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Two Principles of Evidence and Their Implications for the Philosophy of Scientific Method
TWO PRINCIPLES OF EVIDENCE AND THEIR IMPLICATIONS FOR THE PHILOSOPHY OF SCIENTIFIC METHOD by Gregory Stephen Gandenberger BA, Philosophy, Washington University in St. Louis, 2009 MA, Statistics, University of Pittsburgh, 2014 Submitted to the Graduate Faculty of the Kenneth P. Dietrich School of Arts and Sciences in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy University of Pittsburgh 2015 UNIVERSITY OF PITTSBURGH KENNETH P. DIETRICH SCHOOL OF ARTS AND SCIENCES This dissertation was presented by Gregory Stephen Gandenberger It was defended on April 14, 2015 and approved by Edouard Machery, Pittsburgh, Dietrich School of Arts and Sciences Satish Iyengar, Pittsburgh, Dietrich School of Arts and Sciences John Norton, Pittsburgh, Dietrich School of Arts and Sciences Teddy Seidenfeld, Carnegie Mellon University, Dietrich College of Humanities & Social Sciences James Woodward, Pittsburgh, Dietrich School of Arts and Sciences Dissertation Director: Edouard Machery, Pittsburgh, Dietrich School of Arts and Sciences ii Copyright © by Gregory Stephen Gandenberger 2015 iii TWO PRINCIPLES OF EVIDENCE AND THEIR IMPLICATIONS FOR THE PHILOSOPHY OF SCIENTIFIC METHOD Gregory Stephen Gandenberger, PhD University of Pittsburgh, 2015 The notion of evidence is of great importance, but there are substantial disagreements about how it should be understood. One major locus of disagreement is the Likelihood Principle, which says roughly that an observation supports a hypothesis to the extent that the hy- pothesis predicts it. The Likelihood Principle is supported by axiomatic arguments, but the frequentist methods that are most commonly used in science violate it. This dissertation advances debates about the Likelihood Principle, its near-corollary the Law of Likelihood, and related questions about statistical practice. -
Elect New Council Members
Volume 43 • Issue 3 IMS Bulletin April/May 2014 Elect new Council members CONTENTS The annual IMS elections are announced, with one candidate for President-Elect— 1 IMS Elections 2014 Richard Davis—and 12 candidates standing for six places on Council. The Council nominees, in alphabetical order, are: Marek Biskup, Peter Bühlmann, Florentina Bunea, Members’ News: Ying Hung; 2–3 Sourav Chatterjee, Frank Den Hollander, Holger Dette, Geoffrey Grimmett, Davy Philip Protter, Raymond Paindaveine, Kavita Ramanan, Jonathan Taylor, Aad van der Vaart and Naisyin Wang. J. Carroll, Keith Crank, You can read their statements starting on page 8, or online at http://www.imstat.org/ Bani K. Mallick, Robert T. elections/candidates.htm. Smythe and Michael Stein; Electronic voting for the 2014 IMS Elections has opened. You can vote online using Stephen Fienberg; Alexandre the personalized link in the email sent by Aurore Delaigle, IMS Executive Secretary, Tsybakov; Gang Zheng which also contains your member ID. 3 Statistics in Action: A If you would prefer a paper ballot please contact IMS Canadian Outlook Executive Director, Elyse Gustafson (for contact details see the 4 Stéphane Boucheron panel on page 2). on Big Data Elections close on May 30, 2014. If you have any questions or concerns please feel free to 5 NSF funding opportunity e [email protected] Richard Davis contact Elyse Gustafson . 6 Hand Writing: Solving the Right Problem 7 Student Puzzle Corner 8 Meet the Candidates 13 Recent Papers: Probability Surveys; Stochastic Systems 15 COPSS publishes 50th Marek Biskup Peter Bühlmann Florentina Bunea Sourav Chatterjee anniversary volume 16 Rao Prize Conference 17 Calls for nominations 19 XL-Files: My Valentine’s Escape 20 IMS meetings Frank Den Hollander Holger Dette Geoffrey Grimmett Davy Paindaveine 25 Other meetings 30 Employment Opportunities 31 International Calendar 35 Information for Advertisers Read it online at Kavita Ramanan Jonathan Taylor Aad van der Vaart Naisyin Wang http://bulletin.imstat.org IMSBulletin 2 . -
Peer Review College Newsletter
Peer Review College Newsletter Winter 2014 Launch of New EPSRC Strategic plan CONTENTS Over the last five years the national and international research landscape, and the 1. Launch of New EPSRC context in which EPSRC operates, have changed and continue to develop. To take Strategic plan – page 1 account of this new environment our Strategic Plan has been up-dated, with input from our partners and communities, recognising external influences including 2. EPSRC Policy on the Use the international research landscape, global economic situation and government of Animals in Research strategies. – page 1 We have developed our goals and strategies to reflect this changing landscape and 3. College Member On-line to ensure we maintain focus on our ambitious and unwavering vision: for the UK to Training – page 3 be the best place in the world to research, discover and innovate. Our Strategic Plan also recognises the importance of working in partnership if the UK is to maintain its 4. EPSRCs Peer Review position as a world-leading location for high quality research, and be equally renowned Extranet – page 4 for its innovation. 5. Return for Amendments EPSRC’s CEO, Professor Philip Nelson said: “Our Strategic Plan describes the – page 4 potential of UK science and engineering, its importance to addressing the global and 6. The importance of Pre- domestic challenges that range from energy security to healthcare, and the vital role scores – page 5 it plays in economic growth by fuelling technological progress. It sets out how EPSRC, in partnership with the academic community and industry partners, will unlock that 7. -
Letter from the RSS Covid-19 Task Force To
Letter from the Royal Statistical Society Covid-19 Task Force to the Guardian regarding data transparency 7 August 2020 The Covid-19 public health crisis has placed a sharp emphasis on the role of data in government decision-making. During the current phase – where the emphasis is on Test and Trace and local lockdowns – data is playing an increasingly central role in informing policy. We recognise that the stakes are high and that decisions need to be made quickly. However, this makes it even more important that data is used in a responsible and effective manner. Transparency around the data that are being used to inform decisions is central to this. Over the past week, there have been two major data-led government announcements where the supporting data were not made available at the time. First, the announcement that home and garden visits would be made illegal in parts of northern England. The Prime Minister cited unpublished data which suggested that these visits were the main setting for transmission. Second, the purchase of two new tests for the virus that claim to deliver results within 90 minutes, without data regarding the tests’ effectiveness being published. We are concerned about the lack of transparency in these two cases – these are important decisions and the data upon which they are based should be publicly available for scrutiny, as Paul Nurse pointed out in this paper at the weekend. Government rhetoric often treats data as a managerial tool for informing decisions. But beyond this, transparency and well sign-posted data builds public trust and encourages compliance: the daily provision of statistical information was an integral part of full lockdown and was both expected and valued by the public. -
Annual Review 2009/10
UCL DEPARTMENT OF PHYSICS AND ASTRONOMY PHYSICS AND ASTRONOMY Annual Review 2009–10 Contents Introduction 1 Student Highlights and News 2 Careers 6 Staff Highlights and News 8 Outreach Work 14 The International Year of Astronomy 16 High Energy Physics (HEP) 19 Atomic, Molecular, Optical and Position Physics (AMOPP) 22 Condensed Matter and Materials Physics (CMMP) 24 Astrophysics (Astro) 26 Biological Physics 28 Grants and Contracts 29 Publications 32 Staff 40 Cover image: ‘Castor in Bloom’ by Dr Stephen Fossey This image is a composite of digital photographs taken of the bright star Castor during testing of a new CCD camera on the Radcliffe telescope at UCL’s observatory in Mill Hill (ULO). The telescope has a 24-inch lens to focus the light, and like all such instruments brings light of different colours to a focus at slightly different distances from the lens. The best-focus position for each colour is determined by placing a mask with a circular pattern of holes over the lens, and images through red, green, and blue filters are taken at several focus positions; the mask produces separate images of the star in each out-of-focus colour, with the colour in best focus being more concentrated towards the central spot. Hence, each ‘petal’ of the `flower’ is Castor’s spectral image, dispersed by the telescope lens. PHYSICS AND ASTRONOMY ANNUAL REVIEW 2009–10 1 Introduction At the same time the reviews highlighted Although my comments above suggest a number of areas in which we could that the Department continues to do better. In particular, the panel gave thrive, it is hard not to look at the future us helpful advice on how to improve without considerable concern. -
Carver Award: Lynne Billard We Are Pleased to Announce That the IMS Carver Medal Committee Has Selected Lynne CONTENTS Billard to Receive the 2020 Carver Award
Volume 49 • Issue 4 IMS Bulletin June/July 2020 Carver Award: Lynne Billard We are pleased to announce that the IMS Carver Medal Committee has selected Lynne CONTENTS Billard to receive the 2020 Carver Award. Lynne was chosen for her outstanding service 1 Carver Award: Lynne Billard to IMS on a number of key committees, including publications, nominations, and fellows; for her extraordinary leadership as Program Secretary (1987–90), culminating 2 Members’ news: Gérard Ben Arous, Yoav Benjamini, Ofer in the forging of a partnership with the Bernoulli Society that includes co-hosting the Zeitouni, Sallie Ann Keller, biannual World Statistical Congress; and for her advocacy of the inclusion of women Dennis Lin, Tom Liggett, and young researchers on the scientific programs of IMS-sponsored meetings.” Kavita Ramanan, Ruth Williams, Lynne Billard is University Professor in the Department of Statistics at the Thomas Lee, Kathryn Roeder, University of Georgia, Athens, USA. Jiming Jiang, Adrian Smith Lynne Billard was born in 3 Nominate for International Toowoomba, Australia. She earned both Prize in Statistics her BSc (1966) and PhD (1969) from the 4 Recent papers: AIHP, University of New South Wales, Australia. Observational Studies She is probably best known for her ground-breaking research in the areas of 5 News from Statistical Science HIV/AIDS and Symbolic Data Analysis. 6 Radu’s Rides: A Lesson in Her research interests include epidemic Humility theory, stochastic processes, sequential 7 Who’s working on COVID-19? analysis, time series analysis and symbolic 9 Nominate an IMS Special data. She has written extensively in all Lecturer for 2022/2023 these areas, publishing over 250 papers in Lynne Billard leading international journals, plus eight 10 Obituaries: Richard (Dick) Dudley, S.S. -
Major Greenwood and Clinical Trials
From the James Lind Library Journal of the Royal Society of Medicine; 2017, Vol. 110(11) 452–457 DOI: 10.1177/0141076817736028 Major Greenwood and clinical trials Vern Farewell1 and Tony Johnson2 1MRC Biostatistics Unit, University of Cambridge, Cambridge CB2 0SR, UK 2MRC Clinical Trials Unit, Aviation House, London WC2B 6NH, UK Corresponding author: Vern Farewell. Email: [email protected] Introduction References to Greenwood’s work in clinical trials Major Greenwood (1880–1949) was the foremost medical statistician in the UK during the first Greenwood was a renowned epidemiologist who is not half of the 20th century.1 The son of a general usually associated with randomised clinical trials. At medical practitioner, he obtained a medical degree the time of his retirement, randomised clinical trials from the London Hospital in 1904 and then stu- were still under development and Peter Armitage has died statistics under Karl Pearson at University no recollection of Greenwood commenting on trials College London. Instead of general practice, he when Greenwood visited the London School of opted to pursue a career in medical research, first Hygiene and Tropical Medicine during his retirement under the physiologist Leonard Hill at the London (personal communication). Indeed, randomised clin- Hospital, where, in 1908, he set up the first depart- ical trials were a major component of the work of ment of medical statistics and gave the first lecture Austin Bradford Hill,5 who began his employment in course in the subject in 1909. He established the Greenwood’s department in 1923 and succeeded him second department of medical statistics in 1910 at as professor at the London School of Hygiene and the Lister Institute and established the second Tropical Medicine and director of the Medical course of lectures there. -
Annual Report 20 14
ANNUAL REPORT 2014 HUMAN FRONTIER SCIENCE PROGRAM The Human Frontier Science Program is unique, supporting international collaboration to undertake innovative, risky, basic research at the frontier of the life sciences. Special emphasis is given to the support and training of independent young investigators, beginning at the postdoctoral level. The Program is implemented by an international organisation, supported financially by Australia, Canada, France, Germany, India, Italy, Japan, the Republic of Korea, New Zealand, Norway, Singapore, Switzerland, the United Kingdom, the United States of America, and the European Union. Since 1990, over 6000 awards have been made to researchers from more than 70 countries. Of these, 25 HFSP awardees have gone on to receive the Nobel Prize. APRIL 2014 - MARCH 2015 ANNUAL REPORT — 3 — Table of contents The following documents are available on the HFSP web site www.hfsp.org: Joint Communiqués (Tokyo 1992, Washington 1997, Berlin 2002, Bern 2004, Ottawa 2007, Canberra 2010, Brussels 2013): http://www.hfsp.org/about-us/governance/intergovernmental-conference Statutes of the International Human Frontier Science Program Organization : http://www.hfsp.org/about-us/governance/statutes Guidelines for the participation of new members in HFSPO : http://www.hfsp.org/about-us/new-membership General reviews of the HFSP (1996, 2001, 2006-2007, 2010): http://www.hfsp.org/about-us/reviews-hfsp Updated and previous lists of awards, including titles and abstracts: http://www.hfsp.org/awardees — 4 — INTRODUCTION Introduction -
Design and Analysis Issues in Family-Based Association
Emerging Challenges in Statistical Genetics Duncan Thomas University of Southern California Human Genetics in the Big Science Era • “Big Data” – large n and large p and complexity e.g., NIH Biomedical Big Data Initiative (RFA-HG-14-020) • Large n: challenge for computation and data storage, but not conceptual • Large p: many data mining approaches, few grounded in statistical principles • Sparse penalized regression & hierarchical modeling from Bayesian and frequentist perspectives • Emerging –omics challenges Genetics: from Fisher to GWAS • Population genetics & heritability – Mendel / Fisher / Haldane / Wright • Segregation analysis – Likelihoods on complex pedigrees by peeling: Elston & Stewart • Linkage analysis (PCR / microsats / SNPs) – Multipoint: Lander & Green – MCMC: Thompson • Association – TDT, FBATs, etc: Spielman, Laird – GWAS: Risch & Merikangas – Post-GWAS: pathway mining, next-gen sequencing Association: From hypothesis-driven to agnostic research Candidate pathways Candidate Hierarchical GWAS genes models (ht-SNPs) Ontologies Pathway mining MRC BSU SGX Plans Objectives: – Integrating structural and prior information for sparse regression analysis of high dimensional data – Clustering models for exposure-disease associations – Integrating network information – Penalised regression and Bayesian variable selection – Mechanistic models of cellular processes – Statistical computing for large scale genomics data Targeted areas of impact : – gene regulation and immunological response – biomarker based signatures – targeting -
A Complete Bibliography of Applied Statistics: 1952–1959
A Complete Bibliography of Applied Statistics: 1952{1959 Nelson H. F. Beebe University of Utah Department of Mathematics, 110 LCB 155 S 1400 E RM 233 Salt Lake City, UT 84112-0090 USA Tel: +1 801 581 5254 FAX: +1 801 581 4148 E-mail: [email protected], [email protected], [email protected] (Internet) WWW URL: http://www.math.utah.edu/~beebe/ 14 March 2019 Version 4.03 Title word cross-reference [136]. Adjusting [356]. Administration [81]. Advanced [326, 75]. Age [351]. Agricultural [359, 65, 77]. Aid [104]. Aitchison [269]. Alan [326]. Allen χ2 [199]. [253, 98]. Allocation [211]. Analysed [214]. Analysis -Test [199]. [82, 229, 54, 48, 94, 140, 18, 327, 8, 247, 260, 306, 181, 328, 302, 296, 340, 262, 122, 145, 10th [49]. 11th [254]. 1951 [4]. 231, 160, 57, 285, 341, 152, 93, 324, 359, 92]. Answer [200, 142]. Answers 2 [187]. 2nd [312]. [89, 184, 10, 34, 45]. any [197]. Application [348, 49, 254, 276, 138]. Applications A. [76, 49, 254, 112, 363, 78]. Absence [12, 24, 36, 47, 61, 73, 90, 110, 125, 143, 155, [120, 105]. Absence-Proneness [120]. 173, 185, 201, 26, 312, 246, 132]. Applied Abuses [8]. Acceptance [303]. [347, 140]. Appraisal [166]. Approach Accounting [195]. Accounts [295, 350, 42, 7, 253]. Aptitude [112]. [113, 241, 364]. Accumulation [150]. Arbous [112]. Arithmetic [345]. Arthur Accuracy [31, 118, 9]. Achieve [261]. [266]. Aspects [310, 315]. Assessments Ackoff [159]. Action [120, 130]. Active 1 2 [353]. Associated [95]. Attributes [304]. [278, 320, 180]. Charts [66, 258]. Chemical Auction [277]. Auditing [350, 69]. -
“I Didn't Want to Be a Statistician”
“I didn’t want to be a statistician” Making mathematical statisticians in the Second World War John Aldrich University of Southampton Seminar Durham January 2018 1 The individual before the event “I was interested in mathematics. I wanted to be either an analyst or possibly a mathematical physicist—I didn't want to be a statistician.” David Cox Interview 1994 A generation after the event “There was a large increase in the number of people who knew that statistics was an interesting subject. They had been given an excellent training free of charge.” George Barnard & Robin Plackett (1985) Statistics in the United Kingdom,1939-45 Cox, Barnard and Plackett were among the people who became mathematical statisticians 2 The people, born around 1920 and with a ‘name’ by the 60s : the 20/60s Robin Plackett was typical Born in 1920 Cambridge mathematics undergraduate 1940 Off the conveyor belt from Cambridge mathematics to statistics war-work at SR17 1942 Lecturer in Statistics at Liverpool in 1946 Professor of Statistics King’s College, Durham 1962 3 Some 20/60s (in 1968) 4 “It is interesting to note that a number of these men now hold statistical chairs in this country”* Egon Pearson on SR17 in 1973 In 1939 he was the UK’s only professor of statistics * Including Dennis Lindley Aberystwyth 1960 Peter Armitage School of Hygiene 1961 Robin Plackett Durham/Newcastle 1962 H. J. Godwin Royal Holloway 1968 Maurice Walker Sheffield 1972 5 SR 17 women in statistical chairs? None Few women in SR17: small skills pool—in 30s Cambridge graduated 5 times more men than women Post-war careers—not in statistics or universities Christine Stockman (1923-2015) Maths at Cambridge. -
MRC Biostatistics Unit 2014
MRC Biostatistics Unit 2014 Index 2 Director's introduction 4 Introduction to the Unit 6 Statistical Genomics 7 Focus: Detecting Streptococcus pneumoniae serotypes 8 Design and Analysis of Randomised Trials 9 Focus: Smoking cessation trials 10 Evidence Synthesis to Inform Health 11 Focus: Characterising epidemics 12 Complex and Observational Studies in Longitudinal Data 13 Focus: Modelling of disease 14 Emerging Research 14 Statistics and machine learning for precision medicine 15 Stratified Medicine 16 Training and Career Development 17 PhD programme 18 Careers focus 19 Public Engagement 21 Knowledge Transfer 21 Software and Courses 22 Workshops 22 BSU Timeline 24 Maps and contact details to the Unit Director's Introduction The Medical Research Council has had a statistical unit since its inception in 1913. One hundred years on, the Biostatistics Unit (BSU) is one of the largest groups of biostatisticians in Europe, and a major centre for research, training and knowledge transfer, with the mission “to advance biomedical science by maintaining an international leading centre for the development, application and dissemination of statistical methods”. The critical mass of methodological, applied and computational expertise assembled amongst its staff provides a unique and stimulating environment in cutting edge biostatistics, with a balance between innovation and dissemination of statistical methods. Pioneering work involving fundamental aspects of medical statistics, clinical trials and public health has been developed by eminent members throughout the BSU’s rich history. The randomised controlled trial in medicine, Bradford Hill’s criteria for causality and the 2-stage Armitage Doll theory of carcinogenesis are early landmarks. In the eighties, the BSU responded to national priorities and produced HIV AIDS UK projections.