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Town of Longboat Key, Florida Initial Assessment to Address Sea Level Rise and Recurring Flooding

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Town of Longboat Key, Florida Initial Assessment to Address Sea Level Rise and Recurring Flooding TOWN OF LONGBOAT KEY, FLORIDA INITIAL ASSESSMENT TO ADDRESS SEA LEVEL RISE AND RECURRING FLOODING Prepared for: Town of Longboat Key, Florida Prepared by: Aptim Environmental & Infrastructure, Inc. December 2018 APTIM ENVIRONMENTAL & INFRASTRUCTURE, INC. TOWN OF LONGBOAT KEY, FLORIDA INITIAL ASSESSMENT TO ADDRESS SEA LEVEL RISE AND RECURRING FLOODING EXECUTIVE SUMMARY This report represents an initial assessment of the potential for sea level rise and recurring flooding to impact the Town of Longboat Key. In this assessment, a review of historical water levels was performed to identify historical trends in sea level rise and to determine the elevations of recurring storms. A review of historical data also was performed to assess if the historical records suggested that extreme water levels had occurred in the vicinity of Longboat Key. A survey of the public was performed to assess their concerns regarding sea level rise, and recurring flooding. A public workshop was held and provided an opportunity to gather public input into this assessment. Meetings were held with key Town staff to solicit information regarding Town facilities, storm response procedures, as well as public safety response challenges. This initial assessment has led to the following preliminary conclusions: 1. Sea levels have been rising at a rate of +0.11 inches per year (+1.1 inches per decade; +0.90 feet per century). Relevant future scenarios suggest to expect a rise of between 6 and 17 inches by 2050. These rates have been, and will continue to be, manageable rates of increase. 2. The Town has been, and continues to be, vulnerable to storm surge associated with recurring storm events. Recurring storm events will result in flooding of low lying streets, adjacent lands, and some residences and commercial property that were constructed prior to the adoption of minimum flood elevations. 3. Return period analysis of measured elevation data are lower than National Flood Insurance Studies’ estimates, which may be due to the lack of recent land falling hurricanes and tropical storms in the Longboat Key area. 4. On a relative scale, the vulnerability of private and public infrastructure to storm surges (measured in feet) is much greater than the impacts solely due to sea level rise (which is measured in inches). Prudent planning for the effects of recurring storm events will address long term sea level rise due to the relative magnitudes of the vertical scales. i APTIM ENVIRONMENTAL & INFRASTRUCTURE, INC. 5. A survey of residents of the Town indicates that they seem to be most concerned about emergency response times, the temporary displacement of residents in the event of flooding, the impacts of flooded homes, the disruption of public utilities, and the overall impact of storms and sea level rise on property values. 6. Previous Town efforts have improved the resiliency of Town infrastructure. There is no backlog of immediate needs. Town administration and planning have adequately provided a framework to address the potential impacts of recurring storms. This report outlines the next steps toward the development of an adaptation plan for addressing sea level rise and recurring flooding. The report also identifies grant funding opportunities that may allow the Town to receive financial assistance with the planning and implementation efforts. ii APTIM ENVIRONMENTAL & INFRASTRUCTURE, INC. TOWN OF LONGBOAT KEY, FLORIDA INITIAL ASSESSMENT TO ADDRESS SEA LEVEL RISE AND RECURRING FLOODING TABLE OF CONTENTS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY................................................................................................................. i I. INTRODUCTION .................................................................................................................. 1 II. PROJECT FRAMEWORK ..................................................................................................... 1 III. HISTORICAL DATA AND FUTURE SCENARIOS ........................................................... 4 A. Sea Levels .................................................................................................................. 4 B. Storm Surge .............................................................................................................. 11 C. Rainfall ..................................................................................................................... 14 IV. PUBLIC OUTREACH.......................................................................................................... 16 V. WORK COMPLETED BY THE TOWN ............................................................................. 18 VI. VULNERABILITIES ........................................................................................................... 19 VII. CONCLUSIONS................................................................................................................... 21 VIII. NEXT STEPS ....................................................................................................................... 22 IX. REFERENCES ..................................................................................................................... 24 APPENDIX A: Digital Elevation Maps APPENDIX B: Historical Data and Future Scenarios APPENDIX C: Work Completed by the Town APPENDIX D: Vulnerabilities and Preliminary Considerations APPENDIX E: Funding Opportunities iii APTIM ENVIRONMENTAL & INFRASTRUCTURE, INC. TOWN OF LONGBOAT KEY, FLORIDA INITIAL ASSESSMENT TO ADDRESS SEA LEVEL RISE AND RECURRING FLOODING I. INTRODUCTION The Town of Longboat Key is subject to long-term sea level rise and recurring storm events. The Town requested that Aptim Environmental & Infrastructure, Inc. (APTIM) develop an initial assessment of high-level resiliency/sea level rise that will help guide the Town moving forward. This is the 1st phase of a multi-step comprehensive planning effort. This work effort is intended to lead the Town toward implementing a comprehensive adaptation plan to address possible impacts from sea level rise and recurring storm vulnerability. The plan is intended to fit the size and character of the Town, and be grounded in the general economic resource capabilities of the Town1. The plan will not be an all-encompassing list of future public and private projects; but rather a road map to developing long-range adaptation strategies that will maintain flood protection and provide for the resiliency of the Town. II. PROJECT FRAMEWORK To ensure the long-term resilience of Longboat Key, the Town should develop and implement a 1. INITIAL ASSESSMENT comprehensive sea level rise adaptation plan. A 2. VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT framework to execute a comprehensive adaptation plan is summarized in Figure 1. The plan is based 3. ADAPTATION STRATEGIES on guidance provided by the Florida Adaptation Planning Guidebook (FDEP, 2018). 4. IMPLEMENTATION PLAN 1. Initial Assessment Figure 1. Phases of a Comprehensive Sea Level Rise Adaptation Plan The initial assessment, inclusive of this report, is the preliminary action that the Town is taking to facilitate a planning process going forward to address sea level rise and associated flooding events. The purpose of the initial assessment is to establish context early in the planning process to provide working knowledge of the variables at play, as well as to identify areas and priorities to focus on later in the Town’s planning process. Included in the initial assessment is engagement of the local community and relevant stakeholders to offer the opportunity to participate in the planning process and become vested in activities that directly affect them. The information gathered in the Initial Assessment also allows the Town to better guide the adaptation planning process as it unfolds. 1 In response to Hurricane Sandy in 2012, the State of New York pledged over $0.5B to a program called RaiseNY which aims to elevate homes out of low lying areas of the New York City region. The program likely received additional federal or local funding as well. Similar actions of this scope are not considered as part of this study. 1 APTIM ENVIRONMENTAL & INFRASTRUCTURE, INC. 2. Vulnerability Assessment The vulnerability assessment quantifies the vulnerability of Longboat Key and its sensitivity to sea level rise and storm impacts. Vulnerability of the Town’s infrastructure, natural environment, and safety of residents is assessed for current conditions and future scenarios of sea level rise and storms. Specific critical infrastructure and assets will be inventoried and assessed. This vulnerability assessment is scheduled for a future work assignment. 3. Adaptation Strategies Adaptation strategies are the toolkit of responses for a community to address sea level rise. Actionable adaptation strategies are developed by combining engineering protection measures, policy initiatives, and land use management strategies. A range of adaptation strategies are prioritized based on established vulnerability metrics. Preferred adaptation strategies will be identified and tailored that best fit the needs and goals of Longboat Key. This assessment of strategies is scheduled for a future work assignment. Some communities, who are also working to address sea level rise, have considered options in evaluating which adaptation strategies best fit their community. The following is provided to the Town of Longboat Key for future consideration. Some strategies may not be applicable Town- wide, but may be applicable to some sections of the Town. Some of the strategies listed below
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