ANALYSIS OF SPATIAL PATTERNS OF SETTLEMENT, INTERNAL MIGRATION, AND WELFARE INEQUALITY IN ZIMBABWE 1 Analysis of Spatial Public Disclosure Authorized Patterns of Settlement, Internal Migration, and Welfare Inequality in Zimbabwe Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Rob Swinkels Therese Norman Brian Blankespoor WITH Nyasha Munditi Public Disclosure Authorized Herbert Zvirereh World Bank Group April 18, 2019 Based on ZIMSTAT data Zimbabwe District Map, 2012 Zimbabwe Altitude Map ii ANALYSIS OF SPATIAL PATTERNS OF SETTLEMENT, INTERNAL MIGRATION, AND WELFARE INEQUALITY IN ZIMBABWE TABLE OF CONTENTS ACKNOWLEDGMENTS iii ABSTRACT v EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ix ABBREVIATIONS xv 1. INTRODUCTION AND OBJECTIVES 1 2. SPATIAL ELEMENTS OF SETTLEMENT: WHERE DID PEOPLE LIVE IN 2012? 9 3. RECENT POPULATION MOVEMENTS 27 4. REASONS BEHIND THE SPATIAL SETTLEMENT PATTERN AND POPULATION MOVEMENTS 39 5. CONSEQUENCES OF THE POPULATION’S SPATIAL DISTRIBUTION 53 6. POLICY DISCUSSION 71 AREAS FOR FURTHER RESEARCH 81 REFERENCES 83 APPENDIX A. SUPPLEMENTAL MAPS AND CHARTS 87 APPENDIX B. RESULTS OF REGRESSION ANALYSIS 99 APPENDIX C. EXAMPLE OF LOCAL DEVELOPMENT INDEX 111 ACKNOWLEDGMENTS This report was prepared by a team led by Rob Swinkels, comprising Therese Norman and Brian Blankespoor. Important background work was conducted by Nyasha Munditi and Herbert Zvirereh. Wishy Chipiro provided valuable technical support. Overall guidance was provided by Andrew Dabalen, Ruth Hill, and Mukami Kariuki. Peer reviewers were Luc Christiaensen, Nagaraja Rao Harshadeep, Hans Hoogeveen, Kirsten Hommann, and Marko Kwaramba. Tawanda Chingozha commented on an earlier draft and shared the shapefiles of the Zimbabwe farmland use types. Yondela Silimela, Carli Bunding-Venter, Leslie Nii Odartey Mills, and Aiga Stokenberga provided inputs to the policy section. Han Herderschee contributed to the conceptualization of the work. Assistance was provided by Aimee Niane and Farai Sekeramayi Noble. Staff of the World Bank Harare office provided useful inputs during presentations of early findings. The team gratefully acknowledges the collaboration of the Zimbabwe National Statistics Agency (ZIMSTAT). iii iv ANALYSIS OF SPATIAL PATTERNS OF SETTLEMENT, INTERNAL MIGRATION, AND WELFARE INEQUALITY IN ZIMBABWE ABSTRACT Zimbabwe has an unusual settlement pattern due to its colonial legacy. A sizeable proportion of the rural population lives in densely populated areas that are far away from the main road network and poorly connected to markets. This study using data from ZIMSTAT’s 2012 poverty map and the 2002 and 2012 population census suggests the highest ward poverty rates and lowest social service delivery outcomes are found here. These communal lands are characterized by a deep spatial poverty trap. In 2012 two thirds of the extreme poor lived in these communal lands, and preliminary estimates suggest that this had risen to three quarters by 2017. Social outcomes such as education levels are typically also lowest here . Many of these spatial poverty traps are prominent in the northwest but are also found in other parts of the country. These communal lands typically have below average agricultural production potential and were designated during colonial times as lands where native African farmers could live and farm, creating space for the development of large-scale commercial farms mostly for people of European descent. Fast track land reform during the 2000s attempted to reverse the unequal land distribution. It led to substantial population movements, but insufficient communal farmers benefited to adequately resolve the spatial poverty trap and many remain with a weak asset base. During 2002-2012 around 410,000 people moved to the white commercial farm areas (urban and rural) of which around 290,000 came from communal lands and 110,000 from Harare. However, around 140,000 people moved in the other direction: from the commercial farming areas to communal lands. In 2012, 65 percent of the rural population still lived in communal lands (down from 70 percent in 2002). v vi ANALYSIS OF SPATIAL PATTERNS OF SETTLEMENT, INTERNAL MIGRATION, AND WELFARE INEQUALITY IN ZIMBABWE Nationwide, rural multi-dimensional poverty did not drop between 2001/2 and 2011/12. During the economic crisis of the 2000s, GDP fell, urbanization slowed, and a large part of the population went back to subsistence farming. Between 1999-2014, the proportion of the population engaged in unpaid or self- employed farming rose from 46 to 60 percent and average labor productivity in agriculture fell by 55 percent, according to labor force survey data. Fast track land reform did not structurally tackle the spatial poverty traps prevalent in the communal lands. While the communal areas are often densely populated they are located far from good roads. The existing trunk road network connects the towns located in the thinly populated commercial farm areas which were built to connect goods markets rather than people. High domestic transport costs between the northern maize-surplus and the southern maize-deficit production regions have contributed to the segmentation of the maize grain market1, according to a World Bank study of 2015, which has direct implications in terms of food security and demand stimulus for agricultural production in the high population density, high-poverty areas. Extreme poverty in communal lands is structurally higher than in areas dominated by other land-use types keeping everything else the same. Even when controlling for other factors such as gender ratios, distance factors, natural zones and education outcomes, people in communal lands have extreme poverty rates that are 5–7 percent higher than those living in other farm type areas. This reflects the structural lack of economic opportunities in these areas and the deep disadvantages and inequality of opportunity that people in these areas face. Several policy measures exist for tackling the spatial poverty traps. First, the government should ensure social service delivery policies are spatially blind in their design and universal in their coverage. This concerns the practical regulations that govern the social services such as education, health, and water and sanitation across the country as well as their affordability and how these are financed through tax and transfer mechanisms. To compensate for the lack of budget resources for non-wage expenses, the Government of Zimbabwe has expanded the use of user fees and charges for various social services. This has resulted in lower financing for basic services in poorer areas. Without appropriate mechanisms to equalize financing of basic services, Zimbabwe could find it difficult to reduce the current inequality of opportunity. 1 Mahdi, Bonato and Herderschee. 2015. ANALYSIS OF SPATIAL PATTERNS OF SETTLEMENT, INTERNAL MIGRATION, AND WELFARE INEQUALITY IN ZIMBABWE vii In the education sector, for example, the collection of revenue through private fees is skewing resources in a highly regressive manner (i.e. weighted towards the better-off). The decision to impose fees in all schools, while funding teacher salaries in private schools, left many vulnerable children at risk and transferred benefits to less poor households, according to the recently completed public expenditure review (PER) of the primary and secondary education sector. The currently constrained fiscal situation calls for focus on protecting the vulnerable, better coordination of the multiple social protection programs and better targeting of these programs to the most needy to provide them with opportunities to improve their lives. Second, the government should ensure adequate connectivity to these lagging areas through policies and investments to facilitate spatial integration. Examples include roads, railways, and communication systems that facilitate the movement of goods, services, people, and ideas locally, nationally, and internationally. Better connectivity will also help some people move out of these areas if they are too densely populated and they do not have the land assets they need to make a decent living. Third, there is a need to enact new laws to further decentralize decision making to Provincial and Metropolitan Councils and to improve distributional equity by aligning transfers with local needs and revenue capabilities. viii ANALYSIS OF SPATIAL PATTERNS OF SETTLEMENT, INTERNAL MIGRATION, AND WELFARE INEQUALITY IN ZIMBABWE EXECUTIVE SUMMARY This report aims to assess the spatial dimensions of settlement, internal migration, and welfare inequality in Zimbabwe, explore their linkages and implications, and identify policy options for addressing spatial disparities in social outcomes. The study looks at where people are today, unpacks urbanization trends, and reviews population density and connectivity. It assesses the reasons behind the spatial settlement patterns and discusses the consequences of the population’s spatial distribution in terms of poverty, nonfarm employment, and service delivery. Finally, it presents policy implications. The data used for this study mostly consist of statistics that originate from three ZIMSTAT reports (i) Zimbabwe Profile: Population Census 2002, (ii) National Report: Population Census 2012, and (iii) The food poverty atlas: small area food poverty estimation. The latter is based on the PICES 2011/12 survey and the 2012 population census. District summary data from the Central Business Register 2013 were also used, in addition to labor force survey data. The settlement pattern