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Positive Market Growth, Strong Competition and Potential For MMAASSTTEERRSS IIINN FFIIINNAANNCCEE EEQQUUIIITTYY RREESSEEAARRCCHH ZON MULTIMEDIA COMPANY REPORT TELECOMMUNICATIONS 06 JUNE 2011 STUDENT: LUÍS CORREIA [email protected] Positive market growth, strong Recommendation: BUY competition and potential for ZON Price Target FY11: 4.30 € The fight for the best fibre network Price (as of 5-Jun-11) 3.57 € Reuters: ZON.LS, Bloomberg: ZON: PL . Our study of the company ZON Multimedia indicates a price target of 4.30€ (BUY), an upgrade of 20.4%, relative to the 52-week range (€) 2.77-4.12 th price of the 3 June 2011. Market Cap (€m) 1,190.023 Outstanding Shares (m) 309.067 . ZON has a short term competitive advantage over its main competitor, PT, due to the difference in the technologies used Source:Bloomberg (HFC vs FTTH) and due to the market structure (ZON has been ZON vs PSI20 the PayTV market leader,57.9% in 2010) since the Spin off. 0.4 . Free Cash Flow levels will improve significantly for the 0.2 next years (€0M for 2011, +€83M for 2012), because of the end ZON of the cycle of non-recurrent investment (Capex in long term 0 PSI20 contracts, the upgrade of the cable network, and Data Centre 2009 2010 2011 -0.2 investments), initiated in 2008. Capex to revenues has been around 35%, and we estimate a reduction to values around 20% -0.4 starting next year. EBITDA margin increase of 3% expected. Source:Bloomberg . PayTV market still growing (+9.7% FY10) and high potential in Broadband (+11% FY10 and penetration rate of 51%, (Values in € million) 2009 2010 2011E Revenues 823 872 905 below Euro-average). EBITDA 268 289 327 . Triple Play strategy has been a success (55% of the Net Profit 45 38 81 EPS (€) 0.14 0.12 0.25 ZON cable customers have 3play plans). It allowed a Blended ROIC 6.1% 4.8% 8.3% ARPU change of + 15.2% since 2007 for €35.4 in 2010. Dividend Payout 113% 135% 72% FCF 23 -25 0 . International expansion to Africa (through DTH). Joint Dividend Yield 4% 4% 4% venture in Angola, with SOCIP, a company owned by Ms. Isabel EV/Sales (x) 2.02 1.9 1.87 dos Santos (shareholder of ZON, 10% of the shares) will allow the EV/EBITDA (x) 6.2 5.75 5.08 exploration of a country with high potential and low competition. Source: Company data and Nova Equity Research Team After Angola, we believe that ZON will expand to other sub- Saharan African countries, due to the low incremental cost, since the satellite already installed is able to broadcast to these new countries. THIS DOCUMENT IS NOT AN INVESTMENT RECOMMENDATION AND SHALL BE USED EXCLUSIVELY FOR ACADEMIC PURPOSES (SEE DISCLOSURES AND DISCLAIMERS AT END OF DOCUMENT) See more information at WWW.NOVASBE.PT Page 1/36 ZON MULTIMEDIA COMPANY REPORT THIS DOCUMENT IS NOT AN INVESTMENT RECOMMENDATION AND SHALL BE USED EXCLUSIVELY FOR ACADEMIC PURPOSES (SEE DISCLOSURES AND DISCLAIMERS AT END OF DOCUMENT) Table of Contents Company Overview…………………………………………...3 Shareholder Structure………………………………………...5 Technology…………………………………………………….5 Multiple Play Market PayTV market analysis…………………………………8 Impact of the acquisition of TvTel……………………11 Zon vs Meo……………………………………………..13 Digital Terrestrial Television…………………………...14 Fixed Broadband market analysis……………………15 Fixed Telephone………………………………………..17 Mobile…………………………………………………..18 Cinema and Audiovisuals…………………………………….19 International Expansion - ZAP……………………………….21 Valuation…………………………………………………….…22 Comparables…………………………………………………...31 Appendixes (Financial Statements)…………………………...32 Disclosures and Disclaimers…………………………………..36 PAGE 2/36 ZON MULTIMEDIA COMPANY REPORT THIS DOCUMENT IS NOT AN INVESTMENT RECOMMENDATION AND SHALL BE USED EXCLUSIVELY FOR ACADEMIC PURPOSES (SEE DISCLOSURES AND DISCLAIMERS AT END OF DOCUMENT) Company Overview Pay Tv Market share 100.0% ZON Multimedia is a portuguese company, with main activity in areas like PayTV, Broadband and Phone (represent around 89% of the revenues). Audiovisuals 50.0% and Cinema constitute the other business units of this firm. 0.0% ZON results from the Spin off between Portugal Telecom and PT Multimédia, 2Q08 1Q09 4Q09 4Q10 and on the 6th November of 2007, emerges this new company. The CEO is Grupo ZON TV CABO PTC Rodrigo Costa and in 2008 it was agreed a change in the name, becoming ZON Exhibit 1;Source: ICP-ANACOM Multimedia. Pay Tv subscribers market ('000) Leader in the PayTV market with 58% market share (1.6million customers) , 3,000 ranks in the 2nd position in the Broadband market (33% market share) , as well as 2,000 the Fixed Phone one (18.6% market share). Nowadays, it faces great 1,000 competition by the incumbent operator, PTC (Portugal Telecom), which makes 1 0 the Telecoms market in Portugal very active and innovative. 2Q08 1Q09 4Q09 4Q10 These services are provided by means of its vast cable network, mainly based Exhibit 2;Source: ICP-ANACOM % revenues per business unit on the Hybrid Fibre Cable (HFC) technology. ZON also counts with Fibre-to-the- Pay tv,broadband and home (FTTH) (and with Direct to Home - DTH), and for this contributed the phone acquisition of TVTel (investment of around €98 million) in 2008, which had the 6% 5% Cinema greatest FTTH network at that time. Besides TVTel, ZON also acquired Pluricanal Leiria,Torres Vedras and Santarém, as well as BragaTel (investment around €45 million)2. ZON Multimedia has strongly invested in the last 3 years 89% (around €80M per year), in order to have an upgraded network (Upgrade for EuroDocsis 3.0 technology), capable of providing better services. The PayTv Exhibit 3;Source: Company data, 2010 service has the highest offer in terms of channels (either in SD3 or HD4) and an Impact of Eurodocsis 3.0 excellent Video club service, possible through the contracts between ZON Cost per Mbps (€) Audiovisuals and some movie studios, like Universal. The exploration of the 100 Audiovisuals unit allows not only the access to more than 5000 movies, more 60 than the double of the main competitors’ service, but also important synergies 35 20 regarding the premium TvChannels, like Sporttv or TvCine (participations in Sporttv and Dreamia, both with 50% of the capital). 2007 2008 2009 2010 Exhibit 4;Source: Company data ZON has been losing market share in PayTV, however has been capable of sustaining its revenue levels because negative net adds of the last quarters are not very significant due to the very large market share of Zon, and on the other 1 Further information on the Market Analysis section 2 The investment made in acquisition is analysed on the section Impact of TvTel and Grupo Parfitel on Zon 3 Standard definition 4 High Definition PAGE 3/36 ZON MULTIMEDIA COMPANY REPORT THIS DOCUMENT IS NOT AN INVESTMENT RECOMMENDATION AND SHALL BE USED EXCLUSIVELY FOR ACADEMIC PURPOSES (SEE DISCLOSURES AND DISCLAIMERS AT END OF DOCUMENT) Exhibit 5;Source: Company data hand ARPU is increasing, so it balances the process. We highlight this considerable increase in the ARPU, achievable with a strong commitment in Triple Play Market Shares - 2009 providing a good Multiple Play service. This type of service which consists in double or triple play is a way of captivate more clients and achieve more fidelity ZON PT Cabovisão others of the old ones. Also, this has allowed ZON to increase the blended ARPU 8% 14% (nowadays in 35.4€). In the multiple play area, ZON is the leader, and 55.2% of 45% 33% the cable clients are 3play customers. Lately, in 2010 ZON launched the new software IRIS, a new way of watching TV, with several new functionalities, like Exhibit 6;Source: Company data better VOD service, new box, allows interactivity between the computer (internet) Triple Play Market Shares - 2010 and the TV, among others. This Triple play package will continue the consolidation in the leadership of the Multiple play market. ZON PT Cabovisão others Besides these three main services, in 2009, ZON launched its mobile operator, 11% 7% 44% based on a MVNO (Mobile Virtual Network Operator). This consists on the 38% utilization of the Vodafone network, after an agreement between these two operators. The other business units, Cinema and Audiovisuals, despite of generating lower Blended ARPU (€) - Zon margins, are strategically important. ZON Lusomundo Cinemas has 217 cinema 35.4 theatres spread by Portugal and it is seen as a cheap way of entertainment by 30.8 32 33.8 the portuguese people. It is the market leader in this segment and also leader in terms of innovation, having introduced the digitalization of the cinema screens 2007 2008 2009 2010 and also the 3D digital platforms. Regarding ZON Lusomundo Audiovisuals, this Exhibit 7;Source: Company data area purchases and manages the movie transmission rights, allowing some Shareholder Structure - 2010 advantages in otther business units, such as Cinema or the Video Club function, Caixa Geral de Depósitos S.A 10.93% available in ZON box (PayTV). Finally, ZON started in 2009, the process of Grupo Banco Espírito Santo 11.07% internationalization in Angola, through a joint venture ZAP, (30% ZON and 70% Kento Holding Limited 10.00% SOCIP) due to the good relations with Ms. Isabel dos Santos, shareholder of Banco BPI, SA 7.76% Telefónica, SA 5.46% ZON. This project consists on DTH basis, where a satellite, similar to the ones Cofina SGPS, SA 4.91% used in Portugal, broadcasts to the African market. ZON’s management is Grupo/Fundação José Berardo 5.63% considering the expansion for other african countries in the future, since it has Joaquim de Oliveira 4.84% Ongoing Strategy Investments 3.45% low incremental costs. This way, with the same satellite, ZAP can broadcast for Estêvão Neves SGPS, SA 2.94% these new countries. Cinveste, SA 2.82% Grupo Visabeira SGPS, SA 2.15% SGC, SGPS, SA 2.00% Credit Suis e Group AG 1.83% Free float 24.21% total 100.00% Exhibit 8: Shareholder Structure Source: Company data PAGE 4/36 ZON MULTIMEDIA COMPANY REPORT THIS DOCUMENT IS NOT AN INVESTMENT RECOMMENDATION AND SHALL BE USED EXCLUSIVELY FOR ACADEMIC PURPOSES (SEE DISCLOSURES AND DISCLAIMERS AT END OF DOCUMENT) Shareholder Structure As we explained before, the creation of Zon was due to the spin-off between PT and PTM (now Zon).
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