The Success & Failure of Right-Wing Populist Parties in the Benelux Léonie de Jonge Department of Politics & International Studies Pembroke College, University of Cambridge May 2019 This dissertation is submitted for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy. Abstract This thesis investigates the variation in the electoral performances of right-wing populist parties in the Benelux region (i.e. Belgium, the Netherlands and Luxembourg). Despite numerous historical and political commonalities, right-wing populist parties have been more successful in the Netherlands and Flanders (i.e. the northern, Dutch-speaking part of Belgium) than in Luxembourg and Wallonia (i.e. the southern, French-speaking part of Belgium). The thesis sets out to explore ‘conventional’ explanations, including socio- economic indicators (i.e. demand-side factors), and institutional as well as party organisational features (i.e. supply-side explanations). The analysis suggests that demand for right-wing populist parties is relatively constant across the Benelux region, whereas the supply of such parties has been weaker in Wallonia and Luxembourg than in Flanders and the Netherlands. However, supply-side explanations cannot fully account for the variation in the electoral performances of right-wing populist parties. The research therefore focuses on the wider context in which party competition takes place by highlighting the role of mainstream parties and the media; taken together, they act as gatekeepers in the sense that they can facilitate or hinder access into the electoral market. By politicising issues that are traditionally ‘owned’ by the populist radical right (notably immigration), they can create favourable opportunity structures for right-wing populist parties to thrive. Empirical support is drawn from party manifestos as well as semi-structured interviews with media practitioners and politicians. In Flanders and the Netherlands, the decline of mainstream parties as well as changes in the media landscape have contributed to the radicalisation of the political discourse, which has created fertile ground for right-wing populist challengers. By contrast, Wallonia and Luxembourg have remained relatively immune to these tendencies: mainstream parties have (thus far) managed to hold on to their core electorates, while the media are generally hostile to the populist radical right. The thesis complements existing theoretical explanations by moving beyond the traditional demand- and supply-side framework. The findings suggest that the reactions of mainstream political parties and the media are crucial to understand the variation in the electoral performances of populist radical right parties in Europe. 1 Preface This dissertation is the result of my own work and includes nothing which is the outcome of work done in collaboration except as declared in the Preface and specified in the text. It is not substantially the same as any that I have submitted, or, is being concurrently submitted for a degree or diploma or other qualification at the University of Cambridge or any other University or similar institution except as declared in the Preface and specified in the text. I further state that no substantial part of my dissertation has already been submitted, or, is being concurrently submitted for any such degree, diploma or other qualification at the University of Cambridge or any other University or similar institution except as declared in the Preface and specified in the text. It does not exceed the prescribed word limit for the relevant Degree Committee. 2 Acknowledgments First and foremost, I thank my supervisor, Dr Julie Smith, for her unwavering support over the course of this project. Her sometimes tough but always fair and knowledgeable comments helped to make this thesis what it is. I could not have asked for better guidance. My sincere gratitude also goes to my second supervisor, Dr Pieter van Houten, for his helpful feedback on various chapters. Over seventy individuals kindly agreed to be interviewed for this thesis. Without them, this project would not have been possible, and I am grateful to every single one of them. I have also benefited greatly from the advice and encouragement of academics at other universities, who shared sources, sent articles, lent me books and made themselves available to meet or read my work. During my fieldwork in Belgium, I was fortunate to spend several weeks as a visiting scholar at the Université Libre de Bruxelles; I want to thank the entire CEVIPOL team, in particular Dr Emilie van Haute, for providing a supportive and stimulating working environment. I also owe thanks to Dr Philippe Poirier at the University of Luxembourg for his encouragement and support. Furthermore, I am grateful to all the teachers, coaches and mentors who have guided and encouraged me along the way, in particular Dr Geoffrey Edwards, Dr Robert Givens, Raymond Lamberty, Hermann Paar, Teresa Tande, Dr Aparna Thomas and Dr David Yamanishi; without them, I would not be where I am today. Over the course of my PhD, I was very fortunate to be surrounded by a dense network of colleagues, friends and family. Their support has been invaluable to my personal and intellectual growth, and they therefore deserve my deepest gratitude. Barry Colfer, Sean Fleming, Tobias Cremer, Philipp Hirsch, Anton Jäger, Lucia Linares, Tobias Müller, Alice Musabende, Joshua Smeltzer, Benjamin Studebaker and Maria Chiara Vinciguerra have been a wonderful source of wisdom and encouragement. Tobias Cremer, Judit Kuschnitzki, Tobias Müller and Marion Messmer have read various parts of the thesis, and I am thankful for their time and thoughtful comments. Sebastian Steingass deserves special mention for his feedback, advice and continuous support. Lys Differding has lent her artistic skills to various projects throughout my PhD research, including one of the figures presented in this thesis. Beyond this, I am 3 grateful for her friendship. I also owe thanks to Jacqueline de Jonge, Roeland and Maureen Douma-Arntz, Florent Dyé and Barbara Konijnenberg, who helped with translations. The staff at POLIS and Pembroke College also deserve to be recognised here; they have been incredibly supportive and forthcoming. In addition, I want to thank the Cambridge University Basketball Club for keeping me mentally (and physically) sane. Tim and Laura Weil deserve special mention for their dedication and support. I am also grateful to my friends at Pembroke College, in particular Florent Dyé, Judit Kuschnitzki, Matt Lim, Naciem Nikkhah, Ruizhi Wang and Noémie Borel; they have made this PhD journey very enjoyable. These acknowledgements would not be complete without mentioning my friends at home (in Luxembourg) and abroad. Their moral support has made all the difference. Special thanks are due to the School of Social Sciences and Humanities at the University of Cambridge for providing me with generous financial support throughout my doctorate. I received additional fieldwork funding and travel grants from Pembroke College and POLIS. Lastly, I want to thank my family. My cousins, aunts, uncles and grandmother have been a source of constant love and encouragement. I am particularly grateful to my siblings, Raoul and Mariëlle, and their wonderful partners, Marlene and Luca, for offering distraction from work as well as moral support whenever needed. My deepest gratitude goes to my parents, Reinald and Jacqueline, for teaching me what really matters in life. Ik hou van jullie. 4 Table of Contents Abstract .................................................................................................................... 1 Preface ..................................................................................................................... 2 Acknowledgments ................................................................................................... 3 List of Abbreviations ............................................................................................... 7 List of Tables ......................................................................................................... 12 List of Figures ........................................................................................................ 13 Chapter 1: Introduction ...................................................................................... 14 1.1. Key Concepts .............................................................................................. 17 1.2. Existing Research ....................................................................................... 22 1.2.1. Demand-Side Explanations .................................................................. 23 1.2.2. Supply-Side Explanations .................................................................... 23 1.2.3. Contextual Explanations ...................................................................... 24 1.2.4. Research Gaps ...................................................................................... 27 1.3. Research Design & Methodology ............................................................... 29 1.3.1. Sources & Methods .............................................................................. 31 1.3.2. Case Selection ...................................................................................... 35 1.4. Outline of the Thesis ................................................................................... 39 Chapter 2: Towards a Framework for Analysis ............................................... 41 2.1.