ANALYSIS Riga The 2019 European Parliament elections in the Baltic states DR DAUNIS AUERS, UNIVERSITY OF LATVIA May 2019 The three Baltic states showed a mixed profi le in the European Parliament elections. While Estonia and Lithuania were largely occupied with domestic events, Latvia expe- rienced a long, high-profi le campaign. At the same time all three countries showed that the European and the national level are closely interlinked and do interplay with each other. Due to a preferential voting logic in a proportional representation system all estab- lished political parties put forward lists containing candidates with either extensive political experience, current MEPs or high-profi le personalities. In this way they bene- fi ted from a pronounced experience/competence versus fresh-faces/innovation di- vide. The political cleavages present in many older Western European democracies were largely absent. The campaigning focused on economy, immigration and security is- sues as well as relations with Russia. With this the mainstream parties were the big- gest winners in the region, with the centrist European Peoples Party (EPP), the Social- ists and Democrats (S&D) and The Alliance of Liberals and Democrats for Europe (ALDE) winning 17 of the 25 seats in the region. The Greens/European Free Alliance (G/EFA) and the European Conservatives and reformists (ECR) each won three seats. Like in prior EP-elections rightwing populist and Eurosceptic parties did not manage to achieve a decisive electoral turnout but the issue may potentially grow with more vigour in the years to come. DAUNIS AUERS | THE 2019 EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT ELECTIONS IN THE BALTIC STATES Riga Content Introduction . 3 1. Parties and candidates . 4 2. Issues and Policies . 9 3. Euroscepticism and National Populism . 10 4. Results and impact . 12 2 DAUNIS AUERS | THE 2019 EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT ELECTIONS IN THE BALTIC STATES Riga Introduction politicians and the public were more concerned with debating who would follow President Da- The 25-26 May 2019 European Parliament elec- lia Grybauskaitė, who had held the office for a tions were the fourth in the Baltic states since ac- decade, than debating Lithuania’s place in the cession to the European Union fi fteen years ago. European Parliament. Estonia was similarly still As was the case in the European Union (EU) as dealing with the political fallout from an unex- a whole, turnout increased in all three states, al- pected and controversial new three-party coali- though only Lithuania saw a turnout above the EU tion government that saw the national populist average and this was largely down to the Europe- Conservative People’s Party of Estonia (EKRE) an poll coinciding with the second round of voting enter government office for the first time. Only on the next Lithuanian president. in Latvia did the European Parliament election receive a similar depth of coverage and public European Parliament elections are broadly un- interest to previous years. derstood as “second order elections” in nation- al electoral cycles. Voters use the election as The elections were framed by a generally positive a forum to express their opinions on national economic outlook. In Spring 2019 unemployment parties, politicians and policy issues rather than in the Baltic states was low (7.6% in Latvia, 5.8% to vote on European-level issues or policy alter- in Lithuania and just 4.2% in Estonia1) and annual natives. GDP was forecast to grow briskly at rates of 2.8% in Estonia, 3.1% in Latvia and 2.7% in Lithuania This was certainly the case with the May 2019 following even higher rates of growth in 2018.2 European Parliament elections in the Baltic This economic optimism was also refl ected in states, which followed Estonia’s March 2019 generally positive attitudes to the EU. Eurostat parliamentary vote as well as Lithuania’s munic- data revealed that Lithuania and Estonia were the ipal elections in March and the first and second second and fourth most positive states in seeing round of presidential voting in May (with the EU membership as a “good thing” while all three second round taking place on the same day as states were above the EU27 average in believing the European Parliament election). While having the presidential vote coincided with the Euro- pean Parliament elections allowed Lithuania to 1. Eurostat. 2019. Unemployment rates, seasonally adjusted, March 2019. https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php/ avoid the ignominy of having a catastrophically Unemployment_statistics low turnout – as was the case in 2009 when just 2. GDP in 2018 grew by 3.9% in Estonia, 4.8% in Latvia and 3.4% in 21% of the electorate voted which was second Lithuania. European Commission. May 2019. European Economic Forecast Spring 2019. https://ec.europa.eu/info/sites/info/files/ lowest in the EU – it did mean that journalists, economy-fi nance/ip102_en.pdf Table 1. European Parliament electoral rules in the Baltic States Estonia Latvia Lithuania Minimum age of candidates 21 21 21 Electoral threshold (%) None 5% 5% Election day Sunday 26 May Saturday 25 May Sunday 26 May Number of MEPs (after Brexit) 6 (7) 8 (8) 11 (11) Voting system Preferential PR Preferential PR Preferential PR Formula for seat allocation D’Hondt Sainte-Laguë Hare quota Source: Central Election Committees in Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania 3 DAUNIS AUERS | THE 2019 EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT ELECTIONS IN THE BALTIC STATES Riga Table 2. Attitudes to the European Union. Baltic states and EU27 average Estonia Latvia Lithuania EU27 Generally speaking, do you think that (our country’s) membership of the EU is a good thing? 74% 54% 71% 61% (% agree) Taking everything into account, would you say that (our country) has on balance benefi tted from 88% 72% 90% 68% being a member of the EU (% agree) Would you personally like to see the European Parliament play a more important or less 34% 56% 66% 54% important role? (% more important) My voice counts in the EU. (% agree) 22% 27% 32% 51% Our country’s voice counts in the EU (% agree) 58% 50% 57% 63% Source: Eurobarometer 91.1 of the European Parliament (2019) that their countries had benefi tted from EU mem- tered in Estonia for the 2019 election, including bership (see Table 2). Indeed, more than half of Raimond Kaljulaid, President Kersti Kaljulaid’s all Latvians and Lithuanians favoured giving the brother. He had left the Estonian Centre Party (EK) European parliament a greater role. While all just weeks after being elected to parliament in three states are below the EU27 average in terms protest at the new government coalition formed of agreeing that their personal or national voices with the national populist Estonian Conservative count in the EU, this may well refl ect the reality People’s Party (EKRE). In 2015 Lithuania created of being small states rather than being a sign of a form of public election committee that allows Euroscepticism. Indeed, only one out of the twen- groups of citizens to run for offi ce without hav- ty-fi ve European Parliament seats contested in ing to join or create new political parties. They do, the Baltic states in 2019 was won by an openly however, need to collect the signatures of 10,000 Eurosceptic party. citizens in order to run. Five such public election committees ran for the European Parliament, in- cluding one led by the impeached ex-president 1. Parties and candidates and serving MEP, Rolandas Paksas and another named the “Train of Aušra Maldeikienė”, formed A total of 41 parties, alliances, electoral commit- by an independent deputy in the Lithuanian par- tees and individual candidates were registered liament. to compete in the election (see Table 3). Political parties have the right to submit candidate lists in European elections in the region have tended to all three Baltic states. Additionally, in Latvia and be quite personalised with the character of can- Lithuania parties can also form electoral allianc- didates being a key campaigning element. There es and present joint lists of candidates. Estoni- are three major reasons for this. First, all three an electoral law allows individual candidates to Baltic states utilise preferential voting proportion- stand for election. Indeed, in both 2009 and 2014 al representation systems in single national con- Indrek Tarand, a radio and television personality, stituencies in European Parliament elections. This was elected to the European Parliament with a open-list system gives voters the opportunity to personal mandate. In the 2019 election Tarand rank candidates according to their own personal stood on the Estonian Social Democratic Party’s preference and tends to encourage active individ- (SDE) list. Five individual candidates were regis- ual campaigning. Second, a MEP’s remuneration 4 DAUNIS AUERS | THE 2019 EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT ELECTIONS IN THE BALTIC STATES Riga Table 3. Political parties, alliances, election committee and individual candidates standing for election to the European Parliament in the Baltic states in 2019 Estonia Latvia Lithuania Homeland Union – Lithuanian Estonian Reform Party (ERP) New Unity (JV) Social Democrats (TS-LKD) Social Democratic Party of Estonian Centre Party (EK) National Alliance (NA) Lithuania (LSDP) Social Democratic party Liberals Movement of the Isamaa Harmony (SDPS) Republic of Lithuania (LRLS) Estonian Social Democratic Green/Farmers Union (ZZS) Order and Justice (TT) Party (SDE) Estonian Conservative People’s Latvia’s Russian Union (LKS) Labour party (DP) Party (EKRE) Lithuanian Peasant and Green Estonian Green Party