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EU Elections Weekly Update

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EU Elections Weekly Update EU Elections Weekly Update 17 May 2019 EU Elections Timeline European Elections September - October 23-26 Parliamentary hearings of May Commissioners designate 1 Nov 15-18 18 April End of June Jul New Commision Last session of the European Council takes office outgoing Parliament proposes a candidate Election of the for the Commission Commission President President by the Parliament EP vote of consent of the new Commission + European Council formally Jun appoints the commission Elected candidates negotiate 21-24 to form political groups for the Oct upcoming Parliament’s 9th term 15 May 2-4 July - September November - December Lead candidates’ Jul Member States Exchange of views on debate in the EU propose members multinational priorities, Parliament Inaugural plenary session of the newly- of the Commission Commission Work elected Parliament Programme On 2 July, the Parliament’s 9th term will start and MEPs will meet for its constituent 2 Jul session in Strasbourg. MEPs will elect the President, the 14 Vice-Presidents and the five Quaestors of the House and decide on the number and composition of Parliament’s standing and sub committees - thereby launching the new legislative term. 2 The last Spitzenkandidaten debate: the Brussels debate Six lead candidates from the main European political parties were present for the third debate for the future European Commission Presidency. The candidates present were Manfred Weber (EPP), Frans Timmermans (S&D), Jan Zahradil (Alliance of Conservatives and Reformists for Europe), Margrethe Vestager (ALDE), Nico Cué (European Left), and Ska Keller (Greens). The debate was focusing on climate change and common taxes and wages. Fight against climate change Climate change is for the first time a priority of the European election campaign. One of the main questions debated by the candidates was how to tackle global warming. Except for Mr Zahradil, all candidates gave their support to the European Commission’s proposed target of reducing carbon emissions to zero by 2050. Mr Timmermans believes the Socialists, the Greens and the European Left could unite a spectrum of progressive politicians on this matter. This alliance could go from “Tspiras all the way to Macron” in order to make sure climate change is at the top of the next Commission’s agenda. Although Mr Weber supports the carbon neutrality objective for 2050, he believes green policies need to be implemented with consideration for the economy in order to preserve jobs. Candidates from the Greens and the Socialists took this opportunity to denounce the EPP’s opposition to more ambitious climate change during the last EP mandate. Common taxes and wages Mr Timmermans plans to expand the Erasmus student exchange programme to professionals, boost the Youth Guarantee scheme and implement a European minimum wage standard. This proposal of a minimum wage is also supported by the Greens, the Left and the Liberals. For Mr Weber, the response to unemployment is “good economic policy, infrastructure, research and trade with the establishment of an even stronger single market”. Candidates from S&D, ALDE and the Greens found common ground on the need to establish a common European corporate tax and tax on digital giants. Mr Zahradil believes that it is up to the Member States to tax corporation and not the EU. He supported a “scaled-back, flexible, decentralised” Europe that supports national policies. More insights are available on EurActiv and Politico websites. 3 EP seat projections - May 2019 Seat projections for the next European Parliament EU28 – 16 May 2019 Politico publishes a new set of projections every day on how the next chamber might look. The following is dated 16 May. Source: https://www.politico.eu/2019-european-elections/ The European People’s Party is expected to remain the largest political grouping in the European Parliament after May’s election. The latest seat projections released by the European Parliament give the EPP 171 seats representing 25 national delegations. The Socialists and Democrats will place second with 144 seats. This projection takes into account the new group formed by the Alliance of Liberals and Democrats of Europe (ALDE) and Macron’s party “Renaissance”, who will create “a new group, a global group, a pro- European centrist group” as stated by Guy Verhofstadt during a Spitzenkandidaten debate. The group is projected to have 103 seats, growing by 35 seats. The European Parliament’s analysis shows gains by Eurosceptic and far-right political parties. The Europe of Nations and Freedom (ENF) is expected to have 72 seats. 4 Member States Parties affiliations to European political groups Member State Parties European Party Affiliations Belgium Parti Socialiste (PS) / Francophone Social Democratic party Socialistische Partij. Anders (SPA) / Flemish Social Democratic party Party of European Socialists Christen-Democratisch & Vlaams (CD&V) / Flemish Christian-Democrats Centre Démocrate Humaniste (CDH) / Francophone Christian-Democrats European People’s Party Christlich-Soziale Partei (CSP) / German-speaking christian-democratic party Alliance of Liberals and Mouvement Réformateur (MR) / Francophone Liberals Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten (Open VLD) / Flemish Liberals Democrats in Europe Écologistes (ECOLO) / Francophone Greens De Vlaamse Groenen (GROEN) / Flemish Greens European Green Party European Conservatives and Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie (N-VA) / Flemish nationalists Reformists Vlaams Belang (VB) / Flemish Far Right Europe of Nations and Freedom France Envie D’europe Écologique Et Sociale (Parti Socialiste) Parti Radical de Gauche (PRG) Party of European Socialists Renaissance - La République En Marche! (EM) - Mouvement Démocrate (MoDem) - Alliance of Liberals and Agir / Liberal Union des démocrates et indépendants (UDI) / Liberal Democrats for Europe Les Républicains (LR) / Les Républicains (LR) / Conservative Conservative European People’s Party Europe Écologie Les Verts (EELV) / Greens European Green Party La France Insoumise (FI) / Left-wing Now the People Europe of Nations and Freedom Rassemblement national (RN) / Right-wing Group Germany Christlich Demokratische Union (CDU) / Christian-Democrats Christlich-Soziale Union (CSU) / Christian-Democrats [Bavaria] European People’s Party Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (SPD) / Social-Democrats Party of European Socialists Die Linke / Left-wing Party of European Left Alliance of Liberals and Freie Demokratische Partei (FDP) / Liberals Democrats for Europe Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Grüne) / Greens Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (ÖDP) / Greens European Green Party Freie Wähler / Liberal European Democratic Party 5 Member States Parties affiliations to European political groups Member State Parties European Party Affiliations Ireland Fine Gael / Centre-right European People’s Party Labour / Social Democrats Party of European Socialists Alliance of Liberals and Fianna Fáil / Centre-right Democrats for Europe Party Sinn Féin / Left-wing nationalism, democratic socialism Luke ‘Ming’ Flanagan / Left-wing Populism No European Affiliation Social Democrats Party / Social democrats Italy Partito Democratico (PD) / Social Democrats Party of European Socialists Forza Italia (FI) / Centre-right European People’s Party Movement for a Europe of Lega / Right-wing Nations and Freedom European Conservatives and Fratelli d’Italia – Noi con l’Italia, NcI (FdI–NcI) / Right-wing alliance Reformists Movimento 5 Stelle (Five Star Movement) / Populist Liberi e Uguali (LeU) / Left-wing alliance No European Affiliation Spain Partido Popular (PP) / Conservatives European People’s Party Partido Socialista Obrero Español (PSOE), electoral coalition with Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC) / Social Democrats Party of European Socialists Ciudadanos (Cs) / Liberals Alliance of Liberals and Unidos Podemos / Now the People Left-wing Democrats for Europe Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya (ERC) / Left-wing Catalan Nationalism European Free Alliance VOX / Right-wing Junts per Catalunya (JuntsxCat) / Liberal Catalan Nationalism No European Affiliation Iniciativa Feminista United Kingdom Labour / Centre-left Party of European Socialists Alliance of European Conservatives Conservatives and Reformists Alliance of Liberals and Liberal Democracts Democrats for Europe Greens European Green Party Scottish National Party (SNP) / Scottish nationalism and social democracy European Free Alliance Brexit Party - UKIP Not affiliated Change UK European People’s Party 6 Member States Parties affiliations to European political groups European Elections Projections by Member States France France’s elections were until recently dominated by the Centre-left Socialists (PS) and the Centre-right Gaullists (LR, formerly UMP). This dominance was broken in 2017 by the populist far-right RN and Macron’s centrist party La Republique en marche. But Macron’s popular support as President as well as his reform agenda suffered a major setback with the Gilets Jaunes protests. Despite this, la Republique en Marche is expected to win a tight victory with 23.5-25% of the vote (so 23-25 MEP) which will join ALDE. But the far-right RN might repeat its 2014 success by finishing first. Projections expect them to win at least 21 seats for the Europe of Nations and Freedom. The Centre-right would obtain 11-13 seats for the EPP while the Greens will sin 8 seats for the Green-European Free Alliance (Greens/EFA). Melenchon’s France Insoumise should win 7 seats. According to the last projections, the Socialists are not expected to win
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