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Flood Vulnerability in Gothenburg

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Flood Vulnerability in Gothenburg UNIVERSITY OF GOTHENBURG Department of Economy and Society, Human Geography & Department of Earth Sciences Geovetarcentrum/Earth Science Centre Gothenburg & Mölndal`s present and future vulnerability against weather-related flood events Susanna Gelin ISSN 1400-3821 B801 Master of Science (120 credits) thesis Göteborg 2015 Mailing address Address Telephone Telefax Geovetarcentrum Geovetarcentrum Geovetarcentrum 031-786 19 56 031-786 19 86 Göteborg University S 405 30 Göteborg Guldhedsgatan 5A S-405 30 Göteborg SWEDEN Front photo (Figure 1): The water level in the moat have increased significantly, due to high sea level in river Göta älv at the passage of the extra-tropical cyclone Sven that struck Gothenburg in December 2013. The picture is taken from the Lejontrappan in front of Gustav Adolfs Torg. In the background, the church Christine Kyrka can be seen. Photo: Susanna Gelin II Department of Earth Sciences Preface This Master’s thesis is Susanna Gelin’s degree project in Earth Sciences at the Department of Earth Sciences, University of Gothenburg. The Master’s thesis comprises 60 hec (two semesters of full-time studies). Supervisors have been Associate Professor Yvonne Andersson-Sköld at the Department of Earth Sciences at the University of Gothenburg and Research and Development Manager at COWI AB, Associate Professor Sofia Thorsson and Dr David Rayner also at the Department of Earth Sciences, at the University of Gothenburg. Examiner has been Professor Roland Barthel at the Department of Earth Sciences, at the University of Gothenburg. The author is responsible for the content in this thesis. Gothenburg, September 29, 2014 III Abstract Introduction: Gothenburg stands on the threshold of a new era. The city center will expand across river Göta älv and transform from old docklands to a new residential and commercial area. Gothenburg and Mölndal (the study area) are already facing problems with flood-related weather extremes such as heavy rain, flooded rivers and storm surges. Climate change is a fact, even if the emissions were to be reduced, we would still be forced to live in a warmer and wetter world. By 2100, Gothenburg’s annual precipitation may increase up to 30%, heavy rains will become more frequent and intense, while the sea level may rise 65-80 cm. Flooding in cities are growing more common. To create resilient cities, which can absorb and control the threats and opportunities of future weather and climate, local authorities are now required to take on the challenge of climate adaptation. Aim: The main purpose of this study starts with identifying weather-related flood events (between the years 1991-2012) causing consequences for Gothenburg and Mölndal municipalities, continuing with investigation of meteorological and oceanographic data related to the observed flood events. Finally, determining and analyzing the future vulnerability to weather-related flood events by applied climate change projections on present vulnerability. Method: Parts of the method Local Climate Impacts Profile (LCLIP) have been used. The purpose is to investigate the vulnerability in Gothenburg and Mölndal to weather-related flood events by searching for past weather-related articles in the local newspaper Göteborgs-Posten. Knowledge about existing vulnerability is the primary opening and preparation for an adaptation strategy. To enhance the vulnerability profile incident reports from the emergency service have been added. The two sources provide a broader knowledge of the vulnerability, and highlights the strengths and weaknesses between them. Through meteorological and oceanographic data, the cause for the consequence can be determined. Results: An additional source to a traditional LCLIP is valuable to receive a broader knowledge of the vulnerability. Gothenburg and Mölndal municipalities are vulnerable to weather-related flood events caused by heavy rains, flooded rivers and high sea levels (especially during storm surges). Today heavy rains are the largest risk causing most consequences for the two municipalities. The categories motorists/roads and flooded basements in buildings are most exposed. The latter, consequently arises from deficiencies and under-dimensioned water and sewer systems. Air pressure and wind are the two main factors affecting high sea levels within the estuary of river Göta älv. According to interviews the biggest challenge for Gothenburg are cooperation between different authorities within the work of adaptation strategy. Conclusion: Gothenburg and Mölndal is vulnerable to weather related flood-events today, especially the heavy rains. By climate change the two municipalities will become even more vulnerable in the future if not a good adaptation strategy is implemented. Keywords: climate change, extreme weather events, flooding, LCLIP, Gothenburg, Mölndal, Göteborgs-Posten, MSB, emergency service, SMHI, warning systems, vulnerability, adaptation strategy. IV Sammanfattning Introduktion: Göteborg står på tröskeln inför en ny era. Stadskärnan ska expandera över Göta älv och förvandlas från gamla hamnområden till en ny attraktiv innerstad. Göteborg och Mölndal (studieområdet) har idag problem med översvämnings-relaterade väder händelser så som kraftiga regn, översvämmande åar och stormar. Klimatförändringarna är ett faktum, och även om vi lyckades minska utsläppen kommer vi vara tvungna att leva i en varmare och blötare värld. År 2100 kan Göteborgs årliga medelnederbörd ha ökat med 30%, kraftiga regn kan komma att bli vanligare och mer intensiva, medan havsnivån kan stiga med 65-80 cm. Städer drabbas allt oftare av översvämningar. För att skapa motståndskraftiga städer, som kan absorbera och kontrollera de hot och möjligheter som följer med ett framtida väder och klimat, är nu kommunerna skyldiga att anta utmaningen om klimatanpassning. Syfte: Huvudsyftet med den här studien är att först identifiera väder-relaterade översvämningar (mellan åren 1991-2012) som orsakar konsekvenser för städerna Göteborg och Mölndal, för att sedan undersöka meteorologisk och oceanografisk klimatdata relaterade till de identifierade översvämningarna. Slutligen ska den framtida sårbarheten mot väder-relaterade översvämningar analyseras genom att applicera framtida klimatscenarier på dagens sårbarhet. Metod: Delar av en metod kallad Lokal Klimateffekts Profil (LCLIP) har används. Metoden gör det möjligt att undersöka sårbarheten i Göteborg och Mölndal för väderrelaterade översvämningar, genom att gå igenom artiklar från den lokala nyhetstidningen Göteborgs-Posten. Kunskap om den befintliga sårbarheten är den primära öppningen och förberedelsen för en klimatanpassning. För att utöka sårbarhetsprofilen har incidentrapporter från räddningstjänsten lagts till. De båda källorna skapar en vidare bild över sårbarheten, och kan samtidigt belysa varandras styrkor och brister. Genom meteorologiska och oceanografiska mätningar, kan orsaken till konsekvensen fastställas. Resultat: Genom att lägga till ytterligare en källa till den traditionella LCLIP, fås en vidare kunskap över sårbarheten. Göteborg och Mölndal är sårbara mot väder-relaterade översvämningar orsakade av kraftiga regn, översvämmade åar och höga havsnivåer (särskilt vid storm). Idag är kraftiga regn den orsaken som orsakar mest konsekvenser för de båda kommunerna. Kategorierna bilister/vägar och översvämmade källare i byggnader är sårbarast. Den senare, uppstår framför allt på grund av dåligt underhållna och under-dimensionerade vatten och avloppssystem. Lufttryck och vind är de två huvudfaktorer som påverkar höga havsnivåer inom Göta älvs flodmynning. Ett extremt år idag, kan vara ett genomsnittligt år 2100. Den största utmaningen för Göteborg och Mölndal idag är samarbetet mellan olika myndigheter inom arbetet med klimatanpassning. Slutsats: Göteborg och Mölndal är sårbara mot väder-relaterade översvämningar idag, och speciellt mot skyfall. Klimatförändringarna kommer göra de två kommunerna även mer sårbara i framtiden om inte de inte klimatanpassas. Sökord: klimatförändringar, extrema väderhändelser, översvämning, LCLIP, Göteborg, Mölndal, Göteborgs-Posten, MSB, räddningstjänsten, SMHI, varningssystem, sårbarhet, klimatanpassning. V Table of Content 1. Introduction ....................................................................................................................................... 1 1.1 Aim ................................................................................................................................................ 2 1.2 Questions at issue .......................................................................................................................... 2 1.3 Structure of approach to achieve present and future vulnerability ................................................ 3 2. Background ........................................................................................................................................ 4 2.1 Local climate change ..................................................................................................................... 4 2.1.1 Local sea level rise ................................................................................................................. 6 2.2 Extreme weather events ................................................................................................................. 7 2.3 Flooding ........................................................................................................................................ 8 2.4 Causes for a flood event to occur
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