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The Hill Times - Canada's Politics and Government Newsweekly http://www.hilltimes.com/dailyupdate/printpage/grits_set_to_lose_longhe...

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April 27, 2011 - http://hilltimes.com/dailyupdate/printpage /grits_set_to_lose_longheld_bastions_in_montreal_and_toronto_to_ndp_dramatic_new_forum_research_survey_says_04-27-2011

BY TIM NAUMETZ

The Liberals are set to lose long-held bastions in and as the NDP closes in on becoming the official opposition with only four full days of campaigning, according to the results of a Forum Research poll conducted in collaboration with The Hill Times.

PARLIAMENT HILL—Liberals are set to lose long-held bastions in Montreal and Toronto as the NDP closes dramatically in on becoming the official opposition with only four full days of campaigning before the election on Monday, according to the results of a Forum Research poll conducted in collaboration with The Hill Times.

The survey conducted Tuesday night puts the NDP firmly in second place, barely behind the Conservative Party, as its support has continued to climb in regions across Canada following the stunning wave the party and its leader, Jack Layton, have generated in .

The poll of voting intentions of 3,150 gave the NDP 31 per cent support nationally, compared to 34 per cent for the Conservatives, who dropped by two percentage polls from the last Forum Research poll on April 21. Support for the Liberal Party, which may have hit rock bottom in the upheaval of the past two weeks, remained relatively unchanged, down to 22 per cent from 23 per cent on April 21.

With so little time left, and voter intentions firming up, it appears Prime Minister , who has urged voters to give him a stable majority government from the outset on March 26, will in the end have his reduced by as many as 10 seats, to a possible 137, Forum Research president Lorne Bozinoff told The Hill Times.

Despite musing about the possibility of an NDP government, notably on the new Sun News Network, Mr. Bozinoff said though Mr. Layton and his NDP appear most likely to form the official opposition, they would need to convert seats in unlikely areas of the country to displace the governing party.

Mr. Bozinoff’s poll and analysis based on past results in key ridings would give the Conservatives 137 seats, the NDP 108 seats if an election were held today, 60 for the Liberals and only three seats for the Bloc Québécois. If these results hold, the seat projections would have a range of plus or minus 10 seats for each party, Mr. Bozinoff emphasized.

“Right now there’s a 30-seat difference, so the NDP would need 15 more seats to switch [with the Conservatives], and those seats are not going to be in Quebec, Quebec is done, I think pretty much,” he said. “So it’s 15 seats the NDP are going to be looking for in the rest of the country outside Quebec, I think that’s going to be tough for them to find those seats, because we’re really down to the hard core seats now.”

If the voting intentions hold, the Liberals stand to lose at least four of the party’s Montreal fortresses to the NDP,

1 of 3 4/27/2011 12:30 PM The Hill Times - Canada's Politics and Government Newsweekly http://www.hilltimes.com/dailyupdate/printpage/grits_set_to_lose_longhe...

including Westmount-Ville Marie, where former astronaut is battling for re-election; Notre-Dame-de- Grace-Lachine, held by prominent Liberal Marlene Jennings since 1997; and perhaps even Papineau, another longtime Liberal seat where , son of Liberal icon Pierre Trudeau, who is struggling to keep a Commons seat. LaSalle-Émard, once held by former prime minister , is also set to fall to the NDP, Mr. Bozinoff told The Hill Times. Incumbent Liberal Lise Zarac is fighting to win the riding.

Several Quebec Conservative seats and most Bloc Québécois seats are also set to be swamped by the surprising NDP wave in Quebec

An analysis based on the poll findings and voter intentions in key ridings across Canada show Mr. Harper and his Conservatives are set to lose three seats to the NDP in the Québec City region— Beauport-Limoilou, where Syvie Boucher, a prominent Tory, is fighting for re-election; Charlesbourg-Haute-Sainte-Charles, won by Daniel Petit, another with the Harper government; and Pontiac, the West Quebec riding where one of Mr. Harper’s most high-profile MPs, Foreign Affairs Minister Lawrence Cannon, is battling to win re-election. The Liberals are set to lose their long-held bastion of Hull-Aylmer across the Ottawa River from Parliament, held by Marcel Proulx, and Gatineau, where former Liberal MP Françoise Boisvin is set to oust Bloc Québécois incumbent Richard Nadeau.

In , although the NDP is set to win at least two Liberal seats in Toronto, Beaches-East York, held by , and Parkdale-High Park, where Liberal star Gerard Kenney is set to lose the riding back to New Democrat Peggy Nash, it is the Conservatives who are poised to gain from the Liberal implosion in the province. The poll results show the Conservatives are closing in on Eglinton-Lawrence, held by prominent Liberal Joe Volpe, a former leadership contender, since 1988, and at least four ridings from Liberals in the .

In the Atlantic, Geoff Regan, the son of former Nova Scotia Liberal premier , faces the prospect of losing his re-election bid in Halifax-West to the NDP. The NDP also stands to win South Shore-St. Margaret’s from Conservative Gerald Keddy and in Newfoundland and Labrador’s St. John’s-Mount Pearl, barely won by Liberal Siobhan Coady in 2008.

“With the NDP continuing to gain steam from coast to coast, and both the Liberal and Conservative parties’ support lagging, the key question now is whether the NDP have the ground troops to deliver their vote on election day,” Mr. Bozinoff said.

The results are based on an interactive voice response survey of 3,150 randomly-selected eligible voters across the country, on April 26, with a margin of error of plus or minus 1.8 per cent 19 times out of 20.

The poll found the Conservatives have lost ground to the NDP in the Atlantic region, Ontario, Manitoba, and Saskatchewan.

Among voters aged 18 to 24, the NDP is most popular at 33 per cent, followed by the Conservatives at 20 per cent and the Liberals at 18 per cent. It is possibly a crucial finding because of the dramatic rise in turnout for the advance polls conducted on the weekend, up 34 per cent from advance polls for the 2008 election. Support for the NDP is also highest among those aged 25 to 34, at 37 per cent. Conservative support peaks among voters aged 65 and over, at 45 per cent.

The poll found Mr. Layton’s leadership rating as a prospective Prime Minister has risen. Thirty-three per cent of the respondents said Mr. Layton would make the best Prime Minister, compared to 32 per cent for Mr. Harper and only 14 per cent for Liberal Leader .

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http://hilltimes.com/dailyupdate/printpage /grits_set_to_lose_longheld_bastions_in_montreal_and_toronto_to_ndp_dramatic_new_forum_research_survey_says_04-27-2011

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