MEXICAN DRUG CARTELS: An Update M ay 17, 2010 This analysis may not be forwarded or republished without express permission from STRATFOR. For permission, please submit a request to
[email protected]. 1 STRATFOR 700 Lavaca Street, Suite 900 Austin, TX 78701 Tel: 1-512-744-4300 www.stratfor.com Mexican Drug Cartels: An Update Since STRATFOR’s December 2009 cartel report, the cartel landscape and operating environment in Mexico have seen significant shifts. These have included rifts within the Beltran Leyva Organization, a new tripartite alliance of drug gangs known as the New Federation facing off against Los Zetas and a further decline in the Juarez cartel. They also have included the increased targeting of U.S. interests in Mexico. Perhaps most notably, however, are Mexican federal legislative reforms limiting the use of the Mexican military in the fight against drug trafficking. Taken together, the changes mean more violence probably lies ahead. The security landscape in Mexico remains remarkably fluid nearly three and a half years after President Felipe Calderon launched an offensive against the country’s major drug trafficking organizations (DTOs) in December 2006. Since the December 2009 STRATFOR cartel update, numerous important developments have occurred. Not everything has changed, however: The two main struggles in Mexico are still among the cartels themselves — for lucrative turf — and between the cartels and the Mexican government. Government offensives have continued to weaken and fragment several of Mexico’s largest DTOs and their splinter groups, continuing to thoroughly disrupt the power balance throughout Mexico as DTOs attempt to take over their rivals’ key locations.