Hurricanes and Climate Change
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Climate Change and Human Health: Risks and Responses
Climate change and human health RISKS AND RESPONSES Editors A.J. McMichael The Australian National University, Canberra, Australia D.H. Campbell-Lendrum London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom C.F. Corvalán World Health Organization, Geneva, Switzerland K.L. Ebi World Health Organization Regional Office for Europe, European Centre for Environment and Health, Rome, Italy A.K. Githeko Kenya Medical Research Institute, Kisumu, Kenya J.D. Scheraga US Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, DC, USA A. Woodward University of Otago, Wellington, New Zealand WORLD HEALTH ORGANIZATION GENEVA 2003 WHO Library Cataloguing-in-Publication Data Climate change and human health : risks and responses / editors : A. J. McMichael . [et al.] 1.Climate 2.Greenhouse effect 3.Natural disasters 4.Disease transmission 5.Ultraviolet rays—adverse effects 6.Risk assessment I.McMichael, Anthony J. ISBN 92 4 156248 X (NLM classification: WA 30) ©World Health Organization 2003 All rights reserved. Publications of the World Health Organization can be obtained from Marketing and Dis- semination, World Health Organization, 20 Avenue Appia, 1211 Geneva 27, Switzerland (tel: +41 22 791 2476; fax: +41 22 791 4857; email: [email protected]). Requests for permission to reproduce or translate WHO publications—whether for sale or for noncommercial distribution—should be addressed to Publications, at the above address (fax: +41 22 791 4806; email: [email protected]). The designations employed and the presentation of the material in this publication do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the World Health Organization concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries. -
NOAA Technical Memorandum NWS HYDR0-20 STORM TIDE
NOAA Technical Memorandum NWS HYDR0-20 STORM TIDE FREQUENCY ANALYSIS FOR THE GULF COAST OF FLORIDA FROM CAPE SAN BLAS TO ST. PETERSBURG BEACH Francis P. Ho and Robert J. Tracey Office of Hydrology Silver Spring, Md. April 1975 UNITED STATES /NATIONAL OCEANIC AND / National Weather DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION Service Frederick B. Dent, Secretar1 Robert M. White, Administrator George P, Cressman, Director CONTENTS 1. Introduction. • • • • • • • 1 1.1 Objective and scope •• 1 1.2 Authorization •• 1 1.3 Study method •• 2 2. Summary of historical hurricanes •• 2 2.1 Hurricane tracks 2 2.2 Historical notes 3 3. Climatology of hurricane characteristics. 8 3.1 Frequency of hurricane tracks •••. 8 3.2 Probability distribution of hurricane intensity. 8 3.3 Probability distribution of radius of maximum winds. 9 3.4 Probability distribution of speed and direction of forward motion • . • • • • • • • • 9 4. Hurricane surge • • • • 9 4.1 Surge model ••• 9 4.2 Shoaling factor •• 10 5. Tide frequency analysis by joint probability method • 10 5.1 The joint probability method • 10 5.2 Astronomical tides •••••• 11 5.2.1 Reference datum •.•••• 11 Table 1. Tropical storm parameters - Clearwater, Fla 12 Table 2. Tropical storm parameters - Bayport, Fla •• 13 Table 3. Tropical storm parameters - Cedar Key, Fla. 14 Table 4. Tropical storm parameters- Rock ·Islands, Fla .. 15 Table 5. Tropical storm parameters - Carrabelle, Fla • 16 Table 6. Tropical storm parameters - Apalachicola, Fla 17 5.2.2 Astronomical tide • • • •.• 19 5.3 Prestorm water level ••••••. 19 5.4 Tide frequencies • • • • . • ••• 19 5.5 Adjustment along coast ••••••.•••.•••. 19 5.6 Comparison of frequency curves with observed tides and high-water marks • • • • • • • • • • • . -
Weathering US–Cuba Political Storms: José Rubiera Phd Cuba’S Chief Weather Forecaster
Interview Weathering US–Cuba Political Storms: José Rubiera PhD Cuba’s Chief Weather Forecaster Gail Reed MS E. Añé Full disclosure: chief weather forecaster is not his of cial title, but rather one affectionally con- ferred on Dr Rubiera by the Cuban people, who look to him not only in times of peril, but also to learn about the science of meteorology. Any- one who has taken a taxi in Cuba during hur- ricane season (June 1 to November 30), and bothered to ask the driver, will receive a clear explanation about how hurricanes are formed, what the Saf r-Simpson scale is all about, and how the season is shaping up—all courtesy of Dr Rubiera’s talent for communication during nightly weather forecasts and special broad- casts. It’s no exaggeration to say that he is something of an icon in Cuba, a man people trust. Now, he is retired as chief of forecasting at Cu- ba’s Meteorology Institute, but he stays on as an advisor, and since 1989 represents Cuba’s Meteorological Service as the Vice Chairper- son of the World Meteorological Organization’s Hurricane Finally, he has been a driving force in Cuba for collaboration Committee for Region IV (North America, Central America and with Miami’s National Hurricane Center (NHC) and other US the Caribbean). He also keeps a spot on nightly news and meteorologists (in fact, the Chairperson of the Region IV Com- hosts two TV shows of his own: Global Weather and Weather mittee is the head of the NHC). in the Caribbean. -
Response to Request for Input from Commissioner Allison Herron Lee, Securities and Exchange Commission
Response to Request for Input from Commissioner Allison Herron Lee, Securities and Exchange Commission on Climate Risk Disclosures Benjamin Zycher Resident Scholar, American Enterprise Institute June 10, 2021 Estimation of climate “risks” by public companies would be futile, politicized, distorted by an imperative to avoid regulatory and litigation threats, and largely arbitrary, and thus would not serve the traditional goal of the provision of material information to investors. Submitted by webform: https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/ruling-comments This comment letter responds to a request for input from Securities and Exchange Commissioner Allison Herren Lee on the topic of climate “risk” disclosures by public companies.1 It is organized as follows: Summary I. Climate Uncertainties and Choices Among Crucial Assumptions. II. The Evidence on Climate Phenomena and the Effects of Climate Policies in the EPA Climate Model. III. Observations on the Materiality of Climate “Risks.” IV. Additional Observations and Conclusions. 1 See https://www.sec.gov/news/public-statement/lee-climate-change-disclosures#. The American Enterprise Institute (AEI) is a nonpartisan, nonprofit, 501(c)(3) educational organization and does not take institutional positions on any issues. The views expressed in this testimony are those of the author. 2 Summary • No public company and few, if any, government administrative agencies are in a position to evaluate climate phenomena, whether ongoing or prospective, with respect to which the scientific uncertainties are vastly greater than commonly asserted. • The range of alternative assumptions about central parameters is too great to yield clear implications for the climate “risks” facing specific public companies, economic sectors, and geographic regions. -
Florida's Water Resources1
FE757 Florida’s Water Resources1 Tatiana Borisova and Tara Wade2 Introduction: Why Water Resources Are Important “Water is the lifeblood of our bodies, our economy, our nation and our well-being” (Stephen Lee Johnson, Head of EPA under G.W. Bush Administration). This quote sums up the importance of water resources. We use water for drinking, gardening, and other household uses, in agriculture (e.g., for irrigation), and in energy production and industrial processes (e.g., for cooling in thermoelectric power generation). Clean and plentiful water resources are also important for our recreational activities (e.g., boating, swimming, or fishing). Water also Figure 1. In November, manatees migrate to warmer coastal waters, sustains wildlife (such as manatees) and is an integral part such as Crystal River on the west coast of Florida (Source: UF/IFAS/ICS) of Florida’s environment (Figure 1). The use of water is increasing along with Florida’s of Florida’s water resources is a first step toward optimizing population. Floridians rely on underground freshwater current freshwater supply use and ensuring adequate water reserves, called aquifers, to supply our diverse water needs resources in the future. (USGS 2016a). In some Florida regions, this underground freshwater reserve can no longer sustain the growing water demands of the population, while also feeding Florida’s riv- Hydrologic Cycle: Where Water ers, springs, and lakes. With periodic droughts, shortages of Originates and Where It Goes freshwater may occur. Drought and water shortages in the Toni Morrison, an American novelist, once said that “all state have caused urban planners and policy makers to pay water has a perfect memory and is forever trying to get closer attention to water use, water supply development, back to where it was.” Indeed, water is constantly moving. -
STATEMENT to the COMMITTEE on SCIENCE, SPACE and TECHNOLOGY of the UNITED STATES HOUSE of REPRESENTATIVES Hearing on Climate S
STATEMENT TO THE COMMITTEE ON SCIENCE, SPACE AND TECHNOLOGY OF THE UNITED STATES HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES Hearing on Climate Science: Assumptions, Policy Implications and the Scientific Method 29 March 2017 Judith A. Curry Climate Forecast Applications Network Georgia Institute of Technology [email protected] Major points: • Scientific progress is driven by the creative tension spurred by disagreement, uncertainty and ignorance. • Progress in understanding the climate system is being hampered by an institutionalized effort to stifle this creative tension, in the name of a ‘consensus’ that humans have caused recent climate change. • Motivated by the mandate from the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), the climate community has prematurely elevated a scientific hypothesis on human-caused climate change to a ruling theory through claims of a consensus. • Premature theories enforced by an explicit consensus building process harm scientific progress because of the questions that don’t get asked and the investigations that aren’t undertaken. As a result, we lack the kinds of information to more broadly understand climate variability and societal vulnerabilities. • Challenges to climate research have been exacerbated by: o Unreasonable expectations from policy makers o Scientists who are playing power politics with their expertise and trying to silence scientific disagreement through denigrating scientist who do not agree with them o Professional societies that oversee peer review in professional journals are writing policy statements endorsing the consensus and advocating for specific policies • Policymakers bear the responsibility of the mandate that they give to panels of scientific experts. The UNFCCC framed the climate change problem too narrowly and demanded of the IPCC too much precision – where complexity, chaos, disagreement and the level of current understanding resists such precision. -
Remote Sensing-Based Flood Mapping and Flood Hazard Assessment in Haiti
www.dartmouth.edu/~floods/ csdms.colorado.edu Remote Sensing-based Flood Mapping and Flood Hazard Assessment in Haiti “Rebuilding for Resilience: How Science and Engineering Can Inform Haiti's Reconstruction, March 22 - March 23, 2010, University of Miami - Coral Gables, FL Prof. G. Robert Brakenridge Dartmouth Flood Observatory, Dartmouth College, and Visiting Scientist, Community Surface Dynamics Modeling System, University of Colorado Dr. Scott D. Peckham (Presenter) Community Surface Dynamics Modeling System, University of Colorado 1) Floods commonly produce catastrophic damage in Haiti 2) Not all such floods are from tropical cyclones On May 18-25, 2004, a low-pressure system originating from Central America brought exceptionally heavy showers and thunderstorms to Haiti and the Dominican Republic. Rainfall amounts exceeded 500 mm (19.7 inches) across the border areas of Haiti and the Dominican Republic At the town of Jimani, DR, 250 mm (10 inches) of rain fell in just 24 hours. NASA Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) data. Lethal Major Floods in the Dominican Republic / Haiti are a Near-Annual Event The Dartmouth Flood Observatory data archive dates back to 1985. Between 1986 and early 2004 (prior to Hurricane Jeanne in November), at least, fourteen lethal events impacted the island, including: Year Month Casualties 1986 early June >39 1986 late October 40 1988 early September - Hurricane Gilbert 237 1993 late May 20 1994 early November – Hurricane Gordon >1000 1996 mid November 18 1998 Late August – Hurricane Gustaf >22 1998 late September - Hurricane Georges >400 1999 late October - Hurricane Jose 4 2001 mid-May 15 2002 late May 30 2003 early December - Tropical Storm Odette 8 2003 mid-November 10 2004 late May >2000 NASA’s two MODIS sensors, Aqua and Terra, are an important flood mapping tool: • Visible and near IR spectral bands provide excellent land/water discrimination over wide areas. -
Florida Hurricanes and Tropical Storms
FLORIDA HURRICANES AND TROPICAL STORMS 1871-1995: An Historical Survey Fred Doehring, Iver W. Duedall, and John M. Williams '+wcCopy~~ I~BN 0-912747-08-0 Florida SeaGrant College is supported by award of the Office of Sea Grant, NationalOceanic and Atmospheric Administration, U.S. Department of Commerce,grant number NA 36RG-0070, under provisions of the NationalSea Grant College and Programs Act of 1966. This information is published by the Sea Grant Extension Program which functionsas a coinponentof the Florida Cooperative Extension Service, John T. Woeste, Dean, in conducting Cooperative Extensionwork in Agriculture, Home Economics, and Marine Sciences,State of Florida, U.S. Departmentof Agriculture, U.S. Departmentof Commerce, and Boards of County Commissioners, cooperating.Printed and distributed in furtherance af the Actsof Congressof May 8 andJune 14, 1914.The Florida Sea Grant Collegeis an Equal Opportunity-AffirmativeAction employer authorizedto provide research, educational information and other servicesonly to individuals and institutions that function without regardto race,color, sex, age,handicap or nationalorigin. Coverphoto: Hank Brandli & Rob Downey LOANCOPY ONLY Florida Hurricanes and Tropical Storms 1871-1995: An Historical survey Fred Doehring, Iver W. Duedall, and John M. Williams Division of Marine and Environmental Systems, Florida Institute of Technology Melbourne, FL 32901 Technical Paper - 71 June 1994 $5.00 Copies may be obtained from: Florida Sea Grant College Program University of Florida Building 803 P.O. Box 110409 Gainesville, FL 32611-0409 904-392-2801 II Our friend andcolleague, Fred Doehringpictured below, died on January 5, 1993, before this manuscript was completed. Until his death, Fred had spent the last 18 months painstakingly researchingdata for this book. -
Statement of Undisputed Facts
SUPERIOR COURT OF THE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA CIVIL DIVISION ) MICHAEL E. MANN, PH.D., ) ) Plaintiff, ) ) Case No. 2012 CA 008263 B v. ) Judge Alfred S. Irving, Jr. ) NATIONAL REVIEW, INC., et al., ) ) Defendants. ) ) STATEMENT OF UNDISPUTED MATERIAL FACTS IN SUPPORT OF DEFENDANT STEYN’S MOTION FOR SUMMARY JUDGMENT Defendant Mark Steyn submits the following Statement of Undisputed Material Facts in support of his Motion for Summary Judgment. Mark Steyn’s July 15, 2012 Blog Post 1. On July 15, 2012, Mark Steyn posted a blog titled “Football and Hockey” on National Review’s online blog “The Corner” (“the Steyn Post”) to National Review Online. See Mark Steyn, Football and Hockey, National Review Online, July 15, 2012, https://www.nationalreview.com/corner/football-and-hockey-mark-steyn/. 2. The Steyn Post states, in full: In the wake of Louis Freeh’s report on Penn State’s complicity in serial rape, Rand Simberg writes of Unhappy Valley’s other scandal: I’m referring to another cover up and whitewash that occurred [at Penn State] two years ago, before we learned how rotten and corrupt the culture at the university was. But now that we know how bad it was, perhaps it’s time that we revisit the Michael Mann affair, particularly given how much we’ve also learned about his and others’ hockey-stick deceptions since. Mann could be said to be the Jerry Sandusky of climate science, except that instead of molesting children, he has molested and tortured data in the service of politicized science that could have dire economic consequences for the nation and planet. -
A Rational Discussion of Climate Change: the Science, the Evidence, the Response
A RATIONAL DISCUSSION OF CLIMATE CHANGE: THE SCIENCE, THE EVIDENCE, THE RESPONSE HEARING BEFORE THE SUBCOMMITTEE ON ENERGY AND ENVIRONMENT COMMITTEE ON SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES ONE HUNDRED ELEVENTH CONGRESS SECOND SESSION NOVEMBER 17, 2010 Serial No. 111–114 Printed for the use of the Committee on Science and Technology ( Available via the World Wide Web: http://www.science.house.gov U.S. GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE 62–618PDF WASHINGTON : 2010 For sale by the Superintendent of Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office Internet: bookstore.gpo.gov Phone: toll free (866) 512–1800; DC area (202) 512–1800 Fax: (202) 512–2104 Mail: Stop IDCC, Washington, DC 20402–0001 COMMITTEE ON SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY HON. BART GORDON, Tennessee, Chair JERRY F. COSTELLO, Illinois RALPH M. HALL, Texas EDDIE BERNICE JOHNSON, Texas F. JAMES SENSENBRENNER JR., LYNN C. WOOLSEY, California Wisconsin DAVID WU, Oregon LAMAR S. SMITH, Texas BRIAN BAIRD, Washington DANA ROHRABACHER, California BRAD MILLER, North Carolina ROSCOE G. BARTLETT, Maryland DANIEL LIPINSKI, Illinois VERNON J. EHLERS, Michigan GABRIELLE GIFFORDS, Arizona FRANK D. LUCAS, Oklahoma DONNA F. EDWARDS, Maryland JUDY BIGGERT, Illinois MARCIA L. FUDGE, Ohio W. TODD AKIN, Missouri BEN R. LUJA´ N, New Mexico RANDY NEUGEBAUER, Texas PAUL D. TONKO, New York BOB INGLIS, South Carolina STEVEN R. ROTHMAN, New Jersey MICHAEL T. MCCAUL, Texas JIM MATHESON, Utah MARIO DIAZ-BALART, Florida LINCOLN DAVIS, Tennessee BRIAN P. BILBRAY, California BEN CHANDLER, Kentucky ADRIAN SMITH, Nebraska RUSS CARNAHAN, Missouri PAUL C. BROUN, Georgia BARON P. HILL, Indiana PETE OLSON, Texas HARRY E. MITCHELL, Arizona CHARLES A. WILSON, Ohio KATHLEEN DAHLKEMPER, Pennsylvania ALAN GRAYSON, Florida SUZANNE M. -
Oversensitive How the Ipcc Hid the Good News on Global Warming
OVERSENSITIVE HOW THE IPCC HID THE GOOD NEWS ON GLOBAL WARMING Nicholas Lewis and Marcel Crok Foreword by Professor Judith Curry The Global Warming Policy Foundation GWPF Report 12 GWPF REPORTS Views expressed in the publications of the Global Warming Policy Foundation are those of the authors, not those of the GWPF, its Trustees, its Academic Advisory Council members or its Directors. THE GLOBAL WARMING POLICY FOUNDATION Director Dr Benny Peiser Assistant Director Philipp Mueller BOARD OF TRUSTEES Lord Lawson (Chairman) Baroness Nicholson Lord Donoughue Lord Turnbull Lord Fellowes Sir James Spooner Rt Rev Peter Forster Bishop of Chester Sir Martin Jacomb ACADEMIC ADVISORY COUNCIL Professor David Henderson (Chairman) Professor Richard Lindzen Adrian Berry Professor Ross McKitrick Sir Samuel Brittan Professor Robert Mendelsohn Sir Ian Byatt Professor Sir Alan Peacock Professor Robert Carter Professor Ian Plimer Professor Vincent Courtillot Professor Paul Reiter Professor Freeman Dyson Dr Matt Ridley Christian Gerondeau Sir Alan Rudge Dr Indur Goklany Professor Nir Shaviv Professor William Happer Professor Philip Stott Professor Terence Kealey Professor Henrik Svensmark Professor Anthony Kelly Professor Richard Tol Professor Deepak Lal Dr David Whitehouse OVERSENSITIVE How the IPCC hid the good news on global warming Nicholas Lewis and Marcel Crok Foreword by Professor Judith Curry ISBN 978-0-9573880-7-9 c Copyright 2014 The Global Warming Policy Foundation Contents Contents 1 Foreword 3 About the authors 5 Executive summary 7 Introduction -
Vulnerability of the Suncoast Connector Toll Road Study Area to Future Storms and Sea Level Rise
Vulnerability of the Suncoast Connector Toll Road Study Area to Future Storms and Sea Level Rise Michael I. Volk, Belinda B. Nettles, Thomas S. Hoctor University of Florida April, 2020 Suncoast Connector Coastal Vulnerability Assessment 2 Abstract The Multi-use Corridors of Regional Economic Significance Program (M-CORES) authorizes the design and construction of three new toll road corridors through portions of Florida, including the proposed Suncoast Connector. This paper assesses the potential vulnerability of the Suncoast Connector study area and specifically the U.S. 19/U.S. 27/U.S. 98 corridor to coastal hazards including storms and sea level rise. The results of this analysis indicate that the study area and existing U.S. 19/U.S. 27/U.S. 98 corridor are not only currently at risk from flooding and coastal storms, but that sea level rise and climate change will significantly exacerbate these risks in the future. Findings include that at least 30 percent of the study area is already at risk from a Category 5 storm surge, with sea level rise projected to increase that risk even further. This region also provides one of the best opportunities for coastal biodiversity to functionally respond to increasing sea level rise, but a new major highway corridor along with the additional development that it facilitates will complicate biodiversity conservation and resiliency efforts. With these concerns in mind, it is critical to ensure that investment in new infrastructure, if pursued within the study area, is strategic and located in areas least vulnerable to impacts and repeat loss and least likely to conflict with efforts for facilitating the adaptation of regional natural systems to sea level rise and other related impacts.