Re-Analysis of 1946 to 1950 Atlantic Hurricane Seasons Completed

Total Page：16

File Type：pdf, Size：1020Kb

RE-ANALYSIS OF 1946 TO 1950 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASONS COMPLETED A complete re-analysis of the Atlantic hurricane database (HURDAT) was conducted for the 1946 to 1950 seasons. 1946 to 1950 was an active period for hurricanes with 13 striking the continental United States, whereas an average five year span would have about nine U.S. hurricane impacts. Five of the 13 were major hurricane status – Category 3, 4, or 5 on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale – at U.S. landfall and all five struck Florida. These was a Category 4 hurricane in Fort Lauderdale in 1947, a Category 4 hurricane in Everglades City in 1948, a Category 4 hurricane in Lake Worth in 1949, Category 3 Hurricane Easy in Cedar Key in 1950, and Category 4 Hurricane King in Miami in 1950. Of these, King as well as the 1948 and 1949 hurricanes were upgraded from a Category 3 to a Category 4 based upon the reanalysis. Having five major hurricanes making landfall in Florida is a record for a five year period, equaled only by the early 2000s. In addition, nine new tropical storms were discovered and added into the database for this five year period. Revisions to the hurricane database were accomplished by obtaining the original observations collected – mainly by ships, weather stations, and the early Hurricane Hunter Navy and Army Air Force aircraft reconnaissance planes – and assessing the storms based upon our understanding of hurricanes today. The reanalysis also allowed “discovering” of tropical storms and hurricanes that occurred, but were not yet officially recognized as such in the official records. Andrew Hagen, Donna Sakoskie, Daniel Gladstein, Sandy Delgado, Astryd Rodriguez, Chris Landsea and the NHC Best Track Change Committee all made substantial contributions toward the reanalysis of these hurricane seasons. This research is supported in part by the NOAA Climate Program Office. NOAA Hurricane Re-analysis Project: http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/data_sub/re_anal.html Contact: [email protected] March 25, 2014 .

Copy Link

Recommended publications

NOAA Technical Memorandum NWS HYDR0-20 STORM TIDE
NOAA Technical Memorandum NWS HYDR0-20 STORM TIDE FREQUENCY ANALYSIS FOR THE GULF COAST OF FLORIDA FROM CAPE SAN BLAS TO ST. PETERSBURG BEACH Francis P. Ho and Robert J. Tracey Office of Hydrology Silver Spring, Md. April 1975 UNITED STATES /NATIONAL OCEANIC AND / National Weather DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION Service Frederick B. Dent, Secretar1 Robert M. White, Administrator George P, Cressman, Director CONTENTS 1. Introduction. • • • • • • • 1 1.1 Objective and scope •• 1 1.2 Authorization •• 1 1.3 Study method •• 2 2. Summary of historical hurricanes •• 2 2.1 Hurricane tracks 2 2.2 Historical notes 3 3. Climatology of hurricane characteristics. 8 3.1 Frequency of hurricane tracks •••. 8 3.2 Probability distribution of hurricane intensity. 8 3.3 Probability distribution of radius of maximum winds. 9 3.4 Probability distribution of speed and direction of forward motion • . • • • • • • • • 9 4. Hurricane surge • • • • 9 4.1 Surge model ••• 9 4.2 Shoaling factor •• 10 5. Tide frequency analysis by joint probability method • 10 5.1 The joint probability method • 10 5.2 Astronomical tides •••••• 11 5.2.1 Reference datum •.•••• 11 Table 1. Tropical storm parameters - Clearwater, Fla 12 Table 2. Tropical storm parameters - Bayport, Fla •• 13 Table 3. Tropical storm parameters - Cedar Key, Fla. 14 Table 4. Tropical storm parameters- Rock ·Islands, Fla .. 15 Table 5. Tropical storm parameters - Carrabelle, Fla • 16 Table 6. Tropical storm parameters - Apalachicola, Fla 17 5.2.2 Astronomical tide • • • •.• 19 5.3 Prestorm water level ••••••. 19 5.4 Tide frequencies • • • • . • ••• 19 5.5 Adjustment along coast ••••••.•••.•••. 19 5.6 Comparison of frequency curves with observed tides and high-water marks • • • • • • • • • • • .
[Show full text]
Florida's Water Resources1
FE757 Florida’s Water Resources1 Tatiana Borisova and Tara Wade2 Introduction: Why Water Resources Are Important “Water is the lifeblood of our bodies, our economy, our nation and our well-being” (Stephen Lee Johnson, Head of EPA under G.W. Bush Administration). This quote sums up the importance of water resources. We use water for drinking, gardening, and other household uses, in agriculture (e.g., for irrigation), and in energy production and industrial processes (e.g., for cooling in thermoelectric power generation). Clean and plentiful water resources are also important for our recreational activities (e.g., boating, swimming, or fishing). Water also Figure 1. In November, manatees migrate to warmer coastal waters, sustains wildlife (such as manatees) and is an integral part such as Crystal River on the west coast of Florida (Source: UF/IFAS/ICS) of Florida’s environment (Figure 1). The use of water is increasing along with Florida’s of Florida’s water resources is a first step toward optimizing population. Floridians rely on underground freshwater current freshwater supply use and ensuring adequate water reserves, called aquifers, to supply our diverse water needs resources in the future. (USGS 2016a). In some Florida regions, this underground freshwater reserve can no longer sustain the growing water demands of the population, while also feeding Florida’s riv- Hydrologic Cycle: Where Water ers, springs, and lakes. With periodic droughts, shortages of Originates and Where It Goes freshwater may occur. Drought and water shortages in the Toni Morrison, an American novelist, once said that “all state have caused urban planners and policy makers to pay water has a perfect memory and is forever trying to get closer attention to water use, water supply development, back to where it was.” Indeed, water is constantly moving.
[Show full text]
Florida Hurricanes and Tropical Storms
FLORIDA HURRICANES AND TROPICAL STORMS 1871-1995: An Historical Survey Fred Doehring, Iver W. Duedall, and John M. Williams '+wcCopy~~ I~BN 0-912747-08-0 Florida SeaGrant College is supported by award of the Office of Sea Grant, NationalOceanic and Atmospheric Administration, U.S. Department of Commerce,grant number NA 36RG-0070, under provisions of the NationalSea Grant College and Programs Act of 1966. This information is published by the Sea Grant Extension Program which functionsas a coinponentof the Florida Cooperative Extension Service, John T. Woeste, Dean, in conducting Cooperative Extensionwork in Agriculture, Home Economics, and Marine Sciences,State of Florida, U.S. Departmentof Agriculture, U.S. Departmentof Commerce, and Boards of County Commissioners, cooperating.Printed and distributed in furtherance af the Actsof Congressof May 8 andJune 14, 1914.The Florida Sea Grant Collegeis an Equal Opportunity-AffirmativeAction employer authorizedto provide research, educational information and other servicesonly to individuals and institutions that function without regardto race,color, sex, age,handicap or nationalorigin. Coverphoto: Hank Brandli & Rob Downey LOANCOPY ONLY Florida Hurricanes and Tropical Storms 1871-1995: An Historical survey Fred Doehring, Iver W. Duedall, and John M. Williams Division of Marine and Environmental Systems, Florida Institute of Technology Melbourne, FL 32901 Technical Paper - 71 June 1994 $5.00 Copies may be obtained from: Florida Sea Grant College Program University of Florida Building 803 P.O. Box 110409 Gainesville, FL 32611-0409 904-392-2801 II Our friend andcolleague, Fred Doehringpictured below, died on January 5, 1993, before this manuscript was completed. Until his death, Fred had spent the last 18 months painstakingly researchingdata for this book.
[Show full text]
Vulnerability of the Suncoast Connector Toll Road Study Area to Future Storms and Sea Level Rise
Vulnerability of the Suncoast Connector Toll Road Study Area to Future Storms and Sea Level Rise Michael I. Volk, Belinda B. Nettles, Thomas S. Hoctor University of Florida April, 2020 Suncoast Connector Coastal Vulnerability Assessment 2 Abstract The Multi-use Corridors of Regional Economic Significance Program (M-CORES) authorizes the design and construction of three new toll road corridors through portions of Florida, including the proposed Suncoast Connector. This paper assesses the potential vulnerability of the Suncoast Connector study area and specifically the U.S. 19/U.S. 27/U.S. 98 corridor to coastal hazards including storms and sea level rise. The results of this analysis indicate that the study area and existing U.S. 19/U.S. 27/U.S. 98 corridor are not only currently at risk from flooding and coastal storms, but that sea level rise and climate change will significantly exacerbate these risks in the future. Findings include that at least 30 percent of the study area is already at risk from a Category 5 storm surge, with sea level rise projected to increase that risk even further. This region also provides one of the best opportunities for coastal biodiversity to functionally respond to increasing sea level rise, but a new major highway corridor along with the additional development that it facilitates will complicate biodiversity conservation and resiliency efforts. With these concerns in mind, it is critical to ensure that investment in new infrastructure, if pursued within the study area, is strategic and located in areas least vulnerable to impacts and repeat loss and least likely to conflict with efforts for facilitating the adaptation of regional natural systems to sea level rise and other related impacts.
[Show full text]
P1.28 a Digital Archive of Significant Florida Weather Events to Improve the Public’S Response to Future Warnings
P1.28 A Digital Archive of Significant Florida Weather Events to Improve the Public’s Response to Future Warnings Charles H. Paxton1,2, Jennifer M. Collins2, Kortnie J. Pugh1,2,3, and Jennifer L. Colson1 1. National Weather Service, Tampa Bay Florida 2. University of South Florida, Tampa, FL 3. National Marine Fisheries Service, St. Petersburg, FL I. Introduction other artifacts. These resources are of immense The past is our guide, our manual, it helps value not only to NOAA but also the American illuminate actions for the future. Through a NOAA people their true owners. Two frail leather-bound Preserve America Initiative grant obtained in U.S. Weather Bureau means books dating back to collaboration between the NWS (Tampa Bay 1890 needed rebinding. The office also has a region) and the University of South Florida (USF) wealth of other record books, older original two students were hired by NMFS Regional office weather maps depicting major events, news to work at the Tampa Bay Area NWS to document articles, and photos of major past events. historic weather events (Fig 1) and preserve weather relics. In an effort to save items of historical content, President Bush through his Preserve America executive order (E.O. 13287) called on NOAA and other federal agencies to inventory, preserve, and showcase federally- managed historic, cultural, or "heritage" resources and foster tourism in partnership with local communities. Fig. 2. Scanned weather photos. Many old weather artifacts from the past have been photographed and existing photographs of past weather events were scanned too (Fig. 2). When in electronic form, the pages of the books make accessible viewing on the Internet.
[Show full text]
Suncoast Weather Observer
Suncoast Weather Observer Summer 2010 Issue 1, Volume 15 Inside This Issue... NWS Forecasters Help Australia with Fire Weather Support Visibility Sensors to Shed Light for Marine Vessels Forecaster Spends a Month at the Southern Region Operations Center in Texas Busy 2010 So Far for Spanish Outreach CQ’s the Word! TARC and CERT Clubs Join NWS Outreach Efforts Decision Support Services Preparing the Public for the 2010 Hurricane Season Hurricane Climatology 2010 Hurricane Outlook SPECIAL FEATURE: So What Has Happened to the Summer Thunderstorms That You Can Usually Set Your Watch By? NWS Forecasters Help Australia with Fire Weather Support By: Rick Davis NWS TBW senior meteorologist and Incident Meteorologist (IMET) Rick Davis worked with the Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) in Melbourne, providing fire weather decision support services, to the State of Victoria, for the month of April 2010. He was part of a small group of NWS forecasters to do so during their active fire season. Typically, El Niño produces warmer and drier than normal summer conditions for Southeast Australia, and this was generally true this year as well. In Melbourne, a record number of days above 20 C (68 F) was set at 123 consecutive days ending April 11th, smashing the previous record, which helped make this the warmest summer on record, while rainfall was generally near normal. Fire Danger Ratings varied through the month but usually ranged from high to very high, then a cold weather outbreak brought cooler and more moist conditions with scattered rain for much of the state, reducing the fire danger ratings at the end of the month.
[Show full text]
Probable Maximum Precipitation East of the 105Th Meridian for Areas from 10 to 1,000 Square Miles and Durations of 6, 12, 24, and 48 Hours
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL REPORT NO. 41 Probable Maximum and TYA Precipitation over the Tennessee River Basin above Chattanooga u.s. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE WEATHER BUREAU Washington June 1965 HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL REPORTS (Nos. 6-22 NUlnbered Retroactively) *No. 1. Maximum possible precipitation over the Ompompanoosuc Basin above Union Village, Vt. 1943. *No. 2. Maximum possible precipitation over the Ohio River Basin above Pittsburgh, Pa. 1942. *No. 3. Maximum possible precipitation over the Sacramento Basin of California. 1943. *No. 4. Maximum possible precipitation over the Panama Canal Basin. 1943. *No. 5. Thunderstorm rainfall. 1947. *No. 6. A preliminary report on th,e probable occurrence of excessive precipitation over Fort Supply Basin, Okla. 1938. *No. 7. Worst probable meteorological condition on Mill Creek, Butler and Hamilton Counties, Ohio. 1937. (Unpub- lished.) Supplement, 1938. *No. 8. A hydrometeorological analysis of possible maximum precipitation over St. Francis River Basin above Wappa . pello, Mo. 1938. *No. 9. A report on the possible occurrence of maximum precipitation over White River Basin above Mud Mountain Dam site, Wash. 1939. *No. 10. Maximum possible rainfall over the Arkansas River Basin above Caddoa, Colo. 1939. Supplement, 1939. *No. 11. A preliminary report on the maximum possible precipitation over the Dorena, Cottage Grove, and Fern Ridge Basins in the Willamette Basin, Oreg. 1939. *No. 12. Maximum possible precipitation over the Red River Basin above Denison, Tex. 1939. *No. 13. A report on the maximum possible precipitation over Cherry Creek Basin in Colorado. 1940. *No. 14. The frequency of flood-producing rainfall over the Pajaro River Basin in California. 1940. *No. 15. A report on depth-frequency relations of thunderstorm rainfall on the Sevier Basin, Utah.
[Show full text]
Volume 1-3 North Central Florida Region Technical Data Report
Volume 1-3 North Central Florida Region Technical Data Report CHAPTER II REGIONAL HAZARDS ANALYSIS This page intentionally left blank. Statewide Regional Evacuation Studies Program Volume 1-3 North Central Florida Table of Contents CHAPTER II REGIONAL HAZARDS ANALYSIS .................................................................... 1 A. Hazards Identification and Risk Assessment ........................................................................ 1 1. Frequency of Occurrence .................................................................................................... 1 2. Vulnerability Factors ............................................................................................................ 1 3. Vulnerability Impact Areas .................................................................................................. 1 B. Coastal Storms and Hurricanes .............................................................................................. 5 1. Coastal Storm /Hurricane Hazard Profile .......................................................................... 5 2. Hurricane Hazards ................................................................................................................ 7 3. Storm Surge: The SLOSH Model ........................................................................................ 8 4. Hurricane Wind Analysis.................................................................................................... 17 5. Tornadoes ..........................................................................................................................
[Show full text]
Hurricanes and Climate Change
Special Report: Hurricanes and Climate Change Judith Curry Climate Forecast Applications Network Version 2 4 September 2019 Contact information: Judith Curry, President Climate Forecast Applications Network Reno, NV 89519 404 803 2012 [email protected] http://www.cfanclimate.net 1 Hurricanes and Climate Change Judith Curry Climate Forecast Applications Network Executive summary . 4 1. Introduction . 5 2. Hurricane terminology, structure and mechanisms . 6 2.1 Hurricane processes 2.2 Factors contributing to landfall impacts 2.2.1 Wind damage 2.2.2 Storm surge 2.2.3 Rainfall 3. Historical variability and trends . 12 3.1 Global 3.2 Atlantic 3.3 Pacific 3.4 Conclusions 4. Detection and attribution . 26 4.1 Detection 4.2 Sources of variability and change 4.3 Natural multi-decadal climate modes 4.4 Attribution – models 4.5 Attribution – physical understanding 4.6 Conclusions 5. Landfalling hurricanes . 43 5.1 Continental U.S. 5.2 Caribbean 5.3 Global 5.4 Water – rainfall and storm surge 5.5 Hurricane size 5.6 Damage and losses 5.7 Conclusions 6. Attribution: recent U.S. landfalling hurricanes . 58 6.1 Detection and attribution of extreme weather events 6.2 Sandy 6.3 Harvey 6.4 Irma 6.5 Florence 6.6 Michael 6.7. Conclusions 2 7. 21st century projections . 66 7.1 Climate model projections 7.2 2100 – manmade climate change 7.3 2050 – decadal variability 7.3 Landfall impacts 8. Conclusions . 78 References . 80 3 Executive summary This Report assesses the scientific basis for projections of future hurricane activity. The Report evaluates the assessments and projections from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and recent national assessments regarding hurricanes.
[Show full text]
September Weather History for the 1St - 30Th
SEPTEMBER WEATHER HISTORY FOR THE 1ST - 30TH AccuWeather Site Address- http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?showtopic=7074 West Henrico Co. - Glen Allen VA. Site Address- (Ref. AccWeather Weather History) -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- AccuWeather.com Forums _ Your Weather Stories / Historical Storms _ Today in Weather History Posted by: BriSr Sep 1 2008, 11:37 AM September 1 MN History 1807 Earliest known comprehensive Minnesota weather record began near Pembina. The temperature at midday was 86 degrees and a "strong wind until sunset." 1894 The Great Hinckley Fire. Drought conditions started a massive fire that began near Mille Lacs and spread to the east. The firestorm destroyed Hinckley and Sandstone and burned a forest area the size of the Twin City Metropolitan Area. Smoke from the fires brought shipping on Lake Superior to a standstill. 1926 This was perhaps the most intense brief thunderstorm ever in downtown Minneapolis. 1.02 inches of rain fell in six minutes, starting at 2:59pm in the afternoon according to the Minneapolis Weather Bureau. The deluge, accompanied with winds of 42mph, caused visibility to be reduced to a few feet at times and stopped all streetcar and automobile traffic. At second and sixth street in downtown Minneapolis rushing water tore a manhole cover off and a geyser of water spouted 20 feet in the air. Hundreds of wooden paving blocks were uprooted and floated onto neighboring lawns much to the delight of barefooted children seen scampering among the blocks after the rain ended. U.S. History # 1897 - Hailstone drifts six feet deep were reported in Washington County, IA.
[Show full text]
Spatial and Temporal Variability of Tropical Storm and Hurricane Strikes
Louisiana State University LSU Digital Commons LSU Master's Theses Graduate School 2007 Spatial and temporal variability of tropical storm and hurricane strikes in the Bahamas, and the Greater and Lesser Antilles Alexa Jo Andrews Louisiana State University and Agricultural and Mechanical College, [email protected] Follow this and additional works at: https://digitalcommons.lsu.edu/gradschool_theses Part of the Social and Behavioral Sciences Commons Recommended Citation Andrews, Alexa Jo, "Spatial and temporal variability of tropical storm and hurricane strikes in the Bahamas, and the Greater and Lesser Antilles" (2007). LSU Master's Theses. 3558. https://digitalcommons.lsu.edu/gradschool_theses/3558 This Thesis is brought to you for free and open access by the Graduate School at LSU Digital Commons. It has been accepted for inclusion in LSU Master's Theses by an authorized graduate school editor of LSU Digital Commons. For more information, please contact [email protected]. SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL VARIABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM AND HURRICANE STRIKES IN THE BAHAMAS, AND THE GREATER AND LESSER ANTILLES A Thesis Submitted to the Graduate Faculty of the Louisiana State University and Agricultural and Mechanical College in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Science in The Department of Geography and Anthropology by Alexa Jo Andrews B.S., Louisiana State University, 2004 December, 2007 Table of Contents List of Tables.........................................................................................................................iii
[Show full text]
"Liquid" Sunshine State by Melissa Griffin, Assistant State Climatologist
Florida . The "Liquid" Sunshine State By Melissa Griffin, Assistant State Climatologist and Florida CoCoRaHS Coordinator Climate is Florida's most important physical resource, a fact well recognized by its citizens, whose state government officially designated it the Sunshine State in 1970. Florida is mainly a long peninsula, and with the exception of the northwestern part of the state, no place is more than 80 miles from both the Gulf of Mexico and the Atlantic Ocean. This proximity to water has an impact on both temperatures and precipitation across the state. The Atlantic Ocean and the Gulf of Mexico act as major modifiers of the state's temperature during all seasons, but particularly in the winter. During Florida's coldest month (January), average temperatures range from the lower 50s in the north to the upper 60s in the south. The mild temperatures give way to the "dog days of summer," when average temperatures across the entire state are about the same (lower 80s). Florida's summer high temperatures can be extremely draining, even though Florida experiences far fewer days of 100F days than most other states. This is because Florida is among the wettest states in the nation and its atmosphere is so humid that its summers are among the most uncomfortable. Despite these typical temperature patterns, Florida has had its fair share of extremes. The state record for minimum temperature is -2F set in Tallahassee, Florida, on February 13, 1899, while the hottest temperature recorded in the state was 109F on June 29, 1931, in Monticello, Florida. Oddly enough, the two record-holding stations are only 25 miles apart.
[Show full text]