2.0 FORECAST SUMMARY Central Oregon Is Growing Across All Indicators

Chapter 2 – Aviation Activity Forecasts March 12, 2018 2.0 FORECAST SUMMARY Central Oregon is growing across all indicators. In the ten years between 2006 and 2016, the population of Deschutes County has grown by 23 percent, gross regional product has grown by 20 percent, and employment has recovered to pre-recession levels. Permanent migrants are drawn by the quality of life and comparatively lower cost of living when compared to Western Oregon and California, and tourists come throughout the year to partake in the tax-free shopping and outdoor activities. This regional growth has been reflected in the strong uptick in aviation activity. Passenger enplanements have grown at an annual average of 2.1 percent per year, and 2016 enplanements are 66 percent above 2006 levels. Deschutes County has some of the fastest growing communities in the country, and RDM is one of the nation’s fastest growing Airports. Historical and FAA-projected growth exceed the levels for Oregon and the U.S. Air cargo volume has declined by 40 percent over the last ten years. This decline is largely because of a global movement towards electronic substitutes for mail, and high fuel prices, and increased air cargo screening pushing cargo on to trucks. General aviation has spread to other airports in the region, and much flight training relocated from Redmond to Bend. Redmond, with its airport traffic control tower (ATCT), instrument landing system, and two fixed base operators, remains the primary regional airport for jet traffic. A summary of the demand forecasts is presented in Table 2-1. Table 2-1: Forecas t Summary Category 2006 2016 2036 CAGR 20 16 -20 36 Enplanements 197,223 298 ,322 680,750 4.2% Air Cargo (Tons) 1,612.8 970.1 1,000 0.2% Aircraft Operations 68 ,388 40,162 47,740 0. 9% Itinerant Operations Air Carrier 1,433 5,127 13,140 4.8% Commuter / Air Taxi 16,803 6,340 2,100 -5.4% General Aviation 22,170 10,985 14,000 1.2% Military 366 341 300 -0.6% Local Operations General Aviation 27,376 16,829 18,900 0.6% Military 240 540 500 -0.4% Based Aircraft 129 80 127 2.3% Single-Engine Piston 92 64 78 1.0% Multi-Engine Piston 31 6 2 -5.3% Jet & Turbo-Prop 3 4 30 10.6% Helicopter 3 6 12 3.5% Other 0 0 5 N/A Year corresponds to FAA Fiscal Year, October to September. Airport was closed for three weeks in 2016 for construction. 2016: Enplanements and Air Cargo – RDM Monthly Report and RDM Performance Metrics, Aircraft Operations – Terminal Area Forecast 2016, B ased Aircraft – Airport Management Records 2016 , CAGR: Compound Annual Growth Rate 1 Chapter 2 – Aviation Activity Forecasts March 12, 2018 2.1 INTRODUCTION TO FORECASTS Aviation activity forecasts evaluate the future TERMINOLOGY demand at the Airport. This chapter forecasts the following: Aircraft Operation : A count of a takeoff, landing, or touch- and-go. Each time an aircraft touches the runway to takeoff or land, V Passenger Enplanements it counts as an operation. V Cargo Volume Aircraft Approach Category (AAC) : Classification of an V Based Aircraft aircraft by approach speed, with “A” being the slowest and “E” being the fastest. V Aircraft Operations (Itinerant and Local) Airplane Design Group (ADG) : Classification of an aircraft by its size (wingspan and tail height) with “I” being the Forecasts have a base year of 2016, and smallest and “VI” being the largest. use the Federal Aviation Administration Airport Reference Code (ARC) : Used to determine facility (FAA) fiscal year (October to September). size and setback requirements. The airport reference code is a The forecast period is 20 years with composite of the approach category and design group of the critical reporting intervals of every five years. aircraft. Multiple forecasting methodologies are used Based Aircraft : Aircraft that are stored at RDM. These aircraft with each activity, and are compared with may be stored full-time or seasonally. the FAA Terminal Area Forecast (TAF). Critical Aircraft : The most demanding aircraft (in terms of size and/or speed) to use an airport more than 500 times a year or Forecasts help determine if existing airport to have scheduled operations at an airport. facilities are sufficient to handle future Enplanement : The act of a passenger boarding a scheduled or demand (passengers, cargo, operations, charter aircraft operated by a passenger airline. and based aircraft), or if facilities need to be General Aviation ( general aviation ): Aviation activities modified to meet future demand. The FAA conducted by recreational, business, and charter users not Seattle Airports District Office will review operating as airlines under FAR Part 121, Part 135, or military forecasts for rationality and comparison to regulations. the FAA TAF. Itinerant Operation : An operation that originates and terminates at different airports. An example is an aircraft flying The chapter is organized in the following from RDM to another airport. sections: Local Operation : An operation that originates and terminates Community Profile V at the same airport. An example is an aircraft taking off from RDM, V Aviation Activity Profile remaining near the airport to practice flight maneuvers, and then landing at RDM. V Scheduled Service Forecasts Touch -and -Go : A maneuver where an aircraft lands and takes V General Aviation Forecasts off without leaving the runway. A touch-and-go counts as two V Peaking and Critical Aircraft aircraft operations. V Forecast Summary 2 Chapter 2 – Aviation Activity Forecasts March 12, 2018 Table 2-2 describes the data sources used in this chapter. Table 2-2: Description of Data Sources Source Description The FAA TAF, published in January 2017, provides historical records and forecasts for passenger enplanements, aircraft operations and based aircraft at RDM. These forecasts serve as a comparison for forecasts FAA TAF prepared as part of this planning effort, and provide historical information on aircraft activity. The TAF is included as Attachment 1 . The Aerospace Forecast 2016-2036 is a national-level forecast of aviation activity. The Aerospace Forecast helps FAA Aerospace Forecast guide local forecasts by serving as a point of comparison between local trends and national trends. The TFMSC includes data collected from flight plans. These operations are categorized by aircraft type, and used to identify trends in the RDM fleet mix. The advantage of the TFMSC data is its degree of detail and its insights into the itinerant users of RDM. A disadvantage of TFMSC data is it FAA Traffic Flow Management does not include local operations or operations that did not System Counts Data (TFMSC) file a flight plan. As such, the utility of TFMSC data is limited to larger aircraft, including scheduled commercial passenger, cargo, and charter operators, and private business jets. Scheduled, charter passenger, and air cargo airlines fill out the T-100 form monthly. The T-100 database is an online repository of the data recorded on the forms, such as U.S. Department of number of seats sold, number of seats available, freight Transportation (USDOT) T-100 transported, aircraft used, and departures performed. The T- Database 100 provides a detailed look at the operations of passenger and cargo airlines. U.S. Census Bureau data was used to compare growth in Deschutes County to other communities across the country. U.S. Census Bureau Highlights from the Census Bureau are included as Attachment 2. Airline ticket data was used to identify the catchment area and fare trends at RDM. Two sources were used: The Airline Reporting Corporation (ARC) and Market Information Data Tapes. These sources provide insight on the zip codes (based on billing information) that RDM travelers came from, Airline Ticket Data which defines the catchment area. This information was then used to see where else travelers in the catchment area fly from, and determine how many potential RDM passengers chose to fly from other airports. ---- Continued on Next Page ---- 3 Chapter 2 – Aviation Activity Forecasts March 12, 2018 Table 2-2: Description of Data Sources – Continued Source Description Socioeconomic data is provided by data vendor Woods & Poole, Inc. (W&P), and the Portland State University College of Urban & Public Affairs: Population Research Center (PRC). The local municipalities use PRC data for population projections. The City of Redmond Comprehensive Plan was consulted; however, it is dated and does not reflect the best available information. The City of Redmond’s Comprehensive Plan was last completed in 2001 (with updates through 2015), and will be fully Socioeconomic Data updated in 2017/2018. The Deschutes County Comprehensive Plan was adopted in 2012. W&P provides data for gap years in the U.S. Census. The W&P dataset considers the Bend-Redmond Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA), and provides 124 data categories with records from 1970 to 2016, and forecast through 2040. Data categories considered include population, employment, earnings and income, and gross regional product. Economic development data helps tell the story behind the community’s recent growth and shows where the community is focusing its efforts in terms of business recruitment. Data was Local Economic provided by the Central Oregon Visitors Association (COVA), Development Data Redmond Economic Development, Inc. (REDI), and the Central Oregon Association of Realtors (COAR). Presentations prepared by these groups are included as Attachment 3. The Oregon Aviation System Plan (OASP) was last prepared in 2007, and projects aviation activity through 2025. The forecast base year was 2005. The OASP projected that RDM would grow from 174,008 enplanements to 537,400 enplanements, based aircraft were expected to grow from 117 to 197, and total State Plans operations were going to grow from 62,708 to 95,330. In 2015, OASP enplanement projections were 19 percent higher than actual enplanements, operations projections were 21 percent higher, and based aircraft projections were 14 percent higher .

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