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Exploring Transition of Large Technological Systems Through Relational Data Exploring Transition of Large Technological Systems through Relational Data A Study of The Danish Smart Grid Development Ph.D. Dissertation Roman Jurowetzki Dissertation submitted March, 2016 Thesis submitted: March 3, 2016 PhD Supervisor: Assoc. Prof. Birgitte Gregersen Aalborg University Assistant PhD Supervisor: Assoc. Prof. Jesper Lindgaard Christensen Aalborg University PhD Committee: Assoc. Prof. Ina Drejer, Aalborg University Research Prof. Antje Klitkou, The Nordic In- stitute for Studies in Innovation, Research and Education Dr. Ismael Rafols, Universitat Politècnica de València; University of Sussex PhD Series: Faculty of Social Sciences, Aalborg University ISSN: 2246-1256 ISBN: 978-87-7112-xxx-x Published by: Aalborg University Press Skjernvej 4A, 2nd floor DK – 9220 Aalborg Ø Phone: +45 99407140 [email protected] forlag.aau.dk c Copyright by Roman Jurowetzki Printed in Denmark by Rosendahls, 2016 Curriculum Vitae Roman Jurowetzki Roman Jurowetzki is a Ph.D. Fellow with the Innovation, Knowledge, and Economics Dynamics (IKE) group at the Department of Business and Man- agement, Aalborg University, Denmark. He holds a M.Sc. in Innovation Eco- nomics (MIKE-E) from Aalborg University and a B.A. from the University of Passau, Germany in Governance and Public Policy. His research interests are related to understanding of socio-technical change processes. While not being officially part of the Danish strategic research alliance on Energy Inno- vation Systems (EIS), he has been – given the empirical focus of the present thesis – associated with the project and in close contact and collaboration with project partners. Throughout the three years in which he has been working on the present thesis, he aspired to build bridges between the innovation science tradition and the young field of computational social science. This is reflected in the adaptation of machine learning methods such as Natural Lan- guage Processing into the analysis. He believes that especially relational data – constantly growing in quantity, availability, and detail – has to be better utilised in social science. Since the beginning of his affiliation with Aalborg University, he has also been part of the Secretariat of Globelics, The Global Network for Economics of Learning, Innovation, and Competence Building Systems. Globelics is a world- wide, open and diverse community of scholars working on innovation and iii Curriculum Vitae competence building in the context of economic development. He has been responsible for the relaunch of the network’s Working Paper Series, the web- page, and other public communication related tasks. He has also assisted in the preparation of the 2012 and 2013 conferences in Hangzhou, China and Ankara, Turkey. In 2014 and 2015 he has been part of the organising commit- tees for the conferences in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia and Havana, Cuba. Here he has been, among others, coordinating the reviewing process of submitted paper proposals. The work with the Secretariat also led to a collaboration with Bengt-Åke Lundvall and Rasmus Lema in the attempt to bring the In- novation System tradition together with the Global Value Chain literature. This has to date resulted in a joint bibliometric publication and spurred the dialogue between scholars from the two traditions. Papers written since joining the IKE group have been presented at several international conferences and workshops, and accepted for publication in, among others, the proceedings of the ISS conference 2014 and the conference proceedings for the annual conference on SocioInformatics. Other papers have appeared in working series or are under review with journals. A collabora- tion with the Copenhagen Cleantech Cluster (today part of CLEAN) resulted in a policy report on the developing Smart Energy System in Denmark. From March until May 2014, he had stayed with RAND Europe, Cam- bridge and Brussels, where he participated in various projects. Particularly he has been involved in commissioned research evaluation and mapping of collaboration in medical research funded by the Department of Health, UK. He has also participated in a project on technological forecasting, commis- sioned by DG Connect. iv Abstract The 2013 edition of the European Commission’s report “Smart Grid projects in Europe” outlines Denmark’s strong leadership position within smart en- ergy research, development and demonstration. The high and constantly growing percentage of wind power in the Danish system, the country’s as- piration to become a European Smart Grid laboratory, and the currently achieved strong position in this technological area make Denmark an inter- esting case to study. The smart grid relates to the grid not in the same way as the smartphone to the phone. The transformation is characterised by adding components to the existing energy grid(s) rather than replacing them. Consequently this process is characterised by a tension between the old and the new. The new (e.g. smart meters, advanced transmission monitoring etc.) does not neces- sarily appear to replace the old (the established transmission and distribution infrastructure) but to integrate with it and upgrade its capacity. The most ob- vious area of friction is the technology itself – new and old technological components have to be able to interact, which leads to challenges in terms of interdependence and interoperationability. But also the tension between established and new actors in the field, old and new business models, and institutions to support them has significant importance for the transformation of the grid. The overall guiding question of the thesis is therefore formulated as follows: How does the interplay between established and new technolo- gies and actors determine the direction and outcomes of inno- vation in large technological systems (such as the Danish smart grid)? v Abstract The thesis can be subdivided into 3 parts. The introduction and Chapter A constitute the overall conceptual basis. Chapter B and C take a system- wide view on the subject matter. Both chapters have in common that they approach the focal technology as something that is defined by more than the purely technical delineation. Mapping and identification of implicit struc- ture becomes a central part of the analysis. The scope of Chapter D and E is focused on more narrow conceptual aspects. The former aims at explor- ing actor behaviour within technological niches, while the latter – looking at a different technology than smart grid – proposes a more general computa- tional method for understanding technological evolution. The contributions of the thesis can be divided into (1) subject matter in- sights, (2) conceptual contributions, and (3) methodological contributions. Results of several chapters indicate that in the Danish case it might be more appropriate – from an academical and policy point of view – to think in terms of a “smart energy system” rather than a pure electricity smart grid. This insight should be considered in policy development, research funding, and the definition of standards. Conceptually the thesis aims to combine elements form Science, Tech- nology and Society (STS) tradition with the Technological Innovation System (TIS) framework. Thereby, a more refined analysis of the transforming energy grid system is possible. Throughout the thesis relational data and network analysis tools are utilised to explore the above-mentioned interplays, thus embracing the complexity of the explored system. This allows gaining a more detailed picture of the com- position, structure, and power relations between the elements. vi Resumé EU-Kommissionens rapport „Smart Grid projects in Europe“ (Smart grid pro- jekter i Europa) fra 2013 fremhæver Danmark som førende inden for smart grid forskning, udvikling og demonstration. Den høje og voksende andel af vindenergi i det danske energisystem sammen med landets målsætning om at blive et europæisk smart grid laboratorie og den stærke position på dette teknologiområde gør Danmark til en spændende case at analysere nærmere. Smart grid forholder sig ikke til elnettet på den samme måde som smartp- hones til traditionelle telefoner. Transformationen af energisystemet sker ved, at komponenter bliver tilføjet til de nuværende energisystemer i stedet for helt at erstatte dem. Som konsekvens heraf opstår en indbygget spænding mellem det etablerede og det nye. Det nye (f.eks. intelligente elmålere, avan- ceret transmissionsovervågning osv.) udvikles således ikke nødvendigvis for at erstatte det nuværende (det eksisterende energitransmissions- og distribu- tionssystem) men for at integrere med det og for at opgradere dets kapacitet. Det mest åbenlyse spændingsfelt opstår omkring selve teknologien – nye og gamle teknologielementer skal kunne spille sammen, hvilket tit giver ud- fordringer i forhold til interdependens og kompatibilitet. Også spændingen mellem de etablerede og nye aktører på området, gamle og nye forretnings- modeller, og understøttende reguleringer og institutioner har en betydelig indflydelse på systemets transformation. Den overordnede problemformule- ring af denne afhandling er således: På hvilken måde bestemmer samspillet mellem etablerede og nye teknologier og aktører retningen og resultatet af innova- tionsaktiviteter i store teknologiske systemer (som f.eks. det danske smart grid)? vii Resumé Afhandlingen består af 3 hoveddele. Indledningen og Kapitel A udgør første del og etablerer det overordnede konceptuelle grundlag. Kapitel B og C (anden del) tager en systemanalytisk tilgangsvinkel til
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