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AMSTATNEWS the Membership Magazine of the American Statistical Association •
May 2021 • Issue #527 AMSTATNEWS The Membership Magazine of the American Statistical Association • http://magazine.amstat.org 2021 COPSS AWARD WINNERS ALSO: ASA, International Community Continue to Decry Georgiou Persecution Birth of an ASA Outreach Group: The Origins of JEDI AMSTATNEWS MAY 2021 • ISSUE #527 Executive Director Ron Wasserstein: [email protected] Associate Executive Director and Director of Operations Stephen Porzio: [email protected] features Senior Advisor for Statistics Communication and Media Innovation 3 President’s Corner Regina Nuzzo: [email protected] 5 ASA, International Community Continue to Decry Director of Science Policy Georgiou Persecution Steve Pierson: [email protected] Director of Strategic Initiatives and Outreach 8 What a Year! Practical Significance Celebrates Resilient Donna LaLonde: [email protected] Class of 2021 Director of Education 9 Significance Launches Data Economy Series with April Issue Rebecca Nichols: [email protected] 10 CHANCE Highlights: Spring Issue Features Economic Managing Editor Impact of COVID-19, Kullback’s Career, Sharing Data Megan Murphy: [email protected] 11 Forget March Madness! Students Test Probability Skills Editor and Content Strategist with March Randomness Val Nirala: [email protected] 12 My ASA Story: James Cochran Advertising Manager Joyce Narine: [email protected] 14 StatFest Back for 21st Year in 2021 Production Coordinators/Graphic Designers 15 Birth of an ASA Outreach Group: The Origins of JEDI Olivia Brown: [email protected] Megan Ruyle: [email protected] 18 2021 COPSS Award Winners Contributing Staff Members 23 A Story of COVID-19, Mentoring, and West Virginia Kim Gilliam Amstat News welcomes news items and letters from readers on matters of interest to the association and the profession. -
Higher-Order Asymptotics
Higher-Order Asymptotics Todd Kuffner Washington University in St. Louis WHOA-PSI 2016 1 / 113 First- and Higher-Order Asymptotics Classical Asymptotics in Statistics: available sample size n ! 1 First-Order Asymptotic Theory: asymptotic statements that are correct to order O(n−1=2) Higher-Order Asymptotics: refinements to first-order results 1st order 2nd order 3rd order kth order error O(n−1=2) O(n−1) O(n−3=2) O(n−k=2) or or or or o(1) o(n−1=2) o(n−1) o(n−(k−1)=2) Why would anyone care? deeper understanding more accurate inference compare different approaches (which agree to first order) 2 / 113 Points of Emphasis Convergence pointwise or uniform? Error absolute or relative? Deviation region moderate or large? 3 / 113 Common Goals Refinements for better small-sample performance Example Edgeworth expansion (absolute error) Example Barndorff-Nielsen’s R∗ Accurate Approximation Example saddlepoint methods (relative error) Example Laplace approximation Comparative Asymptotics Example probability matching priors Example conditional vs. unconditional frequentist inference Example comparing analytic and bootstrap procedures Deeper Understanding Example sources of inaccuracy in first-order theory Example nuisance parameter effects 4 / 113 Is this relevant for high-dimensional statistical models? The Classical asymptotic regime is when the parameter dimension p is fixed and the available sample size n ! 1. What if p < n or p is close to n? 1. Find a meaningful non-asymptotic analysis of the statistical procedure which works for any n or p (concentration inequalities) 2. Allow both n ! 1 and p ! 1. 5 / 113 Some First-Order Theory Univariate (classical) CLT: Assume X1;X2;::: are i.i.d. -
Front Matter
Cambridge University Press 978-0-521-14577-0 - Probability and Mathematical Genetics Edited by N. H. Bingham and C. M. Goldie Frontmatter More information LONDON MATHEMATICAL SOCIETY LECTURE NOTE SERIES Managing Editor: Professor M. Reid, Mathematics Institute, University of Warwick, Coventry CV4 7AL, United Kingdom The titles below are available from booksellers, or from Cambridge University Press at www.cambridge.org/mathematics 300 Introduction to M¨obiusdifferential geometry, U. HERTRICH-JEROMIN 301 Stable modules and the D(2)-problem, F. E. A. JOHNSON 302 Discrete and continuous nonlinear Schr¨odingersystems, M. J. ABLOWITZ, B. PRINARI & A. D. TRUBATCH 303 Number theory and algebraic geometry, M. REID & A. SKOROBOGATOV (eds) 304 Groups St Andrews 2001 in Oxford I, C. M. CAMPBELL, E. F. ROBERTSON & G. C. SMITH (eds) 305 Groups St Andrews 2001 in Oxford II, C. M. CAMPBELL, E. F. ROBERTSON & G. C. SMITH (eds) 306 Geometric mechanics and symmetry, J. MONTALDI & T. RATIU (eds) 307 Surveys in combinatorics 2003, C. D. WENSLEY (ed.) 308 Topology, geometry and quantum field theory, U. L. TILLMANN (ed) 309 Corings and comodules, T. BRZEZINSKI & R. WISBAUER 310 Topics in dynamics and ergodic theory, S. BEZUGLYI & S. KOLYADA (eds) 311 Groups: topological, combinatorial and arithmetic aspects, T. W. MULLER¨ (ed) 312 Foundations of computational mathematics, Minneapolis 2002, F. CUCKER et al (eds) 313 Transcendental aspects of algebraic cycles, S. MULLER-STACH¨ & C. PETERS (eds) 314 Spectral generalizations of line graphs, D. CVETKOVIC,´ P. ROWLINSON & S. SIMIC´ 315 Structured ring spectra, A. BAKER & B. RICHTER (eds) 316 Linear logic in computer science, T. EHRHARD, P. -
IMS Bulletin July/August 2004
Volume 33 Issue 4 IMS Bulletin July/August 2004 A Message from the (new) President Louis H Y Chen, Director of the Institute CONTENTS for Mathematical Sciences at the 2-3 Members’ News; National University of Singapore, is the Contacting the IMS IMS President for 2004–05. He says: hen I was approached by the 4 Profi le: C F Jeff Wu WCommittee on Nominations in 5 IMS Election Results: January 2003 and asked if I would be President-Elect and Council willing to be a possible nominee for IMS 7 UK Research Assessment; President-Elect, I felt that it was a great Tweedie Travel Award honor for me. However, I could not help 8 Mini-meeting Reports but think that the outcome of the nomi- nation process would most likely be a 10 Project Euclid & Google nominee who is based in the US, because, 11 Calls Roundup except for Willem van Zwet, Nancy Reid of probabilists and statisticians. 14 IMS Meetings and Bernard Silverman, all the 68 past Although IMS is US-based, its infl u- Presidents of IMS were US-based. When ence goes far beyond the US due to its 20 Other Meetings and I was fi nally chosen as the nominee for several fi rst-rate publications and many Announcements President-Elect, I was pleased, not so high quality meetings. Also, IMS has 23 Employment much because I was chosen, but because I reduced membership dues for individuals Opportunities took it as a sign that the outlook of IMS in developing countries to encourage 25 International Calendar of was becoming more international. -
JEROME P. REITER Department of Statistical Science, Duke University Box 90251, Durham, NC 27708 Phone: 919 668 5227
JEROME P. REITER Department of Statistical Science, Duke University Box 90251, Durham, NC 27708 phone: 919 668 5227. email: [email protected]. September 26, 2021 EDUCATION Ph.D. in Statistics, Harvard University, 1999. A.M. in Statistics, Harvard University, 1996. B.S. in Mathematics, Duke University, 1992. DISSERTATION \Estimation in the Presence of Constraints that Prohibit Explicit Data Pooling." Advisor: Donald B. Rubin. POSITIONS Academic Appointments Professor of Statistical Science and Bass Fellow, Duke University, 2015 - present. Mrs. Alexander Hehmeyer Professor of Statistical Science, Duke University, 2013 - 2015. Mrs. Alexander Hehmeyer Associate Professor of Statistical Science, Duke University, 2010 - 2013. Associate Professor of Statistical Science, Duke University, 2009 - 2010. Assistant Professor of Statistical Science, Duke University, 2006 - 2008. Assistant Professor of the Practice of Statistics and Decision Sciences, Duke University, 2002 - 2006. Lecturer in Statistics, University of California at Santa Barbara, 2001 - 2002. Assistant Professor of Statistics, Williams College, 1999 - 2001. Other Appointments Chair, Department of Statistical Science, Duke University, 2019 - present. Associate Chair, Department of Statistical Science, Duke University, 2016 - 2019. Mathematical Statistician (part-time), U. S. Bureau of the Census, 2015 - present. Associate/Deputy Director of Information Initiative at Duke, Duke University, 2013 - 2019. Social Sciences Research Institute Data Services Core Director, Duke University, 2010 - 2013. Interim Director, Triangle Research Data Center, 2006. Senior Fellow, National Institute of Statistical Sciences, 2002 - 2005. 1 ACADEMIC HONORS Keynote talk, 11th Official Statistics and Methodology Symposium (Statistics Korea), 2021. Fellow of the Institute of Mathematical Statistics, 2020. Clifford C. Clogg Memorial Lecture, Pennsylvania State University, 2020 (postponed due to covid-19). -
ZCWPW1 Is Recruited to Recombination Hotspots by PRDM9
RESEARCH ARTICLE ZCWPW1 is recruited to recombination hotspots by PRDM9 and is essential for meiotic double strand break repair Daniel Wells1,2†*, Emmanuelle Bitoun1,2†*, Daniela Moralli1, Gang Zhang1, Anjali Hinch1, Julia Jankowska1, Peter Donnelly1,2, Catherine Green1, Simon R Myers1,2* 1The Wellcome Centre for Human Genetics, Roosevelt Drive, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom; 2Department of Statistics, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom Abstract During meiosis, homologous chromosomes pair and recombine, enabling balanced segregation and generating genetic diversity. In many vertebrates, double-strand breaks (DSBs) initiate recombination within hotspots where PRDM9 binds, and deposits H3K4me3 and H3K36me3. However, no protein(s) recognising this unique combination of histone marks have been identified. We identified Zcwpw1, containing H3K4me3 and H3K36me3 recognition domains, as having highly correlated expression with Prdm9. Here, we show that ZCWPW1 has co-evolved with PRDM9 and, in human cells, is strongly and specifically recruited to PRDM9 binding sites, with higher affinity than sites possessing H3K4me3 alone. Surprisingly, ZCWPW1 also recognises CpG dinucleotides. Male Zcwpw1 knockout mice show completely normal DSB positioning, but persistent DMC1 foci, severe DSB repair and synapsis defects, and downstream sterility. Our findings suggest ZCWPW1 recognition of PRDM9-bound sites at DSB hotspots is critical for *For correspondence: synapsis, and hence fertility. [email protected] (DW); [email protected] (EB); [email protected] (SRM) †These authors contributed Introduction equally to this work Meiosis is a specialised cell division, producing haploid gametes essential for reproduction. Uniquely, during this process homologous maternal and paternal chromosomes pair and exchange Competing interests: The DNA (recombine) before undergoing balanced independent segregation. -
Elect New Council Members
Volume 43 • Issue 3 IMS Bulletin April/May 2014 Elect new Council members CONTENTS The annual IMS elections are announced, with one candidate for President-Elect— 1 IMS Elections 2014 Richard Davis—and 12 candidates standing for six places on Council. The Council nominees, in alphabetical order, are: Marek Biskup, Peter Bühlmann, Florentina Bunea, Members’ News: Ying Hung; 2–3 Sourav Chatterjee, Frank Den Hollander, Holger Dette, Geoffrey Grimmett, Davy Philip Protter, Raymond Paindaveine, Kavita Ramanan, Jonathan Taylor, Aad van der Vaart and Naisyin Wang. J. Carroll, Keith Crank, You can read their statements starting on page 8, or online at http://www.imstat.org/ Bani K. Mallick, Robert T. elections/candidates.htm. Smythe and Michael Stein; Electronic voting for the 2014 IMS Elections has opened. You can vote online using Stephen Fienberg; Alexandre the personalized link in the email sent by Aurore Delaigle, IMS Executive Secretary, Tsybakov; Gang Zheng which also contains your member ID. 3 Statistics in Action: A If you would prefer a paper ballot please contact IMS Canadian Outlook Executive Director, Elyse Gustafson (for contact details see the 4 Stéphane Boucheron panel on page 2). on Big Data Elections close on May 30, 2014. If you have any questions or concerns please feel free to 5 NSF funding opportunity e [email protected] Richard Davis contact Elyse Gustafson . 6 Hand Writing: Solving the Right Problem 7 Student Puzzle Corner 8 Meet the Candidates 13 Recent Papers: Probability Surveys; Stochastic Systems 15 COPSS publishes 50th Marek Biskup Peter Bühlmann Florentina Bunea Sourav Chatterjee anniversary volume 16 Rao Prize Conference 17 Calls for nominations 19 XL-Files: My Valentine’s Escape 20 IMS meetings Frank Den Hollander Holger Dette Geoffrey Grimmett Davy Paindaveine 25 Other meetings 30 Employment Opportunities 31 International Calendar 35 Information for Advertisers Read it online at Kavita Ramanan Jonathan Taylor Aad van der Vaart Naisyin Wang http://bulletin.imstat.org IMSBulletin 2 . -
Causality: Readings in Statistics and Econometrics Hedibert F
Causality: Readings in Statistics and Econometrics Hedibert F. Lopes, INSPER http://www.hedibert.org/current-teaching/#tab-causality Annotated Bibliography 1 Articles 1. Angrist and Imbens (1995) Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation of Average Causal Effects in Models With Variable Treatment Intensity. JASA, 90, 431-442. 2. Angrist and Krueger (1991) Does compulsory school attendance affect earnings? Quarterly Journal of Economic, 106, 979-1019. 3. Angrist, Imbens and Rubin (1996) Identification of causal effects using instrumental variables (with discussion). JASA, 91, 444-472. 4. Athey and Imbens (2015) Machine Learning Methods for Estimating Heterogeneous Causal Effects. 5. Balke and Pearl (1995). Counterfactuals and policy analysis in structural models. In Besnard and Hanks, Eds., Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence, Proceedings of the Eleventh Conference. Morgan Kaufmann, San Francisco, 11-18. 6. Bareinboim and Pearl (2015) Causal inference from big data: Theoretical foundations and the data-fusion problem. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. 7. Bollen and Pearl (2013) Eight myths about causality and structural equation models. In Morgan (Ed.) Handbook of Causal Analysis for Social Research, Chapter 15, 301-328. Springer. 8. Bound, Jaeger, and Baker (1995) Problems with Instrumental Variables Estimation when the Correlation Be- tween the Instruments and the Endogenous Regressors is Weak. JASA, 90, 443-450. 9. Brito and Pearl (2002) Generalized instrumental variables. In Darwiche and Friedman, Eds. Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence, Proceedings of the Eighteenth Conference. Morgan Kaufmann, San Francisco, 85-93. 10. Brzeski, Taddy and raper (2015) Causal Inference in Repeated Observational Studies: A Case Study of eBay Product Releases. arXiv:1509.03940v1. 11. Chambaz, Drouet and Thalabard (2014) Causality, a Trialogue. -
Can P-Values Be Meaningfully Interpreted Without Random Sampling?
A Service of Leibniz-Informationszentrum econstor Wirtschaft Leibniz Information Centre Make Your Publications Visible. zbw for Economics Hirschauer, Norbert; Grüner, Sven; Mußhoff, Oliver; Becker, Claudia; Jantsch, Antje Article — Published Version Can p-values be meaningfully interpreted without random sampling? Statistics Surveys Provided in Cooperation with: Leibniz Institute of Agricultural Development in Transition Economies (IAMO), Halle (Saale) Suggested Citation: Hirschauer, Norbert; Grüner, Sven; Mußhoff, Oliver; Becker, Claudia; Jantsch, Antje (2020) : Can p-values be meaningfully interpreted without random sampling?, Statistics Surveys, ISSN 1935-7516, Cornell University Library, Ithaca, NY, Vol. 14, pp. 71-91, http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/20-SS129 , https://projecteuclid.org/euclid.ssu/1585274548 This Version is available at: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/215709 Standard-Nutzungsbedingungen: Terms of use: Die Dokumente auf EconStor dürfen zu eigenen wissenschaftlichen Documents in EconStor may be saved and copied for your Zwecken und zum Privatgebrauch gespeichert und kopiert werden. personal and scholarly purposes. Sie dürfen die Dokumente nicht für öffentliche oder kommerzielle You are not to copy documents for public or commercial Zwecke vervielfältigen, öffentlich ausstellen, öffentlich zugänglich purposes, to exhibit the documents publicly, to make them machen, vertreiben oder anderweitig nutzen. publicly available on the internet, or to distribute or otherwise use the documents in public. Sofern die Verfasser die Dokumente unter Open-Content-Lizenzen (insbesondere CC-Lizenzen) zur Verfügung gestellt haben sollten, If the documents have been made available under an Open gelten abweichend von diesen Nutzungsbedingungen die in der dort Content Licence (especially Creative Commons Licences), you genannten Lizenz gewährten Nutzungsrechte. may exercise further usage rights as specified in the indicated licence. -
BFF Workshop Participant List April 28 – May 1, 2019
BFF Workshop Participant List April 28 – May 1, 2019 Pierre Barbillon Gonzalo Garcia-Donato AgroParisTech Universidad de Castilla-La Mancha Samopriya Basu Edward George UNC - Chapel Hill Wharton, University of Pennsylvania Jim Berger Malay Ghosh Duke University University of Florida David R. Bickel Subhashis Ghoshal University of Ottawa North Carolina State University Alisa Bokulich Ruobin Gong Boston University Rutgers University Sudip Bose Mengyang Gu George Washington University Johns Hopkins University Fang Cai Yawen Guan Stanford University NC State University / SAMSI Hongyuan Cao Jan Hannig Florida State University UNC Chapel Hill Iain Carmichael Leah Henderson UNC Chapel Hill University of Groningen Jesse Clifton Wei Hu North Carolina State University Univeristy of California, Irvine Philip Dawid Michael Jordan University of Cambridge University of California, Berkeley David Dunson Kevin Kelly Duke University Carnegie Mellon University Anabel Forte-Deltell Todd Kuffner Universitat de Valencia Washington University, St. Louis Donald Fraser Subrata Kundu University of Toronto George Washington University BFF Workshop Participant List April 28 – May 1, 2019 Thomas Lee Shyamal Peddada University of California, Davis University of Pittsburgh Xinyi Li Elmor Peterson SAMSI Retired Gang Li Bruce Pitman University of North Carolina at Chapel University at Buffalo Hill Zhengling Qi Cong Lin University of North Carolina at Chapel East China Normal University Hill Regina Liu Nancy Reid Rutgers University University of Toronto Pulong Ma Ramchandra -
IMS Bulletin Volume 36, Issue 9: November 2007
Volume 36 • Issue 9 IMS Bulletin November 2007 Advising junior faculty on research IMS Bulletin Editor Xuming He writes: CONTENTS If there is one thing that all statisticians agree on today, it is the recognition that 1 How do we evaluate statistics has evolved from a mathematical sub-field to a cross-cutting scientific disci- research? pline. Along with this exciting evolution come new challenges to a new generation of 2 Members’ News: Debajyoti academic statisticians. Junior faculty members in the statistics departments or in math- Sinha; Peter Donnelly; ematical sciences departments are often unsure how their co-authored papers and/or Donald Gaver their interdisciplinary research will be evaluated for their promotion. Sometimes they receive conflicting advice from senior members of our profession who have developed 4–6 Evaluating research: responses their career in a very different environment. To stimulate discussion and debate that may eventually help build consensus in our 7 Journal news; Randy Sitter profession and help our junior faculty choose the best course for their career develop- 8 IMS awards; ment in today’s competitive academic world, the Bulletin sought opinions from senior Laha recipients’ comments mentors and department chairs on how 10 IMS Reception photos they would advise junior faculty on the following questions. 11 Awards and nominations 1. Should junior faculty members go 12 WNAR/IMS meeting report for quality at the cost of quantity for 13 Rick’s Ramblings: Chuck’s publications? Rule 2. Should they refrain from too much interdisciplinary work, which often 14 Terence’s Stuff: Letters leads to publication in non-statistical 15 SPA and IMS journal rates journals? 16 IMS Meetings 3. -
Letter from the RSS Covid-19 Task Force To
Letter from the Royal Statistical Society Covid-19 Task Force to the Guardian regarding data transparency 7 August 2020 The Covid-19 public health crisis has placed a sharp emphasis on the role of data in government decision-making. During the current phase – where the emphasis is on Test and Trace and local lockdowns – data is playing an increasingly central role in informing policy. We recognise that the stakes are high and that decisions need to be made quickly. However, this makes it even more important that data is used in a responsible and effective manner. Transparency around the data that are being used to inform decisions is central to this. Over the past week, there have been two major data-led government announcements where the supporting data were not made available at the time. First, the announcement that home and garden visits would be made illegal in parts of northern England. The Prime Minister cited unpublished data which suggested that these visits were the main setting for transmission. Second, the purchase of two new tests for the virus that claim to deliver results within 90 minutes, without data regarding the tests’ effectiveness being published. We are concerned about the lack of transparency in these two cases – these are important decisions and the data upon which they are based should be publicly available for scrutiny, as Paul Nurse pointed out in this paper at the weekend. Government rhetoric often treats data as a managerial tool for informing decisions. But beyond this, transparency and well sign-posted data builds public trust and encourages compliance: the daily provision of statistical information was an integral part of full lockdown and was both expected and valued by the public.