POPULATION AND SETTLEMENT GEOGRAPHY

UNIT-1

In the expression ‘population geography’, the term ‘population’ signifies the subject matter and ‘geography’ refers to the perspective of investigation. Population geography implies the investigation into human covering of the earth and its various facets with reference to physical and cultural environment.

 According to Trewartha, population geography is concerned with the understanding of the regional differences in the earth’s covering of people (Trewartha, 1969:87)  John I. Clarke, suggested that population geography is mainly concerned with demonstrating how spatial variation in population and its various attributes like composition, migration and growth are related to the spatial variation in the nature of places (Clarke, 1972:2)  Wilbur Zelinsky defines it as “a science that deals with the ways in which geographic character of places is formed by and, in turn, reacts upon a set of population phenomena that vary within it through both space and time interacting one with another, and with numerous non- demographic phenomena” (Zelinsky, 1966).  R.J. Proyer suggested that population geography deals with the analysis and explanation of interrelationship between population phenomena and the geographical character of places as they both vary over space and time (Proyer, 1984:25). It is, however, not to suggest that population distribution on the earth surface is determined by physical factors alone, for within the broad framework of physical attractions and constraints, cultural factors strongly influence the way mankind is distributed over the earth (Hornby and Jones, 1980:20). Thus, apart from physical factors, numerous social, demographic, economic, political and historical factors affect population distribution.

Factors Affecting the Distribution of Population

(1) Climate. This is an important factor for determining the spatial distribution of population. The cold regions have the lowest population density. Cold temperature may increase respiratory diseases. In the cold regions, the growing season is very short. Similarly, an extremely hot climate is harmful; it may increase intestinal diseases. High temperature may be associated with humidity; its effect on human life is deleterious. A good climate is a precondition for human settlement. Extremely dry or cold climate is not suitable for human settlement. Thus, regions having a moderate climate have a higher density of population. The materialistic civilization is a product of physical health and mental energy imparted by good climatic environment.

(2) Fertility of the Soil. The quality of the soil is an important determinant of population density. Other things remaining the same, the higher the fertility of the soil, the higher the density of the population. Lateritic tropical soils are unsuitable for improved cropping practices. Alluvial soil is the best for cultivation. The Indo-Gangetic area contains this soil. Therefore, population density is very high there.

(3) Availability of water. Availability of water is a pre-condition for higher density of population. Low rainfall restricts human settlement. The area of low rainfall is not helpful for agricultural development. The density of population decreases with a decrease in rainfall and increases with an increase in rainfall. However, the availability of water does not depend merely on rainfall or rivers, springs or lakes. There may be artificial means for supply of water. In the desert areas, population density is low because sufficient water is not available for survival of human beings, plants and animals.

(4) Configuration of Land. On plains, population density is higher than the population density on sloppy land, mountains and hills. About three-fourths of India’s population lives in the plains. It is possible to have better farming, mobility, transport and communication, etc. in the plains than on rocky lands. In the past, civilizations developed mostly in the plains. In the hilly areas, the amount of cultivable land is small, productivity is low, cost is high and physical existence is uncomfortable.

(5) Geographical Location. Favorable geographical location is a very important factor for higher density of population. Geographical location with respect to communication, trade and traffic, is an important criterion for economic expansion. The concentration of population in large cities is mainly due to the geographical factor of favored location. Transportation facilities increase ' mobility, expand trade and commerce, and minimize the difficulties of movement. With the development of a modern transport system, urban growth is concentrating in the large cities and towns.

(6) Availability of Power Resources. Power resources and mineral wealth influence the concentration of population. For example, Birmingham and New Castle became great centers of human agglomeration. In India, Raniganj, Jharia, Asansol, etc, are fast developing in population because of the industries which are connected with the use of coals iron and otlier r.aw materials. Industrial centers are generally congested. In the regions known for coal, iron ore and the like, density of population becomes high. In the UK, the distribution of population is the distribution of the mining areas of the country,

(7) Supporting Capacity. The means of subsistence is responsible for uneven concentration of population over the world. The higher the supporting capacity of a region, the higher is the density of population. The supporting capacity is determined by so many factors, e,g. fertility of land, productivity, natural resources and so on. Intensive agriculture can support more people than what extensive agriculture can do. The hilly tracts and deserts cannot support people. Thus, density in such areas is low. Agriculture can support more people when it is devoted to the cultivation of cereal crops rather than to the cultivation of fodder crops. The supporting capacity is also increased by the industrial and commercial pursuits. The regions where hunting, herding and other primitive occupations are prevalent, have low density of population. Technological development and development of trade and commerce are mixed together, and they influence the growth of urban centres. Technological changes can open new areas which are more helpful for human habitation,

(8) Nature of Crop Cultivated. The nature of crops influences the density of population. The rice growing tracts, like Orissa, Malabar, West Bengal and the like are centers of dense population. High- yielding crops can support a high density of population. But wheat growing centres have generally low density of population, because wheat growing is suited to extensive agriculture. Rice requires far more care and laborious cultivation. The yield of rice per acre is very high as compared to the yield of other crops. Wheat with its one crop cannot support as large a population as rice can with its three possible crops a year.

(9) Cultural and Non-geographical Factors. In the agricultural sector, the socio-economic outlook is in favour of large families, early marriage and staying on ancestral lands. All these factors have resulted in congestion of human population in the agricultural sectors in India, Japan and China. High child-bearing capacity is sometimes glorified for Strengthening manpower and income-earning, capacity. Ignorance of the techniques of family planning largely contributes to over-population. The government’s policy may encourage emigration/immigration, or may restrict emigration/immigration. Thus, government policy is a significant factor in the spatial distribution of people over the earth. On many occasions, government has changed the distribution within the country for various reasons, to use the resources, to improve military strength and security, or to achieve greater self-sufficiency. People having the same cultural affinity will generally settle at the same place. This will increase the density of population of that place. An improved standard of living, higher cost of education, greater social security and so on will reduce the birth rate. Political forces are sometimes very strong factors for changing the distribution of population. During the Great Leap Forward Movement in China, most of the farmers were shifted from the agricultural sector. Thus, the density of population was reduced considerably. In the matter of distribution of population, both geographical and non- geographical factors play their roles, but none of these factors is individually responsible for any change in the pattern of population distribution. In course of time, some factors loose their significance and new and complex conditions crop up which may make the problem of distribution of population acquire a state of constant flux.

Density of Population and Meaning of Density

The term ‘Density of Population’ refers to the number of persons per square kilometer. In other words, density of population indicates the man-land ratio. This is calculated by dividing the number of persons of a country or region by the total land area. In case the land area is small for a given population, the density will be high; but if the land area is large, then the density will be low. Density depends on many natural and human factors, such as soil, rainfall, climate, economic resources, the stage of economic growth and so on. Since these factors differ in many places, density will also differ. Density measures the degree of population concentration in a particular area. There are many types of density of population. They are discussed below:

Types of Density

(1) Arithmetic Density. The number of persons per square mile or kilometer is Known as simple arithmetic density. In other words, arithmetic density is nothing but the man-land ratio. In the year 1955, the man-land ratio of the world was 20 (per square kilometer). However, this type of density does not speak about the real density because it does not take into account the fact that over 70 per cent of the earth’s surface is water. If only the land areas of the earth are considered, the population density becomes nearly 45 persons per square mile. However, in order to get the real picture, one should have the idea of the pattern of distribution of population. If people are dispersed widely and evenly over an area, the estimated figure for density becomes highly significant. Arithmetic density is too crude a method for measuring the concentration of life.

(2) Economic Density. While calculating the economic density of population, one has to keep in mind the productivity of the area under consideration. The index of population density can be realistic if it can be considered with respect to per square mile of productive land of a region. The productivity of land depends on soil, vegetation, mineral resources, climate and configuration. A piece of fertile land can support more people than a hilly track. If the productive capacity is substituted for square mile, we get a better estimate of density. This type of estimate is known as economic density. But, in reality, it is very difficult to estimate the productive capacity of an area. Economic density (ED) may be expressed by the following formula:

Economic Density (ED)= Po/PR X 100

Where, Po means the index of population and PR is the index of production.

(3) Agricultural Density. Agricultural density means the number of agricultural people' per unit of cultivable land. The agricultural density of India is approximately 435 persons per square mile of cultivable land. The agricultural density of Japan is 1800, of Italy 234, of Germany 125, of Great Britain 49, of France 177, and of Denmark 99. Agricultural density varies from region to region in a country because of the differences in the availability of cultivable land.

(4) Physiological {Nutritional) Density, Physiological density substitutes arable land for total area in the man-land ratio. It omits the unproductive land from consideration. Physiological density takes into account all types of population, whereas agricultural density takes into account only the agricultural population. India’s physiological density per square mile of arable land is 630. The physiological density of Holland is 2,500, Japan 4000, USA 77, Africa 35, and France 470 persons per square mile of arable land.

(5) Critical Density (CD). This density is proposed by Allan. He defines it as ‘‘the human carrying capacity of an area in relation to a given land-use system, expressed in terms of population per square unit of area. It is the maximum population density that a S3^stem is capable of supporting permanently in a given environment without danger to land.” It can be expressed by the following formula:

Critical Density (CD) = 100 (C/F) x A/L

Where C is the extent of cultivated area, F is the extent of fallow land, A is per capita acreage planted, and L is the percentage of land cultivable by traditional methods.

All the above types of density are subject to criticism. Firstly, the ratios are simply the averages, and may not express the real picture when a broad area is taken into account. Secondly, sometimes, the required data are not available for different political and administrative units. Thus, international comparison is almost impossible. Thirdly, the population data are available for administrative units and not for areas having homogeneous population distribution. Because of the above limitations, the different methods cannot be used scientifically for the purpose of analysis. But Still, the concept is very useful and revealing. In fact, density, like distribution, is a function of many factors— social, economic, political, cultural and so on. One cannot explain properly these two important variables without considering the associated complicated factors.

Population growth

Population growth is the most fundamental demographic process with which all other demographic attributes are directly or indirectly associated. Population growth determines density, distribution pattern and composition of population. Therefore, an understanding of the process of population growth is essential to students of population geography which is related to the study of the dynamics of population as it is found on the earth’s surface. In what follows, we undertake a study of the process of population growth, its determinants, components and some broad theories and ideas relating to it.

Meaning

Population growth refers to the growth of the human population in a particular area during a specific period of time. The growth may be positive or negative. Population growth may be due to natural increase. Rates of natural increase or decrease, that is, rates computed on the balance of births and deaths, give some measure of the overall gain or loss in a population through the addition of births and the subtraction of deaths. The annual rate of natural increase can be computed simply by subtracting the crude death rate from the crude birth rate. The change in the rate of growth of population can be measured either in terms of percentage or in absolute numbers. For calculating the rate of growth of population, the actual population of a given area during a particular time-period is used. Percentage rate of growth is usually calculated for a particular period. The absolute growth of population can be found out by subtracting the population of an earlier date from that of the later point in time.

Measurement o£ Population Growth

Geometric mean is most frequently used for measuring the rate of growth of population. For example, if a city had a population of 2,00,000 in a given year and 2,40,000 ten years later, we may find out the annual per cent of change. The increase per year per cent is 2. However, if we compute 2 percent increase each year over the preceding year, the population figure turns out to be 2,43,800. This means that the correct figure is slightly smaller than 2 per cent because we are actually compounding. The average annual per cent increase may be computed by applying the formula:

Pn=Po (l+r)n, where, Po=population at the beginning of the period, Pn=the population at the end of the period, r=rate of change, n=number of time-periods.

Estimated Growth Growth Population Population Rank Country population (%) (%) 2010– 1990 2010 1990–2010 2018 2018 World 5,306,425,000 6,895,889,000 7,503,828,180 30.0% 1 China 1,139,060,000 1,341,335,000 1,384,688,986 17.1% 3.23% 2 India 873,785,000 1,224,614,000 1,296,834,042 40.2% 5.90% United 3 253,339,000 310,384,000 329,256,465 22.5% 6.08% States 4 Indonesia 184,346,000 239,871,000 262,787,403 30.1% 9.55% 5 Brazil 149,650,000 194,946,000 208,846,892 30.3% 7.13% 6 Pakistan 111,845,000 173,593,000 207,862,518 55.3% 19.74% 7 Nigeria 97,552,000 158,423,000 203,452,505 62.4% 28.42% 8 Bangladesh 105,256,000 148,692,000 159,453,001 41.3% 7.24% 9 Russia 148,244,000 142,958,000 142,122,776 -3.6% -0.58% 10 Japan 122,251,000 128,057,000 126,168,156 4.7% -1.48%

UNIT-2

Population theories

Malthusian theory of Population In an inquiry concerning the improvement of society, the mode of conducting the subject which naturally presents itself, is,

(1), to investigate the causes which have nither to impeded the progress of mankind towards happiness; and

(2), to examine the probability of the total or partial removal of these causes in the future. The principal object of this essay is to examine the effects of one great cause intimately united with the very nature of man.

That is the constant tendency of all animated life to increase beyond the nourishment provided for it. Through the animal and vegetable kingdoms Nature has scattered the seeds of life abroad with the most profuse and liberal hand. If the germs of existence contained in the earth could freely develop themselves, they would fill millions of worlds in the course of a few thousand years. Necessity, that imperious, all-pervading law of nature restrains them and man alike within prescribed bounds. The effects of nature’s check on man are complicated. Impelled to the increase of his species by an equally powerful instinct, reason interrupts his career, and asks whether he may not bring beings into the world, for whom he cannot provide the means of support.

If he hear not this suggestion, the human race will be constantly endeavoring to increase beyond the means of subsistence. But as, by that law of our nature which makes food necessary to the life of man, population can never actually increase beyond the lowest nourishment capable of supporting it, a strong check on population, namely, the difficulty of acquiring food, must be constantly in operation. This difficulty must fall somewhere, and must necessarily be severely felt in some or other of the various forms of misery by a large portion of mankind. This conclusion will sufficiently appear from a review of the different states of society in which man has existed. But the subject will be seen in a clearer light if we endeavor to ascertain what would be the natural increase in population, if left to exert itself with perfect freedom. Many extravagant statements have been made of the length of the period within which the population of a country can double.

To be perfectly sure we are far within the truth, we will take a slow rate, and say that population, when unchecked, goes on doubling itself every 25 years, or increases in a geometrical ratio. The rate according to which the productions of the earth may be supposed to increase, it will not be so easy to determine. However, we may be perfectly certain 195 MICROECONOMICS that the ratio of their increase in a limited territory must be of a totally different nature from the ratio of the increase in population.

A thousand millions are just as easily doubled every 25 years by the power of population as a thousand. But the food will by no means be obtained with the same facility. Man is confined in room. When acre has been added to acre until all the fertile land is occupied, the yearly increase in food must depend upon the melioration of the land already in possession. This is a fund which, from the nature of all soils, instead of increasing must be gradually diminishing. But population, could it be supplied with food, would go on with unexhausted vigor, and the increase in one period would furnish a power of increase in the next, and this without any limit. If it be allowed that by the best possible policy the average produce could be doubled in the first 25 years, it will be allowing a greater increase than could with reason be expected. In the next 25 years it is impossible to suppose that the produce could be quadrupled. It would be contrary to our knowledge of the properties of land. Let us suppose that the yearly additions which might be made to the former average produce instead of decreasing as they certainly would do, were to remain the same; and that the product of the land might be increased every 25 years, by a quantity equal to what it at present produces. The most enthusiastic speculator can not suppose a greater increase than this.

Even then the land could not be made to increase faster than in an arithmetical ratio. Taking the whole earth, the human species would increase as the numbers 1, 2, 4, 8, 16, 32, 64, 128, 256, and subsistence as 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9. In two centuries the population would be to the means of subsistence as 256 to 9; in three centuries as 4,096 to 13, and in two thousand years the difference would be almost incalculable. In this supposition, no limits whatever are placed to the produce of the earth. It may increase forever and be greater than any assignable quantity; yet still the power of population, being in every period so much greater, the increase of the human species can only be kept down to the level of the means of subsistence by the constant operation of the strong law of necessity, acting as a check upon the greater power. But this ultimate check to population, the want of food, is never the immediate check except in cases of famine. The latter consists in all those customs and all those diseases, which seem to be generated by a scarcity of the means of subsistence; and all those causes which tend permanently to weaken the human frame.

The checks may be classed under two general heads— the preventative and the positive. The preventative check, peculiar to man, arises from his reasoning faculties, which enable him to calculate distant consequences. He sees the distress which frequently presses upon those who have large families; he cannot contemplate his present possessions or earnings, and calculate the amount of each share, when they must be divided, perhaps, among seven or eight, without feeling a doubt whether he may be able to support the offspring which probably will be brought into the world. Other considerations occur. Will he lower his rank in life, and be obliged to give up in great measure his former habits? Does any mode of employment present itself by which he may reasonably hope to maintain a family? Will he not subject himself to greater difficulties and more severe labor than in his present state? Will he be able to give his children adequate educational advantages? Can he face the possibility of exposing his children to poverty or charity, by his inability to provide for them? These considerations prevent a large number of people from pursuing the dictates of nature. The positive checks to population are extremely various, and include every cause, whether arising from vice or misery, which in any degree contributes to shorten the natural duration of human life. Under this head may be enumerated all unwholesome occupations, severe labor, exposure to the seasons, extreme poverty, bad nursing of children, great towns, excesses of all kinds, the whole train of common diseases, wars, plagues, and famines.

The theory of population is resolvable into three propositions:

(1) Population is necessarily limited by the means of subsistence.

\(2) Population invariably increases where the means of subsistence increase, unless prevented by some very powerful and obvious checks.

(3) These checks which keep population on a level with the means of subsistence are all resolvable into moral restraint, vice, and misery

Optimum Theory of Population

Definitions of Optimum Theory of Population:

The concept of optimum population has been defined differently by Robbins, Carr-Saunders and Dalton. Robbins defines it as “the population which just makes the maximum returns possible is the optimum population or the best possible population Carr-Saunders defines it as “that population which produces maximum economic welfare.”According to Dalton, “Optimum population is that which gives the maximum income per head.”If we were to examine these views, we find that Dalton’s view is more scientific and realistic which we follow

Assumptions of Optimum Theory of Population:

1. The natural resources of a country are given at a point of time but they change every time.

2. There is no change in techniques of production.

3. The stock of capital remains constant.

4. The habits and tastes of the people do not change.

5. The ratio of working population to total population remains constant even with the growth of population.

6. Working hours of labour do not change.

7. Modes of business organisation are constant.

Explanation to the Optimum Theory of Population:

Given these assumptions, the optimum population is that ideal size of population which provides the maximum income per head. Any rise or diminution in the size of the population above or below the optimum level will diminish income per head.

Given the stock of natural resources, the technique of production and the stock of capital in a country, there is a definite size of population corresponding to the highest per capita; income. Other things being equal, any deviation from this optimum-sized population will lead to a reduction in the per capita income.

If the increase in population is followed by the increase in per capita Population income, the country is under-populated and it can afford to increase its population till it reaches the optimum level. On the contrary, if the increase in population leads to diminution in per capita income, the country is over- populated and needs a decline in population till the per capita income is maximised. This is illustrated in Fig.1

In the figure population is measured along the horizontal axis and per capita income on the vertical axis. In the beginning there is under-population and per capita income increases with population growth, the per capita income of OB population is BA; which is less than the maximum per capita income level NM. The ON size of population represents the optimum level where per capita income NM is the maximum.

If there is a continuous increase in population from ON to OD then the law of diminishing returns applies to production. As a result, the per capita production is lowered and the per capita income also declines to DC due to increase in population. Thus ND represents over-population. This is the static version of the theory.

But the optimum level is not a fixed point. It changes with a change in any of the factors assumed to be given. For instance, if there are improvements in the methods and techniques of production, the output per head will rise and the optimum point will shift upward.

What the optimum point for the country is today, may not be tomorrow, if the stock of natural resources increases and the optimum point will be higher than before. Thus the optimum is not a fixed but a movable point.

This is explained in terms of Cannan’s theory. According to Cannan, “At any given time, increase of labour up to a certain point is attended by increasing proportionate returns and beyond that point further increase of labour is attended by diminishing proportionate returns.”

The per capita income is the highest at the point where the average product of labour starts falling. This point of maximum returns is the point of optimum population. This is illustrated in Figure 2.

The size of population is measured on the horizontal axis and the average product of labour on the vertical-axis. AP is the average product of labour or income per head curve. Upto ON, increase in population leads to a rise in the average product of labour and per capita income.

Beyond ON, the average product of labour and per capita income fall. Hence when population is ON, the per capita income is the highest at point M. Thus, ON is the optimum level of population. To the left of ON, the country is under-populated and beyond ON, it is over-populated.

However, ON is not a fixed point. If due to inventions there are improvements in the techniques of production, the average product of labour might increase and push the level of per capita income upward so that the optimum point rises. This is shown in Figure 2 where the AP1 curve represents the higher average product of labour and point M1 shows the maximum per capita income at the new optimum level of population ON1.

Dalton’s Formula:

Dalton has deduced over-population and under- population which result in the deviation from the optimum level of population in the form of a formula. The deviation from the optimum, he calls maladjustment. Maladjustment is a function of two variables, the optimum level of population O and the actual level of population A. Then the maladjustment is

M =

When M is positive, the country is over-populated, and if it is negative, the country is under- populated. When M is zero, the country possesses optimum population. Since it is not possible to measure O, this formula is only of academic interests.

Criticisms of Optimum Theory of Population:

Despite the superiority of the Optimum theory over the Malthusian theory of population, it has serious weaknesses.

(1) No Evidence of Optimum Level:

The first weakness of the optimum theory is that it is difficult to say whether there is anything like an optimum population. There is no evidence about the optimum population level in any country.

(2) Impossible to Measure Optimum Level:

The optimum level of population is impossible to measure quantitatively. As pointed out by Prof. Bye, it is “impossible to calculate it with any semblance of exactness for any country at any time.”

(3) Optimum Level Vague:

Optimum population implies a qualitative as well as a quantitative ideal population for the country. The qualitative level implies not only physique, knowledge and intelligence, but also the best age composition of population. These variables are subject to change and are related to an environment. Thus the optimum level of population is vague.

(4) Correct Measurement of Per Capita Income not Possible:

Another difficulty pertains to the measurement of per capita income in the country. It is not an easy task to measure changes in per capita income. The data on per capita income are often inaccurate, misleading and unreliable which make the concept of optimum as one of doubtful validity.

(5) Neglects the Distributional Aspect of increase in Per Capita Income:

Even if it is assumed that per capita income can be measured, it is not certain that the increase in population accompanied by the increase in per capita income would bring prosperity to the country. Rather, the increase in per capita income and population might prove harmful to the economy if the increase in per capita income has been the result of concentration of income in the hands of a few

rich. Thus the optimum theory of population neglects the distributional aspect of increase in the per capita income.

(6) Optimum Level not fixed but Oscillating:

The concept of the optimum population assumes that the techniques of production, the stock of capital and natural resources, the habits and tastes of the people, the ratio of working population to total population, and the modes of business organisation are constant. But all these factors are constantly changing. As a result, what may be the optimum at a point of time might become less or more than the optimum over a period of time. This is illustrated in Figure 3.

AP1 is the average product of labour or per capita income curve. Suppose there is an innovation which brings a change in the techniques of production. It shifts the per capita income curve to AP2. As a result, the optimum level of population rises from ON1 to ON2with the increase in per capita income from to N1M1 to N2M2. If the per capita income rises further due to a change in any of the above assumed factors, the AP2 curve will shift upward. The AP2 or AP2 curve can also shift downward if, for instance, the per capita income falls due to an adverse change in the given factors.

If the locus of all such points like M1, M2 etc., is joined by a line, we have the PI curve which represents the path of the movement of the optimum population as a result of changes in the economic factors. If, however, the actual level of population is assumed to be ON0 and the optimum level ON1, then the country is overpopulated. If ON2 is the optimum level, the country is under- populated. Thus the optimum is not a fixed level but an oscillating one.

(7) Neglects Social and Institutional Conditions:

The optimum theory considers only the economic factors which determine the level of population. Thus it fails to take into consideration the social and institutional conditions which greatly influence the level of population in a country.

A lower level of optimum population may be justified from the economic viewpoint, but such a level may be harmful keeping in view the defence considerations of the country. For instance, economic consideration may prevent us from having a large population but the danger from foreign aggression may necessitate a very large population to safeguard our territorial integrity. Thus the optimum theory is imperfect and one-sided.

(8) No Place in State Policies:

The concept of optimum population has no place in the policies of modern states. While fiscal policy aims at increasing or stabilishing the level of employment, output and income in a country, no reference is made to the optimum level of population.

(9) Does not Explain Determinants of Population Growth:

It does not explain the reasons for rise or fall in birth and death rates, the influence of urbanisation and migration on population growth, etc.

(10) The theory fails to explain about the nature of an optimum path of population growth.

(11) It does not explain how the optimum level once reached can be maintained.

The demographic transition

Frank W. Notestein (1902-1983)

To understand the variety of demographic regimes found across the world, it is necessary to understand the history of demographic change globally.

The demographic transition theory is a generalised description of the changing pattern of mortality, fertility and growth rates as societies move from one demographic regime to another. The term was first coined by the American demographer Frank W. Notestein in the mid-twentieth century, but it has since been elaborated and expanded upon by many others.

There are four stages to the classical demographic transition model:

 Stage 1: Pre-transition

 Characterised by high birth rates, and high fluctuating death rates.

 Population growth was kept low by Malthusian "preventative" (late age at marriage) and "positive" (famine, war, pestilence) checks.

 Stage 2: Early transition

 During the early stages of the transition, the death rate begins to fall.

 As birth rates remain high, the population starts to grow rapidly.

 Stage 3: Late transition

 Birth rates start to decline.

 The rate of population growth decelerates.

 Stage 4: Post-transition

 Post-transitional societies are characterised by low birth and low death rates.

 Population growth is negligible, or even enters a decline.

These four stages are depicted on the graph below.

Stage 1

In stage one, pre-industrial society, death rates and birth rates are high and roughly in balance. An example of this stage is the United States in the 1800s. All human populations are believed to have had this balance until the late 18th century, when this balance ended in Western Europe. In fact, growth rates were less than 0.05% at least since the Agricultural Revolution over 10,000 years ago.

Population growth is typically very slow in this stage, because the society is constrained by the available food supply; therefore, unless the society develops new technologies to increase food production (e.g. discovers new sources of food or achieves higher crop yields), any fluctuations in birth rates are soon matched by death rates.

Stage 2

In stage two, that of a developing country, the death rates drop rapidly due to improvements in food supply and sanitation, which increase life spans and reduce disease. Afghanistan is currently in this stage.

The improvements specific to food supply typically include selective breeding and crop rotation and farming techniques. Other improvements generally include access to technology, basic healthcare, and education. For example, numerous improvements in public health reduce mortality, especially childhood mortality. Prior to the mid-20th century, these improvements in public health were primarily in the areas of food handling, water supply, sewage, and personal hygiene. Another variable often cited is the increase in female literacy combined with public health education programs which emerged in the late 19th and early 20th centuries.

In Europe, the death rate decline started in the late 18th century in northwestern Europe and spread to the south and east over approximately the next 100 years. Without a corresponding fall in birth rates this produces an imbalance, and the countries in this stage experience a large increase in population.

Stage 3

In stage three, birth rates fall. Mexico’s population is at this stage. Birth rates decrease due to various fertility factors such as access to contraception, increases in wages, urbanization, a reduction in subsistence agriculture, an increase in the status and education of women, a reduction in the value of children’s work, an increase in parental investment in the education of children and other social changes. Population growth begins to level off. The birth rate decline in developed countries started in the late 19th century in northern Europe.

While improvements in contraception do play a role in birth rate decline, it should be noted that contraceptives were not generally available nor widely used in the 19th century and as a result likely did not play a significant role in the decline then.

It is important to note that birth rate decline is caused also by a transition in values; not just because of the availability of contraceptives.

Stage 4

During stage four there are both low birth rates and low death rates. Birth rates may drop to well below replacement level as has happened in countries like Germany, Italy, and Japan, leading to a shrinking population, a threat to many industries that rely on population growth. Sweden is considered to currently be in Stage 4. As the large group born during stage two ages, it creates an economic burden on the shrinking working population. Death rates may remain consistently low or increase slightly due to increases in lifestyle diseases due to low exercise levels and high obesity and an aging population in developed countries. By the late 20th century, birth rates and death rates in developed countries leveled off at lower rates.

Age composition of population

The population of an area includes persons of various ages. The age composition is important for understanding the natality and mortality of a community. Age differences may create social and economic differences. The importance of age composition is discussed in the next section.

Importance of Age Composition

The age composition of a population (sometimes called age structure or age distribution) is one of the most basic characteristics of a population. One cannot proceed very far in the study of population growth or migration without an examination of age composition. AH aspects of an individual’s or community’s life — social attitudes, economic activities, political propensities and so on, are affected by age. Age influences ' the needs, thinking, attitude and behaviour of people. The age structure very

much influences the socio-economic life of a nation. Age data are functional to those responsible for planning different types of activities. The LIC depends very much on the age data. Age data are also required for employment, marriage, retirement and a number of other social and economic activities of life. The age structure enables us to determine the proportion of the labour force in the total population. It is helpful in finding out the dependency load. It indicates the approximate number of people who are attaining working age and retirement. Thus, an estimate may be made of the net addition to the Working force for which new jobs are to be created. The relative proportion of producers and consumers will determine the capacity of a community to save and invest. Consumption and production also depends to a significant extent on the age structure. When the dependency load is very high, there is a severe pressure on the working population. This requires heavy demographic investment which is mainly unproductive in nature.

For understanding the future growth of population, it is necessary to know the age structure because it affects the marriage rate and reproductive performance of the population. Thus, on the basis of age structure, it is possible to know whether a country has a progressive or regressive type of population. The study of age structure also helps us in knowing the number of old persons for whom old-age pensions may have to be provided by the state.

However, age data in a country are most likely to be inaccurate. Apart from ignorance and carelessness, there are many reasons to hide the actual age of persons. The parents of unmarried girls who have reached marriageable age will under- state the age of the girls. Similarly, widowers and bachelors (who are becoming old), will give lower ages, particularly if they are eager to marry. Another reason for giving a wrong age is the superstitious belief that it is unwise to state one’s age correctly as it is liable to reduce one’s span of life.

For the population geographers it is very difficult to map the age statistics. Secondly, not all countries conduct censuses to collect regularly the data for age. In LDCs, people are also ignorant about their exact dates of birth. Mostly, in the case of females instances of understatement regarding age seem to be very high. The population geographers, while making use of age composition data, do take the help of different devices like age grouping, age pyramids and age indices. These techniques can help to minimize the incidence of errors in age statistics.

Determinants of Age Structure

The age structure of a population is determined basically by three factors — fertility, mortality and migration. Fertility determines the population proportion in different age categories. The countries which have high fertility rates have a large proportion of their population in the young age group (0- 15).

The life expectancy in these countries being low, there is a small proportion of population in the old age group (60 and above). Thus, in these countries, the population is heavily weighted in favour of the young age group. These countries are typically less-developed. However, the countries which have low fertility and high life expectancy are characterised by small proportion of people in the

young age group and relatively large proportion of people in the old age group. Most of the DCs fall in this category.

If mortality is low among the young and old it results in high and increasing proportion of persons in the higher age groups. On the other hand, declining mortality in LDCs increases the proportion of people in the young age group. .

Migration is very often age- and sex-selective. Generally, the people in the working age group (15- 45) are found to be extremely mobile as compared to the old and very young people. Thus, the place wherefrom migration takes place has a smaller proportion of people in the working age group, but the place of in-migration witnesses a larger proportion of such people. In this way, the age structure of a country undergoes changes over time. The age structure is also influenced by natural calamities like war, famine, pestilence, and the like.

Age data are conveniently analysed with reference to devices like age pyramids, age groups and age indices. These devices are discussed in the following sections.

Age Pyramids

The age pyramid is constructive for analysing die age composition of a population. The usual procedure for graphically representing the age structure of a population is by constructing ‘age pyramids’. The vertical axis is graduated in groups of years, usually 5, beginning with 0 at the base and up to 80 or 90 at the top; and the horizontal axis shows either the numbers or the percentage of males and females within these groups. Under normal conditions, the number of people at each year age will be fewer than in the preceding year. It is for this reason that the age structure of population graphically represented tends to take the shape of a pyramid.

Normally, the males are kept to the left and females to the right side of the vertical axis. The shape of the pyramid will differ according to the relative proportion of the different age- groups in the total population. Certain basic types of pyramids may be distinguished. First, if a population has unchanging fertility and mortality it is a stationary population and each step in the pyramid differs from the one below only by the number of deaths in that age group. Death, emigration and reduced fertility will affect the shape of the pyramid in those groups which are involved. If, however, the number of births increases from year to year, the population type will become progressive and the pyramid will widen at the base; decline in the number of births causes a regressive population with a pyramid which is narrow at the base and has the shape of a bell. A high rate of growth of fertility (baby boom) will enlarge the base of the pyramid. But low fertility and death will reduce the base of the pyramid. The LDCs have broad- based pyramids, whereas the DCs have narrow-based pyramids.

The representative LDCs have a broad base but a narrow tip. This reflects a situation in which there is a large percentage of children and a small percentage of elders in the population. In the industrialised countries, however, the pyramid has a narrow base and tapers off much more gradually. The United Kingdom is a typical example, although in the United States of America the recent rise in fertility has caused the base to widen. In the case of India, the age pyramid has a very wide base because of the large child population; but it tapers towards a point more sharply than in the case of any other country, indicating the low longevity of the Indian population. There are relatively very few people in India who live beyond the age of 50.

However, the age pyramids do not permit cartographic representation. Thus, they are not helpful for making regional comparison of age structure.

Sex Composition of Population

Communities differ in sex composition, i.e,, composition of male and female. Sex composition is a subject of great interest to the population geographer. Sex ratio is an index of the socio-economic conditions of an area. It is an important tool for regional analysis. It has a profound effect on the demographic structure of a region. It is an important feature of any landscape. It is a function of three basic factors: sex ratio at birth, sex ratio at death and sex-selectivity among migrants.

Definition of Sex Ratio

Sex ratio signifies the number of females per thousand males. An inverse enunciation of the ratio ("i.e,, the number of males per 1000 females) is also given sometimes. Sex ratio may vary among different regions. In the USA, the sex ratio is high (males arc larger in number). Primary sex ratio is the sex ratio at the time of conception, secondary sex ratio is the ratio at the time of birth, and tertiary sex ratio is the ratio found at the time of enumeration.

Importance of Sex Ratio

Sex ratio generally influences the form and tempo of life in any country. The balance between the sexes is an important aspect of population structure. It is important for the following

Reasons;

(1) It affects the labour supply through marriage and fecundity. If the proportion of males is higher than that of females, more workers will be available.

(2) The excess of males tends to lower the age of marriage for females. Early marriages lead to considerable disparity in age between husbands and wives. This difference in age tends to increase widowhood.

(3) Early marriage of females may also lead to increased fertility and population growth.

(4) Sex ratio which is affected by fertility, mortality and migration plays an important part in determining birth and death rates in a community.

(5) It is found that a population which has a higher pro- portion of females also has a relatively lower death rate as compared with a population where males preponderate,

(6) An adverse sex ratio (i.e., when the proportion of females is small) leads to the emergence of many social and moral evils like prostitution and S.T.D., impairing the morale of the workers.

(7) Sex ratio is an important factor for determining the death rate of any population. Women generally have lower death rates than men at most ages in most countries. If females constitute more than half of the population, the total death rate is considerably affected. The scarcity of either women or men of adult age will reduce the marriage rate; and this will affect the crude birth rate.

(8) Sex ratios of a population are related to the extent of employment of women outside home, status of women, and so on.

Determinants of Sex Ratio

Sex ratio is influenced by birth, death and migration. Apart from these factors, natural calamities like war, famine, earth- quake and so on will have their effects on sex ratio. It also depends on the status of women, nature of enumeration of sexes in a particular population of an area and the like. Sex ratio can be understood with reference to

(i) sex ratio at birth

(ii) sex ratio at death, and

(iii) sex selectivity among migrations.

Female sex is biologically stronger than male sex. Consequently, the females tend to outlive the men. In almost all countries the male mortality rate is higher than female mortality rate at all ages. As the male infants have higher mortality rates, the sex ratio becomes balanced at about 4 years of age. After this age, the imbalance begins to grow, so that at the age of 95 or so, there may be two thousand females per 1,000 males. In LDCs, female mortality is higher than that of males. The following may be the reasons for higher female mortality and lower sex ratio in LDCs.

Reasons for Lower Sex Ratio (Less females per 1,000 males)

(i) Girls in LDCs are not as carefully looked after as boys. As a result, infant mortality among girls is very high.

(ii) Early marriage, absence of birth control, children at early age, and frequency of birth, lead to the death of many women in the reproductive ages. At the time of census, women are not counted

properly because of their illiteracy and social customs which keep them behind curtains, resulting in under-reporting of female population.

(iii) Migration from LDCs has largely been male-dominated,

(iv) The proportion of female births is lower in LDCs than in the DCs.

(v) In the past, female infanticide was very common.

(vi) Early marriage leads to diseases of the uterus and vagina. Early intercourse is injurious to health. Thousands of child wives march from the nuptial bed to the funeral pyre every year.

UNIT-3

Fertility

Fertility indicates the actual reproductive performance of a woman or a group of women. A woman is considered fertile if she has ever borne a child. Fecundity, on the other hand, denotes the ability to bear a child, and has no reference to whether or not a woman actually has borne a child. A common measure of fertility, especially where adequate vital statistics and other types of direct information are lacking is the ratio of children under 5 years of age to women in the child-bearing ages as computed from census data on the total population. Thus, fertility rate is determined by the number of children born every year to 1000 women of child-bearing ages (15-45).

The crude birth rate of population in any area is obtained by dividing the number of births recorded in that area during a year by its total population (preferably the mid-year popu- lation). If we multiply this by 1009, we get the birth rate per 1000 of population. All births are not generally recorded. Therefore, the crude birth rate underestimates the rate of growth of population. The corrected birth rate takes into account both the recorded birth and the possible unrecorded birth. In other words.

Corrected birth rate =Birth in a year recorded + Possible birth x 1000 Mid-year population

General fertility rate is calculated by dividing the number of children born by the number of mothers in the reproductive age-group (15-45), and the sum is multiplied by 1000. In order to calculate the completed fertility rate, we divided the total number of children born by the total number of mothers in all the age-groups, and the sum multiplied by 1000. Here, we take into account the children of any mother (unmarried, widow, married, etc.) of any age-group. The birth rate can also be made age- specific. Age specific birth rates of an area are obtained by dividing the number of births to mothers of each age by the number of women of this age, and then multiplying by 1000; sometimes we are interested in knowing the total fertility rate. In order to measure correctly the population growth, we calculate the number of children born per thousand females in the child-bearing age divided into different age-groups. This leads to the total fertility rate which is calculated by adding up the specific fertility rates belonging to different age-groups. The total fertility rate is the mean number of children which a female aged 15 can except to bear if she lives until at least the age of 50, provided she is subject to the given fertility conditions over the whole of her child-bearing period. The total fertility rate for a particular area during a given period is a summary measure of fertility conditions operating in that area during that period. It is an estimate of the number of children a cohort of 1000 women would bear if .they all went through their reproductive years exposed to the age-specific fertility rates in effect at a particular time. This method is better than some other methods because it concerns itself only with the women who are in the fertility age-group; and it is not influenced by the general age groups. In order to make comparison, standardized birth rate may be calculated. Standardized birth rate shows what the birth rate for a group of women would be if these women had the same age distribution as those in some standard population. It is computed by taking age specific birth rate for women and multiplying each of these rates by the number of women in the standard population in the corresponding age category of each one million persons in the standard population. The sum of these products divided by One million persons is the standard population. The sum of these products divided by one million and multiple by 1000 is the standard birth rate.

Another index of fertility is the reproduction or replacement rate. In order to calculate the gross reproduction rate, we do not take into account the number of males, and the women having no reproductive power and also the male children born. We take into account only the number of mothers who have produced children, and the female children born. The female children are the future mothers. The gross reproduction rate (G.R.R.) is calculated in the following way:

G.R.R. = Number of female children born of mothers of an age-group X 1000

Total number of mothers of that age-group

What is of course more meaningful is not the gross reproduction rate but the net reproduction rate (N.R.R.). Net reproduction rate indicates the average number of future mothers born to a mother of today. It is an index of self-replacement potentiality of population with given age-specific rate of fertility and mortality. The N.R.R. makes allowance for the fact that there would be deaths in any group of females between the time they are born and the time at which they complete their reproductive life. The N.R.R. is computed by applying the age-specific birth rates to the number of years lived in each group by the survivors of the original cohort after mortality has operated, summing the products, and then applying the ratio between the females born and total births, and dividing the result by 1000. The net reproduction rate was first found out by Kuezynsky.

N.R.R=∑(푁푢푚푏푒푟 표푓 푓푒푚푎푙푒 푏푖푟푡ℎ푠 푋 푠푢푟푣푖푣푎푙 푟푎푡푒)

1000

If the N.R.R. is 1 , the populatipn is stationary i.e., the new mothers are just replacing the old mothers. If N.R.R, is greater than 1, population is increasing; and if it is less than 1, population is decreasing.

Mortality

Increase in population depends both on birth rate and death rate. Therefore, in demography, the measurement of death rate is as important as the measurement of birth rate.

While the birth rate increases population, the death rate decreases it. The basic index of mortality is the crude death rate. Crude death rate measures the number of deaths per 1000 of the population. In order to measure the crude death rate we require the total number of deaths and the total number of

the population. It is calculated by dividing the total number of deaths by the total number of population, and then multiplying by 1000.

However, the crude death rate is inadequate for many purposes as a measure of mortality differences between different groups in different regions. Variations in groups occur due to variation in age and sex. Some populations change considerably in age and sex from time to time. Therefore, change in the crude death rate is of little use as an index of basic changes in mortality.

The death rate can be made age-specific. Age-specific death rate means the number of deaths of persons of a given age per thousand population of that age, generally by sex. This can be calculated precisely if we know the size of different age groups by sex, and if deaths for the same group are correctly known. This rate is the basis of refinement in mortality rates which are used today. This rate gives an accurate picture of mortality for both males and females of each group. For calculating the age-specific death rate, we should divide the population into different age-groups, e.g., 0-5, 5-10, 10- 15, 15-20 and so on. Then, we should calculate the number of deaths occurring in each group. It is necessary to know the age of the people who have died.

A.S .D .R= Death occurring in a particular group x 1000 Total population of that group However, we require a single figure which takes into account age and sex differences, if we are to compare the mortality rates of two populations. Such a rate is commonly called Standardized or adjusted death rate.

Another index of mortality used by population geographers and demographers is infant mortality. The infant mortality rate shows the number of deaths of children, generally under one year of age per thousand live births occurring in the same year. Infant mortality rates serve as one of the best indices to the general “healthiness” of a society and the level of living of any population. The lower the infant mortality rate, the better is the level of living. The infant mortality rate can also be age- specific. For calculating infant mortality, we take into account babies in the age-group 0-9. The infant mortality rate (I.M.R.) is calculated thus;

L.M.R. = Number of children who died x 1000

Total number of children in that age group

To be meaningful, vital rates should be standardized. Standardized death rate is based on age-specific death rate. Generally, the death rate is standardized for age and sex only. When the death rates of two or more populations are standardized on the same population base, their rates can be compared and, in such a case, the differences found will not be merely due to their age and sex differences. However, death rates can also be standardized for other differences in composition, e.g., education, marital composition, and the like.

In calculating the standardized death rate of standard populations, we require the number of standard population in every age-group and the death rate per 1000 in every age group. Then the death rate per

1000 is multiplied by the amount of population in each age-group and the sum is divided by the total amount of standard population.

The risk of dying from causes associated with child-birth is measured by the maternal mortality rate. For this purpose, the deaths used in the numerator are those arising from puerperal causes i.e , deliveries and complications of pregnancy, child-birth and puerperium.

The numbers exposed to the risk of dying from puerperal causes are women who have been pregnant during the period. Their number being unknown, the number of live births is used as the conventional base for computing comparable maternal mortality rates. The formula is;

No. of deaths from puerperal causes which have occurred Among the female population of a given geographic area Annual maternal During a given year x 1000 Mortality rate = No .of live births which occurred among the population of a Given geographical area during the same year

The classification and coding of deaths as puerperal deaths vary from one country to another or even within the same country, and hence we must be cautious in comparing maternal mortality rates for different places.

Migration

Migration is shifting of the home, and not the house. In the context of migration, we come across two processes: ‘emigration’ and ‘immigration’. Emigration refers to going out of a country, while immigration refers to coming into a country. Thus, emigration reduces the population of a country, and immigration increases it. Migration implies the movement of people from one place to another. It is a highly selective process. It may be age-selective, occupation-selective or sex- selective. Generally, migration is male dominated, particularly in developing countries.

Migration is not merely a process of shifting people from one place to another; it is a fundamental process to change the structure of population and it contributes a lot for the under- standing of the space-content and space-relations of a particular geographical area. Migration involves three types of changes — change in the area of out-migration, change in the area of in-migration and change in the migrants themselves. Migration is an instrument for the defusion of culture. It also serves as an instrument for the redistribution of population from one place to another. Migration reflects the

changing pattern of opportunities in the affected places. For all these reasons, migration becomes an important topic of analysis for the population geographers.

Types of Migration

There arc two types of migration: (i) International migration, and (ii) Internal migration.

International migrationIs migration from one political boundary to another political boundary. It depends on the laws regarding migration of the two countries. Internal migration Is migration from one place to another within the same country. Internal migration may be divided into the following four types;

(a) Migration from the village to the city,

(b) Migration from one village to another village,

(c) Migration from one city to another city, and fd) Migration from the city to the village.

According to Kingsley Davis, Internal migration Is more important than international migration from the point of view of demography. In the case of internal migration, there are less restrictions on individuals, resources and capital. Therefore, internal migration is more frequent than international migration. The distance involved in internal migration may sometimes be greater than that involved in international migration. During the Sino-Japanese War (1939-45), lakhs of Chinese left the eastern sea-side and went towards the interior of the country. During the period of this great internal migration, there was large, scale social change in China. Similar important internal migration took place in America when people in large numbers migrated towards the western side of the country. International migration is based on some legal control and regulation, but in the case of internal migration, there is no such control on the movement of population.

Therefore, internal migration is practically more important. Internal migration may be divided into the following two types on the basis of the advantage of the migration:

(i) Inter-regional migration. This involves migration from one region to another.

(ii) Migration front village to city. Village people come to city areas for education, for white-collar jobs, and so on.

Push factor Pull factor

1. Unemployment and under- employment. Better economic prospects

2. Economic underdevelopment Higher salary and income

3. Low wage and salary Better level of living and way of life.

4. Political instability . Better research facilities

5. Overproduction and under-utilisation of Modern educational system and better. talented people opportunity for higher qualification

6. Lack of research and other Prestige of foreign training and education. facilities.

7. Lack of freedom. Intellectual freedom.

8. Discrimination in appointment Better working conditions and better and promotion. employment opportunities

9. Discrimination based on religion and No discrimination. politics.

10. Poor working facilities. Relative political stability.

1 1 . Lack of scientific tradition and culture. Presence of a rich,scientific and cultural tradition

12. Unsuitable institution. Attraction of urban centres

13. Desire for a better urban Availability of experienced supporting staff. life.

14. Desire for higher qualification and Frequent chances of a lucky break in life. recognition.

15. Better career expectation Technological gap.

16. Lack of satisfactory working conditions. Allocation of substantial funds for research.

17. High man-land ratio. Low-density of population and better housing and medical facilities.

18. Existence of surplus labour. Increasing demand for labour and skill.

UNIT-4 Site and Situation

The study of settlement patterns is one of the most important aspects of urban geography. Settlements can range in size from a small village with a few hundred residents to a metropolitan city of over one million people. Geographers often study the reasons behind why such cities develop where they do and what factors lead to their becoming a large city over time or remaining as a small village.

Some of the reasons behind these patterns are thought of in terms of the area's site and its situation - two of the most important concepts in the study of urban geography.

Site

The site is the actual location of a settlement on the earth and is composed of the physical characteristics of the landscape specific to the area. Site factors include things like landforms (i.e. is the area protected by mountains or is there a natural harbor present?), climate, vegetation types, availability of water, soil quality, minerals, and even wildlife.

Historically, these factors led to the development of major cities worldwide. New York City, for example, is located where it is because of several site factors. As people arrived in North America from Europe, they began to settle in this area because it was a coastal location with a natural harbor. There was also an abundance of fresh water in the nearby Hudson River and small creeks as well as raw materials for building supplies. In addition, the nearby Appalachian and Catskill Mountains provided a barrier to movement inland.

The site of an area can also create challenges for its population and the small Himalayan nation of Bhutan is a good example of this. Located within the world's highest mountain range, the terrain of the country is extremely rugged and hard to get around. This, combined with the incredibly harsh climate in many areas of the country has made much of the population settle along rivers in the highlands just south of the Himalayas. In addition, only 2% of the land in the nation is arable (with much of it located in the highlands) making living in the country highly challenging.

Situation

Situation is defined as the location of a place relative to its surroundings and other places. Factors included in an area's situation include the accessibility of the location, the extent of a place's connections with another, and how close an area may be to raw materials if they are not located specifically on the site.

Though its site has made living in the nation challenging, Bhutan's situation has allowed it to maintain its policies of isolation as well as its own highly separated and traditionally religious culture.

Because of its remote location in the Himalayas getting into the country is challenging and historically this has been beneficial because the mountains have been a form of protection. As such, the heartland of the nation has never been invaded. In addition, Bhutan now controls many of the most strategic mountain passes in the Himalayas including the only ones into and out of its territory, leading to its title as the "Mountain Fortress of the Gods."

Like an area's site however, its situation can also cause problems. For example Canada's Eastern Provinces of New Brunswick, Newfoundland and Labrador, Nova Scotia, and Prince Edward Island are some of that country's most economically downtroddenareas due in large part to their situations. These areas are isolated from the rest of Canada making manufacturing and the little agriculture possible too expensive. In addition, there are very few close natural resources (many are off the coast and due to maritime laws the government of Canada itself controls the resources) and many of the traditional fishing economies they did have are now crashing along with the fish populations.

Site and Situation The location and growth of a settlement depended upon its siteand situation. The sitewas the actual place where people decided to locate their settlement. The growth of that settlement then depended upon itssituationin relation to accessibilityand availability of naturalresources.

Site Factors • Reliable WaterSupply

• Away From FloodRisks

• Defense

• Building Materials (Stone OrWood)

• FertileLand

• Sheltered FromWinds

• Fuel Supply(Wood)

• South-Facing Slope(Aspect)

• Flat Land, Easy To BuildOn

• Natural Harbor Situation Factors • Route centre

• Gap town

• Lowest bridging point on ariver

• Port

• Minerals forexport

Settlement Patterns

Nucleated or clustered settlements often form at crossroads or route centres.

Dispersed settlements have no obvious centre and are often hamlets spread over fertile farmland.

Linear settlements: settlements grow along a road (e.g. in a narrow valley) or along the coast. Ribbon development is when housing grows out from a town along a main road.

What is a settlement? A settlement is a place where people live. A settlement could be anything from an isolated farmhouse to a mega city (settlement with over 10 million people).Settlements can either be temporary or permanent. Temporary settlements include things such as refugeecamps. Some temporary settlements have become permanent over time such as the Rochina, the largest favela in Rio de Janeiro,Brazil.The reason why a settlement developed in the first place is said to be its function. For example the function of Liverpool was as a port.

What do we mean by site and situation of a settlement? The site and situation of a settlement are very different things. The site of a settlement is the land upon which it was built. There are a range of factors that can determine the site of a settlement. These are:  Wet point site - these are sites close to a supply ofwater  Dry point site - these are sites that avoided the risk offlooding  Defensive site - these were sites that were on high ground and allowed the inhabitants to see enemies from adistance  Aspect - many settlements in the northern hemisphere are located on south facing sides of valleys where it issunny  Shelter - away from rain and prevailingwinds  Trading point - often settlements developed where natural training points meet such asalong rivers or natural routeways  Resources - many settlements developed close to where natural resources could befound. The situation of a settlement is its location in relation to surrounding human and physical features. We usually describe the situation when we are telling someone where a settlement is.

What are the functions of a settlement? Most settlements in MEDCs have multi-functions. This includes education, retail and industry. However, when settlements first formed they often had one main function. These functions included:  Port  Markettown  Resort

What is a settlement hierarchy? We can categories settlements according to their size and shape. The result is a settlement hierarchy.

As you move up the settlement hierarchy the size of the settlement increases, as does the population and the range of services available. Smaller settlements tend to provide only low order services such as a post office and newsagents. Whereas, larger settlements have more high order services such as leisure centers and chain stores. As the result of this the larger the settlement, the greater the range of services and therefore the market area or sphere of influence. This is the market area that a settlement services (the distance people will travel to useservices). High order services usually have a high threshold. This means they need a higher number of people to use the service in order to remain profitable. This means high order service such as department stores need a greater number of customers than a low order service such as a newsagent. This is why there are so few department stores in villages! Rural settlement We must ask ourselves what factors cause farms to be isolated and spread apart - or why they are nucleated and close to one another. There are three major aspects that result in different farming patterns:

 Physical  Social and cultural  Economic Factors resulting in a nucleated or dispersed settlement Nucleated Dispersed Physical

Relief Gentle slopes and plains Scarce Mountainous and hilly Abundant Water settlements, i.e. wet point water therefore people can settle settlementoasis anywhere Infertile soil and poor Soil Fertile soil therefore farmers cluster pastures, i.e. stock farmers

Social and cultural

a) Safety Peaceful times - farmers disperse Fortified villages in times of war Capitalism - free market system Sub- Communism and socialism, i.e. Political division of inherited land, breakdown commune in China of tradition Sense of belonging and a desire to c) Tradition maintain villages and united family andreligion Economic

a) Land Private ownership, loose pieces of Communal, collective utilisation; ownership land. hired workers Collective farming, i.e. Agricultural Extensive stock farming Individual entire community is concentrated in a farmer on his ownland centrally located village

Rural settlement

Dispersed rural settlements Advantages - economic

 Farmer lives on his or her ownfarm  Farmer decides how to manage the farm and makes his or her owndecisions  Lives on a single holding and makes maximum use of machinery  Greater profit Disadvantages - social

 Living in isolation, therefore there is little socialcontact  Safety of farmer threatened because ofisolation  Farmer has to travel great distances for basiccommodities  Living in isolation may lead to boredom, however tv, radio, alarms have minimised the fact that farms do not have access to security andcommunication Urban morphology Urban morphology comprises the structure of a city and pattern or plan of its development. It is actually the layout of a city both in its historical as well as geographical contexts which gives it individuality. Therefore, the internal pattern or structure of each city is “unique in its particular combination of details”.

Combinations involving structure of most American cities have business, industrial and residential districts. The cities of the Western world in their structure display generally city centre or downtown, Central Business District (CBD) including shopping centre, industrial estate, and housing estate giving it a spatial framework in order to make sense of the environment in which people live and work

Rural-Urban fringe

Rural-Urban fringe is an important concept in settlement geography. The rural-urban fringe is the boundary zone outside the urban area proper where rural and urban land uses intermix. It is the area where the city meets the

countryside. It is an area of transition from agricultural and other rural land uses to urban use. Located well within the urban sphere of influence the fringe is characterized by a wide variety of land use including dormitory settlements housing middle-income commuters who work in the central urban area. Over time the characteristics of the fringe change from largely rural to largely urban. Suburbanization takes place at the municipal boundary of rural-urban fringe.

Source: https://www.examrace.com/Study- Material/Geography/Human-Geography/Rural-Urban- Fringe-Youtube-Lecture-Handouts.html

Primate city

A primate city is an extensive urban environment that is disproportionately the larger city in the country or the region. Primate cities brag of dominance over other cities, they are unrivaled political and economic hubs, and in most cases, they are the capital and the administrative centers of the country. Geographer Mark Jefferson developed the ideology of the primate city in 1939. Jefferson defined a primate Source: http://egyankosh.ac.in/bitstream/123456789/27617/1/Un city as the city that is twice as large as the next city and it-6.pdf twice as significant. Primate cities are the face of the country, they tend to host international events and develop better infrastructure that other cities or town.

Source:https://www.worldatlas.com/articles/what-is-a- primate-city.html

UNIT 5

CENTRAL PLACE THEORY

Central place theory is a geographical theory that seeks to explain the number, size and location of human settlements in a residential system. The theory was created by the German geographer Walter Christaller, who asserted that settlements simply functioned as 'central places' providing services to surrounding areas.

To develop the theory, Christaller made the following simplifying ASSUMPTIONS:

 An unbounded isotropic (all flat), homogeneous, limitless surface (abstract space)  An evenly distributed population  All settlements are equidistant and exist in a triangular lattice pattern  Evenly distributed resources  Distance decay mechanism  Perfect competition and all sellers are economic people maximizing their profits  Consumers are of the same income level and same shopping behaviour  All consumers have a similar purchasing power and demand for goods and services.  Consumers visit the nearest central places that provide the function which they demand. They minimize the distance to be travelled  No provider of goods or services is able to earn excess profit (each supplier has a monopoly over a hinterland)  Therefore, the trade areas of these central places who provide a particular good or service must all be of equal size  There is only one type of transport and this would be equally easy in all directions  Transport cost is directly proportional to distance travelled

The theory then relied on two concepts: threshold and range.

THRESHOLD

Threshold is the minimum market (population or income) needed to bring about the selling of a particular good or service.

RANGE

Range is the maximum distance consumers are prepared to travel to acquire goods - at some point the cost or inconvenience will outweigh the need for the good.

The result of these consumer preferences is that a system of centers of various sizes will emerge. Each center will supply particular types of goods forming levels of hierarchy. In the functional hierarchies, generalizations can be made regarding the spacing, size and function of settlements.

 The larger the settlements are in size, the fewer in number they will be, i.e. there are many small villages, but few large cities.  The larger the settlements grow in size, the greater the distance between them, i.e. villages are usually found close together, while cities are spaced much further apart.  As a settlement increases in size, the range and number of its functions will increase.  As a settlement increases in size, the number of higher-order services will also increase, i.e. a greater degree of specialization occurs in the services.  The higher the order of the goods and services (more durable, valuable and variable), the larger the range of the goods and services, the longer the distance people are willing to travel to acquire them. At the base of the hierarchy pyramid are shopping centres, newsagents etc. which sell low order goods. These centres are small. At the top of the pyramid are centres selling high order goods. These centres are large. Examples for low order goods and services are: newspaper stalls, groceries, bakeries and post offices. Examples for high order goods and services include jewelry, large shopping malls and arcades. They are supported by a much larger threshold population and demand.

KEY PRICIPLES

He deduced that settlements would tend to form in a triangular/hexagonal lattice, as it is the most efficient pattern to serve areas without any overlap.[1] In the orderly arrangement of an urban hierarchy, seven different principal orders of settlement have been identified by Christaller, providing different groups of goods and services. Settlement are regularly spaced - equidistant spacing between same order centers, with larger centers farther apart than smaller centers. Settlements have hexagonal market areas, and are most efficient in number and functions. The different layouts predicted by Christaller have K-values which show how much the Sphere of Influence of the central places takes in — the central place itself counts as 1 and each portion of a satellite counts as its portion:

K = 3 MARKETING PRINCIPLE

K = 3 Principle According to the marketing principle K = 3, the market area of a higher-order place(node) occupies 1/3rd of the market area of each of the consecutive lower size place(node) which lies on its neighbor; the lower size nodes (6 in numbers and 2nd larger circles) are located at the corner of a largest hexagon around low value the high-order settlement. Each high-order settlement gets 1/3rd of each satellite settlement (which are 6 in total), thus K = 1 + 6×1/3 = 3. However, in this K = 3 marketing network the distance traveled is minimized.

K = 4 TRANSPORT/TRAFFIC PRINCIPLE

K = 4 Principle According to K = 4 transport principle, the market area of a higher-order place includes a half of the market area of each of the six neighbouring lower-order places, as they are located on the edges of hexagons around the high-order settlements. This generates a hierarchy of central places which results in the most efficient transport network. There are maximum central places possible located on the main transport routes connecting the higher order center.The transportation principle involves the minimization of the length of roads connecting central places at all hierarchy levels. In this system of nesting, the lower order centres are all located along the roads linking the higher order centres. This alignment of places along a road leads to minimization of road length. However, for each higher order centre, there are now four centres of immediate lower order,as opposed to three centres under the marketing principle.

K = 7 ADMINISTRATIVE PRINCIPLE

K = 7 Principle According to K = 7 administrative principle (or political-social principle), settlements are nested according to sevens. The market areas of the smaller settlements are completely enclosed within the market area of the larger settlement. Since tributary areas cannot be split administratively, they must be allocated exclusively to a single higher-order place. Efficient administration is the control principle in this hierarchy. CRITICISM

The Central Place Theory has been criticized for being static; it does not incorporate the temporal aspect in the development of central places. Furthermore, the theory holds up well when it comes to agricultural areas, but not industrial or postindustrial areas due to their diversified nature of various services or their varied distribution of natural resources.

THE RANK-SIZE RULE

The rank-size rule says that ‘when ranks of cities, arranged in descending order, are plotted against their populations (rank 1 being given to the largest, and so on) in a doubly logarithmic graph, a rank- size distribution results’ (Das and Dutt 1993: 125), or to put it in much simpler words: ‘In an ordered set of cities representing a given country, the product of the rank and size of a city is constant’ (Dziewonski 1972: 73). The rank-size rule is also commonly referred to as Zipf’s Law because the model describing a constant relation between the size of an event and its rank was at first developed by G. Zipf. In the case of cities distribution by population, when the natural logarithms of the rank and of the city size (in terms of the number of people) are calculated and represented graphically, a remarkable log-linear pattern is attained, which is called the rank-size distribution. If the slope of the line is equal or close to -1 (a straight line), the relationship is known as Zipf’s Law.

Zipf’s has probably the best presentation of the empirical findings on rank and size of the cities. The rank size rule states that for a group of cities, usually those exceeding some size in a particular country, the relationship between size and rank of cities is given by:

Pr = P1/r

Where Pr = population of the largest city ranked r

P = population of the largest city

r = rank of city r

Rank Size Rule is a simple model which states that population size of a given city tends to be equal to the population of the largest city divided by the rank of the given city.

Pattern as per rank-size rule

Settlements in a country may be ranked in order of their size. The ‘rule’ states that, if the population of a town is multiplied by its rank, the sum will equal the population of the highest ranked city. In other words, the population of a town ranked n will be 1/nth of the size of the largest city—the fifth town, by rank, will have a population one-fifth of the first.

It is usually possible to relate the ranks and sizes of the central places in country by using a regression analysis

logPk = log P1 – b log k

where P1 is the population of the largest city or town, Pk is the population of the kth town by rank, and b is a coefficient which must be established empirically for each investigation. The greater the value of b, the steeper the slope, and the greater the primacy of the largest city or town. Many developing countries show a sharp fall from the largest, primate city to the other cities, and this is known as the primate rule.

The theoretical rank size rule pattern is a straight line.

In urban primacy, a single city dominates and is much greater than the next large center (primary pattern).

In Binary pattern two or more cities are larger than the predicted size.

In Stepped order pattern there are series of levels and steps (conurbations, cities, towns etc.).

LOSCH THEORY

August Losch, a German economist, published his theory of ‘Profit Maximisation’ in the year 1954. The least cost location theory of Weber was wholly discarded by Losch. In fact, he suggested that, ‘profit maximization’ is the only objective of the entrepreneur, whether it is state or an individual. The major objective of the industry is, therefore, to find out the place where maximum profits occur.

Unlike Weber, who postulated his entire theory in an economic state of perfect competi-tion, Losch, on the other hand, explained his theory within the environment of monopolistic competition. According to Losch, industry will not necessarily be located within the least cost (transport cost and labour cost) location; rather it would locate in areas where maximum profit will occur. So, ignoring transport cost, labour cost and agglomeration cost, he emphasized more on the total production cost.

To get the maximum profit, as stated by Losch, total consumption is important. Higher the consumption rate, greater will be the profit. In this case, he emphasized most on the price reduction of the commodity. Any decrease of price would automatically stimulate the volume of consumption. This can be illustrated by the following diagram.

In this simple model, it is evident that when price of the commodity drops from R to P, the consumption increases from M to N. The theory of August Losch considered demand as a most important variable. The funda-mental objective behind the theory was to find out the most profitable location for industrial establishment.

To determine the location of maximum profit, Losch said, “The complexity stems from the fact that, there is more than one geographical point where the total demand of a surrounding district is at a maximum, We are thus reduced to determine separately for every one of a number of virtual factory location the total attainable demand, and for similar reasons the best volume of production as a function of factory price (Market and Cost analysis). The greatest profit attainable at each of these points can be determined from the cost and demand curves, and from this place of greatest money profits, the optimum location can be found”.

Losch argued that most of the existing theories are all simplified and generalizations of the complex problem of industrial location. Like Weber, he also considered certain assump-tions for the success of his theory.

Assumptions of the Profit Maximisation Theory:

Like Weber’s theory, ‘profit maximization’ theory of Losch is not universally applicable.

In the presence of certain optimum conditions the maximum profit location may occur:

1. The area under consideration should be an extensive homogenous plane where raw materials are distributed evenly.

2. The ‘transport cost’ is uniform and directly proportional in all the directions.

3. The people inhabiting the region have a general homogeneity either in taste, knowl-edge and technical skill.

4. There is no economic discriminations among the people. The economic and ca-reer building opportunities are open and uniform to all individuals.

5. The population distribution is very even and the area is self-sufficient in agricul-tural production.

In the case of excess production of agriculture, the status quo of economy will be distorted. To achieve homogeneity of economy within the region, the theory required some more condi-tions.

These are as follows:

1. The entire area should be equally served by the factories. No area should be ex-empted from the supply; therefore, no new firm would dare to venture in the area.

2. There must be conformity in the range and quantum of profit. In case of abnormal profit, new firms may try to establish their own plant.

3. The location must satisfy both producer and consumer. The profit of the firm and satisfaction of the consumer must be optimum through the location.

4. There must be provisions for consumers to get the products from other adjacent areas.

5. The number of consumers, producers and areas should be well defined and not very extensive. Only a limited number of producers within a small area will be able to overcome the complexities and satisfy completely the handful of consum-ers.

According to Losch, to get the desired result from the location and sustained growth of the industry, these conditions are pre-requisites.

Explanation to the Profit Maximisation Theory:

The major objective of the location theory is to attain equilibrium in the producing area and the product and the ability of the producer. If a single entrepreneur enters in the produc-tion process, within a vast area, the distribution cost will be very high.

But when several small producers are engaged in the production process in separate regions, the distribution cost will come down and due to increasing competition, efficiency of the product and cost of produc-tion will be lower.

The profit will increase substantially. Due to increasing competition, the area served by individual manufacturing units will be reduced. In the reduced area, several producing units will remain adjacent with each other, without leaving any area un-served. So, in this particular situation, a hexagonal area would serve the purpose. To establish his theoretical model of the theory, August Losch proposed three distinct phase of development.

The phases are as follows:

I. In this first phase Losch observed that if sufficient and symmetrical demand of a prod-uct prevails in the market, the market conditions may be explained by a demand cone. The following diagram illustrates that the effective demand of the particular product will be exactly same to the volume of the cone.

In Fig. 5, P is a producer, and demand curve is lying on QF. P or price line, controlled jointly by transport cost and distance. The price increased from P to F. Along the Y axis or PQ, demand of quantity is measured between PF and QF.

When PF is taken as a measure of distance and is rotated about P, the circular market area is formed, bounded by the locus of points F, where the price becomes too high. Total sales are given by the volume of the cone produced by the rotation of PQF.

In Fig. 5, it is clear that, away from centre, with increasing distance, demand of the quan-tity drops drastically.

II.In the second phase, within the vast rounded area, several factories will concentrate. The virgin, extensive market area will automatically give a lucrative operational area.. But despite the growing competition among the firms to capture larger share of consumer and larger market areas, there should be some void in the boundary zones.

Like intra-molecular space, a certain amount of region will remain un-served or poorly served. Though the mal--distribution of firms may result in shrinkage of areas in some instances, some other regions will be devoid of any industry. The circular pattern of industrial hinterland in phase two will ultimately decide the future of the industry in that region.

In Fig. 6, the space situated outside the circular areas are still lying vacant. It is quite natural for the other industries to capture this potential market areas, hitherto unexploited. The influx of new industries in the region will result in shrinkage of the market areas (denoted in Fig. 6 by circle) of different production centres.

The intrusion of one market area to other will distort the circular market areas and the market areas of different production units will further reduce. This situation will lead to the initiation of the third phase.

Second Stage of Profit Maximization Theory

III. In the third phase of industrial location witness the narrowing of the intermediate space between two market areas. The areas fall vacant between the different market areas become the target of new enterprises.

As new firms set up within the vacuum, the hinterlands of earlier industries become reduced. The reduction of the market area results in rapid disrup-tion of the early circular pattern. Gradually the market area of the industries attain a hexago-nal shape.

According to Losch, when any area possesses several hexagons, lying upon each other and surrounding a particular centre, a metropolitan city will grow. In other words, it may be said that around the nucleus of a city, numerous hexagons or market areas of different com-modity will grow.

So, in this fashion, industries would concentrate within a region, each having different products. So, almost all types of materials including raw materials should be available on that point. Hence, any new industry would get its required raw material within near distance. Obviously, the total transport cost in that place will be minimum. In this way, ‘equilibrium conditions’ as stated by Losch may be attained (Fig. 6).

Losch, however, himself hinted about the deviation of his theory in some special condi-tions. According to his conception, when price of the commodity of a particular firm increases,demand of the product decreases considerably.

Naturally, due to higher price, the company loses some of its market area. Automatically, that area is encroached by the adjacent firm. In this fashion, market area of a unit changes continuously. This incident was explained by the figure given by Losch in Fig. 7.

Fig. 6 shows the development of hexagonal market area in the third stage. The dotted lines represent market boundaries of respective production centres. The crossed area is the production centre.

In Fig. 7, as stated by Losch, A and B are two producing centres, with total production cost of P and Q. Their respective market boundaries are CPD1 and EQD1. At the product cost of M, their production touches the optimum level and equilibrium is attained. But when production cost at A

increase from P1 to P2, the equilibrium condition is dis-rupted. The product of A becomes less attractive than before, so market boundaries also re-duces from CP1D to C1P2D2.

Following the reduction of market of A, automatically market area of B advances in that void region. The previous area of EQD1 increases to EQD2. This D1D2 areal increase is well reflected in the circular diagram of Losch. The BD1 radius increases to BD2 and former AC radius reduces to AC1.

Merits of the Profit Maximisation Theory:

1. August Losch tried to restore a order in the former chaotic classifications of industrial location. 2. He was the first person to consider the influence of the magnitude of demand on indus-trial location. 3. August Losch rightly emphasizes upon the role of competition as an important determinant of location analysis. 4. The calculations adopted by Losch were simple and easily applicable to any place. 5. The theory has also a philosophical contribution on the motive of entrepreneurs’ role. 6. His equilibrium concept is perhaps the greatest contribution among the location theories developed later on. 7. The least cost concept of Weber was nullified by Losch and instead more precise ‘profit maximization’ concept was adopted.

Demerits of the Profit Maximisation Theory:

Of course, the theory of Losch was not entirely flawless. Numerous criticism from differ-ent quarters were put forward against the theory on various grounds.

The major points against the theory are as follows: 1. This theory is essentially a simplified model or theorizing of an ideal condition. In reality, only in a rare occasion, these events may occur. 2. The assumed conditions of homogeneous plain region, equal distribution of raw mate-rials and uniform transport rates never occur in the real world. Therefore, Losch’s theory, as said by some critics, is nothing but only intellectual exercise. 3. Losch even assumed the cultural homogeneity and uniform taste of the people within the region. This is nothing but absurdity. 4. He ignored the variation of technological development of different regions. The differ-ence of technical know-how may offset the theoretical model. 5. Political decisions play an important role in the industrial location. Losch ignored it. 6. The variation of the cost of raw materials and labour wage rates were not given proper weightage in the theory. 7. Losch categorically separated the role and effect of agriculture and industry. But this difference is somehow arbitrary in nature.

8. The abstract and optimum situation demanded by the theory may be available in agri-culture but not in the complex production process of modern manufacturing industries. Thus, Losch theory is more practical in agriculture, rather than in industry.

REFERENCES  Openshaw S, Veneris Y, 2003, "Numerical experiments with central place theory and spatial interaction modelling" Environment and Planning A 35(8) 1389–1403 ([1])  Smith, Margot W. Physician's Specialties and Medical Trade Areas: An Application of Central Place Theory. Papers and Proceedings of Applied Geography Conferences, Vol. 9, West Point NY 1986.  Smith, Margot W. A Guide to the Delineation of Medical Care Regions, Medical Trade Areas and Hospital Service Areas. Public Health Reports, 94:3:247 May 1979  Smith, Margot W. The Economics of Physician Location, Western Regional Conference, American Association of Geographers, Chicago, Illinois, 1979  Smith, Margot W. The Distribution of Medical Care in Central California: a Social and Economic Analysis, Thesis, School of Public Health, University of California, Berkeley, 1977 - 1004 pages  Veneris, Y, 1984, Informational Revolution, Cybernetics and Urban Modelling, PhD Thesis, University of Newcastle upon Tyne, UK.