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Statisticians in World War II: They also served | The Economist http://www.economist.com/news/christmas-specials/21636589-how-statis... More from The Economist My Subscription Subscribe Log in or register World politics Business & finance Economics Science & technology Culture Blogs Debate Multimedia Print edition Statisticians in World War II Comment (3) Timekeeper reading list They also served E-mail Reprints & permissions Print How statisticians changed the war, and the war changed statistics Dec 20th 2014 | From the print edition Like 3.6k Tweet 337 Advertisement “I BECAME a statistician because I was put in prison,” says Claus Moser. Aged 92, he can look back on a distinguished career in academia and civil service: he was head of the British government statistical service in 1967-78 and made a life peer in 2001. But Follow The Economist statistics had never been his plan. He had dreamed of being a pianist and when he realised that was unrealistic, accepted his father’s advice that he should study commerce and manage hotels. (“He thought I would like the music in the lobby.”) War threw these plans into disarray. In 1936, aged 13, he fled Germany with his family; four years later the prime minister, Winston Churchill, decided that because some of the refugees might be spies, he would “collar the lot”. Lord Moser was interned in Huyton, Latest updates » near Liverpool (pictured above). “If you lock up 5,000 Jews we will find something to do,” The Economist explains : Where Islamic he says now. Someone set up a café; there were lectures and concerts—and a statistical State gets its money office run by a mathematician named Landau. One day Lord Moser sat with him at lunch. The Economist explains | 3 hours 18 mins ago By the meal’s end he had agreed to be the mathematician’s assistant—and found his vocation. Remembering Mario Cuomo : Hamlet on the Hudson Released after a few months on account of his youth (aged In this section Democracy in America | Jan 3rd, 21:54 just 17, he should never have been interned), he studied The rule of three statistics instead of commerce at the London School of Quick Study : Benjamin Voyer on the The uses of history Economics, and graduated with a stellar first. That, and his psychology of teamwork fluent German, earned him a place in a top-secret group Conquistador of Metroland Prospero | Jan 2nd, 19:19 based in newly liberated Versailles that visited the sites of The flight of the turkey Portable Wi-Fi routers : Bypass operation RAF bombing raids to find out whether pilots’ reports of the I will survive damage they had done matched reality. (On the whole, yes; Gulliver | Jan 2nd, 15:27 Perfidious America a little exaggeration.) After the war he became an academic. On the trail of Hernán When in 1967 the prime minister, Harold Wilson, asked him Cortés Influential economists : That ranking to become head of the government statistical service, the The man who thought Free exchange | Jan 2nd, 11:22 recognition felt particularly sweet: just two years earlier he Gandhi a sissy had been refused a sabbatical in the same branch of public Empire of the pig service because of his former status as an enemy alien. Ancient and modern Jefferson and religious liberty : The father mariners of freedom Random walks Erasmus | Jan 2nd, 10:41 Why is everyone so busy? Some war stories are tales of derring-do; others are more They also served cerebral. Both types specialise in plot twists: wars knock The Légion d’Honneur : Piketty’s snub people off one path and onto another. Lord Moser was one The wild bunch Europe | Jan 2nd, 09:03 of dozens of young men in Britain who would never have Handicapped become statisticians had it not been for the war, who helped The baseball-card bubble More latest updates » win it for Britain and its allies—and who went on to transform Only fools and horses statistics. The loneliness of Tony Blair Wars are when governments find the money and will to Reprints Most popular make things happen, says Eileen Magnello, a historian of statistics. As it mobilised and supplied troops, grew and Related topics rationed food, and retooled factories to make shells, planes 1 1 of 5 1/4/2015 7:10 PM Statisticians in World War II: They also served | The Economist http://www.economist.com/news/christmas-specials/21636589-how-statis... and tanks, Britain’s government realised that its knowledge University College London Poland's would-be guerrillas of the country’s society, economy and manufacturing skills Science The Home Army is back was not up to the task—and that statisticians could help. Mathematics “When I was called upon to clothe the army in May 1939, the Science and technology 2 New York’s mayor : The blue thread frays War Office had no statistical evidence to assist me,” wrote United Kingdom 3 Western Muslims and Egypt : Telling (all) hard Frederick Marquis, first Earl of Woolton and minister of food truths for much of the war, in 1946. “I had the greatest difficulty in arriving at any figures that 4 Savarkar, Modi’s mentor : The man who thought Gandhi a sissy would show how many suits of uniform and how many boots were involved.” Estimates of 5 Ukrainian Bessarabia : Towards the unknown losses in action or from attacks on supply dumps “were little more than guesses”. He region turned to Major Greenwood, an epidemiologist at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine. “In those urgent months before the war [he helped me] to create a Advertisement statistical basis on which the operations of this aspect of the war effort could be built.” In 1939 Churchill, then first Lord of the Admiralty, asked Frederick Lindemann, a distinguished scientist, to set up a statistical arm of the civil service. When Churchill became prime minister the following year the “S Branch” became his personal statistical service, and a central office was created. The Royal Statistical Society (RSS) had proposed something Ministries drove Churchill to similar in 1919, only to be told it would be distraction with conflicting figures impracticable. But now the alternative was on crucial subjects such as shipping unbearable. Ministries drove Churchill to tonnage distraction with conflicting figures on crucial subjects such as shipping tonnage. The central office, the war cabinet was told, would produce “a regular series of figures on a coherent and well-ordered basisthat will be accepted and used without question”. The new statisticians worked on government accounts; rationing (which ensured no Britons starved and greatly improved the diet of the poorest third); manpower surveys; the “pay as you earn” system of taxation (which raised the cash needed to wage the war); and the Beveridge Report on social insurance that later led to the founding of the welfare state. The lady tasting tea Karl Pearson is regarded as the father of modern statistics. In 1911 he founded the world’s first statistics department, at University College London (UCL), aiming to convert statistics from “the playing field of dilettanti and controversialists into a serious branch of science”. A freethinker, proto-feminist and believer in “war with inferior races” as essential to improving what eugenicists called the “human stock”, he put the study of variation within populations, and correlations between characteristics, on a firm Products and events intellectual footing. (Readers who have done a first course in statistics will know him from the chi-squared test.) Have you listened to The Economist Radio on Facebook? Ronald Fisher, at first Pearson’s protégé and then, as two big egos clashed, his enemy, The Economist Radio is an on-demand social had turned down a post in Pearson’s department in 1919 and gone instead to listening platform that allows you to listen, share and Rothamsted, an obscure agricultural research station in Hertfordshire that wanted recommend The Economist audio content someone to make sense of its records from 76 years of crop trials. As he did what he described later as “raking over the muck-heap”, Fisher realised that many had been too Test your EQ Take our weekly news quiz to stay on top of the poorly done to prove anything at all. headlines So he set out to understand how such work could be done most efficiently, and without the In Other Words results being swamped by external influences such as the weather. His answer was to Try our new audio app and website, providing vary several factors of interest simultaneously, and randomly assign different treatments reporting and analysis from our correspondents to different plots. He criticised the conventional wisdom that “we must ask Nature few around the world every weekday questions, or, ideally, one question, at a time. The writer is convinced that this view is wholly mistaken. Nature, he suggests, will best respond to a logical and carefully thought Want more from The Economist? out questionnaire.” Visit The Economist e-store and you’ll find a range of carefully selected products for business and He was the first person to think systematically about when to discount chance as the pleasure, Economist books and diaries, and much explanation of a trial’s result. He used a parodically English example: that of the “lady more tasting tea”. A woman claims she can tell by the taste whether milk has been poured into a cup before the tea or after it. How often does she have to be tested, and how often must she be right, to be believed? 17.2% 2013 6 Stocks He reasoned that when comparing treatments (such as pouring the milk first or last), a Annuity to Hold researcher should look at the probability that a difference at least as big as that observed would have occurred if the treatments were the same—for example, if the lady could not Return Forever really distinguish milk first from milk last by taste.