RER/03/G41/A/1G/31: Reducing Trans-boundary Degradation of the Kura-Aras River Basin TDA Thematic Report CLIMATE CHANGE AND EVALUATION OF ENVIRONMENT VULNERABILITY IN KURA-ARAS BASIN EXPERTS: N. A. BEGLARASHVILI, E. ELIZBARASHVILI 2006 TABLE OF CONTENT INTRODUCTION ..................................................................................................................................................................3 1. ANALYSIS OF CLIMATE CHANGE .............................................................................................................................5 1.1. HISTORICAL TRENDS OF TEMPERATURE CHANGE DURING THE LAST 50 YEARS IN THE KURA-ARAS RIVER BASIN..........5 1.2. PROGNOSTIC ANALYSIS OF THE TRENDS OF CLIMATE CHANGES FOR THE COMING 30-50 YEARS ...............................13 2. EXPECTED CHANGES IN ENVIRONMENT, CAUSED BY CLIMATE CHANGE IN KURA-ARAS RIVER BASIN....................................................................................................................................................................................16 2.1. IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON RIVER FLOW AND WATER RESOURCES ......................................................................16 2.2. IMPACT ON ECOSYSTEMS (DISAFFORESTATION, DESERTIFICATION) AND BIODIVERSITY...............................................24 2.3. IMPACT ON AGRICULTURE............................................................................................................................................27 3. METHODS OF ADAPTATION FOR MITIGATION OF NEGATIVE IMPACTS ON ECOSYSTEMS AND ECONOMY IN THE BASIN...............................................................................................................................................28 CONCLUSION .....................................................................................................................................................................30 ANNEX..................................................................................................................................................................................33 REFERENCES .....................................................................................................................................................................34 2 Introduction Rivers Kura and Aras represent the main water arteries of the South Caucasus, flowing through the territory of five states – Georgia, Azerbaijan, Armenia, Turkey and Iran. Total length of the river Kura is 1515 km, Aras – the main tributary of Kura – 1072 km. The river Kura basin, total catchment area of which is 188000 sq. m., covers in Georgia – 34700 sq. m., in Azerbaijan – 58000 sq. m., Armenia – 29800 sq. m., Iran and Turkey – 66000 sq. m. The river Aras basin, catchment area of which is 102000 sq. m., covers in Azerbaijan – 18740 sq. m., Armenia – 22090 sq. n., Turkey and Iran – 61000 sq. m. Thus, the system of Kura and Aras rivers is the international river system, about ecological condition of which the above mentioned states should care. Nevertheless, according to the ex- isting evaluations, this system is seriously degraded up to present. The degradation of Kura-Aras basin will obviously go on under the impact of natural and an- thropological factors, if the relevant measures aren’t taken for mitigation of negative affects of these factors. One of the main natural factors, affecting the ecosystem of this basin is global warming. Changing, climate significantly influences natural ecosystems, and all spheres of economy of the countries of the basin. That’s why it’s expedient to consider the problem-solving of the re- gion, related to the change of climatic conditions, in the framework of the whole river system. The Kura-Aras river basin is characterized by complex physical-geographical conditions (fig. 1), which results in diverse types of climate, soil and natural landscapes. In the report the current condition and possible scenarios of change of the climate in the basin are considered, as well as the influence of these changes on water regime of the rivers and wa- ter resources, ecosystem and economy of the region; also, the existing and proposed recom- mendations for mitigation of negative results of the change of climate on the region’s ecosys- tem and economy are considered. The variants of possible variations of climate in the region, analyzed in the Report have been developed on the basis of scenarios of global change of climate, proposed by the World Mete- orological Organization, as well as with the consideration of the results of mathematical model- ing of the total circulation of the atmosphere, in particular, on the basis of 9-level balanced model of the laboratory of hydrodynamics of Preston University in USA. The evaluation of change of the river flowing has been performed in the basis of static analyses of hydrological lines of observation, as well as by means of mathematical model of formation of river flowing – standard methods of international projects. 3 1. ANALYSIS OF CLIMATE CHANGE 1.1. Historical trends of temperature change during the last 50 years in the Kura-Aras river basin The problem of climate change is one of the urgent problems in present-day reality. In contem- porary researches the facts of different-scale climatic variations and changes have been estab- lished, taking place during the whole history of the Earth. During the period of instrumental meteorological observations since the end of the XVIII century some significant variations have been revealed, the most important of which took place during the last decades of the XX c. The main reason of these changes is the anthropological activities, combustion of carbonic fuel; during the last 50 years the rapid increase of carbonic and other greenhouse gases and the increase of global temperature connected with it have been observed. The change of climate can cause very powerful ecological, social-economical and political af- fects for separate regions of the World and for the whole planet on the whole in the nearest fu- ture. That’s why the UN, as early as in 1992 has adopted the framework agreement on Climate Change, and the most of the countries have joined it, including whose of the Kura-Aras basin. The current change of climate generally is evaluated on the basis of data in instrumental obser- vations, carried out by local meteorological services. In the Kura-Aras basin, significant terri- tory of which is occupied by Georgia, Azerbaijan and Armenia, and small territory – by Turkey and Iran, climate changes can be judged about on the basis of materials of researches, per- formed by the scientists of these countries [1-7, 9, 10]. By present time historical trends of change of temperature and precipitations, characterizing the main trends of climate change, have been developed on the basis of meteorological observations. As the result, it was estab- lished that in the conditions of global warming the temperature of air has generally increased, with the exception of Lenkoran zone, separate parts of East Georgia (parts of Javakheti upland region and inner Kartli) and north-east part of Iran, where certain decrease of temperature has been revealed. The historical trends of temperature, presented on the fig. 1.1.1., covering al- most all the past century [1, 2], prove the above stated. For the characterization of intensity of warming or cold snap, climatologists introduce the no- tion of the speed of temperature change during the last decade, which is calculated according to the historical linear trends. The speed of change of global air temperature, average for the Earth, is 0.05-0.07 0С for the decade [25]. In the conditions of the Kura-Aras river basin the speed of change of annual air temperature during the XX century has been changing in the wide range. It could be observed in the Table 1.1.1., where the speeds of change of average an- nual temperature in various physical-geographical conditions of the basin are presented [1, 2, 9, 10]. Fig. 1.1.1. Dynamics of air temperature anomaly (1 average annual temperature; 2 – cold season temperature; warm season temperature) 6 Gyanja 7 Djafarkhana 8 Shusha 9 Tbilisi Table 1.1.1. Average speed of change of annual air temperature during the XX c., 0С/10 лет Point Speed of tempera- Point Speed of tempera- ture change ture change Akhalkalaki -0,01 Djafarkhan 0,08 Akhalstikhe -0,05 Gyanja 0,09 Akhmeta 0,07 Zakatala 0,07 Borjomi 0,11 Nakhichevan 0,06 Gardabani 0,07 Tbilisi 0,05 Telavi 0,04 Gori -0,03 The most significant warming within the basin occurred in Borjomi Gorge, Lower Kartli, on Great Caucasus, Kura-Aras lowland and Nakhichevan Autonomous Republic. Warming in these districts by its rate (0.10-0.13 0С during10 years) exceeds evaluations for the Earth on the whole. In addi- tion, in separate areas of the basin in Javakheti plateau, in Inner Kartli and north-east districts of 10 Iran even cold snap is noted. On the whole, on the most of the territory the temperature during the last century has increased by 0.03-0.060С per decade. On the background of global warming the sharp change of precipitation regime was not observed. It is proved by characteristic historical trends of annual summary precipitations in the basin, pre- sented on fig. 1.1.2. Gianja 11 Nakhichevan 12 In accordance with the conducted research, in most of the districts some changes of annual sum- mary precipitations of different intensity have taken place [2-7, 9, 10]. The speed of decrease made 2-12 mm of the annual summary precipitation for