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Rapport D'information N° 131 SÉNAT SESSION ORDINAIRE DE 2019-2020 Enregistré à la Présidence du Sénat le 19 novembre 2019 RAPPORT D’INFORMATION FAIT au nom de la commission des affaires économiques (1) et de la commission des affaires étrangères, de la défense et des forces armées (2) sur la politique des lanceurs spatiaux, Par Mme Sophie PRIMAS et M. Jean-Marie BOCKEL, Sénateurs (1) Cette commission est composée de : Mme Sophie Primas, présidente ; Mme Élisabeth Lamure, MM. Daniel Gremillet, Alain Chatillon, Martial Bourquin, Franck Montaugé, Mmes Anne-Catherine Loisier, Noëlle Rauscent, M. Alain Bertrand, Mme Cécile Cukierman, M. Jean-Pierre Decool, vice-présidents ; MM. François Calvet, Daniel Laurent, Mmes Catherine Procaccia, Viviane Artigalas, Valérie Létard, secrétaires ; M. Serge Babary, Mme Anne-Marie Bertrand, MM. Yves Bouloux, Bernard Buis, Henri Cabanel, Mmes Anne Chain-Larché, Marie-Christine Chauvin, Catherine Conconne, Agnès Constant, MM. Roland Courteau, Pierre Cuypers, Marc Daunis, Daniel Dubois, Laurent Duplomb, Alain Duran, Mmes Dominique Estrosi Sassone, Françoise Férat, M. Fabien Gay, Mme Annie Guillemot, MM. Xavier Iacovelli, Jean-Marie Janssens, Joël Labbé, Mme Marie-Noëlle Lienemann, MM. Pierre Louault, Michel Magras, Jean-François Mayet, Franck Menonville, Jean-Pierre Moga, Mmes Patricia Morhet-Richaud, Sylviane Noël, MM. Jackie Pierre, Michel Raison, Mmes Évelyne Renaud-Garabedian, Denise Saint-Pé, M. Jean-Claude Tissot. (2) Cette commission est composée de : M. Christian Cambon, président ; MM. Pascal Allizard, Bernard Cazeau, Robert del Picchia, Mme Sylvie Goy-Chavent, MM. Jean-Noël Guérini, Joël Guerriau, Pierre Laurent, Cédric Perrin, Gilbert Roger, Jean-Marc Todeschini, vice-présidents ; M. Olivier Cigolotti, Mme Joëlle Garriaud-Maylam, M. Philippe Paul, Mme Marie-Françoise Perol-Dumont, secrétaires ; MM. Jean-Marie Bockel, Gilbert Bouchet, Michel Boutant, Olivier Cadic, Alain Cazabonne, Pierre Charon, Mme Hélène Conway-Mouret, MM. Édouard Courtial, René Danesi, Gilbert-Luc Devinaz, Jean-Paul Émorine, Bernard Fournier, Jean-Pierre Grand, Claude Haut, Mme Gisèle Jourda, MM. Jean-Louis Lagourgue, Robert Laufoaulu, Ronan Le Gleut, Jacques Le Nay, Rachel Mazuir, François Patriat, Gérard Poadja, Ladislas Poniatowski, Mmes Christine Prunaud, Isabelle Raimond-Pavero, MM. Stéphane Ravier, Hugues Saury, Bruno Sido, Rachid Temal, Raymond Vall, André Vallini, Yannick Vaugrenard, Jean-Pierre Vial, Richard Yung. - 3 - SOMMAIRE Pages CONTEXTE ............................................................................................................................. 5 AVANT-PROPOS .................................................................................................................. 7 I. ARIANE 6 NE POURRA PAS BÉNÉFICIER DES CONDITIONS FAVORABLES QU’A CONNUES ARIANE 5 ........................................................................................... 9 A. AVEC ARIANE, L’EUROPE A ÉTÉ PIONNIÈRE DU TRANSPORT SPATIAL COMMERCIAL .................................................................................................................. 9 1. Ariane 5 : un succès technique et commercial ..................................................................... 9 a) Ariane 5 s’est octroyé près de la moitié du marché commercial accessible des satellites géostationnaires sur les dix dernières années ........................................... 9 b) Avec Soyouz et Vega, Arianespace est en mesure de couvrir la totalité du spectre des orbites .....................................................................................................13 (1) Le lanceur moyen Soyouz ................................................................................................... 13 (2) Le lanceur léger Vega ......................................................................................................... 14 c) Un succès qui s’appuie sur le Centre spatial guyanais............................................16 2. Ariane 6 : une solution de continuité ................................................................................16 B. LE CONTEXTE EST AUJOURD’HUI BIEN PLUS ADVERSE .........................................21 1. Un marché incertain exigeant des solutions flexibles et adaptées aux besoins des clients ....21 2. Une concurrence vive exerçant une pression à la baisse sur les prix… ...............................24 a) L’arrivée de SpaceX, premier représentant du « New Space », a bouleversé le marché commercial ....................................................................................................25 b) La concurrence sur le marché commercial mondial ouvert devrait encore s’accroître ...................................................................................................................29 3. …et bénéficiant d’un soutien public important ..................................................................33 4. Une évolution fondée sur une innovation de rupture en passe de devenir le nouveau standard technologique : la réutilisation ...........................................................................36 II. UN EFFORT DE MODERNISATION VITAL POUR MAINTENIR NOTRE AUTONOMIE D’ACCÈS À L’ESPACE ..........................................................................40 A. UN CONSEIL MINISTÉRIEL STRATÉGIQUE POUR GARANTIR NOTRE AUTONOMIE D’ACCÈS À L’ESPACE ............................................................................40 1. Des financements supplémentaires à la hauteur des enjeux devront être actés ....................40 2. Assurer la transition entre Ariane 5 et 6 face à des perspectives de marché incertaines ......41 3. Miser dès aujourd’hui sur le réutilisable ...........................................................................44 a) L’Europe doit dès aujourd’hui se lancer dans le réutilisable ..................................44 b) Prometheus et Themis : les premières briques d’un futur lanceur réutilisable .....48 (1) Prometheus : un moteur à propulsion liquide potentiellement réutilisable ................... 48 (2) Callisto et Themis : des démonstrateurs de premier étage réutilisable ........................... 49 c) Poursuivre la réduction des coûts ............................................................................50 (1) Icarus : un étage supérieur à l’indice constructif réduit ................................................... 50 (2) Réduire les coûts de façon incrémentale ........................................................................... 51 (3) Moderniser le CSG ............................................................................................................. 51 4. Ne pas créer une concurrence intra-européenne .................................................................52 a) S’opposer à un projet de hausse de la capacité d’emport de Vega C .....................52 b) Compléter la famille des lanceurs européens par des solutions dédiées aux petits satellites ? .........................................................................................................54 - 4 - B. UNE NÉCESSAIRE RÉVISION DE LA POLITIQUE INDUSTRIELLE DES LANCEURS SPATIAUX ...................................................................................................57 1. Pour une préférence européenne ........................................................................................57 a) Augmenter le volume potentiel de la demande institutionnelle en établissant un principe de préférence européenne .....................................................................58 b) Augmenter le volume réel de la demande institutionnelle ....................................60 c) Remplacer le soutien à l’exploitation par des commandes pluriannuelles et agrégées au niveau européen ....................................................................................61 2. Assouplir le principe du retour géographique ....................................................................63 a) Appliquer la règle du retour géographique de façon plus souple et incitative .....63 b) Réduire la dispersion de la production industrielle ...............................................66 C. RESTAURER L’AMBITION SPATIALE EUROPÉENNE ................................................68 1. La nécessité d’un leadership collectif appuyé sur une ambition ..........................................68 2. Une indispensable mobilisation budgétaire ........................................................................70 ANNEXES ..............................................................................................................................75 I. LES INSTITUTIONS DE L’EUROPE SPATIALE ...........................................................75 II. MARCHÉ COMMERCIAL ET MARCHÉ INSTITUTIONNEL : UNE DISTINCTION FRAGILE ...............................................................................................76 III. LA CLASSIFICATION DES PETITS SATELLITES ....................................................77 IV. LE PARI AMÉRICAIN DE DÉVELOPPEMENT DE L’OFFRE DE TRANSPORT SPATIAL COMMERCIAL ..............................................................................................78 V. MODALITÉS DE CALCUL DE LA RÈGLE DU RETOUR GÉOGRAPHIQUE : ARTICLE 4 DE L’ANNEXE V DE LA CONVENTION DE 1975 ..................................80 VI. NOUVELLE GOUVERNANCE INDUSTRIELLE SUR LE DÉVELOPPEMENT ET L’EXPLOITATION DÉFINIE EN 2014 .....................................................................82 VII. LA RÉPARTITION DU FINANCEMENT DES ACTIVITÉS DU CENTRE SPATIAL GUYANAIS (CSG) .........................................................................................83
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