Berkeley Earth Temperature Averaging Process
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UHI Wickham Et Al
1 Influence of Urban Heating on the Global Temperature Land Average 2 Using Rural Sites Identified from MODIS Classifications 3 4 submitted to GeoInformatics and GeoStatistics 5 6 Charlotte Wickham1, Robert Rohde2, Richard Muller3,4, Jonathan 7 Wurtele3,4, Judith Curry5, Don Groom3, Robert Jacobsen3,4, Saul 8 Perlmutter3,4, Arthur Rosenfeld3. 9 10 Corresponding Author Address: 11 Richard A. Muller 12 Berkeley Earth Project 13 2831 Garber St. 14 Berkeley CA 94705 15 email: [email protected] 16 1 University of California, Berkeley, CA, 94720; currently at Dept. Statistics, Oregon St. University; 2 Novim Group, 211 Rametto Road, Santa Barbara, CA, 93104; 3 Lawrence Berkeley Laboratory, Berkeley, CA, 94720; 4 Department of Physics, University of California, Berkeley CA 94720, 5Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA 30332;. Correspondence for all authors should be sent to The Berkeley Earth Project, 2831 Garber Street, Berkeley CA, 94705. 1 17 2 18 Abstract 19 20 The effect of urban heating on estimates of global average land surface 21 temperature is studied by applying an urban-rural classification based on 22 MODIS satellite data to the Berkeley Earth temperature dataset compilation of 23 36, 869 sites from 15 different publicly available sources. We compare the 24 distribution of linear temperature trends for these sites to the distribution for a 25 rural subset of 15, 594 sites chosen to be distant from all MODIS-identified 26 urban areas. While the trend distributions are broad, with one-third of the 27 stations in the US and worldwide having a negative trend, both distributions 28 show significant warming. -
The Conversion of a Climate-Change Skeptic - the New York Times
12/11/2017 The Conversion of a Climate-Change Skeptic - The New York Times https://nyti.ms/Ouq7Yv Opinion | OP-ED CONTRIBUTOR The Conversion of a Climate-Change Skeptic By RICHARD A. MULLER JULY 28, 2012 Berkeley, Calif. CALL me a converted skeptic. Three years ago I identified problems in previous climate studies that, in my mind, threw doubt on the very existence of global warming. Last year, following an intensive research effort involving a dozen scientists, I concluded that global warming was real and that the prior estimates of the rate of warming were correct. I’m now going a step further: Humans are almost entirely the cause. My total turnaround, in such a short time, is the result of careful and objective analysis by the Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature project, which I founded with my daughter Elizabeth. Our results show that the average temperature of the earth’s land has risen by two and a half degrees Fahrenheit over the past 250 years, including an increase of one and a half degrees over the most recent 50 years. Moreover, it appears likely that essentially all of this increase results from the human emission of greenhouse gases. These findings are stronger than those of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the United Nations group that defines the scientific and diplomatic consensus on global warming. In its 2007 report, the I.P.C.C. concluded only that most of the warming of the prior 50 years could be attributed to humans. It was possible, according to the I.P.C.C. -
Climate Change: Examining the Processes Used to Create Science and Policy, Hearing
CLIMATE CHANGE: EXAMINING THE PROCESSES USED TO CREATE SCIENCE AND POLICY HEARING BEFORE THE COMMITTEE ON SCIENCE, SPACE, AND TECHNOLOGY HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES ONE HUNDRED TWELFTH CONGRESS FIRST SESSION THURSDAY, MARCH 31, 2011 Serial No. 112–09 Printed for the use of the Committee on Science, Space, and Technology ( Available via the World Wide Web: http://science.house.gov U.S. GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE 65–306PDF WASHINGTON : 2011 For sale by the Superintendent of Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office Internet: bookstore.gpo.gov Phone: toll free (866) 512–1800; DC area (202) 512–1800 Fax: (202) 512–2104 Mail: Stop IDCC, Washington, DC 20402–0001 COMMITTEE ON SCIENCE, SPACE, AND TECHNOLOGY HON. RALPH M. HALL, Texas, Chair F. JAMES SENSENBRENNER, JR., EDDIE BERNICE JOHNSON, Texas Wisconsin JERRY F. COSTELLO, Illinois LAMAR S. SMITH, Texas LYNN C. WOOLSEY, California DANA ROHRABACHER, California ZOE LOFGREN, California ROSCOE G. BARTLETT, Maryland DAVID WU, Oregon FRANK D. LUCAS, Oklahoma BRAD MILLER, North Carolina JUDY BIGGERT, Illinois DANIEL LIPINSKI, Illinois W. TODD AKIN, Missouri GABRIELLE GIFFORDS, Arizona RANDY NEUGEBAUER, Texas DONNA F. EDWARDS, Maryland MICHAEL T. MCCAUL, Texas MARCIA L. FUDGE, Ohio PAUL C. BROUN, Georgia BEN R. LUJA´ N, New Mexico SANDY ADAMS, Florida PAUL D. TONKO, New York BENJAMIN QUAYLE, Arizona JERRY MCNERNEY, California CHARLES J. ‘‘CHUCK’’ FLEISCHMANN, JOHN P. SARBANES, Maryland Tennessee TERRI A. SEWELL, Alabama E. SCOTT RIGELL, Virginia FREDERICA S. WILSON, Florida STEVEN M. PALAZZO, Mississippi HANSEN CLARKE, Michigan MO BROOKS, Alabama ANDY HARRIS, Maryland RANDY HULTGREN, Illinois CHIP CRAVAACK, Minnesota LARRY BUCSHON, Indiana DAN BENISHEK, Michigan VACANCY (II) C O N T E N T S Thursday, March 31, 2011 Page Witness List ............................................................................................................ -
The Challenge of Urban Heat Exposure Under Climate Change: an Analysis of Cities in the Sustainable Healthy Urban Environments (SHUE) Database
climate Article The Challenge of Urban Heat Exposure under Climate Change: An Analysis of Cities in the Sustainable Healthy Urban Environments (SHUE) Database James Milner 1,*, Colin Harpham 2, Jonathon Taylor 3 ID , Mike Davies 3, Corinne Le Quéré 4, Andy Haines 1 ID and Paul Wilkinson 1,† 1 Department of Social & Environmental Health Research, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, 15-17 Tavistock Place, London WC1H 9SH, UK; [email protected] (A.H.); [email protected] (P.W.) 2 Climatic Research Unit, School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia, Norwich Research Park, Norwich NR4 7TJ, UK; [email protected] 3 UCL Institute for Environmental Design & Engineering, University College London, Central House, 14 Upper Woburn Place, London WC1H 0NN, UK; [email protected] (J.T.); [email protected] (M.D.) 4 Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia, Norwich Research Park, Norwich NR4 7TJ, UK; [email protected] * Correspondence: [email protected]; Tel.: +44-020-7927-2510 † On behalf of the SHUE project partners. Received: 31 July 2017; Accepted: 8 December 2017; Published: 13 December 2017 Abstract: The so far largely unabated emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs) are expected to increase global temperatures substantially over this century. We quantify the patterns of increases for 246 globally-representative cities in the Sustainable Healthy Urban Environments (SHUE) database. We used an ensemble of 18 global climate models (GCMs) run under a low (RCP2.6) and high (RCP8.5) emissions scenario to estimate the increase in monthly mean temperatures by 2050 and 2100 based on 30-year averages. -
Severe Drought in the Spring of 2020 in Poland—More of the Same?
agronomy Article Severe Drought in the Spring of 2020 in Poland—More of the Same? Iwona Pi ´nskwar* , Adam Chory ´nski and Zbigniew W. Kundzewicz Institute for Agricultural and Forest Environment, Polish Academy of Sciences, Bukowska 19, 60-809 Pozna´n,Poland; [email protected] (A.C.); [email protected] (Z.W.K.) * Correspondence: [email protected] Received: 5 October 2020; Accepted: 23 October 2020; Published: 26 October 2020 Abstract: Two consecutive dry years, 2018 and 2019, a warm winter in 2019/20, and a very dry spring in 2020 led to the development of severe drought in Poland. In this paper, changes in the Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) for the interval from 1971 to the end of May 2020 are examined. The values of SPEI (based on 12, 24 and 30 month windows, i.e., SPEI 12, SPEI 24 and SPEI 30) were calculated with the help of the Penman–Monteith equation. Changes in soil moisture contents were also examined from January 2000 to May 2020, based on data from the NASA Goddard Earth Sciences Data and Information Services Center, presenting increasing water shortages in a central belt of Poland. The study showed that the 2020 spring drought was among the most severe events in the analyzed period and presented decreasing trends of SPEI at most stations located in central Poland. This study also determined changes in soil moisture contents from January 2000 to May 2020 that indicate a decreasing tendency. Cumulative water shortages from year to year led to the development of severe drought in the spring of 2020, as reflected in very low SPEI values and low soil moisture. -
Response to Request for Input from Commissioner Allison Herron Lee, Securities and Exchange Commission
Response to Request for Input from Commissioner Allison Herron Lee, Securities and Exchange Commission on Climate Risk Disclosures Benjamin Zycher Resident Scholar, American Enterprise Institute June 10, 2021 Estimation of climate “risks” by public companies would be futile, politicized, distorted by an imperative to avoid regulatory and litigation threats, and largely arbitrary, and thus would not serve the traditional goal of the provision of material information to investors. Submitted by webform: https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/ruling-comments This comment letter responds to a request for input from Securities and Exchange Commissioner Allison Herren Lee on the topic of climate “risk” disclosures by public companies.1 It is organized as follows: Summary I. Climate Uncertainties and Choices Among Crucial Assumptions. II. The Evidence on Climate Phenomena and the Effects of Climate Policies in the EPA Climate Model. III. Observations on the Materiality of Climate “Risks.” IV. Additional Observations and Conclusions. 1 See https://www.sec.gov/news/public-statement/lee-climate-change-disclosures#. The American Enterprise Institute (AEI) is a nonpartisan, nonprofit, 501(c)(3) educational organization and does not take institutional positions on any issues. The views expressed in this testimony are those of the author. 2 Summary • No public company and few, if any, government administrative agencies are in a position to evaluate climate phenomena, whether ongoing or prospective, with respect to which the scientific uncertainties are vastly greater than commonly asserted. • The range of alternative assumptions about central parameters is too great to yield clear implications for the climate “risks” facing specific public companies, economic sectors, and geographic regions. -
Visualizing the Average Rohde FINAL
Visualizing of Berkeley Earth, NASA GISS, and Hadley CRU averaging techniques Robert Rohde Lead Scientist, Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature 1/15/2013 Abstract This document will provide a simple illustration of how different climate research groups combine discrete observations to construct large-scale views of Earth’s land areas. This illustration is meant as a simple way to summarize the different methodologies, though it has no specific research value beyond that. Introduction There are four major efforts to synthesize the Earth’s disparate temperature observations into a coherent picture of our planet’s climate history. These efforts are led respectively by NOAA’s National Climate Data Center (NOAA NCDC), NASA’s Goddard Institute of Space Sciences (NASA GISS), a collaboration between the University of East Anglia’s Climatic Research Unit and the UK Met Office’s Hadley Centre (CRU1), and the Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature group. Each group uses different averaging techniQues, Quality control procedures, homogenization techniques, and datasets. The current discussion will briefly look at the land-surface averaging methods applied by Berkeley Earth, CRU, and NASA GISS. NOAA’s method uses information from multiple times to construct an empirical orthogonal function representation of the Earth. Since the illustration performed here will only look at a single time slice, it isn’t possible to consider NOAA’s method, and hence their averaging techniQue will not be discussed here. Visualizing the Methods We shall provide an illustrative example of how the various averaging methods view the world. Rather than using temperature data, we will perform this illustration using a visual image of Earth’s land surface. -
The Disclosure of Climate Data from the Climatic Research Unit at the University of East Anglia
House of Commons Science and Technology Committee The disclosure of climate data from the Climatic Research Unit at the University of East Anglia Eighth Report of Session 2009–10 Report, together with formal minutes Ordered by the House of Commons to be printed 24 March 2010 HC 387-I Published on 31 March 2010 by authority of the House of Commons London: The Stationery Office Limited £0.00 The Science and Technology Committee The Science and Technology Committee is appointed by the House of Commons to examine the expenditure, administration and policy of the Government Office for Science. Under arrangements agreed by the House on 25 June 2009 the Science and Technology Committee was established on 1 October 2009 with the same membership and Chairman as the former Innovation, Universities, Science and Skills Committee and its proceedings were deemed to have been in respect of the Science and Technology Committee. Current membership Mr Phil Willis (Liberal Democrat, Harrogate and Knaresborough)(Chair) Dr Roberta Blackman-Woods (Labour, City of Durham) Mr Tim Boswell (Conservative, Daventry) Mr Ian Cawsey (Labour, Brigg & Goole) Mrs Nadine Dorries (Conservative, Mid Bedfordshire) Dr Evan Harris (Liberal Democrat, Oxford West & Abingdon) Dr Brian Iddon (Labour, Bolton South East) Mr Gordon Marsden (Labour, Blackpool South) Dr Doug Naysmith (Labour, Bristol North West) Dr Bob Spink (Independent, Castle Point) Ian Stewart (Labour, Eccles) Graham Stringer (Labour, Manchester, Blackley) Dr Desmond Turner (Labour, Brighton Kemptown) Mr Rob Wilson (Conservative, Reading East) Powers The Committee is one of the departmental Select Committees, the powers of which are set out in House of Commons Standing Orders, principally in SO No.152. -
Water-Saving Ideas Rejected at Meeting
THE TWEED SHIRE Volume 2 #15 Thursday, December 10, 2009 Advertising and news enquiries: Phone: (02) 6672 2280 Our new Fax: (02) 6672 4933 property guide [email protected] starts on page 19 [email protected] www.tweedecho.com.au LOCAL & INDEPENDENT Water-saving ideas Restored biplane gets the thumbs up rejected at meeting Luis Feliu years has resulted in new or modified developments having rainwater tanks Water-saving options for Tweed resi- to a maximum of 3,000 litres but re- dents such as rainwater tanks, recy- stricted to three uses: washing, toilet cling, composting toilets as well as flushing and external use. Rainwater population caps were suggested and tanks were not permitted in urban rejected at a public meeting on Mon- areas to be used for drinking water day night which looked at Tweed Some residents interjected, saying Shire Council’s plan to increase the that was ‘absurd’ and asked ‘why not?’ shire’s water supply. while others said 3,000 litres was too Around 80 people attended the small. meeting at Uki Hall, called by the Mr Burnham said council’s water Caldera Environment Centre and af- demand management strategy had fected residents from Byrrill Creek identified that 5,000-litre rainwater concerned about the proposal to dam tanks produced a significant decrease their creek, one of four options under in overall demand but council had no discussion to increase the shire’s water power to enforce their use. supply. The other options are rais- Reuse not explored Nick Challinor, left, and Steve Searle guide the Tiger -
Emerging Climate Justice Discourse
A dissertation submitted to the Department of Environmental Sciences and Policy of Central European University in part fulfillment of the Degree of Doctor of Philosophy Emerging Climate Justice Discourse: Perspectives of Grassroots Networks in the UK CEU eTD Collection Yulia BARABANOVA November, 2013 Budapest Notes on copyright and the ownership of intellectual property rights: (1) Copyright in text of this dissertation rests with the Author. Copies (by any process) either in full, or of extracts, may be made only in accordance with instructions given by the Author and lodged in the Central European University Library. Details may be obtained from the Librarian. This page must form part of any such copies made. Further copies (by any process) of copies made in accordance with such instructions may not be made without the permission (in writing) of the Author. (2) The ownership of any intellectual property rights which may be described in this dissertation is vested in the Central European University, subject to any prior agreement to the contrary, and may not be made available for use by third parties without the written permission of the University, which will prescribe the terms and conditions of any such agreement. (3) For bibliographic and reference purposes this dissertation should be referred to as: Barabanova, Y. 2013. Emerging Climate Justice Discourse: Perspectives of Grassroots Networks in the UK. Doctoral dissertation, Department of Environmental Sciences and Policy, Central European University, Budapest. Further information on the conditions under which disclosures and exploitation may take place is available from the Head of the Department of Environmental Sciences and Policy, Central European University. -
STATEMENT to the COMMITTEE on SCIENCE, SPACE and TECHNOLOGY of the UNITED STATES HOUSE of REPRESENTATIVES Hearing on Climate S
STATEMENT TO THE COMMITTEE ON SCIENCE, SPACE AND TECHNOLOGY OF THE UNITED STATES HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES Hearing on Climate Science: Assumptions, Policy Implications and the Scientific Method 29 March 2017 Judith A. Curry Climate Forecast Applications Network Georgia Institute of Technology [email protected] Major points: • Scientific progress is driven by the creative tension spurred by disagreement, uncertainty and ignorance. • Progress in understanding the climate system is being hampered by an institutionalized effort to stifle this creative tension, in the name of a ‘consensus’ that humans have caused recent climate change. • Motivated by the mandate from the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), the climate community has prematurely elevated a scientific hypothesis on human-caused climate change to a ruling theory through claims of a consensus. • Premature theories enforced by an explicit consensus building process harm scientific progress because of the questions that don’t get asked and the investigations that aren’t undertaken. As a result, we lack the kinds of information to more broadly understand climate variability and societal vulnerabilities. • Challenges to climate research have been exacerbated by: o Unreasonable expectations from policy makers o Scientists who are playing power politics with their expertise and trying to silence scientific disagreement through denigrating scientist who do not agree with them o Professional societies that oversee peer review in professional journals are writing policy statements endorsing the consensus and advocating for specific policies • Policymakers bear the responsibility of the mandate that they give to panels of scientific experts. The UNFCCC framed the climate change problem too narrowly and demanded of the IPCC too much precision – where complexity, chaos, disagreement and the level of current understanding resists such precision. -
Statement of Undisputed Facts
SUPERIOR COURT OF THE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA CIVIL DIVISION ) MICHAEL E. MANN, PH.D., ) ) Plaintiff, ) ) Case No. 2012 CA 008263 B v. ) Judge Alfred S. Irving, Jr. ) NATIONAL REVIEW, INC., et al., ) ) Defendants. ) ) STATEMENT OF UNDISPUTED MATERIAL FACTS IN SUPPORT OF DEFENDANT STEYN’S MOTION FOR SUMMARY JUDGMENT Defendant Mark Steyn submits the following Statement of Undisputed Material Facts in support of his Motion for Summary Judgment. Mark Steyn’s July 15, 2012 Blog Post 1. On July 15, 2012, Mark Steyn posted a blog titled “Football and Hockey” on National Review’s online blog “The Corner” (“the Steyn Post”) to National Review Online. See Mark Steyn, Football and Hockey, National Review Online, July 15, 2012, https://www.nationalreview.com/corner/football-and-hockey-mark-steyn/. 2. The Steyn Post states, in full: In the wake of Louis Freeh’s report on Penn State’s complicity in serial rape, Rand Simberg writes of Unhappy Valley’s other scandal: I’m referring to another cover up and whitewash that occurred [at Penn State] two years ago, before we learned how rotten and corrupt the culture at the university was. But now that we know how bad it was, perhaps it’s time that we revisit the Michael Mann affair, particularly given how much we’ve also learned about his and others’ hockey-stick deceptions since. Mann could be said to be the Jerry Sandusky of climate science, except that instead of molesting children, he has molested and tortured data in the service of politicized science that could have dire economic consequences for the nation and planet.