Florida Hazardous Weather Day-By-Day
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Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook for June 2020
Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook for June 2020 ELEVATED U.S. RISKS FROM HURRICANE SEASON 2020 AS VERY BUSY YEAR BEGINS… Outlook Overview ➢ WeatherTiger’s WeatherTiger's June outlook for the 2020 hurricane season is for a 75-80% chance of an above average year, with a 15-20% chance of near-normal and just a 5% chance of below-normal cumulative activity. The median of our forecast is about 180% of average hurricane season activity, or around 19 named storms, nine hurricanes and five major hurricanes. ➢ This is slightly above the consensus of some other recently issued forecasts, likely due to our model's bullishness towards a La Niña developing by late summer or early fall. However, almost all forecast groups project above normal activity. ➢ Overall, while model skill remains limited at this range, convergent lines of evidence from our objective modeling and seasonal analogs support an active season, with the potential for a risky steering current regime in the peak months. Updated Seasonal Outlook for Tropical Cyclone Activity On a lighter note: hurricane season. The devil you know is back. Unlike a pandemic, at least taking down the shutters after a storm won’t make it return. This doesn’t imply that hurricane season 2020 will be reasonable. WeatherTiger’s updated seasonal forecast and a consensus of other guidance favors an abnormally active year. We expect net activity of about three-quarters more than the average season, with 95% odds of more storms than Dr. Birx has scarves. I’ll get into the forecast rationale and what it may mean for Florida, but first, a quick orientation for new readers: I’m Dr. -
Texas Hurricane History
Texas Hurricane History David Roth National Weather Service Camp Springs, MD Table of Contents Preface 3 Climatology of Texas Tropical Cyclones 4 List of Texas Hurricanes 8 Tropical Cyclone Records in Texas 11 Hurricanes of the Sixteenth and Seventeenth Centuries 12 Hurricanes of the Eighteenth and Early Nineteenth Centuries 13 Hurricanes of the Late Nineteenth Century 16 The First Indianola Hurricane - 1875 21 Last Indianola Hurricane (1886)- The Storm That Doomed Texas’ Major Port 24 The Great Galveston Hurricane (1900) 29 Hurricanes of the Early Twentieth Century 31 Corpus Christi’s Devastating Hurricane (1919) 38 San Antonio’s Great Flood – 1921 39 Hurricanes of the Late Twentieth Century 48 Hurricanes of the Early Twenty-First Century 68 Acknowledgments 74 Bibliography 75 Preface Every year, about one hundred tropical disturbances roam the open Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea, and Gulf of Mexico. About fifteen of these become tropical depressions, areas of low pressure with closed wind patterns. Of the fifteen, ten become tropical storms, and six become hurricanes. Every five years, one of the hurricanes will become reach category five status, normally in the western Atlantic or western Caribbean. About every fifty years, one of these extremely intense hurricanes will strike the United States, with disastrous consequences. Texas has seen its share of hurricane activity over the many years it has been inhabited. Nearly five hundred years ago, unlucky Spanish explorers learned firsthand what storms along the coast of the Lone Star State were capable of. Despite these setbacks, Spaniards set down roots across Mexico and Texas and started colonies. Galleons filled with gold and other treasures sank to the bottom of the Gulf, off such locations as Padre and Galveston Islands. -
Labour and the Struggle for Socialism
Labour and the Struggle for Socialism An ON THE BRINK Publication WIN Publications Summer 2020 On the Brink Editor: Roger Silverman, [email protected] Published by Workers International Network (WIN), contact: [email protected] Front cover photo: Phil Maxwell Labour and the Struggle for Socialism By Roger Silverman From THE RED FLAG (still the Labour Party’s official anthem) The people’s flag is deepest red, It shrouded oft our martyred dead, And ere their limbs grew stiff and cold, Their hearts’ blood dyed its every fold. CHORUS: Then raise the scarlet standard high. Beneath its shade we’ll live and die, Though cowards flinch and traitors sneer, We’ll keep the red flag flying here. With heads uncovered swear we all To bear it onward till we fall. Come dungeons dark or gallows grim, This song shall be our parting hymn. A Turning Point The recently leaked report of the antics of a clique of unaccountable bureaucrats ensconced in Labour headquarters has sent shock waves throughout the movement. Shock – but little surprise, because these creatures had always been in effect “hiding in plain sight”: ostensibly running the party machine, but actually hardly bothering to conceal their sabotage. All that was new was the revelation of the depths of their venom; their treachery; their racist bigotry; the vulgarity with which they bragged about their disloyalty; their contempt for the aspirations of the hundreds of thousands who had surged into the party behind its most popular leader ever, Jeremy Corbyn. They had betrayed the party that employed them and wilfully sabotaged the election prospects of a Labour government. -
Imagine2014 8B3 02 Gehrke
Loss Adjustment via Unmanned Aerial Systems (UAS) – Experiences and Challenges for Crop Insurance Thomas Gehrke, Regional Director Berlin, Resp. for International Affairs Loss Adjustment via UAS - Experiences and 20.10.2014 1 Challenges for Crop Insurance Structure 1. Introduction – Demo 2. Vereinigte Hagel – Market leader in Europe 3. Precision Agriculture – UAS 4. Crop insurance – Loss adjustment via UAS 5. Challenges and Conclusion Loss Adjustment via UAS - Experiences and Challenges for Crop Insurance 20.10.2014 2 Introduction – Demo Short film (not in pdf-file) Loss Adjustment via UAS - Experiences and Challenges for Crop Insurance 20.10.2014 3 Structure 1. Introduction – Demo 2. Vereinigte Hagel – Market leader in Europe 3. Precision Agriculture – UAS 4. Crop insurance – Loss adjustment via UAS 5. Challenges and Conclusion Loss Adjustment via UAS - Experiences and Challenges for Crop Insurance 20.10.2014 4 190 years of experience Secufarm® 1 Hail * Loss Adjustment via UAS - Experiences and Challenges for Crop Insurance 20.10.2014 5 2013-05-09, Hail – winter barley Loss Adjustment via UAS - Experiences and Challenges for Crop Insurance 20.10.2014 6 … and 4 weeks later Loss Adjustment via UAS - Experiences and Challenges for Crop Insurance 20.10.2014 7 Our Line of MPCI* Products PROFESSIONAL RISK MANAGEMENT is crucial part of modern agriculture. With Secufarm® products, farmers can decide individually which agricultural Secufarm® 6 crops they would like to insure against ® Fire & Drought which risks. Secufarm 4 Frost Secufarm® 3 Storm & Intense Rain Secufarm® 1 certain crop types are eligible Hail only for Secufarm 1 * MPCI: Multi Peril Crop Insurance Loss Adjustment via UAS - Experiences and Challenges for Crop Insurance 20.10.2014 8 Insurable Damages and their Causes Hail Storm Frost WEATHER RISKS are increasing further. -
Climatic Information of Western Sahel F
Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Clim. Past Discuss., 10, 3877–3900, 2014 www.clim-past-discuss.net/10/3877/2014/ doi:10.5194/cpd-10-3877-2014 CPD © Author(s) 2014. CC Attribution 3.0 License. 10, 3877–3900, 2014 This discussion paper is/has been under review for the journal Climate of the Past (CP). Climatic information Please refer to the corresponding final paper in CP if available. of Western Sahel V. Millán and Climatic information of Western Sahel F. S. Rodrigo (1535–1793 AD) in original documentary sources Title Page Abstract Introduction V. Millán and F. S. Rodrigo Conclusions References Department of Applied Physics, University of Almería, Carretera de San Urbano, s/n, 04120, Almería, Spain Tables Figures Received: 11 September 2014 – Accepted: 12 September 2014 – Published: 26 September J I 2014 Correspondence to: F. S. Rodrigo ([email protected]) J I Published by Copernicus Publications on behalf of the European Geosciences Union. Back Close Full Screen / Esc Printer-friendly Version Interactive Discussion 3877 Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Abstract CPD The Sahel is the semi-arid transition zone between arid Sahara and humid tropical Africa, extending approximately 10–20◦ N from Mauritania in the West to Sudan in the 10, 3877–3900, 2014 East. The African continent, one of the most vulnerable regions to climate change, 5 is subject to frequent droughts and famine. One climate challenge research is to iso- Climatic information late those aspects of climate variability that are natural from those that are related of Western Sahel to human influences. -
Hurricane Fifi and the 1974 Autumn Migration in El Salvador
condor, 82:212-218 @I The Cooper Ornithological Society 1980 HURRICANE FIFI AND THE 1974 AUTUMN MIGRATION IN EL SALVADOR WALTER A. THURBER ABSTRACT.-In the autumn of 1974 the migration pattern in El Salvador had several unusual features, too many to have been merely coincidental: 1) delayed arrival of certain early migrants whose appearance overlapped with that of later migrants; 2) unprecedented numbers of a few species; 3) the appearance of several rarely seen or previously unreported species; 4) exten- sion of winter ranges of a few species which was maintained for several years after. These events were closely associated with Hurricane Fifi (17-20 Sep- tember) and to a lesser extent with Hurricane Carmen (l-6 September). I attribute the unusual features of the 1974 migration to Hurricane Fifi (pos- sibly augmented by Carmen) after comparison of routes and schedules of early migrants with the route, dates, wind directions, and velocities of Fifi. I suggest that other hurricanes have affected and will affect migration through Middle America but that serious disruptions are probably rare and unpre- dictable. In the course of my 10 years of netting and METHODS AND SOURCES OF DATA banding birds in El Salvador, Central Amer- From my field notes and netting records I selected data ica, the fall of 1974 was exceptional for the which show the unusual nature of the 1974 migration. early migration pattern and for the arrival of For comparison I summarized relevant information for several uncommon and previously unre- other years as given by my notes and the literature. My field notes extend from 1966, my netting records from ported species. -
FMFRP 0-54 the Persian Gulf Region, a Climatological Study
FMFRP 0-54 The Persian Gulf Region, AClimatological Study U.S. MtrineCorps PCN1LiIJ0005LFII 111) DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT A: Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited DEPARTMENT OF THE NAVY Headquarters United States Marine Corps Washington, DC 20380—0001 19 October 1990 FOREWORD 1. PURPOSE Fleet Marine Force Reference Publication 0-54, The Persian Gulf Region. A Climatological Study, provides information on the climate in the Persian Gulf region. 2. SCOPE While some of the technical information in this manual is of use mainly to meteorologists, much of the information is invaluable to anyone who wishes to predict the consequences of changes in the season or weather on military operations. 3. BACKGROUND a. Desert operations have much in common with operations in the other parts of the world. The unique aspects of desert operations stem primarily from deserts' heat and lack of moisture. While these two factors have significant consequences, most of the doctrine, tactics, techniques, and procedures used in operations in other parts of the world apply to desert operations. The challenge of desert operations is to adapt to a new environment. b. FMFRP 0-54 was originally published by the USAF Environmental Technical Applications Center in 1988. In August 1990, the manual was published as Operational Handbook 0-54. 4. SUPERSESSION Operational Handbook 0-54 The Persian Gulf. A Climatological Study; however, the texts of FMFRP 0—54 and OH 0-54 are identical and OH 0-54 will continue to be used until the stock is exhausted. 5. RECOMMENDATIONS This manual will not be revised. However, comments on the manual are welcomed and will be used in revising other manuals on desert warfare. -
Orleans Parish Hazard Mitigation Plan
Hazard Mitigation Plan City of New Orleans Office of Homeland Security and Emergency Preparedness January 7, 2021 1300 Perdido Street, Suite 9W03 (504) 658-8740 ready.nola.gov/hazard-mitigation DRAFT – January 7, 2020 1 Table of Contents Section 1: Introduction ................................................................................................................... 9 1.1 New Orleans Community Profile ...................................................................................................... 11 1.1.1 Location ..................................................................................................................................... 11 1.1.2 History of Orleans Parish ........................................................................................................... 12 1.1.3 Climate ....................................................................................................................................... 14 1.1.4 Transportation ............................................................................................................................ 15 1.1.5 Community Assets ..................................................................................................................... 17 1.1.6 Land Use and Zoning ................................................................................................................. 18 1.1.7 Population .................................................................................................................................. 24 1.1.8 -
Fishing Pier Design Guidance Part 1
Fishing Pier Design Guidance Part 1: Historical Pier Damage in Florida Ralph R. Clark Florida Department of Environmental Protection Bureau of Beaches and Coastal Systems May 2010 Table of Contents Foreword............................................................................................................................. i Table of Contents ............................................................................................................... ii Chapter 1 – Introduction................................................................................................... 1 Chapter 2 – Ocean and Gulf Pier Damages in Florida................................................... 4 Chapter 3 – Three Major Hurricanes of the Late 1970’s............................................... 6 September 23, 1975 – Hurricane Eloise ...................................................................... 6 September 3, 1979 – Hurricane David ........................................................................ 6 September 13, 1979 – Hurricane Frederic.................................................................. 7 Chapter 4 – Two Hurricanes and Four Storms of the 1980’s........................................ 8 June 18, 1982 – No Name Storm.................................................................................. 8 November 21-24, 1984 – Thanksgiving Storm............................................................ 8 August 30-September 1, 1985 – Hurricane Elena ...................................................... 9 October 31, -
Corpus Christi Storm Surge Is an Abnormal Rise of Water Generated by a Storm, Over and Above the Predicted Inundation Astronomical Tides
About Hurricanes TEXAS DEPARTMENT OF PUBLIC SAFETY Hurricanes form over warm 5805 N LAMAR BLVD • BOX 4087 • AUSTIN, TEXAS 78773-0001 ocean waters, like those 512/424-2000 www.dps.texas.gov found in the Gulf of Mexico. The hurricane season starts June 1 and ends November STEVEN C. McCRAW COMMISSION DIRECTOR A. CYNTHIA LEON, CHAIR 30. The peak threat for DAVID G. BAKER MANNY FLORES ROBERT J. BODISCH, SR. FAITH JOHNSON the Texas coast exists from DEPUTY DIRECTORS STEVEN P. MACH RANDY WATSON August through September. Dear Colleagues: However, hurricanes can Hurricanes are deadly and destructive threats to communities along the Texas coastline. Along with high and have struck the Texas winds, tropical systems can produce immense storm surge, violent tornados, and dangerous flooding. coast during every month of the hurricane season. In order to help citizens prepare, the National Weather Service has once again collaborated with local nonprofit organizations and the Texas Department of Public Safety’s Division of Emergency Management to bring you the Official Texas Hurricane Guide. It is especially crucial for coastal residents to plan and prepare for each type of hurricane hazard to prevent and reduce the loss of life and property and improve community resilience. Above: High resolution satellite image of Hurricane Ike This guide is an up-to-date, easy-to-use resource that will help you and your family better understand what over the northwest Gulf of Mexico. Image--NASA to do before, during and after a storm. It will also assist your family with the preparation of a family emergency plan, checklists and a disaster supply kit. -
Hurricane & Tropical Storm
5.8 HURRICANE & TROPICAL STORM SECTION 5.8 HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM 5.8.1 HAZARD DESCRIPTION A tropical cyclone is a rotating, organized system of clouds and thunderstorms that originates over tropical or sub-tropical waters and has a closed low-level circulation. Tropical depressions, tropical storms, and hurricanes are all considered tropical cyclones. These storms rotate counterclockwise in the northern hemisphere around the center and are accompanied by heavy rain and strong winds (NOAA, 2013). Almost all tropical storms and hurricanes in the Atlantic basin (which includes the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean Sea) form between June 1 and November 30 (hurricane season). August and September are peak months for hurricane development. The average wind speeds for tropical storms and hurricanes are listed below: . A tropical depression has a maximum sustained wind speeds of 38 miles per hour (mph) or less . A tropical storm has maximum sustained wind speeds of 39 to 73 mph . A hurricane has maximum sustained wind speeds of 74 mph or higher. In the western North Pacific, hurricanes are called typhoons; similar storms in the Indian Ocean and South Pacific Ocean are called cyclones. A major hurricane has maximum sustained wind speeds of 111 mph or higher (NOAA, 2013). Over a two-year period, the United States coastline is struck by an average of three hurricanes, one of which is classified as a major hurricane. Hurricanes, tropical storms, and tropical depressions may pose a threat to life and property. These storms bring heavy rain, storm surge and flooding (NOAA, 2013). The cooler waters off the coast of New Jersey can serve to diminish the energy of storms that have traveled up the eastern seaboard. -
Azimuthally-Averaged Structure of Hurricane Edouard (2014) Just After Peak Intensity
Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 144: 1–5 (2018) Azimuthally-averaged structure of Hurricane Edouard (2014) just after peak intensity Roger K. Smitha∗, Michael T. Montgomeryb and Scott Braunc a Meteorological Institute, Ludwig Maximilians University of Munich, Munich, Germany b Dept. of Meteorology, Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, CA, USA c Laboratory for Mesoscale Atmospheric Processes, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Maryland, MD, USA ∗Correspondence to: Prof. Roger K. Smith, Meteorological Institute, Ludwig-Maximilians University of Munich, Theresienstr. 37, 80333 Munich, Germany. E-mail: [email protected] Analyses of dropsonde data collected in Hurricane Edouard (2014) just after its mature stage are presented. These data, have unprecedentedly high spatial resolution, based on 87 dropsondes released by the unmanned NASA Global Hawk from an altitude of 18 km during the Hurricane and Severe Storm Sentinel (HS3) field campaign. Attempts are made to relate the analyses of the data to theories of tropical cyclone structure and behaviour. The tangential wind and thermal fields show the classical structure of a warm core vortex, in this case with a secondary eyewall feature. The equivalent potential temperature (θe) field shows also the expected structure with a mid-tropospheric minimum at outer radii and contours of θe flaring upwards and outwards at inner radii and, with some imagination, roughly congruent to the surfaces of absolute angular momentum. However, details of the analysed radial velocity field are somewhat sensitive to the way in which the sonde data are partitioned to produce an azimuthal average. This sensitivity is compounded by an apparent limitation of the assumed steadiness of the storm over the period of data collection.