EU Election results

28 May 2019 EU Elections Timeline

WC July 8 30 September - Election of 10 October Committee Chairs 28 May and Vice-Chairs Parliamentary hearings of Commissioners designate First meeting of 1 Conference of 20-21 June Presidents (political Nov group laders) 15-18 Jul New Commision decides nominee takes office European Council for Commission top dinner to take stock jobs (Presidents of elects the European of EP elections Commission, Council Commission President and ECB)

WC 1 July June

Election of EP vote of consent on June European the new Commission Parliament + European Council Elected candidates President and formally appoints the negotiate to form VPs Commission political groups for the upcoming Parliament’s 9th term July - September November - December

Appointment of MEPs 2-4 July Member States Exchange of views on to EP Committees & propose members multinational priorities, Inaugural plenary Delegatiolns of the Commission Commission Work session of the newly- Programme elected Parliament Appointment of political group coordinators (lead) on Committees

The European Parliament’s 9th term will begin on 2 July, when Members of the European Parliament will meet for its first session in Strasbourg, France. MEPs will elect the President, the 14 Vice-Presidents and the five Quaestors of the House and decide on the number and 2 Jul composition of Parliament’s standing and sub-committees - thereby launching the new legislative term.

2 Seats distribution for the new European Parliament (EU28) - Left–right

Source: https://election-results.eu/

The scramble for a new majority coalition

For the first time since 1979, Europe’s centre-right and centre-left political groups will be too small to form a majority in the European Parliament between them. This opens the door to a period of uncertainty as other political groups vie for power within the Parliament, which plays an increasingly important role in the political life of the 28-member with a co-decision role in most policy areas. The result could look more like a national coalition government than the de facto grand coalition that has prevailed in Brussels for decades.

Pro-EU parties will still control a substantial majority in the Parliament, but it is too early to say which will have the biggest say. The Socialists, and Greens - all of which are steadily pro-EU - have vowed to break the conservatives’ recent monopoly on the leadership of the EU institutions.

The centre-right European People’s Party (EPP) remains the biggest party in the European Parliament after Sunday’s European election despite a shrinking to 180 seats from 216 seats in the previous Parliament. The centre-left Socialists & Democrats (S&D) group is expected to come in second with 146 seats, down from 187 previously. A new centrist-liberal coalition (ALDE plus Renaissance) led by French President and Dutch Prime Minister is predicted to come in third with 109 seats. These elections see a growing “Green wave” in the Parliament with 69 seats for the environmentalist party.

The far right, meanwhile, is expected to win 112 seats, with Italian Deputy Prime Minister Matteo Salvini’s Northern League alliance doubling in size versus the previous Parliament. It remains to be seen whether they would join – or be welcome in – the EPP, which has sought to rein in other Eurosceptic EPP political group members including Hungary’s Fidesz Party.

3 Coalition scenarios

As no group has a majority by itself, the political groups now have to build a majority coalition. Here are some of the options:

EPP – S&D – ALDE&R - GREENS

EPP – S&D – ALDE&R

Source: https://www.politico.eu/2019-european-elections/

4 Coalition scenarios

EPP – S&D – GREENS

Source: https://election-results.eu/tools/majority-calculator/

5 European elections results by Member State

Following the results of the European elections, our team made a selection of EU countries which are the most relevant to our clients. Please find a detailed analysis on the election’s results in France, Germany, Italy, Ireland, the Netherlands, , and the UK.

France

Source: https://election-results.eu/france/

French President Emmanuel Macron’s party failed to defeat Marine le Pen’s far right National Rally (RN). Her party took first place in the election with 22 seats, while Macron’s Renaissance list won 21 seats. The big surprise of these elections for France was the good performance by the “Europe Ecologie-Les Verts’, which won 12 seats. It then became the third largest French force in the new European Parliament.

It was expected that Les Republicains would become the third party. Instead, the party lost 8 of the 16 seats it had previously. , Melenchon’s far , won 6 seats, while le Parti socialiste won only 4 seats, confirming the slow collapse of the party.

• Voter turnout was up compared to the last EU election, standing at 50.12%, up 7.7 points from 2014.

Nathalie Loiseau, Renaissance’s top candidate

One noteworthy new French MEP is Nathalie Loiseau. She was the top candidate for President’s Macron party electoral list. As a member of his government, she was Minister for European Affairs until March 2019, when she began to run as a candidate for the European Parliament. She is in favour of a stronger ecological transition and believes that 40% of the EU budget should be used for this.

6 European elections results by Member State

Germany

Source: https://election-results.eu/germany/

While the CDU and its CSU (EPP) allies managed to remain the largest German party in Parliament, the party nevertheless lost 7% compared to 2014. The results are even worse for the SPD (S&D), which saw its support shrink to 15.5% and fall behind the rising Green Party (Greens). The results could have significant consequences for the German government, as the pressure on the SPD to quit the coalition arises. Meanwhile, the Greens are riding high, increasing their score to 20.5% and coming in second place. The far- right Alternative for Germany took 11% of the vote. With such results, the Greens will certainly have a more decisive impact in the Parliament during the next term.

• Voter turnout was up compared to the last EU election, standing at 61.41%, up 13.31 points from 2014.

Katarina Barley, SPD’s top candidate

Current German Justice minister and SPD frontrunner Katarina Barley made headlines with her comments regarding tougher legislation on big tech companies, calling on industry giants such as Facebook and Amazon to do more or face fines. The experienced politician, with both German and British citizenship, is planning to strengthen the calls for more stringent legislation regarding data privacy and other digital matters coming from the Parliament in the next legislative mandate.

7 European elections results by Member State

Ireland

Source: https://election-results.eu/ireland/

On 24 May, 49.30% of Irish citizens cast their votes to send 11 MEPs to the European Parliament.

As predicted, current exit polls show Fine Gael – the Centre-Right Irish party (EPP) led by Leo Varadkar, getting 29% of the votes and sending 4 MEPs to the European Parliament. In second place, The Green Party (Greens/EFA) and Independent candidates secured 15% of the votes and 2 MEPs each. The Green Party, in particular, had a strong showing considering that in 2014 it received only 4.9% of the vote. Behind them stand Fianna Fail (ALDE), also with 15% of votes but with only one MEP and Sinn Fein (GUE/NGL), which got 13% of the votes and will send two MEPs. The (S&D), Social Democrats (S&D) and other independents will likely not succeed in getting a seat in this European Parliament.

• Voter turnout was slightly down compared to the last EU election, standing at 49.3%, down 3.1 points from 2014.

Ciaran Cuffe, Green Party candidate

The biggest surprise from Ireland is the Green Party candidate Ciaran Cuffe, who is likely to be the first elected to the four-seat Dublin constituency. This signals a growing demand for climate change to be prioritised more by a bigger priority for the government.

8 European elections results by Member State

Italy

Source: https://election-results.eu/italy/

For the first time ever, the League became the first party from Italy, confirming the nation-wide rise of a regional party that has its roots in the prosperous Northeast. Results on Monday gave the League a resounding 34.33% win, exceeding all expectations. Alongside the usual anti-immigration campaign, Matteo Salvini, Italy’s deputy prime minister, made demographics a key component of his campaign as part of a nativist vision to reverse Italy’s shrinking population and protect Italian identity.

The (PD) celebrated a good electoral performance that partly compensated for their terrible result in last year’s general election in Italy. The centre-left PD, which won just 18% in the general election, took 22.7% of the vote, clawing back some votes from the Five Star Movement (M5S).

The Democratic Party became the second largest Italian party in the European Parliament, bringing an expected 18 seats to the Progressive Alliance of Socialists and Democrats.

• Voter turnout was slightly down compared to the last EU election, standing at 56.10%, down 2.6 points from 2014.

Solidarity comes to Brussels: Pietro Bartolo, the doctor from Lampedusa, got elected

Amid gains by xenophobic parties in many countries, Pietro Bartolo, a contrarian doctor from Lampedusa and candidate of the Democratic Party, was elected with 135,098 preferences in his electoral district. A doctor for the past 30 years in the polyclinic of Lampedusa, Bartolo stated the importance of “curbing this populist, sovereign and xenophobic drift, because our country does not deserve to be represented by those who sow fear, but from those who build hope. It does not deserve to be represented by those who raise walls, but by those who build bridges.”

Bartolo declared his intention to propose, as an MEP, “a revision of the Dublin Convention, to give incoming people the possibility of reaching the countries in which they wish to live. Those who arrive in Italy very often do not wish to remain in our country but move elsewhere. It is necessary to guarantee free circulation within the European Community, in compliance with agreements between Member States.”

9 European elections results by Member State

Netherlands

Source: https://election-results.eu/netherlands/

The European Elections saw a surprise victory for the Dutch PvdA (S&D) party. The elections were widely expected to be a contest between the government party VVD (ALDE) and the new Eurosceptic party FvD who were the big winners of the Dutch senate elections in March. Instead the VVD came second, and FvD a distant fourth tied with GroenLinks (Greens). The unexpected win for the S&D is widely attributed to the popularity of Spitzenkandidat , who fronts the PvdA list.

The only new party making it into the European Parliament is 50+, a party that advocates better conditions for the elderly party for the elderly. Far-left SP (GUE-NGL) and the right-wing populist PVV headed by Geert Wilders both failed to obtain any seats and will not return to the parliament. This is certainly a big hit for Wilders, whose party did very well last time around.

• Voter turnout was slightly up compared to the last EU election, standing at 41.9%, up 4.6 points from 2014.

Frans Timmermans, current First Vice-President of the and Spitzenkandidat

Probably the most remarkable new Dutch MEP is without a doubt Frans Timmermans. The erstwhile member of Dutch parliament and two-time Minister for Foreign Affairs is a well-known figure in Brussels. In his capacity as First Vice- President of the European Commission, he is perhaps most known for his clashes with the Polish and Hungarian government over the deteriorating rule-of-law situation in those countries. However, since he’s also the Spitzenkandidat for the S&D, and widely regarded as a credible contender for the job, it may well be the case that Mr. Timmermans never ends up taking his seat in Parliament.

10 European elections results by Member State

Romania

Source: https://election-results.eu/romania/

Turnout for this voting round was significantly higher than in previous elections for the European Parliament, at 50.98%, and was in fact higher than Romania’s most recent Parliamentary election round in 2016, when the total presence was 39.49 percent. Voting abroad was also significant, with many Romanian expats waiting hours in line to cast their vote. Romania’s pro-European parties inflicted a serious defeat on Romania’s ruling Social Democrats (PSD/S&D). The centre-right National (PNL/EPP) and the centrist USR-PLUS alliance together racked up more than 48% of the vote, in a clear rebuke of the government. The PSD obtained 23.39% of the vote, a sharp drop from the 37.6% they won in 2014. The new coalition, USR+PLUS, placed third and is widely expected to join the new grouping around the ALDE and Macron’s LREM, bolstering their numbers even further.

• Voter turnout was up compared to the last EU election, standing at 51.07%, up 18.6 points from 2014.

Dacian Ciolos, experienced Romanian politician

Former Agriculture Commisioner and later Prime Minister of Romania, Ciolos is heading the pro-EU USR list. The party is widely expected to join the new grouping of ALDE and Macron’s La Republique En Marche, which could make them potentially influential in the kingmaker position this new grouping is expected to play in the Parliament.

11 European elections results by Member State

Spain

Source: https://election-results.eu/spain/

The Spanish Partido Socialista Obrero Español (PSOE) (Spanish Socialist Workers’ Party), a social democratic , returns to win a European election with Josep Borrell as head of the list for the second time (he also headed the list in 2004). The PSOE won 20 seats (seven more than in 2014), which will become 21 if the ends up leaving the EU. The Partido Popular (PP) (People’s Party), which is a liberal- conservative political party, ends just over 20%, with 12 seats (four less) but retains the symbolic leadership of the right ahead of Ciudadanos (Cs), (Citizens), which is a centre to centre-right political party that gets seven seats. The ultra-right VOX enters the European Parliament with 1.3 million votes and three seats. The Catalan nationalists have won six seats with Junts per Catalunya (Together for Catalonia).

• Voter turnout was up compared to the last EU election, standing at 64.3%, up 20.5 points from 2014.

Leopoldo López Gil, father of the opposition leader in Venezuela

The father of the opposition leader in Venezuela, Leopoldo López, won a seat for the Spanish Popular Party (PP) in the European Parliament. Leopoldo López Gil is expected to draw attention in the European Parliament to the social, economic and political crisis that Venezuela is going through, serving as spokesman for both his country and Latin America. The PP ranks second in the European Spanish Elections with 20.09% of the support and 12 deputies. Seat number 12 will be for Leopoldo López Gil, who becomes the first Venezuelan MEP in history.

12 European elections results by Member State

United Kingdom

Source: https://election-results.eu/united-kingdom/

Somewhat expectedly given the ongoing deadlock the EU elections in the UK dealt a devastating blow to both the governing and the main opposition parties. Ms. Theresa May’s Conservatives suffered their worst election result in nearly 200 years, placing 5th overall with only 8,7% of the vote. The Labour Party, whose popularity has also been steadily declining amid the Brexit uncertainty, failed to capitalise on the weak appeal of its main rival and managed to rally just over 14% of the vote. ’s newly formed Brexit Party came out as the biggest winner with nearly a third of the vote, while the openly anti-Brexit Liberal Democrats received 18,5%.

Outgoing Prime Minister Theresa May has expressed disappointment with the election’s outcomes while Labour’s leader Jeremy Corbyn has declared his support for a referendum on the Brexit deal in an attempt to win back some of Labour’s pro-remain supporters. Meanwhile Nigel Farage has argued that his party’s victory should be seen as a signal of the electorate’s preference and has suggested that the party is more involved in the Brexit negotiations going .

Overall, the results of the EU elections in the UK seem to have only deepened the Brexit divide, and with no credible solution in sight, it is not impossible that the newly arriving UK MEPs will hold onto their seats past the November Brexit deadline.

• Voter turnout was slightly up compared to the last EU election, standing at 37%, up 1.4 points from 2014.

Magid Madig, “the coolest politician in the UK”

The Sheffield mayor who has previously called the US President Donald Trump a ‘wasteman’ and banned him from visiting his city has won a seat in the European Parliament. The 29-year-old who has been voted the ‘coolest politician in the UK’, moved to Sheffield from Somalia when he was five and has since become Sheffield’s youngest Lord Mayor as well as the first Green Party councillor to take on the role.

13 Member States’ Party affiliations to European political groups

Member State Parties European Party Affiliations

France

Envie D’europe Écologique Et Sociale (Parti Socialiste) Parti Radical de Gauche (PRG) Party of European Socialists

Renaissance - La République En Marche! (EM) - Mouvement Démocrate (MoDem) - Alliance of Liberals and / Liberal Union des démocrates et indépendants (UDI) / Liberal Democrats for Europe

Les Républicains (LR) / Les Républicains (LR) / Conservative Conservative European People’s Party

Europe Écologie Les Verts (EELV) / Greens

La France Insoumise (FI) / Left-wing Now the People

Europe of Nations and Freedom Rassemblement national (RN) / Right-wing Group

Germany

Christlich Demokratische Union (CDU) / Christian-Democrats Christlich-Soziale Union (CSU) / Christian-Democrats [Bavaria] European People’s Party

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (SPD) / Social-Democrats Party of European Socialists Die Linke / Left-wing Party of European Left

Alliance of Liberals and Freie Demokratische Partei (FDP) / Liberals Democrats for Europe

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Grüne) / Greens Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (ÖDP) / Greens European Green Party

Freie Wähler / Liberal European Democratic Party

Ireland

Fine Gael / Centre-right European People’s Party

Labour / Social Democrats Party of European Socialists

Alliance of Liberals and Fianna Fáil / Centre-right Democrats for Europe Party Sinn Féin / Left-wing nationalism, democratic Luke ‘Ming’ Flanagan / Left-wing No European Affiliation Social Democrats Party / Social democrats

14 Member States Parties affiliations to European political groups

Member State Parties European Party Affiliations

Italy

Partij van de Arbeid (PvdA) / Social Democrats Party of European Socialists Forza Italia (FI) / Centre-right European People’s Party Movement for a Europe of Lega / Right-wing Nations and Freedom

European Conservatives and Fratelli d’Italia – Noi con l’Italia, NcI (FdI–NcI) / Right-wing alliance Reformists Movimento 5 Stelle (Five Star Movement) / Populist Liberi e Uguali (LeU) / Left-wing alliance No European Affiliation

Netherlands

Partij van de Arbeid (PvdA) / Social Democrats Party of European Socialists Democraten 66 (D66) / Social Liberal Alliance of Liberals and Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie (VVD) / Liberal Conservative Democrats for Europe

Christen-Democratisch Appèl (CDA) / Christian Democrats European People’s Party

GroenLinks (GL) / Greens European Green Party

Partij voor de Dieren (PvdD) / Animal rights Euro Animal 7

ChristenUnie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij (CU - SGP) / Christian European Christian Political Conservative coalition Movement Partij voor de Vrijheid (PVV) / Right-wing Forum voor Democratie (FvD) / Right-wing Socialistische Partij (SP) / Left-wing No European affiliation DENK / Left-wing, minority politics 50PLUS (50+) / Pensioners’ interest

Spain

Partido Popular (PP) / Conservatives European People’s Party Partido Socialista Obrero Español (PSOE), electoral coalition with Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC) / Social Democrats Party of European Socialists

Ciudadanos (Cs) / Liberals Alliance of Liberals and Unidos / Now the People Left-wing Democrats for Europe Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya (ERC) / Left-wing Catalan Nationalism VOX / Right-wing Junts per Catalunya (JuntsxCat) / Liberal Catalan Nationalism No European Affiliation Iniciativa Feminista

15 Member States’ Party affiliations to European political groups

Member State Parties European Party Affiliations

Romania

Partidul Social-Democrat (PSD) / Social Democrats Party of European Socialists

Partidul Naţional Liberal (PNL) / Liberal Conservative Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România (RMDSZ - UDMR) / Christian Democrats, Hungarian minority European People’s Party Partidul Mişcarea Populară (PMP) / Liberal Conservative

Alliance of Liberals and Alianţa Liberalilor și Democraţilor (ALDE) / Liberal Democrats in Europe

Pro Romania / Social Democrats, Social Liberal European Democratic Party

Uniunea Naţională pentru Progresul României (UNPR) / Social democracy Uniunea Salvaţi România (USR) - PLUS / Liberal No European affiliation

United Kingdom

Labour / Centre-left Party of European Socialists Alliance of European Conservatives Conservatives and Reformists Alliance of Liberals and Liberal Democracts Democrats for Europe Greens European Green Party Scottish National Party (SNP) / Scottish nationalism and social democracy European Free Alliance Brexit Party - UKIP Not affiliated Change UK European People’s Party

16 Do you want to know more? Get in touch with our EU Elections experts in Brussels

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