MMAASSTTEERRSS IIINN FFIIINNAANNCCEE EEQQUUIIITTYY RREESSEEAARRCCHH ZON MULTIMEDIA COMPANY REPORT TELECOMMUNICATIONS 06 JUNE 2011 STUDENT: LUÍS CORREIA
[email protected] Positive market growth, strong Recommendation: BUY competition and potential for ZON Price Target FY11: 4.30 € The fight for the best fibre network Price (as of 5-Jun-11) 3.57 € Reuters: ZON.LS, Bloomberg: ZON: PL . Our study of the company ZON Multimedia indicates a price target of 4.30€ (BUY), an upgrade of 20.4%, relative to the 52-week range (€) 2.77-4.12 th price of the 3 June 2011. Market Cap (€m) 1,190.023 Outstanding Shares (m) 309.067 . ZON has a short term competitive advantage over its main competitor, PT, due to the difference in the technologies used Source:Bloomberg (HFC vs FTTH) and due to the market structure (ZON has been ZON vs PSI20 the PayTV market leader,57.9% in 2010) since the Spin off. 0.4 . Free Cash Flow levels will improve significantly for the 0.2 next years (€0M for 2011, +€83M for 2012), because of the end ZON of the cycle of non-recurrent investment (Capex in long term 0 PSI20 contracts, the upgrade of the cable network, and Data Centre 2009 2010 2011 -0.2 investments), initiated in 2008. Capex to revenues has been around 35%, and we estimate a reduction to values around 20% -0.4 starting next year. EBITDA margin increase of 3% expected. Source:Bloomberg . PayTV market still growing (+9.7% FY10) and high potential in Broadband (+11% FY10 and penetration rate of 51%, (Values in € million) 2009 2010 2011E Revenues 823 872 905 below Euro-average).