DOCSLIB.ORG

Relationships Between Forests and Weather

Total Page：16

File Type：pdf, Size：1020Kb

Download full-text PDF Read full-text
Relationships Between Forests and Weather Relationships between forests and weather EC Directorate General of the Environment 13th January 2012 Michael Sanderson, Monia Santini, Riccardo Valentini and Edward Pope A1_D1_Lit_Review.doc - 1 – © Crown copyright 2008 Contents Executive Summary ........................................................................................................ 3 1. Introduction ................................................................................................................. 5 1.1 What is a Forest? .................................................................................................... 5 1.2 Types of Forest ........................................................................................................ 5 2. Mechanisms by which forests influence weather and climate ............................... 6 2.1 Overview .................................................................................................................. 6 2.2 Boreal Forests ......................................................................................................... 8 2.3 Temperate Forests .................................................................................................. 9 2.4 Tropical Forests ..................................................................................................... 11 2.5 Overview of the representation of forest-weather interactions and feedbacks in climate models ............................................................................................................. 12 3. Impacts of changes in forest cover on climate ...................................................... 15 3.1 Physical Effects ..................................................................................................... 15 3.1.1 Impacts of deforestation on remaining forest and climate .............................. 16 3.1.2 Impacts of afforestation in a semiarid region .................................................. 16 3.1.3 Cloud Cover .................................................................................................... 17 3.1.4 Aerodynamic Effects ....................................................................................... 17 3.1.5 Effects on local precipitation ........................................................................... 18 3.2 Chemical and Aerosol Effects ............................................................................... 19 3.2.1 Effects of changing levels of carbon dioxide (CO2) ......................................... 20 3.2.2 Hydrocarbon production and emission ........................................................... 20 3.2.3 Forest Fires ..................................................................................................... 22 3.3 Climate Change ..................................................................................................... 23 3.3.1 Boreal Forests ................................................................................................. 24 3.3.2 Temperate Forests .......................................................................................... 25 3.3.3 Tropical Forests .............................................................................................. 26 3.3.4 Summary ......................................................................................................... 27 4. Regional Impacts of Deforestation and Afforestation ........................................... 28 4.1 Boreal Deforestation and Afforestation .................................................................. 28 4.2 Tropical Deforestation and Afforestation ............................................................... 30 4.3 Temperate Deforestation and Afforestation ........................................................... 34 4.4 Focus on Mediterranean Deforestation and Afforestation ..................................... 36 5. The “biotic pump” hypothesis ................................................................................. 38 6. Summary .................................................................................................................... 39 7. Main drivers of and processes involved in forest – weather relationships ......... 40 1 © Crown copyright 2010 8. Barriers and Knowledge Gaps ................................................................................. 42 9. Bibliography .............................................................................................................. 45 2 © Crown copyright 2010 Executive Summary 1. The main mechanisms by which forests modify weather have been identified. They are the surface albedo, transpiration and evaporation of water vapour, aerodynamic effects, and emission of hydrocarbons whose oxidation can form aerosol particles. 2. Different mechanisms are dominant for each class of forest. Boreal forests affect local weather and climate via their low albedos, causing a local warming. Temperate forests modify weather via the albedo and transpiration of moisture, but their exact impacts on climate are the least certain. Tropical forests cool climate via their very high transpiration rates; the moisture transferred to the atmosphere forms large clouds which reflect incoming solar energy and cause a further cooling. 3. Forests have a cooling impact on global climate via the uptake of carbon dioxide. Deforestation releases the carbon back to the atmosphere causing a warming. Tropical forests absorb the largest amounts of carbon dioxide. 4. Although the main mechanisms by which forests modify climate are known, feedbacks between these mechanisms and the local climate are less well understood. These feedbacks often occur on small spatial scales which cannot be resolved by climate models, and have only been studied over limited areas with very high resolution (mesoscale) models. 5. Many modelling studies have been published in the scientific literature to assess the potential impacts of deforestation and afforestation. In boreal regions, afforestation would cause a local warming but deforestation would cause a cooling. The impacts in temperate regions are unclear, with poor agreement between the various studies, which are caused by the simulated response by different models to deforestation, the way in which physiological processes of forests and other vegetation are represented in the models, and the numbers and types of vegetation that are modelled. Other reasons include differences in modelled soil moisture amounts. Deforestation in tropical regions would produce a drier climate which may be impossible to reforest. 3 © Crown copyright 2010 6. Rainfall in some regions could be enhanced if areas cleared for crops are intermingled with remaining forest. Small-scale circulations can occur which form convective clouds and rainfall above the deforested areas. 7. Feedbacks between the ocean circulation and climate appear to be important in south-east Asia following deforestation, but model results do not agree on the sign of changes in circulation and rainfall. 8. Climate change will impact on forests and climate, but the exact effects are unclear in many regions owing to poor agreement between global climate model projections of future climate, especially changes in rainfall and atmospheric circulation. 4 © Crown copyright 2010 1. Introduction This report has two main objectives. First, to review the current understanding of relationships between forests and weather worldwide, and highlight how they relate to Europe. Secondly, to synthesize current understanding of the main drivers of forest- weather relationships, the processes through which these interactions occur, and the factors that may threaten them. 1.1 What is a Forest? There is no universal definition of what constitutes a forest. The Food and Agriculture Organisation of the United Nations (FAO) defines a forest as: “….a minimum area of land of 0.05-1.0 hectares with tree crown cover (or equivalent stocking level) of more than 10-30 per cent with trees with the potential to reach a minimum height of 2-5 metres at maturity in situ. A forest may consist of closed forest formations where trees of various storeys and undergrowth cover a high proportion of the ground or open forest. Young natural stands and all plantations which have yet to reach a crown density of 10-30 per cent or tree height of 2-5 meters are included under forest, as are areas normally forming part of the forest area which are temporarily unstocked as a result of human intervention such as harvesting or natural causes but which are expected to revert to forest.” (Food and Agriculture Organisation, 2006). 1.2 Types of Forest Forests may be divided into three main groups; boreal forests, temperate forests and tropical rain forests. These three groups are described briefly below. Boreal forests are the largest terrestrial biome and are also known as taiga. They occur between latitudes of 45°N and 70°N, with the majority (approximately 67%) located in Eurasia and the remainder in Canada and Alaska (Soja et al., 2007). The forest is predominantly coniferous and is quite dense at lower latitudes. In the north of this region 5 © Crown copyright 2010 the forest becomes sparser as it shifts to a tundra ecosystem. In far eastern Siberia the forests are dominated by Larch which is deciduous, and drops its needles in winter. Temperate forests exist in many regions of the Earth, in eastern North America, northeastern Asia, western and central Europe, and parts of China. Large areas of temperate forests
Load more

Recommended publications
  • The Conversion of a Climate-Change Skeptic - the New York Times
    12/11/2017 The Conversion of a Climate-Change Skeptic - The New York Times https://nyti.ms/Ouq7Yv Opinion | OP-ED CONTRIBUTOR The Conversion of a Climate-Change Skeptic By RICHARD A. MULLER JULY 28, 2012 Berkeley, Calif. CALL me a converted skeptic. Three years ago I identified problems in previous climate studies that, in my mind, threw doubt on the very existence of global warming. Last year, following an intensive research effort involving a dozen scientists, I concluded that global warming was real and that the prior estimates of the rate of warming were correct. I’m now going a step further: Humans are almost entirely the cause. My total turnaround, in such a short time, is the result of careful and objective analysis by the Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature project, which I founded with my daughter Elizabeth. Our results show that the average temperature of the earth’s land has risen by two and a half degrees Fahrenheit over the past 250 years, including an increase of one and a half degrees over the most recent 50 years. Moreover, it appears likely that essentially all of this increase results from the human emission of greenhouse gases. These findings are stronger than those of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the United Nations group that defines the scientific and diplomatic consensus on global warming. In its 2007 report, the I.P.C.C. concluded only that most of the warming of the prior 50 years could be attributed to humans. It was possible, according to the I.P.C.C.
    [Show full text]
  • Logging Songs of the Pacific Northwest: a Study of Three Contemporary Artists Leslie A
    Florida State University Libraries Electronic Theses, Treatises and Dissertations The Graduate School 2007 Logging Songs of the Pacific Northwest: A Study of Three Contemporary Artists Leslie A. Johnson Follow this and additional works at the FSU Digital Library. For more information, please contact [email protected] THE FLORIDA STATE UNIVERSITY COLLEGE OF MUSIC LOGGING SONGS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST: A STUDY OF THREE CONTEMPORARY ARTISTS By LESLIE A. JOHNSON A Thesis submitted to the College of Music in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Music Degree Awarded: Spring Semester, 2007 The members of the Committee approve the Thesis of Leslie A. Johnson defended on March 28, 2007. _____________________________ Charles E. Brewer Professor Directing Thesis _____________________________ Denise Von Glahn Committee Member ` _____________________________ Karyl Louwenaar-Lueck Committee Member The Office of Graduate Studies has verified and approved the above named committee members. ii ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS I would like to thank those who have helped me with this manuscript and my academic career: my parents, grandparents, other family members and friends for their support; a handful of really good teachers from every educational and professional venture thus far, including my committee members at The Florida State University; a variety of resources for the project, including Dr. Jens Lund from Olympia, Washington; and the subjects themselves and their associates. iii TABLE OF CONTENTS ABSTRACT .................................................................................................................
    [Show full text]
  • Climate Change: Examining the Processes Used to Create Science and Policy, Hearing
    CLIMATE CHANGE: EXAMINING THE PROCESSES USED TO CREATE SCIENCE AND POLICY HEARING BEFORE THE COMMITTEE ON SCIENCE, SPACE, AND TECHNOLOGY HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES ONE HUNDRED TWELFTH CONGRESS FIRST SESSION THURSDAY, MARCH 31, 2011 Serial No. 112–09 Printed for the use of the Committee on Science, Space, and Technology ( Available via the World Wide Web: http://science.house.gov U.S. GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE 65–306PDF WASHINGTON : 2011 For sale by the Superintendent of Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office Internet: bookstore.gpo.gov Phone: toll free (866) 512–1800; DC area (202) 512–1800 Fax: (202) 512–2104 Mail: Stop IDCC, Washington, DC 20402–0001 COMMITTEE ON SCIENCE, SPACE, AND TECHNOLOGY HON. RALPH M. HALL, Texas, Chair F. JAMES SENSENBRENNER, JR., EDDIE BERNICE JOHNSON, Texas Wisconsin JERRY F. COSTELLO, Illinois LAMAR S. SMITH, Texas LYNN C. WOOLSEY, California DANA ROHRABACHER, California ZOE LOFGREN, California ROSCOE G. BARTLETT, Maryland DAVID WU, Oregon FRANK D. LUCAS, Oklahoma BRAD MILLER, North Carolina JUDY BIGGERT, Illinois DANIEL LIPINSKI, Illinois W. TODD AKIN, Missouri GABRIELLE GIFFORDS, Arizona RANDY NEUGEBAUER, Texas DONNA F. EDWARDS, Maryland MICHAEL T. MCCAUL, Texas MARCIA L. FUDGE, Ohio PAUL C. BROUN, Georgia BEN R. LUJA´ N, New Mexico SANDY ADAMS, Florida PAUL D. TONKO, New York BENJAMIN QUAYLE, Arizona JERRY MCNERNEY, California CHARLES J. ‘‘CHUCK’’ FLEISCHMANN, JOHN P. SARBANES, Maryland Tennessee TERRI A. SEWELL, Alabama E. SCOTT RIGELL, Virginia FREDERICA S. WILSON, Florida STEVEN M. PALAZZO, Mississippi HANSEN CLARKE, Michigan MO BROOKS, Alabama ANDY HARRIS, Maryland RANDY HULTGREN, Illinois CHIP CRAVAACK, Minnesota LARRY BUCSHON, Indiana DAN BENISHEK, Michigan VACANCY (II) C O N T E N T S Thursday, March 31, 2011 Page Witness List ............................................................................................................
    [Show full text]
  • Volume 2: Issues Raised by Petitioners on EPA's Use of IPCC
    EPA’s Response to the Petitions to Reconsider the Endangerment and Cause or Contribute Findings for Greenhouse Gases under Section 202(a) of the Clean Air Act Volume 2: Issues Raised by Petitioners on EPA’s Use of IPCC U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Office of Atmospheric Programs Climate Change Division Washington, D.C. 1 TABLE OF CONTENTS Page 2.0 Issues Raised by Petitioners on EPA’s Use of IPCC.................................................................6 2.1 Claims That IPCC Errors Undermine IPCC Findings and Technical Support for Endangerment ........................................................................................................................6 2.1.1 Overview....................................................................................................................6 2.1.2 Accuracy of Statement on Percent of the Netherlands Below Sea Level..................8 2.1.3 Validity of Himalayan Glacier Projection .................................................................9 2.1.4 Characterization of Climate Change and Disaster Losses .......................................12 2.1.5 Validity of Alps, Andes, and African Mountain Snow Impacts..............................20 2.1.6 Validity of Amazon Rainforest Dieback Projection ................................................21 2.1.7 Validity of African Rain-Fed Agriculture Projection ..............................................23 2.1.8 Summary..................................................................................................................33
    [Show full text]
  • Agriculture, Forestry, and Other Human Activities
    4 Agriculture, Forestry, and Other Human Activities CO-CHAIRS D. Kupfer (Germany, Fed. Rep.) R. Karimanzira (Zimbabwe) CONTENTS AGRICULTURE, FORESTRY, AND OTHER HUMAN ACTIVITIES EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 77 4.1 INTRODUCTION 85 4.2 FOREST RESPONSE STRATEGIES 87 4.2.1 Special Issues on Boreal Forests 90 4.2.1.1 Introduction 90 4.2.1.2 Carbon Sinks of the Boreal Region 90 4.2.1.3 Consequences of Climate Change on Emissions 90 4.2.1.4 Possibilities to Refix Carbon Dioxide: A Case Study 91 4.2.1.5 Measures and Policy Options 91 4.2.1.5.1 Forest Protection 92 4.2.1.5.2 Forest Management 92 4.2.1.5.3 End Uses and Biomass Conversion 92 4.2.2 Special Issues on Temperate Forests 92 4.2.2.1 Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Temperate Forests 92 4.2.2.2 Global Warming: Impacts and Effects on Temperate Forests 93 4.2.2.3 Costs of Forestry Countermeasures 93 4.2.2.4 Constraints on Forestry Measures 94 4.2.3 Special Issues on Tropical Forests 94 4.2.3.1 Introduction to Tropical Deforestation and Climatic Concerns 94 4.2.3.2 Forest Carbon Pools and Forest Cover Statistics 94 4.2.3.3 Estimates of Current Rates of Forest Loss 94 4.2.3.4 Patterns and Causes of Deforestation 95 4.2.3.5 Estimates of Current Emissions from Forest Land Clearing 97 4.2.3.6 Estimates of Future Forest Loss and Emissions 98 4.2.3.7 Strategies to Reduce Emissions: Types of Response Options 99 4.2.3.8 Policy Options 103 75 76 IPCC RESPONSE STRATEGIES WORKING GROUP REPORTS 4.3 AGRICULTURE RESPONSE STRATEGIES 105 4.3.1 Summary of Agricultural Emissions of Greenhouse Gases 105 4.3.2 Measures and
    [Show full text]
  • Climate Change: Addressing the Major Skeptic Arguments
    Climate Change: Addressing the Major Skeptic Arguments September 2010 Whitepaper available online: http://www.dbcca.com/research Carbon Counter widget available for download at: www.Know-The-Number.com Research Team Authors Mary-Elena Carr, Ph.D. Kate Brash Associate Director Assistant Director Columbia Climate Center, Earth Institute Columbia Climate Center, Earth Institute Columbia University Columbia University Robert F. Anderson, Ph.D. Ewing-Lamont Research Professor Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory Columbia University DB Climate Change Advisors – Climate Change Investment Research Mark Fulton Bruce M. Kahn, Ph.D. Managing Director Director Global Head of Climate Change Investment Research Senior Investment Analyst Nils Mellquist Emily Soong Vice President Associate Senior Research Analyst Jake Baker Lucy Cotter Associate Research Analyst 2 Climate Change: Addressing the Major Skeptic Arguments Editorial Mark Fulton Global Head of Climate Change Investment Research Addressing the Climate Change Skeptics The purpose of this paper is to examine the many claims and counter-claims being made in the public debate about climate change science. For most of this year, the volume of this debate has turned way up as the ‘skeptics’ launched a determined assault on the climate findings accepted by the overwhelming majority of the scientific community. Unfortunately, the increased noise has only made it harder for people to untangle the arguments and form their own opinions. This is problematic because the way the public’s views are shaped is critical to future political action on climate change. For investors in particular, the implications are huge. While there are many arguments in favor of clean energy, water and sustainable agriculture – for instance, energy security, economic growth, and job opportunities – we at DB Climate Change Advisors (DBCCA) have always said that the science is one essential foundation of the whole climate change investment thesis.
    [Show full text]
  • Development of Threshold Levels and a Climate-Sensitivity Model of the Hydrological Regime of the High-Altitude Catchment of the Western Himalayas, Pakistan
    Civil & Environmental Engineering and Civil & Environmental Engineering and Construction Faculty Publications Construction Engineering 7-14-2019 Development of Threshold Levels and a Climate-Sensitivity Model of the Hydrological Regime of the High-Altitude Catchment of the Western Himalayas, Pakistan Muhammad Saifullah Yunnan University Shiyin Liu Yunnan University, [email protected] Adnan Ahmad Tahir COMSATS University Islamabad Muhammad Zaman University of Agriculture, Faisalabad FSajjadollow thisAhmad and additional works at: https://digitalscholarship.unlv.edu/fac_articles University of Nevada, Las Vegas, [email protected] Part of the Environmental Engineering Commons, and the Hydraulic Engineering Commons See next page for additional authors Repository Citation Saifullah, M., Liu, S., Tahir, A. A., Zaman, M., Ahmad, S., Adnan, M., Chen, D., Ashraf, M., Mehmood, A. (2019). Development of Threshold Levels and a Climate-Sensitivity Model of the Hydrological Regime of the High-Altitude Catchment of the Western Himalayas, Pakistan. Water, 11(7), 1-39. MDPI. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/w11071454 This Article is protected by copyright and/or related rights. It has been brought to you by Digital Scholarship@UNLV with permission from the rights-holder(s). You are free to use this Article in any way that is permitted by the copyright and related rights legislation that applies to your use. For other uses you need to obtain permission from the rights-holder(s) directly, unless additional rights are indicated by a Creative Commons license in the record and/ or on the work itself. This Article has been accepted for inclusion in Civil & Environmental Engineering and Construction Faculty Publications by an authorized administrator of Digital Scholarship@UNLV.
    [Show full text]
  • Mainstreaming Native Species-Based Forest Restoration
    93 ISBN 978-9962-614-22-7 Mainstreaming Native Species-Based Forest Restoration July 15-16, 2010 Philippines Sponsored by the Environmental Leadership & Training Initiative (ELTI), the Rain Forest Restoration Initiative (RFRI), and the Institute of Biology, University of the Philippines (UP) Diliman Conference Proceedings 91 Mainstreaming Native Species-Based Forest Restoration Conference Proceedings July 15-16, 2010 Philippines Sponsored by The Environmental Leadership & Training Initiative (ELTI) Rain Forest Restoration Initiative (RFRI) University of the Philippines (UP) 2 This is a publication of the Environmental Leadership & Training Initiative (ELTI), a joint program of the Yale School of Forestry & Environmental Studies (F&ES) and the Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute (STRI). www.elti.org Phone: (1) 203-432-8561 [US] E-mail: [email protected] or [email protected] Text and Editing: J. David Neidel, Hazel Consunji, Jonathan Labozzetta, Alicia Calle, Javier Mateo-Vega Layout: Alicia Calle Photographs: ELTI-Asia Photo Collection Suggested citation: Neidel, J.D., Consunji, H., Labozetta, J., Calle, A. and J. Mateo- Vega, eds. 2012. Mainstreaming Native Species-Based Forest Restoration. ELTI Conference Proceedings. New Haven, CT: Yale University; Panama City: Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute. ISBN 978-9962-614-22-7 3 Acknowledgements ELTI recognizes the generosity of the Arcadia Fund, whose fund- ing supports ELTI and helped make this event possible. Additional funding was provided by the Philippine Tropical Forest Conserva- tion Foundation. 4 List of Acronyms ANR Assisted Natural Regeneration Atty. Attorney CBFM Community-Based Forest Management CDM Clean Development Mechanism CI Conservation International CO2 Carbon Dioxide DENR Department of Environment & Natural Resources FAO United Nations Food & Agriculture Organization FMB Forest Management Bureau For.
    [Show full text]
  • What Is a Dance? in 3 Dances, Gene Friedman Attempts to Answer Just That, by Presenting Various Forms of Movement. the Film Is D
    GENE FRIEDMAN 3 Dances What is a dance? In 3 Dances, Gene Friedman attempts to answer just that, by presenting various forms of movement. The film is divided into three sections: “Public” opens with a wide aerial shot of The Museum of Modern Art’s Sculpture Garden and visitors walking about; “Party,” filmed in the basement of Judson Memorial Church, features the artists Alex Hay, Deborah Hay, Robert Rauschenberg, and Steve Paxton dancing the twist and other social dances; and “Private” shows the dancer Judith Dunn warming up and rehearsing in her loft studio, accompanied by an atonal vocal score. The three “dances” encompass the range of movement employed by the artists, musicians, and choreographers associated with Judson Dance Theater. With its overlaid exposures, calibrated framing, and pairing of distinct actions, Friedman’s film captures the group’s feverish spirit. WORKSHOPS In the late 1950s and early 1960s, three educational sites were formative for the group of artists who would go on to establish Judson Dance Theater. Through inexpensive workshops and composition classes, these artists explored and developed new approaches to art making that emphasized mutual aid and art’s relationship to its surroundings. The choreographer Anna Halprin used improvisation and simple tasks to encourage her students “to deal with ourselves as people, not dancers.” Her classes took place at her home outside San Francisco, on her Dance Deck, an open-air wood platform surrounded by redwood trees that she prompted her students to use as inspiration. In New York, near Judson Memorial Church, the ballet dancer James Waring taught a class in composition that brought together different elements of a theatrical performance, much like a collage.
    [Show full text]
  • Principles and Practice of Forest Landscape Restoration Case Studies from the Drylands of Latin America Edited by A.C
    Principles and Practice of Forest Landscape Restoration Case studies from the drylands of Latin America Edited by A.C. Newton and N. Tejedor About IUCN IUCN, International Union for Conservation of Nature, helps the world find pragmatic solutions to our most pressing environment and development challenges. IUCN works on biodiversity, climate change, energy, human livelihoods and greening the world economy by supporting scientific research, managing field projects all over the world, and bringing governments, NGOs, the UN and companies together to develop policy, laws and best practice. IUCN is the world’s oldest and largest global environmental organization, with more than 1,000 government and NGO members and almost 11,000 volunteer experts in some 160 countries. IUCN’s work is supported by over 1,000 staff in 60 offices and hundreds of partners in public, NGO and private sectors around the world. www.iucn.org Principles and Practice of Forest Landscape Restoration Case studies from the drylands of Latin America Principles and Practice of Forest Landscape Restoration Case studies from the drylands of Latin America Edited by A.C. Newton and N. Tejedor This book is dedicated to the memory of Margarito Sánchez Carrada, a student who worked on the research project described in these pages. The designation of geographical entities in this book, and the presentation of the material, do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of IUCN or the European Commission concerning the legal status of any country, territory, or area, or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.
    [Show full text]
  • Section 2: Observational Evidence of Climate Change Weather Stations Global Historical Climatology Network Stations
    8/31/16 Section 2: Observational Evidence of Climate Change Learning outcomes • how temperature, precipitation are measured • how global averages are calculated • evidence for recent climate change within the climate system • temperature, precipitation, sea level rise, cryosphere, extreme events GEOG 313/513 Global Climate Change Fall 20161 Prof J. Hicke Weather stations weather.usu.edu/htm/observatory-diagram www.inmtn.com/weather-station-installation.html Global Climate Change 2 Prof J. Hicke Global Historical Climatology Network stations Kitchen, 2013 © 2014 Pearson Education, Inc. Global Climate Change 3 Prof J. Hicke 1 8/31/16 Global Historical Climatology Network stations >3800 stations with records >50 years 1600 stations with records >100 years 226 stations with records >150 years longest: Berlin, begun in 1701 (so >300 years) Global Climate Change 4 Prof J. Hicke wind Radiosondes speed, direction air temperature National Weather Service Altitude (log pressure) dew point temperature NOAA Temperature Global Climate Change 5 funnel.sfsu.edu Prof J. Hicke Atmospheric temperature from satellites Microwave sounding unit TIROS Operational Vertical Sounds (TOVS) NOAA en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Satellite_temperature_measurements Global Climate Change 6 Prof J. Hicke 2 8/31/16 Warming in atmosphere Global Climate Change en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Satellite_temperature_measurements7 Prof J. Hicke Three estimates of surface temperature trends Global Climate Change IPCC AR 5, WG I, 8 2013 Prof J. Hicke Most current global mean T from NASA GISS 2015 Global Climate Change 9 Prof J. Hicke 3 8/31/16 Bear in mind the distribution of stations certainty depends on spatial location more certain at global scale Global Climate Change 10 Prof J.
    [Show full text]
  • IPCC AR5 Climate Sensitivity “A Consensus of Contraversies”
    IPCC AR5 Climate Sensitivity “A consensus of Contraversies” No best estimate for equilibrium climate sensitivity can now be given because of a lack of agreement on values across assessed lines of evidence and studies. IPCC AR5 Technical Summary - 'Quantification of Climate System Responses' No best estimate for equilibrium climate sensitivity can now be given because of a lack of agreement on values across assessed lines of evidence and studies. Observational and model studies of temperature change, climate feedbacks and changes in the Earth’s energy budget together provide confidence in the magnitude of global warming in response to past and future forcing. {Box 12.2, Box 13.1} • The net feedback from the combined effect of changes in water vapour, and differences between atmospheric and surface warming is extremely likely positive and therefore amplifies changes in climate. The net radiative feedback due to all cloud types combined is likely positive. Uncertainty in the sign and magnitude of the cloud feedback is due primarily to continuing uncertainty in the impact of warming on low clouds. {7.2} • The equilibrium climate sensitivity quantifies the response of the climate system to constant radiative forcing on multi-century time scales. It is defined as the change in global mean surface temperature at equilibrium that is caused by a doubling of the atmospheric CO2 concentration. Equilibrium climate sensitivity is likely in the range 1.5°C to 4.5°C (high confidence), extremely unlikely less than 1°C (high confidence), and very unlikely greater than 6°C (medium confidence)16. The lower temperature limit of the assessed likely range is thus less than the 2°C in the AR4, but the upper limit is the same.
    [Show full text]