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Past and Projected Trends in Climate and Sea Level for South Florida

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Past and Projected Trends in Climate and Sea Level for South Florida PPaasstt aanndd PPrroojjeecctteedd TTrreennddss iinn CClliimmaattee aanndd SSeeaa LLeevveell ffoorr SSoouutthh FFlloorriiddaa Photo courtesy of National Aeronautics and Space Administration Hydrologic and Environmental Systems Modeling Technical Report July 2011 PAST AND PROJECTED TRENDS IN CLIMATE AND SEA LEVEL FOR SOUTH FLORIDA July 5, 2011 Team Members: J. Obeysekera J. Park M. Irizarry-Ortiz P. Trimble J. Barnes J. VanArman W. Said E. Gadzinski Hydrologic and Environmental Systems Modeling South Florida Water Management District 3301 Gun Club Road West Palm Beach, Florida Contents PAST AND PROJECTED TRENDS IN CLIMATE AND SEA LEVEL FOR SOUTH FLORIDA Table of Contents List of Figures ........................................................................................................... v List of Tables ............................................................................................................ x Acknowledgments ................................................................................................. xii Recommended Citation ....................................................................................... xiii List of Acronyms and Abbreviations ................................................................. xiv Executive Summary ............................................................................................ xvii PAST AND PROJECTED TRENDS IN CLIMATE AND SEA LEVEL FOR SOUTH FLORIDA ........................................................................................ 1 I. Introduction .................................................................................................... 1 II. Modes of Natural Variability that Influence Florida’s Climate ............... 5 El Niño Southern Oscillation ...................................................................................................... 6 Pacific Decadal Oscillation ......................................................................................................... 9 Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation ............................................................................................ 12 North Atlantic Oscillation ......................................................................................................... 14 Variations of Solar Activity ...................................................................................................... 15 III. Historical Trends in Florida Temperature and Precipitation .................... 19 Introduction ............................................................................................................................... 19 Previous Studies ........................................................................................................................ 20 Temperature Trends .............................................................................................................. 20 Precipitation Trends .............................................................................................................. 22 iii Technical Report July 5, 2011 Trends in Climate and Sea Level Rise for South Florida Data ........................................................................................................................................... 23 Methods..................................................................................................................................... 26 Mann-Kendall Trend Test and Sen-Theil Regression .......................................................... 26 Trends in Extremes Based on the GEV Distribution ............................................................ 29 Results and Discussion ............................................................................................................. 30 Precipitation .......................................................................................................................... 36 Temperature .......................................................................................................................... 39 Conclusions ............................................................................................................................... 52 IV. Climate Projections ......................................................................................... 55 Introduction ............................................................................................................................... 55 General Circulation Models ...................................................................................................... 55 Precipitation .......................................................................................................................... 58 Temperature .......................................................................................................................... 61 GCM projections ................................................................................................................... 63 Regional Climate Models ......................................................................................................... 66 Validation of Statistically Downscaled Climate Data .......................................................... 66 Projections of Statistically Downscaled Data ....................................................................... 71 Dynamically Downscaled Climate Data ................................................................................... 79 Data and Methods ................................................................................................................. 80 NARCCAP Model Validation and Projections ..................................................................... 82 Projections............................................................................................................................. 90 Summary ................................................................................................................................... 91 V. Sea Level Rise and Extremes ...................................................................... 93 Introduction ............................................................................................................................... 93 Sea Level Rise Components ..................................................................................................... 94 Historic Sea Level and Projections ........................................................................................... 95 IPCC Projections ................................................................................................................... 96 Government and Working Group Projections ...................................................................... 97 Recent Scientific Literature Projections ............................................................................... 99 iv Technical Report July 5, 2011 Contents Extreme Events in South Florida ............................................................................................ 100 Climate Links to Extreme Events ........................................................................................... 102 AMO Relation to Florida Storm Surge ............................................................................... 102 Analysis............................................................................................................................... 109 Projection of Extreme Events ................................................................................................. 109 Historical Storm Surge Distributions .................................................................................. 110 Surge Projections ................................................................................................................ 112 Analysis............................................................................................................................... 117 Coastal Structure Vulnerability ............................................................................................... 117 Saltwater Intrusion Vulnerability ............................................................................................ 121 Decision Support ..................................................................................................................... 121 Economics ............................................................................................................................... 122 Conclusion – Sea Level Rise .................................................................................................. 123 VI. Water Resources Management Impacts ..................................................127 Simulated Response to Precipitation and Temperature Changes ........................................... 127 Simulated Response to Sea Level Rise ................................................................................... 131 VII. Conclusions and Recommendations ........................................................133 Natural Variability .................................................................................................................. 133 Temperature and Precipitation ................................................................................................ 134 Climate Projections ................................................................................................................. 134 Sea Level Rise ........................................................................................................................
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