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Nancy Cortes-Capstone Presentation The Drug War and the Resurgence of Mexico’s Heroin Trade Nancy Cortés MAIR Capstone Spring 2015 HEROIN http://imgarcade.com/1/heroin-drug-before-after/ The Heroin Surge 800 1,600 700 681 1,400 600 1,200 500 1,000 400 373 800 300 600 200 400 100 200 Thousands of Users(ONDCP) Thousands of Thousands of Users(NSDUH)Thousands of - - 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Past year heroin users (NSDUH) Chronic drug users (ONDCP 2014) Sources: SAMHSA, National Survey on Drug Use and Health; ONDCP, What America's Users Spend on Illegal Drugs: 2000-2010. Heroin Seizures 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 Kilograms Kilograms (kg) 1,000 - U.S. Seizures Source: UNODC. UNODC Statistics: World Drug Report, accessed March 18, 2015. Why? Gateway Theory: Evidence: “About 4 in 5 new heroin addicts report that they got addicted to prescription pills before they ever took heroin.” Original Source: SAMHSA (2013) • 79.5 % heroin users reported prior nonmedical pain reliever (NMPR) use • 31.3% reported past year dependence/abuse • 48.2% NO past year dependence/abuse • Only 3.6% NMPR first-time users began to use heroin within 5 years of their first NMPR use Why? Law Enforcement Crack Down on Non-Medical Use of Pain Relievers Increasing Difficulty to Obtain or Use How are NMPR obtained? (SAMHSA Reformulation of OxyContin 2009) occurred in 2010 • 55% - Relative or friend for free • 18% - Doctor • 5% - Drug dealer • 0.4% - Internet First Time Users Opioid Pain Relievers Source: Kolodny et Al. "The Prescription Opioid and Heroin Crisis: A Public Health Approach to an Epidemic of Addiction." Annual Review of Public Health, 36 (March 2015): 564. Original Source: SAMHSA Alternative Explanation: The War on Drugs Former Mexican President Felipe Calderón Former Colombian President Alvaro Uribe 2006 http://www.atvn.org/news/2011/09/mexican-president-felipe-calderon- comes-los-angeles http://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/%C3%81lvaro_Uribe_V%C3%A9lez Cocaine: Not so Popular Anymore 60 350 50 300 40 250 200 30 150 20 100 USD 2010 10 50 Pure Metric Tons (MT) Tons Pure Metric 0 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Cocaine Consumption Cocaine Expenditures Source: ONDCP, What America's Users Spend on Illegal Drugs: 2000-2010. Cocaine Seizures 350 300 250 200 150 100 Metric Tons (MT) Tons Metric 50 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 20082009 2010 2011 2012 U.S. seizures Colombian seizures Sources: UNODC. UNODC Statistics: World Drug Report, Accessed March 18, 2015, for data on U.S. Seizures; INL, International Narcotics Control Strategy Report, Years 2010, 2011, 2012, and 2013, U.S. Department of State, for data on Colombian seizures, accessed March 18, 2014. Kingpin Strategy Felipe Calderón (2006-2012) Enrique Peña Nieto (2012-) • 25 out of 37 most wanted were killed or • 80 out of 122 most wanted were killed captured (October 2012) or captured (May 2014) http://www.nbcnews.com/news/crime-courts/u-s-seeks- http://www.proceso.com.mx/?p=325528 extradite-mexican-drug-cartel-kingpin-n36796 Fragmentation Mexican DTOs (2007-2012) 2007 2008-2009 2010 (1st Semester) 2010 (2nd Semester) 2011 2012 Sinaloa Cartel Sinaloa Cartel Sinaloa Cartel Sinaloa Cartel Sinaloa Cartel Sinaloa Cartel Beltrán Leyva Organization South Pacific Cartel South Pacific Cartel South Pacific Cartel South Pacific Cartel (BLO) The Hand with Eyes Extinct The New Administration Extinct Independent Cartel of Independent Cartel of Extinct La Barbie Cartel Acapulco Acapulco Cartel del Charro Extinct Extinct Juarez Cartel Juarez Cartel Juarez Cartel Juarez Cartel Juarez Cartel New Juarez Cartel Tijuana Cartel Tijuana Cartel Tijuana Cartel Tijuana Cartel Tijuana Cartel Tijuana Cartel El Teo Faction El Teo Faction Extinct Extinct Extinct Gulf Cartel Gulf Cartel-Los Zetas Gulf Cartel Gulf Cartel Gulf Cartel Gulf Cartel Los Zetas Los Zetas Los Zetas Los Zetas La Familia Michoacana La Familia Michoacana La Familia Michoacana La Familia Michoacana La Familia Michoacana La Familia Michoacana Knights Templar Knights Templar Los Incorregibles Extinct La Empresa Extinct Milenio Cartel Milenio Cartel Milenio Cartel La Resistencia La Resistencia La Resistencia Jalisco Cartel-New Generation Jalisco Cartel-New Generation Jalisco Cartel-New (CJNG) (CJNG) Generation (CJNG) - - - - La Nueva Federación para Vivir Extinct Mejor 6 8 10 11 16 10 Source: Guerrero Gutiérrez, Eduardo, "La estrategia fallida," Nexos, December 2012 The Current Environment of the Mexican Criminal World Fragmentation and Diversification Decentralization • Quickly evolving • Kidnappings • According to PGR (September, 2014): • Extortion • 9 major DTOs • Assassination for hire • 7 DTOs control over 43 criminal gangs • Auto theft • Outsourcing • Resource theft • Human smuggling • Prostitution Rings How is this connected to increased heroin consumption in the U.S.? • Smaller criminal organizations did not have the operational capacity to compete in the cocaine trade • Comes from South America • Sophisticated methods of production • High risk/Costly • Heroin trade profitable diversification opportunity • Locally produced • Easy to produce • Profitable in small quantities $ $ $ $ Humberto Padgett. Sin Embargo. http://www.sinembargo.mx/16-02-2015/1244681i $ Quantity Consumed vs. Dollars Spent 60 350 50 300 250 40 200 30 150 20 Billions of 2010 USD 2010 of Billions 100 10 50 (MTs) Tons Metric Pure 0 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Heroin Consumption Cocaine Consumption Heroin Expenditures Cocaine Expenditures Heroin http://www.daytondailynews.com/news/news/crime-law/area-heroin-deaths-doubled-in-2012/nWcx6/ http://www.streetgangs.com/features/102511_mexican_cartel#sthash.wZ6mR7J7.dpbs Cocaine Average Size of Seizures on Southwestern and Coastal Border Sectors 12.00 11.27 10.00 8.52 8.00 5.51 5.50 6.00 4.00 Kilograms 2.07 1.49 1.52 1.80 2.00 0.00 FY2011 FY2012 FY2013 FY2014 Heroin Cocaine Source: CBP, U.S. Border Patrol Fiscal Year 2011(2012, 2013, 2014) Sector Profile, U.S. Department of Homeland Security Explaining the Success of Mexican Criminal Networks in the U.S. • Low-cost Strategy: • Control over production and distribution • Standardized product • Pizza delivery system • Aggressive Marketing: • Free samples • Customer service http://kut.org/post/police-arrest-72-year-old-man-accused-trafficking-244-heroin-balloons DEA Spokesman told Washington Post: • “The Mexicans are evolving their production abilities and getting more sophisticated… It’s not just black tar anymore.” • Mexican criminal groups now dominate the entire North American Market. Brown Powder Heroin White Powder Heroin http://www.talktofrank.com/drug/heroin http://pixgood.com/white-heroin-powder.html http://peakwater.org/tag/mississippi-river/ Recap 1.Fragmentation and Decentralization 2.Reduced Operational Capacity 3.Reconfiguration of Supply Networks 4.Heroin: Local and Profitable 5.Mexican domination of U.S. heroin Market Broader Implications Balloon Effect 2.0 COCAINE HEROINE Counterintuitive Finding SUPPLY NETWORKS CONSUMER PREFERENCES Thank You.
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