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Jyske Bank Buy unfolds whileYield growth the strategy and Equity Research Investment Research Flash note preview 13 February 2017 Jyske Bank Buy (Unchanged) Banks, Denmark Yield and growth while the strategy unfolds Q4 16 results due 21 February, before 09:00 CET Key data Price (DKK)* 369 Target price, 12 mth (DKK) † 410 The Jyske Bank investment case has changed over the past six months in our Previous 12M target price (DKK) † 365 view, from a low-visibility story of hopes and wishes to a yield machine fuelled by Market cap (DKKm) 34,923 growth. Jyske Bank has built a solid NII base, while capital looks strong. The 2016 Market cap (EURm) 4,697 AT-1 issuance leaves room for solid capital distribution, while valuation still Reuters JYSK.CO Bloomberg JYSK DC leaves upside in our view. We keep Buy and lift our 12M target price to DKK410. No. of shares (m) 94.7 We expect Jyske Bank to show modest NII growth as Q3 16 was impacted by Free float 75.0% Avg. daily vol, 12M (000) 284.5 one-offs but also due to good fundamental underlying growth. We pencil in DKK1,422m (+2.1% q/q). Jyske Bank’s volume intake should be strong in coming Price performance 380 quarters, supporting NII, but we do not expect mortgage repricing in 2017. 360 340 320 Fee income is likely to be modest short-term due to pro-bono mortgage 300 280 transfers, and we estimate DKK476m (-3.8% y/y). However, with the reintroduction 260 240 220 of fees in February 2017 we expect fee income to grow from now on. Feb 16 May 16 Aug 16 Nov 16 Error! AutoText entry not defined. Error! AutoText JYSK.CO STOXX 600/Banks rebased Credit quality should be strong from better conditions within agriculture and still strong performance in the mortgage book. We expect DKK46m (4bp). 1M 3M 12M 5Y Absolute 10% 20% 32% 84% The capital position should be strong and we forecast a DKK5.5 DPS boosted Rel. local market 8% 7% 19% -8% by a DKK2bn buy-back for 2017 (DKK1bn initially, topped up in H2 17). Rel. EU sector 11% 9% 6% 66% Jyske Bank remains well positioned for the continued low/negative rate Source: FactSet environment and we expect the bank to start harvesting benefits from growth in Estimate changes 16E 17E 18E recent years. At a P/E (2018E) of 10.3x we still see upside. Our capital and risk NII -0.1% -1.8% 0.0% adjusted valuation model, with 8.3% cost of capital, indicates DKK410 which PPP 4.7% -4.9% -1.1% EPS (adj.) 1.7% -2.8% -0.2% is our new 12M forward target price – Buy. Source: Danske Bank Markets estimates Key financials Next event Q4 21-Feb Year-end Dec (DKK) 2014 2015 2016E 2017E 2018E * Price as at close on 10 February 2017 † Includes dividends NII (m) 5,315 5,886 5,713 5,961 6,422 Lending growth 175.4% 9.5% 5.7% 8.9% 7.4% Total revenues (m) 10,186 8,433 8,334 8,224 8,783 Pre-provision profits (PPP) (m) 4,955 3,111 3,277 3,215 3,838 PPP growth 81.1% -37.2% 5.3% -1.9% 19.4% Loan losses (m) -1,953 -347 -190 -167 -178 PTP (m) 3,103 3,204 3,439 3,374 3,960 EPS (adj.) 14.2 22.3 26.5 28.3 35.9 DPS 0.00 5.25 5.50 5.80 8.36 Dividend yield 1.7% 1.5% 1.6% 2.3% C/I 51.4% 63.1% 60.7% 60.9% 56.3% PPP/avg. lending 2.01% 0.82% 0.80% 0.74% 0.81% Analyst(s) Loan loss ratio 0.79% 0.09% 0.05% 0.04% 0.04% Asbjørn Nicholas Mørk Equity tier-1 ratio 15.3 16.1 16.1 15.5 15.1 +45 45 12 80 51 RoNTA 5.8% 7.4% 7.9% 7.6% 8.7% [email protected] P/E (adj.) (x) 22.0 14.0 13.9 13.0 10.3 P/NTA 1.08 0.99 1.03 0.94 0.85 Matti Ahokas +358 10 236 4743 Source: Company data, Danske Bank Markets estimates [email protected] 1Important | Jyske disclosures Bank Buy and certifications are contained from page 13 of this report. www.danskemarketsequities.com unfolds whileYield growth the strategy and Investment case In our view Jyske Bank will be a relative winner in the improving Danish mortgage market. It stands to harvest the most tailwinds in our base case (+6.6% on NII and +11.1% on net profits) from the trend of better mortgage NII. This is a clear contrast to e.g. Sydbank which faces the toughest headwinds (1.7% to NII and 2.2% to net profits). Three years into the BRF acquisition story we think it is time to revisit the investment case. The BRF acquisition in our view is a five-year strategy moving Jyske Bank from a mid-cap regional bank to a large-cap Danish banking powerhouse. In our view the Jyske Bank investment case has improved significantly in recent years: The mortgage book is now not growing at the expense of the bank book, meaning that cannibalisation is now not an issue to the same extent that it was in 2014 and 2015. Credit quality is solid and with better agriculture and continued improved housing market Jyske Bank’s loan losses should be low for years to come. The issuance of DKK1.5bn of Additional Tier-1 capital in September 2016 opens the yield case further; it allows the CET-1 to decline to around 14.5% on S&P’s capital model. The swap rate has now hit a level where we would expect it to have a positive impact on future reported earnings, or at least not an adverse impact. Own portfolio income stands to benefit from the 38.5% ownership of Nordjyske Error! AutoText entry not defined. Error! AutoText Bank. As stability in reported earnings improves we expect investors to factor in the low- risk mortgage book in Jyske Bank more than is the case today. With an ROE (2018E) of 9.0%, Jyske Bank should trade at a premium to book value, in our view. Valuation and methodology for deriving 12M target price We value Jyske Bank using a capital and credit risk adjusted valuation approach. With this approach we derive the underlying true profitability of the bank and apply a fair P/NAV multiple on the required equity base using Gordon’s growth. Subsequently, we add excess capital at book value. We apply a 14% long-term CET-1 ratio for Jyske Bank and 17bp normalised loan loss provisions. We back-up our capital and credit risk adjusted valuation using a peer group comparing banks on actual and normalised earnings multiples. Risks to achievement of 12M target price We factor in mortgage repricing in BRF, as we argue the upside potential from doing so is solid. However, lack of repricing could be a negative risk to our current base. Other downside risks include continued deterioration in Danish bank margins, which have been under significant pressure in 2015 and 2016. 2 | Jyske Bank Buy www.danskemarketsequities.com unfolds whileYield growth the strategy and Fee income has been weak in 2016 as the bank is not charging lending fees to new mortgage customers. The CEO has said that these fees will be reintroduced from 2017, leaving both us and the market expecting a rebound to total fee income. A new miss on the fee income line would be an incremental negative risk. Costs are expected to come down in the coming years as the BRF integration synergies are harvested. In 2015, DKK550m of the total DKK600m of annual expected synergies have been harvested, but failure to deliver the last DKK50m or to retain the synergy level could be a downside risk as well. Error! AutoText entry not defined. Error! AutoText 3 | Jyske Bank Buy www.danskemarketsequities.com unfolds whileYield growth the strategy and Results preview Table 1. Estimates overview D KKm Q1 15 Q2 15 Q3 15 Q4 15 Q1 16 Q2 16 Q3 16 Q4 16E 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016E 2017E 2018E Core net interest income 1,389 1,452 1,478 1,567 1,450 1,448 1,393 1,422 4,471 4,438 5,315 5,886 5,713 5,961 6,422 Core net commission 617 350 372 495 324 343 363 476 1,652 1,731 1,761 1,834 1,506 1,634 1,701 Core net interest and commisions 2,006 1,802 1,850 2,062 1,774 1,791 1,756 1,898 6,143 6,169 7,076 7,720 7,219 7,594 8,123 Core capital gains -99 597 -229 112 210 169 170 228 66 410 -42 381 777 260 260 Core banking other income 52 68 60 59 57 73 48 60 428 561 3,074 239 238 260 280 Core earnings, opearational leasing 19 27 22 25 22 28 21 28 0 65 78 93 99 109 120 Total core income 1,978 2,494 1,703 2,258 2,063 2,061 1,995 2,215 6,637 7,205 10,186 8,433 8,334 8,224 8,783 Core banking costs -1,338 -1,294 -1,321 -1,369 -1,268 -1,230 -1,275 -1,283 -4,459 -4,469 -5,231 -5,322 -5,056 -5,008 -4,945 Core earnings before loan losses 640 1,200 382 889 795 831 720 931 2,190 2,736 4,955 3,111 3,277 3,215 3,838 Core loan loss provisions -327 -24 -30 34 -172 105 -77 -46 -1,842 -930 -1,953 -347 -190 -167 -178 Core earnings after loan losses 313 1,176 352 923 623 936 643 886 100 1,806 3,002 2,764 3,088 3,049 3,660 Profit from own porftolio 189 125 -26 152 -145 88 258 150 860 495 101 440 351 325 300 Net Extraordinary 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Pretax profits 502 1,301 326 1,075 478 1,024 901 1,036 851 1,870 3,103 3,204 3,439 3,374 3,960 Tax -109 -305 -76 -238 -94 -215 -180 -228 -255 -493 -14 -728 -717 -742 -871 Net profits incl.
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