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Section 2: Observational Evidence of Climate Change

Learning outcomes

• how temperature, precipitation are measured • how global averages are calculated • evidence for recent climate change within the climate system • temperature, precipitation, sea level rise, cryosphere, extreme events

GEOG 313/513

Global Climate Change Fall 20161 Prof J. Hicke

Weather stations

weather.usu.edu/htm/observatory-diagram www.inmtn.com/weather-station-installation.html

Global Climate Change 2 Prof J. Hicke

Global Historical Climatology Network stations

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Global Historical Climatology Network stations

>3800 stations with records >50 years 1600 stations with records >100 years 226 stations with records >150 years

longest: Berlin, begun in 1701 (so >300 years)

Global Climate Change 4 Prof J. Hicke

wind Radiosondes speed, direction

air temperature National Weather Service Altitude (log pressure)

dew point temperature

NOAA Temperature Global Climate Change 5 funnel.sfsu.edu Prof J. Hicke

Atmospheric temperature from satellites

Microwave sounding unit TIROS Operational Vertical Sounds (TOVS)

NOAA

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Satellite_temperature_measurements Global Climate Change 6 Prof J. Hicke

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Warming in atmosphere

Global Climate Change en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Satellite_temperature_measurements7 Prof J. Hicke

Three estimates of surface temperature trends

Global Climate Change IPCC AR 5, WG I, 8 2013 Prof J. Hicke

Most current global mean T from NASA GISS

2015

Global Climate Change 9 Prof J. Hicke

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Bear in mind the distribution of stations

certainty depends on spatial location

more certain at global scale Global Climate Change 10 Prof J. Hicke

Precipitation gauges

simple rain gauge heated, shielded precipitation gauge

weather.uwaterloo.ca/info.html upr.org

Global Climate Change 11 Prof J. Hicke

SNOw TELemetry (SNOTEL) gauges

www.nrcs.usda.gov/wps/portal/nrcs/detail/id/snow/?cid=nrcs144p2_047776 Global Climate Change 12 Prof J. Hicke

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Precipitation trends are highly variable

Global Climate Change IPCC AR 5, WG I, 13 2013 Prof J. Hicke

Changes in the ocean

IPCC AR5 WG I, 2013

Global Climate Change 14 Prof J. Hicke

Sea level over millions of years

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Sea level rise over thousands of years

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Sea level rise over tens of years

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Sea level rise

satellites

tide gauges

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Causes of sea level rise

also: groundwater pumping

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Local sea level rise

tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/sltrends/index.shtml Global Climate Change 20 Prof J. Hicke

Declines in sea ice extent

Global Climate Change 21 Prof J. Hicke

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Declines in sea ice extent

ships, buoys, aircraft satellites

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Reduction in minimum sea ice extent in 2012

49% of 1979-2000 average

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2016 sea ice extent

Global Climate Change 24 Prof J. Hicke

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Models underpredict melt

Global Climate Change 25 Prof J. Hicke

Declines in sea ice thickness (volume)

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Ice sheet instability https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W2pYHMx5bN8

Global Climate Change 27 Prof J. Hicke

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Jakobshavn Glacier recession on Greenland

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Greenland Ice Sheet melting

increasing number of summer melt days

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Permafrost and carbon storage

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Melting permafrost forming lakes/ponds

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Melting permafrost generates methane

methane trapped under lake ice

Photo by Todd Paris, AP

Global Climate Change 32 Prof J. Hicke

Melting permafrost felling trees

news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2014/04/140417-drunken-trees-melting-permafrost-global-warming-science/ PHOTOGRAPH BY ASHLEY COOPER, CORBIS Global Climate Change 33 Prof J. Hicke

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Global mountain glacier area change

advance retreat

Kitchen, 2013 © 2014 Pearson Education, Inc. Global Climate Change 34 Prof J. Hicke

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Retreat_of_glaciers_since_1850 Global Climate Change 35 Prof J. Hicke

Upsala Glacier, Patagonia, retreat 1924

2004

Kitchen, 2013 © 2014 Pearson Education, Inc. Global Climate Change 36 Prof J. Hicke

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Glaciers in Glacier National Park

Global Climate Change 37 Prof J. Hicke

Glacier retreat in western US

glacier locations %lost since 1990

McCabe and Fountain, 2013

Global Climate Change 38 Prof J. Hicke

Impacts to snow, streamflow

EPA

Global Climate Change 39 Prof J. Hicke

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Impacts to snow, streamflow

USGCRP, Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States, 2009 Global Climate Change 40 Prof J. Hicke

IPCC AR 5, WG I, 2013 Global Climate Change 41 Prof J. Hicke

Changes in extreme events

Kitchen, 2013 © 2014 Pearson Education, Inc.

IPCC 2013 WGI report Global Climate Change 42 Prof J. Hicke

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Decrease in cold events, increase in warm events

trend: days/decade

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Global Climate Change Coumou and Rahmstorf, Nature Climate Change, 201244 Prof J. Hicke

European heat waves

2003: 70,000 deaths

2010: 55,000 “It is very likely that several of the deaths unprecedented extremes of the past decade would not have occurred without anthropogenic global warming.”

(relative to 1970-1999)

95th percentile temperature events (smoothed)

Global Climate Change 45 Coumou and Rahmstorf, Nature Climate Change, 2012Prof J. Hicke

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Anomalous warming in March 2012

Kitchen, 2013 © 2014 Pearson Education, Inc. Global Climate Change 46 Prof J. Hicke

Global Change-Type Drought in US Southwest Warming: higher evapotranspiration • Southwest Climate • bark beetles 2000s 13drought 58 Temperature Precipitation

12 57 1950s drought

11 56

55 10 Average Precip (In) Precip Average

54 9 Average Annual Temperature (Fareinheit)

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8 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 Breshears et al. PNAS, October 18, 2005, vol. 102, no. 42, 15144-15148, and graphic from Neil Cobb Global Climate Change 47 Prof J. Hicke

Drought: Pinyon pine dieoff in Southwest in 2000s

Breshears et al., 2011

Global Climate Change 48 Prof J. Hicke

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Increases, decreases in very wet days

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Changes in extreme precipitation events

Historical observations

National Climate Assessment, Chapter 2, 2014 Global Climate Change 50 Prof J. Hicke

Hurricane patterns are variable in time

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Hurricane patterns are variable in space

National Climate Assessment, Chapter 2, 2014

Global Climate Change 52 Prof J. Hicke

Trends in winter storms in the US

National Climate Assessment, Chapter 2, 2014

Global Climate Change 53 Prof J. Hicke

Observed evidence is consistent with warming

IPCC 2013 WGI report

Global Climate Change 54 Prof J. Hicke

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