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Aviation Activity Forecasts MADRAS MUNICIPAL AIRPORT I AIRPORT MASTER PLAN Chapter 3 Aviation Activity Forecasts COVID-19 IMPACTS ON AVIATION ACTIVITY FORECASTS This forecast was prepared during the first full year of the COVID-19 pandemic. The disruption of airport activity experienced throughout the U.S. airport system related to COVID-19 in 2020 is unprecedented and has led to a significant decline in activity that is not consistent with recent historic trends. Although the limits of the current disruption have yet to be defined, it is believed that the underlying elements of demand within general aviation will remain largely intact until all public health constraints are fully addressed and economic conditions gradually return to normal. Two notable conditions are defined in these forecasts: 1. 2019 activity is used as the base for the updated twenty-year aviation activity forecast. 2019 represents a reasonable “pre-COVID” indication of current conditions and it was the last full calendar year of activity available at the time the forecasts were prepared. To simplify the projection, the 2019 data was carried forward to 2020, representing base year activity in the 2020- 2040 master plan forecast window. The twenty year forecasts are provided in five-year increments beginning in 2025. 2. The forecasts assume that current COVID-19 impacts on aviation activity at Madras Municipal Airport will not affect the 2025 forecast, or beyond. Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) forecast approval will be based in reference to the data and methodologies used and the conclusions at the time the document was prepared. However, consideration must still be given to the significant impacts of COVID-19 on aviation activity. As a result, there is lower than normal confidence in future growth projections. FAA approval of the forecast does not provide justification to begin airport development. Justification for future projects will be made based on activity levels at the time the project is requested for development, rather than this forecast approval. Further documentation of actual activity levels reaching the planning activity levels will be needed prior to FAA participation in funding for eligible projects. Introduction – Key Takeaways The evaluation of current and future activity at Madras Municipal Airport has documented several important takeaways that are critical in understanding the unique composition of the Airport’s air traffic and the significant changes that have occurred since the last master plan was completed in 2010. The current activityDRAFT and updated activity forecasts for Madras Municipal Airport documented in this chapter are significantly higher than any existing data or forecasts, including the previous airport master plan, the Oregon Aviation Plan v6.0 forecasts, the current FAA Terminal Area Forecast (TAF), and the current FAA 5010-1 Airport Record Form. The major change in activity experienced at the Airport over the last ten years reflects several key events that coincided with a focused effort by the City of Madras to actively seek and accommodate new airport users. DEVELOP UNDERSTANDING | AIRPORT ACTIVITY AND FORECASTS PAGE 3-1 MADRAS MUNICIPAL AIRPORT I AIRPORT MASTER PLAN Recent significant events at Madras Municipal Airport include: • The relocation/development of the Erickson Aero Tanker maintenance base added ten transport category aircraft (Airplane Design Group III and IV) and their associated aircraft operations to the Airport’s current baseline activity. • The addition of the Erickson Aircraft Collection museum increased the Airport’s active based aircraft count by 25 aircraft, generating more than 500 annual operations by a wide range of aircraft types. • USDA-FS coordinated wildfire aircraft assets and support crews are regularly dispatched to the Airport for several weeks during Oregon’s fire season. The majority of activity is generated by Type I-III helicopters and fixed-wing support aircraft. This activity accounted for about 4 percent of the estimated Airport operations in 2019, but the volume of flight activity is subject to fire demands and could increase/decrease in any given year. • Multiple large flight schools based at other nearby airports dispatch an average of 20 to 25 aircraft per day to Madras Municipal Airport for a variety of fixed-wing and helicopter flight training. Transient flight school aircraft accounted for more than 44 percent of the estimated Airport operations in 2019. • Skydive Awesome!, a locally-based skydiving operator, operates one aircraft seasonally with an average of 6 to 12 flights per day on active jump days, accounting for more than 4 percent of the estimated Airport operations in 2019. Introduction - Overview This chapter provides updated aviation activity forecasts for Madras Municipal Airport (S33) for the twenty-year master plan horizon (2020-2040). The most recent Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) approved aviation activity forecasts for Madras Municipal Airport were developed in the 2010 Airport Master Plan. The forecasts presented in this chapter are consistent with the current and historic role as a local general aviation airport. The forecasts are unconstrained and assume the City of Madras (City) will be able to make the facility improvements necessary to accommodate the anticipated demand unless specifically noted. The City will consider if any unconstrained demand will not or cannot be reasonably met through the evaluation of airport development alternatives later in the master plan. Madras Municipal Airport is capable of accommodating a full range of general aviation activity, including business class turboprops, business jets and helicopters. The Airport also accommodates significant transport category aircraft activity associated aerial firefighting. This level of capability expands the Airport’s role beyond local community and accommodates users throughout the region. Madras Municipal Airport is designated a Category IV – Local General Aviation airport in the 2019 Oregon Aviation Plan (OAP v6.0). The definition for Category IV airports is: “These airports support primarily single-engine general aviation aircraft but are capable of accommodating smaller twin-engine general aviation aircraft. These airports support local air transportation needs and special-use aviation activities.” In the federal airport system National Plan of Integrated Airport Systems (NPIAS), Madras Municipal Airport is classified as a “Local” Nonprimary General Aviation airport. The system role of Local airports is defined as follows: “Supplement local communities by providing access to markets within a State or immediate region. Local airports are most often located near larger population centers, but not necessarily in metropolitan or micropolitan areas. Most of the flying at local airports is by piston aircraft in support of business and personal needs. These airports typically accommodateDRAFT flight training, emergency services, and charter passenger service.” DEVELOP UNDERSTANDING | AIRPORT ACTIVITY AND FORECASTS PAGE 3-2 MADRAS MUNICIPAL AIRPORT I AIRPORT MASTER PLAN FAA Forecasting Process The FAA provides aviation activity forecasting guidance for airport master planning projects. FAA Advisory Circular (AC) 150/5070-6B, Airport Master Plans, outlines seven standard steps involved in the forecast process: 1. Identify Aviation Activity Measures: The level and type of aviation activities likely to impact facility needs. For general aviation, this typically includes based aircraft and operations. 2. Previous Airport Forecasts: May include the FAA Terminal Area Forecast (TAF), state or regional system plans, and previous master plans. 3. Gather Data: Determine what data are required to prepare the forecasts, identify data sources, and collect historical and forecast data. 4. Select Forecast Methods: There are several appropriate methodologies and techniques available, including regression analysis, trend analysis, market share or ratio analysis, exponential smoothing, econometric modeling, comparison with other airports, survey techniques, cohort analysis, choice and distribution models, range projections, and professional judgment. 5. Apply Forecast Methods and Evaluate Results: Prepare the actual forecasts and evaluate for reasonableness. 6. Summarize and Document Results: Provide supporting text and tables as necessary. 7. Compare Forecast Results with FAA’s TAF: Follow guidance in FAA Order 5090.5, Field Formulation of the National Plan of Integrated Airport Systems and Airport Capital Improvement Program. In part, the Order indicates that forecasts should not vary significantly (more than 10 percent) from the TAF. When there is a greater than 10 percent variance, supporting documentation should be supplied to the FAA. The aviation demand forecasts are then submitted to the FAA for their approval. KEY ACTIVITY ELEMENTS As noted above, general aviation airport activity forecasting focuses on two key activity segments: based aircraft and aircraft operations (takeoffs & landings). Detailed breakdowns of these activity segments include: • Aircraft fleet mix; • Peak activity; • Distribution of local and itinerant operations; and • Determination of the critical aircraft (also referred to as the design aircraft). The critical aircraft represents the most demanding aircraft type or family of aircraft that uses an airport on a regular basis (a minimum of 500 annual takeoffs & landings per year). The critical aircraft is used to establish a variety of FAA design categories, which then establish
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