Estonia by Vello Pettai and Martin Mölder
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Estonia by Vello Pettai and Martin Mölder Capital: Tallinn Population: 1.3 million GNI/capita, PPP: US$19,120 Source: The data above was provided by The World Bank, World Development Indicators 2011. Nations in Transit Ratings and Averaged Scores 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Electoral Process 1.75 1.75 1.50 1.50 1.50 1.50 1.50 1.50 1.75 1.75 Civil Society 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00 1.75 1.75 1.75 1.75 Independent Media 1.75 1.75 1.50 1.50 1.50 1.50 1.50 1.50 1.50 1.50 Governance* 2.25 2.25 2.25 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a National Democratic Governance n/a n/a n/a 2.25 2.25 2.25 2.25 2.25 2.25 2.25 Local Democratic Governance n/a n/a n/a 2.50 2.50 2.50 2.50 2.50 2.50 2.50 Judicial Framework and Independence 1.75 1.75 1.75 1.50 1.50 1.50 1.50 1.50 1.50 1.50 Corruption 2.50 2.50 2.50 2.50 2.50 2.50 2.50 2.50 2.50 2.25 Democracy Score 2.00 2.00 1.92 1.96 1.96 1.96 1.93 1.93 1.96 1.93 * Starting with the 2005 edition, Freedom House introduced separate analysis and ratings for national democratic governance and local democratic governance to provide readers with more detailed and nuanced analysis of these two important subjects. NOTE: The ratings reflect the consensus of Freedom House, its academic advisers, and the author(s) of this report. The opinions expressed in this report are those of the author(s). The ratings are based on a scale of 1 to 7, with 1 representing the highest level of democratic progress and 7 the lowest. The Democracy Score is an average of ratings for the categories tracked in a given year. 204 Nations in Transit 2011 Executive Summary ince regaining independence in 1991, Estonia has vigorously pursued integration with all Western political and economic structures, joining both SNATO and the European Union in 2004. In 2010, the country passed another critical milestone, receiving permission to adopt the euro as its official currency on January 1, 2011. Estonia will be the first, post-Soviet republic to join the eurozone. Prime Minister Andrus Ansip, already Estonia’s longest serving leader, prepared to set another record in 2010 as the first Estonian premier to complete a full term in office. His performance amid the recent severe economic and financial crisis significantly increased support for his liberal Reform Party, while support for the Greens and the People’s Union declined. As a result, parliamentary elections set for March 2011 may well result in a parliament of just four political parties—two from the right (the Reform Party and the conservative Pro Patria and Res Publica Union), and two from the left (the Center Party and the Social Democratic Party). Because the center-right has dominated Estonian politics since the early 1990s, the country has maintained relatively tight fiscal and pro-market economic policies. This saved Estonia from a complete collapse during the 2008–09 global financial crisis, as for a while it was able to draw on financial reserves built up during the boom years. However, its laissez-faire approach also allowed a significant real estate bubble to develop and burst, leaving many people struggling to make ends meet. The fact that Estonia has never strategically guided its economic growth meant that it was in a weaker position to chart a new direction for the economy once growth started to resume in 2010. Notably, the country’s low levels of corruption have helped facilitate economic growth. Civil society in Estonia has also grown stronger over the last decade, with a number of important framework documents and funding schemes put in place. Nevertheless, serious divides remain in the country between ethnic Estonians and Russian speakers. The latter (numbering roughly 30 percent of the population) are largely a legacy of the Soviet era, when hundreds of thousands of Russians migrated to Estonia. However, after 1991 most of these individuals were denied automatic citizenship in the restored Estonian state, and they have faced considerable challenges in learning the language as well as integrating more broadly into the new Estonian society. Decreased government attention in this realm over the last few years has complicated the issue. National Democratic Governance. Through the defection of several members of parliament from the collapsed People’s Union, Prime Minister Ansip’s center- right coalition gained a de facto majority, remaining firmly in control during 2010. Through continued firm fiscal and economic policies, Estonia was also able to join Estonia 205 the Organization of Economic Co-operation and Development and complete preparations for introducing the euro in January 2011. In other areas, however, Ansip undertook few domestic initiatives during the year. Estonia’s national democratic governance rating remains unchanged at 2.25. Electoral Process. Estonia’s political parties spent 2010 gearing up for the parliamentary elections due in March 2011. While the liberal Reform Party maintained high marks in public opinion polls due to the prime minister’s perceived success in dealing with the economic crisis, the leftist Center Party worked to increase its stronghold in the capital. The Social Democrat Party, People’s Union, and Greens all struggled with leadership crises, raising questions as to how each would fare in the upcoming elections. Parliament passed changes to legislation concerning European and presidential elections, and the Supreme Court ruled that Estonia’s special ban on outdoor campaign advertising before elections was not unconstitutional. Estonia’s electoral process rating remains unchanged at 1.75. Civil Society. Estonia’s main civil society support organization, the National Foundation of Civil Society, entered its second year of operations, distributing roughly 20 million kroons (US$1.8 million) in project funding for dozens of NGOs and a network of regional civil society development centers. The foundation has become a cornerstone for providing both public and private money for civic activities, helping to strengthen the underlying framework of the third sector. Nevertheless, a 2010 study of Estonian civil society showed that many organizations remain weak and the number of people involved with civic groups has declined slightly. Against the backdrop of these positive and negative changes, Estonia’s civil society rating remains unchanged at 1.75. Independent Media. In 2010 the Ministry of Justice introduced a draft law obliging journalists to reveal their sources if requested by the authorities, and imposing preliminary fines on media outlets accused of libel or slander. In protest, Estonia’s major newspapers ran blank pages in their publications in mid-March, and eventually opposition to the bill forced the government to rescind some of the more contested provisions. A less controversial version of the amendments was approved at the end of November, though the preemptive fines against media outlets were not removed. Owing to the general success of media protests in blocking the most controversial amendments to media legislation, Estonia’s independent media rating remains unchanged at 1.50. Local Democratic Governance. Estonia’s economic crisis put a severe strain on relations between the country’s national and local governments, especially after parliament allowed the state to take a greater share of personal income tax revenue from municipalities in order to balance the national budget. As the most powerful local government in Estonia, the capital Tallinn took the lead in challenging these measures in the courts as well as seeking alternative taxation possibilities. However, 206 Nations in Transit 2011 these efforts were stymied by the national governing coalition, which hastily amended legislation in parliament to block the capital’s counter moves. The conflict soon took on a party-politics dimension, though questions of local government autonomy were also at stake. Despite the national-local tug-of-war over income tax revenues, Estonia’s local democratic governance rating remains unchanged at 2.50. Judicial Framework and Independence. After years of debate and discussion, a high-level working group headed by the chief justice of the Supreme Court presented a plan for large-scale reform of Estonia’s court system. However, when parliament began legislating the new Courts Act in January, it immediately came under fire from not only the opposition but also twelve of the chief justice’s own colleagues on the Supreme Court. Estonia’s judicial framework and independence rating remains unchanged at 1.50. Corruption. Estonia reached a milestone in its anticorruption efforts in May when the Supreme Court upheld the bribery conviction against former environment minister and leader of the People’s Union party, Villu Reiljan. Although Reiljan would go on to appeal his conviction before the European Court of Human Rights, the Supreme Court ruling showed that even high-level political figures are not immune to prosecution. Meanwhile, a new large-scale survey of corruption in Estonia showed that public awareness of the issue had grown and the readiness to pay bribes had decreased. Owing to these positive developments, Estonia’s corruption rating improves from 2.50 to 2.25. Outlook for 2011. On January 1, 2011, Estonia adopted the euro as its national currency, marking the achievement of all major goals the country had set itself since regaining independence in 1991. As a result, Prime Minister Andrus Ansip’s Reform Party is expected to do well in the upcoming parliamentary elections in March, barring any unexpected problems with the currency switch, such as sudden inflation.