Special Report: Hurricanes and Climate Change Judith Curry Climate Forecast Applications Network Version 2 4 September 2019 Contact information: Judith Curry, President Climate Forecast Applications Network Reno, NV 89519 404 803 2012
[email protected] http://www.cfanclimate.net 1 Hurricanes and Climate Change Judith Curry Climate Forecast Applications Network Executive summary . 4 1. Introduction . 5 2. Hurricane terminology, structure and mechanisms . 6 2.1 Hurricane processes 2.2 Factors contributing to landfall impacts 2.2.1 Wind damage 2.2.2 Storm surge 2.2.3 Rainfall 3. Historical variability and trends . 12 3.1 Global 3.2 Atlantic 3.3 Pacific 3.4 Conclusions 4. Detection and attribution . 26 4.1 Detection 4.2 Sources of variability and change 4.3 Natural multi-decadal climate modes 4.4 Attribution – models 4.5 Attribution – physical understanding 4.6 Conclusions 5. Landfalling hurricanes . 43 5.1 Continental U.S. 5.2 Caribbean 5.3 Global 5.4 Water – rainfall and storm surge 5.5 Hurricane size 5.6 Damage and losses 5.7 Conclusions 6. Attribution: recent U.S. landfalling hurricanes . 58 6.1 Detection and attribution of extreme weather events 6.2 Sandy 6.3 Harvey 6.4 Irma 6.5 Florence 6.6 Michael 6.7. Conclusions 2 7. 21st century projections . 66 7.1 Climate model projections 7.2 2100 – manmade climate change 7.3 2050 – decadal variability 7.3 Landfall impacts 8. Conclusions . 78 References . 80 3 Executive summary This Report assesses the scientific basis for projections of future hurricane activity. The Report evaluates the assessments and projections from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and recent national assessments regarding hurricanes.