• Danske Hypotek can withstand a large 20 decline in the market without breaching any OC requirements. 0 0pct -5% -10% -15% -20% -25% -30% -35% -40% Eligible volume Non-eligible volume due to simulated high LTV
*Effect of simulated market value declines. Pool cut date 31-12-2020
14 Danske Hypotek Q1 2021
Danske Hypotek: Available assets for future cover pool — Overview
The relevant aggregate Swedish mortgage assets currently available on the Danske Bank Group balance sheet including mortgages of SEK 114bn already transferred into Danske Hypotek (as of 31 December 2020) is shown below. The timing of each transfer to Danske Hypotek will be determined close to the actual relevant transfer dates. Key determinants will be demand from investors and development in the Swedish loan book
Characteristics Personal Banking loans Business Banking loans Total loanbook
Potential assets in phase one (including mortgages of Potential assets in phase two Potential assets in total SEK 114bn already transferred into Danske Hypotek) 100pct residential mortgages to private individuals (retail) 100pct residential mortgages to owners of multi- 82pct retail, 18pct Multi-Family Collateral type family properties Pool notional SEK 128.3bn SEK 28.4bn SEK 156,6bn Number of loans 119,609 2,465 122,074 Number of borrowers 57.929 1.444 59.373 Number of properties 58,637 2,836 61,473 Average loan size SEK 1.072m SEK 11.5m SEK 1.283m 44% tenant owner rights, 56% single family housing 38% cooperative housing, 62% rental housing 45% Retail, 43% cooperative housing and Property type 12% rental housing WA LTV (Indexed) 60% 49% 58% WA seasoning 4.2 years 1.7 years 3.7 years WA remaining term 30.8 years 2.2 years 24.8 years Pool type Dynamic Dynamic Dynamic Rate type 37% floating rate, 63% fixed rate 58% floating rate, 42% fixed rate 40% floating rate, 60% Fixed rate Geographical location 100% Sweden 100% Sweden 100% Sweden Pool cut date 31-12-2020 31-12-2020 31-12-2020
• 1. For more details on the cover pool currently within Danske Hy potek, please refer to www.danskehypotek.se. 15 Danske Hypotek - Funding www.danskehypotek.se Danske Hypotek Q1 2021
Danske Hypotek and the Swedish benchmark market
Our ambition is to be recognized by investors as an established benchmark issuer
Our tools: Our targets:
Market maker agreements with all major • Continue to build liquid benchmark curve during participants the coming years. This will take priority over Repo facility that allows market makers to cover private placements in other formats short positions – as a lender of last resort • All benchmark bonds to be LCR level 1 at launch Included in OMRX and SHB index • Continue to approach the market in a consistent, The ability to tap the bonds when we see demand transparent and predictable manner based on daily quotes on our bonds The ability to buy-back when the bonds are approaching maturity
Long term commitment to the Swedish market
17 Danske Hypotek Q1 2021 Danske Hypotek – Covered bond funding
• Mortgage asset volume amounts to SEK 117bn as per 31 DH2212 DH2112 DH2312 DH2412 DH2512 December 100 • Established a benchmark curve with five outstanding bonds Outstanding amount as of 80 All bonds rated AAA by S&P and NCR 31 Dec 2020 (SEK) • DH2112: 13.2bn 60 DH2212: 24.9bn As per 31 December 2021 total outstanding covered bonds Billion SEK DH2312: 17.9bn • 40 of SEK 90.3bn DH2412: 20.5bn DH2512: 13.8bn 20 Tot:al : 90.3bn • Buy-backs of SEK 5,4bn in DH2112 during2020 0
• Daily quoting of prices and ongoing issuance of bonds -20
-40 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Spreads and bond issuance
18 Danske Hypotek Q1 2021 Danske Hypotek – Plans going forward - 2021
• Continue to maintain liquidity in our outstanding bonds with daily quotes The Swedish benchmark curve via our market makers Danske Hypotek LF Hypotek Nordea Hypotek S CBC S EB Swedbank Hypotek Stadshypotek • Target funding volume of around SEK 30bn during 2021 (SEK 5bn 20 executed as of 31 January 2021) 15
• Intention to issue 1–2 benchmark bonds per year the coming years 10 DH2512 Basis points 5
• Intention to increase volume to approximately SEK 130bn in the loan 0 portfolio by end of 2021 -5 • Will be available for buy-backs well in duetime before maturity (buy- -10 backs in DH2112 started in September 2020) -15
Actual is suance Funding plan Indicative volumes DH2212 DH2112 DH2312 Cover pool assets Indicative Funding Plan, monthly DH2412 DH2512 40 Expected asset transfers 160 35 140 Billion SEK
Billion SEK 30 120
25 100
20 80 36 15 32 60 27.9 30 25.6 22.7 10 19.7 40
5 20 0 0 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
19 Danske Hypotek Q1 2021
Key takeaways on Danske Hypotek
Danske Hypotek is a wholly-owned subsidiary of Danske Bank
Swedish Credit Market Company, (Kreditmarknadsbolag), supervised by Finansinspektionen (SFSA) resembling the setup from other Swedish Benchmark issuers
100% Swedish mortgages. Sufficient asset volume available to enable building of liquid benchmark curve
Transparent and predictable issuer behaviour in the Swedish Benchmark Market i.e., taps, buybacks, dedicated market makers
Five Benchmark bonds issued since 2017 with a total outstanding of SEK 90.3bn
20 Danske Hypotek Q1 2021
Appendix - Nordic macro Danske Hypotek Q1 2021
Nordic macroeconomics Denmark Sweden Norway Finland EU
Real GDP, constant prices (index 2005 = 100) Inflation (%)
150 6
5
140
4
130
3
120 2
1
110
0
100
-1
90 -2
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 20052006 20072008 20092010201120122013 20142015 20162017 20182019 20052006 20072008 2009201020112012201320142015 20162017 20182019
Interest rates, leading (%) Unemployment (%)
6 12
11
5
10
4
9
8
3
7
2
6
1 5
4
0
3
-1 2
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 20052006 20072008 20092010201120122013 20142015 20162017 20182019 20052006 20072008 20092010201120122013 20142015 20162017 20182019
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Nordic housing markets Denmark Sweden Norway Finland
Property prices (index 2005 = 100) House prices/nom. GDP (index 2005 = 100)
Real Estate Prices, Index, Residential, Price Index 140
275 130
250
120
225
200
110
175
100
150
125
90
100
80 75
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 20052006 2007200820092010201120122013 20142015 20162017 20192018 20052006 20072008 2009201020112012201320142015 20162017 20182019
Apartment prices (index 2005 = 100) Apartment prices/nom. GDP (index 2005 = 100)
Real Estate Prices, Index, Residential
180
325
160
275
140
225
120
175
100 125
80 75
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 20052006 20072008 2009201020112012201320142015 20162017 20182019 20052006 20072008 2009201020112012201320142015 20162017 20182019
23 Danske Hypotek - Contacts www.danskehypotek.se Danske Hypotek Q1 2021
Contacts
Kimberly Bauner Per Tunestam Head of Group Treasury Managing Director, Danske Hypotek Mobile: +45 24 80 72 88 Direct: +46 856 88 06 53 E-mail: [email protected] Mobile: +46 708 74 48 41 E-mail: [email protected] Bent Callisen Head of Group Funding, Group Treasury Tomas Renger, Danske Hypotek Direct: +45 45 12 84 08 Chief Funding Manager Mobile: +45 30 10 23 05 Direct: +46 856 88 06 54 E-mail: [email protected] Mobile: +46 708 34 72 64 E-mail: [email protected] Rasmus Sejer Broch Senior Funding Manager, Group Treasury Jonas Wikfeldt, Danske Hypotek Direct: +45 45 12 81 05 Senior Funding Manager Mobile: +45 40 28 09 97 Direct: +46 856 88 06 52 E-mail: [email protected] Mobile: +46 767 21 60 80 E-mail: [email protected] Thomas Halkjær Jørgensen, Group Treasury Chief Funding Manager Claus Ingar Jensen Direct: +45 45 12 83 94 Head of IR Mobile: +45 25 42 53 03 Direct: +45 45 12 84 83 E-mail: [email protected] Mobile: +45 25 42 43 70 E-mail: [email protected]
25 Danske Hypotek Q1 2021
Disclaimer
Important Notice This presentation does not constitute or form part of and should not be construed as, an offer to sell or issue or the solicitation of an offer to buy or acquire securities of Danske Bank Group including Danske Hypotek in any jurisdiction, including the United States, or an inducement to enter into investment activity. No part of this presentation, nor the fact of its distribution, should form the basis of, or be relied on in connection with, any contract or commitment or investment decision whatsoever. The securities referred to herein have not been, and will not be, registered under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended (“Securities Act”), and may not be offered or sold in the United States absent registration or an applicable exemption from the registration requirements of the Securities Act.
This presentation contains forward-looking statements that reflect management’s current views with respect to certain future events and potential financial performance. Although Danske Bank including Danske Hypotek believes that the expectations reflected in such forward-looking statements are reasonable, no assurance can be given that such expectations will prove to have been correct. Accordingly, results could differ materially from those set out in the forward-looking statements as a result of various factors many of which are beyond Danske Bank’s control.
This presentation does not imply that Danske Bank including Danske Hypotek has undertaken to revise these forward-looking statements, beyond what is required by applicable law or applicable stock exchange regulations if and when circumstances arise that will lead to changes compared to the date when these statements were provided.
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