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EU Election Results EU Election results 28 May 2019 EU Elections Timeline WC July 8 30 September - Election of 10 October Committee Chairs 28 May and Vice-Chairs Parliamentary hearings of Commissioners designate First meeting of 1 Conference of 20-21 June Presidents (political Nov group laders) European Council 15-18 Jul New Commision decides nominee takes office European Council for Commission top European Parliament dinner to take stock jobs (Presidents of elects the European of EP elections Commission, Council Commission President and ECB) WC 1 July June Election of EP vote of consent on June European the new Commission Parliament + European Council Elected candidates President and formally appoints the negotiate to form VPs Commission political groups for the upcoming Parliament’s 9th term July - September November - December Appointment of MEPs 2-4 July Member States Exchange of views on to EP Committees & propose members multinational priorities, Inaugural plenary Delegatiolns of the Commission Commission Work session of the newly- Programme elected Parliament Appointment of political group coordinators (lead) on Committees The European Parliament’s 9th term will begin on 2 July, when Members of the European Parliament will meet for its first session in Strasbourg, France. MEPs will elect the President, the 14 Vice-Presidents and the five Quaestors of the House and decide on the number and 2 Jul composition of Parliament’s standing and sub-committees - thereby launching the new legislative term. 2 Seats distribution for the new European Parliament (EU28) - Left–right political spectrum Source: https://election-results.eu/ The scramble for a new majority coalition For the first time since 1979, Europe’s centre-right and centre-left political groups will be too small to form a majority in the European Parliament between them. This opens the door to a period of uncertainty as other political groups vie for power within the Parliament, which plays an increasingly important role in the political life of the 28-member European Union with a co-decision role in most policy areas. The result could look more like a national coalition government than the de facto grand coalition that has prevailed in Brussels for decades. Pro-EU parties will still control a substantial majority in the Parliament, but it is too early to say which will have the biggest say. The Socialists, Liberals and Greens - all of which are steadily pro-EU - have vowed to break the conservatives’ recent monopoly on the leadership of the EU institutions. The centre-right European People’s Party (EPP) remains the biggest party in the European Parliament after Sunday’s European election despite a shrinking to 180 seats from 216 seats in the previous Parliament. The centre-left Socialists & Democrats (S&D) group is expected to come in second with 146 seats, down from 187 previously. A new centrist-liberal coalition (ALDE plus Renaissance) led by French President Emmanuel Macron and Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte is predicted to come in third with 109 seats. These elections see a growing “Green wave” in the Parliament with 69 seats for the environmentalist party. The far right, meanwhile, is expected to win 112 seats, with Italian Deputy Prime Minister Matteo Salvini’s Northern League alliance doubling in size versus the previous Parliament. It remains to be seen whether they would join – or be welcome in – the EPP, which has sought to rein in other Eurosceptic EPP political group members including Hungary’s Fidesz Party. 3 Coalition scenarios As no group has a majority by itself, the political groups now have to build a majority coalition. Here are some of the options: EPP – S&D – ALDE&R - GREENS EPP – S&D – ALDE&R Source: https://www.politico.eu/2019-european-elections/ 4 Coalition scenarios EPP – S&D – GREENS Source: https://election-results.eu/tools/majority-calculator/ 5 European elections results by Member State Following the results of the European elections, our team made a selection of EU countries which are the most relevant to our clients. Please find a detailed analysis on the election’s results in France, Germany, Italy, Ireland, the Netherlands, Romania, Spain and the UK. France Source: https://election-results.eu/france/ French President Emmanuel Macron’s party failed to defeat Marine le Pen’s far right National Rally (RN). Her party took first place in the election with 22 seats, while Macron’s Renaissance list won 21 seats. The big surprise of these elections for France was the good performance by the Green party “Europe Ecologie-Les Verts’, which won 12 seats. It then became the third largest French force in the new European Parliament. It was expected that Les Republicains would become the third party. Instead, the party lost 8 of the 16 seats it had previously. La France Insoumise, Melenchon’s far left party, won 6 seats, while le Parti socialiste won only 4 seats, confirming the slow collapse of the party. • Voter turnout was up compared to the last EU election, standing at 50.12%, up 7.7 points from 2014. Nathalie Loiseau, Renaissance’s top candidate One noteworthy new French MEP is Nathalie Loiseau. She was the top candidate for President’s Macron party electoral list. As a member of his government, she was Minister for European Affairs until March 2019, when she began to run as a candidate for the European Parliament. She is in favour of a stronger ecological transition and believes that 40% of the EU budget should be used for this. 6 European elections results by Member State Germany Source: https://election-results.eu/germany/ While the CDU and its CSU (EPP) allies managed to remain the largest German party in Parliament, the party nevertheless lost 7% compared to 2014. The results are even worse for the SPD (S&D), which saw its support shrink to 15.5% and fall behind the rising Green Party (Greens). The results could have significant consequences for the German government, as the pressure on the SPD to quit the coalition arises. Meanwhile, the Greens are riding high, increasing their score to 20.5% and coming in second place. The far- right Alternative for Germany took 11% of the vote. With such results, the Greens will certainly have a more decisive impact in the Parliament during the next term. • Voter turnout was up compared to the last EU election, standing at 61.41%, up 13.31 points from 2014. Katarina Barley, SPD’s top candidate Current German Justice minister and SPD frontrunner Katarina Barley made headlines with her comments regarding tougher legislation on big tech companies, calling on industry giants such as Facebook and Amazon to do more or face fines. The experienced politician, with both German and British citizenship, is planning to strengthen the calls for more stringent legislation regarding data privacy and other digital matters coming from the Parliament in the next legislative mandate. 7 European elections results by Member State Ireland Source: https://election-results.eu/ireland/ On 24 May, 49.30% of Irish citizens cast their votes to send 11 MEPs to the European Parliament. As predicted, current exit polls show Fine Gael – the Centre-Right Irish party (EPP) led by Leo Varadkar, getting 29% of the votes and sending 4 MEPs to the European Parliament. In second place, The Green Party (Greens/EFA) and Independent candidates secured 15% of the votes and 2 MEPs each. The Green Party, in particular, had a strong showing considering that in 2014 it received only 4.9% of the vote. Behind them stand Fianna Fail (ALDE), also with 15% of votes but with only one MEP and Sinn Fein (GUE/NGL), which got 13% of the votes and will send two MEPs. The Labour Party (S&D), Social Democrats (S&D) and other independents will likely not succeed in getting a seat in this European Parliament. • Voter turnout was slightly down compared to the last EU election, standing at 49.3%, down 3.1 points from 2014. Ciaran Cuffe, Green Party candidate The biggest surprise from Ireland is the Green Party candidate Ciaran Cuffe, who is likely to be the first elected to the four-seat Dublin constituency. This signals a growing demand for climate change to be prioritised more by a bigger priority for the government. 8 European elections results by Member State Italy Source: https://election-results.eu/italy/ For the first time ever, the League became the first party from Italy, confirming the nation-wide rise of a regional party that has its roots in the prosperous Northeast. Results on Monday gave the League a resounding 34.33% win, exceeding all expectations. Alongside the usual anti-immigration campaign, Matteo Salvini, Italy’s deputy prime minister, made demographics a key component of his campaign as part of a nativist vision to reverse Italy’s shrinking population and protect Italian identity. The Democratic Party (PD) celebrated a good electoral performance that partly compensated for their terrible result in last year’s general election in Italy. The centre-left PD, which won just 18% in the general election, took 22.7% of the vote, clawing back some votes from the Five Star Movement (M5S). The Democratic Party became the second largest Italian party in the European Parliament, bringing an expected 18 seats to the Progressive Alliance of Socialists and Democrats. • Voter turnout was slightly down compared to the last EU election, standing at 56.10%, down 2.6 points from 2014. Solidarity comes to Brussels: Pietro Bartolo, the doctor from Lampedusa, got elected Amid gains by xenophobic parties in many countries, Pietro Bartolo, a contrarian doctor from Lampedusa and candidate of the Democratic Party, was elected with 135,098 preferences in his electoral district.
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