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Extreme Wave and Water Level Conditions in the Baltic Sea in January 2005 and Their Reflection in Teaching of Coastal Engineering

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Extreme Wave and Water Level Conditions in the Baltic Sea in January 2005 and Their Reflection in Teaching of Coastal Engineering Extreme wave and water level conditions in the Baltic Sea in January 2005 and their reflection in teaching of coastal engineering Tarmo Soomere, Department of mechanics and Institute of Cybernetics at Tallinn University of Technology (email: [email protected]) Terry Healy, University of Waikato (email: [email protected]) Abstract Windstorm Gudrun (January 7–9th 2005, also known as Erwin in some countries) was one of the strongest storms in the Nordic Region of Europe during the last decades. It caused widespread property damage, exceptionally high storm surge levels, and the loss of 18 lives. The storm surge in the Estonian city of Pärnu at the eastern coast of the Baltic Sea reached 275 cm above mean sea level, which is the highest flood ever recorded since regular measurements started in 1824. Extremely rough seas occurred in the north-eastern region of the Baltic Sea. The overall maximum significant wave height was estimated to be about 9.5 m off the coasts of Saaremaa and Latvia. Such wave conditions are extremely rare in this water body. Despite several atypical features of this storm, the reaction of water masses was reasonably forecast 48–54 hours ahead and accurately reproduced in 24–36 hour forecasts in the leading operational oceanographic centres. The lessons learned from this event led to re-launching of routine operational oceanographic services in Estonia and were used in regular courses for students specialising in port and coastal engineering in Tallinn University of Technology, and for students in hydrography at the Estonian Marine Academy a few weeks after the events. Keywords: Coastal hazards, extreme wave conditions, storm surge, coastal engineering teaching 1. Introduction Windstorm Gudrun, an extratropical cyclone, also known as Erwin in Ireland, the United Kingdom and Central Europe, attacked northern Europe on 7–9 January 2005 [1]. It reached the power of a hurricane in the North Sea region. Although in the Baltic Sea it remained slightly below the hurricane level, it was one of the strongest storms in Denmark, Scandinavia and Estonia for at least 40 years. It caused widespread property damage and exceptionally high storm surge flooding levels. According to the official statistics, 18 lives were lost. The storm caused extremely widespread forest damage in Sweden, perhaps the worst recorded in recent history. It caused power supply cuts in large areas of Sweden, Norway and the Baltic states, and excited the highest storm surge in the known history (275 cm above the mean sea level (MSL)) 1397 in Pärnu [2]. New records of water level were established in many locations along the Western Estonian coast as well in the Gulf of Finland. The storm flushed totally smaller shallow areas such as the Moonsund (Väinameri, an area between Saaremaa, Hiiumaa and the Estonian mainland) with the water from the Baltic Proper. Particularly intense transport of bottom sediments occurred in certain coastal areas [2]. Many smaller harbours suffered from massive damage, and substantial beach destruction occurred on exposed coasts [3]. The meteorological conditions, details of accompanying flooding, and the reaction of water masses to this storm in Estonian coastal waters are analysed in detail in [1] and [2]. A major feature of this storm were the very rough wave conditions. The main reason for the extensive property damage in affected coastal areas was evidently the combination of rough seas and extremely high storm surges. While sea level in the affected areas was correctly filed at about 20 sites, the network of wave measurements at the downwind side of the northern Baltic Sea (Fig. 1) consisted only of two directional waveriders operated by the Finnish Institute of Marine Research, and one temporary pressure-based recorder. Figure 1: Wave measurement sites, marked by ⊗, in the Northern Baltic proper (buoy 1), near Helsinki and at the island of Naissaar. Thus it is intuitively clear that the measured wave data only partially reflected the wave fields during this storm. The position of the waverider is such that it adequately reflects wave conditions occurring in the case of SW winds that have the longest fetch among strong winds in this basin. The strongest winds (W-WSW) in Gudrun, however, were oblique to the Baltic proper. The area of strongest winds crossed the basin between Gotland and Saaremaa where the fetch is relatively short. The wave sensors were located much further northwards from the maximum of the wave storm. Even with these non-ideal conditions for wave generation and detection of the roughest seas, very high and long waves were recorded. 1398 The purpose of this paper is twofold. Firstly, we bring evidence about the extension of the highest storm surges and construct an estimate of the roughest wave conditions during this storm based upon available data. The analysis involves a comparison of wave measurements with the output of operational wave models from the leading operational centres in the Baltic Sea area, viz. the German Weather Forecast Service (DWD, Deutscher Wetterdienst), the Danish Meteorological Institute (DMI), and the Finnish Institute of Marine Research (FIMR). A second focus of the paper illustrates how the instructive features of this storm were used in courses in the Department of Hydrography of the Estonian Maritime Academy and in the Faculty of Civil Engineering at the Tallinn University of Technology. To give an impression of extreme wave conditions and related features of the local wave climate in the Baltic Sea (which is a relatively small water body in which hurricane-strength winds occur extremely seldom), we also present an overview of the existing wave data and numerical wave studies in this area. 2. Extremes of storm surge water level The basic driving factors of synoptic Baltic Sea sea level are the wind and air pressure patterns [4]. Sea level variation due to the tidal forces does not exceed a few cm. Long-term statistics reveal that the annual maximum values of water level have significantly increased on the Finnish coasts during the last 70 years [5]. The trend is essentially asymmetric: the annual minimum values do not show any significant changes. The increase is the most pronounced in the Baltic Sea nodal area where the maxima have increased by about 10 cm in a half century. This feature indicates that the overall variability of the water level in the Baltic Sea has increased even more than its local variations and, generally, large-scale meteorological and hydrological phenomena rather than local storms have caused these changes. Yet local storms cause the largest sea level variations and at times extremely hazardous storm surges. A common feature along the Finnish coast is that the higher sea levels are more probable than the low levels. The enclosed eastern end of the Gulf of Finland generally hosts the largest variation of sea water level in the whole Baltic Sea. The total range of historical extremes exceeds 5 m and the highest storm surge reached 4.21 m above mean water level in Saint Petersburg. During the January 2005 storm, the sea level reached a relatively modest value of 230 cm above MSL in St Petersburg. While typically the Baltic Sea storms establish new water level maxima in quite limited sections of the coast, usually at the bayhead measurement sites, the January storm of 2005 set new sea level maxima at many observation sites of the eastern Baltic coasts (Table 1). New sea level records were established and in all four stations in Finland, and at Tallinn and Toila, while at other sites of the southern coast the water level was close to the historical maxima [2]. The reason is an unfavourable combination of a sequence of events. As a result of strong cyclonic activity preceding the storm, the Baltic Sea level was already very high (+70 cm above MSL) [2]. The storm itself had a very wide area of strong winds (a few hundreds of km) comparable with the extension of the whole Baltic proper. Table 1: Water level during windstorm Gudrun (8-9 Jan 2005) and historical sea level maxima along the coast of the Gulf of Finland based on [2], [5] and data from the FIMR, www.fimr.fi. The sites where new records were established in 2005 are indicated in bold. 1399 Location Maximum storm Highest recorded level prior to Observations date surge level (cm) 2005 from: on 09.01.2005 Maximum, cm Date Dirhami 134 148 18.10.1967 1954 Tallinn 152 135 15.11.2001 1842 Kunda 139 157 06.01.1975 1958 Toila 160 155 11.01.1991 1991 Narva-Jõesuu 194 202 23.09.1924 1907 Turku 130 127 09.01.1975 1921 Hanko 132 123 09.01.1975 1887 Helsinki 151 136 27.01.1990 1904 Hamina 197 166 07.12.1986 1928 3. Basic features of the wave climate of the Baltic Sea The wave climate of the Baltic Sea is relatively mild. A reliable picture of the typical and extreme wave conditions may be derived from the longest instrumental wave measurements in the northern Baltic proper that were carried out between 1978–2003 by the Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute near a caisson lighthouse of Almagrundet (Fig. 1). The procedure of establishing wave properties at this site is based on the classical zero- downcrossing method. An estimate H 3/1 of the significant wave height H S is calculated from the 10th highest wave once an hour [6]. The overall average of the significant mean wave height at Almagrundet between 1978 and 1995 is 0.87 m. The median wave height is 0.7 m and the most frequent wave conditions correspond to the wave height ranging from 0.25–0.38 m [6].
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