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Mexican Drug Cartels MEXICAN DRUG CARTELS: An Update M ay 17, 2010 This analysis may not be forwarded or republished without express permission from STRATFOR. For permission, please submit a request to [email protected]. 1 STRATFOR 700 Lavaca Street, Suite 900 Austin, TX 78701 Tel: 1-512-744-4300 www.stratfor.com Mexican Drug Cartels: An Update Since STRATFOR’s December 2009 cartel report, the cartel landscape and operating environment in Mexico have seen significant shifts. These have included rifts within the Beltran Leyva Organization, a new tripartite alliance of drug gangs known as the New Federation facing off against Los Zetas and a further decline in the Juarez cartel. They also have included the increased targeting of U.S. interests in Mexico. Perhaps most notably, however, are Mexican federal legislative reforms limiting the use of the Mexican military in the fight against drug trafficking. Taken together, the changes mean more violence probably lies ahead. The security landscape in Mexico remains remarkably fluid nearly three and a half years after President Felipe Calderon launched an offensive against the country’s major drug trafficking organizations (DTOs) in December 2006. Since the December 2009 STRATFOR cartel update, numerous important developments have occurred. Not everything has changed, however: The two main struggles in Mexico are still among the cartels themselves — for lucrative turf — and between the cartels and the Mexican government. Government offensives have continued to weaken and fragment several of Mexico’s largest DTOs and their splinter groups, continuing to thoroughly disrupt the power balance throughout Mexico as DTOs attempt to take over their rivals’ key locations. A Rift in the BLO Perhaps the most notable development in the drug-trafficking landscape has been the Mexican marine operation that resulted in the Dec. 16, 2009 death of BLO leader Arturo “El Jefe de Jefes” Beltran Leyva, at a luxury high-rise condo in Cuernavaca, Morelos state. Beltran Leyva had split from the Sinaloa Federation after a falling-out with Sinaloa leader Joaquin “El Chapo” Guzman Loera near the end of 2007. The BLO quickly rose to the top tier of the Mexican drug trafficking realm, establishing its own cocaine connections to Colombia, a highly professional intelligence apparatus and a brutal enforcement wing led by Edgar “La Barbie” Valdez Villareal. The BLO obtained help from Los Zetas in the spring of 2008 to augment their resources and trafficking capabilities. After the death of Arturo Beltran Leyva, however, things quickly began to unravel for the organization, making it apparent that Arturo was the glue that held the BLO together. Shortly after his death, Arturo’s brother Carlos — who many had suspected would take control of the BLO — was arrested in a traffic stop in Culiacan, Sinaloa state, after he provided a false driver’s license. Weapons and cocaine were found in his vehicle. Carlos Beltran Leyva’s arrest meant that only one Beltran Leyva remained on the loose, Hector, aka “El H.” Hector’s role in the BLO was minimal compared to the other brothers, and many suspected that the reins of the organization would be handed over to the top BLO enforcer and reported close confidant of Arturo, Edgar “La Barbie” Valdez Villarreal. Even so, a federal police intelligence report identified Hector as the new BLO kingpin in January. The decision apparently angered Valdez Villarreal, and because a sizable portion of the BLO was loyal to Valdez Villarreal, a noticeable split in the BLO developed by mid-March. This split has resulted in a dramatic increase in violence between the two factions. Around this same time Hector Beltran Leyva and his close associate Sergio “El Grande” Villarreal Barragan renamed their faction the “Cartel Pacifico Sur,” Spanish for “South Pacific Cartel.” 2 © 2010 STRATFOR 700 Lavaca Street, Suite 900 Austin, TX 78701 Tel: 1-512-744-4300 www.stratfor.com The two former partners’ fight for control of territory once united under Arturo Beltran Leyva has spread from the former BLO headquarters in Morelos state to neighboring regions of Guerrero, Mexico, Puebla and Hidalgo states. The New Federation and Los Zetas Tensions between the Gulf cartel and their former partners Los Zetas finally escalated into open warfare in early February. Reports indicate that the rift between the Gulf cartel and Los Zetas started over the Jan. 18 murder of Los Zetas No. 2 Miguel “Z 40” Trevino Morales’ right-hand man and fellow Zeta leader, Sergio “El Concord 3” Mendoza Pena. Allegedly, an altercation between Mendoza and Gulf cartel No. 2 Eduardo “El Coss” Costilla Sanchez’s men resulted in Mendoza’s murder. After learning of Mendoza’s death, Trevino gave Costilla an ultimatum to hand over those responsible for Mendoza’s death by Jan. 25. The deadline came and went, and Trevino ordered the kidnapping of 16 known Gulf cartel members in the Ciudad Miguel Aleman area as retaliation. From that point, tit-for-tat actions have seen the Gulf-Zeta conflict expand throughout the Tamaulipas border region, as well as the formation of a new alliance known as the New Federation. The New Federation consists of the Gulf cartel and the Zetas’ two main enemies, La Familia Michoacana (LFM) and the Sinaloa Federation. This alliance proved beneficial to all three organizations. The Gulf cartel thus was able to survive, augment its resources and even gain the upper hand against Los Zetas. Both the Sinaloa Federation and LFM have a deep hatred for Los Zetas, as well as a strategic interest in 3 © 2010 STRATFOR 700 Lavaca Street, Suite 900 Austin, TX 78701 Tel: 1-512-744-4300 www.stratfor.com gaining leverage over drug trafficking along the South Texas-Mexico border, turf which Sinaloa had for many years viciously fought over with the Gulf Cartel and their former enforcement arm, Los Zetas. According to local and regional press accounts, the New Federation has wrested the strategic area of Reynosa, Tamaulipas, from the Zetas. STRATFOR sources and some open sources also report that the New Federation tended to be on the winning side in most battles along the South Texas-Mexico border. The Zetas reportedly have had to retreat to Nuevo Laredo and then westward toward Nuevo Leon state capital Monterrey, Mexico’s third-largest city. Monterrey has since experienced a noticeable uptick in violence and cartel activity, including everything from kidnappings to targeted executions. In one instance, between 30 and 50 armed men traveling in up to 10 vehicles kidnapped a total of six people early April 21 from the Holiday Inn at the corner of Padre Mier and Garibaldi streets. The previous day, the body of transit police officer Gustavo Escamilla Gonzalez, who had gone missing April 15, was thrown from a moving vehicle into Lazaro Cardenas Avenue in the Monterrey suburb of San Pedro Garza Garcia. Four flowers and a banner signed by the New Federation reading “This is what happens to those that support the [expletive] Los Zetas” were attached to his corpse, along with a list of 20 other names of law enforcement officials who allegedly support the Zetas. The Monterrey area has long been a Zeta stronghold, meaning the New Federation can be expected to continue to direct its efforts against the Zeta support structure in the Monterrey region as it continues its offensive. Whether the New Federation can destroy Los Zetas completely remains to be seen. Los Zetas are ruthless, formidable opponents who very much remain a force to be reckoned with. STRATFOR sources report that Los Zetas could be preparing to launch a large-scale counterassault in the Tamaulipas border region in the near future, which naturally would amplify the violence. Should the New Federation eliminate Los Zetas from the drug-trafficking scene, it is unclear whether the alliance would stay intact, especially given the past animosity between the Sinaloa Federation and the Gulf Cartel. Rival organized crime groups throughout the world frequently form alliances based on newly shared interests, but once their respective goals have been attained, these alliances typically fall by the wayside, leaving each organized crime group free to pursue its own selfish interests. Should the New Federation survive the destruction of Los Zetas, it could become the dominant criminal entity in the region, something that would restore balance and stability to Mexico’s security environment. Juarez Juarez, Chihuahua state, remains the most violent city in Mexico. The conflict between the Juarez cartel and the Sinaloa Federation has raged for nearly two and a half years. The struggle has taken many forms, from cartel-backed street gangs battling each other block by block, to the military and federal police battling for control of the city from the cartels. Dramatic changes in the operating environment in Juarez have emerged thus far in 2010. In one important change that has greatly affected Juarez, security responsibility nationwide has been transferred from the Mexican military to the federal police. Mexican President Felipe Calderon sees the cartel wars as falling within the jurisdiction of law enforcement, but the extent of the corruption in the country’s federal police upon his 2006 arrival in office forced him to rely on the military for the brunt of security operations against the cartels until January. After extensive reforms in the federal police, newly trained and vetted federal police agents took over all aspects of security operations within Juarez city limits, including the city’s emergency call center (similar to the 911 centers in the United States). The military now operates in rural, open areas outside the city, where their training and equipment is better suited. The effectiveness of this new strategy remains to be seen. The Mexican government will re-evaluate aspects of the federal police strategy in December.
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