European Parliament 2019: the Parliament and Europe to Come
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POLICY BRIEF 06 NOVEMBER 2018 #ELECTIONS 2019 EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT 2019: THE PARLIAMENT AND EUROPE TO COME This paper is the result of a Summary In total, even if a majority hostile to European working group chaired by integration, or capable of tweaking the current PASCAL LAMY, President emer- The European Parliament (EP) elected on 26 programme, is less plausible than suggested, itus of the Jacques Delors May 2019 will not likely resemble the current majorities will be harder to build in future, and Institute, with CHRISTINE one. These elections will occur in a context of inter-institutional relations could change. VERGER, Advisor at the internal tensions within the European Union, As such, the “centre” group has an impor- Jacques Delors Institute act- turbulence on the international stage, migra- tant role to play, regardless of the choices ing as rapporteur, and com- tion-related and social challenges, spreading made by La République en Marche, as do the posed of PERVENCHE BERÈS, fears, identitarian flare-ups, and populism. All Greens, who are expected to gain new seats Member of the European these phenomena could lend a significantly and be more influential than in the past. Parliament, JEAN-LOUIS more European, and less national tone to the BOURLANGES, Member of the campaign than usual. Re-adjustments, or even a re-shuffle based French Parliament, MONICA Is extremism on the rise? around a charniere group, could have sub- FRASSONI, Co-President stantial consequences on the appointment A rise in extremism is likely, but limited to the of a European political of the new European Commission President, Parliament level: only major countries send party, VALENTIN KREILINGER, who is elected by the European Parliament sizeable quotas of MEPs, and the departure researcher at the Jacques and will, as a result, become the leader of a of British MEPs will shrink the size of the Delors Institut–Berlin, ALAIN parliamentary coalition which must be built. nationalist camp. Right-of-traditional-right LAMASSOURE, Member of groups already represent 20% of the current Habitually, European elections are first and the European Parliament, Parliament, and will likely remain divided. foremost national elections, and attract ALESSIA MOSCA, Member of low voter turn-outs (49.5% in 1999, 42.6% the European Parliament, A significant reconfiguration of the radical in 2014). The outcome may differ in 2019, and GENEVIÈVE PONS, Director left is not expected, though it could win a few however. of the Brussels office of the more seats. Jacques Delors Institute. Various signs, be they political stances, or Internal troubles in the two major traditional media opinions, indicate that these elections parties, the EPP (European People’s Party), could occur under different auspices and in and the S&D (Socialists and Social-Demo- another context than previous ones: tensions crats), could weaken them to the point of los- within the European Union, turbulence on the ing their current 55% majority. international stage, migratory issues, social conflict, spreading fears, identitarian flare- ups and populism. All of which surpass the national framework. 1 ▪ 10 Currently, stable, centre-right majorities form 1 ▪ A more “European” election? on economic issues, and stable centre-left The 2009 Lisbon Treaty has given the Europe- majorities form on social issues, with varia- an Parliament greater legislative powers and ble geometry alliances between the two big- growing political clout. In addition to its legis- gest groups and the Liberals and Greens, and lative role, the Parliament elects the Commis- sometimes even the GUE. sion and its President (and can dismiss them as well). It auditions candidates for all lead- These majorities will be harder to negotiate and ership positions in Europe, including the Ex- more complicated to build in the future; inter-in- ecutive Board of the European Central Bank. stitutional relations could change as a result. It also ratifies international treaties such as the Brexit deal. Its role as a political sound- ing board is evident. The composition of the 3 ▪ An increase in extremes and nation- future Parliament, resulting from elections in alist tendencies? 27 Member States, will have decisive conse- This is likely, and the parties concerned, quences on the future functioning of the Un- which have successfully relied on proportion- ion and its policy stances. al voting in the past, take European elections very seriously. This phenomenon will likely be limited to the European Parliament-level for 2 ▪ The likely emergence of new political several reasons, however. balances Firstly, only the most populated countries Trends observed over the course of the cur- send large numbers of MEPs: Germany (96), rent term, combined with current survey re- France (74 in 2014, 79 in 2019), Italy (73 in sults, suggest the possible emergence of sev- 2014, 76 in 2019) and Spain (54 in 2014, 59 eral shifts, including the departure of British in 2019). In comparison, Hungary has just 21 MPs, which will decrease the total number of MEPs in total. members from 751 to 705, and the re-adjust- Secondly, the departure of British MEPs from ed number of MPs from certain countries to the conservative and UKIP parties will weak- correct imbalances and account for demo- en the nationalist camp, even if this departure graphic changes. A simple majority will there- will be amply offset by the arrival of a large fore require 353 votes. number of Lega Nord MPs from Italy (current- It is often suggested that a Eurosceptic, or ly 28 seats), as well as Alternative for Germa- even Europhobic, majority could emerge ny (AfD) MPs from Germany (15 seats). which would contribute to paralysing the Un- Right-of-traditional-right parties are currently di- ion – in numerous domains at least. Though vided into three political groups1: ECR (the third this scenario is unlikely at this stage, other re- biggest Parliamentary group, which includes sults could be equally worrying for the future the soon-to-disappear British conservatives of European integration. and the Polish Law and Justice (PIS) party, One possibility is an accentuation of trou- with 71 members), the EFDD (which includes bles within the two major traditional political the British UKIP party and the Five Star Move- parties, the EPP and the S&D, which would ment, currently with 45 members), and the ENF weaken them to the point of losing their cur- (which includes Marine Le Pen’s National Rally rent 55% majority and deprive them of the party and Matteo Salvini’s Lega party, with 35 ability to single-handedly implement a tradi- seats, making it the smallest group in the EP). tional policy of ongoing compromise (that is According to current and available estimates, challenged internally by some). This policy ENF could progress from 35 to 59 members, concerns internal parliamentary matters and EFDD from 45 to 53, and ECR could slip from approaches to more political issues. 71 to 48, for a total of 160 members across the three groups, up from 151. 1. See the appendix for an explanatory note on the European Parliamentary groups. 2 ▪ 10 In total, then, the rise would be limited in rela- Russia on the other, more generally, the divi- tion to the critical mass embodied by the fur- sion between eastern and western rights is thest right-wing parties since 2014, given that less clear: Orbán is generally pro-Putin, while some other populist parties belong to other the Slovaks (influenced by SNS, a member of groups (Orbán’s party in the EPP or France In- the government coalition), the Czechs (the soumise in the GUE). president Milos Zeman), the Bulgarians and Romanians are ambiguous to say the least. Also, it is not likely that these political parties Another example, of course, are the orthodox will work together or form a coherent unit. candidate countries of Serbia, Montenegro All signs point to these parties having more and Macedonia. Only the Polish and the Balts differences than similarities. They could, how- continue to employ a categorically anti-Rus- ever, form an ‘against’ bloc, which has some- sian political discourse (despite the very re- times obliged other groups to form a coalition cent victory in Latvia’s legislative elections of since 2014. Harmony, a pro-Russian party). Even within the ECR, a group which currently All these countries have conflicting interests includes 19 nationalities and is expected to as a result. survive despite the departure of British mem- bers, a more liberal right composed of Belgian As Denis McShane, a former minister of Eu- and Dutch members co-exists with a more ropean Affairs from the UK, recently wrote in authoritarian right composed of the Polish Politico, the Austrian chancellor announced PIS, which would become the biggest dele- a Vienna-Rome axis, but both countries dis- gation. No one in this group is anti-Union, but agree on how to manage the migratory situa- all favour a ‘confederalist’ right over a federal tion: Hungary, Poland, Bulgaria and the Czech approach. Divisions do exist within the group Republic derive 4% of their GDP from EU on important topics such as the European transfers and benefit from the free movement budget (an East/West split). of workers. None wish to leave the European Union or NATO. Concerning the EFDD, the Sweden Democrats party has left the group to join the ECR. The In this context, former American presidential position of the very diverse Five Star Move- advisor Steve Bannon has created a foun- ment is uncertain, as is that of the AfD. Not dation in Brussels called The Movement, to able to find similar partners and unwelcome federate nationalist and populist right-wing in other more left-wing groups, the Five Star parties.