"Liquid" Sunshine State by Melissa Griffin, Assistant State Climatologist
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NOAA Technical Memorandum NWS HYDR0-20 STORM TIDE
NOAA Technical Memorandum NWS HYDR0-20 STORM TIDE FREQUENCY ANALYSIS FOR THE GULF COAST OF FLORIDA FROM CAPE SAN BLAS TO ST. PETERSBURG BEACH Francis P. Ho and Robert J. Tracey Office of Hydrology Silver Spring, Md. April 1975 UNITED STATES /NATIONAL OCEANIC AND / National Weather DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION Service Frederick B. Dent, Secretar1 Robert M. White, Administrator George P, Cressman, Director CONTENTS 1. Introduction. • • • • • • • 1 1.1 Objective and scope •• 1 1.2 Authorization •• 1 1.3 Study method •• 2 2. Summary of historical hurricanes •• 2 2.1 Hurricane tracks 2 2.2 Historical notes 3 3. Climatology of hurricane characteristics. 8 3.1 Frequency of hurricane tracks •••. 8 3.2 Probability distribution of hurricane intensity. 8 3.3 Probability distribution of radius of maximum winds. 9 3.4 Probability distribution of speed and direction of forward motion • . • • • • • • • • 9 4. Hurricane surge • • • • 9 4.1 Surge model ••• 9 4.2 Shoaling factor •• 10 5. Tide frequency analysis by joint probability method • 10 5.1 The joint probability method • 10 5.2 Astronomical tides •••••• 11 5.2.1 Reference datum •.•••• 11 Table 1. Tropical storm parameters - Clearwater, Fla 12 Table 2. Tropical storm parameters - Bayport, Fla •• 13 Table 3. Tropical storm parameters - Cedar Key, Fla. 14 Table 4. Tropical storm parameters- Rock ·Islands, Fla .. 15 Table 5. Tropical storm parameters - Carrabelle, Fla • 16 Table 6. Tropical storm parameters - Apalachicola, Fla 17 5.2.2 Astronomical tide • • • •.• 19 5.3 Prestorm water level ••••••. 19 5.4 Tide frequencies • • • • . • ••• 19 5.5 Adjustment along coast ••••••.•••.•••. 19 5.6 Comparison of frequency curves with observed tides and high-water marks • • • • • • • • • • • . -
Florida's Water Resources1
FE757 Florida’s Water Resources1 Tatiana Borisova and Tara Wade2 Introduction: Why Water Resources Are Important “Water is the lifeblood of our bodies, our economy, our nation and our well-being” (Stephen Lee Johnson, Head of EPA under G.W. Bush Administration). This quote sums up the importance of water resources. We use water for drinking, gardening, and other household uses, in agriculture (e.g., for irrigation), and in energy production and industrial processes (e.g., for cooling in thermoelectric power generation). Clean and plentiful water resources are also important for our recreational activities (e.g., boating, swimming, or fishing). Water also Figure 1. In November, manatees migrate to warmer coastal waters, sustains wildlife (such as manatees) and is an integral part such as Crystal River on the west coast of Florida (Source: UF/IFAS/ICS) of Florida’s environment (Figure 1). The use of water is increasing along with Florida’s of Florida’s water resources is a first step toward optimizing population. Floridians rely on underground freshwater current freshwater supply use and ensuring adequate water reserves, called aquifers, to supply our diverse water needs resources in the future. (USGS 2016a). In some Florida regions, this underground freshwater reserve can no longer sustain the growing water demands of the population, while also feeding Florida’s riv- Hydrologic Cycle: Where Water ers, springs, and lakes. With periodic droughts, shortages of Originates and Where It Goes freshwater may occur. Drought and water shortages in the Toni Morrison, an American novelist, once said that “all state have caused urban planners and policy makers to pay water has a perfect memory and is forever trying to get closer attention to water use, water supply development, back to where it was.” Indeed, water is constantly moving. -
Florida Hurricanes and Tropical Storms
FLORIDA HURRICANES AND TROPICAL STORMS 1871-1995: An Historical Survey Fred Doehring, Iver W. Duedall, and John M. Williams '+wcCopy~~ I~BN 0-912747-08-0 Florida SeaGrant College is supported by award of the Office of Sea Grant, NationalOceanic and Atmospheric Administration, U.S. Department of Commerce,grant number NA 36RG-0070, under provisions of the NationalSea Grant College and Programs Act of 1966. This information is published by the Sea Grant Extension Program which functionsas a coinponentof the Florida Cooperative Extension Service, John T. Woeste, Dean, in conducting Cooperative Extensionwork in Agriculture, Home Economics, and Marine Sciences,State of Florida, U.S. Departmentof Agriculture, U.S. Departmentof Commerce, and Boards of County Commissioners, cooperating.Printed and distributed in furtherance af the Actsof Congressof May 8 andJune 14, 1914.The Florida Sea Grant Collegeis an Equal Opportunity-AffirmativeAction employer authorizedto provide research, educational information and other servicesonly to individuals and institutions that function without regardto race,color, sex, age,handicap or nationalorigin. Coverphoto: Hank Brandli & Rob Downey LOANCOPY ONLY Florida Hurricanes and Tropical Storms 1871-1995: An Historical survey Fred Doehring, Iver W. Duedall, and John M. Williams Division of Marine and Environmental Systems, Florida Institute of Technology Melbourne, FL 32901 Technical Paper - 71 June 1994 $5.00 Copies may be obtained from: Florida Sea Grant College Program University of Florida Building 803 P.O. Box 110409 Gainesville, FL 32611-0409 904-392-2801 II Our friend andcolleague, Fred Doehringpictured below, died on January 5, 1993, before this manuscript was completed. Until his death, Fred had spent the last 18 months painstakingly researchingdata for this book. -
Local Mitigation Strategy
E LOCAL MITIGATION STRATEGY WALTON COUNTY 2020 Update Local Mitigation Strategy Table of Contents LOCAL MITIGATION STRATEGY TABLE OF CONTENTS 2 1.0 INTRODUCTION 7 1.1 PURPOSE OF THE LOCAL MITIGATION STRATEGY 8 1.2 BENEFITS 8 2.0 LMS PLANNING PROCESS 9 2.1 STRATEGY PREPARATION AND ORGANIZATION 10 2.2 PUBLIC INVOLVEMENT 11 2.3 COORDINATION WITH OTHER AGENCIES 12 2.4 PLANNING PROCESS 13 2.4.1 HAZARD IDENTIFICATION AND RISK ESTIMATION 13 2.4.2 VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT 13 2.4.3 DEVELOPING HAZARD MITIGATION INITIATIVES 14 2.4.4 DEVELOPING THE LOCAL MITIGATION ACTION PLAN 14 2.4.5 APPROVAL OF THE CURRENT EDITION OF THE STRATEGY 14 2.4.6 IMPLEMENTATION OF APPROVED MITIGATION INITIATIVES 14 3.0 HAZARD IDENTIFICATION AND RISK ASSESSMENT 15 3.1 COUNTY PROFILE 16 3.2 SUMMARY OF CHANGES 18 3.3 HAZARD IDENTIFICATION 19 3.3.1 FEDERAL DISASTER DECLARATIONS 20 3.3.2 NATIONAL CENTERS FOR ENVIRONMENTAL INFORMATION: STORM EVENTS DATA 21 3.4 VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT OVERVIEW 22 3.4.1 ASSETS, INFRASTRUCTURE, AND CRITICAL FACILITIES 22 3.4.2 CRITICAL FACILITIES 22 3.4.3 BUILDING DATA 23 3.4.4 HAZARD RANKING 24 3.5 HAZARD PROFILES 26 3.5.1 DAM FAILURE 26 DESCRIPTION 26 LOCATION 27 EXTENT 29 2 NOTE: * INDICATES THAT FDEP CLASSIFIES THESE DAMS AS HIGH HAZARD DAMS. N/A INDICATES THE INFORMATION WAS NOT AVAILABLE. 33 PREVIOUS OCCURRENCES 33 PROBABILITY OF FUTURE EVENTS 34 VULNERABILITY AND RISK ASSESSMENT 34 3.5.2 EPIDEMIC / PANDEMIC 36 DESCRIPTION 36 LOCATION AND EXTENT 37 PREVIOUS OCCURRENCES 38 PROBABILITY OF FUTURE EVENTS 39 VULNERABILITY AND RISK ASSESSMENT -
Vulnerability of the Suncoast Connector Toll Road Study Area to Future Storms and Sea Level Rise
Vulnerability of the Suncoast Connector Toll Road Study Area to Future Storms and Sea Level Rise Michael I. Volk, Belinda B. Nettles, Thomas S. Hoctor University of Florida April, 2020 Suncoast Connector Coastal Vulnerability Assessment 2 Abstract The Multi-use Corridors of Regional Economic Significance Program (M-CORES) authorizes the design and construction of three new toll road corridors through portions of Florida, including the proposed Suncoast Connector. This paper assesses the potential vulnerability of the Suncoast Connector study area and specifically the U.S. 19/U.S. 27/U.S. 98 corridor to coastal hazards including storms and sea level rise. The results of this analysis indicate that the study area and existing U.S. 19/U.S. 27/U.S. 98 corridor are not only currently at risk from flooding and coastal storms, but that sea level rise and climate change will significantly exacerbate these risks in the future. Findings include that at least 30 percent of the study area is already at risk from a Category 5 storm surge, with sea level rise projected to increase that risk even further. This region also provides one of the best opportunities for coastal biodiversity to functionally respond to increasing sea level rise, but a new major highway corridor along with the additional development that it facilitates will complicate biodiversity conservation and resiliency efforts. With these concerns in mind, it is critical to ensure that investment in new infrastructure, if pursued within the study area, is strategic and located in areas least vulnerable to impacts and repeat loss and least likely to conflict with efforts for facilitating the adaptation of regional natural systems to sea level rise and other related impacts. -
P1.28 a Digital Archive of Significant Florida Weather Events to Improve the Public’S Response to Future Warnings
P1.28 A Digital Archive of Significant Florida Weather Events to Improve the Public’s Response to Future Warnings Charles H. Paxton1,2, Jennifer M. Collins2, Kortnie J. Pugh1,2,3, and Jennifer L. Colson1 1. National Weather Service, Tampa Bay Florida 2. University of South Florida, Tampa, FL 3. National Marine Fisheries Service, St. Petersburg, FL I. Introduction other artifacts. These resources are of immense The past is our guide, our manual, it helps value not only to NOAA but also the American illuminate actions for the future. Through a NOAA people their true owners. Two frail leather-bound Preserve America Initiative grant obtained in U.S. Weather Bureau means books dating back to collaboration between the NWS (Tampa Bay 1890 needed rebinding. The office also has a region) and the University of South Florida (USF) wealth of other record books, older original two students were hired by NMFS Regional office weather maps depicting major events, news to work at the Tampa Bay Area NWS to document articles, and photos of major past events. historic weather events (Fig 1) and preserve weather relics. In an effort to save items of historical content, President Bush through his Preserve America executive order (E.O. 13287) called on NOAA and other federal agencies to inventory, preserve, and showcase federally- managed historic, cultural, or "heritage" resources and foster tourism in partnership with local communities. Fig. 2. Scanned weather photos. Many old weather artifacts from the past have been photographed and existing photographs of past weather events were scanned too (Fig. 2). When in electronic form, the pages of the books make accessible viewing on the Internet. -
Suncoast Weather Observer
Suncoast Weather Observer Summer 2010 Issue 1, Volume 15 Inside This Issue... NWS Forecasters Help Australia with Fire Weather Support Visibility Sensors to Shed Light for Marine Vessels Forecaster Spends a Month at the Southern Region Operations Center in Texas Busy 2010 So Far for Spanish Outreach CQ’s the Word! TARC and CERT Clubs Join NWS Outreach Efforts Decision Support Services Preparing the Public for the 2010 Hurricane Season Hurricane Climatology 2010 Hurricane Outlook SPECIAL FEATURE: So What Has Happened to the Summer Thunderstorms That You Can Usually Set Your Watch By? NWS Forecasters Help Australia with Fire Weather Support By: Rick Davis NWS TBW senior meteorologist and Incident Meteorologist (IMET) Rick Davis worked with the Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) in Melbourne, providing fire weather decision support services, to the State of Victoria, for the month of April 2010. He was part of a small group of NWS forecasters to do so during their active fire season. Typically, El Niño produces warmer and drier than normal summer conditions for Southeast Australia, and this was generally true this year as well. In Melbourne, a record number of days above 20 C (68 F) was set at 123 consecutive days ending April 11th, smashing the previous record, which helped make this the warmest summer on record, while rainfall was generally near normal. Fire Danger Ratings varied through the month but usually ranged from high to very high, then a cold weather outbreak brought cooler and more moist conditions with scattered rain for much of the state, reducing the fire danger ratings at the end of the month. -
Probable Maximum Precipitation East of the 105Th Meridian for Areas from 10 to 1,000 Square Miles and Durations of 6, 12, 24, and 48 Hours
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL REPORT NO. 41 Probable Maximum and TYA Precipitation over the Tennessee River Basin above Chattanooga u.s. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE WEATHER BUREAU Washington June 1965 HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL REPORTS (Nos. 6-22 NUlnbered Retroactively) *No. 1. Maximum possible precipitation over the Ompompanoosuc Basin above Union Village, Vt. 1943. *No. 2. Maximum possible precipitation over the Ohio River Basin above Pittsburgh, Pa. 1942. *No. 3. Maximum possible precipitation over the Sacramento Basin of California. 1943. *No. 4. Maximum possible precipitation over the Panama Canal Basin. 1943. *No. 5. Thunderstorm rainfall. 1947. *No. 6. A preliminary report on th,e probable occurrence of excessive precipitation over Fort Supply Basin, Okla. 1938. *No. 7. Worst probable meteorological condition on Mill Creek, Butler and Hamilton Counties, Ohio. 1937. (Unpub- lished.) Supplement, 1938. *No. 8. A hydrometeorological analysis of possible maximum precipitation over St. Francis River Basin above Wappa . pello, Mo. 1938. *No. 9. A report on the possible occurrence of maximum precipitation over White River Basin above Mud Mountain Dam site, Wash. 1939. *No. 10. Maximum possible rainfall over the Arkansas River Basin above Caddoa, Colo. 1939. Supplement, 1939. *No. 11. A preliminary report on the maximum possible precipitation over the Dorena, Cottage Grove, and Fern Ridge Basins in the Willamette Basin, Oreg. 1939. *No. 12. Maximum possible precipitation over the Red River Basin above Denison, Tex. 1939. *No. 13. A report on the maximum possible precipitation over Cherry Creek Basin in Colorado. 1940. *No. 14. The frequency of flood-producing rainfall over the Pajaro River Basin in California. 1940. *No. 15. A report on depth-frequency relations of thunderstorm rainfall on the Sevier Basin, Utah. -
Volume 1-3 North Central Florida Region Technical Data Report
Volume 1-3 North Central Florida Region Technical Data Report CHAPTER II REGIONAL HAZARDS ANALYSIS This page intentionally left blank. Statewide Regional Evacuation Studies Program Volume 1-3 North Central Florida Table of Contents CHAPTER II REGIONAL HAZARDS ANALYSIS .................................................................... 1 A. Hazards Identification and Risk Assessment ........................................................................ 1 1. Frequency of Occurrence .................................................................................................... 1 2. Vulnerability Factors ............................................................................................................ 1 3. Vulnerability Impact Areas .................................................................................................. 1 B. Coastal Storms and Hurricanes .............................................................................................. 5 1. Coastal Storm /Hurricane Hazard Profile .......................................................................... 5 2. Hurricane Hazards ................................................................................................................ 7 3. Storm Surge: The SLOSH Model ........................................................................................ 8 4. Hurricane Wind Analysis.................................................................................................... 17 5. Tornadoes .......................................................................................................................... -
Florida and Climate Change the Costs of Inaction
FLORIDA AND CLIMATE CHANGE THE COSTS OF INACTION ELIZABETH A. STANTON FRANK ACKERMAN Tufts University November 2007 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY n July 2007, Governor Charlie Crist established greenhouse gas emission targets for the state of Florida, including an 80 percent reduction below 1990 levels by 2050. Although achieving Ithis target will involve nontrivial expenditures, the failure to avert severe climate change would have even more severe consequences for Florida, in cold hard cash as well as human and ecolog - ical impacts. Arguments against strong action to combat climate change often implicitly assume that inac - tion would be cost-free — that we can chose a future without significant impacts from climate change even if emissions of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases continue to grow unchecked. But the overwhelming scientific consensus now holds that this rosy assumption is sim - ply wrong, and that the more greenhouse gases are released, the worse the consequences will be. The stakes are high, the risks of disastrous climate impacts are all too real, and waiting for more information is likely to mean waiting until it is too late to protect ourselves and our de - scendants. If a bad outcome is a real risk — and run-away greenhouse gas emissions lead to a very bad outcome indeed — isn’t it worth buying insurance against it? We buy fire insurance for our homes, even though any one family is statistically unlikely to have a fire next year. Young adults often buy life insurance, out of concern for their families, even though they are very unlikely to die next year. -
Hurricanes and Climate Change
Special Report: Hurricanes and Climate Change Judith Curry Climate Forecast Applications Network Version 2 4 September 2019 Contact information: Judith Curry, President Climate Forecast Applications Network Reno, NV 89519 404 803 2012 [email protected] http://www.cfanclimate.net 1 Hurricanes and Climate Change Judith Curry Climate Forecast Applications Network Executive summary . 4 1. Introduction . 5 2. Hurricane terminology, structure and mechanisms . 6 2.1 Hurricane processes 2.2 Factors contributing to landfall impacts 2.2.1 Wind damage 2.2.2 Storm surge 2.2.3 Rainfall 3. Historical variability and trends . 12 3.1 Global 3.2 Atlantic 3.3 Pacific 3.4 Conclusions 4. Detection and attribution . 26 4.1 Detection 4.2 Sources of variability and change 4.3 Natural multi-decadal climate modes 4.4 Attribution – models 4.5 Attribution – physical understanding 4.6 Conclusions 5. Landfalling hurricanes . 43 5.1 Continental U.S. 5.2 Caribbean 5.3 Global 5.4 Water – rainfall and storm surge 5.5 Hurricane size 5.6 Damage and losses 5.7 Conclusions 6. Attribution: recent U.S. landfalling hurricanes . 58 6.1 Detection and attribution of extreme weather events 6.2 Sandy 6.3 Harvey 6.4 Irma 6.5 Florence 6.6 Michael 6.7. Conclusions 2 7. 21st century projections . 66 7.1 Climate model projections 7.2 2100 – manmade climate change 7.3 2050 – decadal variability 7.3 Landfall impacts 8. Conclusions . 78 References . 80 3 Executive summary This Report assesses the scientific basis for projections of future hurricane activity. The Report evaluates the assessments and projections from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and recent national assessments regarding hurricanes. -
Climate-Sensitive Hazards in Florida
CLIMATE-SENSITIVE HAZARDS IN FLORIDA Identifying and Prioritizing Threats to Build Resilience against Climate Effects Christopher T. Emrich, Daniel P. Morath, Gregg C. Bowser, and Rachel Reeves, Hazards and Vulnerability Research Institute This report was produced under contract for the Florida Department of Health. This project was supported by an award from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (grant number U5UE1EH001047-02, Building Community Resilience in Florida through Adaptation and Mitigation). Its contents are solely the responsibility of the authors and do not necessarily represent the official views of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Page ii of xi TABLE OF CONTENTS Table of Contents ....................................................................................................................... iii List of Tables ............................................................................................................................. vi 1. Project Introduction ............................................................................................................. 1 Hurricane Storm Surge, Winds, and Rising Sea Level ............................................................ 8 Heat, Drought, and Wildfires ..................................................................................................10 Priority Climate-Sensitive Threats ..........................................................................................11 Bibliography ..........................................................................................................................13