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Minimum Temperature Cycles in Florida

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Minimum Temperature Cycles in Florida 3. Dillon, D. F. 1981. Propagating dwarf citrus with hydronic radiant ples and Practices. Prentice-Hall, New Jersey. heated benches. Combined Proc. Int. Plant Propagators' Soc, Four 9. Jauhari, O. S. and S. F. Rahman. 1959. Further investigations on Winds Growers, Fremont, Calif. rooting in cuttings of sweet lime (Citrus limettoides) Tanaka. Sci. Cult. 4. Dore, J. 1953. Seasonal variation in the regeneration of root cuttings. 24:432-434. Nature. 172:1189. 10. Johnston, J. C, K. W. Opitz, and E. F. Frolich. 1959. Citrus propaga 5. Ford, H. W. 1957. A method of propagating citrus rootstock clones tion. Calif. Agr. Expt. Sta. Cir. 475. by leaf bud cuttings. Proc. Amer. Soc. Hort. Sci. 69:204-207. 11. Kossuth, S. V., R. H. Biggs, P. G. Webb, and K. M. Porter. 1981. 6. Gates, C. T., D. Bouma, and H. Groenewegen. 1961. The develop Rapid propagation techniques for fruit crops. Proc. Fla. State Hort. ment of cuttings of the Washington navel orange to the stage of fruit Soc. 94:323-328. set. I. The development of the rooted cutting. Aust. J. Agr. Res. 12. Platt, R. G. and K. W. Opitz. 1973. The propagation of citrus, p. 12:1050-1065. 4-47. In: W. Reuther (ed.). The citrus industry Vol. III. Univ. of 7. Halma, F. F. 1931. The propagation of citrus by cuttings. Hilgardia. Calif., Berkeley. 6:131-157. 13. Umarov, A. Raising lemon transplants from softwood cuttings. 1985. 8. Hartmann, H. T. and D. E. Kester. 1983. Plant Propagation: Princi Hort. Abstr. 55:1513. Proc Fla. State Hort. Soc. 98:42-46. 1985. MINIMUM TEMPERATURE CYCLES IN FLORIDA E. Chen and J. F. Gerber and 7-10 Feb. 1895) occurred. They " . destroyed more Fruit Crops Department, IFAS property than any other freeze in the history of the state University of Florida . ." (5, 16). The freeze of 1899 (Jacksonville minimum Gainesville, FL 32611 temperature, -12°C) killed many trees in north central Florida and was instrumental in movement of groves Additional index words. Climatology, trend, freeze, time southward. Next came the 11 and 13 Dec. 1962 freeze, series. which was recorded as the most severe freeze of this cen tury (10) until another pair of freezes occurred on Dec. Abstract. Time series formed from 88 years (1898-1985) of 1983 and Jan. 1985. Thus, available historical records of minimum temperature observations from Jacksonville, Ocala, citrus culture indicate at least 3 periods of 60 to 70 years Clermont, Bartow, Arcadia, Fort Myers, and Miami, and 151 in the recent past when the temperature environment was years (1835-1985) of annual minimum temperatures from supportive to citrus cultivation in north central Florida: Jacksonville were analyzed. Trends, patterns, and possible the St. Augustine area (pre 1835), the Palatka area (1835- cycles and periodicities of the time series were identified. 1899), then movement southward (post 1899). Now there Linear correlations among the seven stations were calculated is doubt about citrus cultivation in Marion County. to determine the change of minimum temperatures with This study analyzes the long term records of absolute latitude and distance to coast. Our present position in the minimum temperatures in Florida for 7 cities in interior time series is compared to similar situations in the past to and coastal locations. The purpose is to identify trends infer possible future minimum temperatures. and periodicities for short term prediction and future planning. Analyses were done on the long term annual data from Jacksonville, and statistical correlations were em Extreme low temperature events have large negative ployed to show the change of minimum temperature in impacts on horticulture. Extreme events which occur back the peninsula. Seasonal minimum temperatures were to back are even more devastating. An example is the 25 selected for this study because of their critical importance Dec. 1983 freeze (8) which was followed 13 months later to horticulture. Some points in the time series may reach by the 21 Jan. 1985 freeze (9). Four severe freezes occur the observed value for as little as 1 to 2 hours out of the red during the past 5 winters (1980-81 to 1984-85); the entire season (1 Nov. to 15 Mar.) or the annual calendar one winter without a severe freeze was the 1982-83 season. year (1 Jan. to 31 Dec). This recent cluster of freezes raised questions concerning possible short-term changes in the temperature regime in Materials and Methods the Florida peninsula. Historical observations appeared to indicate that these events tend to occur in cycles and with Time series formed from absolute seasonal minimum some periodicities (5). Citrus products (fresh fruit and temperatures (1898-1985) from Jacksonville, Ocala, Cler juice) were exported from the St. Augustine area as early mont, Bartow, Arcadia, Fort Myers, and Miami were as 1778 (6, 20). Many trees in the area were 100-years-old analyzed. In addition, a longer period (151 years) of an (7) when the freeze of 7-8 Feb. 1835 struck—" . there nual minimum temperature (1835-1985) from Jacksonville came a frost, a killing frost, which destroyed every orange, were also used. The cities were selected on the basis of the lime, and lemon tree in Florida, a circumstance which length and completeness of their temperature records and could not have been foreseen, as such a thing had never their locations in the peninsula to give spatial and coastal before occurred ..." (7). The point is there was a period representation. The annual data from Jacksonville were of some 50-100 years where minimum temperatures were compiled from 1835-1905 (14) and from Climatological mild enough to support citrus cultivation in the St. Augus Data for Florida (4). Data before about 1897 were deemed tine area. Then 2 back-to-back freezes (27-28 Dec. 1894 reliable but unofficial. Seasonal data are more suitable for analysis because the annual accounting method separates Florida Agricultural Experiment Stations Journal Services No. 6904. observations in a season into 2 calendar years. A long series 42 Proc. Fla. State Hort. Soc. 98: 1985. Table 1. Linear regression of seasonal observations and correlation of each city with its nearest neighbor (NN) and with Jacksonville (Jax). JflCKSONVILLE RNNURL TEMPERflTURE The correlation between annual and seasonal observations of each city is also shown (Ann). Linear regress, Linear correlation with City Slope r NN Jax Ann Jacksonville -.029 -.255** 1.00 1.00 0.62 Ocala -.004 -.042 0.83 0.83 0.36 Clermont -.021 -.214** 0.82 0.88 0.61 Bartow -.003 -.030 0.80 0.72 0.48 Arcadia -.038 -.385** 0.67 0.67 0.63 Fort Myers -.018 -.207 0.75 0.76 0.51 Miami .000 .000 0.77 0.70 0.60 1635 1855 1875 1695 1915 1935 1955 1975 of seasonal observations is not available but is needed for YEfiRS cycle analyses. The average correlation between seasonal Fig. 1. Annual minimum temperatures from 1835 to 1985. The hori and annual data for the 7 stations is 0.54 (Table 1). The zontal dash line is the mean of the observations, the continuous straight correlation points out the difference between annual and line is the linear trend, the smooth line is the 5-year weighted running seasonal data which are subsets of one set of observations. average. Black triangles indicate periods in the observations where the Comparison of seasonal and annual data for ten stations standard deviation remained less than 1.0 over 4 and 5 consecutive years. in the United States show an average of 5% in decadal variance (18). Missing data were extrapolated linearly fol tracted from an observed point and the square of the dif lowing the method of Brooks and Carruthers (2). ference summed to obtain a variance. Cycles with the smal During the 88-year period every station had experi lest variance, the "best fit" were kept. Cycles which were enced relocation. Relocations were generally to airports kept were tested for amplitudes of the coefficients until and rural agricultural stations where temperatures are another "best fit" was obtained. These were combined and generally lower. In addition, Jacksonville, Fort Myers, and used to estimate the expected seasonal temperature as a Miami probably also experienced urban effects (3). Urban function of time for each location (Fig. 3). effects produce an average warming trend of 0.0006°C/yr. (11, 15) or a total of 0.05°C from 1900 to 1985. Approxi Results and Discussion mately 30% of the stations also changed observation times from AM to PM, which can produce a cold bias of about Trend. An advective freeze, following our definition, 0.3°C for a 50 year (1931-1985) period (11). generally occurred in a "valley" — an observation lower The annual and seasonal absolute minimum tempera than its 2 neighbors (Fig. 2). Advective freezes exemplify tures are plotted in Figs. 1 and 2. The dashed line is the worst conditions in this series of minimum temperatures; mean of the period. The continuous straight line is the approximately 75% are found below the mean of annual linear least square trend. The thick line is a weighted run minima. Only 2 advective freezes occurred in November; ning average of 5 years; it was applied to smooth the data these were the two mildest of the advective freezes. Each and to remove noise. Each open circle represents a advective freeze is an indirect indication of the penetration minimum temperature (Fig. 2) which occurred in all 7 sta of the polar front through the Florida peninsula and the tions within ± 1 day of one another. This is the criterion lack of energy in the southern region to block it.
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