TDA Thematic Report

RER/03/G41/A/1G/31: Reducing Trans-boundary Degradation of the Kura-Aras River Basin

TDA Thematic Report

CLIMATE CHANGE AND EVALUATION OF ENVIRONMENT VULNERABILITY IN KURA-ARAS BASIN

EXPERTS: N. A. BEGLARASHVILI, E. ELIZBARASHVILI

2006

TABLE OF CONTENT

INTRODUCTION ...... 3 1. ANALYSIS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ...... 5 1.1. HISTORICAL TRENDS OF TEMPERATURE CHANGE DURING THE LAST 50 YEARS IN THE KURA-ARAS RIVER BASIN...... 5 1.2. PROGNOSTIC ANALYSIS OF THE TRENDS OF CLIMATE CHANGES FOR THE COMING 30-50 YEARS ...... 13 2. EXPECTED CHANGES IN ENVIRONMENT, CAUSED BY CLIMATE CHANGE IN KURA-ARAS RIVER BASIN...... 16 2.1. IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON RIVER FLOW AND WATER RESOURCES ...... 16 2.2. IMPACT ON ECOSYSTEMS (DISAFFORESTATION, DESERTIFICATION) AND BIODIVERSITY...... 24 2.3. IMPACT ON AGRICULTURE...... 27 3. METHODS OF ADAPTATION FOR MITIGATION OF NEGATIVE IMPACTS ON ECOSYSTEMS AND ECONOMY IN THE BASIN...... 28 CONCLUSION ...... 30 ANNEX...... 33 REFERENCES ...... 34

Introduction

Rivers Kura and Aras represent the main water arteries of the South Caucasus, flowing through the territory of five states – Georgia, Azerbaijan, Armenia, Turkey and Iran.

Total length of the river Kura is 1515 km, Aras – the main tributary of Kura – 1072 km.

The river Kura basin, total catchment area of which is 188000 sq. m., covers in Georgia – 34700 sq. m., in Azerbaijan – 58000 sq. m., Armenia – 29800 sq. m., Iran and Turkey – 66000 sq. m. The river Aras basin, catchment area of which is 102000 sq. m., covers in Azerbaijan – 18740 sq. m., Armenia – 22090 sq. n., Turkey and Iran – 61000 sq. m.

Thus, the system of Kura and Aras rivers is the international river system, about ecological condition of which the above mentioned states should care. Nevertheless, according to the existing evaluations, this system is seriously degraded up to present.

The degradation of Kura-Aras basin will obviously go on under the impact of natural and anthropological factors, if the relevant measures aren’t taken for mitigation of negative affects of these factors. One of the main natural factors, affecting the ecosystem of this basin is global warming.

Changing, climate significantly influences natural ecosystems, and all spheres of economy of the countries of the basin. That’s why it’s expedient to consider the problem-solving of the region, related to the change of climatic conditions, in the framework of the whole river system.

The Kura-Aras river basin is characterized by complex physical-geographical conditions (fig. 1), which results in diverse types of climate, soil and natural landscapes.

In the report the current condition and possible scenarios of change of the climate in the basin are considered, as well as the influence of these changes on water regime of the rivers and water resources, ecosystem and economy of the region; also, the existing and proposed recommendations for mitigation of negative results of the change of climate on the region’s ecosystem and economy are considered.

The variants of possible variations of climate in the region, analyzed in the Report have been developed on the basis of scenarios of global change of climate, proposed by the World Mete- orological Organization, as well as with the consideration of the results of mathematical modeling of the total circulation of the atmosphere, in particular, on the basis of 9-level balanced model of the laboratory of hydrodynamics of Preston University in USA.

The evaluation of change of the river flowing has been performed in the basis of static analyses of hydrological lines of observation, as well as by means of mathematical model of formation of river flowing – standard methods of international projects.

1. ANALYSIS OF CLIMATE CHANGE

1.1. Historical trends of temperature change during the last 50 years in the Kura-Aras river basin

The problem of climate change is one of the urgent problems in present-day reality. In contem- porary researches the facts of different-scale climatic variations and changes have been established, taking place during the whole history of the Earth. During the period of instrumental meteorological observations since the end of the XVIII century some significant variations have been revealed, the most important of which took place during the last decades of the XX c. The main reason of these changes is the anthropological activities, combustion of carbonic fuel; during the last 50 years the rapid increase of carbonic and other greenhouse gases and the increase of global temperature connected with it have been observed.

The change of climate can cause very powerful ecological, social-economical and political affects for separate regions of the World and for the whole planet on the whole in the nearest future. That’s why the UN, as early as in 1992 has adopted the framework agreement on Climate Change, and the most of the countries have joined it, including whose of the Kura-Aras basin.

The current change of climate generally is evaluated on the basis of data in instrumental observations, carried out by local meteorological services. In the Kura-Aras basin, significant territory of which is occupied by Georgia, Azerbaijan and Armenia, and small territory – by Turkey and Iran, climate changes can be judged about on the basis of materials of researches, performed by the scientists of these countries [1-7, 9, 10]. By present time historical trends of change of temperature and precipitations, characterizing the main trends of climate change, have been developed on the basis of meteorological observations. As the result, it was established that in the conditions of global warming the temperature of air has generally increased, with the exception of Lenkoran zone, separate parts of East Georgia (parts of Javakheti upland region and inner Kartli) and north-east part of Iran, where certain decrease of temperature has been revealed. The historical trends of temperature, presented on the fig. 1.1.1., covering almost all the past century [1, 2], prove the above stated.

For the characterization of intensity of warming or cold snap, climatologists introduce the notion of the speed of temperature change during the last decade, which is calculated according to the historical linear trends. The speed of change of global air temperature, average for the Earth, is 0.05-0.07 0С for the decade [25]. In the conditions of the Kura-Aras river basin the speed of change of annual air temperature during the XX century has been changing in the wide range. It could be observed in the Table 1.1.1., where the speeds of change of average annual temperature in various physical-geographical conditions of the basin are presented [1, 2, 9, 10].

Fig. 1.1.1. Dynamics of air temperature anomaly (1 average annual temperature; 2 – cold season temperature; warm season temperature)

Gyanja

Djafarkhana

Shusha

9 Tbilisi

Table 1.1.1. Average speed of change of annual air temperature during the XX c., 0С/10 лет

Point Speed of tempera- Point Speed of temperature change ture change Akhalkalaki -0,01 Djafarkhan 0,08 Akhalstikhe -0,05 Gyanja 0,09 Akhmeta 0,07 Zakatala 0,07 Borjomi 0,11 Nakhichevan 0,06 Gardabani 0,07 Tbilisi 0,05 Telavi 0,04 Gori -0,03

The most significant warming within the basin occurred in Borjomi Gorge, Lower Kartli, on Great Caucasus, Kura-Aras lowland and Nakhichevan Autonomous Republic. Warming in these districts by its rate (0.10-0.13 0С during10 years) exceeds evaluations for the Earth on the whole. In addi- tion, in separate areas of the basin in Javakheti plateau, in Inner Kartli and north-east districts of 10 Iran even cold snap is noted. On the whole, on the most of the territory the temperature during the last century has increased by 0.03-0.060С per decade.

On the background of global warming the sharp change of precipitation regime was not observed. It is proved by characteristic historical trends of annual summary precipitations in the basin, presented on fig. 1.1.2.

Gianja

Nakhichevan

In accordance with the conducted research, in most of the districts some changes of annual summary precipitations of different intensity have taken place [2-7, 9, 10]. The speed of decrease made 2-12 mm of the annual summary precipitation for 10 years. The most significant decrease was noted in west Azerbaijan, less significant – in east Georgia, on Kura-Aras lowland on Iranian territory (up to 3mm); practically no changes have taken place in precipitation regime in the Small Caucasus and Nakhichevan AR.

Thus, on the background of warming within the Kura-Aras basin, mainly the decrease of precipitation was noted. At the same time, with the high anomalies of temperature (over 2%), in comparison to low anomalies, far less precipitations fall. Consequently, there is a feedback between annual summary precipitations and anomalies of temperature.

1.2. Prognostic Analysis of the Trends of Climate Changes for the Coming 30-50 Years

By present time scientists have developed diverse scenarios of possible changes of global climate in the future. All of them show that the already begun global warming can lead to the change of precipitation zones and temperature rise in the XXI c. These changes will be particularly noticeable in high latitudes. In global climate scenarios on the basis of physical-mathematical modeling it has 0 been concluded that doubling of СО2 and, as a result, global warming 1.5-4.5 , is expected as early as in 30-ies of the XXI c. Global warming and subsequent intense melting of snow and ice will result into the rise of the level of Pacific Ocean by 120-140 cm [25].

The World Meteorological Organization has proposed 4 scenarios of global climate change in XXI century: A, B, C and D. Average speed of annual temperature change, in accordance with scenario A will make 0.3 0, scenario B – 0.2 0 ,scenario C – 0.1 0, scenario D - less than 0.1 0С per 10 years. On the basis of these assumptions expected changes of average annual air temperature meanings have been calculated for Caucasian territory [8]. On fig.1.2.1. the map of possible change of average annual air temperature according to scenario A in Caucasus during the XXI c. on the whole, is presented. In accordance with the map, average possible speed of temperature change on the most of Azerbaijanian territory will make 0.31-0.35 0, on the territory of east Georgia – 0.21-0.30, and on Armenian territory – 0.16-0.25 0С per 10 year. Thus, by the middle of the XXI c. average air temperature in the basin may increase by 1.5-2.0 0С [8]. More significant temperature rise in the basin – by average 4.0 0 and more, is expected according to the results of calculation in accordance with the models of common circulation of the atmosphere on the assumption of doubling of concentration of СО2. In accordance to these models, the change of annual summary precipitations

13 will trend to decrease, and on the whole their variation is expected within ±10-15%, which is generally less than their natural historical variation. Statistic variation of linear trend of precipitations is not high either. Though, these models do not describe the present-day condition of climate satis- factorily [2].

For more precise evaluation of possible climatic changes numerical experiments have been conducted on the basis of spectral analysis of time lines of annual temperature with the consideration of cyclic recurrence. It is visually demonstrated on fig. 1.2.2, where it can be observed that in spite of inequality of variation processes in different physical-geographical conditions of the basin, the linear trend of temperature is positive everywhere [2].

With the consideration of extrapolation of patterns of variation processes up to 2030, in aggre- gate with linear trend, scenarios of expected meanings of annual air temperature for five-year periods have been developed, e.g. for Azerbaijan, which are provided in table 1.2.1. [2].

Table 1.2.1. Expected meanings of annual air temperature in various regions of Azerbaijan

Zone 2006- 2011- 2016- 2021- 2026- -2010 -2015 -2020 -2025 -2030 Apsheron 14.6 14.0 14.8 14.8 14.0 Lenkoran zone 15.2 14.7 15.3 15.5 14.8 Talysh mountains 12.1 11.5 11.7 11.8 11.3 Kura-Aras lowlands 15.6 15.2 15.7 16.1 15.3 Kazakh-Gyanja 14.1 14.0 14.0 14.8 13.8 South slopes of Great Caucasus 10.8 11.0 10.5 11.7 10.7 Shemakha 10.2 10.2 9.8 10.6 9.3 East slopes of Small Caucasus 10.0 9.6 9.6 10.1 9.3 North slopes of Small Caucasus 7.1 7.6 6.8 8.2 6.6 Plane part of Nakhichevan AR 14.8 13.8 14.6 14.5 14.4 Foothill part of Nakhichevan AR 11.5 12.2 11.1 12.4 10.8

As it is seen from the table, maximum meanings of annual temperature are expected in 2021- 2025, with the exception of Tashir Mountains and plane part of Nakhichevan AR (2006-2010). In accordance with the same data, minimum temperature meanings are expected in 2026-2030 in Tashir Mountains, Kazakh-Gyanja and Shemakh zones, on east and north slopes of Small Caucasus, north-east slope of Great Caucasus and Foothill part of Nakhichevan AR. In Apsheron, Lenkoran zone and Kura-Aras lowlands minimum temperature meanings are expected in 2011-2020, and on south slope of Great Caucasus and plane part of Nakhichevan AR – in 2001-2005. In conclusion it should be noted that on the whole on the territory of Kura-Aras basin in XXI c. warming of climate is expected, and according to the existing trend scenarios, average annual temperature will increase up to 1.5-2 0. Annual precipitation amount will not change or will decrease insignificantly. These very scenarios are considered by scientists in the process of evaluation of potential influence of environment and development of strategies of adaptation measures for climate change in Kura-Aras basin.

2. EXPECTED CHANGES IN ENVIRONMENT, CAUSED BY CLIMATE CHANGE IN KURA-ARAS RIVER BASIN

2.1. Impact of climate change on river flow and water resources

As it was stated in section1, on the background of global warming, existent on the Earth, the reaction of climatic system in South Caucasian Region, in particular in Kura-Aras basin turned out to be heterogeneous. Naturally, various reaction of flow on heterogeneous climatic changes should be expected in the basin. Climatic changes, and first of all, variation of temperature and precipitations, moisture content in the atmosphere, affecting the components of hydrological cycle – evaporation, evacotranspiration, snow-rain and glacial feed, filtration, ground waters, river flow – cause the change of their regimes. According to the information, communicated by hydro-meteorological services of South Caucasian Republics, the frequency of hydro- meteorological occurrences (floods, mudflows, snow slides) has increased during the last decades. Though, statistical analysis ob observation data, confirming this occurrence, as well as investigation of connection of increase of intensity and frequency of, e.g. floods with global warming are not given. But physically it could be explained by the fact, that the rise of air temperature causes the increase of evaporation and the amount of water vapor in air increases. 16 That’s why the warmer atmosphere, containing more water vapor, is potentially more danger- ous from the point of view of increase of energy of development of extreme occurrences. Thus, one of the most significant consequences of heterogeneousness of climatic changes can be various reaction of river flows, change of their hydrological regime and water resources in the basin on the whole.

Ensuring of sustainable development of industry branches, especially agriculture and hydro- energetics, water supply of the population and operation of waterworks systems of water resources in many respects depend upon the tendencies of these changes. Statistical analysis of the trends of annual flow changes in Kura-Aras basin included [13-15, 22, 23]: construction and analysis of the set of diagrams, including dynamics, difference curves and integral curves of flow; calculation of linear trends, check of their statistical significance; calculation and comparison of statistical characteristics for various multi-year periods of time.

In calculations the data of all hydrological section lines have been used, where the duration of observations of flow were conducted during more than 40 years. The results of these calculations are provided according to [22].

The river Mtkvari. Complex statistical analysis of multi-year lines of annual river flow showed, that the trends of its changes have very complicated and homogeneous character. We will briefly review their key peculiarities. The analysis of lines of annual flow of the river Mtkvari showed that on the territory of Georgia significant statistical trends of flow changes are absent. On Likani section line weak positive trend is traced, and on Tbilisi section line it wasn’t detected practically (fig. 2.1.1).

Fig. 2.1.1. Changes of annual flow of the river Kura – st. Tbilisi during the period 1930-1995

In multi-year variations of annual flow of the river Mtkvari on the territory of Azerbaijan negative linear trend has been revealed. Though, the values of trend on various section lines differ significantly. The most significant trend is noted on Mingechauri section line (fig. 2.1.2.). Dur- ing the period 1938-1998, according to the evaluation of the trend, annual flow has decreased almost by 200 m3/sec, i.e. 50% of its volume. Little less is the trend on Sabirabad section line. The line flow trend on final section line near Salyany (fig. 2.1.3.) is much less and is evaluated at about 130 m3/sec.

Fig. 2.1.2. Changes of annual flow of the river Kura – st. Mingechaur during the period 1938-1998

Fig. 2.1.3. Changes of annual flow of the river Kura – st. Salyany during the period 1938-1998

The least significant negative trend has been noted on st. Zadrob section line, and from statistical point of view this trend is insignificant. On the rest section lines the trend evaluation is significant at 90% probability and for Mingechaur and Sabirabad – at more than 95% probability.

Rivers, flowing into Kura upstream of Mingechauri reservoir. It has been established that in these rivers differently directed flow changes occur. Thus, on the river Great Liakhvi – st. Kekhvi, river Aragvi – st. Zhinvali, the linear trend is positive (fig. 2.1.4). Obviously it is connected with the intense melting of glaciers, existing in the basins of these rivers, conditioned by the warming during the last 2-3 decades. On the river Algety – st. Partskhisi the trend is practically absent. And on section line of the river Ktsia-Khrami – st. Dagetkhachin, river Agstev – st. Ijevan, river Iori – st. Lelovani, etc. – on the contrary, the trend is negative (fig. 2.1.5). For the latter three rivers it can be explained, on the one hand, by the decrease of precipitations, and on the other hand – increase of evaporations from watersheds.

Fig. 2.1.4. Changes of annual flow of the river Aragvi – st. Zhinvali during the period 1938-1995

The river Aras. On main section lines of the river Aras negative trends of annual flow change have been revealed (fig. 2.1.6). For all that, if in lower course of the river the trends are significant with 90% probability and in upper section line the evaluations of the trends do not exceed the faults of their defi- nition.

The river Aras tributaries. In annual flow lines of these rivers positive, as well as negative trends have been observed. On the river Vokhchi in Kafan section line the increase of annual flow is observed (fig. 2.1.7). It can be the result of melting of glaciers. On the rivers Vorotan – village Vorotan, Azat – st. Garni, Sevjur – st. Zeiva, etc. – on the contrary – negative linear trend is observed (fig. 2.1.8). There are no glaciers in the watersheds of the rivers Sevjur and Azat, and the flow decrease is connected with the drying up of their basins.

Fig. 2.1.5. Annual flow changes of the rivers Ktsia - Khrami st. Dagetkhachin during the period 1938-1996

Fig. 2.1.6. Annual flow changes of the river Aras – st. Saatly during the period 1965-1996

Fig. 2.1.7. Annual flow changes of the river Vokhchi – st. Kafan during the period 1944-1987

Fig. 2.1.8. Annual flow changes of the river Sevjur – st. Zeive during the period 1942-1985

During the period 1942-1987 annual flow of the river Sevjur – st. Zeiva has decreased almost by 13 m3/с, i.e. more than 50% of its norm, which was caused by water offtakes. Trends on the river Elegis on section line Shatin and river Kasakh on section line Zovuni are not significant.

The river Alazani. On all reviewed section lines of the river Alazani significant statistical trends have not been found. At the same time the linear trend on Bikriani section line is negative, and on Shakriani section line is practically absent.

The rivers, flowing into the river Mtkvari within Kura-Aras lowlands. The analysis of data of hydrometric observations showed that on the rivers, flowing into the river Mtkvari within the Kura-Aras lowlands positive, as well as negative trends of multi-year variations of annual flow are found.

In the result of the performed statistical analysis is was established that on number of south Caucasian rivers (or certain sections of those) statistically significant decrease of annual flow occur. Though, it should be stressed that the performed trend evaluations and other statistical calculations represent diagnostic operations and only on the basis of those the conclusions could be made concerning the causes (natural and anthropogenic) of these changes, so the issues of the river flow changes, caused by climatic variations and anthropogenic influence must be considered separately.

In the result of calculations on the basis on mathematical model of formation of the river flow (see Annex) it has been established that physical-geographical, landscape and, in particular, climatic conditions affect the reaction of flow against climatic changes in different ways, defining different values and signs of the flow sensitiveness. E.g. it is shown that the flow sensitiveness against the change of sum of precipitations and air temperature (radiation balance) on watershed have opposite signs [13-16].

For the river Kura basin – st. Tbilisi (average height 1710 m, watershed area 21100 km2) low values of flow coefficient - к = 0.30 – 0.40 are characteristic. Consequently, the flow sensitivity against air temperature changes (radiation balance) is much higher than the sensitivity against the variation of summary precipitations. In this case, reaction of flow on climatic changes on watershed has complicated nature. E.g. the increase of annual summary precipitations by 10% and increase of temperature by 1-2 0С leads to the increase of flow by 5 – 20%. 21 In the case of increase of precipitations by 5% at analogous temperature variations causes insignificant decrease or even decrease of flow up to 10%. Against the background of permanent precipitations the increase (decrease) of temperature by 20С causes the decrease (increase) of flow over 20%. On the assumption of the most probable climatic scenario, according to which precipitations do not change, and the temperature on watershed increases by 0.5-10С, the decrease of flow will make 5-10%. In extreme cases, when increase of temperature by 20С and decrease of summary precipitations by 10% is expected on the watershed, climatic decrease of the river Kura flow must comprise approximately 50% of the norm. This result is in good accordance with the evaluations on the basis of empiric-statistical models [13-15] and it can be physically explained by the fact that total precipitation increase on the watershed results in the increase of runoff. Increase of air temperature is accompanied by intensification of evaporation processes, resulting in the reverse effect – decrease of runoff in a closing section. Total effect [with increase or decrease] in each specific case, will depend upon the correlation of sensitivity of runoff with precipitation and temperature change.

Let us briefly review the results of anthropogenic changes of water resources in Kura-Aras river basin [17, 22, 23]. General evaluation of water resources for Georgia, Armenia and Azer- baijan is presented in documents [17, 21]. The evaluation of anthropological changes of water resources and water regimes of the rivers of Kura-Aras basin is presented in [17, 22, 23], according to which water resources of the river Kura up to Mingechauri are estimated at 15.9 km3/year, up to the river Aras inflow - 18.5 km3/year, and in total for the whole basin - 28.2 km3/year, including the river Aras basin - 9.7 km3/year.

Water resources of the South Caucasian rivers are of great importance for the economy of the region. They are widely used for irrigation of lands, supplying with water of settlements and industrial facilities, energy production, etc. Existence of land resources and favorable soil- climatic conditions has pre-determined the development of diversified agriculture in the countries of the region.

It is well known that in South Caucasian states irrigation is implemented since ancient times. But large scale construction of water facility systems and their operation began after 30-ies of the XX c. It lead to the widening of irrigated areas almost in 2.5-fold. At the same time, summary flow inputs for irrigation significantly increased. In 90-ies of the last century, in connection with social-economic crisis, caused by the collapse of Soviet Union, stabilization of total area of irrigated lands occurred in Georgia, Azerbaijan and Armenia. At present the area of irrigated lands in these countries make about 1950 thousand hectares.

Simultaneously, other kinds of anthropogenic activities were carried out in the region: bog rec- lamation, construction of reservoirs, canals and collectors.

Reservoirs of the specified countries are of irrigational-energy supply purpose; among them the largest are Mingechaur, Shamkir, Aras, Sarsan, Enikend, Sioni, Samgori, Tsalka, Zhinvali, Ar- pilich, Aparan, Akhurian and Spandarian reservoirs.

According to [22], for the river Kura – st. Mingechaur section line the evaluation of anthropological flow change has been carried out for the period 1953-1996 against the preceding condi- tional-natural period (1936-1952) by means of equation of regression, linking the annual flow with natural factors. According to this equation the annual flow is calculated for the period 1953-1996 and according to the difference between the observed and calculated flow the value of its change in the final section line under the influence of economical activities is evaluated. In particular it has been established that the reduction of annual flow of the river Kura near Mingechaur made average 0.5 km3/year during 1961-1977, and by 1990 it reached 2.0 km3/year. At present the value of decrease of annual flow is approximately the same.

22 The occurred changed of the annual flow in the final section line of the river Aras – st. Saatly were calculated by means of analysis of dynamics of summary flow losses in the basin, defined according to the difference between water resources and flow in the final section line. It was established that in the river Aras basin the annual changes of the value of flow losses during 1961-1970 made 3.8 km3/year, and during 1971-1980 – as much as 5.0 km3/year. Maximum value – about 5.7 km3/year occurred in early 80-ies, which was followed by certain decrease. During the last ten years the value of losses made 5.0-5.4 km3/year.

The evaluation of annual flow changes and flow change during vegetation period in the result of economical activities on the whole for the river Kura basin, was performed by means of regression equations. The calculated parameters of these equations are: annual flow and flow of the river Kura during the vegetation period in the mouth, accumulation in Mingechaur reservoir during the year and during the vegetation period, as well as summary flow according to collectors during the year and vegetation period. Drawdowns from the lake Sevan have also been taken into account.

It was established, that during 1953-1970 the annual flow of the river Kura in the final section line Salyany in average have decreased against the preceding period (1936-1952) by 36 м3/sec (1.1 km3/year), i.e. by 6.4%, and the flow during the vegetation period – by 58 м3/sec (1.8 km3/year), i.e. by 8.5%. During 1971-1980 the flow decrease made 2.0 km3/year. During the following years (1981-2000) the volume of the river Kura flow decrease in the mouth varied in the range of 1.5-2 km3/year [22]. In the document [23] the changes of climatic factors in the river Kura basin were also investi- gated. On the fig. 2.1.10 the diagrams of the course of anomalies of air temperature, annual summary precipitations for the river Kura, as well as annual flow in the river mouth are shown. The analysis of the presented diagrams shows that linear trend in multi-year variation of precipitations is absent.

For the line of air temperature positive trend has been revealed and for the line of annual flow – negative trend. On the basis of the water resource of the river Kura basin for long period it can be stated that the decrease of the river Kura flow in the mouth is partially connected with the increase of air temperature, as the latter represents the factor, facilitating the increase of evaporation. Thus, the decrease of the river Kura flow in the mouth in general is conditioned by different kinds of economic activities, carried out in the river basin and its bed. As it has been states above, there are a lot of reservoirs, system of irrigation canals, over 200 water intake pumping stations, etc. in the basin.

The results of the works of foreign explorers show, that at present the increase of air temperature by 0.4-0.6°С is not dramatically reflected in the change of river flow where the trends in the lines of precipitations are absent, and it is in good conformity with the results of calculations of the river flow changes under the influence of temperature and precipitation variations in the watershed, reviewed above.

In our opinion, the most probably sharpening of the problem of water supply during the coming decades can be connected, first of all, with anthropogenic decrease of flow of trans-boundary rivers in the result of development of construction of water facilities, mainly in Georgia and Armenia. This problem is very urgent in Azerbaijan, as up to the present it has nit concluded intergovernmental agreements on usage of flow of trans-boundary rivers: Kura, Aras, Alazani, Iori, Akstafachay, etc.

Fig. 2.1.10. Multi-year course of anomalies of annual summary precipitations (1), (air temperature (2) in the river Kura basin and annual flow in the mouth (3).

2.2. Impact on ecosystems (disafforestation, desertification) and biodiversity

The river Kura-Aras basin is characterized by exceptional diversity of natural ecosystems, which is conditioned by various physical-geographical and climatic peculiarities. In the result of anthropogenic influence, the ecosystems of the basin have dramatically changed. In particular, the areas of forests and steppes have decreased. Degradation of natural ecosystems in connection with the global warming will continue and strengthen.

According to the performed researches, in the case of average annual temperature by 1.5-20С the transformation of ecosystems will proceed in two directions: transformation of the scheme of vertical zoning and significant change of typological structure of the ecosystem [9].

In particular, for the territory of Armenia we have found out the following: the displacement of borders of landscape zones by 150-200 m up the hilly profile, widening of area of desert-semi- desert zone, desertification, approaching of semi-desert to the lower border of the forest, lessening of the area of lakes and drying of saline bogs, disappearance of number of vegetation communities, connected with over-moisturized ecotopes. Meadow areas will decrease; endemic and rare species of plants, which will have nowhere to retreat, will be under the threat of disappearance [4].

Analogous displacement of ecosystem borders (150-180 m upward) is expected in east Georgia and Azerbaijan. As a result, the upper border of forest cover will move and force out alpine haylands and pastures, in other cases it will lead to their disappearance due to the limited height of the mountains. It will force the villagers to change their mode of living, which is very diffi- cult in high mountain conditions, or will initiate migration process, which in its turn, along with other negative affects, will lead to the overpopulation of big cities and worsening of living conditions of the population [9, 10].

In sub-alpine zone, where the haylands and pastures are located, the change of climate first of all will touch middle water-resistant plants, which are widely spread up to heights of 2600 m. The change of climate will significantly affect middle water-resistant alpine grounds. In the case of droughts many vulnerable highly nutritious plants will change the rhythm of development and die. Their place will be occupied by drought-resistant agrestal plants. Computer- 24 based (quantitative) experiments were performed on climate change without change of landscape structure [11]. Imitation of possible increase of global temperature by 20С, without change of precipitations – which nears the obtained scenarios, first of all, reflected upon the height of snow cover. According to this imitation, average annual amount of snow cover on the whole for the Caucasus can decrease by one third. Significant difference was revealed in dynamics of snow cover. If in average multi-year cross-section maximum falls on February and makes 37 cm, according to the experiment, the height of snow cover in January and Febru- ary will be equal and make about 20 cm. As a result, phytomass of grass plants can possible decrease by 0.05 t/hectare, i.e. by 10%. Exceptions will be the landscapes of Great and Small Caucasus, where it can increase, which, obviously, is connected with the fact that the limiting factor in the highlands, defining the amount of phytomass, is not the precipitations, but temperature. Consequently, the increase of temperature can cause rapid grow of plant phytomass in high mountain-forest, high mountain-sub-alpine and alpine landscapes. The increase of phytomass will be reflected upon the phytomass of leaves of wood-bush plants. Their quantity will insignificantly increase.

The change of climatic conditions will be directly reflected upon the landscape structure, as the main factor of formation of the latter is just the climate, in particular, the conditions of warmth and moistening. It can be well observed in Table 2.2.1, where the climate parameters of Cauca- sian landscape zones on the whole are presented [12].

Table 2.2.1. Climatic characteristics of Caucasian landscape zones

Annual Radiation dry- Average annual air temperature, 0С summary ness index (radiation balance, kcal/cm2гyear) precipita- <-9 -9...-5 -5...-1 -1...3 3...5 5...7 7...11 >11 tions, mm (<20) (20-25) (20-30) (30-45) (40-42) (43-46) (46-53) (52-60) ≤ 350 >3.0 ------H DS 350-500 1.8-3.0 ------FGR C 500-1000 0.5-1.8 ------NOPRF BE >1000 <0.5 V U3 U2 U1 Т2 Т1 N А

In the Table flat landscapes are presented: sub-alpine sub-humid (A), subtropical sub-humid (B), subtropical sub-arid (C), subtropical arid (D), moderate-warm sub-humid (E), moderate sub-humid (F), sub-arid (G) and arid (H); mountainous landscapes: moderate warm humid (N), moderate humid (O), sub-humid (P), sub-arid (R) and arid (S), moderate-cold middle-mountain dark-coniferous forest (Т1), forest pine and birchen (Т2), high mountain sub-alpine forest-bush- meadow (U1), high mountain alpine bush-meadow (U2), high mountain subniveal (U3), glacial- niveal (V).

As it can be seen in the Table, to each type of natural landscapes correspond certain intervals of values of radiation balance (or temperature) and radiation index of dryness (precipitations). The first one characterizes thermal energetic basis of natural landscapes, the second – the conditions of moistening. It can also be concluded that the main forming factor of subtropical and sub- Mediterranean flat landscapes (V, B, C, D, E) are precipitations. That’s why, for the transformation of these landscapes into another subtropical type the change of multi-year regime of precipitations is enough. in Particular, potential possibility of desertification (transformation into type D) is admissible, e.g. for landscaped of type B, covering significant part of the basin’s territory, if the annual summary precipitations will be less than 350 mm. Consequently, the main reason of desertification of steppe and semi-desert landscapes can be not the increase of temperature due to global warming, but the increase of re-occurrence of droughts, which, naturally, can result from the transformation of circulation processes in the result of global warming. For the territory of Georgia it was estimated that the possibility of desertification of the 25 landscapes makes 30%, for the rest of the basin’s territory this possibility can be much higher. Significant anthropogenic factor adds to this, which will finally define the conditions of desertification.

The main landscape forming factor in mountains is warmth, which can be explained by low evaporation. From the Table 2.2.1 it can be concluded that the alpine bush-meadow landscapes 0 0 (U2), which are limited by isotherms -5 and -1 , can be transformed into sub-alpine forest- 0 bush-meadow landscapes (U1), if average annual temperature increases by average 2-4 С without the change of the volume of precipitations. The climatic conditions of the possible transformation of landscapes can the judged about in more details on the basis of the diagram on fig. 2.2.1 [8].

On fig. 2.2.1 the arrows show the direction of the process of transformation of landscapes. The numbers near the arrows represent criteria-values of average annual air temperature and annual summary precipitation, which are necessary for the transformation of one landscape type into another.

26 The presented diagram suggests that the global warming, first of all, will affect the mountain landscapes. In particular, the increase of temperature by 20С the high-mountain sub-niveal landscapes (U3) can be transformed into high mountain alpine-bush-meadow (U2), and the latter – into high mountain sub-alpine forest-bush-meadow (U1), etc. – into forest pine and birchen (Т2), dark coniferous (Т1), and moderate warm (N, O, P, R), and the glacial-niveal zone will be significantly reduced.

However, depending upon the regime of day and night, certain deviation of transformation processes from this general diagram is possible. In particular, the most negative consequences are expected in the regions, where on the background of warming the precipitations will decrease – the re-occurrence and duration of droughts will increase. It will lead to the reduction of forest areas, diversity of dendroflora, specific volume of drought-resistant plants will increase. The same processes, in central and east regions of Great Caucasus and some regions of Small Caucasus, can cause significant degradation of alpine pastures.

2.3. Impact on agriculture

In the process of evaluation of climate change on productivity of agricultural crops the scientists have used various approaches and methods of mathematical modeling. Consequently, the obtained results not always coincide, and sometimes contradict.

For the territory of Azerbaijan five variants of regional climate scenarios have been reviewed. According to the scenario, where the air temperature increases by 20С and the amount of precipitations is unchangeable, in the case of doubling of СО2 concentration, the increase of winter wheat yield may be 36-64% [24]. In the case of analogous temperature increase, but deficit of precipitations, and, consequently, increase of intensity of droughts, Georgian scientists forecast sharp decrease of yield of grain crops [9]. In particular, if in the process of formation of genera- tive organs of wheat the air temperature exceeds the critical value (360С), the generation of organic substances in plants will be stopped and consequently the yield will decrease.

With the increase of temperature by 2 0, the sum of active temperatures increases by 400-600 0, which can lead to the spatial displacement of the crops by 300-350 meters upward. The increase of re-occurrence of droughts and intensification of evaporation will facilitate the decrease of maize yield by 20-30%.

The researches showed, that on significant territory of the river Kura-Aras basin the most vulnerable towards the climate change are wheat, maize, sunflower, tobacco, sugar-beet, potato. The high level of vulnerability of these crops is conditioned by the decrease of precipitations in the result of warming and increase of re-occurrence of droughts, increase of soil humidity, etc. which affects the yield figures. Vine is less vulnerable towards these processes.

On the whole, the climate change in region can cause vertical displacement of agro-climatic zones, increase of duration of vegetation period. In the result of climate aridness the productivity of agricultural crops will slightly decrease [2,9,10,24].

27 3. METHODS OF ADAPTATION FOR MITIGATION OF NEGATIVE IM- PACTS ON ECOSYSTEMS AND SOME FIELDS OF ECONOMY IN THE BASIN

Agriculture is the most vulnerable towards the climate change, that’s why the development of correct strategy for implementation of adaptation measures in agriculture is of utmost importance. In accordance with the scenarios of climate change in the Kura-Aras river basin, specified in the above section, the following adaptation measures are recommended to be taken in agriculture:

1. Creation of drought-resistant, high-yield species of agricultural crops (wheat, maize, sunflower, tobacco, vine, etc.). For this purpose in-depth investigation of genetic potential; of local species is required, which will allow to find out the adaptation ability of these crops towards the climate changes. At the same time, the intensity of climate change is to be considered. Thus, in the case of slow climate change, the time is enough for gradual adaptation to replace crops, choose the most suitable species, change technology, etc. And the main direction of development of adaptation measures is the specific adaptation of cropping. In this connection in the document [24] the issues of specific adaptation of winter wheat in the con- text of slow changes of climate.

Three variants of sums of effective temperatures of vegetation period were considered: in the case of average multi-year values (variant without specific adaptation), in the case of increase by 50 0 (variant with adaptation of species), and in the case of increase by 100 0 (variant with transfer to winter species).

The first variant presented the evaluation of vulnerability of winter wheat. The second variant showed that in all zones of Azerbaijan the yield would increase by 19-36% against the norm, or 11-25% against the first variant. In the case of transfer to more late species, the increase of yield will increase up to 48% and 39% accordingly.

In the third variant, with the introduction of later species in cropping, the increase of yield would vary in wide range, from 3 to 45% against the existing norm, or in the range of 15-48% against the first variant. In these researches it was assumed that agro- technical activities to be implemented in the future for cropping, will stay on the present-day level.

Thus, in the process of model climate changes the most favorable conditions for winter wheat cropping are created.

The yield of winter wheat will suffer from negative affects of anomalous weather conditions, the probability of which increases more and more. Among those conditions is the intense rain, which facilitates the lying down of the crops. And the latter is one of the reasons of yield containment. It leads to the 20-30% reduction of yield, worsens the quality of grains and straw, makes difficulties for harvesting.

Negative affects of lying down can be reduced by implementation of agro-technical and organizational activities: treatment of plants with retardants, re-equipment of reapers, introduction of balanced doses of fertilizers, etc.

Droughts and hot winds make most harm to spring grain crops. In such cases, yield can decrease by 70-80%. Significant measure of fighting against drought is the increase of 28 frequency of watering with small quantities of water – capillary irrigation. Besides, cropping of drought-resistant shallow and productive species of winter wheat is recommended. 2. Proper planning of agro-technical measures with the purpose of preservation of soil productivity and improvement of its bio-physical properties, moisture capacity, erosion- resistance, which will significantly decrease the emission of hothouse gases and will ensure certain decrease of negative affect of droughts. 3. Replacement of spring crops (wheat, barley) by winter crops. 4. Reconstruction, widening and full usage of the existing irrigation systems, with the purpose of provision of crops with moisture and obtaining high and quality yield. 5. Creation of the integrated system of agricultural management, which will ensure the development of new technologies and their wide introduction-implementation, which, in its turn, will allow raising the effectiveness of agriculture. 6. Full, scientifically grounded information of agrarian communities about the results of development of adaptation measures against the negative affects of climate changes.

The change of climate, as it was specified in the above sections, and more frequent droughts and floods, possibly connected with it, can significantly affect the basin’s water resources. It can negatively affect economical activities in various fields of economy, With the purpose of reduction of negative results of influence of climate changes on water resources of the Kura- Aras basin, the following recommendations are proposed [9,10]:

1. Rational usage of water resources. Preservation of water resources requires the rehabili- tation and extension of the existing waterworks systems, construction of new facilities (dams, canals, etc.), and improvement of the existing systems of water consumption and water usage with maximum consideration of ecological issues, emerging in this process. 2. Reduction of flooding risks. With the purpose of protection against flooding on the main rivers (Kura, Aras) of the basin and their high-water tributaries the construction of water reservoirs is recommended on the basis of thorough evaluation of the effect of this construction, as well as reservoirs, on the environment. After flooding the river beds must be regularly cleaned. It’s recommended to develop dispatching schedules of emergency water discharge from reservoirs. 3. Obtaining of additional water resources. With the purpose of deficiency of water resources, caused by intense droughts, it’s recommended to implement activities for artificial increase of precipitations in the separate regions of the basin. Experiments on act- ing upon clouds and cloud systems, carried out by the Institute of Hydrometeorology of the Academy of Sciences of Georgia on mountain areas “Iori”, “Paravani” and “Sevan in east Georgia and Armenia, have revealed the possibility of increase of annual summary precipitations by 10-15%, which, in its turn, can ensure the relevant increase of river flow in the basin.

For the implementation of the above specified measures and activities it’s necessary to create, on the governmental level of the countries, occupying the territory of Kura-Aras basin, the relevant system, which will ensure scientific, practical and operative activities for preservation, protection and increase of the basin’s water resources.

Natural ecosystems will be negatively affected by climate changes, which also will require the implementation of adaptation measures. A lot of attention must be paid to the creation of cultural pastures, for which nutrient grasses will be used. The implementation of irrigational works can ensure the increase of productivity of alpine pastures (in2- 4 fold). At the same time, the effect will be significant, if organic, as well as mineral fertilizers will be introduced into natural nutrient lands. Cultural lands also require the introduction of fertilizers. It’s necessary to restore the degraded ecosystems; for this purpose bio-engineering works are to me done on eroded mountain slopes. With the aim 29 of reduction of negative affects of droughts, everywhere, where the usage of under- ground waters is possible, oases must be created and farms established. Irrigation of winter pastures is recommended, which will help to avoid soil salinity, create cultural hayland pastures.

Strategy of adaptation of forestlands provides for [9]: 1. Creation of systems of monitoring of forest ecosystems with the purpose of evaluation of resistance of plants and phytocenosis towards the expected climatic changes. 2. On the territory of the basin it’s appropriate to mark out the sample forest sites, distin- guished by genetic diversity, high level of endemism, soil-preserving and water- regulating functions, recreational significance. 3. Conservation of species, facing utmost risk of disappearance. 4. Revelation of genetic resources of drought-resistant trees, bushes with the purpose of their usage and selection. 5. Development of projects for renovation and increase of forestland areas, in particular – near industrial centers, where anthropogenic emissions into atmosphere are most significant.

CONCLUSION

1. On the background of global warming the changes of climatic conditions in Kura-Aras river basin have mosaic character. The most significant warming within the basin occurred in Borjomi Gorge, Lower Kartli, Great Caucasus, Kura-Aras lowlands and Nakhichevan AR. The highest meaning of warming in there regions (0.10-0.130С per 10 years) exceeds the evaluations for the Earth on the whole (0.05-0.070 per 10 years). In separate areas of the basin – Lenkoran zone, Javakheti upland region, Inner Kartli and north-east regions of Iran, even cold snap was noted. On the whole, on significant part of the territory during the last century the air temperature has increased by average 0.03-0.06 0С per 10 years.

No leap of regime has been observed. Significant reduction of precipitations (up to 2-12 mm of annual total per 10 years) was noted in west Azerbaijan, less significant – in east Georgia, Kura-Aras lowlands and on the territory of Iran (up to 3 mm), and on Small Caucasus and in Nakhichevan AR the precipitation regime practically has not changed. 2. In XXI c. on the territory of the basin climate warming is expected: according to the existing climate scenarios, annual temperature by the middle of the century will increase by 1.5-2.00С. Annual amount of precipitations will slightly decrease. 3. In the result of the provided statistical analysis of hydrological lines of observations for the past century, on main rivers or separate sections of rivers in Kura-Aras basin, statistically significant reduction of annual flow took place. Certain increase of flow is observed in mountain rivers with significant glacial feeding. It is caused by the fact that the increase of temperature on watershed, even in the circumstances of the observed reduction of precipitations, leads to intense melting of glacier, its degradation and increase of flow. But the performance of evaluation of trends and other statistical calculations do not allow to clearly mark out the natural and anthropological causes of these changes.

For evaluation of sensitivity (vulnerability) of the river flow towards the climate change and determination of flow reaction to climatic variations, mathematical model of formation of annual flow has been used, based on water balance equation. It is showed that according to the most probable climatic scenario, according to which the increase of tem- 30 perature at watershed is 0.5-1 0С, even if precipitations do not change, the flow reduction is to be expected, e.g. for the River Kura – st. Tbilisi – by 5-10%. In an extreme situation, when the temperature increases by 2 0С, and the precipitations make only 10% of the norm, the 50% flow reduction is to be expected.

Evaluations of anthropogenic changes of water resources of Kura-Aras river basin have been performed. At present, water resources of Kura up to Mingechauri are evaluated to be 15.9 km3/year, up to Aras inflow - 18.5 km3/year, on the whole for the basin - 28.2 km3/year, including Aras basin - 9.7 km3/year. It has been established that during the last three decades of the past century the value of anthropological reduction of the river Kura flow varied in the range of 1.5-2 km3/year.

In our opinion, the most probable intensification of the problem of water supply in the countries of South Caucasian Region during coming decades could be caused mainly by the anthropogenic reduction of flow of trans-boundary rivers in the result of construction of water facilities, and partly – influence of climatic changes. The complexity of the situation is connected with the fact, that number of countries has not yet ratified Interna- tional Helsinki Convention on Trans-boundary Water Bodies. After ratification agreements can be prepared between the countries of Kura-Aras basin on water use and distri- bution of trans-boundary water resources, where their physical-geographical, climatic, natural and social-economical peculiarities will be considered. These bi- or multi-lateral agreements must be based on the principle of equitable usage of common water resources by the countries of the region and inter-responsibility for their preservation. 4. In the case of increase of average annual temperature by 1.5-2.0 0С the change of Kura- Aras river basin ecosystem will develop in two directions: transformation of schemes of vertical zoning and significant change of typological structure of ecosystems. In the areas where the precipitations will decrease due to warming, the re-occurrence and frequency of droughts will increase; it will lead to the lessening of areas of woodlands, diversity of dendro-flora, and the specific share of drought-resistant plants will increase. These processes in central and east regions of Great Caucasus and some regions of Small Caucasus can cause significant degradation of alpine pastures. 5. The most vulnerable towards climate changes will be wheat, maize, sunflower, tobacco, sugar-beet, potato. High level of vulnerability of these crops is conditioned by decrease of precipitations connected with warming, increase of re-occurrence of droughts, decrease of soil humidity, etc. which reflects upon the crop capacity indicators. Less vulnerable towards these processes will be vine. 6. In the result of implementation of national projects on climate changes recommendation have been suggested with the purpose of implementation of measures aimed at reduction of negative influence of climate change on economy and ecosystems of the Kura-Aras river basin. These measures include: Creation of drought-resistant, high yield species of agricultural crops (wheat, maize, sunflower, tobacco, vine, etc.) Proper planning and implementation of land treatment. Replacement of spring crops (wheat, barley) with winter crops. Reconstruction, widening and more effective usage of the existing irrigation systems. Creation of integrated system of agricultural management. Scientifically valid information of agrarian community from the point of view of study of the issues of adaptation measures to negative affects of climate changes. Efficient usage of water resources, reduction of the risk of flooding, implementation of activities for artificial increase of precipitations with the purpose of fill- ing the water resources of the reservoirs. Creation of woodlands monitoring system. Conservation of species, exposed to the greatest danger of disappearance. 31 Revelation of genetic resources of drought-resistant trees and bushes. Development of projects of renovation and enlargement of forests.

32 Annex

It is well-known that a river flow represents integral result of joint influence of climatic factors and elements of watershed landscape. In the case of unchangeable landscape the flow com- pletely depends upon climatic factors. That’s why the climatic changes cause the flow reaction and lead to its variations.

In Accordance to [20] we will introduce the notion of sensitivity (vulnerability) of a watershed, as a physical system, when its integral parameter, e.g. flow, yfxxx= (12 , ,...,n ) responds to the change of characteristics of the system x12,xx ,..., n (e.g. precipitations, temperature, humidity, radiation balance, nebulosity, etc.). Sensitivity of the integral parameter or the volume of its reaction to the change of separate characteristic can be defined by means of partial derivative

∂y  ,in= 1,2,..., , ∂x i xx==,..., x x 1100nn where zero indices express basic values of characteristics, included in the physical system, re- ferred to the starting moment of climatic changes. Total change of the integral parameter of the physical system can be calculated by means of total differential n ∂f dy=  dxi , ∑ ∂x i=1 i 0 ∂f where the value of each derivative presents quantitative evaluations of sensitivity of the ∂x i 0 system against the change of i characteristic, and the change of characteristic dxi itself can be defined on the basis of data of empiric lines of observation or it predetermined on the basis of specific scenarios of climatic changes.

The volume of annual flow can be defined by means of mathematical model of flow formation, based on the equation of water balance. In particular, two variants of the model by D. Turk and M. Budyko [18,19] have been considered, which show the interconnection of thermal and water balance in the basin and allow presenting in evident (analytical) way the dependence of river flow on main forming climatic parameters: temperature of air and soil, relative humidity, deficit of humidity, radiation balance, etc. E.g. in the case of usage of the annual flow model, suggested by D. Turk, we have:  L  R = P1 − ,  cL2 + P 2  where R – is the value of flow (mm), P – amount of precipitations (mm) in watershed, L = 300 + 25T + 0.05T 3 , which includes the value of temperature Т0С, с – dimensionless cali- brating constant, defined by climatic norms of temperature, precipitations and flow. For the volume of flow change in the result of temperature and precipitation variations we’ll have ∂R ∂R dR = dP + dT . ∂P ∂T ∂R ∂R The partial derivatives и , included in this expression, defining the flow sensitivity ∂P ∂T against the changes of precipitations and temperature accordingly, can be defined on the basis of the presented model of annual flow formation.

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