Organized Crime and Violence in Mexico April 2019 April
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Organized Crime and Violence in Mexico Analysis Through Through Analysis 2018 Laura Y. Calderón, Kimberly Heinle, Octavio Rodríguez Ferreira, and David A. Shirk Justice in Mexico Department of Political Science & International Relations University of San Diego April 2019 About Justice in Mexico: Started in 2001, Justice in Mexico (www.justiceinmexico.org) works to improve citizen security, strengthen the rule of law, and protect human rights in Mexico. We generate cutting edge research, promote informed dialogue, and work to find solutions to address these enormously complex issues. As a U.S.-based initiative, our program partners with key stakeholders, experts, and decision makers, lending international support to help analyze the challenges at hand, build consensus about how to resolve them, and foster policies and programs that can bring about change. Our program is presently based at the Department of Political Science and International Relations at the University of San Diego (USD), and involves university faculty, students, and volunteers from the United States and Mexico. From 2005-2013, the project was based at the USD Trans-Border Institute at the Joan B. Kroc School of Peace Studies, and from 2001-2005 it was based at the Center for U.S.-Mexican Studies at the University of California-San Diego. About the Report: This is 10th edition of a series of reports published by Justice in Mexico examining issues related to crime and violence, judicial sector reform, and human rights in Mexico. Since 2010, the Drug Violence in Mexico report series examined patterns of crime and violence attributable to organized crime, and particularly drug trafficking organizations. In commemoration of the 10th year anniversary, the authors have changed the series’ name to “Organized Crime and Violence in Mexico” to reflect the diversification of organized crime over the last decade. This report was authored by Laura Y. Calderón, Kimberly Heinle, Octavio Rodríguez Ferreira, and David A. Shirk, and builds on the work of past Drug Violence in Mexico reports. This publication does not represent the views or opinions of the University of San Diego or Justice in Mexico’s sponsoring organizations © Copyright Justice in Mexico, April 2019. ISBN-10: 0-9988199-1-3 ISBN-13: 978-0-9988199-1-4 Justice in Mexico Department of Political Science & International Relations University of San Diego 5998 Alcalá Park San Diego, CA 92110 Organized Crime and Violence in Mexico Analysis Through 2018 Laura Y. Calderón, Kimberly Heinle, Octavio Rodríguez Ferreira, and David A. Shirk Justice in Mexico Department of Political Science & International Relations University of San Diego April 2019 TABLE OF CONTENTS LIST OF ACRONYMS.................................................................................................................................................... 1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ............................................................................................................................................... 3 I. INTRODUCTION ..................................................................................................................................................... 7 II. UNDERSTANDING MEXICO’S RECENT VIOLENCE ................................................................................ 8 III. FINDINGS: ORGANIZED CRIME AND VIOLENCE IN MEXICO .....................................................11 A. Record Levels of Homicide Continue in 2018 .............................................................................................................. 11 B. Organized-Crime-Style Killings Constitute Major Share of Homicides in 2018 ............................................... 14 C. Shifting Geographic Patterns of Violence ....................................................................................................................... 17 1. Geographic Dispersion Decreases in 2018 ....................................................................................................................................... 17 2. Significant Increases in State and Local Centers of Violence....................................................................................................... 22 3. Distribution of Organized-Crime-Style Homicides ........................................................................................................................ 27 D. Special Victims: Gender, Politics, and the Press ........................................................................................................... 29 1. Males ................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 30 2. Mayors.............................................................................................................................................................................................................. 31 3. Journalists ........................................................................................................................................................................................................ 34 E. Comparing Presidential Administrations .......................................................................................................................... 38 IV. ANALYZING RECENT DEVELOPMENTS IN 2018 .................................................................................39 A. The Shifting Landscape of Organized Crime .................................................................................................................. 40 B. The Trial of “El Chapo” Guzmán ........................................................................................................................................ 41 C. Changing of the Guard: A New President Takes Office ............................................................................................ 43 D. Addressing the Socio-Economic Roots of Violent Crime ......................................................................................... 45 E. Re-Inventing the Federal Prosecutor’s Office ................................................................................................................. 46 F. Debating the Military’s Role in Internal Affairs ............................................................................................................... 48 1. Internal Security Law .................................................................................................................................................................................. 49 2. The National Guard .................................................................................................................................................................................... 50 G. Changing U.S.-Mexico Security Relations ....................................................................................................................... 52 1. Border Security ............................................................................................................................................................................................ 52 2. NAFTA and the USMCA .......................................................................................................................................................................... 52 3. Mérida Initiative Cooperation ................................................................................................................................................................. 53 V. CONCLUDING OBSERVATIONS & RECOMMENDATIONS ..............................................................53 A. Better Monitoring and Analysis of Mexico’s Rule of Law Challenges ................................................................... 54 B. Enhancing Mexican Policing and Prosecutions ............................................................................................................... 54 C. Special Measures to Address Political Violence ............................................................................................................ 54 D. Reinvigorating Mexico’s Anti-Corruption Efforts ........................................................................................................ 55 IV. APPENDIX: DEFINITIONS, DATA, AND METHODOLOGIES ...........................................................56 A. Defining the Problem .............................................................................................................................................................. 56 B. The Available Data Sources and Their Limitations....................................................................................................... 57 C. Government Data on Homicide ........................................................................................................................................ 58 D. Organized Crime-Style Homicides.................................................................................................................................... 59 E. Analytical and Methodological Concerns ......................................................................................................................... 61 LIST OF ACRONYMS AFO Arellano Felix Organization, an organized crime group from Tijuana AK-type Avtomat Kalashnikova, assault rifle used by organized crime groups, e.g., AK- 47 AMLO Andres Manuel