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Section 2: Observational Evidence of Climate Change Weather Stations Global Historical Climatology Network Stations

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Section 2: Observational Evidence of Climate Change Weather Stations Global Historical Climatology Network Stations 8/31/16 Section 2: Observational Evidence of Climate Change Learning outcomes • how temperature, precipitation are measured • how global averages are calculated • evidence for recent climate change within the climate system • temperature, precipitation, sea level rise, cryosphere, extreme events GEOG 313/513 Global Climate Change Fall 20161 Prof J. Hicke Weather stations weather.usu.edu/htm/observatory-diagram www.inmtn.com/weather-station-installation.html Global Climate Change 2 Prof J. Hicke Global Historical Climatology Network stations Kitchen, 2013 © 2014 Pearson Education, Inc. Global Climate Change 3 Prof J. Hicke 1 8/31/16 Global Historical Climatology Network stations >3800 stations with records >50 years 1600 stations with records >100 years 226 stations with records >150 years longest: Berlin, begun in 1701 (so >300 years) Global Climate Change 4 Prof J. Hicke wind Radiosondes speed, direction air temperature National Weather Service Altitude (log pressure) dew point temperature NOAA Temperature Global Climate Change 5 funnel.sfsu.edu Prof J. Hicke Atmospheric temperature from satellites Microwave sounding unit TIROS Operational Vertical Sounds (TOVS) NOAA en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Satellite_temperature_measurements Global Climate Change 6 Prof J. Hicke 2 8/31/16 Warming in atmosphere Global Climate Change en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Satellite_temperature_measurements7 Prof J. Hicke Three estimates of surface temperature trends Global Climate Change IPCC AR 5, WG I, 8 2013 Prof J. Hicke Most current global mean T from NASA GISS 2015 Global Climate Change 9 Prof J. Hicke 3 8/31/16 Bear in mind the distribution of stations certainty depends on spatial location more certain at global scale Global Climate Change 10 Prof J. Hicke Precipitation gauges simple rain gauge heated, shielded precipitation gauge weather.uwaterloo.ca/info.html upr.org Global Climate Change 11 Prof J. Hicke SNOw TELemetry (SNOTEL) gauges www.nrcs.usda.gov/wps/portal/nrcs/detail/id/snow/?cid=nrcs144p2_047776 Global Climate Change 12 Prof J. Hicke 4 8/31/16 Precipitation trends are highly variable Global Climate Change IPCC AR 5, WG I, 13 2013 Prof J. Hicke Changes in the ocean IPCC AR5 WG I, 2013 Global Climate Change 14 Prof J. Hicke Sea level over millions of years Kitchen, 2013 © 2014 Pearson Education, Inc. Global Climate Change 15 Prof J. Hicke 5 8/31/16 Sea level rise over thousands of years Kitchen, 2013 © 2014 Pearson Education, Inc. Global Climate Change 16 Prof J. Hicke Sea level rise over tens of years Kitchen, 2013 © 2014 Pearson Education, Inc. Global Climate Change 17 Prof J. Hicke Sea level rise satellites tide gauges Kitchen, 2013 © 2014 Pearson Education, Inc. Global Climate Change 18 Prof J. Hicke 6 8/31/16 Causes of sea level rise also: groundwater pumping Kitchen, 2013 © 2014 Pearson Education, Inc. Global Climate Change 19 Prof J. Hicke Local sea level rise tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/sltrends/index.shtml Global Climate Change 20 Prof J. Hicke Declines in sea ice extent Global Climate Change 21 Prof J. Hicke 7 8/31/16 Declines in sea ice extent ships, buoys, aircraft satellites Kitchen, 2013 © 2014 Pearson Education, Inc. Global Climate Change 22 Prof J. Hicke Reduction in minimum sea ice extent in 2012 49% of 1979-2000 average Kitchen, 2013 © 2014 Pearson Education, Inc. Global Climate Change 23 Prof J. Hicke 2016 sea ice extent Global Climate Change 24 Prof J. Hicke 8 8/31/16 Models underpredict melt Global Climate Change 25 Prof J. Hicke Declines in sea ice thickness (volume) Kitchen, 2013 © 2014 Pearson Education, Inc. Global Climate Change 26 Prof J. Hicke Ice sheet instability https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W2pYHMx5bN8 Global Climate Change 27 Prof J. Hicke 9 8/31/16 Jakobshavn Glacier recession on Greenland Kitchen, 2013 © 2014 Pearson Education, Inc. Global Climate Change 28 Prof J. Hicke Greenland Ice Sheet melting increasing number of summer melt days Kitchen, 2013 © 2014 Pearson Education, Inc. Global Climate Change 29 Prof J. Hicke Permafrost and carbon storage Kitchen, 2013 © 2014 Pearson Education, Inc. Global Climate Change 30 Prof J. Hicke 10 8/31/16 Melting permafrost forming lakes/ponds Kitchen, 2013 © 2014 Pearson Education, Inc. Global Climate Change 31 Prof J. Hicke Melting permafrost generates methane methane trapped under lake ice Photo by Todd Paris, AP Global Climate Change 32 Prof J. Hicke Melting permafrost felling trees news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2014/04/140417-drunken-trees-melting-permafrost-global-warming-science/ PHOTOGRAPH BY ASHLEY COOPER, CORBIS Global Climate Change 33 Prof J. Hicke 11 8/31/16 Global mountain glacier area change advance retreat Kitchen, 2013 © 2014 Pearson Education, Inc. Global Climate Change 34 Prof J. Hicke en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Retreat_of_glaciers_since_1850 Global Climate Change 35 Prof J. Hicke Upsala Glacier, Patagonia, retreat 1924 2004 Kitchen, 2013 © 2014 Pearson Education, Inc. Global Climate Change 36 Prof J. Hicke 12 8/31/16 Glaciers in Glacier National Park Global Climate Change 37 Prof J. Hicke Glacier retreat in western US glacier locations %lost since 1990 McCabe and Fountain, 2013 Global Climate Change 38 Prof J. Hicke Impacts to snow, streamflow EPA Global Climate Change 39 Prof J. Hicke 13 8/31/16 Impacts to snow, streamflow USGCRP, Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States, 2009 Global Climate Change 40 Prof J. Hicke IPCC AR 5, WG I, 2013 Global Climate Change 41 Prof J. Hicke Changes in extreme events Kitchen, 2013 © 2014 Pearson Education, Inc. IPCC 2013 WGI report Global Climate Change 42 Prof J. Hicke 14 8/31/16 Decrease in cold events, increase in warm events trend: days/decade Kitchen, 2013 © 2014 Pearson Education, Inc. Global Climate Change 43 Prof J. Hicke Global Climate Change Coumou and Rahmstorf, Nature Climate Change, 201244 Prof J. Hicke European heat waves 2003: 70,000 deaths 2010: 55,000 “It is very likely that several of the deaths unprecedented extremes of the past decade would not have occurred without anthropogenic global warming.” (relative to 1970-1999) 95th percentile temperature events (smoothed) Global Climate Change 45 Coumou and Rahmstorf, Nature Climate Change, 2012Prof J. Hicke 15 8/31/16 Anomalous warming in March 2012 Kitchen, 2013 © 2014 Pearson Education, Inc. Global Climate Change 46 Prof J. Hicke Global Change-Type Drought in US Southwest Warming: higher evapotranspiration • Southwest Climate • bark beetles 2000s 13drought 58 Temperature Precipitation 12 57 1950s drought 11 56 55 10 Average Precip (In) Precip Average 54 9 Average Annual Temperature (Fareinheit) 53 8 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 Breshears et al. PNAS, October 18, 2005, vol. 102, no. 42, 15144-15148, and graphic from Neil Cobb Global Climate Change 47 Prof J. Hicke Drought: Pinyon pine dieoff in Southwest in 2000s Breshears et al., 2011 Global Climate Change 48 Prof J. Hicke 16 8/31/16 Increases, decreases in very wet days Kitchen, 2013 © 2014 Pearson Education, Inc. Global Climate Change 49 Prof J. Hicke Changes in extreme precipitation events Historical observations National Climate Assessment, Chapter 2, 2014 Global Climate Change 50 Prof J. Hicke Hurricane patterns are variable in time Kitchen, 2013 © 2014 Pearson Education, Inc. Global Climate Change 51 Prof J. Hicke 17 8/31/16 Hurricane patterns are variable in space National Climate Assessment, Chapter 2, 2014 Global Climate Change 52 Prof J. Hicke Trends in winter storms in the US National Climate Assessment, Chapter 2, 2014 Global Climate Change 53 Prof J. Hicke Observed evidence is consistent with warming IPCC 2013 WGI report Global Climate Change 54 Prof J. Hicke 18.
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